Pepe Did What Real Journalists Do...

 ... getting the story right! 

They have waited 10 long, suffering years to vote in this election. And vote they did, in massive numbers, certifying a landslide reelection for the political leader who brought them back to Mother Russia. VVP may now be widely referred to as Mr. 87%. In Donetsk, turnout was even higher: 88,17%. And no less than 95% voted for him.  

But here is what Pepe stresses the most:

This was of course a referendum. Donbass represents a microcosm of the solid internal cohesion of Russian citizens around the policies of Team Putin – while at the same time sharing a feeling experienced by the overwhelming majority of the Global South. VVP’s victory was a victory of the Global Majority.

It was a referendum. Read the whole thing at Sputnik...

I Will Be Very Brief.

Spanish newspaper Lavanguardia reports that the West will never supply Ukraine with US AD complexes Patriot "to not provoke Russia". For lay observer this rationale seems sound, but, of course, in the matters of politics in the West which is primarily smoke and mirrors and virtual reality, the main reason is completely different. It is here (in Russian) where Russian MoD demonstrates annihilation of the two launchers of the US supplied HIMARS and also a radar unit of one of the Ukie S-300. 

Patriot has a troubled history but apart from its "effectiveness" being questioned from the times of the First Gulf War, one inevitably is forced to recall a global FUBAR in Saudi Arabia in 2019. The failure against "home made" drones and missiles was so spectacular that one inevitably has to ask the question about how those Patriots will fare against a salvo of 3M14 Kalibr, let alone supersonic P-800 Onyx which also maneuvers if need be. You know the answer. Western weapon systems (together with its "operational art") have already sustained massive reputational losses--enough to recall barely 20% "effectiveness" of much touted wunderwaffe such as Switchblade or Javelins--so, nobody in the West needs a full demonstration by means of physical annihilation of Patriot PAC 3s, likely with NATO's personnel in them, by all kinds of Russian high precision stand-off weapons. And that IS the main reason why Patriots, at least for now, will not appear in Ukraine. Simple as that. So, no muddying waters and spin can hide now a systemic issue in not just tactical and operational, but doctrinal views of the combined West on modern warfare.

Small Things Which Speak Volumes.

You remember these girls, right?  

Then, of course, Natalia Kachura singing it (without Margarita Lisovina, who was pregnant and ready to give birth, AFAIK) with Victoria Daineko who "substituted" for Margarita. 

In a front of 80,000+ spectators in Luzhniki. On Victory Day Natalia received this:

... from the President of Russian Federation. This is the insight into what Kremlin thinks (as does overwhelming majority of Russian citizens) about SMO. More important than any "intelligence assessments". 

In related news, attention Ukie IPSO trolls and all other "assets" who read and try to trash this blog, here is Larry Johnson about all those super-duper boys encountering a REAL war. Yeah, I know, I reiterate--this is not Iraq or Afghanistan,  not even Vietnam. 

The “super sniper” who goes by the nom-de-guerre Wali rather boastfully went to Ukraine in March to fight on the Ukrainian side “because they want to be European and not Russian”. The “world’s deadliest sniper”, a former Canadian soldier with experience in Afghanistan, he was capable of killing up to 40 men a day. Well, he’s back home now and glad to be. Things didn’t go as he expected – not a fun holiday plinking lots of Russians and running up his score. Quite the opposite in fact. “Hell” says his mate “Shadow”. And no sniping either, just incoming huge explosions. “Shadow” won’t be returning to the front either – “I’ll just stay here in Lviv and be as useful as I can be.” “Wali” tells the same stories and the final experience described by “Shadow” seems to have been enough for him too.

Their stories mimic testimonies from many other foreign fighters who rushed into Ukraine following Zelinsky’s invitation. Chaos and disorganization are common complaints; many say that they have to equip and feed themselves; others that the Ukrainian high command treats them as expendable. The foreign groups themselves often suffer from internal confusions. The Russian strike on the Yavoriv training base on 14 March killed quite a few of them and many lost their taste for fighting and left afterwards. The British Sun newspaper goes over the top on one surrendered British “hero” but also reports no food, no ammunition and endless artillery bombardment. For many the message now is don’t go, it’s a trap.

