They Should Have Listened ...

 ... to me. 

Trump administration officials told lawmakers during a closed-door briefing on Capitol Hill Tuesday that Iran’s Shahed attack drones represent a major challenge and US air defenses will not be able to intercept them all, according to a source in the briefing. The drones, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine acknowledged, are posing a bigger problem than anticipated, two sources in the briefing told CNN. They are known to fly low and slow – a feature that makes them more able to evade air defenses than ballistic missiles. Another source familiar with the briefing said the officials made an attempt to downplay concerns about the drones and noted that Gulf state partners had been stockpiling interceptors.

Well, these are not just "one-way drones", CNN morons do not even know that those are loitering munitions. As we now have more and more visual evidence, both missile and drone strikes are dealing a major damage to US bases and critical technical facilities and assets such as yet another THAAD's AN-TPY-2 Radar destroyed, plus a two AN/GSC-52B of Navy's satcomms are goners now and Donnie's "plan" (Israeli plan, really) seems to go nowhere. But the US air defense is a whole other story. For the first time since Vietnam the US is encountering people who shoot back and it hurts. 

Larry gives a good math of US AD inventory: 

Note that I am assuming that the entire inventory of US Patriot missiles have been deployed to Israel and US bases in the region. That is a false assumption because there are Patriot missile batteries with a full complement of missiles in other theaters. At present there are three Patriot battalions permanently assigned/forward-deployed to INDOPACOM (e.g., in South Korea/Japan/Guam areas, like 35th ADA Brigade and 1-1 ADA at Kadena); EUCOM has one Patriot battalion assigned (e.g., units in Germany like Baumholder/Ansbach areas, supporting NATO/Eastern flank). The US Army has 15 Patriot battalions total (14 fully available as of mid-2025, with one in modernization), each typically consisting of 4–6 batteries (a battery is the firing unit with launchers/radars). A Patriot battery (also called a fire unit) typically includes 6–8 launchers (Launching Stations), though configurations vary by operator, mission, and launcher type (e.g., M903 for modern U.S. systems). If we assume that the four Patriot battalions have four batteries each, with 72 missiles per battery, we get a total of 1,152 missiles that must be subtracted from the maximum possible number deployed to the Middle East — i.e., the actual inventory, using the most conservative estimate, is 1,221. That means the US inventory of PAC-3 MSE missiles, using the assumptions above that Iran is firing 60 ballistic missiles per day, the supply of missiles will run out in 10 days. This is why I assert that Donald Trump is out of touch with reality.

We know that Donnie is out of touch as is US Secretary of War--the guy with "degree" in Politics from Princeton and pseudo-military course from ROTC and who still didn't graduate from the mentality of at best platoon CO. His "combat experience" in Afghanistan being worthless in matters of REAL war and stand-off weaponry flying at you. 

Now about terrorist 404 attack on Russian gas transport in Med. 

Very typical of UK and their curators of 404--cowards hiding behind all kinds of "stories", so this will continue for a while, because terrorism is the extent of UK and European in general military "capabilities". 

In SMO news. 404 continues to get it, big time. Here are some views of Geranium flying in Poltava to visit dwindling energy infrastructure of 404. 

Demolishing of 404 continues and for those people who repeat ad nauseam about some "object lessons for Russia" about "negotiating" with the US. I want to repeat--study the subject (Russia that is) first and what and how she does in order for you not to become a victim of "political scientists" demagoguery. Strategy is a very complex statecraft and no, Russians know everything and more about combined West in general, and the US in particular. Do NOT delude yourself with headlines from media and TG channels by amateurs. 

P.S. I should be at Mario Nawfal's Roundtable in an hour or so. 

No, 60,000. No, A Million ...

 ... at least. You see, while we discuss here important things, issues, trends et all ...

Ukraine Unleashes 30,000 Drones on Moscow—Putin’s Defenses Crumble

This is the type of crap which West's media propagate. Each morning, after turning on my PC I get this shit popping up on MSN page. Every day NATO and 404 report about amazing victories over Russia and Putin's "regime" which is about to crumble. Together with air defense. But then, the author notes ... 

