Thursday, June 30, 2022

Some Off The Cuff Remarks.

Regarding some news today. Just finished the podcast with PolitWera and Vladimir Trukhan. We spoke about this too. 

1. Snake Island: purely political decision to remove Ukie "argument" about grain "blockade". Now Ukies started to de-mine approaches to Odessa and it will be very difficult for them to use the silly argument of Snake Island as an excuse. Militarily, VSU will not be able to place there anything because it will be immediately annihilated. The distance between Snake Island and Sevastopol is 260 kilometers--peanuts for P-800 Onix or any of the Kalibrs. VSU knows it and already stated that they have no intent to place anything there. They can't, even if they wanted to. I will omit here purely operational issue of Snake Island affair, which weakened the Odessa grouping of VSU dramatically. 

2. Per this (thanks to Larch who pointed this out):

(Bloomberg) -- A flight test of a hypersonic missile system in Hawaii ended in failure due to a problem that took place after ignition, the Department of Defense said, delivering a fresh blow to a program that has suffered stumbles. ... It didn’t provide further details of what took place in the Wednesday test, but said in a statement sent by email “the Department remains confident that it is on track to field offensive and defensive hypersonic capabilities on target dates beginning in the early 2020s.” “An anomaly occurred following ignition of the test asset,” Pentagon spokesman Navy Lieutenant Commander Tim Gorman said in the statement. “Program officials have initiated a review to determine the cause to inform future tests.” he said. “While the Department was unable to collect data on the entirety of the planned flight profile, the information gathered from this event will provide vital insights.”

But the funnies part is this. They cannot even hide the fact of being sore losers. 

Russia debuted a hypersonic air-to-ground missile in its attack on Ukraine. Adversaries don’t have to meet the rigorous standards set under the US defense acquisition system or face public scrutiny over delays and failure.

Obviously no normal people work for most US establishment media, but can they at least hire the ass-holes who have a clue, instead of the full o'shit ignoramuses? Don't hold your breath. But I am on record and I repeat:

a. Eventually the United States will be able to create a some sort of quasi ballistic (air-ballistic) hypersonic weapon akin to Russian Kinzhal. When? Who knows. Relatively soon--a few years. 

b. The US is nowhere near a hypersonic cruise-missiles such as 3M22 and it is not even at the start. Those technologies are deployed as fully functional weapon systems ONLY by Russia. 

c. US media, full of shit as always, continue to obfuscate the issue of hypersonics throwing into the mix two very different technologies: hypersonic air-ballistic missiles like Kinzhal and fully powered in flight surface launched anti-shipping and land attack 3M22 Zircon. There is a chance they simply do not understand a difference. 

3. Here are poor poor dears from the West crying about the SMO. The video is still full o' shit, including pseudo-"tactical" baloney spewed by all those "veterans". 

But as I already stated--these guys thought that learning how to shoot and read couple of combat and field manuals makes them such "professionals" in war. Right. 99% of them never heard of how operations are planned and why people attend military academies. Here is a simple explanation (I did it in one of my videos) from the US Naval War College:

None of those "soldiers of fortune" has any clue what operational and strategic level is and how wars are fought. But sure, they know how to do "tactical shit" and because of that think (or, at least, thought) that they know the war. Right and I am Mother Theresa. Which brings me to this issue:

4. For those who continue to refer to all those Colonel Cassads and their ilk: there is a reason I do not take them seriously. They are NOT military professionals, never were and will never become ones. Most of them are into this whole thing for personal reasons, much of which are related to self-realization and money. I also get paid for what I do, but at least I served almost 11 years in the Armed Forces, including at the Brigade Staff position. Just keep this in mind. 

Operational and Strategic level of war are very complex and require a very serious background not just knowledge of "tactical shit" and ability to read maps and knowing how to use ballistic tables (smart phones' apps, here we come) or understanding what mil is

In related news: 

Electricity prices in Europe are soaring again as the market starts to fear that energy shortages this winter would be much larger than expected a few weeks ago. The German power prices for next year, a benchmark in the European electricity market, have surged by 12 percent so far this week and were rising by 2 percent early on Thursday, according to Bloomberg estimates. Europe is grappling with filling gas storage in time for the winter, after Russia slashed supply to major EU consumers, including Germany and Italy, citing “technical reasons.” Germany and Italy dismissed Gazprom’s reasons for the lower flows and said the move was politically motivated.At any rate, the low Russian gas deliveries and the two-week maintenance on Nord Stream which will halt supply via the pipeline in July are making European governments and electricity market traders and participants nervous about gas and power supply.

That is a strategic level and as BTO sang: you ain't seen nothing yet. 

P.S. Somebody on interwebs "accused" me of "loving BTO". I never experienced more severe attack on my character than that. I never even liked sons of bitches, I abhor their sound. What I said was: they surely can play. And they can--great musicians. Just wanted to clear this blemish on my musical tastes. Same goes for Molly Hatchet--horrible sound, awesome musicians. 

Wednesday, June 29, 2022

I Fully Agree With Larry Here.

In his latest he notes: 

I believe one of the reasons many Americans carry such negative feelings about the Russians is our collective failure to understand the price Russians paid to defeat Hitler. The sad truth is that most Americans have trouble identifying the warring parties in World War II and generally believe that terrible conflict was settled because of what America did. The American people are good folk at heart. They genuinely want to help the less fortunate or the beleaguered. But, during the last 75 years, American politicians cynically have used this trait to convince the public to back foreign wars that killed hundreds of thousands of civilians. All of this bloodshed was done under the banner of promoting freedom and democracy. Yet, if you ask the folks in Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Panama, Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, the Balkans, Libya and Syria how they view the U.S. “help”, they have what can charitably be called a “different perspective.”

