Larry Makes Some Excellent Points.

At Judge's show.  

Excellent Discussion.
 

Strategic Inevitability.

Sasha Rogers wrote three days ago an excellent--typical Rogers with his laser guided sarcasm and acerbic tone--piece which is titled "The Meat Storm" (in Russian). In it he posted Rusvesna video on how what's left of VSU and 404 simply have no options in purely military terms but to conduct much promised and spun by morons from Western media "offensive" with disastrous results. 

Here is how one Russian unit deals with four Ukie APCs (looks like M-113) and this tiny tactical action projected against the realities of a huge, 1000+ kilometers long, front demonstrates perfectly how VSU is going to be dealt with in case of their "offensive", now promised by Kiev regime to be along... several axes. Yeah, sure. 

The reason I call strategic inevitability is because neither Pentagon nor Kiev "planners" know what to do at this stage, and, considering the fact that most wars by the US are driven by PR, they need to undertake something--call it anyway you want: counter-offensive, offensive, massive attack or simply attack but it has to be repeated time after time--not on  a single occasion VSU took any ground or settlement as a direct  result of their combat activity. Each time these were Russian forces who have been withdrawn from operationally and strategically insignificant positions to save personnel. Enough to recall VSU "operations" around Kherson when they couldn't take anything around Kherson, not a single village, until the decision was made to save civilians and personnel and abandon Kherson. Only after Russian withdrawal VSU "captured" abandoned villages and the city. 

Naturally, illiterate media and military "professionals" touted it as a huge success, even calling it stunning, because in the West the "victory" is defined only through TV picture and spin. What, of course, those "experts" do not understand is that the "stretching" of VSU forces is ongoing the picture, such as demonstrated in the video, repeats itself every single day with VSU and their "allies" being slaughtered in some catastrophic numbers. But that is strategic inevitability now not only for remnants of Kiev regime forces but NATO as a whole which exposed its military illiteracy in the most dramatic way. In doing so they "ensured" the picture which you can see in the video being replicated everywhere in 404. 

Here is what Svechin wrote and was noted about Strategy in the preamble to his seminal work. 

I criticize many of my colleagues in the study of problems of military history and tsarist Russia, in that they usually strove, immediately following a factual statement of events, to develop their deductions and conclusions, which often had rather limited scope and depth. A truly scientific approach consists of, once the facts have been stated, shifting to a reflection of them. "The difference between the terms, conclusion [vyvod], on the one hand, and contemplation [razmyshlenie], on the other, reflects different understandings of the relationships between theory and real life." 

The problem with modern Western military as a whole is that it fails both in theory and real life with equally disastrous results and that is a strategic inevitability framed by illiterate military-political class of the combined West. They refused to do the homework (Svechin also writes about homework) and failed the test not just in 404, but globally. 

Meanwhile...

 ... the world continues to move on. 

Москва. 29 марта. INTERFAX.RU - Россия и Индия рассматривают возможность создания трансарктической контейнерной линии и строительства перерабатывающих мощностей рядом с Северным морским путем (СМП), заявил министр РФ по развитию Дальнего Востока и Арктики Алексей Чекунков в ходе рабочего визита в Индию. Как сообщает Минвостокразвития, главной темой состоявшейся во вторник встречи российской делегации с министром портов, судоходства и водных путей Индии Сарбанандой Соновалом стало использование СМП для надежной и безопасной транспортировки грузов. "Обсуждалось создание альтернативного пути доставки грузов из Индии в Европу - не по южному или западному маршрутам, а по восточному, через СМП, с задействованием как российских, так и индийских портовых мощностей. Особо отмечено, что стоимость доставки контейнера из Владивостока до Индии на треть ниже, чем стоимость доставки контейнера из Москвы", - приводятся в сообщении слова Чекункова.

Translation: Moscow. March 29. INTERFAX.RU - Russia and India are considering the possibility of creating a trans-Arctic container line and building processing facilities near the Northern Sea Route (NSR), Russian Minister for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic Alexei Chekunkov said during a working visit to India. According to the Ministry for the Development of the Far East, the main topic of the meeting of the Russian delegation on Tuesday with the Minister of Ports, Shipping and Waterways of India Sarbananda Sonoval was the use of the NSR for reliable and safe transportation of goods. "They discussed the creation of an alternative route for the delivery of goods from India to Europe - not along the southern or western routes, but along the eastern one, through the NSR, using both Russian and Indian port facilities. It was especially noted that the cost of delivering a container from Vladivostok to India is one third lower than the cost of shipping a container from Moscow," Chekunkov said in the message.

Not to be outdone, Saudi Arabia adopted the memorandum on the partnership with the members of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as reported by Saudi media and by TASS (in Russian). Also, barely noticed Russia finished the final preparation for the serial production of TU-214 and... launched it. This year three new TU-214 will be transferred to airlines and by 2025 the manufacturing will ramp up to 20 a year. Before 2025 eleven more of reborn and modernized TU-214 will be transferred to customers (in Russian). Mind you, Russia continues to manufacture SSJ-New and MC-21. 

Finally, about the failed test of the USAF very own hypersonic ARRW.