On numerous recent nights, Moscow's airports and other critical infrastructure have faced disruptions as Ukrainian drone operations target the city under coordinated command. Though Russian defenses intercept most drones, the sustained volume of attacks has caused temporary service disruptions and revealed challenges in defending against drone swarms. ... Moscow's missile defense systems continue to engage drone swarms, though analysts note the persistent pressure is creating operational challenges and cost-efficiency concerns. The consistent drone threat has prompted ongoing reassessment of air defense strategies.

Hm, if "Russian defenses intercept most drones" let me ask where did the author and these "analysts" learn that "The consistent drone threat has prompted ongoing reassessment of air defense strategies" from? I have the answer--they pulled this BS out of their asses, because should they have been real professionals they would have known that "reassessment" in any military field, including AD, goes on 24/7 on operational-tactical and operational-strategic levels. Russia's General Staff has a whole huge department in GOU (Main Operational Directorate) dedicated ONLY to issues of air-defense and is staffed with people with advanced (graduate and post-graduate) military-STEM degrees in Air Defense specifically and who commanded or have been COSs of high tactical level and higher Air Defense formations in Russia's military. It is a level of AD expertise NO NATO officer has, period. The West has NOTHING even remotely comparable to this.

In related news. 

Two Ukrainians have been identified as the suspected perpetrators behind two acts of sabotage targeting a railway line between Warsaw and Lublin on Monday, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told the parliament on Tuesday. According to him, the suspects sought to provoke a train crash. The prime minisiter accused the suspects of working “with the Russian intelligence for a long time.” According to Tusk, both alleged perpetrators fled to Belarus after the incidents.

Ah, OK. So they are Russians, after all, right? They must be Russians, otherwise how else morons in Warsaw can explain what is happening in Poland and that it is just the start--things will continue to deteriorate economically at an alarming rate for Poland, so ... Russians. Of course, who else. 

There Was An Air Of Excitement ...

 ... in one of the best in the universe concentration of specialists in armor warfare, London tabloid The Telegraph that is, LOL. So, they have been already tasting this sweet victory over those backward Russkies because, as you know, there is no better authority on armor warfare in the world than RUSI, King's College and ... The Telegraph. 

Troops are confident Ajax would be able to outgun and outperform similar Russian vehicles, spotting them at ranges of 8km before destroying them, while senior officials say the vehicles have enough armour to withstand drone bombardments that have become features of the 21st century battlefield in Ukraine.

Yes, yes--UK troops are "confident". But more realistic assessment is not as upbeat. 

The British Army just received its first new armored fighting vehicle (AFV) for nearly three decades, but it is years late, hit by rising costs, is still reportedly injuring its crew, and there are questions about whether it remains relevant in the age of drone warfare. …

Well, this Ajax thingy is a very classic British combat technology, akin to its Chobham armor which sucks, its Challenger tanks not-suited for real war, or, for that matter HMS Queen Elizabeth. But then again, how can you explain to any British general what real modern war is? Impossible, especially since they don't understand the meaning of RUK/ROK and overall netcentric nature of modern battlefield which is and will be controlled by Russia in any war due to massive leaps in both drone and anti-drone technology and AD the likes NATO simply has no concept of. 

So, here is a demonstration from yesterday--this is called situational and tactical awareness and then ... yep, ROK--Recon Fire Complex. 

What needs to be understood--Russians are not resting on laurels, they openly admit some gaps in terms of EW disruption (of course, there is a kinetic way to do so, but that's a whole other can of worms) of ISR by the US. But they are working on it and below the LEO (Low Earth Orbit) NATO ISR means in case of real war will be wiped out. But then again, what do I know ...

I am sure Russia's Combined Arms War College and Academy of General Staff are besieging The Telegraph and The Joint Services Command and Staff College, and of course RUSI, with requests for sending British officers to teach Russians about armor (and combined arms) warfare. British Army is welcome to send its new Ajaxes (before they injure most of their crews) to 404. I am sure SU-25s with Ka-52s, T-90Ms and Kornet crews need some additional R 50,000 for destroyed APC, which goes a long way in Russia. 

Illustration.

