Mearsheimer, As Always ...

 ... has no clue. 

His ideas about "two conditions", especially about drones, are those of the amateur in warfare and its specific field of Air Defense. But then again, where can he get his data from? Of course from same amateurs as he is and they take it from visuals and 404 propaganda. Yet, this guy remains in continuous rotation in every media and delivers platitudes time after time. He was wrong about Russia so consistently, so outlandishly bad for the last 10+ years, that I don't even know how to explain to him what REAL air defense is and how it operates. He will not grasp it. He will not listen anyway. 

For Mearsheimer it is advised to get acquainted with Russia's Military Doctrine and to look up real situation on the battlefield and then try to figure out what are the objectives of Russia in SMO, and not from merely statements of Russian officials but based on verifiable data. I have news for him--and videos and testimonies, such as deputy commander of the 4th Brigade of the 6th Motor Rifle Division responsible for UAV systems and their operations (among many others) who actually implement daily what amounts to anti-drone measures, effectively UAV air-to-air combat in the tactical zone.

While REAL number of UAV leakers into Russia is expressed in SINGLE digits, but Mearsheimer knows nothing about. For the US those things are beyond the grasp, including this thing: 

MOSCOW, July 30. /TASS/. The number of FPV drones in the Russian troops has increased dramatically, now about 4 thousand are delivered per day, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov said.

This was in 2024, since then the production increased a number of times. Russia outproduces whole of combined West (NATO and shit) by an order of magnitude in all types of drones. Now let's get to 2026. This is Mr. Manturov:

The Russian military-industrial complex (MIC) has the ability to produce more than 15 thousand FPV drones per day. This was announced on June 3 by the First Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Denis Manturov. "Domestic enterprises can already ensure the supply of over 15 thousand pieces per day of FPV drones alone, and in 2023 such a number was produced per month," he said in an interview with the Kommersant newspaper.

For arithmetically challenged (forget about combat models used for planning of operations against NATO's aerial terrorism) this means: 365 x 15,000 = 5,475,000 drones per year. Combined West's economies will choke trying to match this. But then again, one must be situationally aware--a novelty thing for Pentagon, CIA and so called "analysts" such as Mearsheimer. And so he continues with platitudes. 

Now to the crux of the matter--Russia MAY strike Europe, and among targets could be some of those UAVs-producing facilities, but if it happens, it is going to be NOT the main consideration, and NATO's UAVs could be used MERELY as casus belli. Already now Russia blunted and mitigated all this "wall of drones"--yet another pathetic moniker for NATO's military impotence--if Russia will be striking Europe she will come in hard and main targets will be the remnants of NATO's industrial plant, thus solving a strategic task of a complete demilitarization of Europe. But here we enter the sphere of a strategic ambiguity which plays extremely well for Russia, who knows about herself and combined West orders of magnitude more than Mr. Mearsheimer. 

P.S. You all know that 404 "struck" today ... drum roll ... 46 "Russian tankers" in the Sea of Azov. I was incensed--why such a low number? There should have been at least 250 tankers hit and another 50,000 Russians killed around Moscow, which is about to fall. This "quick victory" thing becomes nauseating.