Saturday, September 29, 2018

Just WOW.

The guy is a former SEAL, but evidently his background didn't include the course in basic "being slightly aware" of consequences of what he proposes. Especially being the Secretary of Interior in Trump Administration. 
As I stated not for once, the intellectual level of US political class was in tail-spin for a while and here is another living proof of that. Actually, already today Russia effectively is not dependent on Europe for its energy sales because China and East Asia in general are thirsty for Russian LNG and pipe gas. But if Mr. Secretary wants to try to "blockade" Russian ports (accidentally, I am not sure he understands that this constitutes the act of war), sure--let him try.
Russia is a one trick pony," Zinke said, explaining that its economy hinges on its ability to sell energy. "I believe the reason they are in the Middle East is they want to broker energy just like they do in eastern Europe, the southern belly of Europe."   
And here is the problem with most in US power-class, they believe in this with all their hearts. Russia, actually, is a two trick pony--she produces state-of-the-art weapon systems which define current geopolitical balance. But I am sure somebody already briefed Mr. former SEAL on that issue. This, plus the fact, that Russia actually does kill terrorists US supports and, unlike the US, suffered from terrorism on the order of magnitude more than US.  

Friday, September 28, 2018

It Was !5 Years Ago That Russians Understood That They Were Cooler, Way Cooler... And They Never Looked Back.

But it was even earlier (1991) that this video predicted the abandonment of this cool UK lifestyle. 

London, goodbye, I am an alien here, London, goodbye, time to go home...

Now, London, Goodbye...

You are a shithole....What's new... 

1975 Summer, Baku, Alexander Lerman...

I can not believe that it was real then.... Funny Guys (In reality Gay Guys--yeah, not that what you think). 

Yes, it was this LP in 1975...

Of course, 1977 Soviet Hit was about this city...

And now for our Czechoslovakian friends;-))

But, in the end, it is all about this: 


Ruslan Ostashko On Radiophotonics.

Speaking (in Russian) yesterday Ruslan Ostashko made a rather startling (starts at 2:50) statement:

In accordance to his (most likely his sources) info, Russia not only already has radiophotonics radar, we knew that device existed and was working in lab, but that it will be on trials on Su-35 as a platform before 2021 and that it will be a serial production device.  This is really a sensational, well, to a degree, info, which also explains why Chinese too, couple days ago, started talking about their own quantum radar. Well, folks, this is the end of "stealth" aviation as we know it. 

I guess I shouldn't explain what all this means. Ostashko uses example of Elon Musk as a snake oil peddler for a reason--talk and image are cheap, strategic stability is very very expensive and labor and intellect intensive. It fits quite well with Putin very recently calling for development of a completely new generation of weapons on new physical principles, such as this (in Russian). Obviously, such systems are being developed and now some information begins to trickle down to us, mere mortals. As I said before, we are witnessing a real revolution in military affairs (RMA) which changes modern battlefield in a profound and dramatic way. 

Well, looking at new Russian Strategic Missile Forces Academy one kinda gets the feel where it all goes, even aesthetics of it speaks volumes. 

Thursday, September 27, 2018

Why Mathematical Models Break Down. And Why Our Life Depends On That-5. What Is Probable.

So, consider now a simple problem (such as it is taught in War Colleges in Russia) for a simple tank (or even ship) scenario of shooting at target. This is an actual problem and it is excellent for demonstrating how non-linear war is. Recall, we already know a little bit about Osipov-Lanchester equations, whose solution is quadratic. So here it is:

In a combat the blue tank (ours) detects red tank (bogey) and the blue crew is given an order to dispose of bogey red tank in three shots max. You may apply this to, for now, ship on ship artillery duel.  Here immediately comes a scientific assumption—we, for the simplicity of experiment, assume that we already know the actual probabilities of each of the three shots. Those probabilities will be described by a much complex interaction (will see how in Salvo Model) of crew's level of training, ballistic computer properties and myriad other things, which are not the point now. So, say we know that the Probability P1 of the first shot hitting the target (red bogey) is 0.6, consequently P2=0.75 and P3=0.85.  We also know our crucial Omega, ω, a mathematical expectation, or, speaking in layman's lingo—the weighted average of hits required for disabling such type of a target as our red bogey. Say, our ω=1.2. So, for this particular tactical task what will be the probability of killing the (red) bastard? It is warranted to say that Probability of this "kill" is also THIS very important and dominating parameter which defines what is known as a decisive element of any commanding decision, be it on one-on-one battle or in a very complex, multi-level operation—Criterion of Effectiveness. Criterion of Effectiveness is, most of the time, a probability of killing enemy SOB thus completing the task and attaining our objective(s).

The solution is very simple:

For this kind of task the Probability of a "kill" Pk from three shots will be:
 We plug in our numbers and get:


So, the probability of out tank killing the evil bastard is very high and pleasant 0.95. Good job! Death to occupants! 

