As Larch already provided in other thread some summary on the new Russian Maritime (Морская) Doctrine--it is not just Naval, it is broader--it is geopolitical. Some already called it a challenge to the US Navy. While you can see English summary of new Doctrine in Larch's post here, it has to be stated clearly that Russian Navy was always a challenger to the US Navy based on a simple principle, with the exception of utterly catastrophic 1990s, that it was a Sea Denial force designed specifically to remove naval threats from Russia's shores and this task remains the core of Russian Navy's mission. Five years ago I wrote for the US Naval Institute:
Well, the coherence finally was provided today in new Doctrine. It is based on two fundamental pillars which, naturally, have been overlooked in the West:
1. Revelations of the real size and scope of Russian economy, which, as it turned out (surprise-surprise), is huge and immensely influential globally;
2. Real Revolution of Military Affairs, which provided truly revolutionary weapon systems which changed the fate of classic carrier-centric navies. FYI, 3M22 Zircon starts it serial procurement to first line surface ships of Russian Navy this September.
I want to remind you, again, this:
This is the reality of a missile salvo at the range of P-800 Onyx, or of HALF the range of 3M22 Zircon against any CBG. In other worlds, the perspective Russian carriers will out-range any US CBG by missile weapons alone, not to speak of airwings.
The change of the tone of the new Doctrine is not surprising, however, the time of co-existence with declining and aggressive West is over--massive geopolitical realignment with severe military ramifications is here and it is enough to take a look at SMO. The events such as outbursts of the so called Norwegin "diplomat" in Murmansk hotel a few days ago, or Ann Coulter exhibiting a very good level of awareness and putting this uneducated moron Pierce Morgan into his place yesterday are just some private cases of a larger trend on reality hitting home and biting ass.
This is just an infinitesimally small portion of moods and thoughts of people who, unlike most Western journos, didn't lose their brains. This IS the new brave world and priorities change, as it should be. Even earlier, 9 years ago, I wrote for USNI Proceedings.
Read it attentively, in 2013 when I was writing this, I gave the "cut out" time for 2020. Meaning Russia's economy recovering and restructuring and a new generation of ships and weapon systems getting ready by that time. Indeed, in 2022 the decision to turn Russian Navy into a truly Blue Water global navy has been made and the doctrinal fog has been dissipated.
Per this attack on the HQ of the Black Sea Fleet, as was totally expected, it was a local job with some small drone. It has nothing to do with Air Defense but with classic terrorist-diversionary activity of local element being either SBU assets or simply fanatical Russophobes--there are many of such people in Russia. Plus, NATO "advisers" are only good for training specifically terrorists but this is the field of responsibility for FSB and MVD. The only effect was 6 slightly wounded personnel and cancellation of celebration of Navy Day in Sevastopol.
Those shitstorm corvettes evidently ARE fully capable of carrying a container Kalibr family missiles, so Russians may get further in their version of LCS it seems. Those in the know say the ships are really good. So, this is your primer for Sunday.
That it is always pleasant to feel oneself (me, that is) vindicated when for years I am on record that Western GDP measure is a fake economy and absolutely DOES NOT reflect both size and complexity of national economies. In fact, GDP was invented by US so called "economists" for ideological reasons in order to perpetuate a myth of American economy as the largest and most super-pooper in the wolrd. But now...
Same as US Military-Industrial Complex, GDP "complex" is primarily a ponzi scheme for blowing bubbles and "reputation" of something that "grows" only fictional money at the Wall Street, period. Same as failed Javelins, Stingers, HIMARS, M-777 what have you, US economic "statistics", unless it is counted in normal tangible things is complete smoke and mirrors.
In related news. Per why Europe is different from the US and why they always hated Russians. Norwegian diplomat launched a Russophobic tirade in Murmansk, not about the "dirty" room in hotel, which hotel immediately said will clean and set, but because she hates Russians.
