I Don't Know What's The Deal.

But there is very little doubt that the US illegitimately occupies part of Syria's territory and conducts a favorite business of training terrorists. 

BEIRUT (AP) — A strike Thursday by a suspected Iranian-made drone killed a U.S. contractor and wounded six other Americans in northeast Syria, and U.S. forces retaliated with airstrikes on sites in Syria used by groups affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, the Pentagon said. Activists said the U.S. bombing killed at least four people. While it’s not the first time the U.S. and Iran have traded strikes in Syria, the attack and the U.S. response threaten to upend recent efforts to deescalate tensions across the wider Middle East, whose rival powers have made steps toward détente in recent days after years of turmoil. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in a statement that the American intelligence community had determined the drone was of Iranian origin, but offered no other immediate evidence to support the claim. The drone hit a coalition base in the northeast Syrian city of Hasaka. The wounded included five American service members and a U.S. contractor.

I don't know who sent the "message", but this event is a great testament to a military fallacy of the American bases around the world, because not only they will continue to lose the "power projection" value but will continue to increase their value as fat and mostly indefensible targets against modern battlefield delivery systems. Nobody in their own mind would believe that US air defense systems such as Patriot PAC3 can handle a serious salvo of even relatively unsophisticated subsonic means of delivery. 

Meanwhile butt-hurt BSer Sebastien Roblin "reports" based on propaganda doctored "data" from 404 that Russia... finally ran out of tanks and reactivated T-54/55 ones. 

Russia is dusting off the cobwebs from military deep storage facilities in the country’s Far East, for the first time railing un-upgraded Cold War T-54B tanks westward, possibly bound for Ukraine. Now, a video of the T-54s transported by rail has surfaced. 

What uneducated hack Roblin doesn't know, because with degree in "conflict resolution" and "social and global studies" you can not know anything of value, is that Russia was using older T-54/55 since War in Chechnya not for tank operations but as a very helpful  artillery units for... drum roll... block posts, thus increasing their combat stability and as a good caliber response in case of attacks on numerous block posts. Generally Western pseudo-academic fields in "strategic studies", "conflict resolution" or "foreign relations" produce unemployable office plankton with minimal skills even for 7/11 janitor, but when you are also getting paid by Ukies, what kind of "reporting" one provides becomes abundantly clear. In general, SMO exposed all, without exception, US MSM and popular "alternative" media as uneducated hacks and unprofessional losers, including a large portion of the US "military experts" with hefty C.V.s in "fighting" in Iraq and Afghanistan, but with minimal expertise in modern wars and combined arms operations of scale. 

But that brings us to issue of military education in the US and the new crop of America's present and future military leaders. I wrote about it before and quoted Tim Bakken:

Academic standards are also nonexistent. I believe this trend started approximately ten years ago, and it has continued to get worse. West Point has stated standards for academic expectations and performance, but they are ignored. Cadets routinely fail multiple classes and they are not separated at the end-of-semester Academic Boards. Their professors recommend “Definitely Separate,” but those recommendations are totally disregarded. I recently taught a cadet who failed four classes in one semester (including mine), in addition to several she had failed in previous semesters, and she was retained at the Academy. As a result, professors have lost hope and faith in the entire Academic Board process. It has been made clear that cadets can fail a multitude of classes and they will not be separated. Instead, when they fail (and they do to a staggering extent), the Dean simply throws them back into the mix and expects the faculty to somehow drag them through the academic program until they manage to earn a passing grade. 

And this is one of very many testimonies of a collapse of professional military education in the US. 

In related news, I spoke today with Vera and famous Russian REAL war reporter Marat Khairullin--the rough estimate of just wounded in and around Bakhmut is roughly 20,000. As Marat says, who spends most of his days at the front line and communicates with serious tactical and operational level officers, they all are unanimous--combat medicine in VSU ceased to exist several months ago, and just inside Bakhmut today there are more than 2,000 wounded who still cannot get even stabilization procedures. That means they will be dead in a day or two. Reality of the 404 "offensive" is absolutely not what is being portrayed by Western media. This is not from some shitty TG channels, this is from people of repute and first hand operational (forget tactical) knowledge of the combat zone. Yes, Marat is a constant presence,  from the front lines, on Russian major TV networks. So, here is your SitRep of sorts for Friday.