You see, meeting Mr. Kalibr or laser-guided Mr. Krasnopol, or  T-72B3 rolling over you (believe me, I know, I had T-62 rolling over me and that one was "friendly") and being shell-shocked 24/7 is not the same as blowing Pushtu weddings from the drone sitting somewhere in Rammstein or Kuwait, or facing small arms fire from people in sandals. No, real war is when you experience uncertainty if you are being tracked by Kalashnikov Concern drones already or you are still in the general area of Liana's coverage and they decide in Moscow what to do with your location--turn it into the parking lot right now or wait a little bit longer and then send in the cavalry like Ka-52s and Mi-35s. You know, those "small things" at war with the enemy who not only shoots back but has a much bigger gun and really wants you dead. I bet that this is not how they thought about war in D.C.

Another Day--Another Tune.

No shit, pardon my French, and what did they expect? 

КИЕВ, 9 апр — РИА Новости. "Освобождение" Донбасса силовым путем приведет к массовой гибели мирного населения и военнослужащих, а это неприемлемо для Киева, заявил главнокомандующий Вооруженными силами Украины Руслан Хомчак. "Будучи преданным общечеловеческим ценностям и нормам международного гуманитарного права, наше государство на первое место ставит жизнь своих граждан", — цитирует его пресс-центр Генштаба. По словам Хомчака, украинские власти считают политико-дипломатический путь урегулирования ситуации в Донбассе приоритетным. 

Translation:  "Liberation" of Donbass by power means will lead to mass loss of life among civilians and military personnel--this is unacceptable for Kiev, stated  the Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Ruslan Khomchak. "Being dedicated to universal human values and norms of humanitarian law (I am under the table trying to get up....), our state places the life of its citizens on the first place (I tried to get up, fell again...)", the press-center of Ukraine's General Staff quotes him. In accordance to Khomchak, Ukrainian political power considers political and diplomatic way of settlement around Donbass to be a priority (I am still lying under the table, LOL).  

 

What happened and how this could be, that mighty Ukraine and her US handlers suddenly want to prioritize "political and diplomatic way". Well, here is some snippet of suddenly a much more peaceful mindset with a bit of explanation of this sudden (not really) change:

The United States on Thursday said it was discussing Russia’s military build-up near the Ukrainian border with Nato allies as fresh reports showed Russia deploying ballistic missiles to the area. Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, said that Washington was “increasingly concerned” about what has been described as Russia’s largest military manoeuvres in the area since the break-out of hostilities in eastern Ukraine in 2014. “Five Ukrainian soldiers have been killed this week alone. These are all deeply concerning signs,” Ms Psaki told reporters on Thursday.

Oh no, Jen, you got it all wrong, if you want to see how real "largest manoeuvres" by Russia look like, take a look at Vostok-2018. If Ukraine wants to face this after its whole command, control and communications will be annihilated, sure:

But that will be merely a finishing touch, mopping up of whatever will remain of Kiev regime's shell-shocked, demoralized and scattered forces, including all those "advisers" and volunteers from NATO. This is not a perspective anyone looks forward to, but that is how the armed forces of the 21st Century (Russian ones) will deal with the armed forces which are still stuck in 1990s of the last century, despite all attempts to put a lipstick on a pig. Both Kiev and Washington know that once serious shooting starts it will be Moscow which will be deciding what to do with Ukraine. 

US media may have an excellent expertise in creating a narrative (a euphemism for BS) but Russia has an excellent expertise in combined arms operations, and it is the latter, not the former, which in the end decides the issue, no matter how one tries to spin it. Good that they got the message. As I am on record for years--those people, be that Kiev or Washington, understand only one language or as Crocodile Dundee would say:

Just kids having fun(c). 

Now, jokes aside. A couple of the US Navy ships which should enter the Black Sea soon will be there primarily for recon mission and, possibly, in case the shit hits the fan, providing some data to Ukies. They will be big fat targets for the Russian Navy and attached forces, so I do not expect any serious conflagration, especially with Ukraine having shifted into a rear gear. And now that Ukraine' clown (aka President) is calling for a truce in Donbass (in Russian), one can clearly see that massive military power can decide a lot of issues and be a guarantor of a peace. This, however, doesn't resolve Ukraine's issue but this latest shitstorm gives Russia a good justification for an accelerated integration of LDNR with Russia, while keeping this whole clusterfuck of a situation frozen, which suites Russia just fine for now. As I said, Russia and Russians DON'T care about Ukraine and Ukrainians anymore and that is the only thing, in the end, which matters under these circumstances because, eventually, this Nazi shithole of a country Delenda Est.

While Everyone Discusses....

