But Why?

I want to immediately state that I am no tank officer, but I am also not as dumb in ground warfare as I come across, if you know what I mean. So, before commenting on The National Interest tanks' rankings, I want to remind you what one of their contributors ... from Israel and ties to IDF wrote this in early 2025:

While the latest T-72 and T-90 MBT variants may be more sophisticated than earlier models, they really have not performed well in Ukraine. The rate at which these tanks have been destroyed by Ukrainian weaponry is alarming. To make matters worse, it is doubtful that Moscow will be able to replenish its MBT stockpiles anytime soon.

Here is her CV and you may have already guessed she--she is a militant ignoramus and hack which spreads 404 propaganda. Judge for yourself--a classic degree mill product with no clue about combined arms operations and operational planning. Judging by the "performance" of IDF (mind you--they are allegedly "professionals") which has its ass handed to it in the most humiliating fashion in Southern Lebanon by Hezbollah, Israel is not that good, to put it mildly, in anything which doesn't involve atrocity, bombing with impunity and, generally, they are nothing more than a collection of punitive battalions (and brigades) whose main training is in genocide. Real war? Not so much. 

So, The National Interest comes up with this recent rating of world's tanks. And puts T-72 at the first place as the best tank in the world. Well, that's fine and here TNI staff makes this assertion:

1. T-72 (Soviet Union / Russia) This old Soviet tank may be seen as an odd choice for “best in the world.” But the fact remains that it checks all the boxes for an effective tank. It is used by dozens of countries, making its supply chains redundant and durable. It is easy to operate. And it is very cheap. The Russians have found that their war in Ukraine has not gone well by using either its T-90M MBT or its aforementioned T14 Armata. The T-72 has kept the Russians in the fight. What’s more, these systems are easy to mass produce and when they’re lost (so many have been lost in combat), it doesn’t really matter, because Russia can quite easily produce many more. 

The immediate question which arises is where the hell did the staff of this magazine, which continues to regurgitate CIA and Pentagon's fairy tales about SMO, get this idea highlighted in yellow? Who told them that? Ukies? Sure, Washington is dumb enough to believe any kind of shit, but how about the fact of basic (forget about serious expanded) attrition modelling of (armor) combat which requires a set of verified serious inputs? That is to say--requires PROFESSIONAL qualifications for assessment of the data sets which ARE critical in 24/7 modelling of the combat, which is in the foundation of the operational work of, say, Main Operational Directorate (GOU) of Russian General Staff? 

We, of course, cannot discount a fever pitch coping ongoing across the US media and military-political circles after yet another military humiliation for the US and Israel, but words do not provide anymore the palliative they used to and, obviously, statements about Russian tank losses (not that Russians do not sustain losses, they surely do) and especially about T-90M Proryv, which IS the best MBT in the world now, are nothing more than trying to shape narrative which has nothing in common with the reality. For starters, Russians use primarily (not exclusively) three types of MBTs: T-72B and its iteration T-72B3, T-90M Proryv and a few T-80BVM. Of course, Russians used even T-54 when necessary as self-propelled guns from ZOP (Defended Firing Position) and as a moving mine with devastating results for VSU strong points. And here is a clue from TNI. Highlighted in yellow is data for T-72 (whatever that means) and in green, of course, M1 Abrams.

The question--what T-72 are they talking about, because T-72B3 and T-72B3M, a mainstay of Russian tank forces, have this:

First batches were upgraded to T-72B3 standard, also known as T-72B3 obr (obrazets--model) 2011 in Russia. Many vehicles retained their V-84 engine. The T-72B3 upgrade includes the 2A46M-5 gun, Kontakt-5 era on glacis and turret front, improved autoloader, Sosna-U gunner's day and thermal sight with monitor for commander and various other upgrades. Easily recognizable by the Sosna-U sight while retaining the rubber side skirts. T-72B3M Further improved upgrade package, also known as T-72B3 obr 2016 in Russia. This adds the large and distinctive new side skirts, slat armor and Relikt ERA to the turret sides. There is also a PK PAN sight for the commander with day and thermal optics. All T-72B3M include the more powerful V-92S2F engine and drivetrain upgrades.

Note: T-72B3 has been produced since 2011 (11 years before SMO) while T-72B3M since 2016 (6 years before SMO). So, how many altogether of this tanks did Russia have--over 1,700. No, not some conservation (reserve) assets--all moving and fighting tanks. But as you can see yourself all of them have a very good and modern sight and fire-control systems. Did Russians use simply T-72Bs? Absolutely, remember the one which blew away Abrams' turret from the first shot? Yep, that's T-72B. 