This is the issue I wanted to discuss. I am categorically against dehumanizing Americans. Of course, American "elites" are degenerate and corrupt to the core, but if we take a look at a broader picture--and I am speaking here from my rich experience--majority of your everyday Americans are decent people. As anywhere it is not black and white, there are many colors and shades of grey. Same could be stated about Russia--as anywhere else there are many good people, but there are some jerks and ass-holes too. There is some corruption. It is never clear cut. It is the tragedy of the American people that they have been bamboozled into believing a lot of crap. But you know what I do for a living--I essentially educate people, not just Americans. I am no peacenik, sometimes wars are inevitable and even needed, but I always was categorically against making sweeping generalizations, especially about people so diverse and complex as Americans. 

IT is a tragedy that people who see no value in many American institutions which even 30 years ago were working, are now in power and drive the country into the ground, especially American institutions which DID constitute a legitimate national political tradition  to be proud of. But it is very easy to trick people, especially so insulated historically from the rest of the world by two oceans. But one of the things which you have to appreciate about Americans it is the fact that (you can easily find the results) overwhelming majority of them, despite incessant 24/7 anti-Russian propaganda in media, didn't buy "Putin" and "Russia" as the main culprits of America's huge economic problems. This cannot be stated with such conviction about Europeans, majority of who are genuine articles in so far as "Russian threat" and "Russia did it" goes. 

Yes, there is, of course, American public' responsibility too for what is going on right now around the world, but so far some core beliefs, be them constitutional or Christian, still survive in the United States and this strata where they survive is very large, capable to correct somewhat the country's course, however narrow the window of opportunities becomes. This is NOT the case in Europe. Larry provides good numerical review of Americans' foolhardy attitude to wars, but also let's recall that these were Americans who overwhelmed their representatives, senators and Obama's White House with phone calls and e-mails when Obama was contemplating a full blown war on Syria. The war was stopped. You know the rest of the story. So, let us all keep things into proper perspectives and keep in mind that, in reality, neocons and Christian Zionists, among other fundamentalist religious and political sects in the US, are not by far representative of the majority of American people. There are many truly decent and honest folks in the country, and the more you move away from Washington D.C. or coastal cities, the more their number grows, almost exponentially. In the end, they voted for Trump because they believed that he really cared and his program was sensible, especially in terms of wars and military alliances. People bought it. He lied, but people believed a good lie, not some aggressive neocon BS. So, let's keep this in mind.  As Larry concludes:    

I believe the American Republic would be well served to take Adam’s words to heart and construct a new foreign policy that is not based on sending our troops abroad to die in meaningless wars. The good heart that powers America still beats. But it is under assault at home. Russia does not threaten our Republic. Our peril is at home.

I agree fully. I also know many Americans understand that. Very many, and while they understand that--there is a hope. Educating people is a slow process, but it is strategic in its objective.  

Typical Putin)))

 Often, stating obvious is the best retort. 

BoJo better take advice of one of the greatest statesmen of the last 70 years at least. This is the only chance for BoJo to leave the memory of self not as a petulant adolescent boy who is incapable to run a 7-11 store, but at least simply yet another incompetent British politician. The latter is certainly better than the former. Yes, visiting the gym once in a while is a good idea, instead of wasting the time flying to see a clown from Kiev. Who knows, maybe getting busy with solving UK's gigantic economic and political problems may occur to BoJo too? Nah, don't hold your breath...  


As most of you know, I am only marginally interested in the everyday "tactical" minutiae of SMO, because now it is mostly ruthless extermination of what's very little left of VSU and sorting out these co called Territorial Defense Troops of Ukraine which are nothing more than modern iteration of the Volkssturm and have no chance against LDNR forces, let alone regular Russian Army. But while this situation is ongoing, some other very important things happen elsewhere. No, I am not talking about Turkey removing veto for Finland and Sweden joining NATO--in a larger scheme of things it changes very little for Russia. But this, below, does:

Following agreements reached during the January official visit to Moscow by Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi, President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, to further develop and deepen bilateral relations between Iran and Russia, the countries have decided to jointly revive the North-South Transport Corridor. This decision has become particularly relevant against the background of the unlawful sanctions policy pursued by the United States and its Western allies against Russia and Iran, and Tehran’s and Moscow’s desire to establish trade routes that are not linked to the West. In order to implement this decision, Iranian authorities are seeking to revive the recently stalled International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) project, which traverses Russian and Iranian territory and the two countries’ waters to connect with Asian export markets. As the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported on June 11, in order to implement the International North-South Transport Corridor, the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL) has initiated the transit of cargo from Russia to India or to South Asia through the project, using just one consignment note for the entire transit route.

This is this corridor. 

Geopolitical ramifications are huge for the region, especially when both Iran and Azerbaijan, which will have new railway built connecting Russia and Iran, capable to handle large rail traffic of cargoes ranging from wheat to oil, to metals etc. As article notices:

The International North-South Transport Corridor emphasizes the Russian port of Astrakhan and the Iranian Chabahar as bases for further transport to Eurasia. The development of the latter, as well as the construction of a large petrochemical complex and an export terminal near the port of Jask, are projects being implemented by the Iranian government as part of the Mokran coastal development strategy. Nevsky Shipyard, which produces multipurpose dry-cargo ships of RSD49 (deadweight of 7150 tons, container capacity of 289 TEU) and 005RSD03 (container capacity of 225 TEU) projects, is also engaged in the work of the North-South transit corridor in building ships for the Caspian Sea.

This brings us to the part of Russia's shipbuilding industry which concentrates on construction of those River-Sea vessels, like these:

Nevsky Shipyard has the order for 10 of these, other shipyards also build those or similar to them transports. Caspian Sea may get even busier in terms of marine traffic in coming years. This is a very important piece of news. Together, of course, with EU now trying to "resolve" Kaliningrad "blockade" and promising to iron out details in a few days.

VILNIUS/BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Trade through Lithuania to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad could return to normal within days, two sources familiar with the matter said, as European officials edge towards a compromise deal with the Baltic state to defuse a row with Moscow. Kaliningrad, which is bordered by European Union states and relies on railways and roads through Lithuania for most goods, has been cut off from some freight transport from mainland Russia since June 17 under sanctions imposed by Brussels. European officials are in talks about exempting the territory from sanctions, which have hit industrial goods such as steel so far, paving the way for a deal in early July if EU member Lithuania drops its reservations, said the people, who declined to be named because the discussions are private.