Western elites always hated Russians. As does a significant majority of European population, unlike it is in the US where everyday attitude towards Russians is absolutely normal, and that is why new Iron Curtain is needed. Here is this Norwegian "diplomat"
As you may expect, in the US media and State Department, where meaning of class does not exist, a "proper" language describing Blinken's communications with Lavrov was used. You know, Tony "demanded", he "warned", he "threatened" etc. A typical attitude of a New York low-rung thug trying to talk to higher-ups to show his "toughness". Reality, however, is such that Tony Blinken is scared shitless and there are reasons for that. Russian Foreign Ministry, however, released the summary in a typical Russian pro-forma and proper decorum manner.
And so on. Lavrov, however, noted that Blinken had to wait "only 24 hours" (wink, wink) and, after all, it was State Department which was bombarding Russian FM with requests to talk to them. While the issue of exchange of imprisoned citizens was, indeed, discussed, in reality, the whole thing was about the US desperately trying to gauge Moscow's mood against the background of events in Ukraine, which are developing pretty badly for Washington's SOBs in Kiev and, certainly, not in accordance to plans by Blinken, Sullivan, Nuland and other Washington "strategists" who wouldn't be able to plan properly the visit to grocery store, let alone fighting Russia in Ukraine. That is the reason I always smile when some Russian "analysts" calls Vicki Nuland an "experienced diplomat". It is difficult to explain to people that being a four wheel drive uncultured bitch who learned some basics of diplomatic decorum is not enough to be a real diplomat. Let alone great diplomat.
As for the potential prisoner swap between the countries, Mr Lavrov
strongly advised a return to professional dialogue in the context of
“quiet diplomacy” without any dubious media leaks.
We all know that media leaks will happen anyway because the US "diplomacy" is totally corrupt as is US media, but the message is clear: you want to talk to Russia now tone down your BS and follow the rules which has been set up in the international diplomacy before the United States even existed as a country. Russia will talk to the US, because it is still huge and powerful country--noblesse oblige--as per Europe. Well, they always hated Russia and Russians, they always will no matter who comes to power--the break is existential.
It needs no additional elaboration--Sergei Lavrov's schedule is extremely busy, obviously, because Russia is so "isolated", that it will be problematic for him to find time to talk to some low-class schlimazel who is to diplomacy as I am to Chinese choreography. So, using good ol' Russian saying--в очередь, сукины дети, в очередь (Get in line, sons of bitches, get in line). Lavrov undeniably read Bulgakov, that goes without saying. In the same time, I can only imagine what an emotional satisfaction Maria had when stating this:
Zakharova said on Thursday that the Russian foreign minister currently “has a busy schedule with international contacts,” including a Shanghai Cooperation Organization ministerial summit and some bilateral meetings.
Meanwhile Russia's "isolation" is so complete, and Russia is so "insignificant" economically and technologically, that even fanatical Russophobic BSers from Daily Beast had to admit:
Nah, don't worry, Tony Ho Tran (yes, that's the name of the author of the piece), who needs this insignificant "gas station masquerading as a country"? Come on, I am sure Russia's withdrawal from ISS will be unnoticed. This doesn't prevent this whole piece being filled with all kinds of BS, starting from "discussion" of Russia's upcoming space station ROSS, to asking an "expert" Wendy Whitman Cobb to comment on Russia's space program. Here is Wendy's CV and... drum roll..she has a Ph.D in political "science", meaning she has no education at all.
That may explain (partially) why the US is nearing the bottom. With "experts" like these, who needs the enemies? The United States institutionalized illiteracy and ignorance and called it "education".
Good point about Kiev's NATO "general staff". The guys, who don't know what real warfare is, unless it is blowing up defenseless people. You cannot fvcking get a decent credit card without good credit history, you cannot get loan to buy house without credit history. When was the last time anyone looked at the US "credit" military history since WW II? What "credit" score is that?
Russians do not really care, but considering the mental state of Biden and who runs State Department, I wouldn't put past them for such measure being approved. The same rag, the New York Times, citing same American "statistics" and "intel"--a euphemism for BS--also states that:
In related news, the United States also won in Afghanistan and is about to colonize Jupiter. Moscow nonchalantly called this a BS but Peskov made one mistake in doing so, namely:
“This is not a statement by the US administration, this is a newspaper report,” he said. “These
days, even the most reputable newspapers do not shun spreading various
fakes. Unfortunately, such practices have become increasingly common.