Hm, why do I see thermal sight, but, back to our goats, so to speak, because, obviously, Russians produced thousands upon thousands (9,000 by different estimates) of T-72Bs and how many have been upgraded to B3? A lot. And then comes another 1,500 or so of T-90s and, its latest iteration of T-90M Proryv. This one is a state-of-the-art fully netcentric machine and it has real and positive combat experience ... yes, look at Abrams' "experience" "Iraq/Afghanistan", while for some reason omitting M1 Abrams "experiences" in 404. Those have been very painful "experiences" both against Russian tanks and against loitering munitions, so much so that whatever the advantages M1 might have had (not really) have been completely annulled and ... 

Nobody gives a shit how much M1 Abrams costs--neither it, nor vaunted Merkava are tanks designed for modern warfare and, pardon my Russian rah-rah and military background, but for people trying to come up with all kinds of rankings--try for starters internalize what COFM (Correlation Of Forces and Means) is and why one may start from this point.

In reality, however, three best tanks in the world today are 1. T-90M Proryv, 2. T-72B3M and 3. T-72B3. The rest is for consumers of Kool Aid provided by Kiev regime. 

This is from yesterday. And yes--one T-90M Proryv took ...47 (Forty Seven!) drone strikes and stopped only when hit the anti-tank mine. 

Yes, And?

Those admissions are important, of course. Especially from The National Interest tabloid which gave the start to all kinds of pseudo-military BSers like Michael Peck, as an example. After the departure of Dmitry Simes as its publisher, the whole rag went US exceptionalist until events overtook narratives. Now they admit:

America has all but thrown in the towel in the great race to achieve hypersonic weapons capability. Not only is China ahead of the United States in this domain, but the Russian Federation is apparently lightyears ahead of both. One such Russian system that is redefining the face of modern warfare is the 3M22 Zircon. This impressive system has now been married to the Yasen-class nuclear-powered submarine, giving the Russians an even more impressive—and lethal—capability.

For some reason they put rendering of Kinzhal above the piece, but in general conclusion is correct, despite the fact that 3M22 Zircon's speed is rumored to be more than M=9 and new generation of such weapons will fly even faster and further than already astonishing range of 1,500 kilometers.

The Zircon has already upset the precarious balance of military power between the United States and Russia. The growth of this system, while the Americans find it difficult to field its own similar system or to create countermeasures against hypersonic weapons, risks ensuring that the Russians enjoy the dominant position. Unless America finds a countermeasure or its own hypersonic weapons, that balance of power with Russia will forever tilt in Moscow’s favor. 

It was always about the balance of power and the myopia of NATO's procurement based on obsolete technological and, hence, tactical and operational views. What is most important, however, in all of this is relentless work by Soviet Union and Russia in developing a reliable and survivable system of both surface and space-based recon and targeting allowing for reliable targeting globally. By 1980s USSR had such a system--MKRC Legenda. Today it is Liana. Here, you can access a superb two-part article (by professionals, no less-Ph.Ds engineers) in Arsenal Otechestva (Arsenal of Fatherland) titled: The Concept of Perfecting of the System of Naval Space Recon and Targeting (in Russian). Part 1 and Part 2. On photo is a good ol' Korall-B from Oscar-II (pr. 949A) SSGNs. 

What they describe already exists and now expands. Plus, modern recon is much more than space-based systems--it is also and even primarily so a sensor (data) fusion across all types of heterogeneous sensors, which provides a reliable resolution of uncertainties. 

Meanwhile, Kiev had a night party today and rocked throughout the night:

At the very end you can see the arrival of either Kinzhal or Iskander and that gives you some idea about why the US has neither real hypersonic weapon nor, what is even more important, any means of intercepting it. Trump was "dissatisfied" with massive strikes by Russia. Well, what can I say ... too fucking bad. 

Butthurt Is Strong on This One ...

The National Interest tabloid cannot give it a rest. They continue to parade their butthurt, or a minute of military porn, LOL))

Visually, the Su-57 is impressive. But the whole purpose of stealth, long-range missiles, and beyond-visual-range detection is that if you can see the enemy with your eyes, you probably did something wrong. Following the fifth-generation showdown at the “Aero India 2025” biennial air show at the Yelahanka Air Force Station, which began last Monday, Russia has continued to hype up its Sukhoi Su-57 (NATO reporting name “Felon”).

Boy, this amateur with degree in journalism (that means he has no real education) is akin to a kindergarten kid who got his candy taken away. Here is his awesome "background", LOL. 

Somebody really has to explain this guy that:

1. So called Stealth is primarily a mythology of the Lockheed it developed to sell this BS F-117 which met ignominious demise from Serbian AD in 1999. So, this Suciu guy obviously doesn't understand that the reduction of RCS primarily in the front semi-sphere is just but one of the measures commonly known as reduction of the physical fields of the platform, not to mention the fact of any Russian AD complex or airborne radar, especially plugged in the combat network, in the US aka CEC--Cooperative Engagement Capability, yes, Russians have analog already well tried in real combat, and neither S-400 nor PESA Irbis on Su-35 or AESA Byelka on Su-57 have any difficulty detecting, tracking and developing firing solution against any "stealth" combat aircraft. I omit here a pathetic range of F-35's arsenal with its AIM-120 AMRAAM with its maximum range of 180 km against hypersonic, 400 km-range R-37 carried by Su-57, Su-35, 30SM and SM2. 

