Drowned In the Informational Noise.

It is like a famous saying--one cannot be slightly pregnant. So, if after very many days of Russia being literally hours away from "invading Ukraine", namely for 64 days (63 on the moment Bernhard of Moon of Alabama counted), one has to begin to suspect that maybe Russia after all wasn't  getting all ready to "invade" at all. Now, after yet another FUBAR by Anglo-American "intelligence" and "diplomats" amplified by Goebbelsonean propaganda known as MSM, there is an acute necessity to hide obvious facts behind the wall of verbose BS. Indeed, how can you explain this:

Speaking to reporters at a press briefing on Monday, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said that “obviously we’re mindful of things that the Russians could do that would potentially give us indications of some sort of imminent incursion.” However, he went on, “we’re not there yet, but we are watching for those indicators very, very closely.”  

In related news, intelligence people are still involved in the search for Iraqi weapons of mass destruction and they should find them any minute now.  I can only imagine how the cabal of the US "diplomats" and "spies", many of who were subjected to Anglo-American version of history and have been taught geopolitics by such people as late Zbig and his many followers, are finding out now that, in fact, not only Russia doesn't need Ukraine but she radically, same as overwhelming majority of Russians, doesn't want it. So many careers, so many reputations, fake as most  of them are in UK and US geopolitical "academe", have been now completely discredited by this fact. So many people sucked on the fat teat of the think-tankdom and abused grants and tenures by pretending that they knew Soviet Union or know modern Russia, that seeing the fundamentals of their world view, however ignorant, to be so ruthlessly smashed by the reality should be pretty disheartening. 

One doesn't have many chances to state his or her academic case in geopolitics due to much longer time-wise processes shaping geopolitical reality when compared to a duration of a single human life, so the probability of a strategic mistake is very high. So, one has to beware of a very high threshold for accuracy when trying to say something about the state of the global affairs. One doesn't need to go far to recall how Fukuyama failed at "looking into the future" and how Brzezinski laid down the foundation for one of the major factors which played into the running the United States into the ground. So, it is not just about the United States hating to look, not to mention actual being, weak, it is also a matter of many people who dealt with pseudo-academic BS in and around London and D.C. trying to save whatever "reputation" and following they obtained, preaching the gospel whose meaning they never understood. I speak about it today here a little bit. 

Is Ischenko prophetic in terms of false flag being done against Ukie government itself? One cannot exclude such a possibility. But we'll see. Meanwhile Russian and Chinese Navies train in the Arabian Sea yesterday:

 

Just in case. Will see what Putin and Xi will decide in Beijing. I think time when China may need to "come out" of her shell is here. Will she? Will learn soon enough.

America Needs War.

Desperately. In this particular instance the war is more needed on Democrat's side of the isle  due to a variety of reasons, which are:

1. US being caught in the Catch 22 of Russia's "ultimatum" and having no other ideas about how to extricate itself from Ukraine's conundrum;

2. The coming trashing of Democrats at the upcoming mid-terms, aggravated by POTUS' "excellent" rating;

3. With Democrats' agenda imploding as I type this and massive systemic crisis engulfing combined West.

The US, being geopolitically one trick pony, is hell-bent on pushing Russia towards invasion of the country Russians neither want nor need and would prefer NATO (and US with EU) cleaning up and paying for the mess they created in 404. The US desire is so strong that good ol' Joe went on record today. 

President Biden addressed the brewing conflict between Russia and Ukraine during a press briefing Wednesday, saying of Russian President Vladimir Putin, "my guess is he will move in."    

Of course,  it remains a matter of speculation on what conflict POTUS had in mind (maybe he meant China and Taiwan, or whatever), but the truth is--Washington  is desperate. So much so that it continues to issue empty threats promising Russia a "catastrophe" and even forbidding Russia any operations with the US Dollar (in Russian). I slowly reach for a pop-corn bucket.  Not to be outdone, of course, are all kinds of professional abusers of legislative positions such as Connecticut Democrat Chris Murphy promising: 

Sen. Chris Murphy appeared Tuesday on Anderson Cooper 360, where the Connecticut Democrat addressed the growing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, with Russia now reportedly having hundreds of thousands of troops posted at the Ukrainian border. Though Russia invaded Crimea, a pro-Russia area of Ukraine, in 2014 with little pushback, Murphy said things would go much differently if Russian President Vladimir Putin were to invade. “There is going to be continued U.S. assistance, assistance to an army that’s ready to fight and a population that is not just going to let Russia march into the center of Ukraine,” Murphy said. “Putin seems to be getting absolutely horrible advice. People telling him he is going to be greeted as some kind of liberator in a country that has turned against Russia over the last 10 years and is going to fight for its survival.”

Well, for starters you can look up this Senator's biography filled with studies of combined arms operations, deployments into operational zones, degrees in weapon system integrations... Ah, wait, I am screwing with you. Senator's pathos about "army that's ready to fight" and, especially, which is funny, about population are the occasions on which I always like to enroll the help from Sergei Victorovich Lavrov:

because at this stage one has to ask a question: how else these people want to embarrass their own country by the virtue of them being elected to the positions they are utterly unqualified for? They literally have no grasp of the reality, especially economic one (forget military--it is impossible to explain to average US politician what it is) outside of their constituency. But hey, what do I know. People continue to ask me to comment on this or that statement or talking by one or the other American "expert" on Russia. Read my lips: bar some few exceptions, US academe, including those who specialize in Russia are not experts. They are narrative-mongers, majority of who have no serious skills, background nor experience in anything they try to "analyze" about Russia--this problem is systemic and is due to a complete corruption of the America's education, especially history and military history and over-saturation of the American body-politic by people without any serious education or lawyers. It is literally the situation of auto-mechanic with vocational school performing an open heart surgery and thinking that he knows what he is doing. You can easily predict the result, for a patient.    

