Russia shelters thousands of civilians at her Kheimim Air Base.
Hello! US MSM are generally war criminals--I am talking about their editorial boards staffed with sociopaths and whores, both literally and figuratively speaking. In other words--those are not normal humans.
It is not "as often happens"--it happens always. There is not an atrocity or war crime which US MSM wouldn't support. So, this flows naturally from the nature of the journalism schools in the West where they produce primarily brainwashed illiterate activists who have neither morals nor integrity. Doctor Goebbels would have been proud. Now, information now emerges that actually Tiger Brigade and its commander Suheil are intact, how and why--we have to wait and see, but many transport planes fly to Khmeimim as we speak. So, we will have to be patient.
... new details emerge how Assad, for all his failures, was basically sabotaged by the hodgepodge power elite with Alawites at its core, who loved their privileges and big stars of useless generals. And, allegedly, declined power sharing proposal. Russian ships moved about about 4 nautical miles to the sea and are anchored there waiting for dust to settle--it is about the range of the longest ATGMs, that's why such distance, after that they will come back and negotiations about Russian bases will start. As Vladimir Putin said in 2015--"We cannot be more Syrian than Syrians themselves". Per SAA--my description of SAA are being confirmed hourly--a demoralized force since 2015 with low combat value and corrupt generals. The only combat worthy formation of SAA "Tiger" Brigade originated as the private military unit. It got incorporated into SAA. And once those factors begin to be considered--the hysterical reaction of emotional wrecks to all this becomes utterly unreasonable. Meanwhile HTS already stated that it will defend Russian bases and is ready to negotiate on them. Geopolitics is a business of grown-ups who pursue the interests of their OWN people. And before I declare this threat and Open one, I want to reiterate what I spoke about in this blog since 2015--Russia was not in Syria to defend Syrian political system, this was at best a secondary consideration. Iran got hurt, though.
Colonel Anatoly Sergievsky about Arab militaries. In Russian. This is the start of the article--follow the link. And here is conclusion (in Russian).
Translation: Nothing was known about the actual situation at the front for days. For example, Syrian President Hafez al-Assad learned about the flight of the 7th Infantry Division from the front only from Soviet advisers. The introduction of the 1st Tank Division into battle on October 7 took place without any leadership from the Syrian high command. A similar situation occurred during the counterattack of the Iraqi-Jordanian troops on October 16. Command and control was also poorly organized at the troop level. Command posts were located at a great distance from the front line: battalions - up to 6 km, brigades - 8-10 km, divisions - up to 20 km. With the beginning of the offensive, the division and brigade commanders remained at their protected command posts. No senior commanders observed the battlefield or the actions of the troops. In many cases, radio communications were not used by commanders and headquarters due to radiophobia or were abandoned on the battlefield. In the division-battalion link, the command staff, not knowing the situation, simply walked away from their radio stations in order to avoid an unpleasant conversation with their superior commanders. In the 1st TD, the division commander, allegedly for the purpose of radio camouflage, banned radio communications altogether. During the battles, there were many cases of non-compliance on the part of officers. Some brigade commanders, under various pretexts, refused to carry out tasks at all (the commander of the 50th MBR), and arbitrarily made decisions to retreat, without reporting this to anyone or informing their neighbors.
See the pattern? 1973, 2024--nothing changed and it cannot be changed.
I don't like Alexandr Kotz in a slightest--I know how he covered SMO--but when the man is right, he is right. It is in Russian (Google Translate will help).
Translation: I do not feel sorry for the Syrian authorities. I remember too well how, back in 2012, we, Russian journalists, were “squeezed” at border control, with all our luggage turned inside out, and our cameras and photo cameras confiscated. Then they hounded us around the offices of various ministries, putting us through an unsolvable puzzle of obtaining various papers and permits. And Western reporters were practically carried around in their arms, trying to demonstrate their liberal views against the backdrop of the uprising in Daraa. These are not my personal grievances. This, among other things, was an expression of their attitude towards my country. Condescending, with rolled eyes and a disdainfully raised upper lip. Then we saved Syria in 2013, if anyone doesn’t remember. Obama was going to cover it with carpet bombing after the chemical provocation in Eastern Ghouta. And thanks to the efforts of Russian diplomacy, the catastrophe was averted. Postponed, as it turns out now. In 2015, we came to Assad's aid again when the terrorists were five kilometers from the center of Damascus. And as best we could, we patched up this patchwork quilt, consisting of various religious, social, forbidden and not so forbidden pieces, between which contradictions grew. The respect that had appeared in the eyes of the "Sadiks" rolled back, if not to disgust, then to the forced patience of the inevitable. Like a cough with Covid.