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Air Force’s March 13 test of a hypersonic weapon was “not a success,” the service secretary told lawmakers Tuesday.Frank Kendall indicated the Lockheed Martin-made AGM-183A Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon program may be in jeopardy. The service, he said, is “more committed to HACM [the Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile, the service’s other major hypersonic weapon program] at this point in time than we are to ARRW.” The ARRW effort “has struggled a little bit in its testing program,” Kendall told the House Appropriations Committee’s defense panel during a hearing on the fiscal 2024 budget request. He said an ultimate decision on whether to continue with the program could come as part of the FY25 budget process next year following a study of the failed March test and possibly two more test launches. Hypersonic weapons travel at speeds topping Mach 5 and are highly maneuverable, making them difficult to track and shoot down. China and Russia have invested considerable resources in developing these weapons for their militaries, and several U.S. lawmakers have expressed concern that the country is not doing enough to field its own hypersonic capabilities.

Again, read my lips: the US eventually will be able to come up with some type of hypersonic weapon, most likely of a glider variety but neither China nor US will have anything even remotely equal to 3M22 Zircon. Moreover, it seems that US legislators and journos need a constant reminder of a huge difference between quasi ballistic systems and full power systems such as serially produced and deployed to Russian Navy's surface fleet Zircon. The only hypersonic thing which allegedly could get IOC is US Army's Dark Eagle but it is clear that there are "issues" with this system too. Well, doesn't look like Russia sweats too much about it. Plus S-300V4 and S-500 are specifically designed for dealing with such kind of threats and those are in serial production. 

Last, but not least--two can play "strategic ambiguity" game. Russia's Foreign Ministry has stated that Russia will stop prior informing of the American side about launches of her strategic weapon systems. Well, let them guess and start calling Moscow each time. In conclusion about strategy of SMO:

There is no possible political or diplomatic solution to the ongoing conflict with Ukraine at the moment, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has insisted. He added that Moscow regrets other avenues for resolution are not open. Speaking to Russian journalists on Wednesday, Peskov reiterated Moscow’s resolve to reach its goals, which were outlined by President Vladimir Putin at the start of the military operation over a year ago. “We have repeatedly said that Russia’s goals … can be achieved in various ways. These are politico-diplomatic or – if politico-diplomatic are currently impossible, and in the case of Ukraine, they are impossible, to our regret – through military means, that is, through the special military operation,” Peskov stated.

The annihilation of the remnants of VSU and its "allies" from NATO continues and will continue till utter demilitarization of NATO. This is your primer for Wednesday.

This Is An Old School SNL...

 ... when SNL was hilarious and Jim with his goat and "Joe Pesci show" was a huge part of it. Well, George Karlin is not with us anymore, but Jim does a damn good job himself ...

It is as hilarious as it is sad, because it is true. BTW, in real life Jim is an upstanding guy and a good father. 

About Composites.

Ah, look at that. Funny, I spoke about it in my yesterday's video:

МОСКВА, 28 марта. /ТАСС/. "Аэрокомпозит" изготовил и поставил на испытания в ЦАГИ прототип крыла российско-китайского широкофюзеляжного дальнемагистрального самолета CR929. Об этом в ходе форума "Композиты без границ" заявил гендиректор "Аэрокомпозита", первый замгендиректора корпорации "Иркут" Анатолий Гайданский. "Мы в этом году закончили и сейчас поставили на испытание в ЦАГИ прототип крыла композитного для самолета CR-929. Это вы знаете наш совместный с нашими китайскими партнерами проект, который мы сейчас готовим к испытаниям и до середины наверное этого года проведем испытания", - сказал он. Как уточнили в пресс-службе корпорации "Иркут", куда входит АО "Аэрокомпозит", крыло перспективного широкофюзеляжного дальнемагистрального самолета будет представлено на авиасалоне МАКС-2023. Самолет несколько лет разрабатывался ОАК совместно с китайской CRAIC. Планировалось, что российская сторона возьмет на себя инженерные работы, а в Китае будет налажена окончательная сборка воздушных судов. Самолет планировалось вывести на рынок в 2025-2027 годах. Он должен был быть представлен в трех версиях. В базовой комплектации авиалайнер должен был перевозить 280 пассажиров.

Translation: MOSCOW, March 28. /TASS/. "Aerocomposite" has manufactured and tested at TsAGI a prototype wing of the Russian-Chinese wide-body long-haul aircraft CR929. Anatoly Gaidansky, General Director of Aerocomposite, First Deputy General Director of the Irkut Corporation, stated this during the Composites Without Borders forum. "We have finished this year and have now put a prototype of a composite wing for the CR-929 aircraft for testing at TsAGI. You know this is our joint project with our Chinese partners, which we are now preparing for testing and will probably be tested by the middle of this year," he said. According to the press service of the Irkut Corporation, which includes JSC Aerocomposite, the wing of a promising wide-body long-range aircraft will be presented at the MAKS-2023 air show. The aircraft was developed for several years by the UAC together with the Chinese CRAIC. It was planned that the Russian side would take over the engineering work, and the final assembly of aircraft would be arranged in China. The aircraft was supposed to be put on the market in 2025-2027. It was to be presented in three versions. In the basic configuration, the airliner was supposed to carry 280 passengers.

I will repeat it again: Russia does not need China for CR 929 because Russia has the state-of-the-art IL-96 400, PD-35 in development and all composite industry she needs. Flying from Kaliningrad to Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky could be done in one stop by TU-214 or MC-21 somewhere in Novosibirsk or Krasnoyarsk, or, eventually, with MC-21 Extended Range non-stop. 

Yes, they are flying the thing in experimental mode now. 

Per situation with children and their psycho-bitch murderer. I can not easily take this, but I 100% agree with Larry:

This has the potential to be a watershed moment and mark the start of the political pendulum shifting from demanding that all sane people genuflect at the altar of transgender fantasy towards the traditional belief grounded in biology — i.e., transgenderism is a phantasm.

