Wednesday, January 26, 2022

I Warned About This 5 Years Ago.

Namely, that LDNR forces can start to "suddenly" get some weapon systems which scare the shit not only from VSU, but from NATO. Recall this from 2017, in a piece symptomatically titled: So, Will Donbass Forces Get Iskanders?

Yes, yes and don't tell me that I didn't warn about it. I did, many times. So, this time to "upgrade" LDNR forces has come. After receiving US "response" to Russia's "non-ulimatum", State Duma, namely ruling party United Russia, initiated the request to the President of Russia and Government of Russia to start the process of rearmament of LDNR forces. Here is the leader of faction Vladimir Vasiliev addressing (in Russian) the President and public. 

This request is a mere formalization and PR recording of the process which, most likely, has been ongoing for some time and this UR statement (request) is not possible without the nod from Kremlin. So, here we are, VSU and those mighty 400 Canadian "advisers" and still larger number of American ones in 404, should start thinking really hard if they want to be on the receiving end of some funny high-precision stand-off weapons in case they succeed in their main objective of pushing VSU to commit suicide by means of attacking LDNR, let alone Russia proper. 

This is just a small warm-up to what will transpire up to breaking off all diplomatic relations with the United States and shutting down every single NGO (a euphemism for operations of influence and sabotage centers). Some begin to worry:

They should, because a very interesting release happened today by the way of FSB. Namely, that last year explosion of the passenger bus in Voronezh was a result not of a gas (propane) explosion, in which two people died and many sustained severe wounds, but was a result of action of a diversionary (terrorist) group from Ukraine (in Russian). All people involved in this terrorist act have been identified and... drum roll... who are people who train these groups? Right, CIA and MI6. Do you get my drift? I am 100% positive names, of those who train them are also well-known to Russians and Russians do not take lightly when foreign powers conduct terrorist acts on their territory. Somebody will have to answer, and I am not talking about Ukrainian perpetrators (those are now walking dead), I am talking about those who trained them and issued orders. So, the main question now is: how economically will the United States commit suicide, because Russia is ready. But then again, most of D.C. "brains" do not even know the actual scale of Russian economy--they have no instruments to grasp it. As for what will "flow into" LDNR--easy: AD, most likely S1 Pantsirs to shut down any UAV activity, possibly Buk-M2s to put NATO's spy-planes on note. Some, maybe already are there, and I am sure LDNR combat teams underwent all necessary training for those. The next, of course, is a flow of latest area fire impact weapons ranging from TOS to Tornado and other MLRS. Other variety of anti-armor and anti-personnel means. Russia will take care of targeting and EW.

Here is some intro to Tornado and it is a nasty-nasty system, which is also good for turning enemy forces preposition areas into a parking lot. 

But in the end, who said that LDNR will not get Iskanders or will not suddenly discover that, hey, dudes, as it turned out we had our small but very hi-tech air force all along. I know, it is so difficult to keep the track of all those Mi-35s and SU-25SMs, they always tend to fall through cracks. 

Chincken-hawks or What Triggers Me.

It is one of my most favorite videos but this hilarious representation of the Korean Conflict applies fully to many US legislators whose only skill is barking. 

I abhor ANY war-monger, anywhere, who never having a real service and background to make even tactical, forget about operational and strategic decisions in their lives bark their non-sense into the air due to their recognition of the fact that they themselves will never have to go and fight, let alone die for the principles they love to show off as their moral compass, while in reality being nothing more than political prostitutes and chihuahuas in human terms. Enter couple of such guys: 

1. Senator Richard Blumenthal. His bio states this:

Born in Brooklyn, New York, Blumenthal attended Riverdale Country School, a private school in the Bronx. He graduated from Harvard College, where he was editor-in-chief of The Harvard Crimson. He studied for a year at Trinity College, Cambridge, in England before attending Yale Law School, where he was editor-in-chief of the Yale Law Journal. At Yale, he was a classmate of Bill and Hillary Clinton. From 1970 to 1976, Blumenthal served in the United States Marine Corps Reserve, attaining the rank of sergeant. After law school, Blumenthal passed the bar and served as administrative assistant and law clerk for several Washington, D.C. figures. From 1977 to 1981, he was United States Attorney for the District of Connecticut. In the early 1980s he worked in private law practice, including as volunteer counsel for the NAACP Legal Defense Fund. ... Blumenthal received five draft deferments during the Vietnam War, first educational deferments, then deferments based on his occupation. In April 1970 Blumenthal enlisted in the United States Marine Corps Reserve which, The New York Times reported, "virtually guaranteed that he would not be sent to Vietnam". He served in units in Washington, D.C., and Connecticut from 1970 to 1976, attaining the rank of sergeant. During his 2010 Senate campaign, news report videos that showed Blumenthal claiming he had served in Vietnam created a controversy. Blumenthal denied having intentionally misled voters, but acknowledged having occasionally "misspoken" about his service record. He later apologized to voters for remarks about his military service which he said had not been "clear or precise"

Yes, Stolen Valor and draft dodging are very wide-spread among US political class, enough to remember Hillary's "courage under fire" and then Brian Williams' being fired upon in Iraq. All of it, obviously, turning out to be a complete BS. So, it is not a bug but a feature. 

2. Representative Joe Courtney. Yet another lawyer pretending to "serve American people", who saw military service on TV in such shows as M.A.S.H. and movies by Oliver Stone, who, BTW, is a bona fide Vietnam Veteran. 

So these two "heroes", who wouldn't know the difference between targeting and firing solution, came up with a brilliant idea: 

American sailors should be prepared to take on Russia and show their strength as the country goes “head to head” with Moscow amid fears of a possible invasion of Ukraine, two US legislators have demanded. ...Blumenthal said that he agreed with President Joe Biden that the US should not send soldiers to fight in Ukraine, but insisted that increasing NATO capabilities in the region would be an important part of showing strength “around the world in other areas where we go head-to-head with the Russians.” In particular, he pointed to the role submarines can play in confronting Moscow. “Undersea warfare – because we’re talking about the Mediterranean, about the Black Sea as potential areas of tension and conflict – is very much in play even though it isn’t directly involved in the confrontation in the Eastern Ukraine area or Crimea or in the northern borders of Ukraine, which represent perhaps the greatest immediate threat in Belarus, where Putin is amassing forces right now.”

