The Smell Of Coping.

Or when the butthurt becomes intolerable)) Especially since India wants now SU-57. Comparing SU-57 to F-35, LOL. Apart from typical BS about "western avionics" (really?) and comparing pathetic AIM-120 AMRAAM weapons suite of F-35 to hypersonic 400 kilometer range R-37 and now land attack version of Zircon and utter incompatibility of F-35 and modern warfare, they launch another BS:

The Su-57’s purchase is not without danger. Its stealth capabilities are behind the F-35’s, and production is still low, with fewer than a half-dozen in Russian hands as of 2025.

Well, well, well. How about we give the microphone to Deputy Commander of Russia's Air-Space Forces General Maksimtsev. I am sure he knows a teeny-weeny bit about all this SU-57 business. 

Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces Lieutenant General Alexander Maksimtsev has confirmed that preparations are underway for the deliveries of Su-57 fifth generation fighters at an accelerated rate. “In accordance with the state procurement order, the Russian Aerospace Forces are receiving modern and upgraded weapons and equipment on an annual basis… The delivery of Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jets with modern aircraft armaments and hypersonic weapons is being ramped up,” he stated. Russian industry had set a highly ambitious target of a 67 percent surge in the production of Su-57s in 2024, with 20 fighters expected to enter service that year compared to just 12 fighters in 2023 and only six fighters in 2022. This would have nearly doubled the fleet size from 22 to 42 fighters, although significant uncertainty has remained regarding whether this target was met. The delivery of just two batches of Su-57s was confirmed in 2024, with the number of aircraft in these batches remaining unknown. 

Well, this "uncertainty" remains only for people who still cannot come to grips with the reality of Russia's economy but 42+ operational SU-57s certainly doesn't fit the description of "half dozen". It hurts especially bad against the background of Spain telling F-35 to go and pound sand. Which brings us to another gaping hole in combat aviation programs of NATO--the whole of NATO (US included) DOES NOT have any modern and capable combat aircraft in the pipeline other than public masturbations to some "sixth generation" whatever, while lagging dramatically behind Russia in the field of very high velocity super long range AA missilery. Theoretically one can go to the battlefield in the Bentley limousine and with the machine gun, but BTR-82 will win the engagement easily every time. So, let them cope. And lie, this is what they are good at. 

Meanwhile...

 ... in the world of "stealth". 

A United States F-35 fighter jet recently had a very close call over Yemen. During an operation, rebels fired a missile that came close enough to the aircraft for the pilot to take sudden evasive action. This event made people question how and where the F-35 should be used. The F-35 is considered one of the most advanced fighter jets in the world. It is designed to fly into enemy territory, avoid detection, and destroy important military targets. But in this case, the aircraft was flying in a region where the enemy did not have the kind of large military setup the F-35 was built to fight.

This is a fodder for fanboys and ... stand-up comedians. Houthis, who operate air defense which is, to put it politely, ancient obviously have no issues with detecting, tracking and developing a firing solution (of sorts) against this "stealth" fighter. 

The issue here is not even this, devastating as it is: 

With touted "sophistication" and "stealth" of F-35 being nothing but marketing legerdemain. Nope, it is the fact that this thing is not really a combat aircraft which as of today doesn't meet ANY of six critical combat readiness criteria and is not survivable in the modern air combat of the XXI century. Simple as that, even when one discounts the issue of pre- and deployment of these hangar queens anywhere in Europe. 

Also, about this Istanbul hysteria. I'm getting tired, really, from all this BS from media and media personalities:

When asked about the agenda of the possible talks between Russia and Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov replied that “all the talking points are on the table.” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov earlier said that Moscow wants to discuss “a sustainable settlement of the situation, first of all, by addressing the very roots of this conflict, resolving issues related to the denazification of the Kiev regime, ensuring recognition of the realities that have developed recently, including the entry of new territories into Russia.” 

For some of the posters on my blog--yes, Putin and Kremlin in general are naive. They will be lured into the the Minsk-3, will stop SMO and Moscow is being evacuated as we speak--the new Russian capital will be in Kazan, but that's not 100%, most likely it will be moved to Vladivostok. Meanwhile VSU forcefully evacuates Liman and other towns now:

You know, because as you can see yourself Russians are desperately grasping at self imposed ceasefire for May 9th. Just look at that--Russian guns fell silent. 

Yep, that's it. Russia is finished. 

Only Sublime Would Doubt It.

This is also about hysterical posts elsewhere on this blog, that Russia talking (mind you--just talking with the US) about hypothetical relaunch of NS-2 somehow will contribute to "rearming" EU. It will not, due to the fact that EU, even if to imagine that NS-2 (2 out 4 pipes) will be relaunched, will continue to buy gas at a market price--that is very expensive. And here we are. 

Minister of Defense Boris Pistorious shut down suggestions that Germany could reverse its decision to buy the F-35A Lightning II following recent tensions between Europe and the United States. Speaking to German media, Pistorious said “The United States is and will remain an important ally for us – also for the Bundeswehr’s equipment. This applies not only to the F-35, but also to our other projects”. Proposals to cancel Germany’s order for 35 F-35A Lightning IIs have come while the current defense and security relationship between the United States and Europe faces criticism from high ranking members of the new U.S. administration.

EU cannot "rearm" itself for the real war. It is still stuck in the warfare of the 1990s with capabilities, or rather lack thereof, matching those 1990s views. So, chihuahuas will continue to buy expensive and unreliable US weapons and they still don't have capability to move into the XXI century, period. 