"Escalation" around Donbass, Andrei Raevsky (The Saker) already has four open threads on this issue, he provided a good summary of this whole, frankly rather predictable, tempest in a teacup. Here is Andrei's elaboration (part of it).

The West has already decided that Russia is the aggressor and Banderastan the victim of the Russian aggression.  Even if the Ukies launch a massive artillery and armor attack on the LDNR (or even Crimea), the West will claim with a straight face that the evil Russkies attacked the innocent Ukrainians.

I do not expect any NATO country to actually commit forces to to attack the Russian forces.  At most, the Poles (who else?!) to move a mostly symbolic force into the western Ukraine (Lvov, Ivano-Frankovsk).

However, the USA is not only weak, it is fantastically incompetent, ignorant and arrogant: a lot of high level western officials have declared that the USA/NATO will not “allow” Russia to threaten or attack the Ukraine.  To me, this tells me that there are those who believe that if the US/NATO actually do engage Russian forces Russia will “blink”, and cower down in fear.  Clearly, these people have never read a history book.

I am convinced that if the US/NATO attack Russian forces, the Russians will counter-attack not only the actual forces which attacked Russia, but also the command centers which gave this US/NATO command centers which gave the order to attack and coordinated it.

The biggest danger right now is that western politicians are completely misreading not only Putin, but all of Russia.  They are missing the key point: Russia cannot and will not retreat further, she won’t meekly declare that the Donbass or Crimea belong to the Nazi regime in Kiev.  Russia is ready, capable and willing to fight US/NATO forces if needed, including by using tactical and even strategic nukes.

It is a good itemization, especially pp.4-5. It is finally becoming a somewhat popular--which is a good sign--tune around at least some media quarters in the US that, as Matt Purple posits: Our Elites Couldn’t ‘Reset’ a Wall Outlet, Let Alone the Global Economy. Yes, not only that--Western elites have no clue on warfare. They really never had one in modern times and that is why they are dangerous. Can you imagine giving monkey a grenade? I doubt Ukies will launch much of anything but, honestly, if they did, especially against Crimea, it would be a fascinating bloodletting with the US leading Ukies to a slaughterhouse. But then again, for people in D.C. one hundred thousand more--one hundred thousand less killed means absolutely nothing because they lost distinction between good and bad long time ago, which is also, as stated above, amplified by a complete lack of the touch with reality especially in military aspect when related to Russia. 

Russia confirmed today that:

...it was in high-level contact with the United States about tensions over Ukraine and dismissed fears of a Russian military buildup even as it vowed to respond to new Ukrainian sanctions. U.S. President Joe Biden used a first phone call with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Friday to offer "unwavering" support after Western nations and NATO voiced concern over Russian troop movements near Ukraine. There has been a recent spike in violence in Ukraine's eastern Donbass region where Kyiv's troops have battled Russian-backed separatist forces in a conflict it estimates has killed 14,000 people since 2014. "We are in contact with the Americans, this is happening at a high level," Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was quoted as saying by Interfax news agency. He said Moscow had rejected as "unfounded" concerns raised by Washington over the situation. He accused Ukraine of failing to implement agreements over the region. "If our American colleagues were concerned about this, it would really help stabilise the situation," he was quoted as saying.

Generally speaking, the job of Russian diplomats at this stage is both simple and near impossible to complete--they need to convince a bunch of ignoramuses from the top of Biden Admin that they better defer to US military, which is better informed and much more aware of Russia's military capability, that in case bunch of neocons and liberal interventionists think that they can unleash war in Europe only--they better think twice, because not only very many US troops in Europe will die, but the war will come to the US proper. 

In related news, Marshal Shaposhnikov today completed a launch of 3M14, which, after flying more than 1000 kilometers, hit the target in Khabarovsk Region (in Russian). The frigate should join Russia's Pacific Fleet by the start of this Summer. Meanwhile Russian Baltic Fleet conducts drills of a surface group. 

You know, new combat training year and stuff, wink, wink. I think, for now at least, most of it is under control and, in the end, these are capabilities which define the issue. As for how the United States wants to appropriate Europe--as I am on record--Russia is increasingly disinterested in that peninsula. As one Chinese major newspaper recently stated Russia will feel herself much warmer in Chinese embrace. I think they have a point.

They May Try Again.

