While much is being said about Arctic Sea Route and its economic viability, what many bean counters (totally expected from people with MBA) from all kinds of "economic think-tanks" forget is that Arctic Sea Route is critical for Russia herself, international economic significance of this route notwithstanding. But same as with warfare, it is difficult to explain to average "economist" who grew up and was indoctrinated with all kinds of pseudo-economic BS such as "capitalization", stock market and futures, what national security is for such a nation as Russia, which cannot be measured in Rubles only. Mind you, Russians seldom mention costs of anything. In the West--the ONLY thing they emphasize is price. E.g. $13.5 billion aircraft carrier, $2.1 billion bomber etc. as if costs and price make it anymore combat capable.
Well, those $1 billion Patriots discredited themselves so much, that Switzerland now considers alternative systems.
Well, it is not only about delays, it is because of a humiliating "performance" by the US-made AD (and other hardware). Not that European-made Aster-family missiles and their platforms, such as SAMP-T are any better, both are failures in real war--they are the same dung as American systems, but Swiss do not have options. There is a lot to unpack in terms of military production in the West, but as we all know--most of it is about PR. But that are Swiss' problems, aren't they?
... the International Forum on Transportation and Logistics. The man himself addressed it (turn on captions).
You all know what this is all about. This thing.
And, of course, this thing.
Here is the issue, while blue and green lines are nothing more than wet dreams with zero technological capability attached to them, the red ones are actual routes and the cargo traffic increases steadily.
Or, as Russians report in actual numbers (million tons):
But projected numbers (in green) will grow even more, now that everyone see what the US represents. Those Russian North Sea Fleet ships and subs guarding this artery feel really good, if you know what I mean.
Translation:It would be foolish to hope that, having played out and abandoned Ukraine, the American elites will stop putting pressure on Russia.Objectively speaking, this pressure is their only hope to delay their end a little longer.The next hot spot where the Americans plan to climb in with their feet is located in a very cold region - this is the Arctic, our Subpolar region.New icebreakers are already being built, NATO exercises are regularly held in the subpolar zone, and American aircraft carriers ply the northern seas.Norway, Sweden and Finland - the northern flank of the alliance - are being heavily trained to confront Russia."NATO should increase its presence in the Arctic," says Jens Stoltenberg.The mouthpiece of the American military The Washington Post recently reported that the Arctic is becoming a zone of the Great Game - that is, the strategic confrontation between the Anglo-Saxons and Russia.
The piece is good in general since gives the background of the issue of the Arctic Sea Route and a sort of panic which sets among arctic nations of Europe, to the point that they are trying to convince Washington (good luck with that, LOL) that things are not as bad:
Obviously, it is stable since Russia has no interest in dealing with Scandinavia, as Finns are now learning the hard way. But, Russia sure as hell readies to defend her Arctic possessions. For that she already has the tools, while NATO doesn't. The issue is not only ice-breakers, where Russia is in the league of her own, especially in nuclear ice-breakers.
Here is Ivan Papanin of pr. 23550 fitting out:
Here is Purga for Russian Coast Guard getting ready:
And this is how they will look like upon completion with those lovely 3M54 and 3M14 Kalibrs installed on them.
These are respectable ice-breakers of almost 7,000 ton standard displacement which make similar Norwegian patrol ice-breaker Svalbard with its 57-mm gun look like a leisure vessel.
And all this only as far as combat ice-breakers go, the rest: surface and submarine forces of the Northern Fleet and massive combat air, air defense and coastal component--it is not even fair to compare, including US and Canada's capabilities combined. Recall, that Russian Northern Fleet is not JUST the fleet anymore, it is now a whole military district onto itself. Once one considers the fact of the US Navy's SSNs having some serious issues with readiness, while Russia builds up her submarine component in Arctic, it becomes clear that any attempts to challenge Russia in Arctic are bound to run into the problems from the get go. There is simply not enough tools for that. Simple as that. After all, one doesn't go hunting for bear with a kitchen knife.
I don't buy for a second all those Russian-China economic "integrationism" arguments, despite obvious attempts by China and Russia to form some sort of common Eurasian market. Russia and China are neighbors and economic... competitors. But, right now many Russian-Chinese broad economic, social, scientific and military contacts make total sense in a face of unruly and ungovernable United States. In fact, those are only natural. Yet, there is one item on Russian-Chinese agenda which sets Russia apart from everyone else for China. As South China Morning Post notes in its opinion piece:
Pay attention to the highlighted, as well as rather realistic assessment by this very same South China Morning Post in this title of its other analytic piece.