2. There was NO showdown in India. F-35 would disintegrate should it ever try even some parts of the flying routine of Su-57, and I mean literally--it would disintegrate. It is time for fanboys and the graduates of Air Combat University of the Top Gun: Maverick to wake up and try to compare combat proven weapon system against the best NATO AD scoring record air to air kills, with hangar queens of the USAF such as obsolete F-22 and some mediocre at best flying contraption which was made to fight against ... well, someone who has no viable air force. I know, it hurts so badly. But this journo can thank Biden Admin and his colleagues from the whoring "profession" who helped to expose NATO military "power" as that of the paper tiger. So, go on, make my day, punk (c). Ah yes, there was no showdown, Su-57 simply stole the show. 

For Shits And Giggles. 2023.

No, I mean it. Get a load of this, LOL))

Germany’s Leopard-2 Tanks Will Help Crush Russia. The German decision to send tanks to Ukraine is a turning point. It is now clear that Vladimir Putin signed the death warrant of his regime in invading Ukraine.

This is from January 2023. They ARE that stupid and illiterate. I love internet--it documents and saves so much in terms of such a crap, which is an exhibit A of these people having no clue. 

The blunt fact is that Biden is becoming a war president. Putin reckoned he could roll over Biden. He miscalculated. He thought he could sweep over Ukraine in a week. He was wrong. He thought the Western alliance would crack up. Wrong again. No one has done more to revivify the Western alliance than Putin. As the West ramps up military production, he is mired in a conflict that threatens the continuation of his tyrannical rule over Russia. Now that he has inadvertently aroused America from its post-Cold War torpor and unified Ukrainians in their resolve to oppose him, Putin faces a fight to the finish—one that he cannot win. It is now clear that when Putin invaded Ukraine, he signed his death warrant.

Jacob Heilbrunn wrote this high school paper level drivel. I wish I could see his arrogant mug today. But then again, he may not even recognize what hit him due to pathetically low level of education and awareness of American journalism. I love the passage about ramping military production up. Yes, those Abrams tanks are rolling fresh from assembly lines... ah, wait, the US does not produce tanks anymore and, in fact, highly likely fell behind tank development dramatically. In related news (thanks Kazman):

The future of the U.S. Air Force's secretive Mayhem program is uncertain amid a funding issue that could at least lead to a major delay. Mayhem's stated focus has been on demonstrating an air-launched hypersonic air vehicle capable of performing strike and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions, but the apparent demand for this capability within the service at all is now unclear. There could still be interest going forward in certain components of the project, including research and development work on advanced high-speed jet engines. The Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) awarded a contract with a $334 million ceiling for work on Mayhem, including "delivering a larger class air-breathing hypersonic system," to Leidos back in 2022. At that time, the company announced that Calspan, the Draper Laboratory, and Kratos Defense & Security Solutions. were also part of its team to design the Mayhem air vehicle, which it said would be powered by a scramjet engine. The first details about this project emerged publicly in 2020 and The War Zone has been following it closely since then. 

Yes, hypersonics are hard, really hard and this is even before you can manufacture them serially, let alone make them do what they are supposed to do.  

The picture though is cool... Another one bites the dust(c).

Garland Sent Me This.

The National Interest, of course. 

The alleged stalemate in the Russo-Ukrainian war has again brought calls from some quarters for Ukraine to be “realistic” and agree to a land-for-peace deal with the Kremlin. This would abandon citizens to the horrors of Russian occupation and compel the international community to compromise the principles of the rule of law and state sovereignty. In this scenario, no compromises are asked of the Kremlin.

This is the most hilarious piece I read in a long time and the conviction with which these two shysters, who have zero understanding of modern warfare, try to apply the "new" term stasis is risible. Hey, with C.Vs. like that, I am sure they know it all:  

About the Authors

Alexander Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers University, Newark.

Dennis Soltys is a retired Canadian professor of comparative politics specializing in the former Soviet region.

In related news, I have a degree in smoking good vanilla cigars. I am a professor of that.

Some Business To Be Addressed...

1. I'll start with that and will only stress that these are horrifying warriors because their motivation is higher than that of berserkers. Judge for yourself: 

One-tenth of the men in Russia volunteering for the conflict with Ukraine are doing so to escape their henpecking wives, the mayor of the coal-mining town of Vorkuta, Yaroslav Shaposhnikov, has claimed. “Around 10% of volunteers who go to the frontline are going there because their wives probably became accustomed to a decent life… and are nagging, nagging, and nagging,” Shaposhnikov said during an online panel discussion – ‘Open Vorkuta’. The official urged Russian women to provide a solid “rear” for their husbands and support them instead. Shaposhnikov, however, did not elaborate on what his 10% estimate was based on.

