I Think Larry and Pepe ...

 ... have a point about Iran's nukes. It is likely (how likely, IDK) it exists. What is absolutely positive--it is Iran's delivery capability. If nukes exist Iran has a very good delivery capability against any target in the region (Israel, that's you) and parts of Europe. 

There has been a dramatic and noticeable shift in Donald Trump’s rhetoric and social media posts regarding Iran since Pepe and I received the report of Iran’s threat to do a demonstration detonation of a nuclear warhead if the US does not cease its attacks on Iran. Coincidence? I don’t think so. Iran is still willing to negotiate a peaceful end to the war with the US and Israel but is insisting that the US end its blockade, stop its attacks on Iranian vessels, and halt the Israeli attacks in Lebanon. In the latest news we received from the Pakistani source, Pakistani officials are expressing optimism that they will be able to broker a deal between the US and Iran that will culminate in a meeting between Donald Trump and Iran’s President, Masoud Pezeshkian, in Islamabad, Pakistan within the next 40 days. Here’s the raw intelligence:

As is correctly pointed out in graphics--Trump is now selling offramp. 

Meanwhile, Scott unleashes a fiery takedown of Europe at SPIEF and I entirely agree with Scott. 

In fact, I subscribe to every word. Europa Delenda Est! In the US--we will try to figure something out on our own. 

Kudos To James Clander For Pointing to Pepe's Excellent ...

 ... piece today at SCF. This is for those two-bit commenters who have the attention span of Joe Biden (or DJT). US was BEGGING Iran for negotiations since March 16th at least--three weeks! So, Pepe puts the record straight. 

The Epstein Syndicate begs for a break

We had arrived to a point where the death cult in West Asia was being crushed simultaneously by Iran and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon; no matter the avalanche of spin, their cries begging for help played a significant part into Trump’s pivoting to a ceasefire. The Epstein Syndicate as a whole begged for it. Nothing to do with geopolitics, but with operational hell: the Empire of Chaos has run out of military resources. The ultimate give away was when the USS Tripoli retreated – under fire – to the depths of the southern Indian Ocean, complete with its 2,500 Marines on board. That meant the US Navy out of the war theater – except for subs with Tomahawks, roughly half of which go off-target with staggering (non)precision.

And the problems are far from over. Financial hell looms, whatever is decided in Islamabad and beyond, with $10 trillion in Treasuries to rollover in 2026. And the petrodollar is fast on the way to the dustbin of History. Enter, once again, the demented death cult. No one should ever forget. The Epstein Syndicate is non-agreement capable. And the death cult doesn’t do ceasefires: it does at best loopholes that allow it to keep killing everyone in sight. The writing is already on the wall. If the death cult blows up the ceasefire – which is already the case – Iran and Hezbollah will counterpunch, massively, without attacking American assets. Still, it’s way too early to affirm that the Baboon of Barbaria lost his war under every possible metric: moral; legal; political; economic; strategic.

This is for those who still cannot wrap their brains around what strategic initiative is. Iran has it, not the US, nor this peep-squeak Israel. I have to disagree with Pepe on the last point though. US degeneration into the at best second-rate power has been happening since at least 2008. It accelerated in 2014 and now, as Pepe himself notes:

So Civilization survives – for now. A few facts too. Fact One: the US is not a superpower anymore. Fact Two: Iran is back as one of the world’s top powers. Fact Three: Most of the gutless Gulf petro-monarchies will end up kicking out US military bases for good. Fact Four: Qatar and Oman will work out a security arrangement with Iran.

Per role of China--China IS vulnerable and she will remain vulnerable--it is a hard cold fact of Chinese geography and economy. In this case it needs to be stated that Iranian 10 Points are indeed peremptory and Iran was not going to allow for any type of a ceasefire unless all conditions are met. Teheran can count military resources extremely well and they know pretty well how many stand-off weapons are remaining in the US arsenal, especially against the background of the US (lack of) air defense. And here is an analogy which is not only inescapable but warranted--SMO. Witkoff can go to Moscow "to negotiate" whatever he and his orange clown want, but SMO continues uninterrupted. 