For those who still don't get it and do not want to see the reality of SMO. This is Torfyanovka border crossing facility at Russian-Finnish border. 

We crossed it twice--once on the way to St. Petersburg from Helsinki, once--other way around. There are busses between St. Petersburg and Helsinki. Nice, comfortable (with the toilet) busses. Every single vehicle stops both on Finnish and Russian check points, people disembark and go through customs and passport control. In Russia it is run, naturally, by Border Guards of FSB RF. Checks are thorough. And here is this illustration: once we all disembarked on Russian side (for entry) we, as American citizens, have been singled out (the only people from G-7 on the bus) and pushed ahead of everybody in the line. It was expected and FSB spoke to us for about 20 minutes while everyone was getting checked. After that and thorough check of our phones we have been let go.

And here is illustration: the only other non-Russian citizen persons who have been pushed even ahead of us have been a young mother and her son of about 10 years. Both had Ukrainian passports. Well, guess what--after 15-20 minutes of questioning they have been led inside service facilities and, as a result, they have been taken from the bus. Why, you may ask. Well, the explanation is filthy simple--under this "brotherly people" BS premise Russia, together with millions of genuinely displaced people allowed into the country a huge number of Ukies who hate Russian guts and continue their both passive and active "resistance"--a euphemism for sabotage and terrorism--against Russia. FSB has its hands full with detecting and eliminating a huge number of sleeper cells run by SBU and GUR under control of MI6, CIA and others on Russian territory and this involves, and you have guessed it by now, a large number of mid to short range drone operators who constantly try, and sometimes succeed, to attack Russia's infrastructure. 

Many people still cannot wrap their brains around the fact that Russia's European part ALONE--the territory where 80% of Russians live and work--is almost 4 million square kilometers or 1.5+ million square miles. To give a proper comparison--it is almost the area of a whole European Union. So, make your own conclusion what it means to control such a territory (including newly added administrative subjects of 404)--even the best ISR means (and Russia DOES have best ISR means) do not guarantee detecting a group of saboteurs who can move into the launch area with hidden prepositioned or simply carried 10-12 drones and launch them at any target. Even modified 45 minutes endurance commercial drone with about 0.5 kilo of explosives attached to it gives you a range of about 40-50 kilometers. Let's recall middle school geometry: A=3.14 x 50^2 = 3.14 x 2,500= 7,853 square kilometers one must search and detect.  

If we re talking about drones with the range of 100 kilometers it gives you, consequently, the area of 31,400 square kilometers to control and search and here we are talking about equivalent of the territory of... Belgium. So, good luck opening the Theory of Search, together with the Theory of Probability, Statistics and the math and physics of modern ISR means and there you go--you may finally understand that technology alone is NOT enough, especially in the country covered with forests. One MUST have a superb human intel on the ground and the network of informants. In case of Russia we are talking about thousands upon thousands possible and highly probable Ukie saboteurs who are... drum roll--Russian citizens. Russia IS NOT going to do American Japanese "thingy" of 1940s. 

And now that you know these very simple facts you may appreciate the issue of Operational Sweeps, Probability Density Maps, sensor fusion and human intel, among many other things, which may help to understand the scale and the scope Russia's military-intel community faces in mitigating 404 (NATO's, really) threats. THERE WILL BE leakers, the sabotage will continue such as attacks on Pskov or Moscow, or Rostov-on-Don et al, and some will get lucky--it is inevitable in case of the scale of the events unfolding in a front of our eyes. It is simple as that. And that is why this Ukrainian woman and her son have been taken off the bus and have been led for thorough check. We learned later that after the checks have been completed she and her (now identified and confirmed) son have been put on the next bus to Russia. 

Meanwhile, one of the last remaining European statesmen, Viktor Orban notes what I am writing about for many years now:

The administration of US President Joe Biden “misunderstands” Russians if it expects economic sanctions and frontline losses to erode support for President Vladimir Putin, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has claimed. The focus of Western politics is on “how to provide more freedom to the people,” while for Russians the top priority is national unity, Orban told US journalist Tucker Carlson in an interview published on X (formerly Twitter) on Wednesday. “This creates a kind of military approach [by Russia]… always on security, safety, buffer zone, geopolitical approaches,” the Hungarian prime minister explained, arguing that this attitude was “legitimate” considering Russia’s history. “They misunderstand the Russians,” Orban said of the US leadership. “It is a difficult thing, especially when you have an ocean between you and Russia.”