Everybody writes about it and the signs are there--Ukraine is trying to attack Donbass, again. As Patrick Armstrong notes today:

The team that gave us the Ukraine catastrophe is back in Washington, a US general is in Ukraine and heavy equipment is moving. A resumption of fighting would suit many in Kiev, Washington and NATO. But Moscow is not asleep and the Donbass defenders are prepared. I would expect, along with supplies, Moscow to make discreet but observable preparations. If that doesn’t stop an attack, Moscow has the long-range weapons to interdict assembly areas and routes and pretend deniability. If that doesn’t work, I would expect a reprise of 2008, only faster. What’s the West going to do in the face of a fait accompli? Shout more? Sanctions? A crushing defeat will produce reverberations in Kiev: very few of the Ukrainian forces in Crimea stayed loyal to Kiev and Zelensky was elected on a promise of making things better, not worse. A week should tell us which it is.

It is exactly the same team of one trick ponies in D.C. who assured that in the long run Donbass will join Russia's as her administrative region and that, this time, Russia may appear in person and this will "reverberations" in Kiev which will accelerate already proceeding apace the process of the statehood failure in Ukraine. Three factors define West's actions as of now:

1. Western Europe wants to "unload" this shithole of a country it created on Russia. Russians do not want to pay for this banana locality, so the only way to "coerce" Russians is make sure they defeat Ukraine. OK. Russian Armed Forces can wipe out Ukrainian Army in several days but, as Patrick Armstrong correctly observes, the Georgian scenario could be in store--Russia will demolish Ukraine's military and will bulldoze the remnants of Ukrainian statehood to the West.  

2. For the United States which increasingly reminds of Ukraine, just on a much larger scale, the factor of visceral Russo-phobia and desire to engage Russia's resources in any way in Ukraine--personal military encounter with Russia means many bad things for the United States and its military, hence proxies--should not be discounted. Plus, in a face of an economic catastrophe the Biden Administration needs some distraction--I told you, one trick ponies. 

3. Both the so called President Zelensky, who is a clown (literally) by his background and a bunch of people in his "Administration", controlled from the US Embassy in Kiev, are not people who actually have any grasp of the reality and act on pure neurotic instincts in their constant fight for a position at the ever shrinking trough of a disintegrating Ukrainian economy. So, Zelensky may decide to commit a political (and who knows which one additionaly) suicide and commence operations in Donbass seeing them as the only exit he has from a clusterfuck which Ukraine and its bosses from EU and US created in the midst of Europe. 

Too bad, as they say. This time Kremlin has one major factor playing for it, which was not the case in 2014--by different estimates, majority of Russians had it with Ukrainians. No, not with Ukraine, but namely Ukrainians as people. Ukrainians have got what they wanted when stating for the last seven years to Russian faces "We will never be brothers" (in Russian). Overwhelming majority of Russians today say--OK. In fact, these are the Russians now who do not want to be "brothers" and will have no compunction about demolishing, if it comes to this, Ukrainian Army. In 2014-15, there were still huge reservations on Russia's part in this regard, today--the hell with it. As is the hell with the EU and the United States. But I am sure if it comes to it Russia will start with high profile, but less costly in terms of personnel, strikes on whatever is left of Ukie Air Force and its bases, it will destroy Ukie Air Defence and then will burn all tanks, APCs and artillery at the line of contact. 

So, whatever Russia will do, ranging from behind the scene support for LDNR to the outright annihilation of Kiev regime, she has options and escalation dominance, Kiev does not. If EU stops Nord Stream-2 as a result of the United States pressure and the use of Donbass conflagration as means of coercing Europeans to commit energy suicide, as was stated not for once, for Russia the stoppage of the Nord Stream-2 is merely a bump in the road. As latest events in Russian-Chinese relations indicate, Russia finally reoriented herself economically to the East and it seems actual Russian-Chinese alliance is de facto in existence now.  

Russia and China have signed an agreement to build an international lunar space station that will be “open to all interested countries”, Beijing’s space agency announced on Tuesday.The two countries “will use their accumulated experience in space science, research and development as well as the use of space equipment and space technology to jointly develop a road map for the construction of an international lunar scientific research station (ILRS),” China National Space Administration said in a statement.Though no timeline is accorded to the project, the lunar science station is being envisioned as a “complex of experimental and research facilities created on the surface and/or in orbit of the moon,” Russia’s Roscosmos space agency was quoted as saying by CNN.

Those European nations, who would want to join any major Eurasian economic and science projects--they will be welcomed and the selection process already started. 