I am on record--most of the US media and "intellectual" class are war criminals and criminals against humanity. There are no normal people working for the US MSM--none.

LOL))

What can I say? LOL...

Russia’s Economy Is Starting to Come Undone

The author is some Bulgarian sore loser with all the boxes required for ignoramus checked. 

Georgi Kantchev is an award-winning freelance journalist, Member of the Chartered Institute of Journalists, based in Sofia, Bulgaria. He has been published in The Economist, Deutsche Welle and Kurier Vienna, among others. Georgi has international work experience across a range of media (print, online, radio) in the UK, Austria, Bulgaria, Belarus, Germany and Switzerland. He has covered the fields of politics, economics, business, technology and the media. Working in English, German and Bulgarian, he has proven multimedia expertise. Georgi holds a MA with Distinction in Media Management from the University of Westminster in London and BA Journalism Summa cum laude from the University of Vienna. 

That's the WSJ for ya and the "level" of their coping. I would suggest them to visit Kensington Ave or Skid Row and ask "locals" for their expertise in geopolitics. 

In related news, as was expected, Russian Air Defense started to intercept yet another American wunderwaffe:

Russian troops have shot down a long-range Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) in Ukraine, the Ministry of Defense said on Tuesday. It is the first time Moscow has reported downing such a weapon. In a statement, the ministry said that Russian air defenses “had intercepted 18 HIMARS [High Mobility Artillery Rocket System] missiles and one GLSDB guided missile.” While Russian forces have on numerous occasions thwarted attacks by US-supplied HIMARS, it is the first time the ministry has reported the destruction of a GLSDB smart bomb. The munitions were promised to Ukraine by US President Joe Biden in early February as part of a $2.17 billion military assistance package. In total, since the start of the conflict, the US has committed more than $32.5 billion in security aid to Ukraine.

Read my lips--I repeat it--for Tor-M2 and S1 Pantsir GJSDB and similar munitions are STANDARD, typical that is, targets. Tor M2 just recently shot down a few Excalibur rounds. Yes, Russian AD is that good, I dare to say it is the best in the world and by a gigantic margin. That is why Washington today stated that 404 doesn't need US fighter planes at this time. Sure. Just some points for this Tuesday.

In Order For Me...

... to not repeat myself while elaborating on Putin's and Patrushev's interviews, I decided to give a very short, radically insufficient, overview: 

Their desperation is palpable.

Russia’s crude oil exports by sea have held above the 3 million barrels per day (bpd) mark in the past six weeks, after the EU ban on fuel imports from Russia took effect and after Moscow said it would lower its production by 500,000 bpd, tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg shows. In the most recent week to March 24, Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports fell by 123,000 bpd but were still above 3 million bpd, at 3.11 million bpd, per the data cited by Bloomberg’s Julian Lee. While weekly shipments can be very volatile, tanker tracking in the six-week period to March 24 also showed a similar small decline in Russian shipments. This suggests that Russian crude oil exports have held resilient this year, and the voluntary production cut hasn’t shown yet in Russia’s crude exports to the global market. Most Russian exports are headed to China, India, or “unknown destinations” in Asia, which, history shows, usually means that the cargoes end up in one of the two biggest Asian importers of crude.

But Tolstoy left us with those insights which are true and universally applicable: 

Yes, it was like a dream in which a man fancies that a ruffian is coming to attack him, and raises his arm to strike that ruffian a terrible blow which he knows should annihilate him, but then feels that his arm drops powerless and limp like a rag, and the horror of unavoidable destruction seizes him in his helplessness. 

Don't expect the crowd inside the beltway ever reading this novel, let alone understanding and learning from it. 

And To Conclude This Weekend...

... with this news.  If anyone wants to know where the West is headed--enjoy. 

Any chance this wonderful female TSA agent will have her pay rate increased? She absolutely deserves this raise for being a bulwark against insanity.

You Don't Even Need To Know Russian...

... to understand what SMO woke up in Russian people. Look at these two twin sisters from Makeevka, 25 years old. Children, but here they are running their truck with radio comm equipment.  

They can drive the tank too. To say that this wakes up a genetic memory of overwhelming majority of Russians about the Great Patriotic War is to say nothing. That is exactly what SMO woke up. The images are overwhelming and are beyond life and intellectual experiences of those (majority) people in the West who "planned" their Ukrainian debacle before 2014 and, then, in 2022. I am on record--they don't understand what they've got themselves into and why the West has been lost.

This And That.

 First about this:

Russian tactical nuclear weapons might arrive in Belarus as early as this summer, Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed on Saturday. Moscow is completing the construction of a specialized storage facility for such arms, amid repeated calls by Minsk to deploy them on its soil, he added. The site in Belarus will be ready by July 1, Putin told Russia 24 TV. The president also said that Moscow does not plan to hand over control of any tactical nuclear weapons to Minsk and that it would only deploy its own arms to Belarus. He did not specify when exactly the weapons would be transported to the new site.

There is absolutely nothing sensational about it and this message is primarily for Poland, just in case. Good ol' Iskander's range is 500 kilometers (it doesn't mean that longer range Iskanders will not appear soon) and when placed slightly West of Minsk it covers exactly half of Poland and also "improves" behavior of Baltic states. Moscow and Minsk are parties to union state of Russia and Belarus and it is only natural to do militarily whatever allied countries decide to do within their borders. 

Now about real economy, Putin is not bluffing:

"Поджигатели планируют направить на Украину 400 с лишним танков. Все то же самое, что и по боеприпасам. За это время мы произведем новых, и модернизируются имеющиеся тоже, свыше 1600, а общее количество танков РФ будет превышать в три раза количество танков ВСУ, даже более, чем в три раза", - добавил Путин.