Related. We should not forget also that Vladimir Putin stated this on June 19, 2025: 

"You know, we once offered our Iranian friends to work in the field of air defense systems. The partners did not show much interest then, and that's all. As for the agreement you mentioned, on the strategic partnership [between the Russian Federation and Iran], there are no articles related to the defense sector. This is the second point. And thirdly, our Iranian friends are not asking for this. Because there is practically nothing to discuss," Putin said.

Guess from three times whose AD systems Iran has chosen, from July 2025. 

Iran will soon receive from China a batch of HQ-9 long-range anti-aircraft missile systems (SAM) and Chinese-made surface-to-air missiles under an oil barter agreement concluded between the countries. As reported on July 8 by the Middle East Eye (MEE) portal, citing several diplomatic sources, Tehran needed urgent purchases of these weapons to accelerate the restoration of its air defense forces, which were seriously damaged as a result of the June Israeli raids. U.S. Arab allies are aware of Tehran's measures to "support and strengthen" its air defenses, and the White House has been briefed on Iran's progress on the issue, the MEE said. The HQ-9 is considered an upgraded analogue of the Russian S-300PMU1 air defense system, but using Chinese radars and electronics. The system uses a two-stage solid-propellant missile with a declared maximum range of 260 km and an altitude ceiling of 27 km. The estimated cost of one air defense regiment (27 launchers) is $1.5 billion.

"Considered" IS NOT actual combat performance. Pakistan's HQ-9s preformed dismally against Indian AF and its missiles, unlike S-400 with India buying five more batteries of S-400 based on combat performance and record. This is for those who want to look at actual combat data. Just saying. 

Does Iran feel lucky? 

A Very Good Piece From Pepe ...

 ... about this whole mess.

The whole drama, predictably, developed as Deceit in the Making. The war was ordered by the leader of a death cult in West Asia, a genocidal psycho who then took refuge in his “Wing of Zion” and fled to… Berlin. His American sidekick, neo-Caligula, a megalomaniacal Narcissus, co-ordered the war from Mar-a-Lago. 

Read it. Now for people who continue to propose idiotic schemes such as "Russia should have transferred to Iran ..." 3M22 Zircon, Kinzhal (with MiG-31 K, right?), S-500, Oreshnik et al. So, you are proposing Russia transferring to Iran systems so advanced that CIA, Mossad and MI6 would kill to even have a pick at them and in the country where fifth column is still active. Get a grip. This is not military technology fanboys' blog. I do actually have professional military background. 

While at it--this is the dawning on some Iranians who those diaspora are. 

Good for this (drop dead gorgeous BTW) girl that she understood. These are precisely the people who BSed morons in D.C. that Iranians will rejoice and embrace "democracy", same types who convinced CIA and others that "Putin's Regime" is about to fall. Their MO is always the same. 

Yes, It Is Not There Anymore.

I do share George's sentiment--I am a Western man, a European in civilizational sense. It is essentially my culture, because I am Russian and Russian culture intersects greatly with European culture, and I am not talking about arts only, I am talking about law and philosophy. 

But it is over. The United States provided Europe with additional 80-years long lease on life after the WW II which was strictly European idea. This lease is up. I spoke about some ideas of removing Italy from EU, singling her out as the birthplace (together with Greece) of the Western mind. 

Pepe wrote piece about Italy too. If the current, fragmented collective West would ever have a chance to be rescued from the Centaur of oblivion, that task must be carried out by the definitive, Western civilization-state: Pallas Athena Italia. 

Rome, Athens--cities which shaped human civilization for more than 2,000 years. But is there anything left to save? I don't know. I do feel for average English, Italian, French or German people, I do ... but it doesn't matter anymore because of the inexorable march of history. 

Nima, Pepe And Me ...

 ... live in 40 minutes. 

Pepe Nails the Description of the Mood ...

 ... in Russia, especially re: Kellogg, not to speak of this amateur Gorka guy. 

Pepe At Judge...

 ... 

 

Pepe Dives Into Some Details.