This is the way we should treat it.”
implying that NYT is somehow related to "most reputable newspapers". Calling this tabloid "reputable" is akin to stating that, well, US economy is in great shape. While Biden Admin squabbles about the method of how to react to the recession while not calling it such, the reality, of course, is this:
Always keep in mind, we are talking here about American "statistics", which also is very good at reporting on the financial, speculation that is, markets, but not that great at understanding real economy. But then again, Western economic "science", supported by a new brand of American "statistics" still thinks that the US is the largest economy in the world. Hence 75,000 "casualties" of Russia in Ukraine, hence no recession in the US, hence all these fake economic indices one can "interpret" anyway one wants.
In the world, where the truth is not defined and is the matter of the interpretations--hence the aversion to precises sciences--it ALL what we face today is not surprising. And here is where I want to convey this:
Listen attentively for the first minute of MacGregor describing the situation with Mattis' appointment by Trump. Douglas MacGregor knows this situation from the inside and when explaining reasons for Mattis' appointment, he encapsulates the way the whole system operates and it DOES NOT operate on substance. It is all about appearances, in this particular case Trump "being enamored by Mattis' image". Needless to say that same Mattis, as any contemporary US general, has a non-existent record of military accomplishments other than self-promotion, PR and advancing own career within the Beltway. This applies across the board of American contemporary governance, or whatever passes for it anyway, and gives us a very good glimpse into purely PR and image driven state machine, which is desperate to cover up this massive clusterfuck they created out of the United States in the last 20 years.
Well, watch it to the very end, LOL. True? Yes. Cruel? Absolutely, but that is the point. And if this Russian trolling is largely funny. This trolling, from the former President of Russia may create additional panic in Kiev. Dmitry Medvedev in his TG-channel demonstrated two pictures.
His commentary reads: in the damaged by psychotropics brain of Ukraine's President the next picture of a bright future of his country appeared (picture 1). Western analysts think, that reality will be what is in picture 2. I think Medvedev has a point. After all, he is deputy secretary of Russia's Security Council. I think he knows a thing or two.
In related news: PolitWera, Larry and me had a good discussion: it is both in Russian and English and you will have no difficulty understanding 100% of its content.
So, enjoy, if you will. At least Larry speaks proper English)).
Which is: Europe will be sorry that it didn't understand Hungarian. It is a remarkable piece, plus, Hungary's Foreign Minister just visited Moscow, for gas talks, with Russia immediately responding that Moscow will provide all Hungary's energy necessities starting from the increased volumes of gas Hungary asked for recently. But...
It is clear that gas issue was just one of the topics discussed in Moscow. Plus, of course, all those pro-forma calls for cease-fire in Ukraine. What was discussed behind closed doors remains, for now, a matter of speculations but we know that is was discussed.
Translation:Gerhard Schröder is in Moscow.According to SPIEGEL information, the talks are about gas deliveries through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.He traveled to Russia via Baku.
Well, not so fast. Even considering Schroeder and Putin's long and friendly relations, the issue is more than just the ability to sustain Germany's economy, which, mind you, decided to kill it completely on its own. Russia didn't elect globalist elites in Germany, Germany did, and the time of excuses is over--once you made your bed, you must sleep in it. There is, of course, a possible twist to this NS1 "issue", which is, indeed, to a large degree technical--one must do maintenance of turbines--but there is a Nord Stream 2. Remember? The one which was shut down by cowards in Berlin under US pressure?
Germany surely can atone for her behavior by finding a spine, since NS2 is already filled with gas and has, surprise, surprise, Russian-made turbines which do not require going outside Russian jurisdiction and can be easily maintained. Get it? NS 1, however, delenda est. Well, for now, anyway, until remnants of Ukraine exist. Which brings us to this ever important issue of "strategery" and promised "offensive" by VSU. Let us go to RUSSIAN definition of OFFENSIVE which sounds from good ol' Great Soviet Encyclopedia (taken from Military one) as such:
Translation:the main type of military operations carried out with the aim of defeating the enemy and capturing important lines or areas.The enemy is destroyed by artillery fire, air strikes and other means of destruction, and attacks by tank and motorized rifle troops.Usually, a multi fold superiority in forces and means over the enemy is created in the direction of the main attack.Before the Offensive, fire preparation of the attack is carried out, and during the Offensive, fire support and fire escort of the advancing troops ..