Translation: "The arsonists plan to send more than 400 tanks to Ukraine. The same goes for ammunition. During this time, we will produce new ones, and the existing ones will also be modernized, over 1,600, and the total number of tanks of the Russian Federation will exceed three times the number of tanks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, even more than three times,” Putin added.

I know, some people in Pentagon scratch their heads but, as I mentioned in my video too, the actual number of produced and modernized tanks in Russia this year may reach 3,000, with majority of them the tanks of new types, primarily of T-90M Proryv type. For T-14 Armata, nobody knows the actual number, what is known that there are now more than a hundred of them and at least couple of battalions (around 60 tanks, give and take) are training for the deployment to the front line. I am on record for years about "revelation mode". Meanwhile the fossil of Henry Kissinger also had a revelation recently when concluded that the new Cold War is much more dangerous than the old one. No shit, genius--in related news: water is wet, sky is blue and Western establishment is ignorant. 

I speak about it here:

And while at it, you might as well pay attention to this decent video about British carriers, granted that some facts there are somewhat debatable, but in general it is a worthy one. Per "third" and "fourth" rules of thumb, they are tied to a business known in Russia as "Coefficient of Operational Tension" (КОН--Коэффициэнт Оперативного Напряжения) and it is the science onto itself and staffs of formations deal with that. 

But there is no doubt that HMS Prince of Wales so far is an embarrassment, even when allowed for the issues of being a new design. 

In related news, Ukies begin to evacuate Avdeevka, whose "position" looked like this yesterday:

There were some convulsions by VSU on Kupyansk axis, naturally, they ended bad for VSU and when people ask me (this was the question from one of the viewers on YT) what war Russia is getting ready for producing these monstrous quantities of war materiel from shells and missiles to tanks, my answer is very simple--Si Vis Pacem, Para Bellum. Russia is preparing for facing down any threat emanating from the combined West with such military advantage that even psychopaths need to think twice. But then again, the narrative did change, noticeably. Somebody in Pentagon must know that Russian reserves have not been deployed yet. They will when and if needed. This is your primer for Sunday. 

 

P.S. Ah, yes. Comrade Xi still didn't call Mr. Ze as Western media assured us was his intention. What could have possibly go wrong, wink, wink? 

Open Thread.

 Go at it.

I Don't Know What's The Deal.

But there is very little doubt that the US illegitimately occupies part of Syria's territory and conducts a favorite business of training terrorists. 

BEIRUT (AP) — A strike Thursday by a suspected Iranian-made drone killed a U.S. contractor and wounded six other Americans in northeast Syria, and U.S. forces retaliated with airstrikes on sites in Syria used by groups affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, the Pentagon said. Activists said the U.S. bombing killed at least four people. While it’s not the first time the U.S. and Iran have traded strikes in Syria, the attack and the U.S. response threaten to upend recent efforts to deescalate tensions across the wider Middle East, whose rival powers have made steps toward détente in recent days after years of turmoil. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in a statement that the American intelligence community had determined the drone was of Iranian origin, but offered no other immediate evidence to support the claim. The drone hit a coalition base in the northeast Syrian city of Hasaka. The wounded included five American service members and a U.S. contractor.

I don't know who sent the "message", but this event is a great testament to a military fallacy of the American bases around the world, because not only they will continue to lose the "power projection" value but will continue to increase their value as fat and mostly indefensible targets against modern battlefield delivery systems. Nobody in their own mind would believe that US air defense systems such as Patriot PAC3 can handle a serious salvo of even relatively unsophisticated subsonic means of delivery. 

Meanwhile butt-hurt BSer Sebastien Roblin "reports" based on propaganda doctored "data" from 404 that Russia... finally ran out of tanks and reactivated T-54/55 ones. 

Russia is dusting off the cobwebs from military deep storage facilities in the country’s Far East, for the first time railing un-upgraded Cold War T-54B tanks westward, possibly bound for Ukraine. Now, a video of the T-54s transported by rail has surfaced. 

What uneducated hack Roblin doesn't know, because with degree in "conflict resolution" and "social and global studies" you can not know anything of value, is that Russia was using older T-54/55 since War in Chechnya not for tank operations but as a very helpful  artillery units for... drum roll... block posts, thus increasing their combat stability and as a good caliber response in case of attacks on numerous block posts. Generally Western pseudo-academic fields in "strategic studies", "conflict resolution" or "foreign relations" produce unemployable office plankton with minimal skills even for 7/11 janitor, but when you are also getting paid by Ukies, what kind of "reporting" one provides becomes abundantly clear. In general, SMO exposed all, without exception, US MSM and popular "alternative" media as uneducated hacks and unprofessional losers, including a large portion of the US "military experts" with hefty C.V.s in "fighting" in Iraq and Afghanistan, but with minimal expertise in modern wars and combined arms operations of scale. 

But that brings us to issue of military education in the US and the new crop of America's present and future military leaders. I wrote about it before and quoted Tim Bakken:

Academic standards are also nonexistent. I believe this trend started approximately ten years ago, and it has continued to get worse. West Point has stated standards for academic expectations and performance, but they are ignored. Cadets routinely fail multiple classes and they are not separated at the end-of-semester Academic Boards. Their professors recommend “Definitely Separate,” but those recommendations are totally disregarded. I recently taught a cadet who failed four classes in one semester (including mine), in addition to several she had failed in previous semesters, and she was retained at the Academy. As a result, professors have lost hope and faith in the entire Academic Board process. It has been made clear that cadets can fail a multitude of classes and they will not be separated. Instead, when they fail (and they do to a staggering extent), the Dean simply throws them back into the mix and expects the faculty to somehow drag them through the academic program until they manage to earn a passing grade. 

