Wrong Term ...

 ... "shelved" is not the applicable term. More like removed into the deep recesses of archives of naval curiosities, never to be shown to public again in order to avoid embarrassment. I always stress--it is sometimes even painful for me seeing mighty US Navy, with its glorious heroic history, becoming a butt of jokes around the world, and not only because of the obsolete carrier-centric concept, but this:

The US Navy’s Trump-class battleship will be 'quietly shelved'. Summary and Key Points: The proposed Trump-class “guided-missile battleship” (BBG(X)) is pitched as a revival of American sea power, but the concept clashes with how modern naval war is actually fought. The platform is missile-centric—more like a bloated destroyer than a true battleship—while remaining highly vulnerable to submarines, long-range missiles, and ISR-driven targeting. Exotic add-ons like railguns and shipborne lasers are power-hungry and still unreliable at sea, while bigger hulls simply create bigger, pricier targets. Worse, U.S. shipyards are already strained, meaning BBG(X) would likely crowd out submarines and logistics ships that matter more in a China fight.

Child-emperor loves expensive shiny toys and he doesn't care, nor can grasp modern warfare, naval or not.

This is the thing which many US generals (and Admirals) still cannot grasp--the opposite side has as good ISR as the US. ISR means targeting and firing solutions, after that--all bets are off. Salvo Model rules and real serious militaries plan and fight based on model, some of them being in the process of constant update and modifications, 24/7 literally. This is how Russian General Staff operates, its GOU--Main Operational Directorate. Same goes for Main Staff of the Russian Navy. And the author correctly states, when it comes to China and her PLAN--the US Navy has only one avenue to pursue--submarine forces which still (emphasis on "still") maintains a sizeable, generational, lead over PLAN's submarine force. In terms of surface fleet--US Navy's readiness is a huge question mark. But in the end, it is not just arithmetic of MK41 VLS, it is what is in those VLS which makes all the difference.   

Now They Figured Out...

... how to reverse SMO.  

Ukraine needs Western submarines to bolster its military capabilities in the Black Sea, Navy chief Admiral Aleksey Neizhpapa, has said. He argued that deploying underwater craft could strategically improve Ukraine’s positions across the Black Sea during the conflict with Russia. “We are thinking about it, submarines are necessary for us, they should be part of the navy,” Neizhpapa said in an interview with journalist Natalya Moseychuk, posted on her YouTube channel on Saturday. The head of the Ukrainian navy added that the country does not need large submarines, as “they are useless in the Black Sea.” “Locating only near Odessa means having nothing, we should look further, spread the fleet throughout the Black Sea and use its entire area,” he said, expressing hope that Ukraine would turn “from a coastal state into a maritime power.”

As Yoda would have said, a strategic and operational genius of Admiral Tony Radakin behind it I sense. In related news, 404 also needs teeny-weeny nuclear aircraft carriers with teeny-weeny aircraft. When combined with not-large submarines and lack of understanding of ASW capabilities of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, it all, necessarily ensure the victory of 404 will. Easy. 

In related news! Finally! Akhmat guys had it with this whole "war bloggers" network and BS which they spew daily. And one of them, famous BSer Romanov dared to call Akhmat guys "tiktokers" and even implied them being used behind... lines of recruits. Hm, he was brought to one of the positions of Akhmat--naturally on the line of combat contact and was made (very humanely and politely) humiliate himself by apologizing...

This cretin sits next to one of the Akhmat commanders Aid. Boy, I didn't laugh so much in a long time, including from a delight that finally somebody from combat formations started to do what should have been done some time ago--by discrediting all this TG-channels collection of BSers who never wore a military uniform in their lives and who are main conduits for... TSIPSO propaganda. This is a clear message for scumbags such as Fighterbomber or Podolyaka among many others to get ready. Could it be that it all is somehow related to legendary officer Apti Aronovich Alautdinov's promotion to the First Deputy Superintendent of the Chief Political Directorate? I, actually, hope so--because this media bacchanalia lasted long enough, it is about time this community of ass-holes and shysters feels responsibility for their words and does not discredit the work of actual war reporters and military professionals.

You Think Tank Formations Are Complex?

You can bet your ass on that--they are. Modern tank force, not some assorted variety of subpar vehicles, is very complex in terms of forming, training and fighting. Netcentricity, comms, targeting distribution, objectives' updates (re-designation), night vision, FLIRS and things of this nature. That is why, as an example, Russia has dedicated tank academies, such as Kazan Tank Red Banner Higher Command College (Academy) and used to have the Armour War College, which was converted into the Combined Arms War College. Russians teach their future tank formation commanders really seriously and the full course is 5 years 6 days a week long study. One of the graduates of Kazan College is all known to all of us Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov. 

Now, imagine what it takes to shake down a modern... submarine. Modern submarine is a deadly epitome of modern advanced technology and scientific and industrial prowess of the nation. It takes the highest level of military and scientific expertise to operate these advanced machines. Well, but that doesn't intimidate Ukrainian politicians. 