Pay attention to how he describes SAA generals bestowing themselves with new stars and privileges for the victory which was won by Russians and Iranians primarily. Make your own conclusions, those who still retain a modicum of a common sense. Arab military, yet again, performed what is expected of them--decomposed and ran. I speak about it in my today's video.
About Syria. Here is the acquaintance of the West (and Turkiye) supported thugs with Russian VKS. One of the columns got introduced to some of the arsenal.
... Russia has a lot on her plate. But just in case...
МОСКВА, 18 января. /ТАСС/. Воздушно-космические силы (ВКС) РФ организовали воздушное патрулирование вдоль линии "Браво", разделяющей Голанские высоты между Сирией и Израилем. Об этом заявил заместитель руководителя российского Центра по примирению враждующих сторон (ЦПВС) контр-адмирал Вадим Кулить. "В рамках мониторинга обстановки силами армейской авиации ВКС России организовано воздушное патрулирование вдоль границы зоны разъединения ВС Израиля и ВС САР (линия "Браво")", - сообщил он. О ситуации в Сирии Кулить сообщил, что за прошедшие сутки в идлибской зоне деэскалации зафиксированы три обстрела позиций правительственных войск со стороны террористических группировок "Джебхат ан-Нусра" и "Исламская партия Туркестана" (обе запрещены в РФ): один в провинции Алеппо и два - в провинции Идлиб.Также в районе Эт-Танф со стороны международной коалиции во главе с США зафиксировано одно нарушение воздушного пространства Сирии многоцелевым беспилотником MQ-1C
Translation: MOSCOW, January 18. /TASS/. The Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) organized air patrols along the Bravo line dividing the Golan Heights between Syria and Israel. This was stated by the deputy head of the Russian Center for Reconciliation of Warring Parties (CPVS), Rear Admiral Vadim Kulit. “As part of monitoring the situation, the Russian Aerospace Forces army aviation organized air patrols along the border of the separation zone between the Israeli Armed Forces and the Syrian Armed Forces (Line Bravo),” he said. On the situation in Syria, Kulit reported that over the past 24 hours in the Idlib de-escalation zone, three attacks on government positions by the terrorist groups Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic Party of Turkestan (both banned in the Russian Federation) were recorded: one in the province of Aleppo and two - in the province of Idlib. Also in the Al-Tanf region, the international coalition led by the United States recorded one violation of Syrian airspace by a multi-purpose MQ-1C drone.
Just leave it here, FYI.
... of Prigozhin's spiteful mind and where his hatred for Shoigu and Gerasimov originated from.
In the end, those killed by USAF died for Prigozhin ambition and greed. Likely not only his alone. Rumor has it that it was either Shoigu or Gerasimov who after the event conveyed the message to Prigozhin to the effect that he should abandon stupid efforts to become Napoleon (or similar in scale leader) and that people died because of his ego and greed. Read the whole thing at Larry's blog. In other words, in case of Prigozhin you can take a man out of prison, you can not take the prison out of man.
... victory in war is defined by the achieving political aims in said war. Some of the political aims and their achieving on the way to a complete victory.
Syria Readmitted to Arab League, Bringing Assad Back Into the Fold. Move represents a rejection of U.S. goals as Arab countries forge policies independent of Western concerns
But there is very little doubt that the US illegitimately occupies part of Syria's territory and conducts a favorite business of training terrorists.
I don't know who sent the "message", but this event is a great testament to a military fallacy of the American bases around the world, because not only they will continue to lose the "power projection" value but will continue to increase their value as fat and mostly indefensible targets against modern battlefield delivery systems. Nobody in their own mind would believe that US air defense systems such as Patriot PAC3 can handle a serious salvo of even relatively unsophisticated subsonic means of delivery.
Meanwhile butt-hurt BSer Sebastien Roblin "reports" based on propaganda doctored "data" from 404 that Russia... finally ran out of tanks and reactivated T-54/55 ones.