I have some news for Blumenthal and his side-kick. The fact that Blumenthal sits on the Armed Services Committee and is privy to some chit-chat by people who know and has access to classified briefings doesn't make him a specialist on naval warfare or any warfare to start with. They don't teach that in Law Schools and it is much harder to command a modern submarine than passing a bar exam. In fact, several order of magnitude harder. But the main news, of course, is the fact that US Navy's submarine forces ARE present in Med and have been there for a long time. So, how "going head-to-head with Russians" in submarine warfare looks like, Blumenthal will not understand even if I, out of goodness of my soul, will agree to give him a course of lectures on hydrology, non-acoustic sensors, tactics and operations, review with his a variety of highly classified tactical and operational manuals related to submarine operations, and maybe even explain to him basics of signal processing and why one doesn't want to use a cookie cutter. Even after that, he still will not understand that, including the fact that this "head-to-head" thing is happening in Med right this very moment as I type this. 

So, I am triggered always, when some uneducated hack (or collection of hacks) who do not know shit from shinola and have ZERO military professional background at least of the tactical officer level begin to wax "Top Gunnish" and based on their Hollywood military porn "expertise" begin to offer their advice on matter they have no clue about. And clue they don't have. Everything they do when offering their nauseating war-mongering fodder is done for a PR purposes only, and serve ONLY one thing they desire above all--to be re-elected to maintain their position of power and possible financial benefits which US Congress affords its members. Considering a very high susceptibility of the American population to military porn and aggressive rhetoric, due to America's utter illiteracy about real war and warfare, this works for people like Blumenthal. It doesn't work, however, in real life and real war, but neither of these two would know anything about it. Nor do they understand how they look like barking chihuahuas when proposing something which is already in place and is ongoing. But then again, look at the video above.

Andrei Raevsky Did a Very Good Write-Up On Fundamentals.

Of actual framework for ground operations, should they come, in LDNR zone by VSU.  A very worthy article, which gives clear definition of relation of forces in a classic offense-defense dichotomy. 

Okay, there is a lot of “bean counting” going on comparing the VSU (Ukie) forces and LDNR forces.  As with all bean counting, this is nonsensical from a military point of view.  I cannot write up a detail lecture here, but I want to point out a few key military concepts. Counting the forces along the line of contact (aka ” Forward Line of Own Troops” (FLOT) or “Forward Edge of Battle Area” (FEBA)) makes no sense since military forces do not attack “full front”.  You might have heard the rule of thumb (no more than just that!!) that you need a force ratio of about 3:1 in favor of an attacking force to overcome the enemy defenses.  As all rules of thumb, this is not quite true, but it useful because it brings in the notion of concentration of forces along the main axis/axes of attack.

Here is Andrei's opening broadside which makes it necessary to read the whole article. Andrei also writes about Russia's Black Sea Fleet. This Fleet today started its exercises with 20 ships, subs and vessels--just in case--to remind NATO that the Black Sea is Russia's internal lake de facto or, if one wishes, Russia's own barrel with fish swimming in it, which creates what is known as target rich environment.  RT (using a dramatic music) has shown today some of the ships of the Fleet setting sail to the open sea. 

My estimates of the first salvo by ships and subs only of the Fleet (I don't count Fleet's attached units ground-based systems) is anywhere between 70 to 80 both anti-shipping and land-attack cruise missiles, albeit the issue of anti-shipping (Sea Denial) role can easily be assigned to primarily land-based Bastions which control all of the Black Sea. So, there you go. As you know the US today has given written response to Russia, which Lavrov said he wouldn't make public on the request of the US side but he says public will know the essence of those responses.

Tuesday, January 25, 2022

Drowned In the Informational Noise.

It is like a famous saying--one cannot be slightly pregnant. So, if after very many days of Russia being literally hours away from "invading Ukraine", namely for 64 days (63 on the moment Bernhard of Moon of Alabama counted), one has to begin to suspect that maybe Russia after all wasn't  getting all ready to "invade" at all. Now, after yet another FUBAR by Anglo-American "intelligence" and "diplomats" amplified by Goebbelsonean propaganda known as MSM, there is an acute necessity to hide obvious facts behind the wall of verbose BS. Indeed, how can you explain this:

In related news, intelligence people are still involved in the search for Iraqi weapons of mass destruction and they should find them any minute now.  I can only imagine how the cabal of the US "diplomats" and "spies", many of who were subjected to Anglo-American version of history and have been taught geopolitics by such people as late Zbig and his many followers, are finding out now that, in fact, not only Russia doesn't need Ukraine but she radically, same as overwhelming majority of Russians, doesn't want it. So many careers, so many reputations, fake as most  of them are in UK and US geopolitical "academe", have been now completely discredited by this fact. So many people sucked on the fat teat of the think-tankdom and abused grants and tenures by pretending that they knew Soviet Union or know modern Russia, that seeing the fundamentals of their world view, however ignorant, to be so ruthlessly smashed by the reality should be pretty disheartening. 

One doesn't have many chances to state his or her academic case in geopolitics due to much longer time-wise processes shaping geopolitical reality when compared to a duration of a single human life, so the probability of a strategic mistake is very high. So, one has to beware of a very high threshold for accuracy when trying to say something about the state of the global affairs. One doesn't need to go far to recall how Fukuyama failed at "looking into the future" and how Brzezinski laid down the foundation for one of the major factors which played into the running the United States into the ground. So, it is not just about the United States hating to look, not to mention actual being, weak, it is also a matter of many people who dealt with pseudo-academic BS in and around London and D.C. trying to save whatever "reputation" and following they obtained, preaching the gospel whose meaning they never understood. I speak about it today here a little bit. 

Is Ischenko prophetic in terms of false flag being done against Ukie government itself? One cannot exclude such a possibility. But we'll see. Meanwhile Russian and Chinese Navies train in the Arabian Sea yesterday:
 
Just in case. Will see what Putin and Xi will decide in Beijing. I think time when China may need to "come out" of her shell is here. Will she? Will learn soon enough.

Monday, January 24, 2022

Good Quote With Some Caveats.

US Responsible Statecraft Institute held a symposium titled: What would US intervention in Ukraine really look like? Obviously the US can not "intervene" since it has neither required force nor resources. But I disagree with Macgregor's assessment in one very important respect:

The talks between Secretary of State Blinken and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov drag on without result. Meanwhile, the Russian military buildup continues without interruption. All of the NATO militaries including United States Forces are turning out to be ‘too late to change the outcome’. It seems that all NATO can do is sit and watch Russia intervene at will in eastern and southern Ukraine. Having failed for at least 20 years to acknowledge Moscow’s legitimate security interests in Ukraine, Washington and its allies will inevitably confront new facts on the ground. The real question for Washington is whether it wishes to live in a state of perpetual conflict or crisis with Moscow? If Washington declines to recognize that Moscow’s interests in the region outweigh its own, Washington may watch as its allies in Europe gradually fade away. Germany, arguably, the cornerstone in NATO’s edifice, is already signaling its readiness to pursue a new policy path toward Moscow that diverges sharply from Washington’s. How many others will follow the German path before NATO ceases to have any real meaning?