As I am on record ad nauseam--people who run US degree mills for the "elite", they have no tool kit for grasping what it means being on the grounds of this, now beloved by Russians, cathedral:

And why the names of Alexander Nevsky, Mikhail Kutuzov and Zhukov with Rokossovsky, among many others, present today the unbreakable stream of Russia's 1,000 + years long history and why when you pass on the highway by Lakhta Center you see this grandiose sight:

And that is why the feeling of a calm confidence is palpable in Russia. Something clicked in such a way in Russia that US decision makers simply cannot understand. This is what Tolstoy called a "latent warmth of patriotism" among Russian Army personnel on the eve of Borodino Battle. So, one or two "successful" attacks by Kiev criminals change absolutely nothing and they know it. I warned long time ago that Russians are wrong people to fuck with but they never listen.

PR, Again.

Knee jerk "discussions" on "war on Russia" after attacks on Moscow residential areas is just that--knee jerk media fodder. I reiterate again--Russia is at war with NATO whose proxy, a Nazi Kiev regime, is based on "Ukrainstvo"--a concept discussed so many times that I am not even going to bother. Russia is filled with refugees from 404 and among those people there are very many who are fanatical Ukies and SBU/GUR/CIA/MI6 assets. Judging by the look of those drones (see the video where S1 Pantsir takes one out) those are relatively small short range drones launched either inside or slightly outside of Moscow. 

Tuesday’s failed drone raid on Moscow was an attempt at payback by Kiev for Russia’s latest airstrikes on a Ukrainian decision-making center, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has claimed. This comes after the Russian Defense Ministry reported that eight plane-type UAVs were shot down near the Russian capital. “It is clear that we are talking about the response of the Kiev regime to our very effective strikes on one of the decision-making centers. This strike took place on Sunday,” Peskov told journalists after the attack. President Vladimir Putin later confirmed that Russian forces struck Ukraine’s military intelligence headquarters in Kiev “two or three days ago.” Peskov stated that he was not aware if the drone launch sites had been determined, but argued that the attack “once again confirms” the need to continue the military operation in Ukraine until its goals are achieved. The spokesman also said the authorities and military personnel in Moscow and Moscow Region had carried out their duties properly and that the air defense systems also “worked well.”

It is pure terrorism (see definition of terrorism) which is directed against civilian targets and civilians. It is MO of the 404 special services "trained" by CIA/MI6 and some other foreign "special services" who excel in matters of terrorizing civilian populations. I guess when one consistently gets its ass handed to it, this is the only thing which is left to do. In general, and it is axiomatic, the terrorism is a weapon of the weak. And when one looks at such specimen as Lindsey Graham, who is a certified supporter of terrorism, among many others who exist in the corridors of power in the West, one gets to know everything one needs. I reiterate--the only war combined West is capable of conducting is PR. Terrorist actions are the part of this war and have a tacit support among Western political "elites" and media. And yes, they are desperate.

Following the raid, Putin stated that “Kiev’s attack on civilian targets in Moscow confirms what method Kiev uses,” calling Tuesday’s incident “terrorist activity.” Russian officials have suggested that the goal of the drone raid was to spread panic in Moscow. “Ukraine and its Western handlers would certainly like to see lines of cars leaving Moscow, closed shops, and demonstrations,” the deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on Defense, Aleksey Zhuravlev, said, noting that Kiev had ultimately failed to achieve its goal of spreading panic and that the attack has not affected life in the capital in any way.

Everything one needs to know. I have nothing more to add. Now it is a matter for FSB and MVD to deal with the issue, but since Russia allowed millions of 404 refugees, such actions will continue, because NATO cannot fight and win at the real battlefield. Knowing who runs modern West--I am not surprised.

He Has A Point...

... but in a very narrow sector of scenarios.  

