They Should Have Listened ...

 ... to me. 

Trump administration officials told lawmakers during a closed-door briefing on Capitol Hill Tuesday that Iran’s Shahed attack drones represent a major challenge and US air defenses will not be able to intercept them all, according to a source in the briefing. The drones, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine acknowledged, are posing a bigger problem than anticipated, two sources in the briefing told CNN. They are known to fly low and slow – a feature that makes them more able to evade air defenses than ballistic missiles. Another source familiar with the briefing said the officials made an attempt to downplay concerns about the drones and noted that Gulf state partners had been stockpiling interceptors.

Well, these are not just "one-way drones", CNN morons do not even know that those are loitering munitions. As we now have more and more visual evidence, both missile and drone strikes are dealing a major damage to US bases and critical technical facilities and assets such as yet another THAAD's AN-TPY-2 Radar destroyed, plus a two AN/GSC-52B of Navy's satcomms are goners now and Donnie's "plan" (Israeli plan, really) seems to go nowhere. But the US air defense is a whole other story. For the first time since Vietnam the US is encountering people who shoot back and it hurts. 

Larry gives a good math of US AD inventory: 

Note that I am assuming that the entire inventory of US Patriot missiles have been deployed to Israel and US bases in the region. That is a false assumption because there are Patriot missile batteries with a full complement of missiles in other theaters. At present there are three Patriot battalions permanently assigned/forward-deployed to INDOPACOM (e.g., in South Korea/Japan/Guam areas, like 35th ADA Brigade and 1-1 ADA at Kadena); EUCOM has one Patriot battalion assigned (e.g., units in Germany like Baumholder/Ansbach areas, supporting NATO/Eastern flank). The US Army has 15 Patriot battalions total (14 fully available as of mid-2025, with one in modernization), each typically consisting of 4–6 batteries (a battery is the firing unit with launchers/radars). A Patriot battery (also called a fire unit) typically includes 6–8 launchers (Launching Stations), though configurations vary by operator, mission, and launcher type (e.g., M903 for modern U.S. systems). If we assume that the four Patriot battalions have four batteries each, with 72 missiles per battery, we get a total of 1,152 missiles that must be subtracted from the maximum possible number deployed to the Middle East — i.e., the actual inventory, using the most conservative estimate, is 1,221. That means the US inventory of PAC-3 MSE missiles, using the assumptions above that Iran is firing 60 ballistic missiles per day, the supply of missiles will run out in 10 days. This is why I assert that Donald Trump is out of touch with reality.

We know that Donnie is out of touch as is US Secretary of War--the guy with "degree" in Politics from Princeton and pseudo-military course from ROTC and who still didn't graduate from the mentality of at best platoon CO. His "combat experience" in Afghanistan being worthless in matters of REAL war and stand-off weaponry flying at you. 

Now about terrorist 404 attack on Russian gas transport in Med. 

Very typical of UK and their curators of 404--cowards hiding behind all kinds of "stories", so this will continue for a while, because terrorism is the extent of UK and European in general military "capabilities". 

In SMO news. 404 continues to get it, big time. Here are some views of Geranium flying in Poltava to visit dwindling energy infrastructure of 404. 

Demolishing of 404 continues and for those people who repeat ad nauseam about some "object lessons for Russia" about "negotiating" with the US. I want to repeat--study the subject (Russia that is) first and what and how she does in order for you not to become a victim of "political scientists" demagoguery. Strategy is a very complex statecraft and no, Russians know everything and more about combined West in general, and the US in particular. Do NOT delude yourself with headlines from media and TG channels by amateurs. 

P.S. I should be at Mario Nawfal's Roundtable in an hour or so. 

A Reminder.

Especially for people who still do not understand what civilization is. Civilization is a culture writ large (c). Obviously, any recognition by me of myself and majority of Russians as related to Western Civilization and being European people, with all that it entails is always met with consternation. But then again, most of those people watch Mel Gibson's Apocalypto as merely an adventure, not a profoundly important cultural reference. So, in order for me not to explain, again, what Civilization is, here is, again, and again, Russian Patriarch Kirill from the last year. 