Plans Are Changing For The US. Larry Talks To Eva.

Plans are always changing, that is why General Staffs plan 24/7, non-stop. The US military doesn't know what real war is in which US servicemen are subjected to fire impact (ognevoe vosdeistvie) which comes from the enemy which has the means to shoot back, and effectively at that. The only advantage the US has now is the fact that its C4ISR beyond the territory of 404 is not touched by Russians yet. In real war with Russia the US would have its C4ISR disrupted and would lose a lot of its space-based assets. But we are not there yet, thankfully, and hopefully will not get there. But for the US the struggle in Ukraine is existential and unfolding military catastrophe for VSU reflects directly onto the US, which still reels from military humiliation in Afghanistan and, let's be very straight forward, pathetic performance of genuine US military technology supplied to Ukraine. Now this new crisis. Severodonetsk was taken by Russian Forces as Kadyrov reported (in Russian). 

So, what are you going to do, if you are CIA, State Department or Pentagon? Right, do what you always do, continue to support your very own SOBs and, preferably, widen the conflict. That's the "change of plans". The only way the US can "widen" the conflict is to continue to provide weapons to Kiev regime and hence the talk about Harpoons and now HIMARS. As I stated on a number of occasions, these deliveries will not change the outcome, but if HIMARS will be used against Russia's territory, we may have some very serious escalation by Russia and some of it will be very nasty for the US. Keep in mind, the US has very many assets and bases around the world. All of them are within the range of Russia's stand-off weapons and Russia will retaliate directly against both NATO members who delivered weapons, such as Danish Harpoons, and most US military bases will be under a direct threat of retaliation. 

And here is the issue: even Iran's retaliation against the US bases in 2020, after assassination of General Soleimani,  was an eye opener for the US. Russia's retaliation will be much more devastating and it may go without prior warning to the US side unlike it was done by Iran in 2020. But here is another issue: ATACMS and PrSM munitions for HIRAMS have ranges of 300 and 500 kilometers respectively. These are precisely the types of weapons which such AD systems as S-400, S-300V4 and later versions of S-300 have been created for. Putting aside already described retaliation by Russia, in case the US decides to pursue this suicidal "policy", which will not have any effect on the military outcome of SMO, which already ticking away towards US geopolitical defeat, even mitigation of the impact of such weapons by Russian AD will add weight to already well demonstrated US military, especially C2, and technological ineptness in 404 and the latest moves are nothing more than desperate convulsions in an attempt to prolong 404 (and own) agony. 

I am on record, Pentagon will not out-think Russia's General Staff no matter how they try and the US will continue on the path of "escalation" until it completely discredits itself militarily and technologically. US cannot afford Afghanistan 2.0 in Ukraine, because in absolute terms v. 2.0 is not applicable, because what is brewing in 404 will make Afghanistan 1.0's humiliation look like peanuts. Well, I guess the cards are dealt but Russia knows the game. 

Admiral Gorshkov today hit the surface target 1000 kilometers away by Zircon:

And it is just another demonstration of a huge and increasing gap in weapons which also is one of the major drivers behind US suicidal attempts to "fight" a proxy war in Ukraine. To do anything to get Russia mired in some sort of resources-consuming affair, not noticing that it is the US who loses both resources and status being involved, yet again, in the war it cannot competently execute. This also is reflected in today's interview of Vladimir Yermakov of Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (in Russian) about a dialog between the US and Russia on strategic stability and, especially, surprise, surprise, the US desperate desire not to allow Russia to have RS-28 Sarmat (too late for that) and Poseidon. In related news, everyone knows that the US is not agreement capable, if not altogether, governable, so Yermakov and his team are doing their motions. You know, "the forms must be obeyed". 

Here is also a wonderful interview of Eva Bartlett with Larry Johnson. Strongly recommend.

         

This is the type of journalism which is sorely missing in the modern West today. So, this is the primer for Saturday.