But even larger and more sophisticated weapons than long-range missiles, main battle tanks, and jet fighters are apparently on Ukraine’s shopping list. Deputy Foreign Minister Andrij Melnyk, who hit the headlines this week for instantly demanding jets even as the ink on the tank deal was still drying, has been turning his attention to naval power. Speaking of Ukraine’s ambition to kick Russia out of the black sea, the diplomat pointed to Germany’s class of six 212A diesel-electric attack submarines, asking for one of them, and a German frigate, the Lübeck which was taken out of service last month. The 212A submarines are regarded as small and stealthy craft, using hydrogen fuel cells powering an electric motor for silent running underwater. “Why not to send one to Ukraine?”, Melnyk posited.

Obviously, Melnyk's prowess in anti-submarine warfare at the Black Sea Theater of Operations is impressive, wink, wink, but something tells me that whatever the submarine--let's imagine for a second a fantastic scenario--or submarines will be transferred to whatever passes in 404 for the navy, will last only as long as it takes for 3M14 Kalibr to fly to the base where this subs(s) will be "parked". Obviously, one shouldn't discount a rather impressive ASW component Russian Black Sea Fleet can bring to bear, ranging from the newest pr. 636 SSKs to surface and air based ASW component, but there is a larger problem here. 

Ukraine simply has no competent naval commanders to run a fucking inflatable boat, let alone modern submarine, not to mention a crew whose training and then shake down will take... years. 

It will take a separate book to describe all travails of a training of a decent, forget about very good, naval officer with focus on submarine service. And here, my friends, we are talking about advanced submarine with AIP. Granted, it is German (and Italian) and has pretty conventional torpedo armament. Can you imagine what it takes to run SSK of Russian Navy armed with state-of-the-art weapon systems, let alone being integrated in the network. But what do I know, Washington is desperate and... utterly incompetent. 

Meanwhile, some German cuck, namely Friedrich Merz, the head of CDU (another collection of cucks), passionately conveys in Focus this message: 

 Wir im Krieg mit Russland? Nein, Frau Baerbock!

Translation: We are at war with Russia? No, Frau Baerbock!

And then he proceeds to complain that Baerbock's statement about being at war with Russia gives... ammo to Kremlin's "propaganda". Well, Herr Merz, Baerbock, actually, unwittingly, of course, because she is uneducated ignorant bimbo--the only type allowed in German politics--she stated the truth. Germany IS at war with Russia and if this CDU big honcho didn't know that, then, naturally, he is full of shit and is as a lowlife liar as his former boss Frau Merkel. The creep doesn't even understand that the procedure for Russian diplomat still remaining in Germany of using serious disinfectant and possibly a course of antibiotics should be established after any pro-forma handshake with most of German politicians. Russia is done with Germany, finally. There is nobody to talk to there. Thank you, Analena Baerbock for being truthful when it mattered.     

The Country With Tattered Economy (c).

Well, we can forgive an intellectual mediocrity with community organizer background for ignorance, but the way Russia's economy which supposed to be "in tatters" performs is best illustrated with that.

A new advanced Borei-class nuclear-powered submarine was among three warships that entered service in the Russian Navy on Thursday. Another boat of the same class, which is designed to carry Bulava intercontinental ballistic missiles, was floated for the first time on the same day. The Russian military conducted three simultaneous ceremonies, during which naval flags were raised on the new vessels, marking the formal beginning their active service. The Borei-class submarine ‘Generalissimus Suvorov’ was the largest and most powerful of the three. Boats of that class form the backbone of the naval component of Russia’s modern nuclear deterrence. She is the sixth ship of her kind and was welcomed into service in the city of Severodvinsk in northern Russia, but is slated to join the Pacific Fleet. 

As I am on record--explaining to lay person what it means to build such a monstrous machine as Borei-class SSBN may take a few years and will require a serious elaboration on subjects ranging from nuclear propulsion to spherical trigonometry and battle management systems, in other words--to explain that this is THE real high-tech, not some BS of Twitter and Facebook. 

As sad as it sounds, but it is the way it is, that the most advanced technologies are produced in the war-making business and make killing machines a pinnacle of human scientific and technological advancement. So, Russia has now 7 (seven) state-of-the-art SSBNs afloat and she only accelerates in expanding her submarine fleet. 

In other news from "tattered economy", Russia reminded Kiev regime today that she can continue to run out of cruise missiles as long as it takes. It was a reminder that one shouldn't (the message is for the US, really) try to launch shit--another one was shot down today over Saratov--against Russia's strategic objects, such as Engels strategic aviation base--because, in the end, Rammstein is absolutely defenseless. RAND can wet-dream whatever it wants about "de-escalating" by attacking Moscow, but, I am positive, there are at least few still competent people in there, who should understand that if Russia decides to go all in even in conventional strike--most of NATO navies and HQs in Europe and US proper will not survive for long. 

But then there is Russian saying: if you constantly need to forbid the language, to remove monuments, to destroy history--maybe you are building your nation on somebody's land? That is an excellent reference to 404 removing the monument of the founder of the Russian city of Odessa Empress Catherine the Great. So, before it looked like that:

Now, you can see this "composition" like this:

Pretty much self-explanatory and reflects well not on 404, which is done as a country anyway, but on puppeteers from D.C. who are lacking class, culture and history. 