What uneducated hack Roblin doesn't know, because with degree in "conflict resolution" and "social and global studies" you can not know anything of value, is that Russia was using older T-54/55 since War in Chechnya not for tank operations but as a very helpful artillery units for... drum roll... block posts, thus increasing their combat stability and as a good caliber response in case of attacks on numerous block posts. Generally Western pseudo-academic fields in "strategic studies", "conflict resolution" or "foreign relations" produce unemployable office plankton with minimal skills even for 7/11 janitor, but when you are also getting paid by Ukies, what kind of "reporting" one provides becomes abundantly clear. In general, SMO exposed all, without exception, US MSM and popular "alternative" media as uneducated hacks and unprofessional losers, including a large portion of the US "military experts" with hefty C.V.s in "fighting" in Iraq and Afghanistan, but with minimal expertise in modern wars and combined arms operations of scale.
But that brings us to issue of military education in the US and the new crop of America's present and future military leaders. I wrote about it before and quoted Tim Bakken:
And this is one of very many testimonies of a collapse of professional military education in the US.
In related news, I spoke today with Vera and famous Russian REAL war reporter Marat Khairullin--the rough estimate of just wounded in and around Bakhmut is roughly 20,000. As Marat says, who spends most of his days at the front line and communicates with serious tactical and operational level officers, they all are unanimous--combat medicine in VSU ceased to exist several months ago, and just inside Bakhmut today there are more than 2,000 wounded who still cannot get even stabilization procedures. That means they will be dead in a day or two. Reality of the 404 "offensive" is absolutely not what is being portrayed by Western media. This is not from some shitty TG channels, this is from people of repute and first hand operational (forget tactical) knowledge of the combat zone. Yes, Marat is a constant presence, from the front lines, on Russian major TV networks. So, here is your SitRep of sorts for Friday.
Here is a photo from Syria, from Aleppo. Syrians doing their own version of Immortal Regiment carrying photos of Russian servicemen who died fighting for Syria's independence and clearing it from ISIS plague.
... is not a routine event. In some sense it is extraordinary since Assad went "full Monty", asked for "more cowbell", went out of his way by... insisting that if Russia has military bases in Syria it is only natural to have there all latest toys, especially hypersonic missiles. He also insisted on permanent presence of Russia in Syria and called Ze a clown (in Russian). Syria knows that she is on the brink of a breakthrough internationally--with Saudis and Iran restoring diplomatic relations, with Turkey softening her position on Syria and steadily moving away from the West, all signs for Syria are here, including, of course, the issue of much needed investment and restoration after the war.
Meanwhile the Global Troll in Chief, discusses the issue of turnips for Europeans:
Translation: According to the head of state, things have reached the point where foreign leaders offer their citizens to switch to turnips instead of lettuce and tomatoes. Putin stressed that turnips are a good product, but you will most likely have to go to Russia to get them. The President noted that the level of harvest here significantly exceeds the indicators of European countries. At the same time, he stressed that the yield is mainly affected by weather conditions, but these states will have a hard time without Russian fertilizers.
Hey, I am just a messenger here.)) But jokes aside, as I wrote for years, appearance of MiG-31Ks with Kinzhals at Khmeimim on a permanent deployment changes the balance of power in Mediterranean completely. Thank you again to our own Evald for illustrating it:
The Age of American Naval Dominance Is Over. The United States has ceded the oceans to its enemies. We can no longer take freedom of the seas for granted.
... gives updates from Tzvetnoi (Colorful) Boulevard and Moscow-city.
And here is an interesting snippet:
Well, Russian internal market is huge and despite sanctions and natural for any developed nation islands of low income and social problems, Russians largely remain solvent and continue to buy stuff ranging from food to consumer goods.
Meanwhile, rescue continues in Turkey and Syria, and some small miracles still happen like with this Turkish girl 4 days after quake.
Andrei Raevsky forwarded me this article today.
Only Small Inventories of Hypersonic Missiles in USAF’s Future, Due to Cost.
“I think there’s room for both” boost-glide and air-breathing hypersonic cruise missiles “in our inventory,” Kendall asserted. However, air-delivered hypersonic weapons are at a disadvantage, he said, because “the idea of getting there fast is sort of countered by the fact that you have to fly the airplane there before you launch the missile. So you lose some of that advantage” versus forward-based ground- or sea-launched missiles. He said he doesn’t begrudge the Army pursuing hypersonics for long-range strike because the Air Force is happy to have help in knocking out air defense systems and redundancy gives an enemy more dilemmas. But, “the specific applications are going to have to be based on cost effectiveness and a number of other factors.”