Of course, they are private. In the West everything now is private and secret because public is completely excluded from any "democratic" process and should know only one thing--how unified and powerful combined West is, because, obviously, the reality is exactly opposite. But who cares about reality in West's political "elite"? I doubt many can even grasp it. But they surely are very "cultured". 

I believe Ben Wallace is a typical representative of British "elite"--barely educated and low-cultured, and I am on record on the "quality" of Sandhurst "products". They are good for barking, not very good for real fighting against real enemies. I guess Wallace senses this, being a defense secretary of a toy army of a toy country. Pink Floyd were wrong when singing about "hanging on a quiet desperation is the English way". Ben Wallace's desperation is that of a bellicose and verbose jester at the plastic throne.

Tuesday, June 28, 2022

The Germans We Knew.

Yes, real Germans. Who knew it all and were our buddies. I recall 4th Flotilla out of Warnemunde (all officer corps graduates from our naval academy) and girls from Rostock. It almost feels like a parallel universe. 

Germany wanted freedom. Well, Russians had no problems with keeping German warrior spirit alive. It was the US who wanted Germans to be wussified completely.
But then again, can you imagine modern Germany showing this?
Not to speak of this?
Ah, wait, they still have this Ensemble Friedrichstadtpalast. You don't want to see their latest;))

They Ran From Lysichansk...

 ... And, of course, they have been "caught". By Russian artillery. 

The issue, however, is in this calming music and also weeping of some people who still have ideas that these are someone's sons and fathers. Well, let's face it--it is now much more complex than this, especially when you see a command core of a brigade of VSU (10th mountain assault brigade) abandoning their personnel and trying to escape--a familiar story by now, told by Ukrainian troops themselves. So, it is not Russian propaganda. It is a complex issue, the one I call "Lieutenant Dan" issue from Forest Gump. 
But in a historic dark irony--it is impossible to explain to some Washington swamp creature that the United States, for all its huge failures, has a much more realistic claim to actual military history than whatever is called today Ukraine. Some people cannot even wrap their brains around this dark historic irony, if not sarcasm, because military history was never a strong point in the US. As the good acquaintance of mine from Baku, Colonel, the veteran of Afghanistan, told me:"Everyone wants to live." I witnessed it myself too. Is 404 worth dying for? Those who planned it for them never faced any real danger in their life--they tend to congregate in Washington D.C.

And That Is Important Exactly How?

Desperate times--desperate headlines. Morons from WSJ want to show how tough and powerful the US is. 

Oil Tanker Is Stopped by U.S. in Transit From Russian Port to New Orleans. Ship carrying oil products was chartered by commodities trader Vitol, which said it complied with sanctions against Russia.  

OK, here is the full story from Reuters: 

June 28 (Reuters) - U.S. authorities have stopped an oil tanker traveling from Russia to New Orleans to check whether it is Russian in origin, a source confirmed to Reuters. The Vitol-chartered vessel was shipping intermediate oil products including vacuum gasoil and fuel oil from Russia's Taman port to New Orleans last week, according to a trading source and shipping data. The products were due to reach a Valero refinery in the New Orleans region, two sources said.

LOL. So, they decided to check it. Sure. That is what customs do. But yes, same as Russia's "default", which is nothing but a PR trick by the financial propaganda outlets in the West, it changes absolutely nothing, since:

1. Russia serviced the debt in Rubles;

2. People have access to those money. 

But Russia doesn't care about all those fraudsters from Moody's, IMF or World Bank. In fact, Russia is having an issue--too much cash, too strong Ruble. 

So, default you say, eh? Russians don't care about US Dollar, they use Ruble, which is supported by huge resources, huge economy and gold. And, of course, rests on a massive fire power of Russian Armed Forces. It becomes increasingly clear that Western ruling "elite" has no idea what real economy is, let alone how it operates. The only thing they know and can do is virtue signalling and PR.

Monday, June 27, 2022

Alex Gives A Good Aye-Yai-Yai On G-7, Larry About Denazification And Something Else.

Larry gives an excellent historic introspective of the meaning of denazification of Ukraine in his latest.  

Meanwhile, Alex Cristoforou did an excellent job covering G-7 summit and his comments, including his really appropriate "Aye-Yai-Yai" are spot on. 

While we all observe a complete intellectual and moral decomposing of the Western ruling class, here is Colonel MacGregor on... orgies and degeneracy of the Washington's "elite".

But here is a very interesting twist in MacGregor's statement about those people in D.C. thinking that they are "immune to persecution". Obviously, he speaks about internal US justice system, however compromised. But if you recall, I reminded everyone four months ago about a different kind of persecution. I spoke about it since 2014. I will remind you about a very recent one:

Russia was very meticulous in collecting and systematizing all the records of the atrocities and military crimes the West has committed around the world. Scholz also should recall that Germany played a decisive role in overthrowing a legitimate, however corrupt, Yanukovich government in 2014. There are many people in Germany, ranging from politicians to media, to German intel services, whose names are well known and who have a rap sheet which many thugs from  Chicago can only dream about.  Moreover, unlike Chicago thugs, these well nurtured and dressed ladies and gentlemen do this on a massive scale. 