Meanwhile, brand new German coal power plant (6 years) is demolished a few days back. 

Germany is over. 

Evidently, I Am In the Mood ...

... for butthurt news today. Or, rather, having fun at and with them, because my BS meter is extremely sensitive. 

India Has a Choice: Russia’s Su-57 or America’s F-35 Fighter?

India will choose F-35, we all know that, but that's not the point. It is the copious amount of BS they continue to spread. Like this, in the same piece:

The Su-57’s top speed of Mach 2.0 is noticeably faster than the F-35, but it is not as stealthy. In a unique display, both the American-made F-35 Lightning II and Russian-made Su-57 were seen together during an air show in India earlier this month. In addition to the Chinese Chengdu J-20 and American F-22 Raptor, these fifth-generation platforms are considered to be the most capable in service today. The presence of both airframes at the Aero India 2025 is significant as tensions continue to ramp up across the globe.

The question which one must ask is--and what is so "unique" in this "display"? Both countries brought their planes to the show. OK, wow. Now, another matter is PLURAL in terms of platforms and considered by who? So, Russians brought combat proven 5th generation aircraft with unrivaled combat record, while the US brought ...

As the second U.S.-made fifth-generation fighter platform, the F-35 is widely considered to be the most formidable of its kind to fly the skies. 

Again, considered by who? What are the criteria of "formidability"? Some BS propaganda about the platform which became a global butt of jokes and is absolutely not fit for real war? F-35 flew a rather boring routine at Aero India 2025 which is a pity, considering the fact that Su-57 stole the show, but that's just that--the show. I am sure when fresh (February 2025) facts on combat readiness are presented:

The F-35 fighter program continues to struggle with meeting test milestones and mission readiness goals, but progress is being made on both fronts, according to the latest report from the Pentagon’s test director and comments from the Joint Program Office and Lockheed Martin. Testing of the F-35’s Technology Refresh-3 software and hardware “remained significantly behind schedule throughout [Fiscal Year] 2024, acting Director of Operational Test and Evaluation Raymond D. O’Toole Jr. said in his organization’s annual report, released in late January. “The F-35 program has shown no improvement in meeting schedule and performance timelines for developing and testing software designed to address deficiencies and add new capabilities,” the report added.

This excruciating for military analysis professionals BS may stop, because in the end, shows are for ... well, shows for hoi polloi, while in particular case of India all those behind closed doors "negotiations" may last forever and will be decided by the scale of bribes, not combat capability of which F-35 has none in real war.    

Butthurt Is Strong on This One ...

The National Interest tabloid cannot give it a rest. They continue to parade their butthurt, or a minute of military porn, LOL))

Visually, the Su-57 is impressive. But the whole purpose of stealth, long-range missiles, and beyond-visual-range detection is that if you can see the enemy with your eyes, you probably did something wrong. Following the fifth-generation showdown at the “Aero India 2025” biennial air show at the Yelahanka Air Force Station, which began last Monday, Russia has continued to hype up its Sukhoi Su-57 (NATO reporting name “Felon”).

Boy, this amateur with degree in journalism (that means he has no real education) is akin to a kindergarten kid who got his candy taken away. Here is his awesome "background", LOL. 

Somebody really has to explain this guy that:

1. So called Stealth is primarily a mythology of the Lockheed it developed to sell this BS F-117 which met ignominious demise from Serbian AD in 1999. So, this Suciu guy obviously doesn't understand that the reduction of RCS primarily in the front semi-sphere is just but one of the measures commonly known as reduction of the physical fields of the platform, not to mention the fact of any Russian AD complex or airborne radar, especially plugged in the combat network, in the US aka CEC--Cooperative Engagement Capability, yes, Russians have analog already well tried in real combat, and neither S-400 nor PESA Irbis on Su-35 or AESA Byelka on Su-57 have any difficulty detecting, tracking and developing firing solution against any "stealth" combat aircraft. I omit here a pathetic range of F-35's arsenal with its AIM-120 AMRAAM with its maximum range of 180 km against hypersonic, 400 km-range R-37 carried by Su-57, Su-35, 30SM and SM2. 

2. There was NO showdown in India. F-35 would disintegrate should it ever try even some parts of the flying routine of Su-57, and I mean literally--it would disintegrate. It is time for fanboys and the graduates of Air Combat University of the Top Gun: Maverick to wake up and try to compare combat proven weapon system against the best NATO AD scoring record air to air kills, with hangar queens of the USAF such as obsolete F-22 and some mediocre at best flying contraption which was made to fight against ... well, someone who has no viable air force. I know, it hurts so badly. But this journo can thank Biden Admin and his colleagues from the whoring "profession" who helped to expose NATO military "power" as that of the paper tiger. So, go on, make my day, punk (c). Ah yes, there was no showdown, Su-57 simply stole the show. 

If You Ever Doubted...

 ... a complete economic and cultural breakdown in the combined West. Here is the proof. It is all about looks, nothing of substance. 

Society, which accepts as a sign of class and belonging $2,500 dumbbells from Louis Vuitton is bound to collapse. And collapsing it does. That projects extremely well onto views on economy and warfare. In every piece of news or essay on war in the US one will necessarily encounter references to the price-tag of a weapon system. Of course costs are important but...

WASHINGTON -- All versions of the F-35, the world's costliest weapons program, have failed to meet minimum combat readiness rates for six straight years, according to the watchdog agency for Congress. That's despite the Army, Navy and Marine Corps spending $12 billion, or about 21%, of $57.2 billion for aircraft operations and maintenance appropriated by Congress during that time on the fighter jet built by Lockheed Martin Corp., according to a Government Accountability Office tally released Monday.