Of course, one can also go exactly 180 degrees and using desired probability, say I want to defeat SOBs who deployed their MLRS launcher about to blow us up with the probability of Pd = 0.97, which is THE Criterion of Effectiveness, and get the number of required forces (tanks, ships, missiles etc.), aka in Russia as Naryad Sil (literally—forces which are "dressed"). Of course, in this case one will have to consider such things as probabilities of, say, tanks hitting the enemy with the first shot. So, say in this case, we need to count how many tanks we need to blow enemy's missile launcher (MLRS) up and then repulse enemy's counterattack. If we consider that the probability of hitting the target with the first shot will be the same (for simplicity of demonstration) for all tanks and is Ps = 0.45, we, using good ol' formula (in real life it will be much more expanded and complex one, we'll get to that too):         

Lower case n here is this number of tanks which we have to solve for.  Solution is easy:                  

After using logarithms (not crucial for now) we get our n=5.87 or, rounding it up, 6 tanks to do the mission. 

These are simple examples. But, as I stated, these examples are easily applied to other forces and here is the trick. These things, and much more, used to be done by staffs—they still are doing this and models and mathematics they operate is very complex. Nowadays these are computer battlefield networks which do most of this job but here is the deal—commanding officer, operational staff continue to matter immensely and especially on a purely human level. Greatest military minds seldom calculated themselves what is above and much more, but secret to their success was having those highly developed synapses which allowed them, very often without calculator or logarithmic ruler, see a larger tactical and operational framework. They had this tactical-operational non-linear intuition which helped them time after time achieve success in a seemingly completely chaotic business of war. From that, also, all Combat Manuals, Tactical and Operational procedures were written. It is true when they say that military manuals are written in blood. War is probabilistic in nature—always was—and that is what many laymen fail to recognize, that excellent tactical and operational level officers are developed in a tremendously rigorous mathematical (and physics) fundamental sciences, which allow them to proceed further into an extremely complex world of modern military technology and its combat use. Without understanding of modern high tech combat and being able to predict outcomes within highly non-linear combat framework no serious discussion is possible...

To Be Continued...

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

Why Mathematical Models Break Down. And Why Our Life Depends On That-4 (An Operational Bypass On Syria).

You can find the last of this sequence here. Seeing some really crazy discussions and "concepts" floating all around internet regarding Russia's latest moves with S-300s in Syria, I feel, despite good advice of my publisher to stay the hell away from any mathematics, I have to make introduction to how operational level people think (you know, General Staffs, Staffs of Services etc.). I will rephrase an old proverb, that while amateurs discuss tactics, professionals discuss logistics to this: while amateurs discuss military technological gizmos, professionals calculate probabilities and Fractional Exchange Rates (FER). So, without much ado, let's immerse ourselves into wonderful world of REAL tactics and operations of the modern battlefield. We'll use only open sources (not that I know anything secret anymore, I am absolutely clueless) and very-very approximate assumed numbers. So here it is, my deepest bow to US Naval Postgraduate School in Monterrey, CA, Captain Wayne Hughes, Soviet/Russian authors and professors of Theory of Operational Research (Theory of Operations) and others who taught me (and others) how to fight modern war.  

Here is a pair of basic Salvo Equations which give a good primer for understanding the general approach to the war among professionals and I want to state immediately--all those cute coefficients, all those alphas and betas are highly classified numbers, but as I stated-will use assumed (or sometimes off the wall) numbers. It is also instructive to recall, as I once was treated to one Russian military "expert" so called "calculations", that war is probabilistic in nature but if a single missile has probability of hitting a target equaling 0.8, it doesn't mean that the salvo of two same missiles will necessarily have an overkill with probability surpassing 1. Yeah, 0.8+0.8 =1.6 right? Wrong, not in Theory of Probability. Albeit many internet military "experts" think that this is the case--it is not. First, probability can never be more than 1, since event can only happen or not, in between it can happen only with some probability. Secondly, there are very many ways things progress or expected to progress. I, once, made a short excursion  into mathematical expectations. Those are hugely important.

So, I will leave for you to ponder those very easy equations and the meaning of coefficients stated--those will be crucial in understanding why and how competent militaries approach the battle and plan for it. So, enjoy, if you may, all this mambo-jumbo, hopefully tomorrow I will have more time to delve into it and explain (very primitively) why Israel is very very unhappy now. 

To Be Continued...  

About Some Interesting News.