They are not entirely stupid, because some of them can see where the West is going. In fact, a rough equivalent of Russia's deadly 1990s and chaos for both EU and the US are already here. Things will only get much-much worse with further disintegration of statehood institutions in the Western world and inevitable shake up in elites, because present ones are leading the West towards a complete political and cultural disintegration. This time is not far away. For the United States it is already here and the process is fairly advanced. Once Russia concludes consolidation of her economic and military position vis-a-vis combined West, which by that time will be in a deeper turmoil, the indictments will follow. These ones will be in relation to Western politicos and media. As I already stated, there are many of them who are guilty in assisting or instigating mass murders all around the world and the worst outcome for them is accelerating degradation of Western political and military institutions, which prior to 2014 were the ONLY guarantee for them to never face war-crimes tribunal. 
There are very many war criminals and criminals against humanity  in D.C. and EU capitals. Some of them may and some will face war crimes tribunal, because there is no statue of limitations for war crimes and crimes against humanity. And this deeper turmoil is not just coming, it is here and none of the so called G-7 is immune to it and that, inevitably, will bring not only economic but political turmoil and then... well, all those security details of rich and powerful are amateur kids compared to people who will be looking for their masters. But that is the separate topic altogether.

The Endspiel.

This, in chess, is called "the end game". Primarily in chess, in other sports and war they use this term too.  

The isolation of the West continues, hence desperate (and stupid, I may add) attempts to "blockade"  Kaliningrad, which will cost Lithuania her economy and no, Russia will not "follow" the US plan to start a war in Europe to allow the US repeat its saving from catastrophe on the eve of the WW II, which DID save the US. Washington's primitive historic and geopolitical thinking is so transparent that Russia had very little problem anticipating West's behavior. Here is one example out of many. 

Here is Marshal Rokossovsky ferry. She is a very respectable vessel of 12,000 tons dead weight and she is already servicing the route Ust-Luga--Kaliningrad. Her sister-ship Marshal Chernyahovsky is undergoing sea trials as I type this. Both ferries are designed in St. Petersburg but were constructed at Turkish shipyard Kuzey Star, because Russian shipyards are simply too busy. More vessels of similar class are getting ready to join this route which is already serviced (IIRC--please check yourself) by other 9 vessels. 

Will NATO fleets dare to interdict this SLOC? Do not put it past desperate Washington, but then again, they will have to consider Russia's Baltic Fleet and those pesky Kinzhals, Zircons and Onixes with Kalibers, which can sink any combination of NATO navies not only within Baltic Sea but in their respective bases. The argument that this way of supplying Kaliningrad is more expensive than by rail is absolutely invalid. Yes, it is more expensive--but Russia will subsidize and she is awash in cash, in fact many in Russia do not want such a strong Ruble too--but it is more expensive for the peace time, it is not a peace time and this mode of supplying the Kaliningrad exclave works just fine. 

And, of course, Argentina applying to BRICS and Bolsonaro being on the phone with Putin constantly gives a hint that Russia doesn't view American "sphere of interest" as untouchable. It is the end game for the United States and its lapdogs from EU. So much so that this proverbial fantastical thinking begins to dominate everything in the West. 

The idea of putting a price cap on Russian oil exports in order to keep the oil flowing but reduce the Kremlin's revenues from it might sound rather exotic at first glance—but the idea has been around for a few weeks now. It did just get a major push at the G7 meeting that began last weekend, but the challenges to its implementation are quite substantial. An oil price cap for Russian crude was first floated during talks between U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and EU officials on finding a solution for the inflation problem while limiting Russian oil revenues. It quickly became clear that limiting Russian oil exports was not the best idea. The United States, the UK, and, more recently, the EU, have all imposed bans on the imports of Russian oil and oil products, but China and India have stepped up their purchases as Russian crude trades at a sharp discount to the international benchmark. The EU, meanwhile, is buying up Russian fuels ahead of the embargo that will come into effect at the end of the year.

You know what I am doing with these so called "policies"? Right, I declare myself a Superman and then call on Sergei Victorovich Lavrov to give a short summary of the situation with Western "elites". 

For those who are new to my blog, this is Lavrov at press-conference with Saudi foreign minister a few years back, where he reacts to this minister's statement by whispering--Дебилы, блядь--Imbeciles, fuck. Applies fully to the West. In fact, even more so.

Sunday, June 26, 2022

Fantastical Thinking As MO...

Fantastical thinking began to dominate Western political mind somewhere around early 1990s and it never subsided. Many do think fantastically, it is nothing new, daydreaming is one such example, or, for that matter, "discussions" on the "tactics" of Maverick from the latest Top Gun, as if people are talking not about purely fictional BS but about serious tactical and operational reality. But it is one thing when some 35+ years old boy discusses Maverick's maneuvers in the latest flick, totally another when the admiral (right) of the US Navy parades himself as a clown.

Ukraine will determine the terms of any peace deal with Russia, US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told the state-run Voice of America broadcaster on Friday. While others have suggested that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky should cede some territory for peace, Kirby said Washington is preparing for what could be “a prolonged conflict.”... Kirby insisted that Ukraine can fight on, and told Voice of America that “Mr. Zelensky is going to get to determine what victory looks like.” “Of course, we want Ukraine to succeed on the battlefield, and we want them to succeed at the negotiating table, if and when it comes to that,” Kirby continued. “We’re not at that stage right now. But we believe that President Zelensky is the one who gets to determine what victory looks like. “Our job is to make sure that he has the tools available to him to do that in the most efficient, effective way.”

Of course, Mr. Kirby's admiral rank is a some kind of accident, because his resume is rather subdued. And one has to wonder why he remained a restricted line officer, not eligible for command at Sea, before going to... PR. Obviously spewing BS came naturally to him and that is why he thinks fantastically and continues to propagate things so "advanced" for real military science and real military professionals, that the issue arises not about his professional adequacy which is non-existent, but of his mental state, because he introduces a new concept: utterly defeated power dictating terms of peace. In related news, Clausewitz was proven wrong by Kirby because classic Clausewitz dictum about war's main objective being "to compel the enemy to do our will" by means of war, a euphemism for defeating the enemy, is, apparently wrong. Mr. Kirby and many US generals are, evidently, convinced about it now. 

Take fantastical thinking by such US military "analysts" as Generals Petraeus or Keane and you will see that Mr. Kirby is not alone. I will omit here description, done on many occasions by me, of psychiatric reasons for such a fantastical thinking, but here is truly genuine US combat officer who for decades is consistent in his views, many of which (not all) were correct, speaking about why when meeting with Churchill in Moscow in August 1942 (where Sir Winston went to inform Stalin personally that there will be no Second Front), Stalin noted that "Great Britain is a sea animal, Russia is a land animal."