But what does he know, you know, this Patriarch, when describing the essence of the conflict between Russia and what Europe has become in the XX century, right? I will repeat again--contemporary Europe has nothing to do with the European Civilization which by default IS Western Civilization, it is, in the end, the succession of nominal Romes, of which Vladimir Putin hinted--he couldn't say it openly, it would have given aneurism to DNC, Brussels and all kinds of cucks, who populate Europe today. Listen attentively, again starting at 35 minutes, to what is being said and what is being strongly implied:

If anyone have issues understanding WHAT the concern is here, I may only expand on the grand-strategic tasks for Russia and this is preservation of civilization. European one, Western Europe betrayed it. 

Per Подсвинки (literally Sub pigs)))--it is a young pig between 4 to 9 months old. That's what contemporary European "elites" are. Larry gives some good spread on that:

And again, Russians are European people and that is why Civilization is a culture writ large. 

I guess you can immediately see in this video behavioral patterns of people from Thailand or Saudi Arabia. Right? I guess Russians have a "complex of inferiority" celebrating Christmas. 

Very Good Talk ...

Colonel Davis and Larry. 

Larry Provides...

 ... an excellent summary of Israel's, and the US, defeat and possible retaliation by Iran. 

Joe Biden has sent the head of U.S. Central Command to Israel to coordinate defenses and possible responses to an Iranian attack. But the ability of the U.S. and Israel to respond with an air campaign has hit some roadblocks:

Qatar and Kuwait notified the US that they will not allow bases on their territory to be used for attacks against Iran – diplomatic sources. Turkey informed the United States that they will not be allowed to use their airspace against Iran.

All of this is taking place against a growing realization in Tel Aviv and Washington that their respective tactics for dealing with Hamas and the Houthis respectively have been a debacle. Israeli columnist, Chaim Levinson, dropped this bomb in the pages of Haaretz — Saying What Can’t Be Said: Israel Has Been Defeated – a Total Defeat.

Read the whole thing at Larry's blog. Everyday continues to be a wowser...

I Liked Larry's Eisenhower's Analogy.

Excellent talk with Judge. 

By now only idiots from "Institute for NOT Study of War" didn't get the fact of why Russians sat into Strategic Defense (it doesn't mean that you do not go on offensive). Why chasing the enemy when it comes to you, and you kill it, is an excellent mode of conducting a war. As I am ON RECORD, Washington doesn't have a concept of all state's institutions working as a whole based on a coherent strategy and contingency planning. Yeah, I know, "strategy" is such a popular word.

Larry Nails It.

Exactly! Will China send weapons to Russia.

Yes. I think they will. But not because Russia is running out of shells and rockets. Nope. I think China wants a chance to field test some of its weaponry and drones against a foe that shoots back in order to see how they perform in a combat environment. Firing artillery or surface-to-air missiles on a closed range does not compare with lighting them up on a bona fide battlefield.

Real General Staffs salivate at the opportunity to try their technology and fighting doctrines on a real battlefield. It is all about those precious war correlates, performance data and its statistical analysis which allow to constantly update tactical and operational manuals, to shape technical requirements, which, in the end, translate into crucial advantages over the enemy. 

We, who have some background in military-intelligence affairs, already know about dismal performance of the NATO weaponry, which cannot be fixed, because it is systemic, and this fact inevitably translates from operational reality into the strategic and political one. Any unbiased observer can see the agony in Washington precisely because of that, while Chinese who are present (rumor has it) on some level in Moscow, also were learning to fight together with Russians as single joint units and formations as early as Vostok 2018 maneuvers.  

The signs of Washington's agony? Here comes this LOL)) Maria already explained what current US "diplomacy" is--Blinken trying to catch (ambush, actually) Lavrov in lobbies. Now State Department responds...