A-ha, warmer now. In continuation of my yesterday's piece on competitiveness and a series of my articles on this issue (such as this one), I suggest to pull back a bit and try to take a look at a larger picture. No, I am not talking about a Huawei affair dominating current headlines all over the world, I am talking about things even more important than US-China trade war--I am talking about fundamental conditions which will allow China to win this war. But first let's talk about conditions which already now prevent China from winning such a war. I wrote also, not for once, about it--China is not competitive with the United States where it really matters, Shipping Lanes Of Communications (SLOCs), especially Indian Ocean SLOCs, which are crucial for China's trade. PLAN is simply not a competitor for US Navy in the open ocean. For now. When and IF (I stress it--IF) PLAN will be able to compete with the US Navy underneath the waves, until then the Arctic looms large, very large, for China's sea trade. If the United States, in the feat of desperation (it is possible, but who knows how probable) decides to cut China's Indian SLOCs before a bulk of Chinese trade is removed within Eurasian landmass, the whole Huawei affair will look like a fart in the hurricane.
The time is ticking away. Enter Russia, the issue here is not just Russia's massive, largest and most advanced ice-breaker fleet in the world, it is the fact that Russia develops her Arctic at a break-neck speed, developing both civilian and military infrastructure, including building fully operational airfields capable to base latest in Russian ASW/Patrol Aviation such as IL-38Ns and full blown Air Defense (S-400, S1, the works, a whole shebang) areas such as Kotelnyi Island, which pretty much explains what is Russia up to in terms of her capabilities in this very Arctic and why it will be almost impossible to rival those by anyone from USA to Canada, to China, not to speak of Norway. Considering also the way Russia treats her submarine forces, one may easily see that Northern Sea Route will be defended extremely well. So, there is very little, in fact zero, doubt that China is very interested in this route, because unlike in the Indian Ocean where US submarine forces may run rampant against China's marine commercial traffic and PLAN will have a hell of a time trying to do much about it, Arctic Route is a different game--friendly Russia is there and Russia's combat and patrol aviation, and submarine forces will be able to keep this SLOC opened for China, not for free, of course.
Add now also a purely geopolitical aspect here. China only now begins to experience what Russia has an unrivaled experience in--a serious stand-off against major power(s). Russia's game till now was huge militarily--from Ukraine, to Syria, to Arctic, to new weapons systems, Russia is in a kinetic mode non-stop. China is yet to make a full claim to real superpowerdom and for that she needs Russia and her immense military potential, capable to defend most of Eurasia against any attempt on Eurasian integration. China doesn't have such capability and so the dance between comrades Putin ans Xi continues. No, of course, both men have excellent relations which can be called friendship, but Putin knows damn well that China needs Russia now in a really big way, including this very important moral support factor, which can be described in boxing terms as old experienced trainer patting his new talented protege, title challenger, on the back before his fight with an intimidating champion and telling him: "Don't worry, son. You'll be OK". People who underestimate an immense importance of this moral support factor in international relations, they know very little about international relations. Enough to take a look at an insatiable American appetite for "high moral ground" and to be admired. Look what happened once this moral ground was lost--it is in a front of your eyes.
So, China can win only with Russia's help which is expressed apart from, already mentioned, moral support factor in being cooperative with China's supply lines and throwing around Russia's significant economic and immense military weight. China, unlike the United States, does have geopolitical currency "to buy" Russia. But as any seller who knows a real value of what he (or she) sells, Russia will ask a "fair" price and China will agree. The world now needs Russian-Chinese close cooperation and, possibly, some form of a formal alliance, while transitioning into new geopolitical and economic paradigm. But as never before, it becomes clear that two great cultures and empires are on the even footing vis-a-vis each-other, far from wet dreams by many Western "analysts" predicting for Russia a complex of "junior partner" in relations with China, when in reality it is Russia who went to hell and back in 20th and 21st century who has a well earned privilege to pass judgements on how China may come of age as a true superpower by means of facing off with her largest foe. But then again, did China even have options other than getting together with Russia whose energy and military power is and will continue to be one of the drivers of Chinese successful entrance into the ring with the United States for a real fight? I don't think so. After all, as Marx stated--the freedom is a comprehended necessity.
P.S. Meanwhile, the video of the assembly of the first serial SU-57s.
I am sure very many arm-chair aerospace "analysts" are about to make their "opinions" heard;))