Because he forgets to mention that in major powers' war even the most expensive air defense systems such as Aegis and coupled to it SM family of missiles are not designed for fighting in high-supersonic, let alone hypersonic, anti-shipping missiles' saturated environment. Salvo Model has good predictive powers, while SMO demonstrated what modern air-defense should be and the US is NOT in this game. Yes, drones and other flying cheap things do matter, but in real peer-to-peer competition targeting is provided by fusing an enormous data, including from space-based assets.   

In the end, there is always S1 and its newest and very cheap anti-drone missile Gvozd (Nail). 

Together with disruptive EW and anti-optronic systems widely used in SMO, the solution is already here and it was already demonstrated to an astonishing effectiveness in Syria when defending Khmeimim air base. But as I am on record, I doubt that the US (and the West) are capable of applying lessons to their AD and other weapon systems since... Well, I'll be talking about this in my next video.

Russia Celebrates The 76th.

I don 't know if you saw an officer from Air Defense taking his grandad (photo) to parade while driving in the AD complex on the Red Square--you can see it in the Parade video, but Russia celebrates. This is Moscow few hours ago. 

But the events near Rzhev yesterday were really remarkable. This was Russian youth doing what they needed to do because it is their calling (in Russian). 

This is the NEW generation of Russians, and they are the future. It is a good one. 

 

Israel (yes, yes, I know) also knows how the whole thing went (in Russian). In Israel 9th of May is a national holiday. 

Story, Never-Ending Story (c).

Ah, so now we hear... the same ol' song. 

The new U.S. Air Force Chief of Staff is warning his service it faces stiff competition in a future war, involving aircraft and personnel losses not seen for 80 years. General Charles Q. Brown, Jr. believes the Air Force must work to accelerate change, adapting to new technologies faster than its potential adversaries. Brown warns that “good enough today will fail tomorrow,” with grave implications for the entire country. 

He also goes as far as to predict WW II level loses for USAF against peers. This is really a classic "cry wolf" situation because Pentagon inflated threats so many times that when, actually, the statement has a ring of truth to it, few will publicly aknowledge its merit. USAF, of course, still blows the smoke up out asses because what the USAF wants is to fight some third-tier opponent with grossly inferior air-force in order to make such statements (famous "analyst" Mizokami does it for them):

The Air Force has essentially been the supreme air force on the planet since 1991. The destruction of the Yugoslav Air Force in 1999 marked the beginning of more than 20 years of virtually uncontested air operations for the service lasting to this day. Since then, combat operations over Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Somalia, and elsewhere have largely been uncontested. 

For starters, Mizokami mixed two different things. "Uncontested" merely meant that the US was and is bombing the shit out of countries which didn't have viable air forces to start with. Yugoslav Air Force was barely a factor in NATO's gang-rape of Serbia, which didn't prevent the US from threatening Russia trying to ensure that no S-300 AD complexes ever made it to Serbia. Moreover, in Syria the USAF is contested in a sense that Russia's VKS guard vast territories of Syria from the US control. Russia closes her eyes mostly on Israel's operations against Iranian assets there. The decision is purely political and underscores an immense complexity of politics in the Middle East. Lastly, the USAF met a proper peer in a proper, classic, air-to-air combat only in Korean War against Soviet 64th Fighter Corps and it was an unpleasant account for USAF. I do not include Vietnam here, but even there Vietnamese gave a good account of themselves in the air, while making sure that Air Defense becomes a more complex affair than merely AAA and dogfights. They, with the help of the USSR, surely succeeded. 

Today we are deep inside Real Revolution in Military Affairs where the USAF faces insurmountable barrier of advanced technologies and operational concepts which make all, grossly backward, views on the air-war as merely a contest between two opposing air forces as relevant to reality on the ground, or in the air, for that matter, as having a crank-shaft for 2020 Toyota Camry or Chevrolet Camaro as means of starting the engine. It is good that Charles Brown acknowledges possible losses for USAF in the modern peer-to-peer war, but as Russians say--best air defense is our tanks at enemy's airfields. Russia is not going to be sending tanks to take Rammstein or whatever forward jump air strips may be chosen in case the US and NATO want to commit physical suicide, but modern air war, even before any aircraft reaches the edges of weapons' release, which in itself a dubious proposition, will pretty much have no airfields to come back to, nor, very possible, countries from which any attempts may be made against Russia or, for that matter, China. 