He doesn't understand how European "elites" abhor Russians. EU is a genuine article and, unlike the US whose people, for the most part, bar some mental cases of US fake-Christian fundamentalists and coastal cities' fake "intellectuals" and neocons, are normal folks (not to mention the fact that Russian and US rednecks are soulmates) who do not really hate Russians, huge segments of European population are genuine Russophobes. They hate Russia and they genuinely fear her and Russian people. In other words, European's "divergence" is a tactical, not a fundamental, one and EU will continue to hate Russians no matter what, even if for the own gain. That is why Russia reoriented herself to the East.

Me Talking About 50,000.

In reality it is 8,500 without orders. So, PR continues and the whole thing becomes really stale by now. 

Meanwhile, Baltic Fleet gets its corvettes going.
 
Just in case. Do they carry those 500+ kilometer range X-35s? Who knows, wink, wink.

Saturday, January 22, 2022

Pepe Escobar's Excellent Summary.

Of Iran's President Raisi visit o Russia. This quote is of a great importance:

A new Eurasia-led order encompassing the vast majority of the world’s population is a work in fast progress. China using Eurasia as the larger stage to upgrade its global role, in parallel to the fast-evolving Sino-Russian-Iranian interaction, carries larger than life implications for the Western gatekeepers of the imperial ‘rules-based order.’ The de-Westernization of globalization, from a Chinese point of view, does involve a completely new terminology (‘community of shared destiny’). And there are hardly more glaring examples of ‘shared destiny’ than its deeper interconnection with both Russia and Iran. One of the crucial geopolitical questions of our time is how an emergent, supposedly Chinese hegemony will articulate itself. If actions speak louder than words, then Sino-hegemony looks loose, malleable and inclusive, starkly different to the US variety. For one, it concerns the absolute majority of the Global South, which will be involved and vocal. Iran is one of the leaders of the Global South. Russia, deeply implicated in de-Westernizing global governance, holds a unique position – diplomatically, militarily, as an energy provider – as the special conduit between East and West: the irreplaceable Eurasian bridge, and the guarantor of Global South stability. All of that is at play now. It is no wonder that the leaders of the three main Eurasian powers are meeting and holding discussions in person, within just a matter of days. As the Atlanticist axis drowns in hubris, arrogance, and incompetence, welcome to the lineaments of the Eurasian, post-Western world.

Read the whole thing at Saker's blog. It is written by a man with a keen understanding of the region.  It also adds to the picture which Western "elites" must grasp in order to survive in one form or another: Russia made a decision to break off the combined West long time ago, we are just seeing this decision being carried out. Combined West is not West it used to be anymore and is morally, culturally and intellectually malignant. I was on record for years calling for a new Iron Curtain in order to prevent the spread of a social disease from the decomposing West. At this stage I don't see how Western Europe could be saved, considering who runs it and majority of its population still believing that the gravy train of EU "socialism" and welfare may accelerate yet again. It will not, it is in a process of grinding to a complete halt with no chances moving ever again--mechanisms are broken down and there is no fuel to run it. It is basic modern economy logic. I mean real economy, of course, not a BS of stock exchanges and currency speculators.

Friday, January 21, 2022

Meat Loaf, R.I.P.

I cannot believe this(((

A genuine, genuine talent and one of the best rock-voices in history.  

R.I.P., legend.

It Is Friday. Chrysta Bell, Help Us.

Let's relax and enjoy a true art of incomparable Chrysta Bell from her latest album. That is what you get when you are THE muse of David Lynch and are an enormous talent in your own right. That feels like a finest cognac, or, in my case, the most delicate and finest of whiskeys.  

Exquisite, simply exquisite musically and visually.

That's Gotta Hurt.

But it is inevitable that points that really matter will be brought up. It is also not surprising that Tucker is the one who brings them. While I somewhat disagree with overly alarmist points about the US being sucked into the war with Russia, it goes without saying that at least some people in Pentagon and CIA have an idea about what it means, and, frankly, Tucker speaks about. But what he says between 4:50 and 4:58 is the point hidden deeply, away from the attention of the American public. 

The whole mythology of the "finest fighting force in history" is built around a single event of beating the shit out of the backward third world Saddam's Army after half-a-year of assembling and predeploying Coalition Troops in the area while bombing the shit out of Iraq with impunity, because of the ancient Iraqi air-defense and de facto non-functional air force. That's it. It's like a credit history and they don't want to remind about it to Americans by means of obfuscating facts. The military where pompous mediocrity Patton is considered a "great tactician", never mind he never fought a first rate Wehrmacht at the top of its power, not to mention sappy sentimental, completely contrived, BS of totally mythical, non-existent that is, "Patton-Rommel rivalry", is a good indicator that something is wrong with facts on the ground. I am not even sure Rommel, himself grossly inflated in his abilities by Monty and Churchill to inflate their role in WW II, knew who Patton was. And that's just one example out of many. Tucker said it, loud and clear. So, Tucker, yes, there are many of those who lost those five wars who still think that they can win a modern 21st century war with the 20th century force structure and TOE. 

Weekend Is Coming.

So I decided to try to say something coherent in the first day when I don't have to eat pain-killers in the industrial amounts.  So, here is my slightly disfigured (after root canal and several rounds of lidocaine due to resistance to numbing in this particular case on Wednesday, lucky me) face. 

In related news, Andrei Raevsky (The Saker) sent me this: 

The reason this came into focus is the fact that The Saker's famous blog is doing very well beating in rankings many prominent sites and blogs. You can see Andrei's rank here. I am not specialist in all those rankings but I certainly can see the numbers of daily visits to this blog and they grow, no doubt about it. Hey, good that my opinion seems to matter. I am just trying to do my job and, incidentally, am in a transition to a full time writing and making videos. In this case those numbers have an impact through Patreon, however indirectly. So, these are the news. I will post later a wonderful piece of music by incomparable Chrysta Bell--Agent Tammy Preston in Twin Peaks: The Return and real life muse of David Lynch--an incredible art those people make. It requires a separate post.