MacGregor speaks here about what Glantz and House spoke for decades--a complete flipping of WW II history from feet to the head. Many, even in Pentagon, still cannot grasp the scale and the scope of Soviet operations in WW II and that is why so many in the West toil tirelessly to rewrite the history of WW II in such a way as to arrive to Earl Ziemke's conclusion that Nazis were defeated on the secondary theaters of operations or on June 6, 1944 with D-Day commencing. But I am ON RECORD for many years, the US Army never fought anything comparable in scale and scope of present day SMO. Unless one wants to insist that, not taking anything away from heroism of Allied soldiers or tactical and operational capability of Allied officers, Battle of the Bulge eclipses Stalingrad, Kursk or famous "10 Stalin's Strikes", including full demolition of Wehrmacht starting with Operation Bagration. Here is David Eisenhower, the grandson. 

The explanation for consistent failure to forecast or anticipate anything from Russia is easy: it is a combination of arrogance and incompetence, exacerbated by a deep seated complex of inferiority. That is why this history of the events will be steadily erased from the Western historiography until the world of fantastical history, in which the United States is omnipotent and omnipresent power "for good" will substitute reality. 

Meanwhile, while Kiev is getting ready to "dictate" terms of peace (a euphemism for the US feeling a coming defeat and, thus, BSing people), Russian forces, who, evidently, "ran out of ammo" and smart munitions, today wiped out three brigades, by means of massive strike by stand-off weapons, of VSU, namely 65th, 66th motor-rifle brigades and 46th aeromobile brigade (in Russian). Somebody, explain to BoJo and Kirby that Russia fights "economically" to save as many civilians as possible, but can turn on the pain dial to more than 11 and somebody in the West begins to recognize it. As per Russian Navy, since post-WW II period it was, is and will remain a classic Sea Denial force with very limited "power projection" capability--two-three serious (maybe four) LHDs and, maybe, two-three aircraft carriers, not counting Kuznetsov. How they will look like? Who knows. Russia "... goes not abroad, in search of monsters to destroy. She is the well-wisher to the freedom and independence of all." What a historic irony that John Quincy Adams unwittingly meant Russia of 2022, not just the United States of 1821.

Saturday, June 25, 2022

On A Lighter Note.

LOL))) I checked, yep that's the guy.  

BBC should make a report on him, and a crew of the tank;)

Larry Notes...

... that even the Sky News cannot hide this anymore. 80% losses of VSU formations, well, no Western establishment media outlet is still ready to talk in full about the truth. But Larry gives them (and neocons) a hint:

If you can imagine losing 80% of the 82nd Airborne or 80% of Delta Force, then you can understand the horrible significance of these losses for Ukraine’s ability to field a competent fighting force. Reinforcing depleted units with untrained men is not a solution. Plugging untrained war bodies into formerly elite units does not translate into a force capable of fighting effectively. The art of unit war includes knowing how to maneuver under fire, how to set ambushes, how to establish fields of fires, how to communicate with headquarters and how to clean and maintain weapons in the midst of combat. Ukrainian men press ganged into the Ukrainian Army during the past 10 weeks cannot be trained in such a short period of time to master these skills.

Some die hard neo-cons continue to manifest their ignorance of military affairs by pointing to Russia’s slow progress in taking Severodonetsk as evidence of Russia’s incompetent, weak army. What they fail to understand is that Russia was trying to avoid killing the civilians still inside Severodonetsk, who were being used as human shields by the Ukrainians. Putin and the Russian commanders are placing a higher value on saving civilians rather than unleashing their full military might in order to show the world what they can really do. This is a remarkably mature military strategy.

And here is the issue. While waiting today for urgent root canal appointment (it turned out to be root canal, not extraction as I initially wanted) I hung around Barnes & Noble and while trying to sip on my medium-rare (I mean, not hot) latte I went for the Air Forces magazine

It was May issue. Good God, people. Never in my life did I come across allegedly "professional" or, as they love to claim "officially number one authority in the world on aviation", publication filled with so much pure BS (how about their claim of the failure of RuAF EW?) and unsubstantiated claims, at least they admitted that "the ghost of Kiev" was an 'urban legend", that one can immediately conclude that those "professionals" are nothing more than amateurs who never encountered real air war and REAL SEAD operations against capable air defense. In other words, all they were writing was a feeble attempt at controlling a narrative. Of course, it is all based on their own "understanding" of "serious" air operations and, of course, Kiev propaganda and "leaks", because no one in Russia would allow those losers nowhere near operations of RuAF. 

I wanted to buy this magazine (only $14) but then decided not to waste my hard earned buck on something which cannot be even used as a reserve toilet paper in the hour of need, which is coming, since the damn thing is glossy and is so full of pseudo-"analytical" BS, that one has to be aware of possibility of getting penetrated by serious butt-hurt in case of using this publication in the toilet after "the business", if you know what I mean. This brings us to an utter failure in general of even "professional" tech and forces publications in the West and them being reduced to nothing more than military porn equivalents of the glamour magazines such as Vogue or, in the best case, Country Living. Same goes for those numerous "analytical" military porn web-sites which love to claim to have an understanding of operations, but most of them being nothing more than propaganda. 

In related news, I WILL watch the new Top Gun, once I gather enough spiritual strength to last through it, because the concept of F-14 fighting with Su-57 is down right bizarre. 

And lively "discussions" of all kinds of fanboys and military "experts" from mama's basement on the "tactics" of that is rather hilarious. But then again, I read today the magazine and learned that effectively grounded and suppressed within first 2-3 weeks of the SMO Ukie Air Force managed to mount "a resistance". Yes, by means of flying random sorties one can count on the fingers of one hand and because Russia's EW and ECM "failed". My tooth hurts like hell after root canal today, but at least the nerve is gone, judging by the Air Forces publication, my tooth ache is nothing compared to Air Forces severe and increasing butt-hurt. Worst of all, one cannot remove the dying nerve from down there and, as I am on record, reality, like gravity, is a bitch and when it bites... I would rather stick to root canal procedures and "Top Gun Maverick". 