That is exactly the same pattern as Louis Vuitton peddling $2,500 dumbbells to dumb belles of leisure class which never learned anything from life and continues to produces $2,500 or $57.2 billion dumbbells, designed merely for conspicuous consumption not for providing valuable service. But then again, US taxpayers are used to...

... you all know what. Here is the link to GAO Report.

Nima And Larry...

... on the fate of NATO.  

But, of course, the release of GAO Report on F-35 is shocking, it is mind-boggling. If the situation with the new generation SSN(X) hasn't been enough, now the actual numbers on combat readiness of F-35 is a shock! 

                               

Good God! The USAF doesn't have the air force in effect. We knew F-35 was shit, but this--this is the greatest financial swindle in the history of combat aviation. Add here LCS clusterfuck, add here SMO and the "performance" of US-made weapon systems, and the picture which emerges... well, I am awe-struck with the scale of corruption, technological ineptitude and BS which permeates the whole system. It is a whole other level. Shocking still. I'll discuss this in my new video.

Some Importnat Issues Not-Covered In Depth Otherwise.

One of them is, of course, as in that old anecdote about Chief The Sharp Eye who after a month of imprisonment noticed that the prison had only three walls, with the fourth one gone and leading to freedom, Washington Post now "noticed": 

Increasingly, Ukrainians are confronting an uncomfortable truth: The military’s understandable impulse to defend against Russian attacks could be putting civilians in the crosshairs. Virtually every neighborhood in most cities has become militarized, some more than others, making them potential targets for Russian forces trying to take out Ukrainian defenses.

No, moron, what's your name, Sudarsan Raghavan, it is not "virtually every neighborhood... has been militarized", it is called using civilians and civilian infrastructure as a human shield, because people are not allowed to leave. A classic newspeak and double-meaning from a CIA-controlled rug, which also has issues with "noticing" the fact of Ukies shelling incessantly civilian neighborhoods all over Ukraine and Donbass and then, of course, blaming it on Russians. 

But behind this sudden discovery by lowlifes from WaPo hides another important purely military truth admitting which by the pool of all kinds of former Top Brass spewing BS in main stream media on Ukraine is akin to committing a seppuku, and those perfumed princesses don't like pain. Obviously, nobody does, but when truth causes pain, then it tells you something about the character of people. And here it is, from Saker's blog: 

It is now clear that the Pentagon leadership has seen the utterly dismal performance of the Javelin and now wants to phase it out from U.S. forces. Remember, out of thousands of Javelins supplied, thousands of videos published by Ukraine, not a single successful usage of the system has ever been recorded. In fact the vast majority of successful Ukrainian defeats of Russian armor happens at the ends of legacy Soviet/Russian systems and mostly artillery. Russian forces continue to find Javelin units completely unused because Ukr troops have found them to be unwieldy and impractical in combat – too long to set up and use, too heavy to carry around, and not effective even when used.

Color me surprised, NOT. Didn't I warn about all those wunderwaffe supplied to 404 by the US and NATO? Those are primarily for sale, not for fighting a REAL war. Emphasis on "real". The author of the piece (Nightvision) continues:

In another sudden and unexpected report, the Pentagon now wants to scrap DOZENS of F-22’s. They have suddenly decided they want to ‘divert funding’ to the next generation platform. There is clearly connection here to something the Pentagon has witnessed in Ukraine that has left it scrambling to rethink its approach to modern warfare. You see all proxy wars are laboratories for Great Powers to test and assess their equipment. The F-22 was the flagship of the U.S. airforce, the ONLY plane forbidden by Congress to sell to any ally even in ‘export version’.  

I find nothing unexpected in that cancellation. Many people have to put together these two events: December 2005, the official acceptance of F-22 into service and this date--April 2007, combat deployment of S-400 air defense system. For those who have a short memory I will remind you that throughout 2000-s Russians maintained that F-22 was already obsolete by the time it was rolling off the manufacturing floors of Lockheed and that the whole "Stealth" concept as envisioned in the US was a grossly oversold marketing gimmick. Since then S-400 not only spread around but deserved the reputation of the best AD defense system in the world and when air war is considered within the framework of Russia's, not Iraq's or Afghanistan's, air defense capabilities which are redundantly networked, are supported by both Early Warning, EW  and satellite capability, and are very deeply integrated top-bottom, suddenly this whole concept of the US air war and of F-22 begins to lose its glamour and hi-tech feel. 

In other words, Russian AD, as I am on record non-stop, not only sees any "stealth" target, but tracks it and develops and, if necessary, distributes targeting. This is a completely different environment and as events of the last moth in 404 have shown--relatively modern and numerous Air Force, such as this of 404, ceases to exist as a force very fast and is reduced, both by strikes at the air fields and through anti-air operations, to a collection of random "survivors" whose sortie rate goes down precipitously and their chances of accomplishing anything and return to the base are approaching zero. And all this, against the background of what I describe for years as the best Troop (Voyskovaya) Air Defense  in the world. 

Some "average" Russian motor-rifle brigade, let alone division boasts organic air defense capability which is simply unmatched by anything in the West, not to mention, of course, separate Troop Air Defense formations which already today are capable of some serious anti-ballistic and hyper-sonic "heavy-lifting" and this was fully demonstrated in Ukraine, if anyone had any doubts about some deliberately limited capability demonstrated in Syria. The capabilities of something like S-300V4 are mouth-watering, and those are not marketing gimmick or sales pitch. So, generally speaking, the problem for NATO (and the US, of course) is that its foundational principle of "high success rate--low losses" turns itself upside down and becomes "high losses--low success rate". This is not the paradigm NATO is capable of handling and it blows out of the water the whole concept of the US SEAD operations, because it breaks down completely. 