Simple, isn't it? I can only quote my friend Colonel Trukhan in his assessment of Pentagon's "planning": "they are not going to out-think us". I agree with this and the Pentagon strategy from the get go was based on a completely false narratives and ignorance of Russia and her military thought. The idea from the inception was: by means of constant feed of Ukrainian cannon fodder and with supplies of Western technology, to ИЗМОТАТЬ--TO WEAR DOWN--Russian Army and while prepositioning of NATO forces at the Western borders of Russia. Boy, those generals in Pentagon, obviously, still live with their Al Bundy's "four touch-downs" in high school football moment of having more than half-a-year of prepositioning with impunity superior forces against third rate Arab military. They never, obviously, studied Russian operations, which by far surpass anything US Army ever saw, in WW II. Otherwise they would get a hint that Russians WILL always maintain strategic reserves, not just military, which WILL always allow the swing of any operation--be it offensive of counter-offensive to defeat any combination of forces.
So, now that Pentagon saw itself how real wars are fought and it dawned on it that 90% of Russian forces are held in reserve, those "planners", known for their military "art" from "glorious" Afghanistan "victory", begin to scratch their heads trying to remember that operations (and wars) are planned:
1. Using combat effectiveness when calculating a required force size (наряд сил) for specific objectives. And that is based on great ISR and ability to calculate REAL correlation of forces. This task was successfully FUBARed, traditionally I may add, by all those generals and spooks, who are still reliving their fifteen minutes of fame after beating a three-year old kid in the sand-box in 1991.
2. OFFENSIVE consists of STRIKES. Russian definition of STRIKE is this:
Translation:Strike (military) Strike (military), direct impact on the enemy by means of destruction and troops with the aim of destroying him and achieving a strategic, operational or tactical result. There are strike troops (naval forces), missile, aviation (bomb, bomb assault), artillery, torpedo, and in the case of the use of nuclear weapons nuclear (rocket-nuclear). The time, the order of applying Strikes in a battle or operation, and the use of their results are agreed upon between all forces performing a common task. When performing a combat mission, troops (naval forces) can strike in several directions. One of them, which is of decisive importance for defeating the enemy and reaching the area of the final goal of the operation (battle), is the direction of the main Strike. In the direction of the main Strike, a decisive superiority in forces and means is created over the enemy, ensuring his defeat. A strike group of troops (naval forces) is created to execute the main Strike... In the course of a battle and an operation, the directions of the main Strike and auxiliary Strikes may change. Depending on the nature of the enemy's actions and the timing of the execution of Strikes it can be retaliatory, counter, or preemptive. According to the operational plan and method of implementing strike troops are dissecting, crushing, concentric (applied in converging directions); to fulfill partial (limited) operational-tactical goals, demonstrative, false, distracting.
These are ABCs any junior officer fresh from any military academy knows and which are universally understood and that is why there could be NO "offensive" on part of VSU around Nilkolaev or elsewhere because even when one considers every reserve Pentagon desperately tries to assemble for VSU, including pouring what it can in terms of weapons, advisers and training another 10,000 of Ukie cannon fodder in Poland, the only thing they may hope for is STRIKE by VSU with very limited tactical-operational objectives for, at present time, merely a PR effect designed to cover up Pentagon's sheer incompetence in a face of real armed forces, and in desperate attempt to bite Russians somehow in a barely hidden rage. I know, this is the feeling of a guy who looks at the girl who is way out of his league.