It is a revealing admission of what I am on record for years now--aseroballistic missiles are not the same as air-breathers, let alone such air-breathers as 3M22 Zircon which have a start from slow-moving ships and are full blown controllable anti-shipping (and land-attack) missiles designed to hit moving targets, namely ships. The US is nowhere near in developing such weapons.
Moreover, in an emerging conflict between Russia and the US neither characteristics of upcoming US gliders nor their numbers are enough to damage modern developed air-defense (such as Russia's), not to mention the fact that this AD is being configured to US perspective hypersonic weapons which will be limited in numbers due to traditionally astronomical costs of advanced US weapon systems. It is an interesting piece which also reflects on US defense industry issues. And no matter how many fanboys will be offended by this statement, US' losing arms race to Russia is driven in large part by Russia taking a decisive technological lead in air-defense and anti-missile technologies and, of course, in a monstrously advanced field of cruise and anti-shipping missiles, which changed the naval warfare forever.
As was already reported, Russia deployed 4 TU-22M3 to Syria.
Each of them is capable of carrying 3 X-32 Mach=4.3 missiles. Together with MiG-31Ks armed with hypersonic Kinzhal, this is precisely the salvo required to destroy any surface force, namely CBG. Most likely scenario being Kinzhals removing AEGIS-equipped escorts, with X-32s finishing off the rest of the formation. This is all fitting well with Russia's response being prepared in terms of "military-technical means" to West's failure to react properly to Russia's ultimatum and the number of threats, I think, sadly, to the US military assets and the US proper will grow now really dramatically once the Olympics are closed. I told ya, get a pop-corn and buckle up.
Israel didn't get the message the first time, they try it again and...again almost 90% of their missiles are shot down by Syria's by far not the newest air defense.
МОСКВА, 3 сентября. /ТАСС/. Истребители израильских ВВС выпустили 24 ракеты по целям на территории Сирии, силы ПВО страны уничтожили 21 ракету. Об этом сообщил в пятницу журналистам заместитель руководителя российского Центра по примирению враждующих сторон в Сирии контр-адмирал Вадим Кулить. "Около 01:30 3 сентября четыре тактических истребителя ВВС Израиля F-15 из воздушного пространства Ливана нанесли удар 24 управляемыми ракетами по целям на территории Сирийской Арабской Республики", - сказал он.По словам контр-адмирала, "дежурными силами сирийских ПВО из находящихся на вооружении вооруженных сил САР комплексов российского производства "Бук-М2Э" и "Панцирь-С1" уничтожена 21 ракета".
Translation: MOSCOW, September 3. / TASS /. Fighters of the Israeli Air Force fired 24 missiles at targets in Syria, the country's air defense forces destroyed 21 missiles. This was announced to reporters on Friday by the deputy head of the Russian Center for the Reconciliation of the Warring Parties in Syria, Rear Admiral Vadim Kulit. "Around 01:30 on September 3, four Israeli Air Force F-15 tactical fighters from Lebanese airspace launched 24 guided missiles at targets in the Syrian Arab Republic," he said. In service with the armed forces of the SAR, the Russian-made Buk-M2E and Pantsir-S1 complexes, destroyed 21 missiles.
As I state non-stop, current Western stand-off weaponry is no match for modern networked (truly Integrated, not the "integrated" BS of Iraqi ancient Air Defense) air defense, especially if this AD is integrated with modern EW means. But Israel will, obviously, continue to try, using Lebanese air-space (how predictable--hiding behind helpless) to break through, but with kinetic effectiveness of Syria's AD approaching 90%--I don't know what counter-measures, if any, Syrians use--one can obviously easily and reliably extrapolate combat effectiveness of newer Russian AD complexes when integrated with advanced ECMs. I just want to remind that two years ago I had to respond to some Swedish "expert" on Russia's air defense technology. Latest air battles in Syria's skies answer pretty much most of the question on the combat effectiveness of Russia's older AD technology and on the questions I raise on this blog and in my books non-stop: what happens when the West encounters not some backward third-world opposition but people who actually have tools and do shoot back.
That explains the reason why Saudis signed this on August 24:
Weapons DO form geopolitical reality, they always did, economics always followed. Modern economies create modern weaponry, the most advanced economies initiate revolutions in warfare. Simple as that. But it is this simplicity which is most difficult to grasp by many in the West. Without much fanfare Russia floated few days ago another 114,000 ton Aframax tanker at Zvezda wharf near Vladivostok.
