Wednesday, November 29, 2017

My New Article At The Saker's Blog.

Here is my latest piece on a travails of Russian Navy. The Saker asked me to share my thoughts on the issue--I gladly obliged. 

The Russian Navy at the crossroads: paradoxes and choices

Those who are interested in Russian naval strategic thought may find this further development and elaboration on my publications in US Naval Institute Proceeding and Blog to be of some value.  

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

It Is Official--3M22 Is Operational.

OK, what many suspected all along was confirmed today by former Commander of Russian Air Force, currently the Chairman of the Defense and Security Committee of the Federation Council (Senate) Viktor Bondarev--3M22 Zircon is operational, together with exotic Skif (Scythian).  That, my friends, marks the end of the naval warfare as we know it--no worries, it was coming for some years now and should not represent any surprise. I wrote a lot on the effect which this weapon will have on the warfare, now it is in at least what usually is called IOC (Initial Operational Capability) and that means that all new Russian ships and submarines will be armed (if not already) with it. There is NO way today, and in the nearest future, that Zircon can be intercepted--simply does not exist in nature bar some CGI cartoons about some lasers. The fact that Russian-Indian project of Brahmos was confidently stating as early as two years ago that is was on its way of completing its Mach=5+ Brahmos version of hyper-sonic weapon should have served as a clue. Evidently Zircon is capable of Mach=8, that is roughly 340 meters per second x 8 = 2720 meters per second, or 2.7 kilometers per second, or roughly 1.7 miles per second. Good luck shooting that down. So, I have to now take it a little bit in since this whole thing changes completely Russian outlook on aircraft carriers and it explains a bit what I wrote in USNI Blog:

On 18 July, Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister Yuri Borisov dropped a bomb when he revealed that discussion on the development and production of a brand new Yakovlev STOVL (based on the ideas of the Yak-141) aircraft is in full swing must enter serious production in 2025.12 For the Russian CVN “trade union” and global navalists the news was devastating. Yet, this announcement by Borisov indicated clearly Russia’s ever intensive doctrinal debate and struggle with the carrier issue because it was the Soviet/Russian Navy that developed and today deploys an array of ASCMs designed precisely to make large, expensive CVNs obsolete. The Russian Navy knows the capabilities of its missiles. It also understands that the U.S. Navy, as well as other serious navies, inevitably will break the hypersonic barrier, as well as develop a genuine distributed lethality, and this will rewrite the rules of naval warfare. Already, the U.S. Navy deploys some long-range subsonic missiles, such as the LRASM, whose salvo is extremely difficult to defend against. With long-range hypersonic technology, in a hypothetical Russian case, something as expensive as the proposed Storm-class carrier in battle is simply providing for a fat, expensive, and prestigious target. In real combat, even damage to the decks of carriers makes them nothing more than a huge pile of metal incapable to launch or land fixed-wing aircraft. Russia’s power projection needs can be met by other means, especially against the background of the mediocre performance of the Admiral Kuznetsov carrier in Syria.

So,  here is your new brave new world of warfare straight out of comic books--let us just hope that it remains such, just pictures in some magazine.

Friday, November 17, 2017

There Is A Submarine Missing. SOS!

Argentina's Navy lost contact with one of its diesel subs with 44 hands. I don't believe in this statement since this is not how communications protocols work: 

The navy began an air and sea search on Thursday. On Friday afternoon, Argentina’s foreign ministry said that the U.S., British and Chilean governments had offered logistical support and exchanges of information to assist with the search.
A Chilean aircraft with the ability to search during the night was en route to assist, Chile’s Foreign Minister Heraldo Munoz said.

Let's just pray--and I do, despite being an atheist--that they will be found and saved. It is Friday and the news are not that good. Yet, it is still Friday and Soviet/Russian progressive/art rock stalwarts Avtograph once, in 1985 wrote a magnificent piece of music called S-O-S. I remember this music non-stop in my feverish mind when Kursk was dying.