And this is one of very many testimonies of a collapse of professional military education in the US. 

In related news, I spoke today with Vera and famous Russian REAL war reporter Marat Khairullin--the rough estimate of just wounded in and around Bakhmut is roughly 20,000. As Marat says, who spends most of his days at the front line and communicates with serious tactical and operational level officers, they all are unanimous--combat medicine in VSU ceased to exist several months ago, and just inside Bakhmut today there are more than 2,000 wounded who still cannot get even stabilization procedures. That means they will be dead in a day or two. Reality of the 404 "offensive" is absolutely not what is being portrayed by Western media. This is not from some shitty TG channels, this is from people of repute and first hand operational (forget tactical) knowledge of the combat zone. Yes, Marat is a constant presence,  from the front lines, on Russian major TV networks. So, here is your SitRep of sorts for Friday.

Friday Is Coming...

 ... We know things which have been lost. But what is going to be taken to the future...

Or maybe this... 

Can you believe this seat of pedophilia and perversion once were making these masterpieces.  

But then there is this genius Canadian guy...

You remember this kid, right?

Simon is only good at plastic surgeries...  

So, enjoy... Friday is coming. 

P.S.  Before there was any Star Wars, Russians have been thinking about what they will take to the future in 1973. 

Enjoy...

Another American Icon Is Gone.

It is sad, but the new generations of cucks in the US is what kills anything good what was about the US. Another American icon is gone.

New York CNN  — General Motors announced Wednesday that it’s ending production of the latest generation of the Chevrolet Camaro, leaving the Ford Mustang as the last gasoline-powered American performance coupe. 

I owned Camaro after Porsche 928--I loved it. Not this one.

I used to own exactly like this one. Yes, it was red.

This was a beauty in every respect. Sad...

Great Talk.

 Judge and Larry. 

Some very good strategic talk.
 

Duh!

Wow, what a secret has been disclosed, not. 

Soldiers of Ukraine’s ‘Thor’ special operations group use satellite data provided by the CIA to choose targets when conducting drone strikes against Russian forces, the unit’s commander told the Times. The 27-man group, which is formally a police special operations unit, functions independently from the Ukrainian army and works in close collaboration with Ukraine’s military intelligence, the GUR, which provides them with ammunition and intel. According to the Times, the unit has complete license to select its missions, where they barrack and when they fight. The unit’s commander, whose name is said to also be Thor, claims he uses a special application on a tablet that is synced to a CIA satellite to select potential targets for their attacks. “We select targets in the program, and targets can be placed there both by the CIA satellite and by our own satellite, which our volunteers pay for. Information is collected from all kinds of sources there. We choose, then we arrive and conduct our own reconnaissance,” Thor told the outlet.

In related news--water is wet, fire is hot and the sky is blue. The US runs a tight routine here between completely discrediting itself as "the finest fighting force in history" which cannot fight a real war and a power who hides behind proxies. As I stated not for once, in real war with Russia the US satellite recon and navigation constellation would have been gone in about 72 hours. But then again, Washington knows the ultimate outcome, not for 404 which de facto doesn't exist as a real state anymore, but for itself. 

Medvedev, meanwhile, is on a roll:

Russia is rapidly boosting its military production capacity to meet the demands of the Ukraine campaign, Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chair of the country's national security council, has told journalists. “Our enemies thought that our industry would be overwhelmed,” the official, who also has previously served as Russian president and prime minister, said by videolink on Wednesday. “There were endless claims: munitions are running out, tanks are running out, missiles are running out.” Medvedev said he'd witnessed military factories working round the clock during his inspections. And new manufacturing capacities are being built, he added. “Sure, we didn’t think it would be necessary sometime ago. But it became a necessity,” he said of the expansion.

And here is the trick, Western "democracies" and FIRE "economies" cannot do that even if they will allocate (print, that is) needed sums of money. Recalling what Jeffrey Sachs once said about Russia:"We cut the patient open and learned that it has a different anatomy." I continue to write about this for years--Russian economy differs dramatically from those of the combined West. As Medvedev stated:

Where Russia lags behind, Medvedev acknowledged, is in designing and producing large strike drones. However the country has “several models that have already gone into series production.” “I am certain that [putting these to use] is a matter of several months,” he promised.

This is the point, at this stage Russian Military-Industrial Complex and economy in general are the only entities in the world capable to R&D, introduce and ramp up dramatically the mass production of the advanced weapon systems in a very short period of time. Guess what Main Organizational Mobilization Directorate of Russian General Staff does? Yes, it constantly plans and counts, counts, counts and, believe me, they know how to count. They also know when and how NATO nations lose any capacity to measure up to a modern war--and that holds the answer to the puzzle of Russia's strategy in SMO.

Larry's Excellent Elaboration...

 ...on possible Bakhmut Offensive by VSU. 

I want to remind you of a point I have made in previous pieces on the Bakhmut situation — this is not the only point of attack for the Russian side. The Russians are pressing forward on multiple fronts and forcing the Ukrainians to make some hard choices about where to deploy scant reinforcements and munitions. Unlike Ukraine, Russia has trained, experienced and well-equipped reserves near the front. The Russian responses will either confirm the claims of Western analysts, who insist the Russians are inept and poorly trained, or it will destroy that meme. A Russian defeat in Bakhmut will not alter Russia’s objectives in this war. It would lead to a shakeup in military command and a significant escalation in Russia’s use of force against Ukraine. It would buy Ukraine some time and re-energize the West’s commitment to expand support to Ukraine.

