As you all know, I hate speculations. But, this is one of those cases where I want to give some context. It is JUST the context, nothing more. It shows the area where RKR Moskva, near Zmeinyi Island, was prior to the event and it shows the range to both Ukraine and Romania's shores.
It goes without saying that the range between 20 to 50 nautical miles from the shore is the exact range at which underwater diversionary forces (aka Frogs or, in Russian, PDSS) operate with ease assisted today by a variety of underwater drones capable both of mining and mine-hunting. So, this is just to keep in mind as a context, I imply nothing.
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