UPDATE for 11/20/17: 

The news are not good:(( 

Satellite calls did not come from missing Argentine submarine: navy spokesman

The search is complicated by storm. 

UPDATE for 11/21/17: 

It seems that the storm calmed down somewhat. As some Russian submariners say, if to be very thrifty they may have enough oxygen for up to 10 days. 
Morales and other relatives of crew members have been gathered at a naval base in Mar del Plata, where authorities are coordinating the search and rescue operation.
My heart goes out to those people... These are forces, other than Argentinian, which are currently involved in search--good luck to them. My sincere admiration and wish of success to American, German, French, British, Chilean, Brazilian and other forces responding immediately to this situation. 

UPDATE for 11/22/17:    

Can this Thanksgiving give us some hope, a glimmer of it.  We all know, oxygen is running out. 

In Mar del Plata, locals hung sky blue and white Argentine flags, with inscribed messages like “ARA San Juan, the world is with you” on the chain link fence outside the naval base.“We are desperate,” resident Leandro Gamarra said outside the base. We want them to appear.”

And so do we all. 

UPDATE for 11/24/17: 



Thursday, November 16, 2017

Mr. Secretary, Get a Hold Of Yourself.

There are many American naval leaders who create a sense of admiration and professional respect, even among adversaries. Names of Chester Nimitz, Arleigh Burke, Elmo Zumwalt, David Farragut, of course, John Paul Jones (a Russian Navy's admiral), among many outstanding American naval officers, come to mind immediately. Former Secretary of the Navy (SECNAV) John Lehman is not one of them, at least not for me. In fact, it was on Lehman's watch, Lehman, of course, being a naval aviator himself, that the foundation for a decline of the US Navy was laid. Of course, everybody can recall Reagan's (that is Lehman's) 600 Ship Navy, they also can recall how a mediocrity such as Tom Clancy was pulled out of his insurance agent job to start writing BS about Soviet Armed Forces (courtesy of John Lehman) but apart from bloated naval bureaucracy and arrogance, one has to also remember that Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Trost called Lehman "not a balanced human being".  Trost had a point, once one reads last assertions by John Lehman as presented by US Naval Institute:

WASHINGTON, D.C. — The U.S. military is losing its technological edge, in part because Russian cyber forces have penetrated the defense industry and are stealing information, former Secretary of the Navy John Lehman said on Wednesday.

“We were used, in the Cold War, to having the current edge in technology, partially because the Russians adopted a policy after World War II to draft off our technology – so they designed their fighters to use F/A-18 radar because they knew they’d be able to steal them,” Lehman said on Wednesday at a Maritime Security Dialogue event cohosted by the U.S. Naval Institute and the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“Today their cyber is so capable, even though most of the defense industry will not publicly admit it, but they’re right in from the beginning of the program with their cyber capability, so there is almost no lag. They’re not behind us, they’re with us in our [technology development].”
This is how Mr. Lehman sees how Russia is supposedly catching up to the United States technologically. I don't know, but if John Lehman, from the high position he held in 1980s couldn't figure out how and why Soviet Navy differed, drastically at that, in its views on fighting war from US military, I guess nothing will change it. No argument will be powerful enough to convince Mr. Lehman that in 1988 there was NO cyber-espionage. Did the Soviet Union in the past and Russia today spy and continue to spy on US? Hell yes, if they wouldn't, it would have been strange at best. But so does the United States which is in this business of spying, including cyber espionage, on USSR and Russia from the inception. As he states:

“If you look at their latest submarines, it’s pretty hard to project a real advantage sub-to-sub. [They] copied all of the technology off our submarine quieting, and they’re ahead in some of the offensive capabilities,” he said. “We have really fallen behind in technology, and we need to get back into that game.
1. If I may, I want to remind to Mr. SECNAV about this: 