This is a must read since Larry gives some very good operational and even strategic reminders. 

Garland, Scott and Me.

Discussing things. 

I think it was a good discussion.
 

Ouch!

It is clear that we are beginning to live in the wake of Moscow's Summit, which may well be defined as historic. But get this:

НИЖНЕВАРТОВСК (ХМАО), 22 марта. /ТАСС/. Россия намерена создать свою, альтернативную систему поставок энергоресурсов, что будет выгодно почти всему населению в мире. Об этом сказал первый заместитель министра энергетики России Павел Сорокин в ходе пленарной дискуссии "Образ будущего: прогнозы и возможности ТЭК" шестого международного молодежного научно-практического форума "Нефтяная столица". "Мы как продавали, так и будем продавать [энергоресурсы] и оставаться надежными партнерами. Прожить - все проживут. Но это большой шанс для нас и 7 из 8 млрд людей на планете создать альтернативную систему [поставок энергоресурсов]", - сказал он. "Мы увидели, что очень сильно увеличились логистические маршруты. Та система транспортировки нефти, которая существовала последние 50-60 лет, была сломлена. Рыночная экономика всегда стремится к наиболее эффективному состоянию, минимизации логистических издержек, маршрутов", - добавил Сорокин. По его словам, Минэнерго считает временной ситуацию с высокой стоимостью доставки российской нефти на внешние рынки, стоимость фрахта будет меняться в сторону снижения.

Translation: NIZHNEVARTOVSK (KhMAO), March 22. /TASS/. Russia intends to create its own, alternative energy supply system, which will be beneficial to almost the entire population in the world. This was stated by First Deputy Minister of Energy of Russia Pavel Sorokin during the plenary discussion "Image of the Future: Forecasts and Opportunities for the Fuel and Energy Complex" of the 6th International Youth Scientific and Practical Forum "Oil Capital". "We both sold and will continue to sell [energy resources] and remain reliable partners. To live - everyone will live. But this is a great chance for us and 7 out of 8 billion people on the planet to create an alternative system [of energy supplies]," he said. "We have seen that logistics routes have increased greatly. The oil transportation system that has existed for the past 50-60 years has been broken. The market economy always strives for the most efficient state, minimizing logistics costs, routes," Sorokin added. According to him, the Ministry of Energy considers the situation with the high cost of delivering Russian oil to foreign markets to be temporary, the cost of freight will change downward.

In reality, however, this trend was only one of many trends on Russia's decoupling from the West, and now that the Power of Siberia-2 received a huge boost the FUD crowd from Honk-Kong's own South China Morning Post started to spin.

China, Russia gas-pipeline statements raise questions on Power of Siberia 2 progress

• Putin says agreement with China, Mongolia to build Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline is ‘practically’ finalised, as Russia looks to divert gas from Europe to Asia
• But analyst says such deals between Russia and China ‘complicate the ongoing China-US confrontations’ and raise geopolitical risks among major economies 

Let me explain who those "analysts" are--those are primarily boys and girls with degrees in economics from Western schools and who are desperate now observing not just decline, but ongoing collapse of the combined West and understanding that their (lack of) skills, education and careers become absolutely meaningless in the emerging world based on tangibles, REAL economic development and geopolitical trends which all those "analysts" cannot grasp, because they were taught, basically, a pseudo academic shit. It can be stated very clearly that most Western "geopolitical risks assessments" are worthless garbage detached form the reality. 

Now, where are we going from here? Simple, everything alternative from finances to energy. Remarkably, the more combined West protests and tries to sabotage it, the heavier the economic and geopolitical consequences for it are. A classic no win situation, zugzwang, Catch-22, or damned if you do, damned if you don't. This is what General Kellogg calls "ACME professionalism". With generals like this... I think many of those American generals learned how to pronounce words Strategy and Operations, but in reality they do not know what those words mean. I do not exaggerate. It is now about 7 out of 8 billion people who deserved and want a better and peaceful life.        

But It Can Continue...

 ... and it will, despite Clare Daly saying that it cannot. 

She needs to understand that all NATO top brass, all those three-four star generals, do not know what real war is. Yes, they are that incompetent. Secondly, most of them are compromised and are not so much military men as politicos protecting their careers, including by toeing "a party line" formulated by even more incompetent and even more corrupt and cowardly West's political top. As I am on record--the only thing they can do is PR. Now, some of them begin to feel that they fucked up royally and some may face down the road some serious legal, forget about moral, they long ago lost morals, issues. 

Here Larry explains a bit the issue. 

Those creeps never knew what they were getting themselves into. As I am on record--Petraeus, Keane or Kellog wouldn't be allowed to command a fucking regiment, forget about division, let alone army, in Russian Armed Forces--this is how delusional they are operationally and strategically. And whilst it is good that some voices of reason are present in European Parliament, it has to be clearly understood that those are lone ones. 