You don't want to meet those people on the battlefield because they are afraid of nothing, including death. I assume Russia assembles and trains those men into special crack formations which will deal with the remnants of VSU come the end of the year. Beware! LOL. 

Now to a more serious matter:

2. Somebody posted here the link to Alexander Rogers' superbly acerbic piece on this Liman affair. Here is the link, sadly Google Translate will not completely convey Roger's traditional sarcastic tone but still--worth reading. 

     Liiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiimaaaaaaaan (in Russian)

Try to run it through translator. All Rogers' points are valid. 

3. Where would we have been without the military "expertise" of The National Interest. I am being sarcastic, of course. But this one is worth paying attention to because it may, in the end, reflect both desperation and delusions on part of America's military class. In the piece titled A Ceasefire Can Ensure Ukrainian Independence, David Pyne concludes: 

After the rigged referendums conducted by Kremlin-appointed leaders this week indicated that an overwhelming majority supported unification with Russia, Putin hosted a ceremony at the Kremlin this morning declaring all four Ukrainian oblasts a part of Russia. Annexing these territories will increase Russia’s population by approximately 6 million people and effectively mark the end of Russia’s so-called “special military operation,” which has been a war fought for limited objectives and with a fraction of its armed forces. But the start of a full-scale war against Ukraine after mobilization is likely to be even more destructive and could potentially include some of Russia’s powerful but not yet utilized unconventional weapons, with the objective being the total capitulation of Ukraine.

Ah, yes, of course referenda were "rigged"--by VSU indiscriminate shelling of civilians, atrocities committed by Ukie Nazis and their NATO "instructors" against women, children, old people. Right, it was "rigged" from the git go by effectively committing crimes against humanity against Russophone population in Ukraine but, due to Payne's having M.S in "national security studies" and being a former H.Q. staff officer, he doesn't bother himself with facts and consequences. Moreover, he comes up with this wowser:

Reports indicate that Putin’s partial mobilization will not be limited to 300,000 troops, as the Russian government has misleadingly claimed, but rather 1.2 million military reservists that will be used to overrun Ukraine in a planned winter offensive that could bring an end to the country’s independence by early next year.    

Of course, he merely gives the link, without elaboration on what those "reports" are, because they are directly from... Ukrainskaya Pravda, a tabloid propaganda rag of Kiev Regime, but Payne, following his "education" from the military system which loses all its wars, doesn't mind spreading obvious propaganda BS without even bothering himself with checking the reality, forget about getting acquainted with those mobilization plans of Russia which are openly available (much of them are, of course, classified) to conclude that "1.2 million" IS NOT a partial mobilization. In fact, if Payne has his "degree" in whatever security "studies" he could have, at least, educated himself with basic mobilization documents of Russian Federation such as: 

Федеральный закон от 26.02.1997 N 31-ФЗ (ред. от 14.07.2022) "О мобилизационной подготовке и мобилизации в Российской Федерации"

Translation:  Federal Law No. 31-FZ of February 26, 1997 (as amended on July 14, 2022) "On mobilization training and mobilization in the Russian Federation". 

And mind you, I am not even talking about simple mathematical fact that mobilization of 1.2 million people in Russia would have manifested itself on a scale much much larger (no, not 1.2 mil. divided by 300 thousand= 4 times, no) than what is happening right now, because mobilizing 1.2 million soldiers as opposed to 300,000 IS NOT 4 times larger, it is a different type and scale of mobilization, including what amounts to enlisted personnel in existing Armed Forces. But Payne, obviously, never studied those things for his degree and while serving in whatever the H.Q. he served in. 

After that, he describes "conditions" which may "preserve" 404 not understanding that we all long ago left the world of wishful thinking and PR and are into serious business of dismantling Pax America in which Ukraine is but one of the fronts of this titanic struggle and it is all about demolishing existing combined West whose elites, quoting Vladimir Putin, are satanic. Kiev regime is a homicidal Nazi org, supported by the US and US military, and now the US will have the stamp of enablers of Neo-Nazism and let it live with it. After all, main US Army "hero" and allegedly "tank genius" General Patton considered Russians to be subhumans and, I think, this tradition is being preserved. Frankly, I don't know why this rag by Dmitri Simes even exists--it is an Exhibit A of a complete intellectual collapse of whatever passes in the US for geopolitical views and it is a sorry spectacle. 

But I wanted to make you aware of that, and, judging by the other wave of Ukie bots spreading fake news and exhibiting their ever increasing butt-hurt, they should. Because today Constitutional Court of Russia approved signed documents on four obalsts joining Russia and in this teeny-weeny piece of news that all four oblasts will join Russia within administrative borders which existed since the moment of their creation--you know, in USSR (in Russian). But that is just legalistic mambo-jumbo. Liiiiiiiiiiiiiiiimaaaaaaan.   