Thursday, January 20, 2022

Good God!

Russia is being damaged as I type this because of millions upon millions of Russians having a severe sudden hernia symptoms due to a Homeric laughter after Mr. Blinken in his remarks "addressed" Russians with the BS of unimaginable proportions, starting at 1:08:00

I mean, there are good medications and treatments available for treating schizophrenia and delusion, but at this stage even that may not be enough to treat a severe case of the US "diplomacy" parading itself as a bunch of ignorant clowns not understanding that Russians are not that stupid. But as great American Mark Twain once stated:

“Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.” 

I understand that this sounds very unfair as a blanket statement but US "diplomacy" in general is not a diplomacy--it is a bunch of lawyers who are trained to spew same BS time after time and avoid any substantive answers to anything. Part of it is because they don't know any better. And, yes, Blinken and his ilk they do think that Russians are morons, because they never knew real ones, with the exception of Russian diplomats, and have experience only with fringe Russophobic groups (such as Navalny's org) of freaks who are morons and who supply the US with expertise based entirely on BS. Recall this "intelligence professional" Rebekah Koffler who wouldn't know shit from shinola but still sold, successfully, her comical "knowledge of Russia's strategic culture" to US "intelligence".  No shit, that is why the US finds itself where it is today. Who needs Russian psyops when one has "experts" such as Solzhenitsyn, Koffman, Bezmenov or whoever "advises" Mr. Blinken in State Department on Russia. My question, however, is simple--if they know that they preach BS what is then the level of psychopathy in these people that that can live with this. If, on the other hand, they are true believers I think Russia did absolutely the right thing by putting them against the wall and refusing to hold "secret negotiations" and demanded public answers. Read Mark Twain's quote, you do not argue with idiots. 

In related news and approaching Friday. I love this meme from 1970s, because it applies to me fully too))

The top: when you tell about the USSR. The bottom: how you actually looked in the USSR. Those bell bottoms, Good God! LOL.

Wednesday, January 19, 2022

America Needs War.

Desperately. In this particular instance the war is more needed on Democrat's side of the isle  due to a variety of reasons, which are:

1. US being caught in the Catch 22 of Russia's "ultimatum" and having no other ideas about how to extricate itself from Ukraine's conundrum;

2. The coming trashing of Democrats at the upcoming mid-terms, aggravated by POTUS' "excellent" rating;

3. With Democrats' agenda imploding as I type this and massive systemic crisis engulfing combined West.

The US, being geopolitically one trick pony, is hell-bent on pushing Russia towards invasion of the country Russians neither want nor need and would prefer NATO (and US with EU) cleaning up and paying for the mess they created in 404. The US desire is so strong that good ol' Joe went on record today. 

Of course,  it remains a matter of speculation on what conflict POTUS had in mind (maybe he meant China and Taiwan, or whatever), but the truth is--Washington  is desperate. So much so that it continues to issue empty threats promising Russia a "catastrophe" and even forbidding Russia any operations with the US Dollar (in Russian). I slowly reach for a pop-corn bucket.  Not to be outdone, of course, are all kinds of professional abusers of legislative positions such as Connecticut Democrat Chris Murphy promising: 

Sen. Chris Murphy appeared Tuesday on Anderson Cooper 360, where the Connecticut Democrat addressed the growing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, with Russia now reportedly having hundreds of thousands of troops posted at the Ukrainian border. Though Russia invaded Crimea, a pro-Russia area of Ukraine, in 2014 with little pushback, Murphy said things would go much differently if Russian President Vladimir Putin were to invade. “There is going to be continued U.S. assistance, assistance to an army that’s ready to fight and a population that is not just going to let Russia march into the center of Ukraine,” Murphy said. “Putin seems to be getting absolutely horrible advice. People telling him he is going to be greeted as some kind of liberator in a country that has turned against Russia over the last 10 years and is going to fight for its survival.”

Well, for starters you can look up this Senator's biography filled with studies of combined arms operations, deployments into operational zones, degrees in weapon system integrations... Ah, wait, I am screwing with you. Senator's pathos about "army that's ready to fight" and, especially, which is funny, about population are the occasions on which I always like to enroll the help from Sergei Victorovich Lavrov:

because at this stage one has to ask a question: how else these people want to embarrass their own country by the virtue of them being elected to the positions they are utterly unqualified for? They literally have no grasp of the reality, especially economic one (forget military--it is impossible to explain to average US politician what it is) outside of their constituency. But hey, what do I know. People continue to ask me to comment on this or that statement or talking by one or the other American "expert" on Russia. Read my lips: bar some few exceptions, US academe, including those who specialize in Russia are not experts. They are narrative-mongers, majority of who have no serious skills, background nor experience in anything they try to "analyze" about Russia--this problem is systemic and is due to a complete corruption of the America's education, especially history and military history and over-saturation of the American body-politic by people without any serious education or lawyers. It is literally the situation of auto-mechanic with vocational school performing an open heart surgery and thinking that he knows what he is doing. You can easily predict the result, for a patient.    

Tuesday, January 18, 2022

Paul Craig Roberts' Broadside.

And this is a broadside I entirely agree with. In his latest PCR writes: 

As an old cold warrior as a member of the anti-Soviet Committee on the Present Danger and as a member of a secret presidential committee that helped Reagan end the Cold War, I can tell you that I am astonished that Washington has not heard what the Russians have, in all frankness, told them. If the Committee on the Present Danger had heard the Russians say this in the 1980s, we would have told President Reagan to acknowledge their concern and reduce the tension. Today the situation is so different that to an experienced cold warrior such as myself it is extremely scary. But the idiots in Washington, who face a far more powerful Russia armed with weapons that Washington can only dream about, have no fear. Washington, the collection of the most stupid and arrogant people in the world, is exposing human life to untold risk on the sole basis of Washington’s belief in its own omnipotence.

As many people, me included, are on record--the danger is not America's strength but its weakness which many in D.C. refuse to acknowledge due to hubris and sheer incompetence. As if echoing PCR's sentiment, yesterday Vladimir Solovyov spoke to State Duma's Chair of Committee on Defense, colonel-general Andrey Kartopolov, his biography speaks for itself.  Sadly, this important conversation is only in Russian. It is about possible war between Russia and NATO. 

