Thursday, August 31, 2023

LOL, Again.

 You cannot teach morons. Here is the headline:

Russian hardliners are fuming that the Kremlin wasn't able to stop a string of embarrassing attacks on home soil

OK, I thought to myself, and who those "hardliners" are? I started reading further and lo and behold:

Russia's nationalists are fuming over a slew of attacks on Russian territory which exposed gaps in its defenses and put it on the back foot in its invasion of Ukraine. The hardliners criticized Russia's leaders for what they called their failure to protect the country. They also accused them of covering up the extent of new attacks hitting Russia. The blowback was picked up by the respected Institute for the Study of War think tank, which described it in an update on Wednesday. The ISW wrote that "Russian propagandists and milbloggers criticized Russian forces for their inability to defend Russian territory and military facilities, while simultaneously criticizing recent Russian MoD censorship efforts." It highlighted Telegram posts by popular media figures in Russia. The prominent anonymous blogger Rybar said a recent strike on Russia's Pskov airfield suggests Russia's air defenses haven't adapted to stop drone strikes. It criticized authorities for not protecting the valuable aircraft there with hangars, and compared their defenses unfavorably to those in Russian-occupied Crimea, closer to the fighter.

LOL, Rybar IS NOT "respected" blogger, neither is ISW which is a military joke.  Rybar is Michail Zvinchuk (in Russian) who worked in the press-service of Russian MoD a few years back and who made up most of his military interpreter biography. The boy whose military "education" is linguistics wouldn't know shit from shinola in anything operations related, or military in general, and the fact that he has many subscribers (a bulk of them from 404 and Russian miltech masturbators) means only one thing--real operations and strategy are hard, as are physics and tactics of complex defense systems which Zvinchuk never studied and nobody would give this loser any clearance to be near any serious weapon system. 

SOB, obviously, shadows this blog, but he would never dare to stand to real cadre officers with decades of serious military academic and combat experience because they will tear this ignoramus a new one. I could easily do this, but he will not oblige because he knows he would have floor wiped with him. I would love to see my friend Volodya Trukhan (BTW, Air Defense officer) beating the shit, figuratively speaking, out of this creep, especially with Vladimir using his very rich verbiage of Russian profanities. I have other connections too, as you might expect, but good luck trying to pull this ass-hole under the light and parading him an amateur that he is. There is no surprise, then, that ISW references this shyster. But, desperate times--desperate measures. 

P.S. There is a persistent "rumor", let's call it this way, circulating in Russia that this Zvinchuk is NOT "Russian" hardliner but an asset. Whose? I don't know. Certainly, not Russian, but let professionals in this field deal with that. 

Wednesday, August 30, 2023

Larry On US Generals.

I laughed when Stephen Gardner said that David Petraeus is "a good general". 

Excellent summary by Larry.

On A Lighter Note. Or On The Utility of Trans-Atlantic Flights.

LOL)) Sir David Attenborough is a cuck. Being a biologist and media personality his "expertise" in "anthropogenic climate change" is as valuable as my expertise in open heart surgery, but he is a celebrity. A British one. Here is AI, or whatever passes today for this AI thingy (a fad really, such as Tesla cars) which mimics his comments on Disney)))

But, remarkably, while flying back to Seattle I was lucky enough to watch an absolutely charming British movie The Duke. This was the parting gift from Roger Mitchell and it struck the chord. Of course it is somewhat moralizing but it is warm, very human and very... British. Jim Broadbent and Helen Mirren are incomparable.
There was something in it we as kids imagined about England, which, of course, is not there anymore. It felt almost Dickensian or Jerome-Jeromeish  if not early Benny Hillish. It felt wonderful, because it told the story which was... real and it showed normal people with calling to be just humans. I almost applauded when the movie ended at 40,000 feet (yes, Finnair takes a higher echelon to avoid turbulence, A 330-300 has a ceiling of 41,100 feet) waking my wife who uses me as a pillow on long flights. It felt so right, almost the blast from the past. I highly recommend... literally from 40,000 feet.

How To Find Out.

I do not disagree with Tucker and PJW on the possibility of a hot war with Russia by Biden's regime in order to stay in power. I also agree on the uniparty thesis. 

But here is the fallacy in terms of practical implementation of this "plan" by cabal. Remarkably I already quoted this today. Even illiterate hack such as late Richard Pipes got it:

It goes without saying that unlike late 1970s when Pipes wrote his BS piece, today the US has no industry capable of wartime footing while conventional war with Russia will see American losses the likes it never experienced in her history. I am talking, of course, not about SMO format, I am talking about the real war. And here lies practical problem for implementation of the dictatorship by Washington. US Army cannot sustain about 5-10 thousand KIAs s week, neither can American society. And I am talking about lower end of estimates. Colonel Wilkerson talks about 40,000 US casualties in such a war in the first week of hostilities. 

US as a nation is not set up for fighting a real combined arms war. NO Washington regime will be able to sustain about 100 to 200 thousand US Army KIAs and about the same number of sanitary losses in the first couple of months of fighting, not to mention a bulk of the USAF and ground forces hardware being annihilated. 