Dreams In the End of Summer.

Not that it is not expected, it is fully expected. 

Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer called on Sunday for the EU to impose a cap on power prices and decouple electricity charges from the price of gas. The Austrian leader said failure to do so would let Russian President Vladimir Putin “determine the European electricity price.” "We must finally stop the madness that is taking place in energy markets. And that can only happen through a European solution,” read a statement from Nehammer’s office. “Something has to happen at last. This market will not regulate itself in its current form. I call on all the EU 27 to stand together to stop this price explosion immediately.”

I have news for Nehammer--there cannot be "European Solution" to anything, because Europe, with some few exceptions, is not a subject of modern geopolitics. We can discuss reasons for this state of the affairs in Europe until hell freezes over, but I am on record for years that EU is America's lunch, period. This is not to say that this will extend America's lifespan greatly, but that was the plan from the git go. I think EU leaders should concentrate on believing Ze's promises and act accordingly:

President Vladimir Zelensky said in his daily evening address on Sunday that Ukraine will recapture Donbass, which is now almost fully seized by Russian forces. “We have not forgotten and will not forget any of our cities and any of our people,” he said. “Now Donbass is almost destroyed by Russian strikes, devastated. The proud and glorious Ukrainian Donetsk was humiliated by the Russian occupation and robbed. But Ukraine will return. For sure. Life will return. The dignity of the people of Donbass will return. The ability to live will return. The opportunity to live safely and happily,” Zelensky added. According to him, this is what the Ukrainian flag will symbolize “when we set it up in Donetsk, Gorlovka, Mariupol, in all cities of Donbass, Azov area, in all areas under Russian occupation – in Kharkov, Zaporozhye, Kherson regions. And definitely in Crimea.” “Ukraine remembers everything,” he concluded.

No? Doesn't work anymore? Who would have thought? I think EU should also support Kiev's space exploration ambitions and its Artificial Intellect research (I kid, I kid, none exists in 404) because present intellect of EU in particular, and West in general, can be easily substituted with 8 bit Atari program and it will still do better. Which, speaking about such sewer as The National Interest rag, get a load of that--an "analysis" from a typical BSer in polit-sci who laments a tsunami of pseudo-military crap which dominates US SMO narrative from the git go, which demonstrates utter incompetence of Pentagon and US "intel", but this guy, obviously, has issues with reality of modern warfare (hint: 99% of people in D.C. and Arlington have) and he cries out:

Take, for instance, the purported certainty in the West that Russia’s military sought to conquer a heavily populated and fervently nationalistic country nearly the size of Texas—and initially, intended to do so in a matter of days, no less. This belief is entirely baseless. In fact, even the U.S. military is incapable of pulling off such a feat in that little time. And yet, the falsehood, which formed the West’s perception of Russia’s intentions, remains unabated. So too is Washington’s incessant deflection of holding any responsibility for provoking the invasion, despite its ubiquitous and escalatory involvement in the precipitating crisis.

Seriously? I have news for this "scholar of warfare", the United States never conducted anything close to the likes of SMO, against the actual standing army of 600,000 while having a force three times smaller and judging by "even the US military" triumphs in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, with a short break for turkey shoot against backward Saddam's Army and the performance of the US military technology in the REAL war environment in a complex terrain, which is dismal, this use of copium is rather silly. The fact that the US hasn't won any serious military campaign since Korea is, obviously, not a fact known to the author, which is not surprising for the US "geopolitical" rag which still publishes this shit:

U.S. Javelins Are Stopping Russia’s Armored Advance in Ukraine.

Yes, the US "expert" community today is nothing more than a collection of parasites who lack understanding of the subject matter, but if it is forgivable to such clown as Kris Osborne, when US generals continue to humiliate themselves publicly by spewing amateurish pseudo-military BS, it is a whole other matter. The depth of ignorance is such, that, as it became known, those people in Pentagon and "intel" thought that Russian Army would use... chemical weapons in SMO. They believed it. It is a systemic institutional failure, which cannot be addressed without redesign of the whole system. 

Russian troops in Ukraine are “exhausted” and may “crack” before the year is out, according to a retired US army general. Ben Hodges, who served in both the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, disagreed with predictions that the conflict could extend into drawn-out war of attrition.

Do I need to explain now why the US cannot fight a real war? With military leaders like that, who needs enemies. But then again, Hodges doesn't know what real war is, they don't teach this anymore in US military academies. How could they--that means a de facto admitting being a loser. I will expand on military education in the West later. Ben Hodges is one such "example".

Now I Saw It All.

For starters--I love this guy. He is amazing in his grasp of Dune epic and is joy to listen to. I am subscribed to his channel on Youtube and went today to get my updates on the new Dune movie.  

