Arrival of 3M22 ...

 ... Zircons (four of them) into Goloseevskii district of Kiev this night. 

As you can see yourself NATO air defense is very effective (wink, wink) in intercepting these backward and highly inexpensive weapons. Nah, I am screwing with you))

Yes, And?

Those admissions are important, of course. Especially from The National Interest tabloid which gave the start to all kinds of pseudo-military BSers like Michael Peck, as an example. After the departure of Dmitry Simes as its publisher, the whole rag went US exceptionalist until events overtook narratives. Now they admit:

America has all but thrown in the towel in the great race to achieve hypersonic weapons capability. Not only is China ahead of the United States in this domain, but the Russian Federation is apparently lightyears ahead of both. One such Russian system that is redefining the face of modern warfare is the 3M22 Zircon. This impressive system has now been married to the Yasen-class nuclear-powered submarine, giving the Russians an even more impressive—and lethal—capability.

For some reason they put rendering of Kinzhal above the piece, but in general conclusion is correct, despite the fact that 3M22 Zircon's speed is rumored to be more than M=9 and new generation of such weapons will fly even faster and further than already astonishing range of 1,500 kilometers.

The Zircon has already upset the precarious balance of military power between the United States and Russia. The growth of this system, while the Americans find it difficult to field its own similar system or to create countermeasures against hypersonic weapons, risks ensuring that the Russians enjoy the dominant position. Unless America finds a countermeasure or its own hypersonic weapons, that balance of power with Russia will forever tilt in Moscow’s favor. 

It was always about the balance of power and the myopia of NATO's procurement based on obsolete technological and, hence, tactical and operational views. What is most important, however, in all of this is relentless work by Soviet Union and Russia in developing a reliable and survivable system of both surface and space-based recon and targeting allowing for reliable targeting globally. By 1980s USSR had such a system--MKRC Legenda. Today it is Liana. Here, you can access a superb two-part article (by professionals, no less-Ph.Ds engineers) in Arsenal Otechestva (Arsenal of Fatherland) titled: The Concept of Perfecting of the System of Naval Space Recon and Targeting (in Russian). Part 1 and Part 2. On photo is a good ol' Korall-B from Oscar-II (pr. 949A) SSGNs. 

What they describe already exists and now expands. Plus, modern recon is much more than space-based systems--it is also and even primarily so a sensor (data) fusion across all types of heterogeneous sensors, which provides a reliable resolution of uncertainties. 

Meanwhile, Kiev had a night party today and rocked throughout the night:

At the very end you can see the arrival of either Kinzhal or Iskander and that gives you some idea about why the US has neither real hypersonic weapon nor, what is even more important, any means of intercepting it. Trump was "dissatisfied" with massive strikes by Russia. Well, what can I say ... too fucking bad. 

3M22 Zircon Is Officially Accepted For Service.

 For surface ships as standard weapon system. TASS reports:

МОСКВА, 13 января. /ТАСС/. Госкомиссия по итогам государственных испытаний рекомендовала принять гиперзвуковую крылатую ракету "Циркон" на вооружение надводных кораблей Военно-морского флота (ВМФ) России. Об этом ТАСС сообщил источник, близкий к военному ведомству."Госкомиссия по итогам государственных испытаний гиперзвуковой ракеты "Циркон" с надводного носителя рекомендовала принять ее на вооружение надводных кораблей ВМФ России", - сказал он.По данным собеседника агентства, испытания "Циркона" с подводного носителя после двух выполненных осенью 2021 года успешных пусков должны продолжиться в 2024 году.

Translation:  MOSCOW, January 13. / TASS /. Based on the results of state tests, the State Commission recommended that the Zircon hypersonic cruise missile be deployed on surface ships of the Russian Navy. This was reported to TASS by a source close to the military department. "Based on the results of state tests of the Zircon hypersonic missile from a surface carrier, the State Commission recommended that it be adopted by surface ships of the Russian Navy," he said. According to the interlocutor of the agency, tests of Zircon from an underwater carrier after two successful launches performed in the fall of 2021 should continue in 2024.