ВАШИНГТОН, 2 мар - РИА Новости. Госсекретарь Энтони Блинкен в ходе беседы с главой МИД РФ Сергеем Лавровым поднял волнующие Вашингтон темы, поэтому США не станут за нее извиняться, сказал официальный представитель госдепа Нед Прайс. "Я знаю, наши российские коллеги пытаются наделать из этого шума. Но с нашей стороны важно отметить, что это был короткий контакт, а не полноценная двусторонняя встреча. Но в более широком смысле, мы не станем извиняться за действия в наших интересах", - сказал Прайс. Так он ответил на вопрос о том, по чьей инициативе состоялся контакт. Ранее в МИД РФ сообщили, что о беседе попросил Блинкен. 

Translation: WASHINGTON, March 2 - RIA Novosti. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, during a conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, raised topics of concern to Washington, so the United States will not apologize for her, said State Department spokesman Ned Price. "I know our Russian colleagues are trying to make a fuss out of this. But on our part, it is important to note that this was a short contact, and not a full-fledged bilateral meeting. But in a broader sense, we will not apologize for acting in our interests," Price said. That is how he answered the question on whose initiative the contact took place. Earlier, the Russian Foreign Ministry reported that Blinken had asked for a conversation.

 

So, Blinken did ambush Lavrov. I guess being schlimazels comes naturally to the modern crop of the US "diplomats". God, how the mighty have fallen. Once upon a time one could at least reason with American diplomats and have a meaningful conversation with them. Evidently, not anymore. But, what can I say, sic transit gloria mundi. The American mundi, that is, aka Pax Americana. In conclusion, a little bit of a strategic boohoo:

Disgruntled airlines have said that Chinese carriers have an “unfair advantage” because they can fly over Russia, cutting time and costs. A raft of airlines including British Airways, Swiss and Virgin Atlantic have recently announced that they are either restarting flights to China or increasing the number due to global travel restrictions relaxing. Western airlines have been banned from crossing Russia since the invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 but Chinese carriers are still free to fly shorter routes over the territory. “Between Paris and Seoul, it can add up to three hours in flight time. If you’ve got a Chinese carrier that is flying over Russia, they’ve got an unfair advantage over us,” Ben Smith, chief executive of Air France-KLM, told the Financial Times. Finnair chief executive Topi Manner also spoke with the publication and said that airlines were at a “significant” disadvantage. Finnair was forced to rethink its flights to Asia after formerly relying on routes across the north of Russia to reach countries like Japan.

What can I say. They wanted it and now they complain of getting unfair disadvantage, cry me a river. Or as they say--well, too bad--you reap what you sow. 

Good Points By...

Colonel MacGregor. 

And Larry about 404 Intel issues:

The new head of the SBU, Vasily Malyuk, was the number two guy before ascending to the top spot. I suspect the British and US intelligence officials on scene may be more comfortable with Malyuk. Yet, scapegoating Bakanov for leaks of information that ostensibly led to such crushing blows as the defeat of the mercenary camp at the Yavorovsky training ground or the recent blow of the missile strike that hit the meeting of the Ukrainian Air Force command with foreign military in Vinnytsia, does not absolve Malyk of responsibility. I have do doubt that Russia’s FSB penetrated Ukraine’s SBU and had several agents passing secrets along. However, we cannot rule out the possibility that Russia’s intelligence officers also fed false information to the Ukrainians that made innocent SBU officers appear to be collaborators or traitors. Instead of bringing order to an already suspect organization, Zelensky’s latest move is likely to spawn further chaos and distrust. Any SBU officer with a modicum of moxie will be looking over their shoulder wondering if they can trust their superiors.

All good points. Plus, to add to my previous post--another "professional", Admiral Stavridis. Hilarious forecasts from him. Embarrassing, especially against the background of professionalism of MacGregor and Larry Johnson. 

Denis Pushilin And Kharkov. Larry On NATO Support.