Project 971 SSN (aka Akula in NATO) didn't become the "best submarine in the world" due to some espionage--it became such primarily as a continuous development of a whole host of technologies, from hull to sensors, to weapons which are unique--that means exists only in USSR/Russia--in the world. Moreover, prior to first Akula (in reality Schuka--a Pike) ever being afloat, Soviet Navy experimented with already very silent and powerful Project 671 RTM (Victor III-class) SSNs and, of course, cutting edge Project 945 (Sierra) SSNs--those boats being largest titanium man-made objects. All that was a result of not so much of espionage as of a very unique Soviet/Russian shipbuilding school which produced some of the most outstanding submarines in history. In the end, Soviet SSKs of Project 877 (Kilo-class) were extremely silent in 1980. Issues of both silencing and acoustics have been dealt with in USSR as early as late 1950s. Soviet Navy knew that its first nuclear subs were noisy and lacked good acoustics, hence the whole network of acoustic institutes which were opened in USSR. But let me get specifically to what is highlighted in yellow.

2. Russia is ahead in "some offensive" technologies not because of espionage but because of seeing a war for what it is, thus preparing to deal with any adversary based on reality, thus developing effective weapons. While John Lehman was pushing for more nuclear aircraft carriers, Soviet Navy was pushing for real weapons capable of sinking anything, those  carriers included. Here are some "offensive capabilities" which Russians sure as hell didn't steal from US and that is why Russia is precisely a world leader in them:

a) Mig-31 was the first fighter in the world with phased-array, electronically scanned radar and it had nothing, zero, to do with any F-18, since USSR was always one of the world's leaders in that field. 

b) In terms of anti-shipping missiles--it is simply ridiculous to even compare. Soviet Union opened the combat era of ASCM with venerable P-15 Termit, of which Israeli Navy is keenly aware, and today Russia possesses an unprecedented anti-shipping capability ranging from P-800 Onyx, 3M54 Kalibr to upcoming hyper-sonic 3M22 Zircon. There is nothing comparable in US Navy's arsenal--it is a very good chance that the espionage in this field is more on Russia from US, than the other way around. 

c) There is nothing, zero, comparable to Soviet/Russian Shkval, which will become even faster soon. 

d) A variety of non-acoustic sensors, initially as a help for relatively weak Soviet acoustics in 1950s and 1960s, now as a totally independent non-acoustic detection suites from wake to gravity, to completely new physical principles of detection and tracking targets--all of it being designed and produced in USSR and Russia totally out of own resources. 

e) In order for me not to continue with this long list of those purely Soviet/Russian technologies which have very little to do with spying (let alone cyber-spying) but are in the foundation of the world-class engineering and manufacturing of superb weapon systems, revisiting this might be a good idea

In general, the United States for all of its engineering, designer and technological undeniable genius does not have monopoly in any weapon systems which are designed for real war, not blowing with impunity some shit in the third world shit-holes, it is not the same as facing a salvo of P-800 let alone X-32s. While John Lehman was pushing for carriers, Soviets were pushing for the future of war and if the United States Navy, a Navy with undeniably impressive and heroic combat tradition, ended up, geopolitical considerations apart, with no real effective tools to fight a near-peer, let alone peer, John Lehman should blame only himself, not come up with this espionage BS, especially in regards to how Russians deal with hulls shapes and cavitation issues. But the notes of desperation are certainly there. I, however, can assure Mr. Lehman that Russia has NO any plans to sink a US Navy or attack US proper unless attacked first, but I am sure he knows that--of course he does, he was craving for fighting Russians in 1980s, not the other way around. Wasn't Admiral Trost talking about that when called him an unbalanced human being?

Iron Curtian, Now!

I am not being facetious--I mean it. Russia should erect an impenetrable cultural Iron Curtain with Europe. European degeneracy, led, of course, by France is becoming a clear and present danger to the DNA of civilization. In the latest news from France:

France mulls new law on sexual consent after men acquitted of raping 11-year-olds

But to their anger and to the shock of many in France prosecutors decided to only charge the man with sexual abuse of a minor (atteinte sexuel). Their reasoning was that “there was no violence, no constraint, no threat, and no surprise" on the part of the man to justify the charge of rape.Essentially they judged that she had consented to the sexual encounter because she was not physically forced into the act.