But for dictatorship to endure one has to have a solid war achievements, otherwise you get the repetition of General Galtieri and the collapse of Junta. And I am not even talking about such horrible and very highly likely events (God forbid) as sinking of couple of US Navy's CBGs. And that is going to happen in case of such a war. Not to mention the fact that US proper is defenseless against Russian cruise missiles. US, in this case, will have no choice but to escalate to nuclear threshold and that means that no US neocon and their family survives. Same goes to those American "patriots" who would exercise their desire to kill them some Rooskies. I am on record--US population has zero knowledge of real war. 

If we all avoid a nuclear confrontation which the US will initiate when the first thousands of KIAs begin to arrive to the US within first few weeks, US has no resources to fight such a war and that means that even if Biden and his puppeteers succeed in starting such a war with Russia (with what?) and usurp power, this coup wouldn't be able to last for too long. In the end, consider this news from two weeks ago:

The head of a top Russian shipbuilder revealed Monday that work is underway to arm some of Russia's most troubling guided-missile submarines with Zircon hypersonic weapons. Following the fielding of the weapon aboard a Russian navy frigate, "multi-purpose nuclear submarines of the Yasen-M project will also be equipped with the Zircon missile system," Alexei Rakhmanov, general director of the United Shipbuilding Corporation, told the state-run RIA news agency, confirming certain long-standing expectations. He added that "work in this direction is already underway." Russia's Yasen-class nuclear-powered cruise-missile submarines are quiet, difficult to track, heavily armed, and able to conduct attacks against land- and sea-based targets. The first sub of the class, the Severodvinsk, was commissioned late in 2013 following decades of design, development, and construction that started during the Cold War.

So, in case of such a war even Junta will have tough time explaining to American people what happened to the White House and Capitol among many other crucial US buildings (Pentagon anyone) in a sense where did they go once 3M22 will arrive in salvos and then 3M14M and X-101 follow. Yes, it will be a very tough political time, but something tells me that, while possible, such a war will actually end the uniparty, not least through many of its members being physically annihilated, and what happens next--who knows. I don't think that overwhelming majority of Americans, even if brainwashed by propaganda, would like to live without electricity, heat, AC, water and with food shortages. But that IS what conventional war with Russia will mean for the US. Russia can turn US grid and power generation off if she will decide to do so and, certainly, this is a contingency most in Washington cannot wrap their brains around. As I say--they have no tool kit for that. Simple as that. I hope they wouldn't want to find out, most of them are cowards and spoiled wussies who would run like cowards do once the real deal begins. So, how does repetition of Vietnam times 100 looks like?   


For those who still don't get it and do not want to see the reality of SMO. This is Torfyanovka border crossing facility at Russian-Finnish border. 

We crossed it twice--once on the way to St. Petersburg from Helsinki, once--other way around. There are busses between St. Petersburg and Helsinki. Nice, comfortable (with the toilet) busses. Every single vehicle stops both on Finnish and Russian check points, people disembark and go through customs and passport control. In Russia it is run, naturally, by Border Guards of FSB RF. Checks are thorough. And here is this illustration: once we all disembarked on Russian side (for entry) we, as American citizens, have been singled out (the only people from G-7 on the bus) and pushed ahead of everybody in the line. It was expected and FSB spoke to us for about 20 minutes while everyone was getting checked. After that and thorough check of our phones we have been let go.

And here is illustration: the only other non-Russian citizen persons who have been pushed even ahead of us have been a young mother and her son of about 10 years. Both had Ukrainian passports. Well, guess what--after 15-20 minutes of questioning they have been led inside service facilities and, as a result, they have been taken from the bus. Why, you may ask. Well, the explanation is filthy simple--under this "brotherly people" BS premise Russia, together with millions of genuinely displaced people allowed into the country a huge number of Ukies who hate Russian guts and continue their both passive and active "resistance"--a euphemism for sabotage and terrorism--against Russia. FSB has its hands full with detecting and eliminating a huge number of sleeper cells run by SBU and GUR under control of MI6, CIA and others on Russian territory and this involves, and you have guessed it by now, a large number of mid to short range drone operators who constantly try, and sometimes succeed, to attack Russia's infrastructure. 

Many people still cannot wrap their brains around the fact that Russia's European part ALONE--the territory where 80% of Russians live and work--is almost 4 million square kilometers or 1.5+ million square miles. To give a proper comparison--it is almost the area of a whole European Union. So, make your own conclusion what it means to control such a territory (including newly added administrative subjects of 404)--even the best ISR means (and Russia DOES have best ISR means) do not guarantee detecting a group of saboteurs who can move into the launch area with hidden prepositioned or simply carried 10-12 drones and launch them at any target. Even modified 45 minutes endurance commercial drone with about 0.5 kilo of explosives attached to it gives you a range of about 40-50 kilometers. Let's recall middle school geometry: A=3.14 x 50^2 = 3.14 x 2,500= 7,853 square kilometers one must search and detect.  