Of course, the other funny thing is that you cannot concentrate forces without being detected and, of course, VSU, even with all Western support, cannot achieve ANY strategic objectives on the front with the length of more than 2,000 kilometers and is reduced to mere limited strikes. But Pentagon's woes do not stop here, apart from shock from the very limited Russian force taking part in SMO, a true revelation for them is a stunning really degree of effectiveness of Russian Air Defense. It is stunning. Even when one considers the fact of, inevitable in the conflict of such intensity, "leakers". We will know the percentage of "leakers" (enemy missiles which do reach targets past Air Defense) after the conclusion of SMO but it is already clear--it is very low. I will go out on a limb here and will "guess" that we are looking at the effectiveness of Russian Air Defense against ALL types of targets: Tochka U, HIMARS, other MLRS in the vicinity of 80-85% at least. Probably, closer to 90%. In aircraft, probably around 95%.
For NATO forces which are being assembled in Europe it means only one thing: levels of attrition of their strike weapons and combat aviation which dash any hope of achieving any meaningful objectives. It also means levels of attrition of the ground forces which no NATO country, with the exception of Germany, has any experience with. So, I guess back to drawing board Pentagon, right? Don't hold your breath--professional jealousy is a strong motivator which is destructive more often than it is constructive. And we observe this destruction of the US Armed Forces in real time. It is not just a "wokeness", however baneful, which kills US military--it is Patton syndrome, when mediocre general who never encountered a serious Wehrmacht force at its peak demonstrated what Atkinson in his foreword to Patton's memoirs described as: "the creeping arrogance, the hubris, which would cost the American Army so dearly in Vietnam."
The US continues to suffer from this syndrome now across the board, being mired in its exceptionalist delusion, but it is warfare where this rot manifested itself so profoundly and so dramatically. For the force which convinced itself that it is "the greatest fighting force in history", while losing all of its wars, this trial by tactical, operational, strategic and technological realities could be a final blow before final collapse of its fake edifice.
You can bet your ass on Chinese taking part in those games. There is so much to incorporate in combat training protocols. Right, we all know, Russia is out of troops and ammo, that is what Pentagon tells us, wink, wink;)
I need to offer some elaborations on the issue which many who also post on my discussion boards do not understand. A few people like to constantly negatively react to Andrei Raevsky's writing. This is those people's right, and I completely am fine with constructive (I underscore it--not some propaganda BS spewing) criticism of my writing as well, as with correcting my mistakes, which I make sometimes. We all do. As any people we have our biases and even delusions. I, certainly, have mine, but so does The Saker. E.g. I and him we will never settle on the account of Solzhenitsyn who for majority of Russians is a traitor, falsifier of history, and open Vlasovite--a euphemism for Nazi collaborator--not to mention the fact that he is a mediocre writer. But this does not prevent me from recognizing Andrei Raevsky as one of the best analytical voices in Anglosphere when it comes to geopolitical analysis and you can often see in his writing the use of professional methods of developing a hypothesis. It is a rare skill.
This is not to mention the fact of his whole site being an extraordinary resource for people who seek truth and Andrei's yesterday's long (justifiably) and well written piece is a good indication of his excellent and very rare craft. Do I always agree with him? Absolutely not, there are some issues which I have disagreement with, but that is absolutely normal and is merely a small detail in a much larger and much more important work he does. So, for The Saker's critics, when criticizing, concentrate on his points in substance, meaning providing a constructive criticism, which addresses the problem, not his, or, for that matter, my biases. Present the case, not the just Boolean opinions of "right-wrong", "yes-no", but at least some argumentation to the contrary. That is a healthy and judicial approach to any discussions and upholding a generally good intellectual level which exists in my blog. I am sure Andrei Raevsky and his team will deal with Saker's blog discussions on their own. This is the issue I needed to address after seeing some reactions on Saker's excellent write-up yesterday. I hope this my advice will be heeded. In the end, recall that many of you found me and my little blog to a large degree thanks to Andrei Raevsky, for which I am very grateful to him.
I repeat, I do feel for Germans, but let me disclose one secret--one of my acquaintances, a man of extraordinary background and a very notable figure, who is German, had to bitterly admit, during one of our many conversations, that until Germany collapse economically and population as a whole will feel the brunt of this collapse, no political changes are possible. But Germany does need this change desperately because at issue is, actually, a survival of Germans as people. Yes, this is how serious this all is.