In related news, I heard today Stephen Walt, of The Israel Lobby fame, gave the interview to Foreign Policy rag. 

I read the gist of it. Good God, with "realists" like this who needs neocons. I am on record--the whole of the Political Science and International Relations diploma mill in the US is an absolute academic fraud. Walt should have continued with his biochemistry degree and avoided going into the geopolitics with minimal, if any, understanding of global power balance and mechanism which form it. But, hey, what do I know. I guess I need to write a new book on that, wink, wink;)

Of Course They Jump...

And I don't mean Ukrainians favorite pastime of jumping as the method of identifying moskals in their midst--because "those who don't jump, they are moskals". I mean oil prices. 

After two weeks of silence in detailing how it would react to the G7 oil price cap, overnight the Kremlin raised the stakes for the west when state-run Tass news service quoted Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak as saying that Russia may reduce output by 500,000 to 700,000 barrels a day in response to the cap. While not yet formalized, President Putin plans to sign a decree on the nation’s reaction to the threshold on Monday or Tuesday, containing unspecified “preventive measures." “A risk-on sentiment and a weaker US dollar are helping oil today,” said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodities analyst at UBS Group AG. “The Russian comments are also helping but the market probably wants to see it before it believes, hence a muted response.”

They still didn't learn a simple fact--what Kremlin says, it does. It was told to morons that Russia IS NOT going to sell hydrocarbons to countries which implement price caps. By default that means EU. It is so simple. 

It takes a titanic effort to explain to West "educated" (euphemism for being dumbed down finances manipulator) economist how Russian economy operates. Russian strategic industries and resources are now under state's control and operate under the principles espoused in the overall Russia's geopolitical strategy. So, when necessary, the economy reorients itself. That is why West's "strategy" against Russia failed miserably, despite all immense efforts to destabilize Russia's economy and, by default, Russia's war effort. Not only it didn't imped SMO, it, actually, spurred Russia into accelerated rearmament and expansion of military, while economy recovers nicely and the output grows. You can bet your ass on those things not being taught in Western universities, not least because of the caricature on Russian history of the 20th century. 

Meanwhile, Russia and her "broken" economy continue to churn out cutting edge weapons and today the latest in the Project 677 "Lada" the submarine Velikie Luki was floated in St. Petersburg (in Russian). This is the third one of this class, two more are building and, evidently, future ones will have anaerobic propulsion. Naturally, all of these subs are carriers of not just torpedoes but 3M14 and 3M54. They are extremely silent and highly automated.      

As I constantly explain to people who try to compare submarine fleets of Russia and the US that Russia always had a very large component of SSKs, which the US Navy doesn't have. And just in the last 8 years Russia floated out 13 (thirteen) newest diesel-electric subs, all carriers of cruise missiles and extremely advanced platforms for operation in Russia's littoral and remote sea zones. Six more, both of Pr. 636 and Pr. 677 are being built and will be floated out in 2023-2024. In all--19 subs. Not too shabby, eh? So, always keep in mind when comparing two submarine fleets, since USN doesn't have SSKs and operates exclusively nuclear submarines. Russian Navy operates both. Just some food for thought for today.

Not Really The News...

... if one asks me, because it was clear from the inception that the US will not give up fat juicy submarine construction contracts for AUKUS project:

Amid heightened tensions with China, the administration of US President Joe Biden is looking to expedite the production of nuclear-powered submarines for Australia by building “the first few” vessels on US soil, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday. According to unnamed Western officials, the potential agreement on the matter seeks to provide Canberra with a number of nuclear subs by the mid-2030s, while also laying the groundwork for long-term production of the vessels in Australia itself. The move is reportedly being mulled by senior officials from the US, Australia, and UK. All three nations are members of AUKUS, a security pact that was announced in September 2021. Besides promoting “a free and open Indo-Pacific,” it also envisages providing Australia with conventionally-armed and nuclear-powered submarines, thus significantly boosting its naval capabilities.

It IS boosting of naval capabilities but, as WSJ reports in a classic chutzpah move:

Meanwhile, the proposal is said to have its own issues. The US would reportedly need to spend billions of dollars to expand submarine production capabilities on American soil, although Australia is supposedly expected to contribute to these efforts.

You see? Not only Australia will buy those subs, she will help to build shipbuilding capacity. They say 2030 is a the target date, we'll see about that, considering a horrendous economic dynamics in the Western world, but then again--who knows at this stage. In funny news, however, this stands out. As RIAFAN reports:

Пентагон разработал для ВСУ стратегию боевых действий в Запорожской области. План наступления будет «самоубийственным» для Вооруженных сил Украины, считает председатель движения «Мы вместе с Россией» Владимир Рогов.Предложенная США стратегия подразумевает форсирование Днепра с помощью высадки десанта и наведения понтонных переправ, сообщил порталу «Украина.ру» собеседник. Эти атаки обернутся для Украины тысячами смертей, что понимают и украинские военные, считает Рогов. «Но военные прекрасно понимают, что это самоубийство. Поэтому их армия всячески уже сейчас пытается от этого отойти», — подчеркнул он.