Good ol' ideas of throwing hundreds of TLAMs of mid to late 2000s production run against air defenses of the 1960s and then "polishing" what's left with HARM's and laser guided munitions are long gone. For starters, any salvo will be met with much more devastating response. And if theoretically E-3 Sentry (those which will be allowed to fly) can detect track and develop the "vector" against slow 3M14 and X-101, against Iskander, P-800 Onyx let alone Kinzhal it wouldn't matter. I omit here 3M22 Zircon, which is a whole other story altogether. What good is Early Warning when you do not have a counter. Suddenly it works only for one single maneuver--running for one's life. So, the problem for NATO is fully vertical, it is tactical, it is operational, it is strategic and it is technological. You cannot fight with F-22 against modern (well, let's say it--cutting edge) air defense of such a "peer" as Russia. It is difficult to fight 21st century technology and battle-space management concept by such relics of the Cold War of 1980s as F-22 or, for that matter, with a dubious and equally expensive weapon system such as F-35. 

That is what Russians were saying for almost two decades but it was dismissed in the US as Russian rah-rah and sour grapes. And that brings us to the most important point: Russians, wrongly, until very recently--5 years give and take--thought that opponent with rational thinking and good awareness would understand what is being said to it and what is being shown. A lot of it was based on the assumption (wrong) that the US understands military implications and ramifications of what I called Real Revolution in Military Affair. No, not "revolution" which was being prematurely announced in the wake of an easy and one-sided beating of utterly incompetent, outgunned and outmaneuvered Saddam's army in 1991, but revolution which provides a radical departure from older concepts of the modern war and manifests itself not in some nauseating self-praise of a 20-year bully who just beat a 5-year old in the sand box into bloody pulp, but by tracking force correlation against equal, let alone better, opponent. 

So, here we are--already in the fifth week of Russian operation in Ukraine we can see shapes of the warfare to come in terms of technological edge and that is why combat use of Kinzhal created real shock and awe in NATO, not to mention the fact that we are yet to see full data on Russia's AD operations in 404 and that, believe me, will be a wowser. In related and welcoming news, Vladimir Putin signed yesterday an extremely important document: 

The order removes from the Scientific Council of Russia's Security Council some really uber-Atlanticists such as Sergei Rogov, Alexander Panov, the grandson of Andrei Gromyko and other peacenik who didn't like that Russia decided to finish off 404 and wrote a letter for peaceful resolution. Well, one of those signatories is Mr. Kortunov who is a darling of RT. The common thread here is that these people are all directly connected to MGIMO and despite their impressive humanities credentials are utterly ignorant on military-political realities of the moment and, as is true for majority of the political "scientists", cannot wrap their brains around military dimension of what they love to talk about--national security. Here is the "letter" I mentioned above (ha, site of Yabloko--surprise, surprise). As is expected, it is for everything good, against everything bad. 

Совместное заявление участников экспертного Диалога по сокращению рисков военной конфронтации между Россией и НАТО в Европе. 

You can use Google translate to read this hollow BS, it is the list of signatories which is very remarkable. I had a blast reading it, it also explains the scale of "purges" (nothing in common with Stalin ones) of all kinds of discredited talking heads most of who I wouldn't allow to mow my lawn due to their incompetence, but then again, most of these "experts" were in the process of being removed from real levers of power for some time now, it is good that now they and their "expertise" is removed from the intellectual environment around Russia's decision making centers. This is as huge of a news, as is the performance of Russian weapons and lack thereof of the American ones.

My, My, My...

The Wall Street Journal worries. To such a degree that it felt the need to write about Russia's "Checkmate" (presently also known as SU-75) and quote Rostec's big Honcho Sergey Chemezov. 

At Russia’s premier expo for military aircraft in July, Russian President Vladimir Putin inspected a prototype jet that is designed to take on more than enemy fighters. The lightweight stealth plane also is meant to cause geopolitical headaches for the U.S. The LTS Checkmate would be the world’s second single-engine fighter plane to incorporate the most sophisticated radar-evasion and command systems. The only other plane in this category, the F-35, manufactured by Lockheed Martin Corp. , is the most advanced plane in the U.S. arsenal. 

Chemezov flatly denies any geopolitical aspect to Checkmate, but he is just being polite--of course there is. While WSJ tries to put a positive spin on F-35 by making risible statements such as this:

The F-35 is in demand internationally, providing Washington a viable defense export that also helps advance U.S. security and diplomatic aims. Israel and Japan are among the 15 countries that have received the F-35 or reached agreements to buy it.

The 800-pound gorilla in the room cannot be ignored: F-35 which is a $100 million a pop combat failure loses outright on three (among very many) points:

1. It cannot fly properly, let alone supersonic, while you can bet your ass on Russian-made combat aircraft of any generation being able to fly, especially on the Izd. 30 engine with thrust vectoring. Do we need to go into discussing how Russian planes fly?

2. The issue of price. This is not even fair to compare. 

3. Let's drop this "Stealth" BS. Low or very low observability doesn't cloak you into "invisibility" bubble, especially against modern fused sensor suite on any modern combat aircraft, let alone modern AD systems. Turks can testify to it. 

