This Is What Happens ...

... when your qualifications are "honed" around military whose understanding of air defense is rather ... from the last century. Starting with this drivel author's CV. 

Do you get my drift? The guy, evidently, is Canadian or started in Canada and by his own admission is: Scholar / Academic leader / Think Tank member / Educator / Opinion columnist / Novelist / Bridging the worlds of academia, media and policy in the international security space. Because he has degree in non-existent science he decided to wet dream the dream about 404 ballistic missiles.

Vladimir Putin’s greatest vulnerability in Moscow was never the building everyone is watching. A Ukrainian weapon striking the Kremlin, even by accident, would be the most dramatic image this war has produced. It would not be the most dangerous one, and that distinction matters more now than it did a month ago, because Ukraine just told the world it is building a weapon that would leave Moscow far less time to figure out what was actually happening.

Latham's excitement oozes from his deep military thoughts and he doesn't understand that he merely confirms what I speak about for years--NATO's wars are primarily about PR and image, not about real war and here is what betrays in him a sheer amateur. 

A ballistic missile compresses the warning window to minutes, compared with the extended tracking and engagement window even a large drone raid gives Russian air defense.

This is because he wasted his life on all kinds of pseudo-scientific and fraudulent academic endeavors and doesn't know this simple fact that this imaginary 404 ballistic missile represents no bigger threat than drones and, in fact, is EASIER target not because of the "warning window" but because of a ballistic trajectory and its visibility for early warning systems of Russia, ranging from space-based Kupol controlling Northern Hemisphere 24/7 in visible, infrared and UV diapasons to a networked anti-missile early warning system such as Container and Resonance which, depending on what in Latham's phantasy world passes for the "ballistic missile", can detect the launch OVER and beyond horizon and have track shared with such things like S-500, S-300V4 and other funny Russia AD systems which are designed specifically for dealing with such ballistic targets. 

Should Latham have learned from real professionals he would have learned that overwhelming majority of the 404 ballistic systems, starting from notorious Tochka-U to ATACMS have been intercepted not even by those fancy Russian Anti-missile systems, but even by such rather common AD systems as Buk-M2 and Tor-M2. But, of course, Latham wants the strike on Kremlin so badly that he forgets that:

1. 404 has to produce such a missile in the first place. 

2. In case of highly unlikely, but let's say for the sake of argument, successful hit on Kremlin by this non-existent missile, Kiev will cease to exist. While in the process, most of "elites" in Europe will soil themselves. 

So, what's left? Well, how about Mr. Latham goes back to school (high school) and learns basics of Earth curvature and, for example, why even fairly sophisticated Trident II D-5 SLBM had to be armed with a new trigger, because even for these highly evolved missiles launching at suppressed trajectories (to shorten the flight time) reduces their counter-force accuracy tremendously. Even when carrying nuclear MIRVs--they simply lose destructive effect.  

The rest of his mangled word salad of a military amateur is merely a wet dream by a guy who senses that NATO is utterly defeated; he is a sore loser who cannot accept the fact of NATO being a backward military paper tiger incapable of serious combined arms operations (it doesn't have TOE, sustainment capability and is operationally and strategically illiterate), which also lost the arms race by being knocked out of the ring. So, he listens to 404 and Pentagon fairy tales and publishes a kindergarten level "military" fantasies. His elaborations on Russia's nuclear triad and 404 "operations" ... well, that is why the US loses its wars. 

Yes, And I Want ...

 ... the prototype of newest nuclear reactor in my backyard--to save money on energy. Exclusive! Breaking News! Sensation! Yes, this is Reuters.

KYIV, July 27 (Reuters) - Ukraine wants a prototype for a European anti-ballistic system codenamed Freyja to be ready within the first half of next year, a senior official said, as Kyiv pushes its allies to help deliver a weapon capable of downing Russian missiles. Davyd Aloian, deputy secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council, who oversees the Freyja project, said that an international steering committee tasked with estimating the research and development costs was due to convene for the first time soon.

Sure, sure. I have the news though--Russian "ballistic" missiles used in SMO are ballistic primarily in title. Both Iskander and Iskander M fly quasi-ballistically maneuvering like crazy. Some very few intercepts of early versions of Iskanders have been achieved at near terminal and even that is primarily from 404 "reports". That means it could all be BS. 

But the issue is simpler--Europe lacks required expertise and capacity for design and production of weapon systems which are adequate (forget about being highly effective) for the modern battlefield. Period. The statement like these, moreover, create a Homeric laughter in Russian military. 