Kartapolov is of extremely low opinion on European NATO members' military capabilities and is of somewhat better one on the US Armed Forces, but you can easily recognize that he tries to hide his real attitude behind the wall of a politeness. He also speaks in conclusion about the meaning of 3M22 Zircon and what it brings to the table. If anyone can translate or CC this conversation that would be greatly appreciated. This is not some "political" general speaking--the guy commanded Russia's ground forces in Syria at the height of combat operations there. I thought it was important to let you know about this conversation too.

Sitrep For 01/18/22.

My talking head. 

Germany behaves clearly strangely. To put it mildly.
 

Monday, January 17, 2022

They Missed Lessons...

Which is not surprising. For decades what passed in the West for military science was the ability to create bogus pseudo-military narratives saturated with relevant and not quotes from classic military thinkers--Sun Tzu, Clausewitz, Delbruck, Mahan et al--in attempts to apply expired lessons of the past to modernity, or explain "tactics" in terms of what many professionals came to regard as a military porn. Some people from Cuban "think-tank" lacking understanding of real operational and strategic (I omit tactics here) dimension of the conflict between Russia in the West start their Cuba's "regime change" with a broadside of illiterate BS:

I have no idea why these two Cuban ex-pats bring Cuban missile crisis here at all, not to mention the fact that they give a wrong representation of this crisis to start with. It was about US Jupiter ballistic missiles in Turkey which precipitated Cuban Missile Crisis which the authors of this piece forget. It is not surprising, considering a hysterical and strategically illiterate manifesto these people provided. Apart from the obvious lack of any touch with the reality in regards to Ukraine (I have no idea how some Ph.D. in Cuban History can have any ideas about the reality there), those people make two major, in fact gaping, mistakes. They state that: 

Washington’s messy withdrawal from Afghanistan sent a message of weakness to America’s enemies that animated both Russia and China into a more aggressive posture in Ukraine, and Taiwan respectively.

I understand these two dudes (as well as their org) have an agenda to push but, come on, not by spewing an obvious BS which doesn't even pass the smell test in terms of proper timing. Do I need to remind these two "experts" (a euphemism for grant-abusers in all kinds of US ethnic agenda "think-tanks") events of 2008 or 2014, how about events of 2015. What about events of March 1, 2018, what about other events which provide an easily recognizable pattern of Russians knowing exactly what the US is militarily and economically. But I am sure, while pulling Clausewitz' abused quote about war (do these two "experts" even know the Deng Xiaoping's version of this dictum?), they call for shutting down of Nord Stream 2. Sure, let the US do this, I will need a bucket of pop-corn. Of course, our two strategic "thinkers" arrive, inevitably, to this conclusion:  

A weak America makes for a more dangerous and uncertain world because it encourages international aggression. Americans will support these and similar efforts that should not be a partisan issue.

I think these two agenda-pushers should ask another 100% USDA approved neocon and "strategic thinker" from their neck of the woods, Senator Marco Rubio. While this Senator, still reeling from the death of his and other GOP legislators' main benefactor Sheldon Adelson, tries to present (so cute) a threatening posture towards Russia, even this neocon can contradict these two "academics" and I quote: 

My entire life, I've been an unabashed believer in American exceptionalism and consistent evangelist of the American Dream. But when I ran for president, I learned that many Americans did not share my optimism. 

American Affairs, Common Good Capitalism: An Interview With Marco Rubio. Spring 2020, page 3.  

Oh boy, there is nothing more inspiring than America's ethnic lobbies ranging from AIPAC to Eastern European, to Latino to what have you, who push their own agendas most of which are not only in any way beneficial to the interests of the majority of Americans but more often than not run counter to them and are in the foundation of the present America's geopolitical and economic conundrum, especially when these agendas are pushed by people who are either ill-equipped or altogether are utterly unqualified for offering their advice on any geopolitical and military matter, especially in modern warfare paradigm. This piece by two Cuban "academics" is an exhibit A of utterly illiterate people in modern geopolitics offering their sophomoric thoughts. Especially when not understanding military-technological capabilities of Russia to counter-threat the US even without the use of Cuba.

In related news, on 20 January the session of State Duma will start with the address by the Iranian President Ebrakhim Raisi (in Russian), who will be in Moscow on personal invitation of Vladimir Putin. After that, Raisi will meet leaders of Islamic Ummah of Russia which is predominantly... Sunni. Time for a pop-corn. I should continue with my videos probably tomorrow.

Saturday, January 15, 2022

When I Get Tired....

...from reading and hearing yet another pompous bullshit from some random British establishment or media representative, I always go for a jugular and... watch Duchess Kate Middleton and marvel at her real beauty and femininity. Boy, House of Windsor certainly scored 10 on this one, and I always laugh when some creep from paparazzi tries to compare Kate to late Princess Diana--there is no comparison, Kate outshines everyone who ever was in the limelight near Buckingham Palace for the last 50 years (maybe 100) by the order of magnitude.  


She is a truly beautiful woman who is a delight to look at (while the wife is not around) and she is the one who helps me to avoid questioning mental and cognitive abilities of the UK's political establishment, because in terms of morons per capita UK certainly gives the US a run for its money and sometimes even lovely Duchess cannot help. 

Enter yet another product of Sandhurst. 

Ben Wallace has accused Vladimir Putin of Tsarist ambitions as he said there will be “severe economic sanctions” if Ukraine is invaded. The Defence Secretary made his comments after high-stakes talks this week between Nato and Russia failed to find a solution to the Kremlin’s increasingly threatening behaviour towards its neighbour. Citing a 5,000-word essay that the Russian president wrote last summer entitled “On the historical unity of Russians and Ukrainians”, Mr Wallace said that he had been unable to “separate” himself from Mr Putin’s belief that “Ukraine really is Russian”. “I’m concerned that what this is really about is President Putin’s legacy; that is about a false vision, a Russia that even the Tsars failed to create and consolidate – that is the Russia of Belarus, Ukraine and Russia,” he said. In a stark warning, Mr Wallace said that this “motto of the tsars for the Russian Empire” had “far deeper consequences for the security of Eastern Europe, because it doesn’t stop at Ukraine”. He likened Mr Putin’s further ambitions to “ethnonationalism”, cautioning that “in our history of Europe, ethnonationalism has led to some of the worst conflicts in the last millennium”.

Wallace, definitely, has issues with reading comprehension because both Putin's article and every other statement re: 404 after that was about the fact that Russia doesn't want any war with Ukraine and that Russia is fully content with Ukraine existing within the Germany-Austria framework, when Ukraine becomes a neutral independent country. Wallace also is a bit shaky on a "Tsarist thing" because he definitely doesn't know Russia's history, which is not surprising considering such Sandhurst's "products" as Antony Beavor who passes for "military historian" in Anglo-world and who is a proud heir to a British Russophobic propaganda purveyors. Just one example out of many. 