At this stage the carriers of Zirkon are FFGs pr. 22350 (Admiral Gorshkov-class), pr. 20385 Corvettes and modernized pr. 1155 FFGs, Udaloy-class (see Marshal Shaposhnikov). All in all we can see already at least 5 Zircon carriers afloat in Russia's surface fleet with the number growing to 11 by mid 2020s, which, by that time submarine carriers of Zircon also adding to the number of carriers. Welcome to the new era of the naval warfare. I assume that some of the Karakurts (pr. 22800) and pr. 21631 Buyan class will also be able to carry Zircon or its "smaller" 500 kilometer range version Zircon Llite. And, of course, once completed, Admiral Nakhimov nuclear battlecruiser will carry a shitload of Zircons. We can only guess how many, since among 174 VLS on Nakhimov, 80 will be loaded with anti-surface missiles. Now, we expect new Vladimir Putin's address to Federal Assembly fairly soon (it was expected, quoting Peskov, "early in 2022"), so will see what other things Putin will be talking about. That gives a new meaning to Russia demanding the US to either accept or decline officially the terms of Russia's security arrangement. Introduction of Zircon into service also means, most likely, that land-based version is either ready or is nearing a completion. Not that Russia doesn't have other means to make NATO feel very nervous. New M=12+ and 1500 kilometer range 3M22M for surface combatants is most likely not far away either.

"Experts".

Kyle Mizokami, who "blessed" many of us at some point of time with his "expert" opinions while writing for tabloid The National Interest, does it again. This time in Popular Mechanics. He, obviously, doesn't get, which is expected from the guy with some funny background in some "security", that the main issue are not some "hyper-sonic" weapons related to a rather bizarre concept of Prompt Global Strike but a completely different fruit altogether.

As the Union of Concerned Scientists points out, hypersonic weapons traveling at Mach 5-plus experience a whole new level of heat buildup. While a ballistic missile warhead might spend only seconds exposed to air friction, hypersonic weapons experience air friction throughout their entire flight. Chemical reactions with the surrounding air even create a plasma around the hypersonic weapon, which can interfere with the object’s ability to reference GPS or receive outside course correction commands. That’s not all. Hypersonic travel is so brutal that an object traveling at such speeds slowly tears itself apart during flight as the speed magnifies heat, wind, and other environmental factors. This gradually alters a hypersonic weapon’s flight dynamics, making accuracy an increasingly difficult problem.

Based on that triviality, he concludes, that hypersonic weapons "are not accurate". There is one issue, though, with this whole "expert" opinion--not only those hypersonic weapons are very accurate and have confirmed their accuracy, but are already deployed on a combat duty. So, what's the problem then? The problem is that Mizokami writes about hypersonic gliders which in Russia are known as fully combat ready Avangard system and which the United States tried to create (still tries) under different programs. The fact that, as is now traditional, Mizokami has no idea what he is writing about is mentioning of GPS. Sure. But Mizokami, he is an "expert" after all, must know that both in ballistics and hypersonic weapons (call it a hunch) one of the main correction channels is optronic one, including, but not limited to, capability to get celestial correction, as well as final capture (lock) of the target. But even this is not the main point. The main point is THIS:

WASHINGTON — In a move with sweeping consequences for the U.S. Navy’s battle force, the service is canceling plans to add 10 years to the expected service lives of its stalwart destroyer fleet, a cost-savings measure that would almost certainly hamper plans to grow the size of the fleet. In written testimony submitted to the Senate Armed Services Committee, the Navy’s Assistant Secretary for Research, Development and Acquisition James Geurts said performing service life extensions on Burkes designed to bring them up from 35-year hull lives to 45 years was not cost-effective.

One may ask a question--WHY? It is a good question and part of the answer to this question is undeniably fiscal. The United States realistically is bankrupt, while its technology, even a good one as those handsome Arleigh Burke-class DDGs, is insanely expensive. This is to put it politely. But the other huge part of the answer is in this passage:

Bryan Clark, a retired submarine officer and senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, said the cuts were a necessary step. Clark recently authored a study with the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments that called for canceling the DDG service life extensions. “It’s crazy to throw good money after bad for a bunch of ships you say you don’t need,” Clark said. “I think the Navy is coming to grips with the fiscal realities; the unsustainable nature of their current plan; and the recognition it is going to have a need for fewer large surface combatants in the future and needs to husband its resources to build a larger fleet of smaller surface combatants. Those are going to be the bulk of the distributed force they intend to have.”