Because it is based on REAL events, including THAT Su-24 whose shooting down by Turks turned out to be the start of tectonic events both inside Turkey and outside, and even globally. The new Russian movie Sky (Nebo) is about Syria and about real people who fought for her and even more than that.
It is not difficult since modern, after 2000, air-defense complexes document hits on targets electronically and then info is shared with "customers" within network. In addition, other means--radar, optronic etc.--track hits and compile statistics. Syrians, it is known, have Polyana C4 system, capable to distribute data and control battle-space against hundreds of targets.
Or the other set-up of terminals:
Translation: MOSCOW, August 20. / TASS /. Syrian Russian-made Buk-M2E and Pantsir-S air defense systems destroyed 22 of 24 guided missiles fired by Israeli Air Force fighters in the provinces of Rif Damascus and Homs on 19 August. This was announced to reporters by the deputy head of the Russian Center for the Reconciliation of the Warring Parties in Syria, Rear Admiral Vadim Kulit. He noted that on August 19, at about 23:00, six Israeli Air Force tactical fighters from Lebanese airspace struck 24 guided missiles on targets in the Syrian Arab Republic in the provinces of Rif Damascus and Homs. "The Syrian air defense forces on duty have destroyed 22 missiles from the Russian-made Buk-M2E and Pantsir-S complexes in service with the SAR armed forces. There are no casualties among the Syrian military personnel or destruction of infrastructure," Kulit said.
You know who enjoys those reports? And this is 92% combat effectiveness of not newest Russia-made complexes? Right! Chinese, who have a shitload of copied Russian complexes such as Buk and S-300, not to mention actual Russian-made other hi-end systems such as S-400. Israel Air Force, whose main air-to-ground weapons are Delilah and Popeye in many respects are the embodiment of the American concept of the air war, not to mention purely American weapons used by Israeli Air Force, and as such are designed form the outset against the opponent who has next to zero air defense capabilities and no air force. A defining feature of all those systems is their subsonic speed, even when sticking all those bells and whistles on them, such as "stealth", or better signal processing and counter-jamming capability, which do not resolve the main issue--their near impotence against modern, deeply-echeloned and networked air defense, which from the outset is designed against the opponent with a maximum strike capability, including supersonic velocities of its main strike means, which, incidentally, the United States doesn't have.
Well, there you go. This is why Chinese are enjoying this. This is not to say that Syrians do not, they surely do and those legends about Syrian warriors winning hi-tech battles against Israel and the US will live on the Arab street for ages, handed down from generation to generation. In other really stunning news, Russian Defense Ministry (and you all know, that unless Shoigu didn't approve it, no fly will sit at the window) dropped a bomb yesterday:
Translation: MOSCOW, August 20. / TASS /. Syria can be included in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), if it is beneficial for this country and the states of the organization. This was announced by the head of the Main Military-Political Directorate of the RF Ministry of Defense Andrei Kartapolov on the air of the "Moscow speaking" radio station. "Why not? Firstly, the charter is not a dogma, it must respond directly to the situation, if it is beneficial to everyone, both Syria and the CSTO are partners, I do not exclude such a possibility," Kartapolov said.
Some people in Israel and the US reached for the anti-anxiety pills. But then again, if Syrian Air Defense is capable of performing this way against the complex terrain, make your own conclusion if it will be that difficult to operate against less cluttered sea surface by modern Russian and Chinese combat ships whose radio-horizon against very low flying anti-shipping missiles is still within the 25-30 kilometer range (depending on the type of ship and elevation of its radar). Do you know what it means? It means that every anti-shipping missile currently (and in the future) deployed by NATO gives roughly 70-80 seconds for ship-borne air defense complexes to react which is plenty of time to detect, track and develop firing solution for any modern AD complex even in the event of it being completely excluded from cooperative network, which is really a very remote possibility, albeit not excluded entirely. In real modern hi-tech combat, everything moves today at high supersonic and hypersonic speeds and modern, let alone newest, air defense systems by Russia (and likely China) are designed to deal with those contingencies, not with what increasingly becomes easy targets even for Syrian Air Defense and no amount of spin in media by the so called "experts" or simply not reporting these news, can obscure this fact. 92% against such a salvo--it is an astonishing result.
Syria's Air Defense is just doing its job.