Translation: The Pentagon has developed a military strategy for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Zaporozhye region. The offensive plan would be “suicidal” for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said Volodymyr Rogov, chairman of the “We are with Russia” movement. The strategy proposed by the United States involves forcing the Dnieper with the help of landings and pontoon crossings, the interlocutor told the Ukraina.ru portal. These attacks will result in thousands of deaths for Ukraine, which the Ukrainian military understands, Rogov believes. “But the military is well aware that this is suicide. Therefore, their army is already trying in every possible way to move away from this, ”he stressed.

That sounds about right, considering Pentagon's "stellar" operational experiences and seeing who represents it today in the public realm, ranging from BSer  admiral Kirby to people of Keane or Petraeus' military "qualities", it is totally conceivable to expect shit like that being viewed as a viable "strategy". Recall Bismark's quip (allegedly he stated that):

“Never fight with Russian. On your every stratagem they answer unpredictable stupidity.”

Should Bismark have been alive today and could observe the last 80 years of the development of "strategies", especially by NATO, he surely would have rephrased his quote and you all know how. In general, the VSU C2-ed by the US was busy last few months with what Douglas Macgregor terms as the "impaling of Ukraine reserves" on Russian troops. So, you get the picture. In the end, as I repeat this ad nauseam, one has to know what REAL war and operational planning against top notch opponent is--the experience Pentagon simply doesn't have. But that issue of the military school of thought and how it develops had many volumes written about by people who, unlike me, commanded real armies and army groups in strategic level operations or campaigns. 

Now with 300,000 Russians being mobilized, the picture of the larger objectives for Russia begins to emerge and this is a very bad news for NATO and its leader--the United States. The whole "rules based order", a euphemism for the American hegemony, is being disassembled as I type this. We may discuss here the actual meaning of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, but there is very little doubt that the way United Nations operates today is indicative of a totally paralyzed structure corrupted by the West top-bottom and as such must be either reformed or completely abolished. But this is the task for real global shakers and movers led by Russia. Meanwhile, referenda in former Ukraine continue despite Kiev regime and its sponsors from D.C. and Brussels doing all they can to kill as many civilians as possible in the act of intimidation, but that is not having any effect on proceedings. 

In two days more than 45% of voters in LNR and 55% in DNR have voted and there are still three days left, Zaporozhie saw 35% attendance (in Russian). I am sure the work on establishing a permanent military infrastructure in newly emerging military district of Russia in new four subject is already in progress, and that means a solid second echelon and allocation of reserves when the time for Nikolaev and Odessa comes. This is your primer for Saturday. 

Chincken-hawks or What Triggers Me.

It is one of my most favorite videos but this hilarious representation of the Korean Conflict applies fully to many US legislators whose only skill is barking. 

I abhor ANY war-monger, anywhere, who never having a real service and background to make even tactical, forget about operational and strategic decisions in their lives bark their non-sense into the air due to their recognition of the fact that they themselves will never have to go and fight, let alone die for the principles they love to show off as their moral compass, while in reality being nothing more than political prostitutes and chihuahuas in human terms. Enter couple of such guys: 

1. Senator Richard Blumenthal. His bio states this:

Born in Brooklyn, New York, Blumenthal attended Riverdale Country School, a private school in the Bronx. He graduated from Harvard College, where he was editor-in-chief of The Harvard Crimson. He studied for a year at Trinity College, Cambridge, in England before attending Yale Law School, where he was editor-in-chief of the Yale Law Journal. At Yale, he was a classmate of Bill and Hillary Clinton. From 1970 to 1976, Blumenthal served in the United States Marine Corps Reserve, attaining the rank of sergeant. After law school, Blumenthal passed the bar and served as administrative assistant and law clerk for several Washington, D.C. figures. From 1977 to 1981, he was United States Attorney for the District of Connecticut. In the early 1980s he worked in private law practice, including as volunteer counsel for the NAACP Legal Defense Fund. ... Blumenthal received five draft deferments during the Vietnam War, first educational deferments, then deferments based on his occupation. In April 1970 Blumenthal enlisted in the United States Marine Corps Reserve which, The New York Times reported, "virtually guaranteed that he would not be sent to Vietnam". He served in units in Washington, D.C., and Connecticut from 1970 to 1976, attaining the rank of sergeant. During his 2010 Senate campaign, news report videos that showed Blumenthal claiming he had served in Vietnam created a controversy. Blumenthal denied having intentionally misled voters, but acknowledged having occasionally "misspoken" about his service record. He later apologized to voters for remarks about his military service which he said had not been "clear or precise"

Yes, Stolen Valor and draft dodging are very wide-spread among US political class, enough to remember Hillary's "courage under fire" and then Brian Williams' being fired upon in Iraq. All of it, obviously, turning out to be a complete BS. So, it is not a bug but a feature. 

