So, consider now a simple
problem (such as it is taught in War Colleges in Russia) for a simple tank (or
even ship) scenario of shooting at target. This is an actual problem and it is
excellent for demonstrating how non-linear war is. Recall, we already know a
little bit about Osipov-Lanchester equations, whose solution is quadratic. So
here it is:
In a combat the blue tank
(ours) detects red tank (bogey) and the blue crew is given an order to dispose
of bogey red tank in three shots max. You may apply this to, for now, ship on
ship artillery duel. Here immediately
comes a scientific assumption—we, for the simplicity of experiment, assume that
we already know the actual probabilities of each of the three shots. Those
probabilities will be described by a much complex interaction (will see how in
Salvo Model) of crew's level of training, ballistic computer properties and myriad
other things, which are not the point now. So, say we know that the Probability
P1 of the first shot hitting the target (red bogey) is 0.6, consequently
P2=0.75 and P3=0.85. We also know our crucial Omega, ω, a
mathematical expectation, or, speaking in layman's lingo—the weighted average
of hits required for disabling such type of a target as our red bogey. Say, our
ω=1.2. So, for this particular tactical task what will be the probability of
killing the (red) bastard? It is warranted to say that Probability of this "kill"
is also THIS very important and dominating parameter which defines what is
known as a decisive element of any commanding decision, be it on one-on-one
battle or in a very complex, multi-level operation—Criterion of Effectiveness.
Criterion of Effectiveness is, most of the time, a probability of killing enemy
SOB thus completing the task and attaining our objective(s).
The solution is very
simple:
For this kind of task the
Probability of a "kill" Pk
from three shots will be:
We plug in our numbers
and get:
So,
the probability of out tank killing the evil bastard is very high and pleasant
0.95. Good job! Death to occupants!
Of
course, one can also go exactly 180 degrees and using desired probability, say
I want to defeat SOBs who deployed their MLRS launcher about to blow us up with the probability of Pd = 0.97, which is THE Criterion of Effectiveness, and get
the number of required forces (tanks, ships, missiles etc.), aka in Russia as
Naryad Sil (literally—forces which are "dressed"). Of course, in this
case one will have to consider such things as probabilities of, say, tanks
hitting the enemy with the first shot. So, say in this case, we need to count
how many tanks we need to blow enemy's missile launcher (MLRS) up and then
repulse enemy's counterattack. If we consider that the probability of hitting
the target with the first shot will be the same (for simplicity of
demonstration) for all tanks and is Ps
= 0.45, we, using good ol' formula (in real life it will be much more expanded
and complex one, we'll get to that too):
Lower
case n
here is this number of tanks which we have to solve for. Solution is easy:
After using logarithms (not
crucial for now) we get our n=5.87 or, rounding it up, 6 tanks to do the mission.
These are simple examples. But, as I stated,
these examples are easily applied to other forces and here is the trick. These
things, and much more, used to be done by staffs—they still are doing this and models and
mathematics they operate is very complex. Nowadays these are computer battlefield
networks which do most of this job but here is the deal—commanding officer,
operational staff continue to matter immensely and especially on a purely human level. Greatest military
minds seldom calculated themselves what is above and much more, but secret to
their success was having those highly developed synapses which allowed them, very often
without calculator or logarithmic ruler, see a larger tactical and operational framework. They had this tactical-operational non-linear intuition which helped them time
after time achieve success in a seemingly completely chaotic business of war. From that, also, all Combat Manuals, Tactical and Operational procedures were written. It is true when they say that military manuals are written in blood. War
is probabilistic in nature—always was—and that is what many laymen fail to
recognize, that excellent tactical and operational level officers are developed in a
tremendously rigorous mathematical (and physics) fundamental sciences, which
allow them to proceed further into an extremely complex world of modern military
technology and its combat use. Without understanding of modern high tech combat and being able to predict outcomes within highly non-linear combat framework no serious discussion is possible...
To Be Continued...