I don't have the link yet, but yesterday Denis Pushilin, the Head of Donetsk PR has been heard as saying that Kharkov and all of Kharkov Oblast need to be liberated. Pushilin is a very noticeable figure as, for now at least, the Head of independent and recognized by Russia DPR, but also, de facto a fully integrated Russia's political figure now. Very important at that and fully coordinated with Kremlin. So, when figure of such prominence speaks aloud on such matters then we should pay attention. This matters in so far as our assumptions on territorial goals of SMO are concerned. 

Now, three EU stooges talking about the "end of conflict" in 404 are yet another indicator of a desperation setting in and feeble attempts to save face in a face of inevitable result. 

The German chancellor condemned what he called the “unimaginable cruelty” of the conflict in Ukraine, during a visit to the Kiev suburb of Irpin on Thursday. Olaf Scholz was joined in Kiev by French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, and Romanian President Klaus Iohannis. “The brutal destruction of this city is a memorial: this war must end,” Scholz wrote on Twitter. Irpin saw intense fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces in the first weeks of the conflict, following Russia’s attack in late February. Moscow withdrew its troops from the Kiev region and some other Ukrainian territories in early April, calling it a goodwill gesture aimed at aiding peace talks. The negotiations have since stalled.

Scholz is an idiot not just as a politician but in purely human terms, which is expected from average European "lefty", but even he can see the writing on the wall. Larry Johnson gave a good write up on the matter yesterday.

It appears that Michael Jackson’s Moonwalk is being performed by French President Emmanuel Macron and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. First up, Macron. You do not have to speak French to understand that his previous position of standing firm against Russia has changed and he believes Ukraine should cut a deal with Russia to save itself. 

What also has to be noted, however, is the fact that we may be past the "make a deal" point and Pushilin's words give some credence to all that. We'll know soon enough. For those, however, who "rely" on all those Yuri Podolyaka types and other fanboys "analysts" who call, nay, demand "mobilization", here is Peskov verbatim today:

МОСКВА, 16 июня. /ТАСС/. Пресс-секретарь президента России Дмитрий Песков назвал лживыми информационными вбросами публикации в западных СМИ о том, что власти РФ якобы могут объявить о дополнительном призыве в войска. "Нет", - ответил он в четверг ТАСС на вопрос, планирует ли президент России Владимир Путин в своем выступлении на ПМЭФ 17 июня объявлять о мобилизации. Комментируя соответствующие западные публикации о том, что власти РФ якобы могут объявить о дополнительном призыве в войска, Песков сказал: "Это лживые информационные вбросы".

Translation: MOSCOW, 16 June. /TASS/. The press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov called the publications in the Western media that the Russian authorities could allegedly announce an additional conscription to the troops as false informational stuffing. "No," he answered TASS on Thursday when asked if Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to announce mobilization in his speech at SPIEF on June 17. Commenting on the relevant Western publications that the Russian authorities could allegedly announce an additional conscription to the troops, Peskov said: "These are false information stuffing."

I guess, I rest my case.

P.S. Announcement: I am scheduled tomorrow to do, now traditional, hour and a half (about that) with PolitWera and Colonel (officer-operator of the Central Apparatus of Russian MoD) Vladimir Trukhan. It should go live at VK at 10:00 AM Pacific Day Time and later Wera will upload it to Rutube. 

The link should appear later.

Plans Are Changing For The US. Larry Talks To Eva.

Plans are always changing, that is why General Staffs plan 24/7, non-stop. The US military doesn't know what real war is in which US servicemen are subjected to fire impact (ognevoe vosdeistvie) which comes from the enemy which has the means to shoot back, and effectively at that. The only advantage the US has now is the fact that its C4ISR beyond the territory of 404 is not touched by Russians yet. In real war with Russia the US would have its C4ISR disrupted and would lose a lot of its space-based assets. But we are not there yet, thankfully, and hopefully will not get there. But for the US the struggle in Ukraine is existential and unfolding military catastrophe for VSU reflects directly onto the US, which still reels from military humiliation in Afghanistan and, let's be very straight forward, pathetic performance of genuine US military technology supplied to Ukraine. Now this new crisis. Severodonetsk was taken by Russian Forces as Kadyrov reported (in Russian). 