 At Danny's show. 

 

Pepe Wrote...

 ... a review of my latest book. It is, of course, flattering to me and my great thanks to Pepe. 

Andrei Martyanov has carved for himself a unique, haloed place when it comes to deep critical thinking of all matters of war and peace. In his previous books, in his blog Reminiscence of the Future and in countless podcasts, he has become the go-to source when it comes to the inner workings of the Special Military Operation (SMO) in Ukraine as well as The Big Picture of the proxy war between the U.S. and its collective West minions against Russia. Naturally every new book by this delightful human being with a biting sense of humor is something to cherish – and this one, America’s Final War, the fourth in a series, should be seen as the crowning achievement in his carefully detailed analysis of a real revolution in military affairs that has completely bypassed the “indispensable nation.”

Read the whole thing. What I will do, and I am eternally grateful to Pepe for this, I will print and frame Pepe's characteristic of me as a "delightful human being", and will hang it everywhere in the house for my wife to see it, constantly))). Thank you, Pepe. Hopefully, see you in Moscow next year, this time we go to a nice steak place.

My Two Good Friends Talk...

 ...

 

Pepe's New Book.

Guys, allow me to introduce Pepe Escobar's latest book:

You know it is going to be good. I didn't have the chance yet to read it (I will) but there are a very precious few who understand Eurasian dynamics better than Pepe. 

You can order it here and here directly from publisher. 

Pepe Did What Real Journalists Do...

 ... getting the story right! 

They have waited 10 long, suffering years to vote in this election. And vote they did, in massive numbers, certifying a landslide reelection for the political leader who brought them back to Mother Russia. VVP may now be widely referred to as Mr. 87%. In Donetsk, turnout was even higher: 88,17%. And no less than 95% voted for him.  

But here is what Pepe stresses the most:

This was of course a referendum. Donbass represents a microcosm of the solid internal cohesion of Russian citizens around the policies of Team Putin – while at the same time sharing a feeling experienced by the overwhelming majority of the Global South. VVP’s victory was a victory of the Global Majority.

It was a referendum. Read the whole thing at Sputnik...

Pepe In Donbas. Report.

 Wonderful writing, as usual. 

You are given a name by the War:/it’s a call sign, not nickname – much more./Lack of fancy cars here and iPads,/But you have APC and MANPADS./Social media long left behind,/Children’s drawings with “Z” stick to mind./’Likes” and “thumbs up” are valued as dust,/But the prayers from people you trust./Hold On, Soldier, my brother, my friend,/The hostility comes to an end./War’s unable to stop its decease,/Grief and suffering will turn into peace./Life returns to the placid format,/With your callsign, inscribed in your heart./ From the war, as a small souvenir:/Far away, but eternally near.

 

It’s a cold, rainy, damp morning in the deep Donbass countryside, at a secret location close to the Urozhaynoye direction; a nondescript country house, crucially under the fog, which prevents the work of enemy drones. Father Igor, a military priest, is blessing a group of local contract-signed volunteers to the Archangel Gabriel battalion, ready to go to the front lines of the US vs. Russia proxy war. The man in charge of the battalion is one of the top-ranking officers of Orthodox Christian units in the DPR.A small shrine is set up in the corner of a small, cramped room, decorated with icons. Candles are lit, and three soldiers hold the red flag with the icon of Jesus in the center. After prayers and a small homily, Father Igor blesses each soldier.

Read the whole thing following the link.

Pepe's Excellent Piece.

It is what we all have been talking (and warning) about for many years. Pepe writes about Emmanuel Todd's book La Défaite de L’Occident (“The Defeat of the West”). It is excellent review by Pepe. 

Now Todd, in what he has defined as his last book (“I closed the circle”) allows himself to go for broke and meticulously depict the defeat not only of the US but of the West as a whole – with his research focusing in and around the war in Ukraine. Considering the toxic NATOstan environment where Russophobia and cancel culture reign supreme, and every deviation is punishable, Todd has been very careful not to frame the current process as a Russian victory in Ukraine (although that’s implied in everything he describes, ranging from several indicators of social peace to the overall stability of the “Putin system”, which is “a product of the history of Russia, and not the work of one man”).