Syrians are getting really good at it. It is easier to do when you have Buk-M2E, which is a fairly new (mid-2000s) technology. By now, Buks saw so much combat use, that they merely add to the already high demand for Russian air-defense systems on the international market.
Some people are in distress over yet another, how to put it politely, less than satisfactory performance by Israeli weapon systems.
By now it became a routine, really. Israel gets its combat aircraft into the international air space and launches missiles at allegedly Iranian assets in Syria. Syrians, most likely, get early warning from Russians and then shoot down most of the missiles by S1s and Buks. Give Syrians Air Defense a due credit--they are getting really good at it. Obviously such numbers are very disturbing for the Israeli and the United States Air Forces which get a bit of a taste of what even fairly straight-forward and not newest, to say the least, Air Defense can do. Now, even when linearly extrapolated on Russian Air Defense, one gets a very good feel about "leakage" rates and survivability of attacking aircraft in case of real shooting war. A very low probability of such a survival.
While the whole world discusses new Russian fighter whose first flight is scheduled in 2023 (in Russian), and, as it turned out, what is being shown to public IS NOT a static mock up but an actual aircraft which will take to the skies in 2023. I can hear cries from pain (you know, butt-hurt) from many quarters and I can hear Almaz-Antey laughing all the way to the bank. Now, about this 7.5 ton payload--rumor has it that this number is ONLY for the internal bays. If true (will know soon)--it is an amazing aircraft. Kyle Mizokami, being an ignorant journo that he is, tries, however, to put a good face on:
Could Checkmate indeed, uh, checkmate the F-35? It’s way too early to tell. But if UAC can keep costs down and stick to its development schedule, it could hurt the F-35 in the foreign sales market. The F-35 is the equivalent of a Mercedes Benz, but there are plenty of countries that would be perfectly happy to have a Hyundai.
For Myzokami:
The US Air Force Quietly Admits the F-35 Is a Failure
To call this barely flying POS a "high end" and compare it to Mercedes is an insult to good engineering and combat experience. On the other hand, Mercedes, together with most German cars, consistently takes the lead as one of the least reliable and monstrously expensive vehicles to fix. Alleged Mercedes' advantages over "competitors" (Toyota laughs at such statements), it's dick enlargement factor and "luxury" to feed the ego of wealthy has zero real value, and since Mizokami mentioned Hyundai I saw a new Sonata two days ago on the parking lot of our local Safeway--it is a gorgeous car for a fraction of price and has it all. At least Mercedes, when it drives, can drive fast, "high end" F-35 cannot even fucking fly supersonic:
The F-35 Has a Problem With Going Supersonic, But the DoD Does Not Want to Fix it
Yes, of course, if F-35 is a "high end" and a Mercedes of the combat aircraft, then who can forget a brilliant "victory" in Vietnam and surely "not being defeated" in Afghanistan.The level of a butt-hurt is off the scale.
I have a profound respect for Colonel Douglas Macgregor, whom I count as one of the diamonds in a cesspool of US "elites", but even this exemplary American officer has his flaws. We all do. Yesterday Macgregor published a piece in The American Conservative which opens with a broadside.
Putin’s Turkish Nightmare. The revived geopolitical rivalry between Russia and Turkey spells trouble for Putin and his allies.
Here, we need to clarify some things immediately, because there is NO "rivalry" between Russia and Turkey for a simple reason that two countries are in a completely different leagues across the whole spectrum of nations' activities ranging from the economy, to military to science to what have you. The United States and Russia are rivals, China and the United States are rivals, France and Germany are latent rivals. Turkey and Russia are not, not even close. Turkey is a regional power with its own set of objectives, grossly embellished by Erdogans' personal ambitions and delusions but to be a rival to someone one needs to have an appropriate geopolitical weight.
Here is a recent (warning: it is Bloomberg) review of Turkey's economy and here is how it is being assessed by Turks themselves, and keep in mind that the actual "growth" is not a rebound after Covid:
Moreover, the growth of a manufacturing sector in Turkey is a manufacturing sector of what used to be called in good ol' times a developing country. As you can see yourself, in the end government spending, services, agriculture with construction constitute a lion share of Turkish GDP.
And when it comes to "developing" it means only one thing--either heavy licensing in what constitutes the foundation of military-industrial capacity or tier 2 and lower participation on joint projects without technology transfer. Such as F-35 in which Turkey participated as a wing and engine parts manufacturer. In other words, even when one sees graceful Milgem-class frigates--an indigenous Turkish combat ship, one has to remember that much of these ships innards are not of Turkish origin.