So, what are you going to do, if you are CIA, State Department or Pentagon? Right, do what you always do, continue to support your very own SOBs and, preferably, widen the conflict. That's the "change of plans". The only way the US can "widen" the conflict is to continue to provide weapons to Kiev regime and hence the talk about Harpoons and now HIMARS. As I stated on a number of occasions, these deliveries will not change the outcome, but if HIMARS will be used against Russia's territory, we may have some very serious escalation by Russia and some of it will be very nasty for the US. Keep in mind, the US has very many assets and bases around the world. All of them are within the range of Russia's stand-off weapons and Russia will retaliate directly against both NATO members who delivered weapons, such as Danish Harpoons, and most US military bases will be under a direct threat of retaliation. 

And here is the issue: even Iran's retaliation against the US bases in 2020, after assassination of General Soleimani,  was an eye opener for the US. Russia's retaliation will be much more devastating and it may go without prior warning to the US side unlike it was done by Iran in 2020. But here is another issue: ATACMS and PrSM munitions for HIRAMS have ranges of 300 and 500 kilometers respectively. These are precisely the types of weapons which such AD systems as S-400, S-300V4 and later versions of S-300 have been created for. Putting aside already described retaliation by Russia, in case the US decides to pursue this suicidal "policy", which will not have any effect on the military outcome of SMO, which already ticking away towards US geopolitical defeat, even mitigation of the impact of such weapons by Russian AD will add weight to already well demonstrated US military, especially C2, and technological ineptness in 404 and the latest moves are nothing more than desperate convulsions in an attempt to prolong 404 (and own) agony. 

I am on record, Pentagon will not out-think Russia's General Staff no matter how they try and the US will continue on the path of "escalation" until it completely discredits itself militarily and technologically. US cannot afford Afghanistan 2.0 in Ukraine, because in absolute terms v. 2.0 is not applicable, because what is brewing in 404 will make Afghanistan 1.0's humiliation look like peanuts. Well, I guess the cards are dealt but Russia knows the game. 

Admiral Gorshkov today hit the surface target 1000 kilometers away by Zircon:

And it is just another demonstration of a huge and increasing gap in weapons which also is one of the major drivers behind US suicidal attempts to "fight" a proxy war in Ukraine. To do anything to get Russia mired in some sort of resources-consuming affair, not noticing that it is the US who loses both resources and status being involved, yet again, in the war it cannot competently execute. This also is reflected in today's interview of Vladimir Yermakov of Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (in Russian) about a dialog between the US and Russia on strategic stability and, especially, surprise, surprise, the US desperate desire not to allow Russia to have RS-28 Sarmat (too late for that) and Poseidon. In related news, everyone knows that the US is not agreement capable, if not altogether, governable, so Yermakov and his team are doing their motions. You know, "the forms must be obeyed". 

Here is also a wonderful interview of Eva Bartlett with Larry Johnson. Strongly recommend.

         

This is the type of journalism which is sorely missing in the modern West today. So, this is the primer for Saturday.

What's The Deal With The US Four-Star Generals?

I don't know. One, certainly, cannot suspect General Barry McCaffrey in cowardice. He is a distinguished combat officer, but this...

Don't they care at all about their professional integrity and honor? And he is not the only one, here is another guy:

  

Petraeus cannot possibly know what the real cost of taking Mariupol is, because only Russia's General Staff knows it. US main-stream media military "experts" long ago chose using Ukie non-stop propaganda BS and their sublimation of a severe professional jealousy and butt-hurt over professional integrity and this parade of military losers, who didn't win shit in their life, and who are still reeling from Afghanistan humiliation, continues non-stop. 