If we re talking about drones with the range of 100 kilometers it gives you, consequently, the area of 31,400 square kilometers to control and search and here we are talking about equivalent of the territory of... Belgium. So, good luck opening the Theory of Search, together with the Theory of Probability, Statistics and the math and physics of modern ISR means and there you go--you may finally understand that technology alone is NOT enough, especially in the country covered with forests. One MUST have a superb human intel on the ground and the network of informants. In case of Russia we are talking about thousands upon thousands possible and highly probable Ukie saboteurs who are... drum roll--Russian citizens. Russia IS NOT going to do American Japanese "thingy" of 1940s. 

And now that you know these very simple facts you may appreciate the issue of Operational Sweeps, Probability Density Maps, sensor fusion and human intel, among many other things, which may help to understand the scale and the scope Russia's military-intel community faces in mitigating 404 (NATO's, really) threats. THERE WILL BE leakers, the sabotage will continue such as attacks on Pskov or Moscow, or Rostov-on-Don et al, and some will get lucky--it is inevitable in case of the scale of the events unfolding in a front of our eyes. It is simple as that. And that is why this Ukrainian woman and her son have been taken off the bus and have been led for thorough check. We learned later that after the checks have been completed she and her (now identified and confirmed) son have been put on the next bus to Russia. 

Meanwhile, one of the last remaining European statesmen, Viktor Orban notes what I am writing about for many years now:

The administration of US President Joe Biden “misunderstands” Russians if it expects economic sanctions and frontline losses to erode support for President Vladimir Putin, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has claimed. The focus of Western politics is on “how to provide more freedom to the people,” while for Russians the top priority is national unity, Orban told US journalist Tucker Carlson in an interview published on X (formerly Twitter) on Wednesday. “This creates a kind of military approach [by Russia]… always on security, safety, buffer zone, geopolitical approaches,” the Hungarian prime minister explained, arguing that this attitude was “legitimate” considering Russia’s history. “They misunderstand the Russians,” Orban said of the US leadership. “It is a difficult thing, especially when you have an ocean between you and Russia.”

As I am on record ad nauseam--people who run US degree mills for the "elite", they have no tool kit for grasping what it means being on the grounds of this, now beloved by Russians, cathedral:

And why the names of Alexander Nevsky, Mikhail Kutuzov and Zhukov with Rokossovsky, among many others, present today the unbreakable stream of Russia's 1,000 + years long history and why when you pass on the highway by Lakhta Center you see this grandiose sight:

And that is why the feeling of a calm confidence is palpable in Russia. Something clicked in such a way in Russia that US decision makers simply cannot understand. This is what Tolstoy called a "latent warmth of patriotism" among Russian Army personnel on the eve of Borodino Battle. So, one or two "successful" attacks by Kiev criminals change absolutely nothing and they know it. I warned long time ago that Russians are wrong people to fuck with but they never listen.

Monday, August 28, 2023

Back Home...

 ... after 9 hour flight. Tired but happy. Use as open thread.

From Soggy Helsinki.

Waiting to board our plane in hotel. Evidently Finnish hotels are designed and built with people of 100 pounds' weight and the height of 4'5" in mind. I, as you may expect, am neither. So, after Moscow and St.Petersburg Helsinki looks rather... timid. But I am happy to leave for calmer and smaller (in urban sense) pastures. Metropolis living is not for me. Especially such monsters as Moscow and St. Petersburg. Now to our goats, so to speak. 

The butcher's bill for 404 grows, it is simply now a daily summary of Ukie bodies and looking at militarily illiterate psychos in Biden's Admin dreaming to "mobilize" whatever is left of 404 male, primarily 16-17 year old kids and 60+ people, yes, this is how they think. As I already stated--I was stunned by military illiteracy of not only political class in the West, but by NATO military top brass. Everything what is known about wars of the XX century and modern and future wars has been lost on them. It is surreal to observe people who pontificate non-stop on "multi-domain operations" while they do not know basic facts--forget math and physics of war--about WW II and modern (and future) weapon systems. This, not some PR BS matters in serious practical geopolitics. 

When they try to portray the "battle for Rabotino"--a hamlet with pre-war "population" of a whopping 480 people--and which doesn't exist physically anymore--as some kind of "battle", it is difficult to explain to them that the piece of land which used to be Rabotino is "defended" by a few SSO who sit there and guide Russian artillery at VSU forces each-time they try to "enter" this pile of rubble--a classic "fire sack". This is ooh the "tactics" any Soviet kid knew in 5-6th grade. But then again, when one's Field Manuals and Doctrines are written for beating the crap from generally defenseless people what do you expect? Right, Zapp Brannigan's way of military thinking. 

This all is so surreal that one begins to ask the question if they really teach anything real war related in NATO military "academies". That brings us to the issue of cadre officers. This topic needs a separate and in depth treatment. Larch sent me a recent piece by Andrei Ilnitsky (yes, in many photos he does look like Kevin Costner) and here is what this graduate of the Academy of General Staff wrote in his piece titled Induced Degradation of the World (in Russian):

Доминировавший долгие годы тезис о том, что в управлении страной должны быть интеллектуалы-технократы, — неточен, а в нынешних условиях цивилизационного противостояния с Западом — вреден. России нужны профессионалы с четким ценностным профилем служения Отечеству.