So, it will be really important to Wallace to resign himself to the fact that modern Russia has no intentions to create Russia per "tsarist vision" nor that Britain is an empire, but a second tier country which is economically, militarily, scientifically and culturally is dwarfed by Russia and no amount of pseudo-historic BS from 10 Downing Street and its structures ranging from MI-6 to Foreign Office can change this fact. In related news, Mr. Wallace should take a look at the calendar and take in a simple fact--it is 2022, not 19th century. It matters, really. But, as I said, a strategic constant is called constant for a reason and it is very simple--if it comes to it, Russia will be able to "regime change" in Kiev with all what comes with it and the combined West can do nothing about it, least of all UK. 

Per "sanctions", good God, Russia doesn't care and continues her withdrawal from the primarily US-controlled institutions at an accelerated rate. I am sure Vladimir Putin is still in deep depression that he will not be able to shop in Harrods or in some boutiques in Paris and Milan selling overpriced and overrated crap, wink-wink. of course, Russians love English Premier League and are still enamored by the classic English Literature, not to mention counting Beatles and Pink Floyd, among many others, as a pinnacle of British creative genius, but that's about it. UK is simply not that important anymore. 

In related comedy news:

Yes, we all saw how good CIA's "training" is in Afghanistan. Including CIA's tactical and situational (lack) of awareness, not to mention the fact that IF (i underscore it--IF) Russia DOES decide to settle Ukrainian issue, CIA should know, Russia has very good, in fact, outstanding ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance and Recon) complex and VSU and its numerous "trained" units will cease to exist really fast. Somebody explain to these CIA "instructors" what modern war is with such country as Russia. I think they missed a few important lessons on what it means to fight a real enemy. I hear Russia's SSO shaking in their boots from fear, not.

Friday, January 14, 2022

Victoria's Not So Secrets.

Vika shares here her experiences of life in Russia. But the funniest thing I found about her (positive) experiences is the fact that she feels "equal", meaning no racism. The reason I smiled about it and considering that she is married to a Russian guy Fedor, is the fact that Vika like a fine wine gets better and better, more beautiful with every passing year and majority of Russian guys know a true femininity and beauty when they see it. Vika qualifies 150% and nobody cares about her skin color--she is simply deadly cute in her own right. 

It is Friday, so I decided to lighten things up a bit. Since its Friday:
 
This is the sound which is missing badly in music today.

My Attempt...

To give some operational perspective. 

It is technical with some of it already described in this blog and yes, it doesn't generate as much response as other videos because it is technical and it has some math.

Thursday, January 13, 2022

My Head Talking About Zircon And Other Things.

Me, trying to stay current. 

Including trying to convince people that "disintegration" is a very bad idea. But then again, a large portion of US media are war criminals who push a suicide on the nation (or what's left of it, anyway) and we are talking about utterly uncultured and uneducated people.

Wednesday, January 12, 2022

3M22 Zircon Is Officially Accepted For Service.

 For surface ships as standard weapon system. TASS reports:

Translation:  MOSCOW, January 13. / TASS /. Based on the results of state tests, the State Commission recommended that the Zircon hypersonic cruise missile be deployed on surface ships of the Russian Navy. This was reported to TASS by a source close to the military department. "Based on the results of state tests of the Zircon hypersonic missile from a surface carrier, the State Commission recommended that it be adopted by surface ships of the Russian Navy," he said. According to the interlocutor of the agency, tests of Zircon from an underwater carrier after two successful launches performed in the fall of 2021 should continue in 2024.

At this stage the carriers of Zirkon are FFGs pr. 22350 (Admiral Gorshkov-class), pr. 20385 Corvettes and modernized pr. 1155 FFGs, Udaloy-class (see Marshal Shaposhnikov). All in all we can see already at least 5 Zircon carriers afloat in Russia's surface fleet with the number growing to 11 by mid 2020s, which, by that time submarine carriers of Zircon also adding to the number of carriers. Welcome to the new era of the naval warfare. I assume that some of the Karakurts (pr. 22800) and pr. 21631 Buyan class will also be able to carry Zircon or its "smaller" 500 kilometer range version Zircon Llite. And, of course, once completed, Admiral Nakhimov nuclear battlecruiser will carry a shitload of Zircons. We can only guess how many, since among 174 VLS on Nakhimov, 80 will be loaded with anti-surface missiles. Now, we expect new Vladimir Putin's address to Federal Assembly fairly soon (it was expected, quoting Peskov, "early in 2022"), so will see what other things Putin will be talking about. That gives a new meaning to Russia demanding the US to either accept or decline officially the terms of Russia's security arrangement. Introduction of Zircon into service also means, most likely, that land-based version is either ready or is nearing a completion. Not that Russia doesn't have other means to make NATO feel very nervous. New M=12+ and 1500 kilometer range 3M22M for surface combatants is most likely not far away either.

New TU-160 And Other Things.

It is literally NEW, like everything is new in it--from materials, to new engines, to new avionics, to new aggregates. New. Many thought it was impossible to do, well UAC did it. Today brand new TU-160 flew for the first time. 

Meanwhile, what Novatek does in Murmansk on its new gigantic wharf for building off-shore (floating) natural gas liquification plants is immense. 
IBM's big honcho Arvind Krishna expressed doubts that Russia will be able to create own quantum computers. He expressed it in 2020. Today, in 2022 MFTI presented Russia's first five-cubit quantum integral processor (in Russian). I don't doubt Mr. Krishna's competencies as an electrical engineer, I highly doubt his competencies in Russia and her scientific capabilities. In fact, I think he has no clue. He is not the first, nor he is the last one.

Stephen Marche Is an Idiot.

Which you would expect from the guy with degree in modern English Drama and the guy whose expertise horizon is limited to the spacial format of his house (or condo, whatever) and the screen of his computer. He is VERY representative what passes today for Anglo-Saxon "intellectual elite" and this drama post-doctorate "specialist" gives it a go, on the pages of the Washington Post, bloviating on a possibility of US split into several countries. Here is one of his "thoughts":

And the United States might well be better off as separate countries. It might be healthier, more rational, less prone to violence. Secession would not have to be seen as a failure, given the tensions tearing the country apart.The main difference between the American separatist movements and those in the rest of the world is that the countries that emerge from the separation could join the world quite comfortably as independent nations. If Texas were a country, it would have a GDP of $1.59 trillion, tenth in the world, slightly below Brazil and slightly ahead of Canada. It would certainly look like a country, 47th in population, 40th in size. California is even larger. With a GDP of $2.88 trillion, it recently passed Britain to become the fifth largest economy in the world. It would rank 36th in population, with the world’s largest technology and entertainment sectors. A separate California would have the largest national median income in the world.