Reality of modern air war is such that every single NATO aircraft will be tracked the moment it takes off from any field in Europe, in fact, many will be tracked while at the runway getting ready to take off, the first wave of counter-strike will be in the air shortly after that and even before those aircraft are properly airborne things will start happening which USAF never encountered before, ranging from great degrading, or complete shut-down, of communications to long-range EW, to disabling GPS and the list is too long to continue. And this is before anything happens at all. USAF never in its history operated in the environment like that and the remedy it suggests is, oh, boy...

How will the Air Force do this? Drones, drones, and more drones. Manned military aviation has been in a death spiral for some time. Technological complexity leads to increasingly sophisticated aircraft that require more time and money to develop. As a result, planes like the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter require two decades to develop, cost $90 million each, and require months to build. The result is a smaller air force where even brand-new fighter jets feature 20-year-old technology, which isn't capable of making up for World War II-style losses.

I am having a... facepalm. A real drone, capable of any real military impact while carrying out whatever mission: strike, recon, air-to-air etc. will still be subjected, in the war against peer (Russia and China), to the same set of threats and counter-measures, which will either mitigate their impact or derail drones' mission altogether, unless it is a drone which is...well..expensive and extremely valuable, which brings us all back to the square one. The United States, as Andrei Raevsky once succinctly observed, can not fight wars on cheap, period. In fact, the ratios of US military technology costs relative to the same by peers continue to grow across the board for the United States. This is not a good indicator at all, for ANY military technology the United States procures or is about to. Same applies to drones. The world changed and any most "advanced" technologies the US tries to develop and procure are already obsolete the moment they leave manufacturing floor. 

Without understanding of modern peer-to-peer conflict as a whole, as a vertical engagement from a strategic down to tactical levels, with all forces involved in it and interacting constantly across modern battle-space, all this silly talk is just...well, silly. At least RAND's big air operations honcho understands that:

We lose a lot of people. We lose a lot of equipment. We usually fail to achieve our objective of preventing aggression by the adversary,” RAND analyst David Ochmanek told a security conference on Thursday. “In our games, when we fight Russia and China, blue gets its ass handed to it.”

Well, good that he at least understands that. As per "aggression" tropes, as I say non-stop: it so tired, it is so contrived and its really so rich coming from people whose actual combat score against peaceful weddings exceeds that against competent and determined air forces as of lately, that one has to simply dismiss this BS and admit that at this stage US military simply cannot adapt and develop a viable fighting doctrine and technology to fight serious adversary capable of rearranging stones, even without any nuclear weapons, anywhere in the world. In related news, Boeing wants at least 20% of its labor force to be black, while Hollywood issued new guide-lines for Oscars on inclusion (wokeness, that is). What can possibly go wrong? s/ 

Was Israel First In Space Too?

I am sure Mel Brooks' Jews in Space was based on real events (wink, wink--I love Mel): 

So, I think statements such as this:

Military drone technology was pioneered by Israel in the 1980s and later developed by the U.S. to fight the global war on terror. But success brought complacency, and in recent years countries such as China, Turkey, Iran, and Russia have made rapid progress in building their own drones

Should only be attributed to sheer ignorance and Israel sucking up culture which permeates neocons rags such as National Review, but since the author of this drivel is Mr. Frantzman, originally from Jerusalem Post, it is not surprising that working with facts is not the strongest trait of their craft. The next you know they will declare US to be a main force defeating Nazism... oh, wait.  So, I think a bit of a retrospective on the origins of "military drone technology" is due and we go back to 1964, when TU-123 Yastreb (Hawk)--my-my, Russians even "stole" the name--was introduced into regular service with Soviet Armed Forces., which was... well--a drone. The technology was raw and imperfect, to put it mildly, but these machines were doing exactly what modern, much much more advanced, drones do--primarily provide intelligence. So, the issue of Israel "pioneering" this technology is at best debatable. Moreover, Lavochkin design bureau came up with its LA-17 drone even earlier--in 1962 it introduced Lavochkin-17R. 