Translation: The thesis that dominated for many years that technocratic intellectuals should be in charge of the country is inaccurate, and in the current conditions of civilizational confrontation with the West is harmful. Russia needs professionals with a clear value profile of serving the Fatherland.

I may not agree with the entirety of otherwise good piece, but this is spot on. Remarkably, this also applies to combined West if it wants to survive. Without it--it is over. For Europe it already happened, for the US a slim chance remains. Remarkably, Larry touches on one of the major aspects of the issue--MSM. 

We are now in an era where I believe that the mainstream media, especially TV and Cable, are largely irrelevant. Yet the tradition of using those platforms is still firmly embedded in the establishment mentality. Politicians raise tons of money, or try to, just to buy time on conventional TV and Cable that a diminishing number of people are watching. The action has shifted to podcasts, X and other social media platforms. That is what the vast majority of Americans are watching. Most politicians do not understand nor comprehend the shift that has taken place. There are exceptions. Barack Obama picked up on it early. Donald Trump is the king of social media. And Vivek Ramaswamy gets in. The rest are still welded to the legacy media and foolishly spend money on TV ads that people skip if they can.

In the end, the blame game started by the US MSM about VSU "not following Pentagon advice" is a kindergarten ploy to shift the blame for a catastrophe for NATO towards VSU generals who do NOT in effect have real operational control over what remains of VSU and are fully subservient to the will of Washington. I guess Nuland and Sullivan need some basic military education, forget about Operations--too complex for them, a lot of math and history. So, here we are today. The admission by one of the West's generals recently about effectiveness of Russian Air Defense of 92-98%, in terms of combat aircraft it is 100% (in Russian) sends shivers down the spine of NATO pilots. And this is even before they encounter Russian Air Force which is world class. Just basic facts. I guess those "backward" Soviets knew their craft when creating the most advanced and networked air defense in the world and made a bet on the industrial might of the nation. Should I quote Lieutenant-General Klokotov again? I guess not. Too much to unpack, especially before flying back home. And I really miss my Pacific Northwest, its magnificent mountains and ocean.

Friday, August 25, 2023


Two military "geniuses" conclude in WaPo:

The rapid Ukrainian breakthrough and advance that many hoped for has not occurred. Media coverage has grown gloomier in recent weeks on the back of fragmentary journalistic accounts from the front and reported intelligence assessments from Western analysts. The news has not been great. The fight against Russia has proved to be bloody and slow — a very hard slog. But observers would be wise to temper their pessimism. War does not proceed in a linear fashion. Defenders can hold for a long time and then suddenly break, allowing an attacker to make rapid gains before the defense solidifies further to the rear. The Ukrainians aim to generate exactly this effect — and there is reason to think they can. Ukraine’s offensive push is far from over. In fact, it is still in the early stages — just 10 weeks into what is likely to last at least four more months.

It is highly advisable for both Kagan and Petraeus to take a basic course in real military history and operations--yes, with calculations of required forces and combat effectiveness--and maybe then they will understand what real war is. But don't hold your breath. Utter military illiteracy of the US top brass has been exposed and it is downright horrifying. The article in WaPo is an exhibit A of two amateurs butt-hurting from professional envy and jealousy when seeing how real wars are prosecuted by professionals and Russia defeating NATO. I think Kagan and Petraeus better concentrate on video game-playing.

Greece Makes The Choice.

Regarding Russian-made Tor-M1 and Osa-AKM air defense complexes.

АФИНЫ, 25 авг — РИА Новости. Греция расторгнет контракт с Россией на техническое обслуживание зенитных ракетных комплексов "Тор-М1" и "Оса-АКМ", пишет портал "Конец эпохи российских систем вооружения в греческих вооруженных силах — правительство приняло решение отказаться от программы поддержки вооружений и не подписывать новые контракты на поддержку (FOS). В сверхсекретном документе, просочившемся через парламент, министр национальной обороны Никос Дендиас объявляет, что новых контрактов на поддержку, то есть закупку запасных частей и услуг, мобильных зенитных ракетных комплексов малой дальности "Тор-М1" и более старых "Оса-АКМ" не будет", — говорится в публикации.
Translation: ATHENS, August 25 - RIA Novosti. Greece will terminate the contract with Russia for the maintenance of anti-aircraft missile systems "Tor-M1" and "Osa-AKM", writes the portal "The end of the era of Russian weapons systems in the Greek armed forces - the government has decided to abandon the weapons support program and not sign new support contracts (FOS). In a top-secret document leaked through parliament, the Minister of National Defense Nikos Dendias announces that new support contracts , that is, there will be no purchase of spare parts and services, mobile short-range anti-aircraft missile systems Tor-M1 and older Osa-AKM," the publication says.
There is absolutely nothing surprising about it and clearing the air defense market of Greece for US/British SHORAD is in progress. It is also a part of the knee jerk reaction to immensely important BRICS expansion and the death sentence to Petrodollar. Sad, but expected--Greece is a part of "modern" West, or whatever passes for it nowadays, and NATO cannot tolerate Russian weapon systems, even not the latest ones, which performed brilliantly in SMO. I guess it is mental and emotional thing for NATO.