I omit here a gaping absence of even a glimpse of  mechanism which could have provided for "peaceful" separation--you wouldn't expect that from English drama theorist--but even if to imagine that such "divorce" is possible, a contingency even this drama writer admits is highly unlikely, his ideas about economies are downright risible and only underscore a complete detachment from the reality of people who in the West pass for "intellectuals". 

It is impossible to explain to Marche that his pop-statistics in economy is nothing more that white board pseudo-intellectual excrement from US "economists" who think that one can sustain economy by printing money. Apart from well-known books' cooking by Wall Street types when "calculating" the actual size of the US economy--it is dwarfed by China's and in its physical size is stunningly small for a country with population of 330+ million--it seems Marche doesn't understand that the economies of the US States he mentions mean something only synergetically when combined they produce more than the sum of their individual productions. Even today the US economy remains tightly interconnected system whose economic divorce will not produce California with GDP (grossly overvalued) of $2.88 trillion but will see California, Texas' or any other state's economy shrinking catastrophically with incalculable social consequences. 

Texas may pretend whatever it wants about itself but without the rest of the country it will fast shrink and lose most of its capabilities it boasts today. How do I know this? Well, I lived through this and I have some clue what real hi-tech economy is--no, it is not some "tech" giants from Silicon Valley. Well, at least Marche gets a clue here:

A separate Texas wouldn’t have the power of the current United States in global negotiations. It would just be another midsize country with no history and no connections. The rest of the world would give as much attention to an oppressed Texas as it gave to Xinjiang in 2009 — i.e., none.

Same goes for California or any other state and it will be doubtful that any of them separately can even recover from inevitable economic and social calamity, especially--I underscore it--especially "democrat" states which will be run into the ground very fast once completely removed from basic principles of the American Constitution and Bill of Rights. We will simply get more collective Detroits, Seattles and San-Franciscos. But GOP states have no reason for schadenfreude--they doubtfully will fare much better when based on the neo-liberal economic policies which ARE in the foundation of a systemic crisis in the West, which is the crisis of economic liberalism. 

But in the end: what to do with the American nuclear arsenal? That will be the issue major powers  such as China and Russia will have to address. Any entity emerging from such disintegration of the United States will be militarily ultimately weak, if not impotent, even if to consider this theoretical blue-red split. In reality, this blue-red split is highly oversold and, bar some hotbeds of the "democrat" insanity which they present as hotbeds of "intellectualism" and "culture", such as NYC, crime-ridden Chicago or shit-hole San-Francisco, this split is primarily, not exclusively, driven by DNC corporate media. These media and the political establishment they serve do not understand that in times of such a crisis as we have on our hands today all, a WHOLE, American political class and "intellectuals" supporting it are utterly incompetent in the craft of actual governance and are incapable of developing a set of policies which can completely reformulate America's national interest, re-calibrate capabilities and prevent a catastrophe which, indeed, may lead to America's violent disintegration due to feebleness, cowardice and incompetence of the whole of the America's establishment. 

Marche's piece in the Washington Post--a mouthpiece of DNC and a propaganda outlet for the most insane economic and social policies--is a perfect example of the sheer idiocy of the ideas Western "intellectuals" generate in a face of problems and troubles which they positively cannot solve, because they don't have what it takes to do so. I have no problem with Marche's English Drama background per se but, as his meandering piece shows, he doesn't have intellectual and professional wherewithal to discuss the problem of America's disintegration as well as point out to a complete intellectual bankruptcy of the Western creative class which spearheaded many of the social and cultural practices which, indeed, helped to radicalize America.   

Tuesday, January 11, 2022

Again on the Run, Again Off the Cuff...

It never ceases. I mean life. I address immediately the issue which interests everybody. Give it a thought, for a minute by asking these few basic questions and then answering them:

1. Q: Do Russians know who people in D.C. are? 

A: Yes, they do, in fact, I think they know it better than people in D.C. themselves. 

2. Q: Did Russia issue ultimatum to NATO in hope of a compromise? 

A: NO! The reason Russia issued this ultimatum was to publicly frame what will happen after the expected "maneuvering" by the US (I do not count Europe here at all--they are nobodies). 

3. Q: Do Russians have a military contingency plan in case (highly probable, but not fully guaranteed) the US throwing the tantrum and "refusing" this ultimatum? 

A: Yes. As Bismark is known to say: even when going to toilet for number 2 Russian makes a plan(c). Not arguably, but historically--Russian General Staff is the best planner not just militarily but across the whole spectrum of national security and national interests issue. Nobody comes even close. 

Russia DOES have all military-technological, economic and political  means to stop NATO expansion, NATO's desires notwithstanding--simple as that. I write about the widening technological and operational gap for many years now. 

On  a side note, judging by the hysteria in the Sikorski-Applebaum fanatic neocon family, they sense what is coming. 

Here is a fine specimen of a product of British and American higher education and what passes for "diplomacy" here. So, that's the "level". Can you imagine discussing anything with this dude or his wife Anne Applebaum, who specializes in a-historical BS and has a "degree" in it. Reality is not their specialization, BSing is. Remarkably, Sikorski will not be able to explain why Russia needs Poland? Poland has been thoroughly deindustrialized and lives to a large degree on EU's handouts. Russia doesn't need freeloaders. Poland is Poland and let Poland solve her problems on her own. Depending on the course of actions by Russia, Poland may even benefit in the long run by returning Lemberg (Lvov) to herself once 404 issue will be settled. Simple as that.

Monday, January 10, 2022

A Little Bit Of My Talking Head.

Here is my latest: 

But then yet another pearl drops out of the shell of the modern US governance. Jen Psaki warned (TASS reports--try to find this in US media, not easy) about the "spread of disinformation" about Geneva talks and "obligations the US didn't" take upon itself. Good God, Jen, Ryabkov is on record--any treaty with the US is not worth the paper it is written on. Can anyone explain to her what "the forms must be obeyed" expression is and what does it imply? Our common friend Larchmonter couple of days ago astutely noted, and I quote: The West in all its forms is like Wiley Coyote. Everything blows up in his face (c). Couldn't have said it better myself. 