_from_aboard_the_guided_missile_destroyer_USS_Ross_(DDG_71)_in_the_Mediterranean_Sea_during_a_passing_exercise_Sept_140902-N-IY142-159.jpg/1280px-thumbnail.jpg)
Ankara’s successful intervention to support Azerbaijan’s seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenian control has worsened the relationship. Armenia’s humiliation may shake the resolve of others allied with Moscow.
Here is where he makes a huge mistake:
1. Starting with Turkey. Turks, as all people of the region, have a propensity for exaggeration of own significance and successes. Turkey was fast to assign the credit for Azerbaijan's success in Nagornyi Karabakh to itself, especially pressing grossly overrated Turkish UAVs' capabilities. In reality, while representatives of Turkish General Staff were present at a planning and execution stage of Azerbaijan's operations, a decisive factor in Azeri success were not Turkish UAVs but Azerbaijan's overwhelming advantage over Armenian forces there in terms of MLRS and artillery, ranging from a devastating Smerch 9A52 systems to good ol' self-propelled guns. This, combined with a decade long training of Azerbaijan's Army specifically for this operation and a flow (worth $4 billion) of advanced Russian weapons, including T-90 tanks, S-300 PMU2 air defense and all kinds of infantry weapons, assured Azerbaijan's success.
2. Russia from the git go took a deliberate stand-off position on this matter and I will not delve into the list of all reasons for that, but this position was well calculated and, in the long run, served Russia's strategic interests against the background of crumbling Russian-Armenian relations. In other words--Russia tacitly allowed Azerbaijan to take what Azerbaijan counts as it's rightfully own. Needless to say, that President Putin was and remains a very good friend of Aliev's family (including both human and professional closeness with late Geydar Aliev) and has excellent relations with Ilham Aliev. This IS NOT the case with Armenia's leadership and especially Armenian diaspora.
In other words, Russia doesn't see much danger from Turkey having presence in the region and what are the limits of this presence, I am sure, Putin and Ilham Aliev had a very constructive discussion on this issue. Needless to say, that for all assistance from Sunni Turkey, Azerbaijanis are Shiites and overwhelming majority of them lives in...Iran, in three provinces symptomatically named...Azerbaijan. Iran has an immense influence in Azerbaijan's politics and economy and this factor cannot be discounted against the background of Turkish-Azerbaijani cooperation. In other words--it is much more complex than the black and white picture Macgregor draws and there was NO shaking of faith in regards to Nagorny Karabakh, which, incidentally, is not even recognized by Armenia proper.
As for Turkish dramatically overrated UAVs' operations against what turned out to be a grossly outdated and untrained Artsakh air defense, and Turkey having, in reality, a rather mediocre military force when faced with determined and experienced enemy--Turkish operations' collapse in Idlib in 2020 once Syrians pulled in their good ol' Osas and Buks is an exhibit A of Turkey's military limitations.
If Biden were to ask Putin where the next Sunni Islamist Caliphate will arise, Putin would likely tell him: “Mr. President, it’s already here. It’s called Turkey, my nightmare.”
Is a bit too simplistic and Turkey for Russia is not a rival but possible minor spoiler, not to mention the fact that grandiose aspirations by Turkey usually (historically) have been cut down by the reality of military-political balance in the region which seldom favored Turks no matter what they tried. So aspirations of Erdogan, as Macgregor points out:
According to Erdogan’s critics, Erdogan’s strategic vision for the Turkish nation is to be recognized on the world stage as a global power. This means Turkey must become a Balkan power, a Mediterranean power, a Middle Eastern power, a North African and even limited African power, a Caucasian power, a Central Asian power, a Eurasian power, and especially a Muslim power.
Is a bridge too far in the 21st century, because to become all that Turkey needs to move in the direction opposite to what Erdogan and Muslim Brotherhood preach and that runs immediately into the realities of modern industrial economy and the wall of Iran's own interests in the region and Russians know this damn well. That is why they sit above this geopolitical dance and observe, while contemplating what to do next and who to help. After all, Erdogan is mortal and is 67 and has a very nerve-wrecking life. Plus, it is good to have options. Simple as that.
So, no, Turkey is not Russia's (or Putin's) nightmare, not even close. Psychos in D.C., however, are, because unlike Turks they are non-agreement capable 100% of a time.