So, yes, this Checkmate thing is designed to win market while providing a much better combat performance for a fraction of F-35 price. It is GEOPOLITICAL by default because it makes US clientele think twice about what they are buying from the US for their defense needs. Ask Germans, they acted geopolitically: 

Germany Doesn't Want the F-35 Stealth Fighter. The Bundestag made the announcement last week and comes as good news for the European multinational Airbus, which had affected by the coronavirus pandemic.

Germans wanted to keep manufacturing on the Continent. Plus, Germans made it patently clear in 2019 that rumors of F-35 "stealth" were grossly exaggerated. 

Stealthy no more? A German radar vendor says it tracked the F-35 jet in 2018 — from a pony farm. In the illustrious history of the F-35 fighter jet, add a pony farm outside Berlin as the place where one company claims the plane’s stealth cover was blown, writes Sebastian Sprenger for C4ISR.com.

While there are huge question regarding Europe's ability to compete across the whole spectrum of requirements for the modern warfare with the United States nominally, what one cannot deny is the fact that Europe's problems lie outside the classic nation-state (or military-political block) warfare and they are systemic in nature. Russia is not going to blow Europe to smithereens where she sells her hydrocarbons and even without it--what is Europe's value for Russia? Russians have their own problems with migration, albeit nowhere near as acute as in Europe, so, for now, at least, Europe will stick to her guns, so to speak, and will continue with her own Typhoon program. Those who will not, like Netherlands or Italy, they will have their hands twisted into buying F-35. 

But in the end, F-35 is itself a pure geopolitical tool, and always was, when one considers the US "credit history" with competition on international weapons markets. Turkey's precedent with purchasing of S-400 was a massive blow to American confidence and now India is under unstoppable pressure from the US to reverse her decision and, incidentally, a $5 billion contract with Russia for S-400s. In general, S-400, same as any updated S-300 series and other Russian air defense systems and F-35 are not "compatible" because they expose F-35 for what it is, a failure, and this is verboten in American "book". This is where it all crosses into the pure geopolitics and cash, a lot of it. This is not unique for the United States to "condition" the use of own weapons. Let me remind you: 

This all is in the open. It always was. Now, when former Soviet and Russian submariners also begin to talk, things get really complicated with the reputation of the America's weapon systems and enablers. If there is a field in which the United States really dropped the ball--it is a field of combat aviation. F-35 is a living proof of it and even massive America's spin machine and perception management "technology" cannot hide the fact of the United States losing a competition where it always claimed a leadership. In this case the appearance of a fighter which merely works for a fraction of the price of F-35, let alone being a very good combat aircraft, which, knowing Russia's propensity for producing good planes consistently, is highly probable, becomes a major geopolitical concern for the United States, because a shitload of money and prestige is at stake here. 

And the United States, certainly, doesn't know how to lose gracefully. Can you imagine a media circus when SU-57 will be offered for export, and it will be. 

P.S. For WSJ--learn the meaning of the word "advanced" when applied to warfare. Over-engineering and useless features do not apply to what makes things advanced. Combat effectiveness  does.

Those Good Ol' Systems.

Some people are in distress over yet another, how to put it politely, less than satisfactory performance by Israeli weapon systems. 

MOSCOW (AP) — Syria's air defense forces shot down seven out of eight missiles launched by Israeli warplanes during a raid that targeted the Syrian province of Aleppo, the Russian military said Tuesday. Rear Adm. Vadim Kulit, the head of the Russian military's Reconciliation Center in Syria, said that four Israeli F-16 fighter jets targeted facilities southeast of Aleppo in Monday's strike. Kulit said seven of eight missiles launched by the Israeli fighter jets were downed by Syrian air defense units that used Russia-supplied air defense systems Pantsyr-S and Buk-M2. One missile damaged the building of a scientific research center in Safira, he said. A Syrian military official previously said in remarks carried by the state news agency SANA that Israel carried out an aerial attack in the Aleppo province late Monday. He said that Syrian air defenses shot down most of the missiles in the attack that occurred just before midnight.

By now it became a routine, really. Israel gets its combat aircraft into the international air space and launches missiles at allegedly Iranian assets in Syria. Syrians, most likely, get early warning from Russians and then shoot down most of the missiles by S1s and Buks. Give Syrians Air Defense a due credit--they are getting really good at it. Obviously such numbers are very disturbing for the Israeli and the United States Air Forces which get a bit of a taste of what even fairly straight-forward and not newest, to say the least, Air Defense can do. Now, even when linearly extrapolated on Russian Air Defense, one gets a very good feel about "leakage" rates and survivability of attacking aircraft in case of real shooting war. A very low probability of such a survival. 

While the whole world discusses new Russian fighter whose first flight is scheduled in 2023 (in Russian), and, as it turned out, what is being shown to public IS NOT a static mock up but an actual aircraft which will take to the skies in 2023. I can hear cries from pain (you know, butt-hurt) from many quarters and I can hear Almaz-Antey laughing all the way to the bank. Now, about this 7.5 ton payload--rumor has it that this number is ONLY for the internal bays. If true (will know soon)--it is an amazing aircraft. Kyle Mizokami, being an ignorant journo that he is, tries, however, to put a good face on:

Could Checkmate indeed, uh, checkmate the F-35? It’s way too early to tell. But if UAC can keep costs down and stick to its development schedule, it could hurt the F-35 in the foreign sales market. The F-35 is the equivalent of a Mercedes Benz, but there are plenty of countries that would be perfectly happy to have a Hyundai.