And while enjoying it I was dropped to the floor by discovering that The National Interest which was turning into tabloid for years now got itself into the... Dune universe. Get a load of this:

Here is the big disconnect between us and Dune. Our future is inextricably intertwined with technology. Unless the screenwriters can figure out how to bridge that divide, Dune will be no more relatable than the dragons in the Game of Thrones. In the real world, how we handle technology could dramatically impact the course of great power competition. If those challenges are woven into the film, it might well provoke some serious thinking about our future—making the movie truly great science fiction.

Oh, goodness, no "technology" in Dune, like faster than light space travel, which sure as hell doesn't qualify as "technology", right? Obviously lack of computing power wiped out in a Butlerian Jihad somehow should make, in accordance to the author:

Otherwise, we’ll have to hope it has terrific special effects and a music score equal to what John Williams produced for Star Wars. Lacking that, Dune is destined to be another crashing bore, because the actual characters in the story are not very relatable or likable.

Evidently, former Lt.Colonel James Carafano, doesn't understand the difference between cosmic fairy tale of Star Wars, which lobotomized Sci-Fi genre (not to mention borrowing heavily from Dune, admitted by none other that Lucas himself) and actual Sci-Fi which Dune, certainly, is. Not to mention that relatability of Dune to modern movie-goers is absolutely irrelevant here--Dune is not for consumers of woke Star Wars, Wonder Woman and other woke and talent-less PC shit being poured over the heads of infantile cretins who never left their childhood even when in their 30s. If they don't get it--fvck them, life will (already) teach them a serious social lesson on how to relate to real manhood, or femininity, sacrifice, friendship and love, things these people hardly know about. 

Dune is not for them, it is for those who appreciate real life, with all its complexities and, often, horror, conveyed through what arguably could be called the Sci-Fi equivalent of War and Peace which is classic for a simple reason--remaining relatable for normal people throughout centuries, with or without smart-phone in their hands or ability to grasp how firing solution is developed in missile, because it is the story of a human, in the end. But I am sure Mr. Carafano is aware of that, right? For everything else, there is Star Wars. After all we all can make it to the movie theater in less than 12 parsecs. 

Some Fast Geopolitcal Thoughts On The Run.

I seldom mention The National Interest as an expert publication--it is not--but when Colonel Daniel Davies or Douglas Macgregor publish their thoughts there I read them. So, Douglas Macgregor is Breaking The Phalanx yet again when states in his TNI's piece that:

Trump knows that the American Empire is crumbling. What is he going to do about it?

He then elaborates: 

Last week, President Donald Trump directed his cabinet secretaries to cut 5 percent from their budgets for the next fiscal year, signaling a potential a 2.2 percent cut in defense spending. Trump specifically mentioned the defense budget saying, “I made deals with the devil in order to get that done because we had to improve our military. Our military was depleted. It was in bad shape.”

Translation: Get ready. “America first” in foreign and defense policy is about to begin. Defense cuts are on the way. The cuts aren’t coming as the result of a dispassionate Eisenhower-style strategic defense review or because current defense funds are being squandered on equipment and forces we don’t need. They are coming because the international system has changed and the U.S. government is sliding deeper into debt .

And finishes with a doom-spelling scenario for Pentagon bureaucrats who already arranged their retirement on executive boards and "consultant" sinecures of Military Industrial Complex big corporate movers and shakers:

Whether the generals and admirals like it or not, the U.S. Armed Forces will be compelled to reorganize and “right-size” for the United States’ real security needs without the inefficiencies and massive overhead in the current force structure

Let's be very honest--much of the American military in the second half of the 20th and especially 21st century was built around US Dollar as a main global reserve currency. In fact, the world largely financed US economy and, with it, its military through what (strangely how coincidental with Macgregor's today's piece) Ivan Danilov in Ria calls America's Absolute Weapon--a US Dollar Vacuum Cleaner (in Russian). This weapon is broken, it was for some time, just not everybody wanted to hear (or read) about it. The chickens, however, are coming home to roost. I've been preaching this gospel openly since 2014, including the fact that real American economy, while still large, is much smaller than it is officially presented.

So, the main issue thus is what is the "right size" of the US military? It is an extremely difficult question to answer since, before this question could be answered, a much larger one must be asked--what REAL national interests of the United States of America are. Good luck answering this one against the background of a complete mental breakdown of a nation--courtesy of its so called "elites". But this question MUST be answered. I know only part of this answer. And that brings us to another point--I am finishing John Mearsheimer's latest The Great Delusion, and while I am sympathetic to Measheimer's brand of Realism, I still have some huge issues with the way some of his argument is presented. How about him repeating Fukuyama's ignorant statement that Liberalism as system defeated Fascism. Really? Then there are other things related to the issues of power, but I will make a very brief review of the book later. 

