Saturday, December 12, 2020

On "Messages".

Andrei Raevsky (The Saker) wrote a superb piece NATO and EU sending "messages to Russia", in which he states:

Russians are keenly aware of that and are merely doing their due diligence by responding to NATO's "messages" with their own, such as today, with Vladimir Monomakh demonstrating that it has zero problems launching four Bulava's from Pacific towards the West, namely from the bastion in the Sea of Okhotsk at the range Chizha in Arkhangelsk region, way-way within the 9,000 kilometers (official) range of Bulava SLBMs.  

Just a reminder, RSM-56 Bulava carries between 6 to 10 MIRVs, each 100-150 kilotons, which with a clinical accuracy can reach any European capital even when launched by Pacific Fleet SSBNs. In fact, if to consider that four Bulavas have been launched in a very tight sequence, we are looking at 4x6=24 or 4x10=40 MIRVs reminding European part of NATO that rearranging stones in Europe could be done by a wide variety of methods if NATO decides to commit a suicide. So, the message for Europeans (that is why a direction of the salvo--from East to West) is clear. This is the first such a salvo from Project 955 Borei SSBN in terms of shooting Bulavas from East to West. As results show--they fly just fine and hit targets as expected. 

Andrei arrives to a correct conclusion:

At the core of it all, there is a cultural difference: Europeans (and nevermind their US bosses!) are not really afraid of war. That is why they are not really prepared for it at all. The Russians are very, very afraid of war, because they know and remember it. This is why the West is all threats and no action, while Russia is all actions and no threats. From the Russian point of view, the best way to avoid war is to really, really prepare for it. One could argue that 1000 years of Russian history were a never ending lesson in preparation for war, especially since most wars fought by Russia were existential.  

I will only add to it, that the fear of war in Russia grows with understanding of the fact that Western "elites" are a bunch of clowns who, far from knowing what war is, do not even have a grasp of basic governing principles. They, sure as hell, are very good at creating laughable doctrines, be that in economic or military fields, but in practice they are proverbial monkeys with the grenade. So, in this case, reminding those elites, be them sitting in Brussels or in D.C. that should they do a stupid thing they will be blown to smithereens, everything and everyone dear to them included, is one of the first orders of business for Russia. As Al Capone used to say "You can get much farther with a kind word and a gun than you can with a kind word alone." Simple as that, especially when you have to deal with desperate retards who are guided by a variety of psychiatric disorders because they can not get their way. Plus, how you make any conversation, forget signing any treaties, with the country which cannot even elect its president without total corruption and subversion of electoral process? Who do you talk to? 

Main issue today is the safety of the US nuclear arsenal, because the possibility of US literal disintegration into several states, or localities, is by now means excluded. Hopefully this will not come to that, but even if Biden is declared POTUS, his "foreign policy team" is Obama's team and these are utterly unqualified people with little skills but, surely, very high opinion about themselves, as it is generally the case with most American politicos, who are, as a rule, very uncultured and badly educated. The trend on deterioration of the "quality" of the elites is very pronounced and that means a steady lowering of the awareness threshold in so far as the recognition of the factors leading towards possible war goes among US decision-makers. This is a problem for Russia's military-political top--American elites are not rational, as Dmitry Orlov correctly points out. So, we have to wait and see how this whole third-worldization of America plays out. Meanwhile, one has got to do what one has got to do and respond to messages with messages of its own. In fact, as Russians say (in different iterations)--we don't need your respect, we are fine with you fearing us. I agree, even the most insane patients can recognize the feel of a baton of the orderly in the asylum when it hits their limbs or backs. And that is good enough for now, everything else is after the patient is locked up in the padded room, then the course of treatment could be discussed.

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