Pepe wrote a well-nuanced piece on Kazakh events.
Now compare it to what I learned from two different, high-ranking intel sources. The first source was explicit: the whole Kazakh adventure is being sponsored by MI6 to create a new Maidan right before the Russia/US-NATO talks in Geneva and Brussels next week, to prevent any kind of agreement. Significantly, the “rebels” maintained their national coordination even after the internet was disconnected. The second source is more nuanced: the usual suspects are trying to force Russia to back down against the collective West by creating a major distraction in their Eastern front, as part of a rolling strategy of chaos all along Russia’s borders. That may be a clever diversionary tactic, but Russian military intel is watching. Closely. And for the sake of the usual suspects, this better may not be interpreted – ominously – as a war provocation.
Read the whole thing--it is excellent. But it also reinforces the point I hammer home for years now. Which also is demonstrated in Bernhard's (of MoA) piece on West's "planners". The combined West is a one trick pony and it definitely mistook Russia's "benevolence" towards West's actions in late 1990s and 2000s for weakness, which was increasingly untrue the more time passed by, and misunderstood the boot-licking by West's designated Russia "elites"--primarily marginalized and perverted "kreakliat" and de facto organized crime business "leaders" who emerged in 1990s as main beneficiaries of neo-liberal robbing of Russia--for the majority of Russians. But I wrote about the West's ignorance for so many years that there is no necessity to repeat it.
One trick is always the same--color revolution through promotion of "democracy". That is it. When faced with the opposition which can kick West's ass--Russia can do more than that, she can wipe the combined West off the map of the world--this lone trick of destabilizing countries around Russia stops working. As--also on record for years, decades now--specifically US geopolitical "academe" and institutions--are not just ignorant, increasingly there is a serious question about their professional adequacy--enough to take a look at the "stellar" performances of the US Armed Forces in the last 20 years to see that the failure stopped being a bug but became a feature. Same goes to US "intel" services and, in the end, to political authority which is even more ignorant and confused. Did I mention the US "diplomacy"?
And here is the framework--combined West is in Zeitnot, using chess term. It was in it for a while and the situation is aggravated with Zugzwang, which is even more exacerbated by the lack of resources and systemic crisis. So, half-cooked "rebellion" in Kazakhstan goes-off and will now be suppressed and I am sure ODKB (well, Russia) will make sure that the role of say MI-6, a professional Islamic terrorist support organization, will be exposed. As I stated on many occasions, Russia's ultimatum to NATO is just THAT--ultimatum, however padded with diplomatic rhetoric, for now, and Russia is in no mood anymore to waste time and effort on talking to ignorant exceptionalist morons infesting foreign policy orgs in the US and Europe and the knee-jerk "reaction" in Kazakhstan is a perfect indicator of a panic in West's political top. No, really--what do you think, they know how to deal with severe economic, energy, technological and military crises? Seriously? Have you read all this doctrine-mongering BS from all those Atlantic Councils, RANDs and other collections of puny excuse for Western "intellect", lately? All of it is sophomoric at best, at worst--utterly laughable in their economic and military ignorance.
And so we are here: now with Kazakhstan. First Il-76s are already in Kazakhstan.
It certainly gives a massive boost to the legitimacy of ODKB-CSTO and that is already having massive geopolitical integrationist ramifications for former Soviet Union and Eurasian countries who begin to get this funny idea, which also scares the shit out Washington and London politicos, that unlike US "democracy" Russia's security guarantees mean calm, political stability and, in the end, economic prosperity. We, again, as was the case with Syria begin to observe this process in real time.
In related news (thanks to my dear friend who pointed it out to me).
The German government said Monday that it considers nuclear energy dangerous and objects to European Union proposals that would let the technology remain part of the bloc's plans for a climate-friendly future. Germany is on course to switch off its remaining three nuclear power plants at the end of this year and phase out coal by 2030, whereas its neighbor France aims to modernize existing reactors and build new ones to meet its future energy needs. Berlin plans to rely heavily on natural gas until it can be replaced by non-polluting sources for energy.
So, as you can see--you cannot reason with these people and Russia has a full grasp of this issue. You don't negotiate with insane, you tame them.