But Russia DOES NOT anymore bear responsibility for Germany because in the last decade Germany did everything to not only alienate Russia, but support a regime and powers which wish Russia and Russians disappearance as people and culture. Germany "refashioned" itself back to the times of Drang nach Osten, and even worse iteration of it--genocidal views of Nazis. Russians, arguably, are the best people in the world when it comes down to recognizing an existential threat to themselves. Germany now is a part of this threat:
Gepards are obsolete weapon systems which will have no impact on the outcome, but the fact that Germany supports genocidal anti-Russian Kiev regime says it all. For Russians Germany is THE ENEMY now and will be treated as such. This, however, in no way reflects on many Germans who immigrate to Russia and are met with open arms.
Read the whole thing--it is long and that is precisely why it makes it so good, because Andrei covers many key issues apart from what now is apparently becoming an imploding narrative by the combined West. Enjoy, I did.
...weekend. Not only I am a huge fan but I am a subscriber to Andre Antunes' channel which demonstrates his musical genius. It is also not accidental that Andre, being an outstanding multi-instrumentalist, loves to "close caption" musically a lot of what is happening in the American so called "Christian" churches, which long ago lost any connection to what is proper and are today known as either conduits of radically anti-Christian "prosperity gospel", or concentrations of Christian Zionism and many promote altogether utterly bizarre practices such as "revivalism", including driving poor people into trans and uttering a sheer psychobabble, aka "speaking in tongues". Not only it has very little to do with solemnity and a true beauty of traditional Christian ceremonies, especially held in the confines of immensely beautiful cathedrals, but it is utterly demeaning to poor people who are reduced to a crowd of zombies completely possessed by a BS spewed from the altar which is supposed to be some sort of "divine" revelation. If driving people into frenzy is the answer to spiritual needs, than there is something seriously wrong with such "churches".
In reality it is a horrifying picture harking back to medieval pagan practices. So, Andre decided to give this exhibition of mass psychosis a proper musical accompaniment and, boy, did he create something special.
Not only he created something special musically, but he provided the ONLY way to view this bacchanalia, which in some quarters passes for Christianity. Enjoy this as both a social statement and a musical piece which many already state is the best Andre ever produced. This psycho-bitch doesn't even understand that her ilk long ago turned their churches INTO casinos, not the other way around as she "preaches", and all of it in the name of Jesus Christ.
Andre, did many special things. Especially with Pastor Kenneth Copeland, a known abuser of human desperation and last hopes by means of sucking money from the followers of his "prosperity gospel" so called church. Like this:
But the last Reggae thing is his best ever which encapsulated without a word from Andre, only through his music, a complete cultural rot which afflicted America... in the name of Jesus Christ. Here are some proper translations of those "tongues")))
I have to say, the spiritual message of saving 15% on GEICO insurance touched me profoundly... Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
In fact, by analogy with RUSI's rather grossly delayed (by many years) report The Return of Industrial Warfare, it is about freaking time one compiled a similar report but titled The Return of Real Economy. Ah, wait, I already did, wink, wink. In real life all those stocks' "values", "capitalization" indices, or GDP fake numbers mean jack shit. Only the ability to produce and properly distribute tangible products ranging from energy, to food, to machines, to essential services matter in order to sustain societies and allow for development and social cohesion. The combined West suddenly, however late, begins to learn about those very simple and self-evident things.
Per Gonzalo Lira's yesterday hypothesis that Zelensky's day may be numbered.
Gonzalo is generally correct--assassinating Zelensky is one of the scenarios which was considered from the very start and the longer the SMO goes, the higher is the probability of such scenario being acted upon by the US. This, at this stage, however, makes no difference whatsoever for Russia because judging by the latest statements from the very political top of Russia, especially today's statement by Lavrov in Egypt:
Translation:CAIRO, July 24 - RIA Novosti.Russia will definitely help Ukrainians get rid of the anti-people and anti-historical regime, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at a meeting with permanent representatives of the member countries of the League of Arab States (LAS). "We pity the Ukrainian people, who deserve much better. We pity Ukrainian history, which is collapsing before our eyes, and we feel sorry for those who succumbed to the state propaganda of the Kyiv regime, and those who support it," he said.
