Lvov Is Having A Party ...

 ... with what looks like Oreshnik. 

What is being hit we will learn later, but recall even a few weeks back a number of people worrying that Trump set up a "trap" for Putin. You cannot set up a "trap" for a side with overwhelming technological advantage. So, decommunization continues. 

To Pete Hegseth, how's that US Air Defense doing, Pete? 

Dmitry Orlov Came Up With A Hypothesis...

 ... about the nature of Oreshnik. He makes only one debatable assumption about the mass of MIRV--it is most likely not 1.5 ton but less, but since the last time I did anything electrodynamics related was about 30 years ago, LOL, I still think that it is very interesting to see this POV. 

Around a century ago it was noticed that when a fast-flying lead bullet or shell hits steel armor, it releases an amount of heat many times greater than the kinetic energy of the projectile (which is half the mass times its velocity squared, E_k=1/2 mv^2) — enough heat to burn a hole right through a steel plate. The reason for this anomaly is the same: electron inertia.

 

The binding energy in the crystal lattice of metals is approximately twice as large as that released during the explosive oxidation of TNT. At first glance, the explosion should not be much larger than that produced by a conventional explosive — about twice as large. The difference is that the time it takes to release this energy is hundreds of times shorter than during the chemical oxidation reaction in TNT and the energy from it is much more concentrated. Because of this, the destructive power of a Coulomb explosion can be 1000 times greater than that of a conventional explosive. Of course, this is not a nuclear explosion: no atomic nuclei are in any way damaged during this experiment. But it is comparable in its effects, which are much greater than what can be achieved using TNT.

 

For a bit of perspective, consider that 1 kg of uranium-235 can in theory (if every single atom of it undergoes nuclear fission) result in an explosion equivalent to 20 million kg of TNT. In reality, uranium is never enriched to 100% U-235 (anything above 90% is considered weapons-grade) and only a few percent of the U-235 have time to participate in a nuclear chain reaction before the whole contraption blows up. More realistically, a 1 kg nuclear charge is equivalent to about a million kg of TNT (or 1 kiloton). Meanwhile, 1 kg of metal in a Coulomb explosion will release energy equivalent to about a thousand kg of TNT (or 1 tonne). Nevertheless, these are still huge numbers.

And now we can address the question of what Oreshnik most likely is. Here is what has been publicly announced about it:

Warhead temperature: 4000ºC

Speed: Mach 10 (2.5–3 km/s)

Mass of warhead: ~1.5 tonnes

Perusing Dmitry Mendeleev's Periodic Table of Elements we find just one candidate for warhead metal: tungsten. It melts at 3422ºC and boils at 5555ºC. Taking the mass of the warhead (which, we assume for the sake of simplicity, consists entirely of a single shaped piece of tungsten) at 1,500 kg, it produces the equivalent of 1,500,000 kg of TNT or 1,5 kilotons — a respectable amount for a small tactical nuke.

It is behind the paywall, but Dmitry gave me permission to quote him, so here it is. Join Dmitry's Boosty account. 

The Creator Of Oreshnik...

 Kovalchuk, the Director of Kurchatov Institute. 

МОСКВА, 27 ноя — РИА Новости. Имеющиеся у России материалы, выдерживающие сверхвысокие температуры, позволили создать комплекс "Орешник" и позволят создать другие виды гиперзвукового оружия, заявил президент Национального исследовательского центра "Курчатовский институт" Михаил Ковальчук.  "Орешник" продемонстрировали на днях. Почему мы это сделали, почему мы всех обогнали? А потому что мы входим в пятерку мировых лидеров. <...> Мы за короткий срок создали гиперзвуковое оружие. А это материалы, которые работали раньше при 1500 градусах, потом при 1800, а эти — при 2000, и мы это сделали, а другие — нет", — заявил Ковальчук "Известиям" на полях IV Конгресса молодых ученых, проходящего на федеральной территории "Сириус".  По его словам, следующим шагом должны стать материалы, выдерживающие 2500-3000 градусов.  "Другие материалы, выдерживающие большие температуры, позволят создать еще более продвинутое оружие. Следующим шагом должны стать материалы, выдерживающие 2500-3000 градусов", — сказал Ковальчук.

Translation: MOSCOW, November 27 — RIA Novosti. The materials that Russia has that can withstand ultra-high temperatures made it possible to create the Oreshnik system and will make it possible to create other types of hypersonic weapons, said Mikhail Kovalchuk, president of the Kurchatov Institute National Research Center. The Oreshnik was demonstrated the other day. Why did we do this, why did we overtake everyone? Because we are one of the five world leaders. <...> We have created hypersonic weapons in a short period of time. And these are materials that used to work at 1,500 degrees, then at 1,800, and these at 2,000, and we did it, while others did not," Kovalchuk told Izvestia on the sidelines of the IV Congress of Young Scientists, which is taking place in the federal territory of Sirius. According to him, the next step should be materials that can withstand 2,500-3,000 degrees. "Other materials that can withstand high temperatures will make it possible to create even more advanced weapons. The next step should be materials that can withstand 2500-3000 degrees,” Kovalchuk said.

 

Good God, 3000 degrees Celsius. So, his statement is the proof that such materials and weapons already exist. What does it all mean? How about Mach=15 sea skimmer, flying at very low altitudes, or MIRVs on intermediate range missiles with Mach=20 with even more devastating impact (including plasma shock) than Oreshnik. There is nothing that can stop it, with the exception of such things like S-300V4 or S-500 and Russia is not selling those. At least not yet. Will see what kind of turkey Russia is preparing for Biden and NATO for Thanksgiving. The NOTAM is issued through November 30.

Larry Explains...

... why Putin looked so... satisfied.