I have a good acquaintance, who also reads this blog, and he was a member of the board in one of the major, in fact legendary, European economic institution. When we spoke to each-other on many occasions last year, this acquaintance stated that Europe will have any chance of reforming itself only when it experiences a catastrophic social and economic collapse. Yes, those very average Europeans. This collapse is coming. But to demonstrate an appalling state of Western Civilization, here is the news:

A disagreement between Paris and Berlin over nuclear energy and combustion engine vehicle policies is casting a shadow over an upcoming EU summit on Ukraine, Politico reported on Monday, citing multiple sources. According to the outlet, the impasse between Germany and France is feared to disrupt a meeting of EU leaders in Brussels on Thursday, in which the officials are set to discuss economic competitiveness, as well as ammunition deliveries to Kiev. The latest row was initially ignited after Germany tried to mount a late blockade of the EU’s zero-emissions legislation, which includes a ban on the sale of polluting cars and vans by 2035. Berlin wants a clearly-worded exemption for e-fuels – a synthetic alternative to fossil fuels that is beneficial to the German automotive industry. However, Berlin’s demand has already been rejected twice before in the European Parliament, as member states refused to back a binding loophole for such fuels last year.

Europe--this is YOU. You chose them. And you are beginning to pay the price. Here, meanwhile, are true American and British heroes. 

It long ago became more than just geopolitical clash--it became indeed a proverbial fight of good against evil. 

"I only wished to say that ideas that have great results are always simple ones. My whole idea is that if vicious people are united and constitute a power, then honest folk must do the same. Now that’s simple enough."

Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace.  

A Picture Worth A Thousand Words.

Here is a photo from Syria, from Aleppo. Syrians doing their own version of Immortal Regiment carrying photos of Russian servicemen who died fighting for Syria's independence and clearing it from ISIS plague.  

This is everything one needs to know about new world Russia and China are building. In related news, the names (identities) of foreign "volunteers" in 404 who executed Russian POWs in September 2022 in the town of Petropavlovka have been revealed--primarily citizens of the US, Poland, Finland and South Africa. One of them is a porn "star". I guess they better start thinking about laying very low for the rest of their lives.

In Order To Not Misread Things.

This is regarding Chinese peace plan. Read attentively Putin's words: 

"Безусловно, мы не обошли вниманием и ситуацию вокруг Украины. Полагаем, что многие из положений выделенного Китаем мирного плана созвучны российским подходам и могут быть взяты за основу для мирного урегулирования, когда к нему будут готовы на западе и в Киеве. Однако пока такой готовности с их стороны мы не наблюдаем".

Translation: “Of course, we have not ignored the situation around Ukraine. We believe that many of the provisions of the peace plan outlined by China are consonant with Russian approaches and could be taken as the basis for a peaceful settlement when they are ready for it in the West and in Kiev. However, so far we are not seeing such readiness from their side."

Moreover, yesterday's statement from Russian Foreign Ministry reacting to some initiatives from the West leaves no doubt about the nature of "negotiations" (a euphemism for articles of capitulation) which may precede any "settlement". 

МОСКВА, 21 мар — РИА Новости. США, Великобритания, Франция и Германия не могут претендовать на роль нейтральных посредников в мирном процессе по Украине, поскольку они участвуют в конфликте с Россией, заявили РИА Новости в МИД. Так там прокомментировали предложение бывшего главы Мюнхенской конференции по безопасности Вольфганга Ишингера создать контактную группу по Украине, чтобы "запустить мирный процесс". Участвовать в ней, по его мнению, должны Вашингтон, Лондон, Париж и Берлин. "Официально нам об этой инициативе ничего не известно. <...> Тем не менее идея Ишингера вызывает закономерные вопросы. Прежде всего потому, что все упомянутые четыре страны сами являются участниками конфликта с Россией, который продолжается на территории Украины", — сказали в МИД, уточнив, что узнали о предложении из прессы. 

Translation: MOSCOW, March 21 - RIA Novosti. The United States, Great Britain, France and Germany cannot claim the role of neutral mediators in the peace process in Ukraine, since they are involved in a conflict with Russia, the Foreign Ministry told RIA Novosti. So they commented on the proposal of the former head of the Munich Security Conference, Wolfgang Ischinger, to create a contact group on Ukraine in order to "launch the peace process." In his opinion, Washington, London, Paris and Berlin should participate in it. "Officially, we do not know anything about this initiative. <...> Nevertheless, Ischinger's idea raises legitimate questions. First of all, because all the four countries mentioned are themselves participants in the conflict with Russia, which continues on the territory of Ukraine," the source said. Foreign Ministry, specifying that they learned about the proposal from the press.

 

So, the SMO continues until utter destruction of remaining VSU and their NATO "volunteers", and Russian Army continues to gain new territories. Moscow's position on any Ukrainian "settlement" is well articulated and reiterated by Kremlin on many occasions. Those are de facto articles of capitulation for the remnants of 404 and, by extension, of the West: demilitarization, non-block neutral status of Ukraine, acceptance of the territorial realities, removal of all sanctions from Russia etc. These are key points, there are many other ones, including implied, such as respect for Russophone population in the remnants of Ukraine, which by implication means autonomy and eventual declaration of independence for such oblasts as Nikolaev, Odessa and Kharkov. 

 

As much as Douglas Macgregor doesn't know the history of WW II (he could be surprised to learn that the kill ratio between Axis and the Red Army on the Eastern Front was 1.3 to 1 in favor of Axis), he is absolutely correct in pointing out that Ukraine already de facto ceased to exist as a viable state, and that it seems that the order "to disengage" was given in the combined West and the US is desperately looking for exit. Yes, the signs are already in place. As per review of the outcomes, many good ones, of very busy work of both sides in Moscow, I will try to make video tomorrow, but it is already clear that the break of Russia from the West has been accomplished, and Russia supported Chinese Yuan as the other intermediate reserve currency (Russian-Chinese payment are now 65% in Yuans and Rubles) before, I guess, new currency will be worked out. I know that Washington and Brussels are looking at the events in Moscow in sheer terror. This is your primer for Tuesday.