Friday, June 24, 2022

Alexander's Excellent Review Of Events.

I think it is a very good video by Alexander, so I post it here. 

Plus, he knows internal European dynamics much better than me. 

Well, Sure...

It is not some funny papers issued by the Wall Street. 

What do you expect? Of course, between the food and the IOU from some drunk bum, most normal people will chose food--it is real, it is vital for survival and it might be even delicious. IOU? Unless one is on the paper-eating diet. In related news:

Germany is free to do whatever she deems necessary, it is not going to change anything because German economy is dying and nothing can prevent it from doing so, especially now that the last iota of the even neutral attitude towards Germany (as a country, not individual Germans) is gone from Russia, and it is all for the better. Germany is the enemy of Russia and it is a very positive development--I repeat it not for the first time--that all illusions about some Russian-German "alliance" are gone. As is true for most of Europe. And this too, is for the better.

Thursday, June 23, 2022

Never Rush To The Conclusions.

I like Sam Chui. He is no BS air traveler and aircraft enthusiast with deservedly huge audience. I am one of his subscribers and love his air travel reporting on all kinds of the aircraft around the world. The SMO, however, did not leave, always out of politics, Sam and he had to make a video about the fate of Russian commercial aviation. It is not only understandable but good that it was made. But, and here is the problem, ever "prescient" (sarcasm on) aircraft journos (yes, people who write about industry but are not real industry professionals) and the opinions of the aviation "specialist" Jon Ostrower are especially remarkable. Just listen:

Ostrower's claims that Russia's aviation was set back by 30 years in one day and especially his quip about maps made me laugh, no, I mean it. This is the expertise one gets when, despite the fact of having a license for piloting of small aircraft one has this as a background. This is his profile from Linkedin. 
So, the guy has a background in... Political Communications, that is to say that he has no education at all, and writing for WSJ or CNN automatically disqualifies him from writing anything Russia related because he would write a BS. He did, not wrote, but spoke but this is how idiotic narratives get spread around the US. Mind you, I, unlike Ostrower, have a graduate engineering degree and for long years ran the laboratory of the Tier-1 subcontractor of Boeing and Bombardier, among others, and, for all intents and purposes, was an insider of the industry and especially its Quality Management requirements and a whole lot of things related to safely flying commercial aircraft, such as Boeing-737-800 among many. In other worlds, my day would start with Boeing and Bombardier manuals and other production documents and will end with knowing every single in and out of both ASTM Vol 15.03 (testing reqs for Aerospace Industry), not to mention the fact that I worked with many former Boeing employees and even former naval aviators. So, allow me to comment now. 

As you all know, I am on record that Western in general, and American in particular, "knowledge" of Russia is practically non-existent and that is true across the whole spectrum of Russia's activities ranging from economy, to military, to education, to science and R&D and Ostrower is an exhibit A of such ignorance, despite his many, namely media, titles. I am not saying that Russia doesn't have problems, she surely does, but Ostrower, obviously, fails, as is it is normal for all kinds of Western "experts", to grasp the nature of problem they try to comment on. 

1. His claim that Russia was set back 30 years in one day in terms of commercial aviation is preposterous and betrays in him a typical Western media hack with zero engineering background. And here is why. 

a) Historic Russia, USSR and modern day Russia was always a powerhouse in civilian aviation. One of the first things young "reformers" were tasked with was a destruction of the remnants of the Soviet commercial aerospace industry and they almost succeeded by the end of 1990s. But not quite. And while the combined West was "celebrating" its commercial success, as always it rushed and we see it today. Ostrower, evidently, has difficulty understanding that the country which completely out of own resources produces in large serial batches state-of-the-art combat aircraft such as SU-35C or SU-57 among many others, and which has a massive designer school in commercial aviation, including its huge contribution to the design of Boeing commercial aircraft such as B-787, among others, will be able to manufacture commercial aircraft on her own. 

b) Unlike it was the case in 2010, today Russia has fully operational and large industry of composite materials and she has not only venerable but still very much good high bypass turbofans such as PS-90A (Russian President doesn't mind flying it), but already has PD-14, which is in serial production. In general, Ostrower should keep himself abreast on Russia's commercial aviation development just by visiting RosTec site and by reading news which preceded Sam's video.    

c) Obviously, the West introduced all possible sanctions but, that is for the better because now both SSJ New and MC-21 become fully russified. But as a stop gap measure (Russians are damn good at it) is precisely where Russia's older but still excellent aircraft come in. 

The impact of international sanctions has raised many questions about how Russia can keep its planes in the air. Boeing and Airbus have both suspended support for aircraft operated by Russian airlines, including halting the provision of new parts, maintenance, and technical support services.  This has prompted Russia to consider reviving domestic aircraft programs, particularly the Tupolev Tu-214 and the Ilyushin Il-96. At the end of March 2022, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov announced that Kazan-based aerospace manufacturer Kazan Aircraft Production Association (KAPO) is expected to produce 10 Tu-214s per year.  Later, on April 1, 2022, Andrei Yelchaninov, a member of the Board of the Military-Industrial Commission of Russia, revealed Russia could set up an additional aircraft manufacturing center in Kazan, the capital city of the Republic of Tatarstan, to avoid a shortage of spare parts as it continues to feel the effects of international sanctions amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  The new facility, which could launch operations in 2023, is expected to produce parts for various types of aircraft but will mainly focus on the supply of spare parts for domestically made planes, such as the Tupolev Tu-214 and the Ilyushin Il-76. 