This filth must be stopped by all means. European pedophile lobby is slowly but surely succeeding in pushing their agenda and European law is a joke, moreover--European so called morality, especially the way it is reflected in many youth is a sign of Europe being done as civilization. I wish I was wrong and Professor Trifkovic is right when he speaks about overall moral European climate in general and Islamization in particular:

As recent political upheavals in Europe (Brexit) and America (November 8) indicate, the game is not up. Dar al Islam is not inevitably the end of the road. Tens of millions of Westerners are still endowed with feelings and reason, with the awareness of who they are. Their struggle to defend themselves against the World of Submission is just starting, even if the outcome is uncertain. In the face of historic uncertainty, true to their ancestors, it is to be expected that they will hold on to their patrimony.

I, somehow, begin to doubt the outcome, especially with despicable and vomit-inducing spectacle of sexual scandal ongoing in the US. I only have one question, if I would be groped or attempted to be raped by some sleazy Hollywood scumbag, what would prevent me from breaking his face to the point of it needing a serious plastic surgery? Evidently this is not an option anymore for many. Will we finally see the facts of Hollywood and Washington's powerful pedophiles and perverts outed? Western political and so called "intellectual" elites for the most part are filth and they are the ones who are largely responsible for what has already happened to the combined West and I am afraid it would take a devastating event to flush out this debilitating and poisonous virus. 

Monday, November 13, 2017

Saudi S-400?

If to believe ITAR-TASS (only in Russian for now), and they are real news agency, unlike CNN or BBC, the contract for a delivery of some sort of air defense complexes has been signed between Russia and Saudi Arabia. This was announced by Dmitri Shugaev, the head of Federal Service of Military-Technical Cooperation, obviously not a janitor (nothing personal against janitors) or accountant. So, we assume he knows what he is talking about. Ramifications of this delivery (if it happens), the same as Turkey getting S-400 are enormous, this is apart from purely business point of view of Russia breaching the wall around what used to be strictly American hi-end weapon systems' market, especially with Turkey being a member of NATO. Saudi intent to buy S-400 was noted a month ago, with some news agencies reporting on it. 

Saudi Arabia agrees to buy Russian s-400 air defence system - Arabiya TV

Evidently, things are moving fairly fast now. It was, of course, expected by anyone with a modicum of common sense in military affairs that after Syria there will be a significant growth of interest in Russia's hi-end weaponry. Su-35 and Su-34 being the first candidates, but, evidently, S-400 provided a very strong impression in Syria and many now want it. Both Turkey and KSA, of course, want technology sharing. I can totally see Turks, if hypothetical sharing agreement will be reached (I simply don't know) being able to assemble S-400s for themselves. Saudis? I don't know. So, it remains to be seen how it all will play out, but there is no doubt that no matter how one spins that, we are observing a breakthrough. It is also becoming an obvious economic constant that Russian proverbial bang for a buck, or, in more economic language, the amount of combat capability a single dollar buys, is considerably higher than the same provided by the US military-industrial complex. It was always the case, it is just that since relatively recently this capability made it into the Western public domain without attached "comments" by people who have their own interests and agendas and thus act as salesmen, not serious analysts. These news embed itself quite well into the Saker's piece he published on UNZ and do signify a trend of which I write since the inception of this blog (in reality even earlier) that the US lost its ability to produce good weapons for an affordable price. 420+ million dollars for defenseless LCS or, God knows what money for a piece of... F-35 are not a good deals, in fact they are very bad deals since deliver a very "sophisticated" weapon which cannot perform properly. I am not into all this triumphalist boasting but even if to assume that there is some truth to the rumors of Israeli F-35 being shot at (forget for now being shot down) by the ancient Soviet S-200 Vega AD complex, implications are simply colossal and they are political. It will be rather interesting to observe this situation develop further in the Middle East.  