2. Representative Joe Courtney. Yet another lawyer pretending to "serve American people", who saw military service on TV in such shows as M.A.S.H. and movies by Oliver Stone, who, BTW, is a bona fide Vietnam Veteran. 

So these two "heroes", who wouldn't know the difference between targeting and firing solution, came up with a brilliant idea: 

American sailors should be prepared to take on Russia and show their strength as the country goes “head to head” with Moscow amid fears of a possible invasion of Ukraine, two US legislators have demanded. ...Blumenthal said that he agreed with President Joe Biden that the US should not send soldiers to fight in Ukraine, but insisted that increasing NATO capabilities in the region would be an important part of showing strength “around the world in other areas where we go head-to-head with the Russians.” In particular, he pointed to the role submarines can play in confronting Moscow. “Undersea warfare – because we’re talking about the Mediterranean, about the Black Sea as potential areas of tension and conflict – is very much in play even though it isn’t directly involved in the confrontation in the Eastern Ukraine area or Crimea or in the northern borders of Ukraine, which represent perhaps the greatest immediate threat in Belarus, where Putin is amassing forces right now.”

I have some news for Blumenthal and his side-kick. The fact that Blumenthal sits on the Armed Services Committee and is privy to some chit-chat by people who know and has access to classified briefings doesn't make him a specialist on naval warfare or any warfare to start with. They don't teach that in Law Schools and it is much harder to command a modern submarine than passing a bar exam. In fact, several order of magnitude harder. But the main news, of course, is the fact that US Navy's submarine forces ARE present in Med and have been there for a long time. So, how "going head-to-head with Russians" in submarine warfare looks like, Blumenthal will not understand even if I, out of goodness of my soul, will agree to give him a course of lectures on hydrology, non-acoustic sensors, tactics and operations, review with his a variety of highly classified tactical and operational manuals related to submarine operations, and maybe even explain to him basics of signal processing and why one doesn't want to use a cookie cutter. Even after that, he still will not understand that, including the fact that this "head-to-head" thing is happening in Med right this very moment as I type this. 

So, I am triggered always, when some uneducated hack (or collection of hacks) who do not know shit from shinola and have ZERO military professional background at least of the tactical officer level begin to wax "Top Gunnish" and based on their Hollywood military porn "expertise" begin to offer their advice on matter they have no clue about. And clue they don't have. Everything they do when offering their nauseating war-mongering fodder is done for a PR purposes only, and serve ONLY one thing they desire above all--to be re-elected to maintain their position of power and possible financial benefits which US Congress affords its members. Considering a very high susceptibility of the American population to military porn and aggressive rhetoric, due to America's utter illiteracy about real war and warfare, this works for people like Blumenthal. It doesn't work, however, in real life and real war, but neither of these two would know anything about it. Nor do they understand how they look like barking chihuahuas when proposing something which is already in place and is ongoing. But then again, look at the video above.

Yeah, Good Luck With That.

France, as was anticipated, started to complain and take "actions". 

French shipbuilder Naval Group has said it will send a “detailed and calculated proposal” to Australia after Canberra canned a $40 billion submarine deal in favor of a new pact with the US and UK, much to France’s dismay. On Wednesday, Naval Group CEO Pierre Eric Pommellet told France’s Le Figaro newspaper that Australia would be receiving a bill for the submarine contract which was cancelled last week. Pommellet said a “detailed and calculated proposal” would be sent to Canberra in the next “few weeks” which sets out the money it expects Australia to cough up for cancelling the 2016 deal. The shipbuilder chief said that such an eventuality had been planned for by the French firm.The bill will supposedly cover costs already incurred as well as those to come, with some “linked to demobilization of infrastructure and IT as well as the redeployment of employees,” he said, adding that the company will assert its rights.

Any chance of me getting on the French legal team which will be dealing with this issue? I expect a financial bonanza for lawyers in this matter. But, on the other hand, one has to keep in mind that at this level, same as was with hapless Mistrals' deal (awarded to France by Russia for "mediation" after Russian-Georgian War of 080808), geopolitics and operational realities play as large, if not larger, role as financial considerations, however important $40 billion are. As I continue to stress for the last week: we still don't have all facts on our hands in terms of American-Australian intentions and I want to underscore--we are merely speculating for now. If lease comes through, things will become much clearer. Some are even suggesting the possibility of US converted Ohio-class SSGNs leased out to Australia. I doubt it, but I could be wrong. Obviously with a single Ohio-class SSGN packing 154 TLAMs this is a concern for China. But then again--I stress it--for now it is mostly a speculation. 

 

I personally lean towards SSNs on SLOCs, but we just have to wait and see. As for French grievances, well, what can I say--geopolitical weight of players is too different, not in France's favor, for France to have any reasonable chances on substantial compensation, not to speak of a wounded national pride. Thanks to Larch for pointing this out. 