It is clear in the nearest future that America will become poorer, in fact the progress towards a much more frugal and less "wealthy" existence is tangible. The signs of it are everywhere and material expression of an American Dream is long dead. What's left is a fight for what remains of an American soul, there is still a lot of good what remains but it is different America, not of the large urban centers. We all here either avoid Balkanization with as little blood as possible or the country will break up and then we will have a gigantic issue of some, far from benevolent, newcomers fighting for control of the American vast nuclear arsenal. It is a nightmarish scenario globally. I am about to go out on a limb and propose--get Trump this last chance, let him (well, GOP) retain majority after mid-terms, then, after that, we will pass a final judgement. It is obvious that Democrats are going to plunge country into the civil unrest and, possibly, civil war if they bring their suicidal plans to fruition. In that case the issue of cuts will be the least of the problems for all of us.    

Another UTTER uber BS

I have no respect for The National Interest magazine nor for pseudo-military (and pseudo-scientific) BS it spreads. I also view (in)famous Jane's with a great deal of irony, politely speaking--these were the guys, who on the eve of Debaltsevo disaster were spreading Ukronazi propaganda about how the victory for criminals in Kiev was at hand. But I DO respect Royal Navy.  It is a Navy with glorious history and one which, actually, has the experience, however bloody, with modern naval combat--a true, however limited, one. So, when I read this: 

"NATO submarines are seeing “more activity from Russian submarines than we've seen since the days of the Cold War,” Royal Navy Vice Adm. Clive Johnstone, commander of NATO's Maritime Command told IHS Jane’s. He added that NATO submarines are encountering “a level of Russian capability that we haven't seen before.”

NATO's Nightmare: Russian Sub Activity Rises to Cold War Levels

I understand that neither Mr. Majumdar nor TNI's staff  know what Коэффициент Оперативного Напряжения--КОН (Coefficient Of Operational Tension (Strain)) is, but I fully expect Royal Navy's Vice Adm. Clive Johnstone to know that. Let me elaborate:

КОН, to put it in layman's lingo, is the ratio of the days a ship is on the combat patrol (at sea) to the number of days in a year. So, when we say that this coefficient is 0.5 it means that the ship is in the sea for 365/2=182.5 days. It is one of those operational coefficients which are considered strongly when planning combat training and operations in the sea (ocean). Yours truly had experiences with KOH=0.7, while I also knew some conduits for suffering who had this greater than 1. Yes, I know and their family life was not exactly exemplary. Now, consider this: even a brief excursion into Wiki, gives us a number of the Cold War Soviet Submarine Fleet for 1990 at:

Soviet Navy 

63 ballistic missile submarines
72 cruise missile submarine
64 nuclear attack submarine
65 conventional attack submarine

--------------------------------------------

264 subs of all types.

Now a military "secret".... drum roll....the KOH for Soviet subs varied. For example, for older SSBNs (boomers) of Delta-I class it could be as low as 0.2, meaning that this class was on patrol only for 73 days out of 365. It means that while some subs were on patrol, others were in the dock or in refit. For younger Deltas-III (667 BDR) or even younger Delta IVs (667 BDRM) the KOH could be higher, sometimes substantially higher. As per multipurpose Victors-III (671 RTM) or Akulas (971) this KOH could be even higher. And then were those SSKs--that is a separate story altogether. So, in order for us to be objective, let us assume a very low KOH=0.3 for all classes of Soviet Cold War subs. Let's multiply: 264 x 0.3 = almost 80. This means, that NATO navies had to deal with 80 Soviet subs on patrol every day, from Soviet littoral to Pacific and Indian Oceans. Which rings about right for this old fart cold warrior like me. FYI, US Navy's boomers had a higher KOH, as an example. 

Now, going back to Wiki, for the Russian Navy:

Russian Navy

60 subs of all types. Let us assume KOH for those of 0.4 (newest types are still on trials). Well, you know the answer, don't you? 60 x 0.4 =24, and even this number is way too generous. In reality, it is smaller than that, probably about 20 at best. So, if Admiral Clive Johnstone thinks that having 4 times less combat patrols is comparable to "the days of Cold War", I don't know, really. But it is in the open and fanboys of all colors will get on it shortly. Meanwhile, life is full of BS and there is NO reason whatsoever to propagate even more of it, especially when detached from the larger framework of doctrines (in Russian Navy's case--of Sea Denial) and operations. As per Russian subs--yes, they are pretty good but then again, what did they expect--that Russian Navy would fight with 14" guns and steam? No, really........

    

  

I Finally Earned The Honor.

I finally earned the honor of being banned from The National Interest discussion boards for pointing out obvious--utter incompetence, including that of Dmitri Simes, in the issues related to Russia. It is difficult to deny the history of amateurish journalism, name dropping and reducing the outlet to the Top-5 whatever they find "hot" at the moment, I guess Top-5 Kardashian moments or Top-5 Cutest Dogs are coming. I usually do not go to TNI that often, nor do I post there often either, especially as of late but my reaction to Simes' article

 

Obama’s Dangerous “No War, No Peace” Strategy in Syria 

 

was simple. I simply asked those "strategists" (Simes included) to stop pretending that they know or understand anything when it comes to Russia's military-political developments. They are, in fact, utterly unqualified to pass any judgment on that. I just pointed that out, including the fact that US has NO strategy. The reaction was interesting.