Ukraine is chronically dependent on U.S.-made Patriot air defence systems, which is the only weapon in its arsenal capable of reliably downing Russia's ballistic missiles, which travel at several times the speed of sound. 

Yes, and I am Marlon Brando. Europe tied itself to criminal Nazi regime in Kiev and she is going to die with it. 

Why "Potential"?

NATO in general and the US in particular established itself as an aggressor and is known to not shy away from atrocity when it suites it. 

Does General Randy Manner want to tell us that Kellogs, Keanes and likes, who are plenty to go around, are exceptions? Boy, he should wait for Ukraine War Crimes Tribunal going public once SMO is over. I can remind the general about this guy: 

Iraqi detainees in Gen H.R. McMaster's custody were treated in an inhuman fashion bordering on torture in 2005, according to a U.S. Military Police officer.

Exception? Again? When was the last time USMC fought in defense of Motherland, yes American Motherland?

It is an expeditionary force designed to put aboriginals in far away places under the US control. So, now that the danger of real physical annihilation on service of Israel gets real for any force which ventures in Iran's vicinity we get more admissions. Iran is a real deal, and it just declared mobilization of one million men for the armed forces. 

Meanwhile, here is the demonstration what the US doesn't have in principle--effective AD. Here is Buk M3 shoots down yet another HIMARS rocket. Expenditure--1 AD missile. 

And yes, the US is still providing recon and targeting to 404 terrorists, while hiding behind their backs. Russia is now doing her own "hiding". 

No, 60,000. No, A Million ...

 ... at least. You see, while we discuss here important things, issues, trends et all ...

Ukraine Unleashes 30,000 Drones on Moscow—Putin’s Defenses Crumble

This is the type of crap which West's media propagate. Each morning, after turning on my PC I get this shit popping up on MSN page. Every day NATO and 404 report about amazing victories over Russia and Putin's "regime" which is about to crumble. Together with air defense. But then, the author notes ... 

On numerous recent nights, Moscow's airports and other critical infrastructure have faced disruptions as Ukrainian drone operations target the city under coordinated command. Though Russian defenses intercept most drones, the sustained volume of attacks has caused temporary service disruptions and revealed challenges in defending against drone swarms. ... Moscow's missile defense systems continue to engage drone swarms, though analysts note the persistent pressure is creating operational challenges and cost-efficiency concerns. The consistent drone threat has prompted ongoing reassessment of air defense strategies.

Hm, if "Russian defenses intercept most drones" let me ask where did the author and these "analysts" learn that "The consistent drone threat has prompted ongoing reassessment of air defense strategies" from? I have the answer--they pulled this BS out of their asses, because should they have been real professionals they would have known that "reassessment" in any military field, including AD, goes on 24/7 on operational-tactical and operational-strategic levels. Russia's General Staff has a whole huge department in GOU (Main Operational Directorate) dedicated ONLY to issues of air-defense and is staffed with people with advanced (graduate and post-graduate) military-STEM degrees in Air Defense specifically and who commanded or have been COSs of high tactical level and higher Air Defense formations in Russia's military. It is a level of AD expertise NO NATO officer has, period. The West has NOTHING even remotely comparable to this.

In related news. 

Two Ukrainians have been identified as the suspected perpetrators behind two acts of sabotage targeting a railway line between Warsaw and Lublin on Monday, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told the parliament on Tuesday. According to him, the suspects sought to provoke a train crash. The prime minisiter accused the suspects of working “with the Russian intelligence for a long time.” According to Tusk, both alleged perpetrators fled to Belarus after the incidents.

Ah, OK. So they are Russians, after all, right? They must be Russians, otherwise how else morons in Warsaw can explain what is happening in Poland and that it is just the start--things will continue to deteriorate economically at an alarming rate for Poland, so ... Russians. Of course, who else. 

Mike Mihailovich ...

 ... who I know from joint broadcasts at RT et al, penned an article in Air Forces Monthly magazine. Keep in mind, Mike is a professional AD officer from Serbia. 

Mike is being diplomatic in this (I believe British) magazine, including a standard "objectivity" term such as "the truth is somewhere in the middle", but he is absolutely correct when stating that "Kinzhal still unbeaten" in the title to his professional note. 