Some Photos.

It is difficult to describe the scale of the Main Cathedral of the Armed Forces of Russia. The complex is gigantic. 

It is a very powerful place. And it is astonishingly beautiful.
The connection between dozens of generations of Russia's warriors is everywhere.

Visiting this Cathedral was among my two main reasons for traveling to Russia. The rest was secondary (with the exception of shoes and 100% cotton socks).

Thursday, August 24, 2023

Now To Real News...

... instead of discussing the demise of a petty criminal and his enablers who thought themselves new Bismarck and Suvorov. 

Well, that's the news, big one. No, it is not the "challenge" to G7 which is in decline and dissolution, it is this proverbial New World Order but not the way it was conceived in Davos. New international institutions, as well as resurrection of UN Charter without corrupt UN, will follow. Adding Iran and SA is a wowser and it solidifies the BRICS hold on energy. 

Meanwhile, in UK. 

No, no, no--the message in UK (and EU) is clear: white European stock people need not apply. Natives, at best, will become just another minority among others and they should be thankful for that. I am on record--EU is done. In the end, Brits tolerated the rape of their girls by Pakistani gangs and their police was on it for decades. Karma is a bitch--you either die standing or you surrender on the knees. You know what Europe chose.

Wednesday, August 23, 2023

Keep In Mind.

 When speaking about Prigozhin's death. Two facts:

1. Wagner's "effectiveness" was primarily a figment of imagination and PR by... Prigozhin bought media. Wagner losses, especially among former prisoners of law, have been appalling. 

2. Bakhmut affair which was in effect a PR move by Wagner and their "council of commanders" which completely fucked up Russia's MoD plans and forced it to support Wagner. 

Now, ask yourself a question, especially against the fact of Prigozhin and Wagner being in fact a totalitarian sect, which also started the mutiny--how much longer could this org be allowed to exist in any state, AND how many people had some serious accounts to settle with Prigozhin and his military enablers from this "council". 

Recon-Strike Complex.

But first, heartfelt congratulations to India with her magnificent achievement.

Truly a proud moment for this nation.  

Now to our sad and earthly matters. I deliberately posted 2 days ago the conversation between Colonel Macgregor and Tucker. First 15-20 minutes of Colonel's remarks are crucial. First, he correctly points out to a horrendous heat signature of all versions of Abrams tanks--Russian satellites can even see them from space--and then he elaborates on modern Russian Recon-Strike Complex without naming it such. In Russian it is known as Разведывательно-Ударный Комплекс (РУК) or, well--Reconnaissance Strike Complex. As Russian military (MoD) defines it:

автоматизированный комплекс вооружения, предназначенный для огневого поражения ударным средствами (ракетными, авиационными) наиболее важных наземных и надводных целей противника немедленно по мере их обнаружения. В РУК входят средства: разведки и наведения, поражения (высокоточное оружие), радиоэлектронного подавления, навигационно-временного обеспечения, управления. В отечественном РУК 60-х гг., предназначавшемся для поражения группировок НК, объединялись информационно-техническими связями ПЛ с противокорабельными ракетными комплексами большой дальности самолёт-разведчик с радиолокационной аппаратурой обнаружения и целеуказания. В последующих поколениях РУК этого вида объединены носители средств поражения (НК и ПЛ) с системой морской космической разведки и целеуказания, которая постоянно ведёт разведку надводной обстановки на акваториях Мирового океана. В США создан РУК ПЛСС (1986) для поражения радиолокационных объектов в полосе шириной и глубиной до 500 км. В его состав входят: 10 самолётов разведки и ретрансляции (дежурная смена - 3 самолёта); наземный центр управления; 12 пунктов наземной радионавигационной сети; до 100 комплексов бортового оборудования для ударных са-молётов и до 500 - для управляемого оружия "воздух - земля" и "земля - земля".

Translation: an automated complex of weapon systems designed to strike the most important enemy ground and surface targets immediately as they are detected by strike means (missile, aviation). The RUK includes the means of: reconnaissance and guidance, destruction (high-precision weapons), electronic suppression, navigation and time support, and control. In the domestic RUK of the 60s, intended to defeat surface ships groupings, submarines were combined with information and technical communications with long-range anti-ship missile systems, reconnaissance aircraft with radar detection and target designation equipment. In subsequent generations of RUKs of this type, carriers of weapons of destruction (Surface Ships and Subs) are combined with a system of marine space reconnaissance and target designation, which constantly conducts reconnaissance of the surface situation in the waters of the World Ocean. In the United States, the RUK PLSS (1986) was created to destroy radar targets in a band up to 500 km wide and deep. It consists of: 10 reconnaissance and relay aircraft (duty shift - 3 aircraft); ground control center; 12 points of the ground radio navigation network; up to 100 sets of on-board equipment for attack aircraft and up to 500 for air-to-ground and ground-to-ground guided weapons.