Cannot get any clearer than that and it means only one thing--Russia is ready to take most of Ukraine on her balance and remake her, with the exception of areas which are historically Russian and are or will be incorporated back to Russia, into normal, docile and neutral state, fully dependent on Russia economically and in defense terms. My personal opinion is that the Western Ukraine will be given to Poland, Hungary and Romania, after proper arrangements. Russia's economic and military weight allow to accomplish this for sure. Washington and London, however, miscalculated yet again because circumstances changed dramatically since March of 2022. As Putin said: "You ain't seen nothing yet". And Gonzalo is absolutely spot on--Washington now is desperate to extricate itself from the Ukrainian catastrophe before the whole thing collapses and even spin-doctors will not be able to hide the global scale of the US military-political humiliation, which will make Afghanistan look like a child's play. And it is coming, it is almost here.
One has to admit, though, that once the art form begins to be used as a prompt, that immediately points out to a validity of such an art form. Rock-music, certainly, reached this status. Pepe Escobar loves to defer to rock music genre when writing about geopolitics. So, Larry Johnson goes back to the roots of glam metal.
Thanks to Larch who pointed my nose to the article by Lt.Colonel John Dolan at the Task and Purpose site. The title of article leaves no secret what is it all about: The Army is getting leaders ready for a war unlike any the US has ever seen. The service is moving away from the past and training for future operations against China and Russia. There, Nolan makes some assertions which need to be elaborated upon. Nolan opens with this:
There is absolutely no doubt that Pentagon (and CIA) have been looking at Russia's Wars very attentively. It is true for both Syrian Campaign and, of course, events in Ukraine since 2014 and, especially, now with SMO. Nolan's article is not a very tacit admission of an utter failure of the Pentagon's fighting doctrine and of the return, as is perceived in the US, of the massive scale combined arms warfare. Of course, in reality it never went away and Russians never abandoned this view of war, even despite the reign, primarily in the information environment, of the concepts such as Revolution in Military Affairs, Counter-insurgency and other similar concepts which were the extension of the overall American view on the warfare which none other than a fanatical Russophobe Richard Pipes (which makes it even more valuable under circumstances) noted in 1977:
This quote from Pipes' otherwise loony and, naturally, incompetent piece Why the Soviet Union Thinks It Could Fight and Win a Nuclear War, should have been used by Nolan as a preamble to his piece, because it covers immediately the foundation on which US warfare was built and it answers immediately the question WHY the United States Army Couldn't Fight and Win a Massive Scale Combined Arms War in Eastern Europe. Nolan goes to a great length trying to frame a discussion by reviewing the operational environment and manuals which the United States Army tries to adapt to the realities of the possible war, titled in Pentagonese LSCO (Large Scale Combat Operations) with Russia or China. It is all fine and dandy, and, in fact, necessary. Nolan adds here a personal touch:
As a platoon leader in Iraq, I credit two Apache attack helicopters with
saving my life, and I knew I could always rely on air support being
close by and highly responsive. In an LSCO environment, the days of
helicopters loitering over small units, unmanned aircraft systems (UAS)
soaking targets uncontested for 48 hours, and firing mortars and
artillery without regard for their proximity to command posts, assembly
areas, and logistics nodes are gone. Similarly, our expectation of
complete air supremacy and not worrying about more than a small UAS
dropping a 40mm grenade on top of us is unrealistic. This revised
operational environment that MCCC is building into its scenarios is
intended to teach students to account for a threat with accurate and
even overmatched fires, air defense assets at nearly every echelon,
aircraft capable of striking friendly units, near-constant observation
by enemy UAS, and the capabilities to broadly disrupt our communications
systems. We are trying to impart to our students that the resources
they will receive are 1) more finite in terms of time allocation and
quantity, 2) susceptible to many forms of enemy contact, and 3) must be
employed thoughtfully to prevent easy enemy predation and enable
preservation for future friendly use.