Needless to say, Russians do not view all versions, including latest MSE, of Patriot PAC3 as a viable anti-missile defense. It still can shoot down combat aircraft and some cruise missiles with drones--it is absolutely incapable of intercepting any kind of hypersonic weapons and supersonic ones such as P-800 Oniks. It has huge issues with classic land-attack cruise missiles such as 3M14 and Kh-101. US has absolutely no defense against hypersonic missiles anywhere on the horizon. It is simple physics--M=9+ maneuvering hypersonic missile (apart from huge issues of detecting, tracking and, let alone, having firing solution) requires a new philosophy in developing AD missile to even try to intercept a single 3M22 Zircon, not to speak of a salvo of same. The technological challenge is immense and NATO has no answer for that. Fact is, good ol' P-700 Granit (SS-N-19 Shipwreck) can still provide leakers in salvo against modern NATO navies' AD. 

P.S. Per these French escapades with a "shadow fleet" tanker. Well, Russian Navy will have to simply establish convoy system. Does Marine Royale want to get sunk? Or better yet, how many Oreshniks it takes to free some good real estate areas in Paris? 

Meanwhile. 

He Doesn't Have Many Options Left.

And that is to put it mildly. 

US President Donald Trump said on Sunday he is open to Russian President Vladimir Putin serving as a mediator in the Israel-Iran conflict. In an hour-long phone call the previous day, the two leaders focused on the Middle East crisis. “Yeah, I would be open to it. He is ready. He called me about it,” Trump responded to ABC News’ Rachel Scott, when asked about Putin’s potential role in brokering peace. “We had a long talk about it. We talked about this more than his situation. This is something I believe is going to get resolved,” Trump added.

No, Donny, this is not a quid-pro-quo and if you are trying to convince Russia that in exchange she should allow the US, who is at war (through NATO proxy) with Russia, any "mediation" between Moscow and whatever will be left of 404--I have a bridge to sell you. In related news, Iran continues to demonstrate military and technological incompetence of NATO (Israel is a ME iteration of NATO), while you lost all credibility by greenlighting Israel's attack on Iran, while heralding to the whole world how much you are for peace. 

I am on record, will repeat again--the US lost the arms race(c). For the nation which made military fairy tales a central piece of its national mythology it is a bitter and painful recognition that now Iran will be doing, on a smaller scale what Russia is doing on a much larger one--yes, Al Capone's approach that with the kind word and a gun, one can get much further than with kind word alone. And combined West better start shaking in its boots now because on Monday Iranian Parliament may decide to really close the Strait of Hormuz, and we all know what it means. In latest updates, however, a truckload of Israeli strikes landed on the ... fake targets Iran placed all over the country--plenty of videos of Israelis attacking empty trailer. But yes, they are good at propaganda. If there is a firm confirmation of THAAD leaving the chat, which not only I believe but anticipate, that will merely confirm my old-standing thesis that NATO's AD is for the wars between 1960 and 1980, not for 2025. 

That is why it doesn't matter how many Patriots or even THAADs the US will move to Israel. So far, not a single successful exoatmospheric intercept by Israelis--you can be sure they say they did, but then again, they also say that they have functional and effective AD--but then again, nothing is more entertaining than some moron journo coming up with pseudo-military platitudes. I will abstain from comments on the parade in D.C. I want to say one thing, though--while much of the US Army history is exaggerated, if not simply made up, it is still an important Army with respectable WW II history and its own share of heroism, dedication and, once, strategic brilliance. It didn't deserve to be humiliated at DJT's "parade", but it is too late now. Donny, one cannot buy class and I am telling this to you, not the US Army.  

They Made a Discovery.

 WOW! 

In accordance with American doctrine, anti-aircraft defense has never been the real strong point of European armies. Indeed, according to NATO, it is the air force that must ensure the control of tactical air threats, thanks to a fighter and support fleet (Awacs, tankers), far superior in number, quality and training to the Russian air forces. However, the war in Ukraine has shown that it is no longer necessary to fly over the enemy's airspace to carry out tactical strikes, but also conventional long-range strategic strikes against the enemy's key forces and infrastructure. Thus, most of the destruction recorded in Ukraine, concerning command infrastructure, ammunition stocks, as well as civil infrastructure and works of art (energy, communication, etc.), was the consequence of strikes by Iskander-M and Kinzhal ballistic missiles, Kh-35, Kh-55, Kh-101 and Kalibr cruise missiles, as well as Geran-2 long-range attack drones, without the carrier vectors ever having to penetrate Ukrainian airspace. In fact, when faced with Russia, Europe is more exposed than ever, facing a threat against which it has not fully prepared itself. Indeed, today, the European armies align, together, less than 50 long-range Patriot, SAMP/T and S-300 anti-aircraft batteries, of which only half have anti-ballistic capabilities against short-range missiles, such as the Iskander-M.