Of course, this is a very general definition, and for ground warfare Russians use Recon-Fire Complex (ROK) term. The US uses pretty much similar definition and developed its own battlefield ROK such as initial Assault Breaker, which now is being developed into Assault Breaker-2. Here is from 2019.

But here is where the similarity ends. Ever vigilant Lester Grau already in 2018 warned about the way Russians viewed their ROK. Here is how he pointed out Russian artillery use:

Russian military analysts conclude that artillery batteries from direct support artillery battalions and brigade artillery continue to play the most decisive role in the fire destruction of enemy. Further, the role of artillery in contemporary combined arms combat and armed conflicts of varying intensity will only grow. Analysis of limited wars (the Soviet war in Afghanistan, combat in Chechnya, the fighting in Syria) require that new-type artillery tactical formations be capable of:
conducting highly-maneuverable combat with motorized rifle (and tank) subunits, complete multi-kilometer combined road marches, conduct river crossings, etc;

inflicting fire destruction of enemy subunits (or targets) throughout the depths of his combat formation;

destroying enemy targets through direct and indirect fire;

annihilating tactical precision-guided munitions and other weapons as well as artillery from firing positions and from the march;

suppressing and destroying command posts and weapons, radar, electronic combat systems and air defense;

conducting timely and effective defeat of enemy personnel and their weaponry in assembly areas and fighting positions, tanks, command posts and engineer equipment during the preparation for an attack by motorized rifle (or tank) subunits, during
combat in the depth of the enemy defense, during the repulse of the enemy counterattack and during the conduct of the defense;

conducting counterbattery fire;

destroying enemy antitank weapons, tanks and other armored vehicles;

fighting effectively against the approaching enemy reserve and irregular armed elements;

dispersing within the brigade combat formation while preserving the ability to mass fire in time and space.v

Russian analysis and combat experience shows that the execution of fire destruction missions against an enemy should be assigned directly to the organic brigade artillery without establishing temporary formations such as artillery Further, in future fire engagements, artillery systems may be integrated into a unified reconnaissance-fire system (ROC) responsible for conducting zone and point reconnaissance and engaging the just-detected enemy in near-real time. The primary method of executing reconnaissance-fire missions will be to engage newly-discovered enemy targets with brief fire assaults and subsequent changes of position to avoid retaliatory fire. However, it may be possible to conduct multiple fire missions without shifting firing positions when engaged in support of low-intensity conflicts.

Here comes this critical difference which hasn't been known in 2018 yet and which SMO demonstrated so dramatically. It is not just about artillery, however important. Few in 2018 could have foreseen the situation that Russia will outproduce NATO combined in high precision stand-off weapons by the order of magnitude, will deploy an astonishing variety of those weapons, including hypersonic ones and, of course, will demonstrate what modern Air Defense and modern Air Force can do. 

Few also could have predicted that "work time" (rabotnoe vremya) which is the time between detection of the target and launch (salvo) will be reduced into the strategic and operational depth to minutes. Listen to Macgregor in those first 15-20 minutes. At the tactical depth, I quote my friend Marat Khairullin, even battalion commander can see 20-30 kilometers into the enemy depth almost in real time. Hence slaughter of the VSU. At the Rabotino area the kill ratio reaches astonishing 1 to 30. And then, of course, there is ECM and Russia operates drones which are simply impervious to NATO EC(C)M. Hence sheer idiocy from such "advisers" like Dan Rice, or from our beloved clown David Axe. How to explain politely to these (and other) guys that their Iraq and Afghanistan experiences are worthless in real war. 

Aw, poor-poor dears! They still think that changing "tactics" can change the outcome. Obviously, explaining to Dan Rice or David Axe what Soviet/Russian attitude towards own TOE, ISR and the role of cadre officers with very strong military education means may fall on deaf ears--they still continue to reside in their Gulf War delusion. But I can only help with quoting yet again Lieutenant-General Klokotov, Chief of the Strategy Department of the Academy of General Staff in 1992:

“I would like to emphasize here that the Persian Gulf war was taken as the standard in studying the strategic nature of possible war. It would appear that this position, adopted in the draft ‘Fundamentals of Russian Military Doctrine,’ is dangerous. The fact is that this war [was] ‘strange’ in all respects [and] cannot serve as a standard.  

They simply believed that they could match such experiences as ended today 80 years ago Kursk Battle. They cannot. That is why they rewrite history. And even that they do unprofessionally.

Reporting From Rainy Moscow.

My latest. 

Remarkably, even Statista gets relation right by highly unreliable GDP data.
I speak about it in my video. The last hi-tech trump card of the combined West is its commercial aerospace. Airbus and Boeing still remain massively important and relevant. Russia is capable of completely servicing her air-transport market by 2025-27. Will China? I doubt it, but we need to look at political dynamics in the increasingly wobbly West. The article with funny title (in Russian) from Ria: Russia Will Feed Germany, gives some insight. And NO, Russia will not feed Germany, or, rather, she will but only on her own conditions and those will be harsh.