This was in April, by now (AFAIK) the number was revised to 20 TU-214s a year and this is an excellent plane which uses PS-90As and Russian avionics. The only thing which would be considered "backward" in it is the fact that it still uses a third crew member--an engineer. But I am sure after Boeing-737 Max which is effectively a 60 year old design freak and tends to kill people due to being "designed by clowns who in turn are supervised by monkeys", is a small price top pay for safety. How's that "automation" worked out for 350+ dead people, Mr. Ostrower? 

Here is TU-214 flight in 2014 from Irkutsk to Moscow. Passengers love this plane, actually. 

It is very comfortable and is a rough equivalent of the B-757. 

2. The issue of "maps" is altogether risible, since Ostrower, obviously, never heard of both Russia's GLONASS and Russia's map industry being one of the best in the world, ranging from nautical to air charts. Especially now, when Russia aircraft do not fly to Europe or North America. But this simple fact is not known to Ostrower. 

3. Per the park of foreign aircraft which Russia retained due to sanctions, and these are anything from A-320neo and A-321 to B-737-800 and B-777s, as Russia's engineers are on record--there will be very little problem with producing spare parts for them domestically. Again, the nation which produces in aerospace field what Russia produces will have little trouble servicing whatever commercial aircraft. And that brings us to the final point. 

4. For many in the West, including Mr. Ostrower, the concept of the country being self-sufficient in practically anything is absolutely inconceivable since all these media figures, especially of Ostrower's age (and he is a young fellow), are the products of the Western globalist "education" (in reality dumbing down) which excludes completely even the fleeting grasp of the concept of self-sustainability, if not almost autarky. Not surprising for an American "expert" with degree in nothing who grew up in the country where everything ranging from the TV sets and smart phones to washing machines and computers is produced elsewhere, but not the US, such a concept could produce a serious cognitive dissonance. Especially nowadays, when this country "with economy smaller than that of Netherlands" or a "gas station masquerading as a country" is basically crushing the combined West economically and militarily. 

It is a blessing that Russia finally cuts all ties to Western commercial aircraft industry and is fully returning back to its very rich and highly regarded commercial aerospace school of design and manufacturing and being pressed into self-sustainability already shows not only an incredible resilience but a very bright future, not the darkest one. But this is beyond Mr. Ostrower's "expertise", and Sam's excellent tribute to AN-225 Mria should not eclipse the fact that this magnificent airplane is not and never was Ukrainian but a Soviet one. I am sure Russia will restore it and will make a museum out of it. But it is very instructive, how circumstances allowed to revive an excellent plane which was almost removed from wide service due to illusions of Russia-West "cooperation", but now came back, and it is an excellent machine which will complement the fleet of SSJ-100s (and New) and MC-21 in coming years.   

It is take-off time. BTW, beautiful plane.

UPDATE: I noticed there are a few fanboys (suddenly)  of the Luftwaffe's fairy tales (and "statistics"), and, of course, "Top Gun is a documentary" types, materializing on a discussion board who bought most of the BS published in the Western "historiography" about Eastern Front. So, in order to not respond to all those "air warfare" experts, here is Von Hardesty and Grinberg from their, now classic

But in order to be more substantive here are some excerpts:


I will omit here Russian archive sources which (those who want can easily find them in Russian) disclose a colossal scale of the air operations on the Eastern Front, as well as completely discredit German WW II statistics, correctly at that. But that is precisely the "statistics", much of it simply made up by Germans (e.g. verification of kills), which many of Nazi sympathizers love to use, obviously due to their military illiteracy. I am not talking about other revisionist sources which still cannot resign themselves to the fact that Axis was demolished by those Rooskies and it was the main point of WW II. So, in conclusion from Glantz and House seminal work When Titans Clashed:

Pay attention to date--mid-1944. So, my advice for those "experts"--before issuing your opinions, especially based on German "sources", learn the goddamn subject and give a simple cognizance to the fact that for 75 years combined West was rewriting the history of WW II and succeeded at that. Why it is so, read my first book--it explains in detail why. Read my lips: cream of the cream, best of the best, as well as a bulk of Luftwaffe's assets have been wiped out on the Eastern Front by mid-1944. For all air warfare "experts" the answer could be easily found in 1950-1953 in Korea and actions of the 64th Air Corps under the command of three times Hero of the Soviet Union Ivan Kozhedub. This is not statistics USAF likes to talk about. I repeat, in other words: learn the subject. Those who it is addressed to know who they are.

Larry On WW II...

Excellent and extremely important point--we are living out the last days of the world whose crucible was World War Two.  

I would be willing to lay down a heavy bet in Las Vegas that 95% of Americans have no idea what role Russia played in defeating the Germans. The truth is this–without Russia crushing the Germans on the Eastern front, Europe and the UK would be speaking German, or required to learn it in school. One of the reasons, not the only one, is how the most popular documentary series’ tell the story of the Great War. The narratives focus primarily on what the United States did with some credit given to the Brits for having a stiff upper lip and Churchill. The Russians generally are presented as bit players who somehow survived the slaughter at Stalingrad. The vast majority of Americans have no idea that Russia lost more soldiers in the Battle of Stalingrad than the United States lost in the entire war in both the European, North African and Pacific theaters. Ponder that for a minute.

Read the whole thing at Larry's blog.  Public should be educated on real events which gave birth to the world which is ending only now and public opinion is important in shaping what is coming.

Andrei Raevsky (The Saker) Sent A Message...

Andrei, as you all know, took a much needed break, a vacation, to rest and clear his mind, but he sends messages once in a while. This one is today and it is a good one. He gives some bullet points and in one of them he writes:

It is now also undeniable that what began as a special military operation (SMO) has now turned into a open and full-scale war between the consolidated West (aka the Anglo-Zionist Empire) and Russia: the Empire has now “hit” Russia with everything it had short of a direct military attack.  The (originally 200’000+ strong) Ukrainian military, arguably the strongest NATO military force (which is otherwise mostly composed of small and thoroughly woked-out “parade militaries”!), especially with the full support of the West (intelligence, weapons, money, political, etc. etc. etc.) is being “demilitarized” and “denazified” by a vastly superior Russian military force (but not one bigger in size: Russia has used only a fraction of her full military power).  The outcome here is not in doubt.