HELSINKI, Finland (AP) — The top U.S. military officer met with his Russian counterpart Wednesday, against the backdrop of U.S. struggles to get military basing rights and other counterterrorism support in countries bordering Afghanistan — a move Moscow has flatly opposed. The meeting in the Finnish capital, Helsinki, between Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Chief of the Russian General Staff Gen. Valery Gerasimov comes at a crucial time in the wake of the military withdrawal from Afghanistan. Without troops on the ground, the U.S. needs to forge more basing, intelligence sharing and other agreements to help monitor al-Qaida and Islamic State militants in Afghanistan to ensure they are not regrouping and posing a threat to America and its allies. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, said in July, however, that Moscow warned the U.S. that any deployment of American troops in countries neighboring Afghanistan “is unacceptable.” He said Russia told the U.S. “in a direct and straightforward way that it would change a lot of things not only in our perceptions of what’s going on in that important region, but also in our relations with the United States.”

As I am on record for years--I feel better when Russian and American militaries speak to each-other. Russia, obviously, is not going to allow US troops to be stationed in all those Stans, but I want to stress another tremendously important point: there IS a very real threat of Jihad and terrorism which should not be discounted against the background of the US escape from Afghanistan. We can only speculate (yet again) on a complexity of this issue, but it is an established fact that exchange between Russia and US regarding these matters exists and it is steady. Well, the United States can only blame itself for this development, with special thanks to Zbig, who due to him being a rather fanatical Russophobe and a pseudo-scholar thought that the United States can manage Political Islam it helped to create and fund. We all know how American political "science" works in real life, ask Fukuyama, late Huntington or present day Mearsheimer who got lost completely in their ignorance of the outside world.  But then again, it is a defining feature of American "academe" and elites. The proof, as it is known, is in the pudding, or as Hegel stated--practice is the criterion of the truth. Those who are not brainwashed are well aware of this truth.    

In related news, Russia continues to build and launch those pesky missile corvettes capable of carrying anything from 3M14M and 3M54M to Zircon, like there is no tomorrow. The latest one, two days ago was launched in Kerch, at Zaliv wharf. 

This one is named Askold after the famous Russian cruiser of Russo-Japanese war and of Gallipoli fame. It (she) still has to have navalized Pantsir and other systems installed. Can you imagine a ceremony at Zaliv when first project 23900 LHD will be launched? I hope to live to see this. I am sure HIMSELF will be present for this occasion. I am also in a desperate anticipation of Admiral Nakhimov getting more publicity and getting ready for sea trials in 2023. I cannot recognize this world anymore. The changes in the last 5 years are stunning and historic in scale and scope.

Oh, No, No, No, No...

Ria publishes today the review of Le Figaro's article (in fact there are several of them, which is expected, given the circumstances) regarding this whole CLUSTERFAUKUS which discusses this whole issue. But Ria concentrates not on the article but on more than 1200 comments to it (in Russian). One of very many comments by French readers states this:  Une seule solution claquer la porte de l'OTAN ! Even without the translation it is obvious that he (or she) calls on slamming the door on NATO. Others call for distancing from Anglo-Saxondom and removing sanctions on Russia and joining her in whatever form. Well, I have some bad news for French audience of Le Figaro--Russia is not your rebound flick to ease the pain from being dumped by a long time lover who, in addition, promised to get married after many years of engagement. No, no, no, no, this is not how it works. As one Russian commenter summarized the overwhelmingly dominant sentiment on Ria's discussion board:

А оно нам надо? С такими друзьями никаких врагов не надо...  

Translation: Do we really need it? Who needs enemies with such friends...

Exactly. This is how overwhelming majority of Russians thinks today. 

1. Current France and current Russia have zero commonalities culturally and in terms of values cannot be further apart. France since long ago is a playground for alternative lifestyle, multiculturalism (a euphemism for Islamization) and suicidal cultural practices. French intellectual "elites" are much larger in scale likeness of what in Russia is a marginalized freak-show of Russian "liberals" and fifth column. Why would Russia, then, have any interest in "expanding" on these policies by associating herself in any way with a country which only nominally is France, while in reality is a ticking demographic and cultural time bomb? Russia, in French mind, is a backward country which builds Christian cathedrals, declares marriage between the man and the woman sacred in her Constitution, Russians are nationalists and do not allow LGBTQ ideology to roam freely. Russian also shoot to kill terrorists and feel no compunction about it.

2. Russians did not elect Macron, French people did. There are always consequences to actions. Russians hate globalists, French, evidently, make them their Presidents time after time. Each nation deserves the government it elects. If the French government is bad (well, it is--it is utterly globalist, neoliberal and anti-national) it is France's problems and in terms of possibility for any common political approach between Russia and France in case of France deciding to seek rapprochement with Russia (granted, Russia is interested, which I doubt)--well, probability of such an arrangement is approaching if not zero, at least a trivial value. 

3. Removing sanctions from Russia by France changes absolutely nothing because Russia is not suffering from those sanctions at all and if somebody in France still thinks that removing sanctions is a valuable political and economic gesture, they better study what modern Russia is. Here is how France is "important" for Russia economically. 

Come on people, let's be serious, yes--some Airbus planes, some Renault, some other French stuff, but in a larger scheme of things France barely registers for Russia as an economic partner but the main question is not even this.