But it is this Todd's point Pepe reports which is almost funny:

1. At the start of the Special Military Operation (SMO) in February 2022, the combined GDP of Russia and Belarus was only 3.3% of the combined West (in this case the NATO sphere plus Japan and South Korea). Todd is amazed how these 3.3% capable of producing more weapons than the whole Western colossus not only are winning the war but reducing dominant notions of the “neoliberal political economy” (GDP rates) to shambles.

Little did Todd know, that West's economic statistics is fraud of which I wrote three books and continue to drive this point for many years--Russia is huge economically, especially where it matters the most--industries. But let's recall what Michael Hudson told about Western "economics" as taught in universities--it has no relation to reality. So, read Pepe's excellent review.

Pepe In The Main Cathedral...

... of Russian Armed Forces. I've been there--it is a powerful spiritual experience. So, here is Pepe.  

When Your Heart Breaks...

Pepe posted it. This girl is more mature and moral than any political science major from Harvard. You look in these eyes and the depth is incomprehensible for those majors... 

Pepe's Excellent Take...

 ... on Russia-Israel connection. 

Is it possible that the philo-Semitic Russian President Vladimir Putin is slowly but surely re-evaluating his geopolitical assessment of Israel? To call this the key riddle in Moscow's corridors of power is actually an understatement. There are no outward signs of such a seismic shift – at least when it comes to the officially “neutral” Russian position on the intractable Israel-Palestine drama. Except for one stunning statement last Friday at the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Summit in Bishkek, when Putin blasted Israel’s “cruel methods” employed to blockade Gaza, and compared it with “the siege of Leningrad during World War Two.” “That’s unacceptable,” declared the Russian president, and warned that when all of Gaza’s 2.2 million civilians “have to suffer, including women and children, it’s hard for anyone to agree with this."   Putin’s comments may have been one hint at the changes underway in the frustratingly opaque Russia-Israel relationship. A close second is this very important article published last Friday on Vzglyad, a security strategy website close to the Kremlin, diplomatically titled “Why Russia remains neutral in the conflict in the Middle East.”  

A very good piece. Highly recommend.

Pepe Expands...

... on this woken, not in Western sense, giant of which American Thinker wrote about a week ago.  

Pepe is correct, it doesn't feel like a war. But if Russia goes to war, a real one, nobody wants to experience that.

Some Friday Business.

Starting from Pepe, who brilliantly observed from Moscow:

In Moscow, their toxic ghosts are always lurking in the background. Yet one cannot but feel sorry for the psycho Straussian neocons and neoliberal-cons who now barely qualify as Zbig “Grand Chessboard” Brzezinski’s puny orphans. In the late 1990s, Brzezinski pontificated that, “Ukraine, a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard, is a geopolitical center because its very existence as an independent state helps transform Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire.” With or without a demilitarized and denazified Ukraine, Russia has already changed the narrative. This is not about becoming a Eurasian empire again. This is about leading the long, complex process of Eurasia integration – already in effect – in parallel to supporting true, sovereign independence across the Global South.

Speaking of which. I do not particularly care about Trump the person, or as POTUS, for that matter--he was and remains an empty suite who never was equipped for dealing with the swamp he so proudly declared he would drain. But his indictment, indeed, opened the can of worms which this country, which goes to hell with a tremendous acceleration, may not survive. As James Kunstler, ever eloquent, notes:

It’s a little early to assess the knock-on effects of the Left’s ecstatic Trumpgasm. A common theme flying across the Web is that Alvin Bragg’s jerry-rigged case will only make a martyr of Mr. Trump, neatly illustrating and personifying the government’s apparent war against its own citizens — making it clear that they will stop at nothing and no one to enforce the corrupt bureaucracy’s will against the public — and that the net result will be to ensure Mr. Trump’s reelection in 2024.