Read the whole thing at The Saker's blog. It is a good write up, good summary. 

I Respect Douglas MacGregor, But...

... here is where I disagree with him dramatically.  

Not only I disagree with him, but many people in comments also disagree. The assertion that Russia's SPRN (missile attack early warning system) is somehow "nowhere near" the American one is dead wrong. I know where this assertion originated, professor Postol stated this a couple of years ago. And it is a complete malarkey. 

It is exactly the other way around, not to speak of the fact that the US was lagging in advanced early warning radar systems behind not just Russia, but Soviet Union already in 1970s and 1980s. The proof is in the pudding. American nominally "strategic" system GMD (I will omit here a dubious effectiveness of it) is "run" by the BMEWS and its "derivatives" detection and targeting contour, aka Solid State Phased Array Radar, including its latest AN/FPS-132 Upgraded Early Warning Radar, plus some launch detecting space based assets (satellites). Here is one of those, spread by the US across the world from UK to Qatar. 

The only claim that the US could use up to mid decade of 2000s was in allegedly "processing" power, but that is not the case anymore. And while most radar have the range of 3000 miles, roughly 5000 kilometers, here is Russia's modern SPRN. 

Here is Russia's older but still well designed Don phased array 360 degrees radar and some intro to Russia's ABM system

Here are some fresh (2021) explanations about venerable Don. 

Russia has modernized its unique Don-2N radar station located in the Moscow region, Yuri Anoshko, general director of the RTI Systems (Radio Technical and Information Systems) told RIA Novosti. “Now it is being tested. As a result of these works, the functionality has changed,” he said at the Army-2021 forum. He said that both quantitative and qualitative characteristics have changed but did not get into the specifics. The Don-2N station is part of the missile attack warning system and provides information to the anti-missile defense (ABM) of Moscow. The construction of the radar began in 1978, and in 1989 it was put into service. The antennas are installed in a concrete truncated pyramid, the height of an 11-storey building and with a base width of almost 150 meters. This is the only example of the radar system. The Don-2N radar is capable of detecting small-size ballistic missile warheads at long ranges, determining their trajectories, classify warheads and respond with heavy and light decoys, dipole reflectors, and active jamming.

But, of course, since 2010s Russia deploys an astounding variety of "BMEWS" radar such as Voronezh and here is 2018 "coverage":

With a very respectable overlaps and 100% (360 degrees) coverage of the threatening directions. Of course, Voronezh radar is just one of many other types which provide both early warning and targeting. And here is Russian TV network Rossiya 1 gives a comparison to, and you have guessed it, US latest AN/FPS-132.
You don't need to know Russian to see that Voronezh beats the best the US ever produced in "BMEWS" technology hands down. See especially the comparison with the error in targeting (developing target's coordinates). Voronezh--11 meters, AN/FPS-132--well, 120 meters. You know, the order of the magnitude less accurate, not to mention the fact of its inferior range. Of course, I am not even talking about a variety of radars Russia deploys for both ballistic and hypersonic targets such as Container radar which is full blown OTH (Over-the-horizon) system which sees everything on the ground and in the air at the range of 3000 kilometers. The United States literally looks like a backwater compared to those capabilities, not to mention the fact that, of course, the US has nothing (even considering its GBI) comparable to A-235 Nudol, not to speak of full anti-hypersonic defense capability which the US simply doesn't have and who knows when, or if, it will develop it.

This charade about Russia's ABM system in the US media is becoming really nauseating, especially against the background of S-500 beginning to be fully combat deployed and its radar is fully networked with both Voronezh and Don systems, as well as any other early warning radar system capable to allow S-500 radar to monitor the air and space to the depth of 3000 kilometers. With A-235 Nudol having its mobile version developed, and with S-550 getting ready to deploy--these are capabilities the US simply doesn't have. All listed above Russian systems are designed not only to intercept ICBMs but are fully capable of defeating hypersonic maneuverable blocks. I like this condescending tone in this article:

The unveiling by the Russian President Vladimir Putin of the new S-550 air defense system was a surprise because nobody to date knew the existence of this new anti-aircraft defense missile system. According information released by Russian military sources, the S-550 could be based on the S-500 Prometheus that was recently tested by the Russian armed forces. The missile system has been designed as an anti-missile and anti-space defense system. The S-550 will be able to intercept ballistic missiles at greater distance and altitude than missiles S-400 and S-500. It could counter the American THAAD and Aegis missile defense systems with SM-3Block llB missiles. At this time, there is no information about the characteristics and capabilities of the S-550. The S-550 could be fitted with new engine and using new fuel and can be equipped with an advanced computer systems able to analyze the trajectories of enemy missiles.

Obviously, comparing THAAD to S-500 with its 600 kilometer range and full low-orbit anti-satellite capability is a an exercise in arrogance because it is akin to comparing a VW Beetle to a 18-wheeler  truck. With S-550 (alleged) range in excess of 1,000 kilometers and who knows what other capabilities and all of those systems fully integrated into the netcentric ABM and AD defense capability--the US has NOTHING comparable to that. But in the end, with first RS-28 Sarmat ICBMs arriving to full combat duty by the end of this year and first Avangard regiment (soon, full division of RVSN) being already in full combat readiness near Orenburg, the US ABM system simply ceases to matter in case, God forbids, serious war. 

So, this silly talk of comparing Russia and US  early warning systems and what they provide should stop because those desperate attempts to grasp the last straw of the myth of the US military "superiority" is a waste of time and, in the end, doesn't serve well the reputation, in this case, of a very solid and important American military thinker such as very respected by me Colonel Douglas MacGregor. He is a good man and serious professional, but I am on record, and am ready to repeat it again: the United States lost the arms race to Russia, especially in matters of truly high-end systems in the foundation of a nuclear deterrents and early warning. Note: I didn't even address Russia's space based assets.