They know what the US Army record of the last 50+ years looks like, they also know what military failures they are and they cannot contain their rage from experiencing the contrast between the two very different militaries and how they fight their respective wars. Even their "very own SOBs" in VSU are nothing more than Nazi war criminals who are singing like birds now both about NATO involvement in crimes against humanity in Donbass and about biolabs. Worst of all for them is well-documented fact of the US (and some NATO) military being directly involved in C4ISR for VSU which reflects extremely poorly on Pentagon's (always grossly exaggerated) reputation.  Hence this:

It would be really difficult to believe that the United States is not in a proxy war with Russia if reports that it plans to send anti-ship missiles to Ukraine are true. In fact, the State Department did not exactly deny this exclusive report from Reuters that Washington was readying to share the weapons capability to help “defeat Russia’s naval blockade…amid concerns more powerful weapons that could sink Russian warships would intensify the conflict.” “As the conflict is changing, so too is our military assistance to deliver the critical capabilities Ukraine needs for today’s fight as Russia’s forces engage in a renewed offensive in eastern Ukraine,” a State spokesperson said on Friday. The only thing that is being directly denied are assertions by the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs adviser, who tweeted Friday that “the US is preparing a plan to destroy the [Russian] Black Sea Fleet. The effective work of the Ukrainians on [Russian] warships convinced [the US] to prepare a plan to unblock the [Ukrainian] ports. Deliveries of powerful anti-ship weapons are being discussed.” 

Well, Vlahos has been around D.C. for a long time and she surely should know that those "decisions" are not anymore dictated by some military necessity--not to mention the fact that those missiles will not change much militarily for Russia, and Ukraine--but that ANY US Administration in the last 20 years was in a full blown crusade mode against not just Russia, but Russians as people and it is driven by racial and cultural hatred and deeply hidden but not well contained complex of inferiority which exacerbates with the economic decline of the US (and combined West) and Russia taking the lead in forming new geopolitical reality. So, a lot of impetus behind desperate steps by D.C. is simply irrational. There are rumors now that the US considers supplying Patriot AD complexes to 404. The immediate question is who is going to be manning them when they will be annihilated? 

It has to be understood clearly that the US, not taking anything from the entrepreneurial, industrial, creative and scientific genius of the American people, was a main beneficiary of once in a lifetime pure luck in WW II. But the same as you cannot substitute actual annihilation of the most of Ukrainian Air Force with many shots from the video-games, you also cannot buy military history. And no US general ever fought in defense of his motherland against the best of the best, defeating them time after time. You just cannot buy it, even if you want to convince yourself that General Lee was "equal" of Napoleon (he never was even in the same universe) or that Patton fought REAL Wehrmacht at the zenith of its power, Russians did and defeated it. The United States was supposed to be this savior, a providential blessing upon the world, but the immediate benefits of the post-WW II restoration pretty much ran out by the year 2000 and the wobbling then finally resulted in the economic calamity which is only now begins to be felt, slightly. It is getting to number 11 pretty fast. 

For the United States the struggle is existential, it is also with its own chimeras of the past. I am on record, reality is a bitch, it eventually bites and it hurts like hell if you are not ready. Plus, you cannot fight it even with the most elaborate BS narratives, but that, it seems, is the only thing in which the US four-star generals are good at. Fighting real wars and not parading themselves as sore-losers, not much. Unless, of course, one begins to move goal posts and redefine all known truisms of military science. I know, I can only only imagine how it hurts to understand that after the 8 years of US training and support those who the CIA and Pentagon hoped to kill so many actual Russians (killing children and raping women was accepted as collateral damage) have had their ass kicked and humiliated by grossly numerically inferior Russian force. That's gotta hurt a lot. Here are some other "skills" US and NATO "taught" those animals. Here is incomparable Eva Bartlett.

In conclusion, Here is Larry's yesterday's take:

Mariupol’s Final Ukrainian Chapter, Russia Writes New book

Pay close attention to a video of good ol' Russian BM-21 MLRS doing its job. That is how the real war looks like. But I am sure General Petraeus knows all about it, right? Nah, I am being facetious.