About India.

One of those rare moments when I generally agree with Valdai boys. So, the vector, the thrust of Makarevich's piece is generally correct. 

However, in recent decades, political challenges have been added to the economic challenges of the especially privileged strategic partnership between Russia and India: Moscow, in particular, is concerned about the rapid uptick in relations between Washington and New Delhi. The comprehensive global strategic partnership between India and the US is a logical outcome of the evolution of Indian politics since the 1990s. At the time, the government of Prime Minister Narasimha Rao began a gradual process of economic liberalisation. The country was to become an attractive target for foreign investment, since there was not enough financial capital domestically. The ‘opening up’ of the Indian economy to foreign investors has continued under his successor Narendra Modi – with the ‘Make in India’ initiative inviting foreign manufacturers to locate their production facilities in the South Asian country. A kind of continuation of the this has been the ‘Self-sufficient India’ (Aatmnitbhar Bharat) programme. On the one hand, it is aimed at achieving technological sovereignty, and on the other, it forces foreign manufacturers to localise their production.

But this argument suffers from what is the same problem which is common for the most "observers" and "researchers" in the field of modern geopolitics--discounting power element and the dynamics of the combined West's decline. This is forgivable for all those good ol' boys and girls from largely abstract and shaped by Western influence in study of economics Russia's "academic" circles, due to their lack of understanding of modern West which never goes beyond platitudes and fictional economic data. Yes, India is trying to get "investment" , but this "investment" is already drying up with the center of economic development, finances and technological advancement inexorably moving to the Eastern Eurasia. 

What Makarevich forgets, of course, is the fact that practically whole military establishment of India is influenced to a different degree by Soviet/Russian military views not to mention vast quantities of Russian military hardware. This matters greatly as is the fact of undeniable Russian-Chinese growth closer along military lines. As SMO has demonstrated, the impact on NATO military reputation is devastating--this fact escaped Makarevich and was inevitable, since I am on record--there is no business for people like him, or Karaganov, or anyone from Valdai who do not have serious professional military-intelligence background even trying to factor this issue in their "research". But it MUST be factored, including the fact of India observing the growth of Russian-Chinese military cooperation and, rather very impressive, growth of mutual trade. 

Of course, India has her own, often very divergent from that of Russia, interests to pursue, but with SMO in progress and a manifest inability of West to maintain the edifice of economic prosperity, order and power, we shouldn't expect dramatic shifts in the balance of power in the Indian Ocean because a lot of it rests not just on "investments" but on the ability to maintain military capability worthy of regional superpower. With the US, West in general, as a supplier of such capability it is impossible. But that is the issue for military professionals to discuss. The fact that I still cannot find REAL academic background of this Makarevich guy, except that he is in RAS and is young, tells you a lot.  I will not go into the issue of a major clusterfuck with India buying (in reality--money laundering) French Rafales, but majority of India's AF, Navy and Ground Forces are Russia-made and in geopolitics the only thing which matters is a raw power. In the end, India never caved in to US demands and signed $5 billion contract for S-400. 

Obviously, Makarevich also doesn't understand what this picture means:

As well as why India cannot let go of this: 

But it will take too much time to explain the meaning of all that to Makarevich and what it means in the larger scheme of things, but he will do himself a lot of good by studying details of Operation Trident. Will India become the first recipient of S-500? Questions, questions.