 

I was contemplating a bit what to write on that when some people sent me the link to this superb piece by Michael Brenner:

"MOSCOW NIGHTS IN LATAKIA'

 

This saves me the work of explaining the sewer level at which this whole US Russia "expert" community is.

 

"The swift Russian intervention into Syria exacerbates every one of the contradictory elements in Washington’s various, unintegrated Middle East policies. That is one reason for the unexpected moves by Putin are deeply unsettling. They not only add a major variable, but that factor also involves a self-willed player ready and able to take initiatives which are not predictable or easy to counter. An already fluid field of action, thereby, is rendered even more turbulent by orders of magnitude. Another, related reason is that since the United States has no comprehensive strategy, the repercussions of the Russian actions, military and political, are generating a piecemeal reaction that finds it difficult to gain any intellectual or diplomatic traction in each policy sphere. Theoretically, these developments should highlight the need for such an overarching strategy by underscoring the costs of not having one. There is no evidence, though, of that happening within the Obama administration – or within the American foreign policy community generally.  Why? In addition to the manifest lack of aptitude for such an undertaking, the kinds of conceptual adjustments indicated by the Russian intervention touch on highly sensitive questions of America’s status and mission in the world  which its political elite is unprepared to engage."(c)

 

 Couldn't have said better myself.  This, plus the obvious fact that no number of emigres, such as Simes and current sources they have in Russia (that is mostly in the same old ultra-liberal Moscow Parnassus), will change a simpe fact of Russia-American relations--American side simply has NO meaningful knowledge of Russia. So, here I am, banned and in exile;-),  but this still does not change the simple fact that no person of real decision-making position or power in Russia will communicate anything of value or substance (except for the media-cliches and general policy statements) to any Western "analysts" or "journalist". It is over, the West committed cultural suicide in Russia. So, in conclusion, Brenner again:

 

"These compounded frustrations lie behind the incandescent outrage at Russia’s temerity by American officials and the entire commentariat. The latter category includes highly regarded veteran “Sovietologists” like Strobe Talbott (former high official and now head of the Brookings Institution) and David Remnick (author of excellent books on the break-up of the Soviet Union and now editor of The New Yorker) whose supposed intimate knowledge of Russia is belied by the tenor of their emotional anti-Putin diatribes at once simplistic and at variance with the facts. Americans are reacting erratically to omens of the country’s mortality as global hegemon. 
One never should underestimate the extent to which belief in American exceptionalism/superiority sustains collective and individual self-esteem."

 

 

The Phrase Of The Week.

I do not hold Kissinger in very high regard, but I give him credit where it is due--he is one of the true elders of world's foreign policy (he even appeared in Pink Floyd's visualization of The Dark Side Of The Moon) and he saw a lot. No one can take it from him and from his "brand" of realism (it is known fact that Brezhnev and Nixon were fairly good, if not friends, at least, partners). Kissinger also miscalculated dramatically on the outcome of the Cold War--it was USSR, not USA, which collapsed and none other than Elmo Zumwalt had issues with Kissinger's position on the issue of US decline, at least in 1970s. But, this old fox of world's politics delivered a striking accusation of the US suicidal policies this week in his interview to The National Interest:  

The Interview: Henry Kissinger 

"Kissinger: If we treat Russia seriously as a great power, we need at an early stage to determine whether their concerns can be reconciled with our necessities. We should explore the possibilities of a status of nonmilitary grouping on the territory between Russia and the existing frontiers of NATO. The West hesitates to take on the economic recovery of Greece; it’s surely not going to take on Ukraine as a unilateral project. So one should at least examine the possibility of some cooperation between the West and Russia in a militarily nonaligned Ukraine. The Ukraine crisis is turning into a tragedy because it is confusing the long-range interests of global order with the immediate need of restoring Ukrainian identity. I favor an independent Ukraine in its existing borders. I have advocated it from the start of the post-Soviet period. When you read now that Muslim units are fighting on behalf of Ukraine, then the sense of proportion has been lost.

Heilbrunn: That’s a disaster, obviously.

Kissinger: To me, yes. It means that breaking Russia has become an objective; the long-range purpose should be to integrate it."

The rest is pretty much a derivative of that. Why and how so--is a separate issue, which is worth discussing, including these, oh ever so illusive, US "necessities", but give good ol' Henry high five here--he nailed it. The word is in the open, it is so much easier to speak about it now, after all Obama's neocon "girls" are not even in the same league (not even close) than Henry Kissinger, whether you like him or not.