Same As With "Iranian" Drones.

To close this stupid issue of "Chinese weapons to Russia". When even these cretins cannot confirm it:

У Евросоюза нет доказательств того, что Китай поставляет оружие России, заявил глава дипломатии ЕС Жозеп Боррель на пресс-конференции по итогам заседания Совета ЕС в Брюсселе. Также, по словам Борреля, нет доказательств и того, что Китай планирует это делать, передает ТАСС. Ранее The Wall Street Journal писала, что Китай может  рассматривать возможность передать России беспилотники и артиллерийские системы для использования в зоне СВО. Напомним, Пекин заявлял, что Китай не является стороной конфликта на Украине и не поставляет никому оружие.

Translation: The European Union has no evidence that China is supplying weapons to Russia, EU diplomat Josep Borrell said at a press conference following the EU Council meeting in Brussels. Also, according to Borrell, there is no evidence that China plans to do this, TASS reports. Earlier, The Wall Street Journal wrote that China may consider transferring drones and artillery systems to Russia for use in the NWO zone. Recall that Beijing has stated that China is not a party to the conflict in Ukraine and does not supply weapons to anyone.

I repeat, again: every single US (or Western) MSM is a primitive propaganda outlet and tabloid. All of them, without exceptions. I hope we will stop asking these frivolous questions about Iran, China, Brazil, Zamunda, what have you trying "to supply" Russia with weapons.

China's Naval Problem.

I already mentioned it many times, including today in my latest video. 

Here is the illustration to China's naval (maritime) problem, and to how military professionals think. 

I deliberately chose the range of roughly 1,500 kilometers measured form Shanghai. As you can see yourself CBG-1, 2 and 3 stand for the US Navy's Carrier Battle Groups. Three of them deployed in shaded rectangles. Now comes the problem, it is purely operational and mathematical one. If one believes in accuracy of China's DF-21 ballistic anti-shipping missiles with their range declared as... 1,500 kilometers, it is their opinion and they are welcome to have it. But, if one considers this:

Which is, of course, good ol' carrier-borne F-18 Super-hornet and a missile known as AGM-158 JASSM, one should immediately get the pen and a piece of paper (or calculator) and should start counting. Each US Navy's Nimitz-class nuclear powered carrier (CVN) carries around, here is the data:

The 50 TACAIR air wing includes up to 82 aircraft. Typically this would be 12 F/A-18E/F Hornets, 36 F/A-18 Hornets, four E-2C Hawkeyes and four EA-6B Prowlers fixed-wing and helicopters, including four SH-60F and two HH-60H Seahawks. The carrier can also deploy S-3B Viking aircraft, but these were phased out and replaced with the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet. The S-3B Viking was finally decommissioned in January 2009.  

In other words, an average TACAIR has around 48 carriers of this said JASSM, whose range varies from 950 to 1,900 km (for XR version), which also is "extended" by the range of the carrier, which is a said F-18 in its different versions. Add here those roughly 600-700 kilometers and you get the picture: the air wing can launch a salvo of JASSMs BEYOND the range of the anti-CBG DF-21 missiles. Simple arithmetic: 950+700=1,650 km, or, in case of JASSM XR, 1,900 + 700 =2,600 km. But that is in case of the attack of the ground targets in the mainland China. JASSM, however, is also and even primarily so--anti-shipping missile. Yes, it is a typical American anti-shipping missile--subsonic and not particularly maneuverable. But... as you can count, JUST three US Navy CBGs you can immediately recognize that in their alpha-strikes, those three can have 48 x 3 = 144 strike aircraft simultaneously and each of those F-18s can carry... 4 JASSMs. Let's not be primitive and imagine that some of those F-18s will have pure air-defense configuration. So, let's say that we will have on average not 4 but 3 JASSM per F-18. Multiply: 144 x 3 = 432 JASSMs in the first salvo. 

Do you know what those are for in the first run? No, not Shanghai--those are for PLAN's surface fleet which will have to face this salvo. What do you think, will they successfully repeal it? Wanna try Salvo Model with coefficients which DO NOT favor Chinese surface fleet? Or, have you heard about USAF being trained with carrying same JASSMs (look up numbers of B-1Bs and B-2s). You may counter--but what about PLAN's carriers. Well... with 11-14 Virginia-class SSNs in the theater it is a very risky proposition for Chinese carriers to venture beyond First Island Chain.  So, that IS the naval (maritime) problem for China in case of even conventional attacks. Sure, the US will sustain losses here, but those shaded rectangles are still away from the A2/AD bubble. 

Now, Xi is in Moscow. Four and a half hour they talk with Putin God only knows what about. Tomorrow the "narrow format" meeting heavily dominated by Russian Military-Industrial Complex people and something tells me that this will be on the table:

This is sheer 1,000 kilometers dash at M=2.5 and then the launch of M=9 Kinzhal with the range of 2,000 kilometers. The targeting for the strike on CBGs is not such a big of a deal anymore. Chinese have their own thing, Russians have Liana operational. So, 1,000+2,000 = 3,000 kilometers and you cannot shoot down Kinzhal, unless it breaks down by itself, but the salvo of 6-8 Kinzhals. Boy, I do not envy those people on the carriers. You see how simple it is? China desperately needs to sort this issue out and I am anticipating first official statements tomorrow anxiously. It doesn't mean that hey will come up with the list--no, absolutely not, but we need to look for those subtle signs and words which will allow us to conclude that some huge steps have been undertaken by Putin and Xi. 

                          

                             Si Vis Pacem, Para Bellum