For Myzokami:

The US Air Force Quietly Admits the F-35 Is a Failure

To call this barely flying POS a "high end" and compare it to Mercedes is an insult to good engineering and combat experience. On the other hand, Mercedes, together with most German cars, consistently takes the lead as one of the least reliable and monstrously expensive vehicles to fix. Alleged Mercedes' advantages over "competitors" (Toyota laughs at such statements), it's dick enlargement factor and "luxury" to feed the ego of wealthy has zero real value, and since Mizokami mentioned Hyundai I saw a new Sonata two days ago on the parking lot of our local Safeway--it is a gorgeous car for a fraction of price and has it all. At least Mercedes, when it drives, can drive fast, "high end" F-35 cannot even fucking fly supersonic:

The F-35 Has a Problem With Going Supersonic, But the DoD Does Not Want to Fix it

Let alone have super-maneuverability and super-cruise, which new Sukhoi "Checkmate" has. But sure...  

To understand the level of butt-hurt, stupidity and delusion of these people, enough to listen to America's foremost "patriot" and "expert" John Bolton, who with a straight face delivered this few days ago. 

Former national security adviser John Bolton insisted on Friday that the United States had not lost the war in Afghanistan while criticizing President Joe Biden’s order for a full military withdrawal from the country. Bolton — who served as a high-ranking State Department official under former President George W. Bush at the time of the initial U.S. military invasion of Afghanistan in October 2001 — maintained that America’s armed forces did not lose the two-decade conflict, but had simply “walked away from it.” “We weren’t defeated,” Bolton told CNN in an interview. “You have to be defeated to lose a war. We’ve given up because we’ve lost patience. That’s a sad commentary about the current administration, but it’s not a defeat for the United States.”

Yes, of course, if F-35 is a "high end" and a Mercedes of the combat aircraft, then who can forget a brilliant "victory" in Vietnam and surely "not being defeated" in Afghanistan.The level of a butt-hurt is off the scale.

Two Things To Remember Before...

...arguably the most important event in combat aerospace this year. I am talking, of course, about the unveiling of this Russia's "mysterious" single-engine fighter which is few hours away. Since this (or parallel) question popped up on this blog, when I was reacting to the article in Drive, I need to make some clarification.    

1. Whatever the aircraft will be unveiled tomorrow (for some--today) at MAKS-2021, this aircraft will be primarily the result of a very long discussion in Russia re: single-engine fighter. Russians always admired USAF F-16 which is still in service, albeit is nearing obsolescence. Russia's last single-engine fighter was MiG-23 Flogger which got a bad rap in the West but was loved by Soviet pilots. "Checkmate" moniker refers primarily to F-35 and not to some "future" aircraft from South Korea, China or Turkey. South Korean and Turkish aircraft cannot be "responded to" because they do not exists as viable aircraft yet. China has a single-engine aircraft but it is not a "fifth generation" fighter. The new Russian aircraft will be eventually driven by brand-new Item (Izdelie) 30 engine which will increase its performance and the Checkmate in this case is addressed to the USAF F-35 namely in combat performance. Especially, since rumor has it, it is a platform which has a lot in common with SU-57 and thus is easier manufactured in large numbers. 

2. Russia seldom creates something special purely for export, those are always degraded (aka monkey models) variants of Russia's technology for domestic use, but better performance (almost guaranteed) by this fighter, with dramatically lower price (100% so) and no strings attached (146%) when compared with F-35, definitely creates a new reality for F-35 as an export item. So, that means that the aircraft we may see tomorrow will be primarily for Russia's VKS, with its "simplified" version for export. 

There WILL BE a copious amount of butt-hurt tomorrow, but that is expected. It is something like John Kirby's response to the issue of Russia's yet another successful test of 3M22 Zircon yesterday. As Kirby stated at Pentagon's briefing, it is a threat because Russians can stick a nuclear warhead on Zircon, while the United States doesn't develop such systems. There is a lot to be said about it, but, hey, that's your media (a euphemism for BS) battlefront today. Admiral Gorshkov however, successfully launched one and couple-three minutes later it struck the target 350+ kilometers away, averaging M=7 during the flight. 

State test (which are final acceptance tests) for 3M22 are planned for August. So, tick-tock, tick-tock.... 

Russians Are Insulted, LOL.

They even reported that in Ria.ru (in Russian). I would be offended too. It is one thing when USAF paints its F-15 or F-16 of "aggressor squadrons" in RuAF colors, but painting F-35 and calling it a Russian Air Force combat aircraft? This is insulting. 

What kind of Russian aircraft should this F-35 imitate? SU-30SM, SU-35C? More like Il-2 or Yak-9, maybe MiG-15? Russians are livid, at least F-15 or F-16 are good aircraft. But the worst is, of course, sticking SU-57 livery on F-35 flying brick. That is an absolute no-no. 

On the other hand, it is, probably, the only chance for F-35 to realize its dream to be a world-class combat aircraft and turn and burn with the best of them--to pretend to be the one. In related news, all modern Russian combat aircraft ranging from SU-30 to SU-57 are netcentric capable machines, incorporating latest in data-sensor fusion and advanced sensor suite. Russians do it differently. Russian Air Force light attack--fighter--trainer Yak-130 has, literally, presets for emulating very closely type of flying by F-16, F-18 etc. 

I don't know if it has presets for F-35.  I am not sure it will be happy with those, wink-wink.

A Bit On Iranian Boeing And Other Business.