Monday, August 21, 2023

Real Revolution In Military Affairs.

Colonel and Tucker.

Open Thread.

Go at it.

Another No Shit Moment.

 Generally speaking, Larry already summarized it very well:

So here is the billion dollar question — why did the West not encourage, hell, demand that Ukraine use Himars and Storm Shadow missiles to attack those defensive lines while they were being constructed? I believe the answer is simple — Ukraine lacked the offensive tools required for such a mission and, even if such supplies had been available, the odds are high that Russia could have thwarted those efforts. We are witnessing military malpractice by the West on a grand scale. Did the NATO planners really believe the propaganda nonsense that portrayed the Russian military as a decrepit, doddering army of incompetents? If so, the West is now learning a very hard lesson and now must come to grips with the fact that NATO’s delusional calculation that Ukraine could shatter the Russian military is a complete bust.

Read the whole thing at Larry's blog. Those were delusional calculations. Now WaPo serves as Captain Obvious:

Ukraine is running out of options in its counteroffensive against Russian forces, as Kiev’s time-window to gain advances is closing, the Washington Post has reported. In an article on Sunday, the U.S. daily has claimed that Ukraine’s counteroffensive, which was launched in early June and was initially expected to see Kiev taking back significant territory, currently “shows signs of stalling.” “Kiev’s advances remain isolated to a handful of villages, Russian troops are pushing forward in the north and a plan to train Ukrainian pilots on U.S.-made F-16s is delayed,” wrote the U.S. newspaper. Ukrainian and Western officials might be calling for patience but “the window of time for Ukraine to conduct offensive is limited” because of the “inhospitable weather” in the region in autumn and winter, wrote the article.

And here is the thing--there are neither "options" nor any "windows" left for 404. In fact, they never existed and the only thing which mattered and still matters is how Russia would prosecute the war strategically. That is why Ukie trolls and Western media continued to push this BS about "stunning successes" of VSU around Kharkov in 2022. Read my lips--not on a single occasion did VSU outfought Russian Army and forced it to retreat--each time Russian forces withdrew from any locality (Kharkov and Kherson) it was a strategic decision. Only after that did the VSU move in "liberated" localities. This was presented by illiterate journos and equally militarily illiterate majority of Western military "analysts" as "victories" for VSU, while in reality a completely different strategic  and operational logic guided SMO from the inception. 

We see the results of this logic today. Against massive ramping up of military production by Russia it becomes perfectly clear that from the start it was about conditioning NATO, not 404, for what is coming now and is shaping to be, quoting Clausewitz, compelling the West to do Russia's will. Keep in mind that there is also Syria, there is also Taiwan and other hot spots along the front lines of unprecedented conflict between renegade West and classic civilization spearheaded by Russia. Meanwhile, I remain convinced that Pentagon top brass should start learning REAL operations and REAL military history, not Hollywood BS they study in US military educational institutions and that will help them understand the gravity of their historic miscalculation. Mind you, allowed for historic adjustments modern US military is not even in the same league with Napoleon and Hitler's generals, even if Erich Von Manstein helped in shaping American doctrinal views. But then again, he did lose the war to his Russian peers. 

Gotta love Hollywood output in 1990s.

Saturday, August 19, 2023

The Yellowing Of RT.

Shoddy Journalism infection hit RT big time. They post sensationalist clickbait headline:

Ukraine conflict ‘could last for decades’ – Medvedev 

The problem is, of course, that Medvedev NEVER stated anything like this. Here is his TG channel:

Оно должно быть уничтожено дотла. Вернее так, чтобы даже пепла от него не осталось. Чтобы эта мерзость никогда, ни при каких условиях не могла возродиться. Если на это потребуются годы и даже десятилетия – так тому и быть. У нас нет выбора:

Translation: That (404) must be annihilated completely. That not even ashes remain. That filth should never resurrect under any conditions. If it will take years or even decades--so be it. We have no choice.

Obviously, RT didn't notice that Medvedev used "If" as in hypothetical scenario and that he merely indicated Russia's resolve. He never stated that conflict "could last years or decades". So, my suggestion--before RT complains about lowlife "journalism" from such sewers as CNN or BBC, they better clean their own house and stop posting tabloid sensationalist clickbait headlines and stick to real reporting.  As for the longevity of the "conflict"--there are people with qualifications and experiences beyond RT's understanding who will make sure that this conflict lasts as little time as possible. 

Speaking Of Operations Research.

Josep Borrell does have degree in it--Applied Mathematics from Stanford no less. But a collection of complex degrees still does not guarantee a moron from being a moron. Borrell is a moron and him repeating late nutjob John McCain's "truism" about Russia being a gas station shows what kind of human material is pushed to the top in EU.