Who would have thought about it even 10 years ago.

Sunday, January 9, 2022

Couple of Points.

First point is a squealing of Turkish assets once their balls are placed in the vice of real geopolitics and real military power. As Azeri news agency Haqqin (Time) reports: 

Председатель партии «Туран» Джахандар Байоглу призвал отстранить от власти в Азербайджане всех пророссийских чиновников. По его словам, страна должна пойти на этот шаг, чтобы обезопасить себя от внешнего влияния. Политик подчеркнул, что необходимо взять под контроль и отстранить от руководства всех пророссийских чиновников, депутатов и руководителей общественных организаций. Председатель партии призвал главу государства распустить Милли Меджлис и начать новые социально-экономические реформы. Байоглу считает, что если руководство страны не пойдет на эти решительные шаги, то в Азербайджане могут повториться события, которые происходят в Казахстане. Он добавил, что пророссийские силы просочились в структуры МВД, СГБ и Минобороны. Политик также призвал как можно скорее завершить переход азербайджанской армии на модель турецкой армии.

Translation: The chairman of the Turan party, Jahandar Bayoglu, called for the removal of all pro-Russian officials from power in Azerbaijan. According to him, the country should take this step in order to protect itself from external influences. The politician stressed that it is necessary to take control and remove from the leadership of all pro-Russian officials, deputies and heads of public organizations. The party chairman called on the head of state to dissolve the Milli Mejlis and start new socio-economic reforms. Bayoglu believes that if the country's leadership does not take these decisive steps, then the events that are taking place in Kazakhstan may repeat in Azerbaijan. He added that pro-Russian forces have infiltrated the structures of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the State Security Service and the Ministry of Defense. The politician also called for the completion of the transition of the Azerbaijani army to the model of the Turkish army as soon as possible.

Aw, how cute)) I have news for this Turan dude, the first pro-Russian official in Azerbaijan is its President Ilham Aliev who is a good friend of Vladimir Putin and, unlike Erdogan, is extremely well-educated and cultured man who understands the real score. And there is a lot to this score what Bayoglu doesn't understand precisely because he is the leader of Turan party. I will omit here elaboration of a fallacy of pan-Turkism but, of course, events in Kazakhstan just all but killed this idea in every practical sense and it is not only Ankara which cries now, there are very many people in London who, yet again, discovered that contrived geopolitical concepts mean very little if you are not a superpower. UK is NOT a superpower, it is a second rate power which still suffers from phantom pains of once greatness which is no more. They better learn and internalize this fact both at Downing Street 10 and at Hanslope Park. The sun has set on your empire, just live with it. 

The second point is Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov stating today: 

"Так что НАТО надо собирать манатки и отправляться на рубежи 1997 года". 

Translation: NATO has to pack up its things and move back to the borders of 1997.  

I know, it hurts, there will be (already, actually) many pompous statements from the likes of Tony Blinken or Jens Stoltenberg but, thanks to Bernhard of Moon of Alabama who posted brilliant Michael Brenner's piece on US foreign policy, it is totally warranted to present what one of very few true American foreign policy experts writes about the mental state of US "elites". 

U.S. engagements in the world over the past 20 years reveal a grim record of failed ventures. Most have been caused by unrealistic goals, blinkered views of the field of action, overweening pride, an ignorance of foreign places and their history, and an unseemly readiness to take complacent comfort in fantasy worlds that exist only in its own imagination. In short, American foreign policy has been misguided – badly and consistently misguided. The inevitable frustrations and failures owe equally to sheer incompetence. An endless string of errors – diplomatic, military and political – is as difficult for the nation to reconcile with its ‘can-do’ self-image as is the admission of the glaring discrepancy between the belief in the country’s providential mission and its increasingly evident ordinariness. 

This is another salient point Brenner makes: 

Americanism provides a Unified Field Theory of self-identity, collective enterprise, and the Republic’s enduring meaning. When one element is felt to be in jeopardy, the integrity of the whole edifice becomes vulnerable. In the past, American mythology energized the country in ways that helped it to thrive. Today, it is a dangerous hallucinogen that traps Americans in a time warp more and more distant from reality. There is a muted reflection of this strained condition in the evident truth that Americans have become an insecure people. They grow increasingly anxious about who they are, what they are worth and what life will be like down the road. This is an individual and collective phenomenon. They are related insofar as self-identity and self-esteem are bound up with the civic religion of Americanism. To a considerable degree, it’s been like this since the very beginning. A country that was “born against history” had no past to define and shape the present. A country that was born against tradition had no rooted and common sense of meaning and value that cut deeply into the national psyche. A country that was born against inherited place and position left each individual at once free to acquire status and obliged to do so for insignia of rank were few.

This is an excellent definition of the underlying causes for the American "exceptionlaism" which is an obverse side of insecurity. I write about it non-stop for decades, really. My first book is almost entirely built around this premise. Reality, like gravity, is a bitch--no number of narratives by ignorant and uneducated American journos can obfuscate it without creation of a serious nation-wide cognitive dissonance which inevitably translated into the psychological, if not psychiatric, disorders on a massive scale. Reality will inevitably bite into one's ass no matter how one tries to construct own alternative "reality". Will see how it will go in Geneva tomorrow but Ryabkov was actually very upbeat today about preliminary talks, meaning dinner, (in Russian). We'll see. Geneva is just a start, Russia is not interested in humiliating the US at this stage (the US does a swell job on its own) and still leaves an honorable, face-saving exit for the US, which, in the end could be presented as a triumph of common sense and superpowers working together. For the US internally it could play well against the background of upcoming mid-terms and a serious economic downturn. 

If not, well--chose on your own pawns which will be removed form the "chess board" by Russia and what new weapon systems will be announced and deployed without leaving NATO any option but to capitulate. But that is the food for thought for tomorrow. This is just a part of the VTA's IL-76s yesterday, at some point of time during the day, in Alma-Ata airport alone. 

As you all know VTA was also transporting ODKB forces to other Kazakh cities, so make your own conclusions on Russia's air mobility capability. Giant AN-124s are not even shown here, while they were also actively involved in deployment of ODKB forces.

224th Flight Detachment of Russian Defense Ministry, which operates those giants, has 8 of them at its disposal. Single An-124 can, well, just get acquainted here with what cargo can a single 124 take on-board, and keep in mind that its can also take some number of paratroopers in its pressurized compartments. Most of VDV personnel is carried by IL-76s. Those who had to, they got the message.