Boy, talk about not getting one's facts straight. But I have a consolation for National Review--Israel DID help Russia in 2010s to "develop" some of drones, by selling Israeli drones to Russia. Of course, even this fact has to be put in proper context but we will omit this for now, since it is irrelevant to the issue of "pioneering". This is not to mention the fact that creating things of this nature was and remains currently beyond economic and technological Israeli expertise:

So, I guess, just let them get the prize.  

And The Trolling Starts.

On the other hand--why not? As you may have noticed, I didn't write a thing about attack on Saudi oil facilities by allegedly Houthis' drones (cruise missiles?). First, I have no free time to pour over every single piece of text and visual info to do post battle assessment If one is interested, one can easily download Methodology For Combat Assessment (CJCSI 3162.02) and have a go at it. Secondly, there are people who would do a better job than me anyway, such as Bernhard of Moon of Alabama, or my virtual acquaintances from Colonel Lang's Blog. Plus, I don't think that the stream of info on that matter stopped. We may yet hear some more on this operation by Houthis. And then, of course, my well justified lack of trust in Middle Eastern media sources. 

One thing which is clear here, if to assume Houthis' salvo (who supplied then with what is a separate matter), is the fact of the failure of the Saudi air-defense (US produced Patriot PAC-2 and ancient Hawk complexes) to do much about this attack. Well, guess what, Russia is ready to pick up a slack, especially against the background of impenetrable wall Russian AD systems created around Khmeimim air base in Syria against precisely the types of weapons all kinds of jihadists are trying to use. Vladimir Putin, being Vladimir Putin simply flat out offered Saudis to buy Russian S-300 and S-400 systems (in Russian). He even quoted Quran. Well, there is an English version now available.

(Bloomberg) -- President Vladimir Putin said Russia is willing to help defend Saudi Arabia by selling it the advanced S-400 anti-aircraft system after major oil facilities in the kingdom came under attack at the weekend, halting half of its crude production. “For self-defense, for the defense of one’s country, we are ready to provide help to Saudi Arabia, the political leadership of Saudi Arabia,” Putin told a joint press conference with the leaders of Iran and Turkey on Monday in Ankara. “It is enough to take a wise government decision, as the leaders of Iran did before, buying the S-300, and as President Erdogan did, buying the latest air defense system, S-400 Triumph,” Putin said, referring to the Turkish president. “They will protect any infrastructure objects in Saudi Arabia effectively.”

I can only imagine the face expression of some people in current US government and legislature when they hear (or read) this.

But truth is, we need to be cautious before jumping to the conclusion on who actually executed the attack and if it was, which is possible, a false flag. This thought, of course, doesn't prevent shiny military toys freelance masturbator and self-proclaimed "security expert" Kyle Mizokami already declaring B-2 "Stealth" bomber to be the asset Donald Trump can use to strike Iran. But what if it wasn't Iran behind that? But never mind--there is nothing more nauseating than some dude (or gal) with degree in English Literature, journalism or political "science" waxing "operational" and "tactical". What can possibly go wrong? Ah yes, late Tom Clancy.

As per S-300 and S-400 for Saudis, I don't know--it is, of course, a good business (money-wise) and Russia was in negotiations with Saudis on this matter for some time now. This attack, if it has been done by Houthis, who have all reasons to hate genocidal regime in Riyadh, then Saudis, indeed, may seriously consider switching to Air Defense systems which actually work. This brings us to a second, short point of Bibi visiting his "buddy" Vladimir in Sochi, where, according to many, including Israeli, sources Bibi was warned to stop exercising an illusion that Russia will not shoot down IAF planes if they strike SAA's personnel and facilities.                            

Netanyahu gets little from Putin in Sochi meeting

So, who knows, but rumor has it that Russia's VKS in Syria intercepted IAF's aircraft on three occasions. Is it true? Possible. Russians seldom advertise their power actions when diplomacy may follow after that. But, I guess, we will learn about all that in a due time. Israeli elections are tomorrow.