Ah, that is much-much warmer. The reason for that is a simple fact that large and expensive surface combatants are not survivable in the modern naval combat, unless they have weapon systems which can fight REAL hypersonic weapons such as fully combat ready and deployed Kinzhal, 3M22 Zircon or even nearing M=5 X-32 anti-shipping missiles. That is the real hypersonic threat, not those exotic Avangard gliders which merely exist to forestall the appearance in the future of similar systems in the United States and, if it ever materializes (I doubt it, but who knows) some sort of strategic anti-missile system. Unlike Avangard, which is a nuclear deterrent, another one in Russia's arsenal, Kinzhal, X-32 and Zircon are actual weapons designed specifically to fulfill a classic Sea Denial (or, if one wants an exercise in Pentagonese from me--Battle Space Denial) in both conventional or nuclear variants. They, not the Avangard, are the weapons which, being tactical-operational ones, achieved already a strategic and even doctrinal effect and these weapons are extremely precise. United States knows that. Liana, as Shoigu reported recently, namely last Peon NKS is nearing completion (in Russian), that's what is going to complete creation of Liana, which will (already does) provide detection, tracking and targeting for hypersonic and supersonic weapons against any targets.  

Same way as creation of modern rifles and machine guns forced infantry to abandon linear tactics and reduce its battlefield "footprint" by spreading (distributing) itself over distance, inevitably same distribution over area, including reduction in size and, inevitably, tightest control of emissions is one of the ways for surface combatants to increase their chances of survival against weapons which cannot be stopped and will not be stopped for some fairly long time by the US Navy. This is why, the United States lacking those capabilities, is destroying START treaty by demanding to include in it such weapon as Kinzhal. US also increasingly nuclearizes its own posture precisely because it lacks those conventional capabilities. Russia was ready to talk about Avangard and even offered a "discussion" on Kinzhal, but all those "discussions" today come with many strings attached and price to be paid, and Russia, certainly, is not discussing Zircon.  The United States is not ready to pay this price. This is the point Mizokami misses when discussing hypersonic gliders, which are not even that important against the background of a real RMA which completely changed power balance globally. 

In related news, it will be Severodvinsk, not Kazan, which was initially planned, to launch Zircon soon (in Russian), while Admiral Gorshkov will continue testing of this weapon this year. Several launches are announced. Zirconization of the Russian Navy proceeds apace. Well, that, plus global de-petrodollarization. We are at the threshold of the brave new world, or should I say: Brave New World? No, not Huxley's novel, but Iron Maiden's album, wink-wink;) Judging by modern day "experts" this future seems assured for us and it will require a lot of bravery to face it. 

Severodvinsk

Almost Anti-Climactic.

We all remember that after the coup in Kiev and Crimea's return home in 2014, Russia, due to sanctions from EU, US, Ukraine--you name it--was cut off the Ukrainian (in reality Soviet) source of some crucial machinery. Nowhere more this cut off was evident than in propulsion plants for Russian Navy's ships (situation was somewhat similar but less dire with helicopter engines). I recall vividly what a case of schadenfreude Ukrainian side had, understanding that at that time introduction of new ships for Russian Navy was dependent heavily on Ukrainian "Zorya-Mashproekt" from the city of Nikolaev. That, plus proverbial MTU's diesel engines. Well, not anymore. You may see some photos from legendary Saturn here (in Russian).  If that wasn't bad (or good--all depends on POV) enough, Kazan Aviation Plant completely restored its unique (largest in the world) electronic-ray welding facility for titanium structures of.... TU-160s. 

Yes, Putin visited Saturn and did all what is required from the head of state--speech, appearance etc.--but for people in the know massive strategic (in fact, global) ramifications of these two events can not fail to make an impression. Saturn already stated that first production run turbines for ships will be produced by the end of this year and it does not merely translate in pretty much steep decline in Ukrainian turbine manufacturer's fortunes--that was clear from the get go--but it is a clear signal to China that Russia has more than enough resources to not remain dependent on Chinese products even as a stop-gap measure. Diesel engines will follow. For globalists these are horrible news--by 2020 Russian surface fleet of the remote sea zone will start growing and with respectable number of project 22350 frigates, capable of carrying 3M22 Zircon this spells some exciting time in Mediterranean. Add here a new modification (in reality a complete new plane) of TU-160M2 with new missiles and one has one hell of a conventional deterrent with global reach. As I stated not for once--operational implications of that are enormous. There is a very old Russian proverb--Gol' na vydumki hitra (literally: paupers are very inventive) and while Russians are generally inventive, they are also not a paupers anymore. Not as virtually rich (due to printing press) as Americans or some Europeans but not paupers and we are yet to see some good old Soviet views to transform into extremely advanced technological and operational concepts. Strategic, generational bet on high speed, smart stand-off missile weapons begins to pay off. 

     

Hyper-sonic Brahmos