4. I understand that French ego is badly hurt currently, but this too will pass and France will soon forget about Russia and will crawl back to her master, where she belongs because France cannot act otherwise--it is not in France's nature. Cultural, political and military DNA of France has been damaged since De Gaulle's departure so much that France my generation used to know is simply not there anymore. 

So, I don't think Russia is interested in any way in France's maneuvering and posturing at this time because Russia has a much much bigger fish to fry and she really doesn't care about being picked up on the rebound, especially by a date which, as Tolstoy noted: "A Frenchman is self-assured because he regards himself personally, both in mind and body, as irresistibly attractive to men and women."  Obviously, France's elites somehow missed this tectonic shift in global power-balance which was ongoing for the last 15 years at least, and did not recognize the fact that France is not that important for a titanic power struggle in the China-Russia-Anglo-Saxon triangle. France traded remnants of her sovereignty in in 2009 by reintegrating into NATO fully and she is not leaving NATO. For that, one has to have a set of balls--a doubtful proposition for current French political class. There are many politicians in France, zero statesmen. But that is the problem of the combined West, not just of France.

P.S. Among numerous comments in Le Figaro I stumbled upon one which proposed that, maybe, Putin will fork money for these French subs. LOL. This is an exhibit A of "irresistibly attractive" syndrome, which is similar to American exceptionalism. Evidently the reader who posted this has zero awareness of Russia's SSK and SSN/SSGN/SSBN programs which dwarf in scale and scope anything France ever did in this field. I hope he posted it in jest. I doubt though.    

Harry J. Kazianis Really Needs A Muscle Relaxant-II, Or China The Omnipotent.

Two things coincided today after I and Arctic Fox had short exchange on the issue of US Navy and WestPac and I think it is a good idea to give this issue a separate post and discussion. First, what attracted attention was this piece in Russia's Vzglyad with a symptomatic title of Real Combat Capabilities of China's Navy Are Obviously Exaggerated (in Russian). The piece is written by a Russian naval architect Alexander Shishkin and, despite some debatable claims, raises some very important questions about what I was writing for years now and what my second book is about—that is the REAL balance of (military) power. Enough to quote here Shishkin's conclusion which I support completely.

Проблема № 1: подводные силы

В ходе строительства Большого флота у Китая не все идет гладко. Китайцы строят его, широко применяя испытанный метод «клонирования» (реверс-инжиниринга). Однако для этого необходимы исходные образцы, которые в ряде случаев невозможно получить ни за какие деньги и никакой хитростью. Прежде всего сказанное относится к технологиям, связанным с атомными подводными силами. По данным военно-морской разведки США (ONI), современные атомные лодки ВМС НОАК (пр. 094 и 093) по уровню шумности сильно уступают даже советским аналогам третьего поколения (пр. 667БДР и 671РТМК), в то время как у нас уже серийно строятся корабли четвертого поколения (до которых китайцам как до Луны) и корректируется аванпроект ПЛА пятого поколения.

Все объясняется просто: начав проектирование первой отечественной атомной лодки еще в 1952 году, мы уже не останавливались, несмотря ни на какие невзгоды, включая обрушение судпрома и обвальное сокращение ВМФ в «смутные времена». Да, корабли почти не строились, но в боровшихся за выживание НИИ и КБ, зачастую на чистом энтузиазме, продолжались работы над усовершенствованием паропроизводящих установок ядерных реакторов, паровых турбин и редукторов (ГТЗА), подшипников, гребных винтов, насосов, вентиляторов, амортизаторов, звукопоглощающих покрытий, гидроакустических комплексов и много чего еще. В результате в муках был рожден «Северодвинск» – возможно, лучшая многоцелевая атомная лодка в мире и родоначальница серии себе подобных, а китайцы остались далеко позади. Ходят слухи о готовящемся прорыве, начале крупносерийного строительства китайских атомных подводных сил. Бесспорно, производственные и финансовые возможности для этого есть, но как обстоят дела с техническими решениями? В научно-технический гений ученых и конструкторов КНР, способный обеспечить паритет по ТТХ с Россией и США, верится с трудом – иначе китайские товарищи не закупали бы и не копировали образцы иностранного вооружения и военной техники. Возможно, прорыв действительно произойдет, но уж точно не завтра, а когда в Китае появится Наука с большой буквы, на что уйдет не один десяток лет. А пока атомная подводная армада, представителей которой противник будет обнаруживать значительно раньше, нежели они его, будет играть роль бумажного тигра, пригодного разве что для парадов

Translation: Problem #1: submarine forces. Not everything is going according to plan in Chinese building of a Big Fleet. Chinese build this fleet using widely proven method of cloning (reverse-engineering). For this method, however, one needs source specimens, which are often impossible to obtain no matter how huge the sums of money or ruses are involved. This is especially true for nuclear-powered submarine technologies and forces.  In accordance to US Naval Intelligence, PLAN's modern SSNs of types 093 and 094 in terms of quieting are lagging substantially even behind Soviet third generation subs such as SSGN pr. 671 RTM(K) (NATO: Victor III) and SSBN of pr. 667 BDR (Delta-III), all this is while Russia builds series of 4^th generation nuclear subs, with China being nowhere near (in text: as far as the walk to the Moon) these technologies, with Russia already working on a technical project of the 5^th generation SSN.

