I Think Larry and Pepe ...

 ... have a point about Iran's nukes. It is likely (how likely, IDK) it exists. What is absolutely positive--it is Iran's delivery capability. If nukes exist Iran has a very good delivery capability against any target in the region (Israel, that's you) and parts of Europe. 

There has been a dramatic and noticeable shift in Donald Trump’s rhetoric and social media posts regarding Iran since Pepe and I received the report of Iran’s threat to do a demonstration detonation of a nuclear warhead if the US does not cease its attacks on Iran. Coincidence? I don’t think so. Iran is still willing to negotiate a peaceful end to the war with the US and Israel but is insisting that the US end its blockade, stop its attacks on Iranian vessels, and halt the Israeli attacks in Lebanon. In the latest news we received from the Pakistani source, Pakistani officials are expressing optimism that they will be able to broker a deal between the US and Iran that will culminate in a meeting between Donald Trump and Iran’s President, Masoud Pezeshkian, in Islamabad, Pakistan within the next 40 days. Here’s the raw intelligence:

As is correctly pointed out in graphics--Trump is now selling offramp. 

Meanwhile, Scott unleashes a fiery takedown of Europe at SPIEF and I entirely agree with Scott. 

In fact, I subscribe to every word. Europa Delenda Est! In the US--we will try to figure something out on our own. 

Daniel Davis and Scott ...

 ... excellent discussion. 

I Don't Know ...

 ... what this kid Mario Nawfal was thinking, but pairing a senior officer of the US Marines and a man of principles with some "sniper and special forces" clown with sergeant (nothing personal against sergeants) who drinks 404 Kool Aid. What did Nawfal expect? 

Scott absolutely flattened this "special forces" ass-hole, whose understanding of war is as good as my understanding of the Chinese choreography. Does Nawfal do this on purpose, to create drama by pairing a solid professional with serious intel background with some creep who has no tool kit to grasp operational and strategic realities of SMO? After he was told by Douglas Macgregor to "stop BSing his audience" regarding 404 losses, I begin to think that that is Nawfal's MO to increase his audience. How the fuck this Nawfal guy ended up with Judge Nap and Larry in the same room with Lavrov remains a complete mystery. Two heavyweights and this kid? 

Nawfal is so removed from even basic realities of warfare, let alone operations and strategy, with the background in ... well, "investing", that one must ask the question how this Matt Tardio ended up in the same virtual room with Scott. The only "argument" this sergeant had was to attack Scott's character from the position of knowing nothing about Russia, Russian military and REAL war. I personally am getting tired of listening to all kinds of low rank guys talking about how great they were in ... Afghanistan or Iraq. 

For Your Attention.

Once Volodya starts to talk about asses and air defense... OK, just have fun;) Sadly, there are some issues to discuss beyond this, otherwise, useful discussion. 

Enjoy, if you will.

Larry Johnson On Psyops.

Larry wrote a very good piece. 

I want to focus on the Ukrainian’s desperate attempt to stage horrific attacks to gin up Western hatred of Russia. This has been the most “effective” component of Ukraine’s failing effort to fight Russia. But I put “effective” in quotes because the propaganda pushed about Bucha and the missile attack on Kramatorsk has not compelled NATO to intervene with ground and air forces inside Ukraine. The big show of sending tanks, outdated air defense systems and weapons to Ukraine is not changing the tactical situation on the ground. It just makes us feel better.

Read the whole thing by following the link to Larry's blog. Larry also echoes what I wrote about recently and what is becoming a point which cannot be hushed over anymore. It is not new, but SMO shone a new light on it. 

I am both amused and sickened by the spectacle of the pundit Generals populating the cable news channels. They offer a harsh, delusional criticism of Russia’s lack of progress on the ground in Ukraine without conceding their own failures to pacify Iraq and Afghanistan. Notwithstanding an 800 billion dollar defense budget, the U.S. military failed to defeat the Taliban and failed to secure Iraq. Spending lots of money does not guarantee military success. And the good Lord knows we spent a ton. To what end?

The scariest thing is that those "experts" continue to do what they have been doing professionally for decades--mislead, that is polite way of saying lying, a general public, not to mention the fact of losing professional face among peers from other places. Many Russians are openly laughing at them. It is down right humiliating, but those generals continue to parade themselves as amateurs. Anyway, great piece from Larry, definitely worthy of your attention.