I, of course, am interested in sociopolitical impact of the indictment, but after I researched the "artistic" career of Stormy Daniels, I would say that Trump's taste in women, despite being married to a beautiful woman, is rather an extension of his political tastes--kitsch and low brow. In the end, there are way more attractive pornstars, not to speak of very high level prostitutes, laboring as high end escorts, he could have easily afforded. But that's just me, what do I know. 

Now about EU "peacekeepers" in 404. Sure--more coffins for EU. The whole idea is risible and Russia will wipe them out. As for Lukashenko's attempts to stay relevant against the background of inevitable unification of Russia and Belarus, his "peace gesture"(c) was met, as expected, with this:

Belarusian proposals for a suspension of hostilities in Ukraine can be discussed but they don’t change Moscow’s analysis of the conflict, the Kremlin spokesman has stated. Dmitry Peskov noted that the initiative formulated by the key Russian ally could not be directly compared to the roadmap for peace in Ukraine set out by China. The latest proposals for a truce, which were outlined by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on Friday, involve a ban on the movement of troops and weapons, so neither Russia nor Ukraine could use the armistice to regather their forces.

So, it is same ol', same ol' with Lukashenko, who never abandons his pathological habit of occupying two, or better three, chairs simultaneously, whilst sensing that the logic of the geopolitical events leads him into the irrelevance. Meanwhile in interview to Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 404's Deputy Foreign Minister Melnik admitted:

"Мы не хотим начинать контрнаступление, которое не подготовлено. У нас сейчас приблизительно 50-60 танков с Запада, но русские как сейчас, так и прежде способны ежедневно производить или приводить в боеспособность до десяти танков. А это означает, что мы еще долгое время будем неспособны добиться решающего преимущества на поле боя", — сообщил дипломат.

Translation: "We don't want to start a counter-offensive that is not prepared. We now have about 50-60 tanks from the West, but the Russians, as now and in the past, are capable of producing or bringing combat capability up to ten tanks a day. And this means that we will still have a long time we will be unable to achieve a decisive advantage on the battlefield," the diplomat said.

No shit, geniuses (not Melnik, he understands nothing in the matter), finally someone in Pentagon and London did calculate a required force. Well, I guess attending Army War College and Command and General Staff College finally paid off. Somebody finally got a hold of a real economic capability of Russia--yes, 10 tanks a day x 365 days = 3, 650 tanks a year--and finally calculated that whopping 2 tank battalions of Western tanks is about a week or so of work for Russian tank and anti-tank crews and those pesky Ka-52s and Mi-28s. Ah, yes--the reality is a bitch. But sure, Russians are waiting for the last hope dash of the remnants of VSU and its NATO "allies" and then... well, only Kremlin and General Staff know what's then. Unleash your imagination.

50 Times! Pepe Escobar In Moscow.

I expand here a little bit on the Moscow-Beijing axis, but not before reviewing what Sergei Chemezov and Rostec have in store for friends and enemies alike. 

Meanwhile, Pepe, who is in Moscow now, wrote an excellent piece for the Saker Blog. 

Whatever happens next geopolitically, Russia is at heart a – giant – obstacle on the warmongering path of the Hegemon: the ultimate target is top “threat” China. Putin’s ability to size up our extremely delicate geopolitical moment – via a dose of highly concentrated, undiluted realism – is something to behold. And then Foreign Minister Lavrov provided the sweet cherry on top, calling the hapless US ambassador for a hardcore dress down: oh yeah, this is war, hybrid and otherwise, and your NATO mercenaries as well as your junk hardware are legitimate targets. Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Security Council, now more than ever relishing his “unplugged” status, made it all very clear: “Russia risks being torn apart if it stops a special military operation (SMO) before victory is achieved.” And the message is even more acute because it represents the – public – cue to the Chinese leadership at the Zhongnahhai to understand: whatever happens next, this is the Kremlin’s unmovable official position.

The stage is, indeed, set, but one thing has to be understood--I repeat it non-stop for the last several years--and Vladimir Mozhegov explains it well today (In Russian): 

Russia is different and last Europe.

And she is not saving the previous one. Rightly so. The one which may (may, as in if) come instead of current cloaca--we will cross this bridge when we get to it.