Tuesday, November 7, 2017

New New Europe?

While whole "civilized" world holds its breath waiting for new revelations of yet another perpetrator of pussy-grabbing or other cases of accidental fucking with post-coital results rejection among ever morally and spirituality minded, in a very Roman Polanski way, Hollywood, good ole' Bundeswehr decided to quench our sexual harassment stories' thirst by means of "leaking" some rather interesting views on the fate of EU to the pages of Der Spiegel (in German, obviously, at least for now)RT immediately reacted with producing a synopsis of this study in English. It is a very fascinating view of the worst case scenarios for EU. One phrase from their report caught my eye:
A scenario called ‘Multipolar competition’ predicts extremism on the rise in Europe as some EU members appear to move closer to Russia’s “state capitalism model.” All scenarios, drawn by the German military’s Planning Department, are viewed as conceivable by 2040.

The immediate question here is this: could Russian "model", which still didn't completely emerge (it is in the process) be called "State Capitalism"? No doubt, Russian State made huge strides in addressing the results of robbery of Russia by internal and external thieves and returned large swath of national (strategic) natural resources and manufacturing back under state's control. Granted, not without private capital having sometimes a minority share in many of those enterprises. There is certainly something in the making and apart from Bundeswehr's contingency planning, one piece, remarkable in its coincidence, captured my imagination today. This one is from Aleksandr Rogers, a Russian journalist who made next observations yesterday. The piece is in Russian, from Journalist Pravda, but Google Translate will help those who are interested. The title of the piece is About Great Russian Smoke Curtain. There he makes several, rather fascinating but by no means far fetched, hypotheses based on facts that we all are witnessing, indeed, a massive operation by Siloviki in "emerging" Russia into the model which, no matter how one tries to interpret it, has very little to do with classic liberal (libertarian) "free" market economy and, for all intents and purposes it is working. Here is a phrase:

И не нужно забывать, что и Путин, и Иванов, и Нарышкин, и остальные члены так называемого «кооператива «Озеро» – это профессиональные разведчики, специалисты управления «С» КГБ СССР (линии «Л» и «Н»). Они обучены действовать нелегальными методами, запутывать противника и прикидываться не теми, кем являются на самом деле. Например, могут прикинуться олигархами или коррупционерами.

Here is a translation: 

And do not forget that Putin, Ivanov, and Naryshkin, and other members of the so called Cooperative "Ozero" (Lake)--are all professional spies, specialists from Directorate "S" KGB USSR (Lines "L" and "N"). They are taught to act undercover, confuse the enemy and to pretend themselves being somebody else. For example, they can pretend to be Oligarchs or corruptioneers. 

Judging by the enormous scale of the infrastructure project in Russia this very moment--one has to inevitably agree that Rogers has a point. It is especially striking on the 100th Anniversary of the October Revolution. I find it amusing since I can totally see (well they are here already) some major economic, scientific and cultural breakthroughs in Russia, made especially contrasting against the hell which is slowly unfolding in Europe. Yes, I also see Visegrad Group formalizing as an actual economic and even military block  relatively soon and they will decide themselves how they want to be oriented economically and, considering the number of Muslims and African population exploding in EU, militarily and culturally. After all, somehow Russia raised her standard of living dramatically in the last 10 years, even despite falling oil prices and sanctions. This is the cold hard fact of life which can not be denied and this was done by refusing to follow "free market" financial capitalism prescriptions. Hm, interesting....

Wink, wink, if you know what I mean.


Thursday, November 2, 2017

Launching 3M54.

A very interesting video of Grad Sviyazhsk launching anti-shipping Kalibrs (3M54) at surface targets. Shows how the BIP (Combat Informational Post) operates and how CO can Command and Control. Sadly, in Russian only. But still interesting nonetheless for people who are not well-acquainted with naval warfare.