Well, my not so dear European "friends", I have news for you--whole US fighting doctrine is obsolete and is from WW II. US concept of air war is altogether from BEFORE WW II and is nothing but modified pre-WW II (1920s) Duhe's ideas dressed in advanced radar and high precision weapons. NATO air forces are a joke which wouldn't be able to compete with Russian VKS which are networked from ground up and make NATO's, let alone Euro NATO's, air defense look like expensive toys. This is the price NATO pays today by exposing itself as a corpse, which chocked on its own Kool Aid about "finest fighting force in history" and Top Gun: Maverick. 

NATO is a corpse. All that remains is the grotesque performance art of a diplomatic zombie stumbling from summit to summit, mouthing tired clichés about “shared values” and “burden sharing,” even as its core strategic logic lies rotting beneath the surface. The Atlantic Alliance, once the steel scaffolding of Western security, has become a hollow ritual. Its military readiness is an illusion. Its political cohesion is fraying. Its future, if it has one, lies not in revival—but in reinvention or replacement. 

Meanwhile, Witkoff met with Putin. 

He carried the message from Trump. We can only speculate. British military and its highest officer corps are a joke, now we know this because The Times exposed it, while trying to put the lipstick on the pig. I speak about it in my today's video. 

SMO Continues Nicely ...

 ... Kirovograd (Kropivnitsky) industrial remnants used by VSU get it. Russians call Geraniums mopeds for a reason. 

As is clear from the video--no AD. SEAD operations in SMO will be studied by serious military professionals for decades. Because by 2022 it was the BEST NATO Air Defense, which continued to be supplied non-stop by the US and EU till today. Didn't help much and the thing they try to avoid talking about is ... drum roll--extremely low losses of Russia's tactical operational aviation. Yes, all those NASAMS, Patriots, SAMP-Ts and others failed miserably to operate in the environment shaped by the long-range fires and state-of-the-art netcentric combat aviation fully capable of CEC (Cooperative Engagement Capability). 

This is what USAF loved to talk about itself, while in reality encountering nothing what RuAF encountered in 404 and dealt with it in extraordinary manner and in doing so created a lot of butthurt and sour grapes in the West. Remember General Cavoli? "Scale, scale, scale". Make no mistake, though--there are many in Russia: shysters and outright SBU/GUR assets such as Rybar, Podolyaka, so called Fighterbomber et al, who, after years of spreading 404's propaganda are facing today some tough monetary and even upcoming legal problems. As the common wisdom goes--actions speak louder than words, and Russian Forces do actions, they don't talk much. In conclusion--enjoy some training of Vladimir Putin's security detail))

Just for fun. 

From Soggy Helsinki.

Waiting to board our plane in hotel. Evidently Finnish hotels are designed and built with people of 100 pounds' weight and the height of 4'5" in mind. I, as you may expect, am neither. So, after Moscow and St.Petersburg Helsinki looks rather... timid. But I am happy to leave for calmer and smaller (in urban sense) pastures. Metropolis living is not for me. Especially such monsters as Moscow and St. Petersburg. Now to our goats, so to speak. 

The butcher's bill for 404 grows, it is simply now a daily summary of Ukie bodies and looking at militarily illiterate psychos in Biden's Admin dreaming to "mobilize" whatever is left of 404 male, primarily 16-17 year old kids and 60+ people, yes, this is how they think. As I already stated--I was stunned by military illiteracy of not only political class in the West, but by NATO military top brass. Everything what is known about wars of the XX century and modern and future wars has been lost on them. It is surreal to observe people who pontificate non-stop on "multi-domain operations" while they do not know basic facts--forget math and physics of war--about WW II and modern (and future) weapon systems. This, not some PR BS matters in serious practical geopolitics. 

When they try to portray the "battle for Rabotino"--a hamlet with pre-war "population" of a whopping 480 people--and which doesn't exist physically anymore--as some kind of "battle", it is difficult to explain to them that the piece of land which used to be Rabotino is "defended" by a few SSO who sit there and guide Russian artillery at VSU forces each-time they try to "enter" this pile of rubble--a classic "fire sack". This is ooh the "tactics" any Soviet kid knew in 5-6th grade. But then again, when one's Field Manuals and Doctrines are written for beating the crap from generally defenseless people what do you expect? Right, Zapp Brannigan's way of military thinking. 