I. Going back to the unfortunate (tragic, really) downing of Iranian commercial B-737 in the wake of Iran's missile strike at US bases in Iraq in response to murder of General Soleimani. I maintain and will continue to maintain my position that Iranian missile from Tor-1 which downed this Boeing was launched due to:

a) Mounting pressure on combat crews of AD complexes around Tehran in anticipation of the American response which never came;

b) Possibly not a very good training of crews and failure to follow procedures (which procedures, that matters). 

And here is a clue that Iran was correct in anticipating of some sort of US response after missile strikes. Let's Russia's Sergei Lavrov speak.

Российские системы ПВО-ПРО контролируют воздушно-космическое пространство вокруг России на тысячи километров. Об этом заявил Сергей Лавров, сказавший о том, российские средства ПВО смогли обнаружить у границ Ирана шесть истребителей F-35 через несколько часов после ракетного удара по американским базам. По словам и.о. главы МИД РФ, "в это время в воздухе на границе с воздушным пространством Ирана было минимум шесть F-35. Эта информация еще требует перепроверки, но подчеркивает всю нервозность ситуации".

Translation: Russia's air-defense-anti-missile systems control air and space around Russia for thousands of kilometer. This was stated by Sergei Lavrov, who also stated that Russia's air-defense systems detected six F-35 fighters near Iran's border several hours after Iran's strike on US bases. In his words:"this time, in the air, near Iran's air border, there were minimum six F-35s. This information needs more clarification but it underscores the nervousness of this situation." 

Cannot get any clearer than that. But this also brings fourth couple of important issues: 

1. Trump, as POTUS, needs, ahem, just teeny-weeny bit better explanation on how things can and DO go wrong when people make stupid and irresponsible decisions;

2. Russia's tracked "invisible" F-35s thousands kilometers away using latest radar Container.  

While Russia's ability to detect, track and develop firing solution on VLO targets is news mostly for flag-waving fanboys, one thing which is noted by establishment Rossiskay Gazeta where the article originated is this:

А если говорить по Ирану, то у нас просто нет соглашения об обмене данных по противовоздушной обороне. Возможно, придется их заключать.

Translation: If to speak about Iran, we (Russia) do not have an agreement on the air-defense data exchange. Possibly, we need to have one.

Now the question, could Russia's NTSUO (National Defense Control Center) have at least tipped Iranians about incoming F-35s? Not only it is possible, it is very-very likely. Iranians, most likely, being under stress over anticipation of American attack, simply overreacted. Which, indeed, brings up the issue of Russia covering Iran's air space by early warning umbrella, thus allowing Iran to have track and targeting on any type of targets. That means, making Iran's aerospace largely impenetrable. But that is a whole other story in itself. This also shows that present and upcoming air-defense technologies not only are capable of detecting all those "super-invisible" targets, but able to track them and provide targeting. I do not need to comment on that anymore. 

II. One of the traits of Putin's leadership, which also manifests itself increasingly as time goes by, is his principle of making Russophobia an extremely expensive luxury for anyone who exercises it. Poland fits the bill perfectly. I will omit writing too much on this issue but as you may recall--I state non-stop that Holocaust, that is deliberate annihilation of Jews did happen, it is just that some numbers should be adjusted for Jews who actually died fighting and that Jewish Holocaust was not the only one. Slavs were deemed untermensch also and were murdered on an industrial scale. Read this piece by Israel Shamir to get a scoop on what really is going on.

President Putin is aware of the Polish controversy, and he decided to show the Poles that their relentless hostility to Russia just does not pay. A few weeks ago on December 24, at the meeting of the Russian Ministry of Defence, Putin presented certain documents of the World War Two period, attesting to the rabidly anti-Jewish attitude of the pre-war Polish leadership. For instance, Jozef Lipsky, the Polish ambassador to Nazi Germany until 1939, told the Germans that the Poles would erect a monument to the Reichskanzler Adolf Hitler in Warsaw if he were to rid Poland of its Jews. “Such an anti-Semitic pig!” – exclaimed Putin indignantly.

BTW, Israel DOES have now monument to people of Leningrad (this is not to mention May 9 being Israel's national holiday). 

Poland, meanwhile, equates USSR to Nazi Germany and desecrated monuments to Red Army soldiers who died liberating Poland from Nazism. Plus, of course, there is this "teeny-weeny" fact of Poles taking a very active part in murdering Jews and Russia is declassifying those archive documents as there is no tomorrow.  You see, and that is the whole point, Russians tried not to "disturb" memories in Soviet times in order to preserve a degree of harmony between various nationalities populating USSR. Such as trying to downplay a huge role of Ukrainian nationalists not only in helping Hitler, but excelling at murdering civilian population such as they did to Khatyn, among many other places. They repeated it in 2014 in Odessa. Now it is Poland's turn to face her own REAL history. 

In the end, it was the Red Army which liberated Auschwitz and many other places where horrendous atrocities had been committed against civilian population. Somebody tries to rewrite history. Not so fast. In the end, many world leaders will attend Moscow on May 9, 2020. Even Trump is considering a trip, granted he will not be betrayed by his "own" party. If he survives impeachment, he may find trip to Moscow to be most desirable. Where will Polish delegation be on May 9, 2020? In reality, nobody cares. After all, Russians and Nazis, in accordance to Polish "historiography", are the same. So, let it stay this way in Poland. Just expect few more skeletons being taken out of Warsaw's closet. And then there is Ukraine, but that shithole of a country requires a separate post (not that I want to do it) dedicated to it and pro-Polish agenda of US former National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski who fvcked it royally up for the United Sates on so many fronts that it may require a separate Ph.D level study of this "American" allegedly "scholar" contribution to a current American crisis. Not to mention a complete destruction of Russian-American relations.      