Well, that is a good start and it is the duty of professionals to view things in proper perspective and framework but the reason the United States Army couldn't win LSCO in Eastern Europe against Russia is already answered by... Pipes and it is very simple:
1. The United States as a country is incapable to face the number of casualties, especially in KIAs, which will amount, roughly, to 1,000-1,500 KIAS per day alone. This is not a theorem, it is an axiom. In other words, what Nolan admits as shortcomings are, even when one has the ability to adapt somewhat tactically and operationally, what Nolan terms as to be "employed thoughtfully", to the realities of European LSCO, one still is reduced to this proverbial:
And here is the thing which SMO demonstrated perfectly and which the US Army NEVER experienced in its history.
A) Classic truism of the 3rd Generation Wars (per Soviet Military thinkers) of stand off and SMART munitions and increasing accuracy of the targeting which is known since 1980s: If I see you, I can kill you. Obviously a bunch (in thousands) of the annihilated NATO "volunteers" in Ukraine cannot testify to this tactical and operational truism, but some, who had enough IQ to save their asses by running, will--it is true. Russia, as the US, has a superb and constantly improving ISR complex and, unlike any other potential enemy of the US, can deny the US the same, including removing or disabling most of the US space based recon assets both physically and by a "soft kill".
C) Maneuver: here comes this back to TOE, its "Equipment" part, issue: maneuver with WHAT? Putting aside a few hundred French and German Main Battle Tanks, M1 Abrams with its monstrous weight and dimensions is not a very effective platform in the environment where it will have to face hundreds of T-90M Proryv (all Netcentric and capable to even provide targeting to Russian Air Force assets) and now serially produced T-14 Armatas, while classic US battlefield strength in Close Air Support most likely will be either mitigated or removed altogether. Because, and you may have guessed it, and I wrote about it many times--the United States simply has no concept of advanced Troops Air Defense, unless one wants to impress Russians with this:
Which sounds like a bad joke with Russian ground forces deploying organic air defense systems which include this:
And many other things which proved their very high effectiveness on the battlefield in serious conflicts both in Syria and in SMO. And these are just some of them. Not least in the ECM field, that even US specialists in the matter, surprisingly, are going public explaining why Russia "doesn't actively jam GPS".
Competition with China and Russia is here to stay for the foreseeable
future, and this requires an institutional shift towards better
understanding and training for LSCO. As I write this, Russia continues its war in Ukraine,
and the United States continues to push more troops and arms to Eastern
Europe to bolster our Allies. While transitioning our Army to a
fighting force more capable of prevailing in an LSCO contest will not
happen overnight, MCoE and MCCC play a vital role in preparing future
generations of Army leaders to fight and win the next war. Our key is to
remain agile and dynamic in our curriculum and instructional approach,
with our foot on the gas – willing to adjust and adapt for the future
Buthere is the issue--in order to have this "E" in TOE you need a national military-industrial capability which was lost by the United States long time ago and I was probably one of the first, may be even first, people who by 2017 started to point out to the United States losing Arms Race to Russia. Today the improvement in capabilities for the United States Army rests not just with, however important, combat training or new curriculum and instructional approach, knowing an academic catastrophe unfolding, as an example, in the USMA in West Point. It rests with the ability of the United States to produce effective and competitive weapons for the modern war, but I don't see this happening any time soon because the issue is systemic and it straddles the whole spectrum of political, economic and military activities in the United States today. The prognosis is not good.
But Nolan is not the only one who begins to ask some hard questions. As some at West Point asked two years ago:
The answer is very simple, there is no "If", in case of, God forbids, the United States deciding to commit suicide by Russia, the US Army will have to deal not just with own technological inferiority but fighting people who for millennium fought off the best both Orient and combined West could throw at them, while the US Army trying to "defeat" Russia will be the force which never fought in defense of own country directly and, apart from this disparity in TOE, it is this moral factor which the US Army lacks and will continue to lack if it decides to go the way of Teutonic Knights, Mongol-Tatars, Polish invaders, Napoleon or Hitler. These experiences cannot be bought by money or internalized on the level of nation and its armed forces, but this is the factor which matters above all. In the end, the United States doesn't have this:
It is simply beyond American cultural and military experiences. And that, in the end, is what wins wars.