This all is so surreal that one begins to ask the question if they really teach anything real war related in NATO military "academies". That brings us to the issue of cadre officers. This topic needs a separate and in depth treatment. Larch sent me a recent piece by Andrei Ilnitsky (yes, in many photos he does look like Kevin Costner) and here is what this graduate of the Academy of General Staff wrote in his piece titled Induced Degradation of the World (in Russian):

Доминировавший долгие годы тезис о том, что в управлении страной должны быть интеллектуалы-технократы, — неточен, а в нынешних условиях цивилизационного противостояния с Западом — вреден. России нужны профессионалы с четким ценностным профилем служения Отечеству.

Translation: The thesis that dominated for many years that technocratic intellectuals should be in charge of the country is inaccurate, and in the current conditions of civilizational confrontation with the West is harmful. Russia needs professionals with a clear value profile of serving the Fatherland.

I may not agree with the entirety of otherwise good piece, but this is spot on. Remarkably, this also applies to combined West if it wants to survive. Without it--it is over. For Europe it already happened, for the US a slim chance remains. Remarkably, Larry touches on one of the major aspects of the issue--MSM. 

We are now in an era where I believe that the mainstream media, especially TV and Cable, are largely irrelevant. Yet the tradition of using those platforms is still firmly embedded in the establishment mentality. Politicians raise tons of money, or try to, just to buy time on conventional TV and Cable that a diminishing number of people are watching. The action has shifted to podcasts, X and other social media platforms. That is what the vast majority of Americans are watching. Most politicians do not understand nor comprehend the shift that has taken place. There are exceptions. Barack Obama picked up on it early. Donald Trump is the king of social media. And Vivek Ramaswamy gets in. The rest are still welded to the legacy media and foolishly spend money on TV ads that people skip if they can.

In the end, the blame game started by the US MSM about VSU "not following Pentagon advice" is a kindergarten ploy to shift the blame for a catastrophe for NATO towards VSU generals who do NOT in effect have real operational control over what remains of VSU and are fully subservient to the will of Washington. I guess Nuland and Sullivan need some basic military education, forget about Operations--too complex for them, a lot of math and history. So, here we are today. The admission by one of the West's generals recently about effectiveness of Russian Air Defense of 92-98%, in terms of combat aircraft it is 100% (in Russian) sends shivers down the spine of NATO pilots. And this is even before they encounter Russian Air Force which is world class. Just basic facts. I guess those "backward" Soviets knew their craft when creating the most advanced and networked air defense in the world and made a bet on the industrial might of the nation. Should I quote Lieutenant-General Klokotov again? I guess not. Too much to unpack, especially before flying back home. And I really miss my Pacific Northwest, its magnificent mountains and ocean.

I Will Never Fly SAS! Period!

When a Russian, like me, gets mad as hell for eradication of Scandinavians, who are not really friends of Russia, never were, I would say--take a note. A Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) just released an ad which is a concentrated pathetic declaration of a surrender and treason to North European culture. Judge for yourself:

So, there is nothing worth saving in Scandinavia, Eh? Deranged Swedish Social Democrat Mona Sahlin once uttered in 2002 speaking to Turkish youth organization:

I can not figure out what Swedish culture is. I think that's what makes many Swedes jealous of immigrant groups. You have a culture, an identity, a history, something that brings you together. And what do we have? We have Midsummer's Eve and such silly things.  

It is now an official policy of SAS--Scandinavians have no history and no right to exist. Well, I think SAS has no right to exist as a viable entity and I call on boycotting this pathetic company. European so called "left" either dies or immediate new Iron Curtain is needed along Russia's Western border to stop this political syphilis, a much more dangerous sickness than coronavirus, from spreading. Behold suicide of the nation(s). I can only state that I will never fly SAS (we, actually, had those plans), at least in Lufthansa they served Dewars and you can joke with flight attendants of both genders. 

But I want to make one prediction, before closing this post--IF, IF there will be a real resistance, a real counter-force per Newton's 3rd Law, and IF this counter-force originates beyond the framework of a regular political process (such as emergence of conservative and nationalist parties), IF there will be a spontaneous combustion, we may see a bloodshed in Europe which will, inevitably, bring about the rule of the most radical neo-Nazi forces to power and that may change the geopolitical outlook dramatically. I know the hatred inside Europe is building up and I cannot blame those Europeans who in the future may simply decide to stand their ground with weapons. Such as this old French couple in Calais which stated that they will die with their 1943 Mosin gun from Stalingrad but will not run (in Russian). This is Daria Aslamova (who wrote this report) with this gun in Calais at her friends' house. 

Sometimes you just have to fight.