Pretty Much A Confirmation Of...

What professionals were talking about for a long time now. As being reported by a variety of media outlets around the globe: 

U.S. President Donald Trump's nominee to lead the Defense Department said Tuesday that Turkey's acquisition of the advanced Russian S-400 anti-air missile system is "wrong" and "disappointing." "You can either have the S-400 or you can have the F-35. You cannot have both," Mark Esper told lawmakers during his confirmation hearing before the Senate Armed Services committee. "Acquisition of the S-400 fundamentally undermines the capabilities of the F-35, and our ability to retain that overmatch in the skies."

The question here is not the fact that this whole "Stealth", or VLO (Very Low Observable), technologies are good only in the environment of a complete suppression of enemy's air defenses and air forces, which automatically implies third-fourth world armed forces, but the fact that somebody in Pentagon and Military-Industrial Complex still believed that F-35 was good for anything other than bombing barely armed with muskets backward aborigines into oblivion? OK, I got it, I write books on those topics but the issue here is not just myopia, or stupidity, or hubris, albeit these too play a major role in this doctrinal and operational disaster. Dmitry Orlov today wrote a superb piece on a subject which was discussed here and elsewhere not for once. Here is how Dmitry writes about it:

Within the vast bureaucratic sprawl of the Pentagon there is a group in charge of monitoring the general state of the military-industrial complex and its continued ability to fulfill the requirements of the national defense strategy. Office for acquisition and sustainment and office for industrial policy spends some $100,000 a year producing an Annual Report to Congress. It is available to the general public. It is even available to the general public in Russia, and Russian experts had a really good time poring over it. In fact, it filled them with optimism. You see, Russia wants peace but the US seems to want war and keeps making threatening gestures against a longish list of countries that refuse to do its bidding or simply don’t share its “universal values.” But now it turns out that threats (and the increasingly toothless economic sanctions) are pretty much all that the US is still capable of dishing out—this in spite of absolutely astronomical levels of defense spending. Let’s see what the US military-industrial complex looks like through a Russian lens.

Why so? Here it is:

What knocked Russian analysis over with a feather is the fact that these INDPOL experts (who, like the rest of the US DOD, love acronyms) evaluate the US military-industrial complex from a… market-based perspective! You see, the Russian military-industrial complex is fully owned by the Russian government and works exclusively in its interests; anything else would be considered treason. But the US military-industrial complex is evaluated based on its… profitability! According to INDPOL, it must not only produce products for the military but also acquire market share in the global weapons trade and, perhaps most importantly, maximize profitability for private investors. By this standard, it is doing well: for 2017 the gross margin (EBITDA) for US defense contractors ranged from 15 to 17%, and some subcontractors—Transdigm, for example—managed to deliver no less than 42-45%. “Ah!” cry the Russian experts, “We’ve found the problem! The Americans have legalized war profiteering!” (This, by the way, is but one of many instances of something called systemic corruption, which is rife in the US.) 

Ahh, warmer now. You see, it is akin to introducing into the Theory of Operations such thing as, say, US Dollar Adjusted Exchange Rate. This USDAER factor will be calculated the next way: say Russia and the United States go to war (God forbids): In the wee hours of this war Russians shoot down, say, 6 F-35s, while the United States shoots down 6 SU-35s. That automatically makes the United States a winner in such a war because, American USDAER in this case will be counted as 6 F-35 x $100 million = $600 million, divided by 6 SU-35 x $50 million = $300 million. You see, that means that USDAER for the United States will be 600/300=2 which is very good rate, since it means a much larger cash flow for US military contractors (and capitalization of their companies) than it will be for Russians whose USDAER is merely 300/600=0.5. Losers! You see, no matters how you fight, the United States will always come on top because it will have much larger USDAER than any enemy US fights. The beauty and power of this USDAER model, of course, can only be unlocked with the application of Financial Utility Combat Knowledge Integral Translator (also known as FUCKIT), which is a natural logarithm of ratio of a number of Wall Street brokers to the number of days they spent in operational zones combined. But I don't want to disclose many details of it. 

In fact, everything we know about warfare should be thrown out to the dumpster because all those Operational Theory and Strategy criteria are wrong! What kind of morons attend all those General Staff academies and colleges. Only Walls Street economists, all those magnificent MBAs and PH.Ds in Monetary Theory, know how to fight the war. $50 million-worth of hyper-sonic weapons are nothing against $20 billion-worth of Carrier Battle Group which they will destroy. Come on, look at the USDAER in this case: $20 billion/$ 50 million =  400! The exclamation Mark here does not imply Factorial. That's what I am talking about. But, of course, I am being facetious... and dumbfounded. To measure a military might of the state in profits is a new (no, I mean it),  new, word in military art. 

As famous Soviet movie masterpiece That Very Same Munchhausen foretold it 30 years ago: Me, to fight a war in this?! Don't you know that nobody fights today in single-breasted uniforms!

Don't you know that nobody fights today without... Stealth. Ahem. Yes, Leonid Bronevoy, our favorite Mueller, is (pains me to say was) as stellar as always in this unstoppable triumph of cinema and wit. Who would have thought that comic absurdity will become a reality 30 years later. But here it is. The more you lose the better (richer) you become. Another matter in all that, is the fact that the games are over and any wrong move may lead to a catastrophe in which all myths of US military omnipotence could be dispelled through disastrous loses and then...WHAT? I don't think anyone in US "elites" knows the answer.