But What If...Or, Here We Go Again.

Russia does not need 404, in fact, Russians overwhelmingly do not want those people in their lives, they don't want to pay for them, and they want them to stay away from Russia in every conceivable way, bar pure geography which cannot be changed. And that's the problem for Russia, because in the end Russia will have to deal with this shithole, which like a cyst placed itself at Russia's South-Western borders and continues to deteriorate towards cancerous tumor with increasing speed. The United States, realistically, doesn't need 404 either, because while the US still exercises the idea of using 404 as a anti-Russia ram both in geopolitical and economic senses, and sleeps and dreams about Russia "invading" this territory, the US is facing one serious challenge here: what IF US desires come true and Russia DOES indeed decide to end this drama and finish off Nazi regime in Kiev? 

The US will rejoice initially, because it splits in many economic respects Europe from Russia, plus Poland gets her desire (not entirely unjustified) to get Lvov (Lemberg) back and for a few moments the US would seem to have accomplished what it set out to do. Except! And here is this exception. Enter Karen Donfried of the US State Department, who, as is traditional for the contingent which passes in the US for "diplomats" to speak about what they have no clue about, waxes military. Note, Donfried is a classic, typical product of the US degenerating "humanities" field and has all boxes allowing her to swim upstream of D.C. bureaucracy checked. As most of US "diplomats" she has no idea what is she talking about when:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - All options are on the table in how to respond to Russia's "large and unusual" troop buildup near Ukraine's border, and the NATO alliance will decide on the next move following consultations next week, the State Department's top U.S. diplomat for European affairs said on Friday. "As you can appreciate, all options are on the table and there's a toolkit that includes a whole range of options," Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Karen Donfried told reporters in a telephone briefing. U.S. President Joe Biden said he was concerned about the situation in Ukraine, repeated Washington's support for Ukraine's territorial integrity and added that he will "in all probability" speak with his Ukrainian and Russian counterparts Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Vladimir Putin. The comments came as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is heading to Latvia and Sweden next week to attend meetings of NATO and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). Donfried said Moscow's "large and unusual" troop buildup would top the agenda at the NATO summit.

I have news for Donfried--there are no "all options on the table for the US" because if Russia does indeed decide to end it once and for all, the United States has neither forces nor resources to do anything about it, unless the United States wants to unleash a whole European War, but because Donfried spent most of her life in a make-believe world of "policy-making" she cannot grasp that Europe will not be the only theater of operations for Russia and the US proper will fast become another target. Unlike Vietnam or Iraq, Russia can wipe the US off the map and that will be it. One may ask if they are they that stupid in State Department. Yes, many are but those who are not are forced to toe the party line of primarily empty and militant rhetoric and empty threats. Yes, this is how serious it could get, but what neither Donfried nor most US policy-"makers" can wrap their brains around is the fact that operationally (militarily, that is) Russia has options in 404 because she has escalation dominance, in fact, she has escalation preponderance in 404, especially in the East of 404 where the issue will be settled, since Russia doesn't' care what is going to happen to the West of Kiev. 

This preponderance manifests itself in several key fields:

1. Russia's fire-power in stand-off weapons. In other words, Russia's long reach capable to paralyze 404's command and control structure, and, not least--government control. 

2. Russia does not need to really "invade" 404, at least not at the onset since she can "crush" the front from own territory. Not that it will matter anyway, since hysteria in Western media is already at near highest pitch. 

3. The only thing the US will be able to do is to rush, yet again, some sort of a surface task force in hopes to gain whatever SIGINT it can get, it will be especially interested in frequencies of Russia AD systems in combat mode and will, again, start sending strategic bombers near Russia's air space. Russia can do the same or she can simply place X-101s (range of more than 4,500 kilometers) strategic aviation carriers on steady patrols and NORAD will take a note. 

4. If, on the other hand, the US will decide to exercise "all options on the table", meaning inserting itself militarily into this whole thing--it will end badly for the US under any circumstances, because, as I already stated above--the war will fast spill out of Europe and no matter what path of escalation it takes, the US loses outright. 

But now to the most important conclusion: even if the US does not engage militarily, a suicidal scenario as I pointed out, all tactical gains from semi or outright open Russia's involvement in settling 404 issue bears a catastrophic strategic reputational loss for the US, which will demonstrate a complete lack of power and influence of a decrepit empire. We may only speculate on the ramifications of such an outcome, not to mention the fact that at this stage Russia CAN afford, if pressed by circumstances, to finish off this artificial construct of 404 and sever its ties to the West, EU cannot. To demonstrate how far apart modern West and Russia are--Russian press looks on in awe at European idiocy and even Russian senators comment today at Germany ban of Tchaikovsky's Christmas classics The Nutcracker ballet because it is "racists" (in Russian). It was also called racist by Scotland's Ballet Company, while London changed some scenes because they "remind of harem". You cannot reason with these people, they are not normal human beings and the only thing they understand is the language of threat and if it comes to it--it is about time Russia erected a new Iron Curtain between herself and totalitarian, delusional West. For everything else--there is Master Card (c). 

Maybe it is a time to grant the so called post-modernist West its wish? But as the saying goes think twice what you wish for... you know the rest.    

P.S. Latest reports about the state of VSU (404's armed so called forces) paint the picture of utter incompetence and demoralization.