The explanation to this situation is simple: We (Russia) started working on the first SSN in 1952 and since then never stopped, even despite all calamities, including the collapse of shipbuilding industry and precipitous reduction of the Navy during 1990s (Dark Times).  Yes, few ships were being built in those times, but often through sheer enthusiasm, the work on improvement of steam generators, nuclear reactors, steam turbines, gear systems, bearings, screws, pumps, fans, acoustic coatings, sonars and many other systems continued in many institutes and design bureaus. As a result, through hard labor, the Severodvinsk-class of SSGNs has been born—possibly the best nuclear submarine in the world today. Chinese were left far behind. The rumors of a coming breakthrough in a large series construction of Chinese submarine forces have been circulating for a while. Undeniably, manufacturing and financial capabilities are in place for this, but what about technological solutions? It is difficult to believe in scientific-technological genius of Chinese scientists and designers, which will be able to achieve tactical-technical parity with Russia and the US—otherwise Chinese comrades wouldn't be buying and cloning samples of foreign military technology. May be the breakthrough will happen eventually but assuredly not tomorrow but only when the Science with the capital S will appear in China and that will take not one decade. Meanwhile, PLAN's submarine armada which will be detected much earlier than it will detect the enemy, will continue to play the role of the paper tiger good only for parades.

There are many other valid points, including the issue of operational experience, which Shishkin makes in his rather very symptomatic piece and here is the REAL issue: yes, China is an economic giant with some of her achievements inspiring nothing but admiration. But being a military superpower is a very special kind of superpowerdom and especially within naval affairs where one faces, depending on geopolitical scenarios, such a massive naval superpower as the United States. Yes, US Navy has many problems, no larger ones than the issue of a doctrine and force structure, but as I stated not for once—the US Navy's crown jewel of its submarine forces is so impressive and is so much more advanced, for a foreseeable future, than its PLAN's counterpart, that it allows to speak of PLAN mostly in terms of A2/AD (much of which is dependent on Russian technologies). 

Impressive On The Surface

Yes, PLAN is able to build a tonnage equal to that to US Navy's, especially with PLAN investing hugely in its DDG and FFG surface force but HOW good is this surface force—nobody knows for sure. Yet there are reasons to suspect that Chinese weapon systems, which are knock-offs of Russian and Western technology, deployed on those ships do not have any record of combat use whatsoever and, actually, are not that good. Once all those factors are considered, I, personally, don't see (God forbids, of course, such a scenario ever becoming a reality) any way of how PLAN can possibly push US Navy (I omit here legal and moral issues) out of Western Pacific. This is an interesting issue to ponder, of course.

The second thing which coincided was, oh goody, Harry Kazianis, whose writing I described as alarmist 6 months ago precisely on the issue discussed above, yesterday went even further in envisioning a Russian-American Alliance against China. No doubt, China is a huge global player today but Kazianis goes a little bit overboard here, me thinks.

Next, there is the unfavorable balance of military arms that, as the years go on, will not favor Moscow. As China continues to receive some of Russia’s most advanced pieces of military equipment, like the S-400 air defense system and Su-35 fighter jet, China will most likely pilfer and reproduce such technology as it has done in the past—only to include it in indigenous weapons systems or sell it for far cheaper prices, competing directly against Russia in the lucrative arms sales market. Even more dangerous is that Russia’s own military technology could be used against it if a clash between the Russians and Chinese ever occurred—and history shows that is not out of the question.

I am sure Russia is very grateful to Mr. Kazianis for his sincere concern for Russia's competitiveness against China on the international weapons' markets but I am sure those in the know would still prefer a "Real McCoy" whenever deciding to buy big items such as state-of-the-art air defense systems, cutting edge fighter aircraft or submarines. It is simply the matter of quality and reputation. Russia's quality and reputation in this field are well-established. Moreover, I don't see how Russia and the US, after what have happened in the last 10 (in reality 25) years, can possibly be allied in any meaningful sense. For now avoiding a war could be a huge achievement in itself. Could China possibly, in the future, become a threat to Russia? Absolutely, and Russians know this but this does not necessarily involve the US. In the end, Russia finally has her civilizational project—Putin at Valdai was explicit about it. And, as is being discussed above and in a number of my posts in this blog, and in my new (hope to finish earlier next year) book on Balance of Power, China, for all her massive achievements is not yet true military superpower and it has nothing to do with the ability to project force, after all—Russia cannot do it globally too. Yet, few would doubt that Russia is a military superpower. 

So, Alliance between Russia and US, the thing of my naïve dreams in 1990s and early 2000s, the alliance which is predetermined historically and geographically, yet…here we are. The world as we know it is collapsing, the new, truly multi-polar world is emerging. In this world new balance of power will be very intricate and it will take some time and effort in allowing this new world order to settle without unleashing Armageddon—this is the most important foundation on which any kind of trust between US and Russia could be rebuilt. About alliances--later.