I guess explaining to this Catalan cretin that Moscow and oblast combined alone have a larger economy than that of Spain will be the waste of time, but at least Russia has energy, right? This aeronautical "engineer" obviously never learned what modern extraction is and what amount of real hi-tech goes into it. But his quip is a combination of the EU required stupidity and frustration growing inside the ranks of EU's bureaucracy. No worry, Mr. Borrell--you, same as organization you represent, are America's lunch, so, keep parading yourself as the idiot you are--the only type fit for running EU (into the ground), others need not apply. Even if they have two degrees in Operational Research.

Define Win.

 LOL, didn't we hear this before, with Bill Clinton. 

On if Ukraine can win 

“That depends on what you mean by the word ‘win.’” 

I have news for Milley--"win" is achieving political objectives of the war. This is the ONLY definition. Key political objective of SMO for Russia is annihilation of 404 as NATO stooge and a removal of the Kiev regime and its sponsors. This is tantamount to annihilation of 404 as such and Russia is "brutally proficient" (quoting NYT, I believe) in achieving these objectives which imply annihilation of VSU. So, no amount of semantics can hide a clusterfuck at the top of military and political levels in the US. Only moron could believe Ukie "success" at Kharkov last year and only a graduate of Ivy League humanities program believes that territory as such means much in modern war. Accidentally, Russians simply withdrew from around Kharkov in 2022 because saw no military sense in expending resources on it. 

Now, Milley follows the path of many other US JCSs and military leaders who managed to lose every single war they ever fought, because they never, quoting Vladimir Lenin, "studied warfare in the most realistic way". And don't tell me that I didn't warn about it--I did. And here we are with this infamous Bill's request: "define what word "is" is." I, meanwhile, off to eating shawarma. Should be at Patriot Park on Tuesday. 

Wednesday, August 16, 2023

International Sports Is Dead.

Olympic "principles" are fiction and I spoke many times about International Olympic Committee being utterly corrupt. There is no better supporter of my long standing position than Mr. Putin himself.

«В результате политизации международных спортивных структур и дальнейшей коммерциализации международного олимпийского движения, к сожалению, там, мы видим, определенная деградация наступает… Это неизбежно просто повлечет за собой создание параллельных структур с сфере международного спорта», – приводит его слова ТАСС. Путин также добавил, что «нужно создавать достойные условия для наших атлетов, в том числе это касается и материального поощрения, это касается премий, грантов».

Translation: "As a result of the politicization of international sports structures and the further commercialization of the international Olympic movement, unfortunately, there, we see a certain degradation is coming ... This will inevitably simply entail the creation of parallel structures with the sphere of international sports. Putin also added that it is necessary to create decent conditions for our athletes, including this also concerns material incentives, this applies to premiums and grants.

Simple as that. It is about time.

Patrick Armstrong Wrote A Must Read.

I cannot emphasize enough the importance of this piece. 

One cannot understand the modern world without learning the REAL history of WW II and the sabotage by the West of the Soviet Collective Security efforts of which people such as Correlli Barnett and Alexander Werth also wrote extensively. A must read from Mr. Armstrong.

Larry Posted An Importnat Observation.

I  concur. 

I am more sanguine than the New York Times about Russia’s economic prospects. The war has stimulated a vast acceleration in Russia’s production of all things military. This is going to heat up the economy. Because Russia is self-sufficient in food and energy — the critical expenses that can hurt a family — the negative consequences of inflation are likely to be muted when it comes to the Russian consumers. I think the economic analysis proffered by the NY Times is based on the assumption that Russia remains vulnerable to Western economic pressures. That is no longer a valid benchmark. During the last 18 months Russia has been busy forging new economic ties with non-Western countries and establishing new trade dynamics.

At home, Russian workers have seen wages increase and Russian factories are struggling to keep up with demand. Instead of shuttering factories, Russia is building new ones and stepped up dramatically its production of tanks, combat aircraft, cruise missiles, hypersonic missiles, artillery ammunition and military vehicles. Russia enjoys one advantage the West does not — it is virtually self-sufficient in essential commodities, rare earth minerals and energy.

Here is an important point. Russia dedollarized dramatically. In mid 2010s banks would accept USDs outright, now--unless it is a brand new clean straight bill (such as $100) they will not even bother. Ruble rules and if 10 years ago you still could use USD sometimes as a payment say in taxicab, now--forget it. Only Rubles. The volatility of the exchange rate, now getting under control of Russia's CB, didn't affect overwhelming majority of population. Speculators and rich fat cats? Nobody gives a damn about them. 

The other thing of note: Western cars' service. Well, Russians simply started to produce parts themselves. No, not just buying from China, but domestic production. One of my closest friends drives (what a maroon, LOL)) 2020 Land Rover. Well, naturally he had to change both the water pump and some electric gizmo--both made in Russia. Guess what, he thanks God non-stop that these are Russian-made parts, work beautifully. Mind you, this is roughly $60,000 car. Again, when you have resources and massive machine building complex--this is all you need. And now NATO wants to freeze SMO. Well, no. SMO continues and we ain't seen nothing yet.

My First Latest Video.

First on the road, I mean. 

Enjoy, if you will.