Vice Premier, former General and Ph.D in engineering, who today oversees Russian military-industrial complex, Yuri Borisov dropped an astonishing number which gives a little insight into the Russian machine-building complex and the general trend of Russian economy. At the all-Russian conference of the young scientists and specialists "The Future of Russian Machine Building", which was organized by famed (especially among Western intelligence services) Bauman's MGTU he stated this:  
Translation: A number of employees needed at the enterprises of Russian military-industrial complex is around half-a-million. This is a whole army, around 50 new professions are in demand. We are working on changing the trend of the cadres. We are concerned about the quality of this people, who will be capable to provide for the breakthroughs Vladimir Putin spoke about in his March address.  

Think about it: half-a-million just for the military-industrial complex. Boy, I wonder what all those lawyers, journalists, managers and other philosophy majors in Russia feel. I am being facetious, of course--I know exactly what they feel, some of them may even understand what is going on. After return of Crimea home, in 2014, on the wave of incredible patriotism and enthusiasm, in the anticipation of the Western sanctions, there was understanding among people who actually know Russia, which, in different forms, was worded like this: Russia doesn't need office plankton, she needs engineers, designers, CNC operators and programmers. I may add here: Russia needs tool and die makers, operators of complex computers-driven machinery, she needs composite materials and structures specialists and the list goes on, and on, and on. In all, Russia needs modern, cutting edge productive forces. And this is just Russian MIC. To illustrate: just today news of Egypt signing $1.3 billion contract with Transmashholding for hundreds of modern rail cars have made it to media (in Russian). It is 5 years worth of work for thousands upon thousands of highly qualified and well-paid labor.

You may have already guessed, that this purely civilian contract will require primarily electricians, mechanics, CNC operators, systems integrators--you name it. It will not require political "scientists", "economists" (especially with "degrees" from something like VShE), I know, my daughter got her BA in economics from UW and European (Milan) School of Economics. Let's put it this way--for what she does for living she needs only paper on her degree, the rest... well, I'll abstain. Transmashholding is a massive company and it is a civilian one. Russian MIC's contracts are on the order of magnitude larger. So, here is the deal--a generation, in fact-two, of Russians of 1990s and immediately after that, who I call the children of chaos and many of whom are either entering adult life or already are in the age category of 30-35, suddenly face a dilemma: what to do with their lives, especially if many of them went for so called "humanities" education or abstract economic degrees. I have news for them--virtually nobody is hiring them in Russia. As Russian joke goes: why one needs an economic degree? To shout in English, "this cash register is available" in McDonald's or Burger King.    

These people are victims (many innocent, others--not so much) of one of the most pervasive and malignant myths excreted by Western economic "science"--an idea of post-industrial economy. A utopian future in which well-paid and well-dressed office plankton, populating all those comfortable offices in skyscrapers strategizes, conceptionalizes, rationalizes, what have you, with the help of computers and robots, in their relentless effort to "improve" the world and get filthy rich while doing so. This si precisely a category of public which worships Elon Musk and forms lines at the Apple stores on the eve of a new model of their godly gadget released for the consumption of mindless hipsters. Obviously very few of them have any clue on what modern manufacturing, yes, robots and computers included, is. Well, we all know what happened with US economy, don't we? I am not going to get deeper into this issue, but Russia almost ended the same way, that is until so called "liberal" (more like libertarian) ideas sustained huge metaphysical defeat and economic sanity started to slowly filter back, with Russian industries not only recovering but prospering in the process, even with non stop (it is the 60th since 2011) avalanche of Western economic sanctions. 

And here is the main point. Putin reads from the Soviet book of industrialization. Those who have weak nerves or too impressionable, or studied Russian history from Solzhenitsyn or Anne Applebaum (or R. Conquest) should stop reading now and go to some other website or blog. Now I continue. Let me quote myself from the draft of who knows what (wink, wink):  
New Deal pre-WWII America was still a nation which had to deal with a 1937-1938 recession which dropped industrial production catastrophically by 32%, GDP Contacted 10% and unemployment remained prohibitively high at 20%. The United Sates were simply in a very bad shape. It was WWII, in the end, which resolved the issue of much needed real recovery from the Great Depression. The recovery was spectacular: by 1942 the output grew by 49% fueled by the steady inflow of gold from Europe, including from the Soviet Union, and by military buildup. Full employment was achieved.
You may verify my data here, after all it is by none other than Federal Reserve very own history specialists. Let us recall now, what was happening in the Soviet Union at that time. Easy--unprecedented economic growth, which made country ready for the war. All that growth was achieved in a real industrial and agricultural sectors, not in breeding philosophy professors, managers of expensive boutiques and shopping consultants. So, I am kinda wondering, before I go, why Maxim Oreshkin, himself a product of utterly liberal VShE suddenly goes very public on record with being dissatisfied with the (slower than planned) speed of Russia's dedollarization. Of course, parallels with Stalin's Industrialization are very tentative--modern Russia is a different country but real Re-Industrialization is what Russian people were calling for since Vladimir Putin emerged from his incognito status as Russia's statesman whom Russian people started to believe. 

To Be Continued...