An Italian-Swiss pharmaceutical company has agreed to produce Russia's Sputnik V vaccine in Italy, the first such deal in the European Union, a trade body said Tuesday. "The vaccine will be produced from July 2021 in (pharma company) Adienne factories in Lombardy," northern Italy, a spokesman for the Italian-Russian Chamber of Commerce, Stefano Maggi, told AFP. "Ten million doses will be produced between July 1 and January 1, 2022," he added, describing it as the "first agreement on the European level for the production on EU territory of the Sputnik vaccine".

You see how easy it is? No coercion, no imposing oneself, as it was with Russia in 1980s through early 2000s. Nope, just keep the door open wide enough for people to see the opening and if they will step in is entirely up to them. It is so easy to live when you don't owe anything to anyone and you don't need anything from anyone.         

Words Are Also Deeds.

As late Senator Fulbright's truism goes: "words are deeds and style is substance insofar as they influence men’s mind and behavior." If anyone had any doubts about how Russia views combined West, they should really listen to what Russia's representative to United Nations Vasily Nebenzya called Paris and Berlin to their faces today. Speaking at the meeting of the UN Security Council dedicated to the anniversary of the Minsk Agreement, Nebenzya didn't mince the words:

"Те, кто поддерживает лишь одну сторону внутри украинского конфликта и потакает вопреки фактам ее болезненным фантазиям о российской агрессии, не могут называть себя посредниками. Вы, господа, скорее соучастники творимых Киевом преступлений против населения Донбасса"

Translation: Those, who support only one side in the Ukrainian conflict and indulge, contrary to all facts, Ukraine's sick fantasies about  Russian aggression, cannot call themselves intermediaries. You, gentlemen, are rather accomplices of crimes by Kiev against the population of Donbass. 

Do I need to comment on that? I will abstain for now, but let me remind you one funny fact. Six years ago I stated: 

The consequences of yet another defeat of VSU in Donbass can have a serious political fallout for Kiev junta and its US and European curators. In fact, some gangsters in Kiev may not even live to see themselves in a front of a jury for their war crimes. But the moment of truth is coming. Somebody has to answer for atrocity being committed against the people of Novorossia. They will answer.    

I didn't state it lightly, I meant it. This is the first broadside about actual consequences for those in the West who--and Germany and France played a crucial role in atrocity in Ukraine--from Russia and there are reasons for that. This is not an empty threat. Why there are reasons for that, I will not discuss it now, but knowing how Russians approach war crimes against Russia and Russians, you can bet your ass on Russia having already a serious dossier on personalities from Europe and US who participated and encouraged war crimes in Donbass. 

In related news, Pentagon deployed B-1B bombers to Norway to, and you guessed it already, "send message to Russia". Sure, nothing new here:   

(CNN)The US Air Force is deploying B-1 bombers to Norway for the first time in a move that sends a clear message to Moscow that the US military will operate in the strategically important Arctic region and demonstrate that it will defend allies in the area against any Russian aggression close to the country's border.Four US Air Force B-1 bombers and approximately 200 personnel from Dyess Air Force in Texas are being deployed to Orland Air Base in Norway, and within the next three weeks, missions will begin in the Arctic Circle and in international airspace off northwestern Russia, according to multiple defense officials.Until now, military missions over the Arctic had been largely staged out of the United Kingdom. The movement of forces much closer to Russia means the US will be able to react more quickly to potential Russia aggression, officials say."Operational readiness and our ability to support allies and partners and respond with speed is critical to combined success," said Gen. Jeff Harrigian, commander of US Air Forces in Europe and Africa.

Yes, that sends the "message", alright. But not the one US thinks it sends, the message is simple: Orland is around 1500 kilometers (as the crow flies) from Severomorsk and both Container and Rezonans Radar on Novaya Zemlya will have no problems with detecting and tracking B-1s or, for that matter, anything well before they arrive at the range of launching their JASSMs. But then again, there is always an implied deal here between the US and Russia defined as: if shit hits the fan--exchange Severomorsk for Norfolk. US Arctic deployments, including increasing the number of submarine patrols around Northern Fleet bases is an expected development, but the dynamics of both Northern Fleet's ASW, Air Defense and network capability are such that this kind of deployments are looked at with a degree of irony. In the end, there are always patrols by MiG-31BMs and SU-30SMs of the Northern Fleet aviation to deal with any kind of contingency. In the end, as the article about disruption of the US "multi-domain operation" against Russia states:

Одним из элементов разведывательно-ударной системы могут рассматриваться КРВБ «Кинжал». Их пуски способны осуществляться за пределами зон поражения ПВО противника, вне зон видимости радиолокационных средств с учетом значительной дальности поражения в едином интегрированном информационном пространстве, что позволит выбирать наиболее важные цели поражения в режиме реального времени. Пуск крылатых ракет может производиться с различных направленийс таким расчетом, чтобы обеспечивался одновременный их пролет государственной границы или одновременное поражение объектов противника. Относительно новым элементом разведывательно-ударной системы группировки войск (сил) является применение беспилотных летательных аппаратов, предназначенных для подавления РЛС и ЗРК, уничтожения авиации на земле и в воздухе, нарушения системы управления и связи, блокирования аэродромов, наращивания возможностей отечественной разведывательно-ударной системы в едином интегрированном пространстве.   

Translation: Aeroballistic hypersonic system Kinzhal can be considered one of the elements of recon-strike system. Kinzhal's launches can be conducted beyond zones of enemy's air defense and beyond visibility of its radar because of Kinzhal's long range actualized in the unified integrated informational environment, which allows to acquire the most valuable targets in real time. The launches of cruise missiles can be conducted from different directions to allow for simultaneous crossing of the state border or simultaneous destruction of enemy's targets. A relatively new element of rec on-strike system of the group of forces is deployment of the UAVs designed to suppress enemy's radar and air-defense complexes, and destroy aviation on the ground and in the air, simultaneously disrupting battle management and communications systems and blocking air fields, thus increasing capabilities  of own recon-strike system in the integrated battle-space. 

Those who read article attentively, they may have noticed that it primarily speaks about US weapon systems which are not even deployed. But in general, at the core of the article is this:

...исходя из сформулированных начальником Генерального штаба ВС РФ генералом армии В.В. Герасимовым принципов превосходства над противником, в том числе «постоянное упреждение противника и ведение превентивных действий (по принципу на шаг - два впереди)». Можно констатировать, что в создавшихся условиях Российская Федерация способна перейти от политики сдерживания потенциального противника ядерным оружием к политике устрашения нанесения ему неприемлемого комплексного поражения всеми видами вооруженияв рамках превентивных действий в условиях нависшей над Российской Федерацией угрозы локальной войны. 

Translation: Considering principles of superiority over the enemy formulated by the Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov, including "constant anticipation (forestalling) of the enemy, conducting of preventive actions on principle "for each step--two steps ahead", we can state, that under present conditions Russian Federation is capable of transitioning from the policy of containment of the potential enemy by means of nuclear weapons to the policy of deterrence (intimidation) by means of dealing unacceptable complex damage within the framework of preventive actions in case of the threat of local war to Russia. 

As you may have surmised already, the reason it is possible is simple--Russian weapons are simply faster, much faster than anything the United States has or will be able to deploy beyond 2025. Time frame for this article is given between 2025-2040. And we all know what is coming before 2025 to Russian Armed Forces, not to speak of what's coming after. As I am on record, even today Russia can basically wipe out by conventional means any NATO (US) force anywhere in Europe and Middle East in case of the United States deciding to commit suicide. This annihilation will come faster than USAF will be able to reach the ranges of launch for its weapons and this is precisely why there is little actual concern about deployment of whatever the US wants to deploy in Norway or anywhere else. That's show biz for ya, folks.      

Karen On Ukraine.

Remember me half-a-year ago? 

Ukraine can go to hell and enjoy her status as parents of Sumerian civilization and diggers of the Black Sea. She eventually will be completely de-industrialized and will, finally, reach her desired status of a complete independence from Russia. Although, I have to correct myself--for the first time on my memory--I can say that Russia finally gained her independence from Ukraine and for that one has to thank profoundly and sincerely Vladimir Putin and those people from his circle who made the only correct decision in 2014--not to move a single battalion on Kharkov. After all, unlike in Caucasus in 1980s and 1990s, the numbers were simply not there and Kharkov deserves to lose monuments to Zhukov and its other famous people most of who considered themselves either Soviets or Russians.      

Here is Karen Shakhnazarov speaking, don't forget to turn on CC. 

On A Hellhole Otherwise Known As Ukraine.

I didn't really want to touch this topic but since it is a sad, 5th year, anniversary of the war coming to Donbass and Banderites openly, with "style", destroying the monument to Marshal Georgi Zhukov in what at some point of time was called the most Russian city in Ukraine, Kharkov, I think it is worth revisiting this Ukrainian topic. 

We need this revisiting to shut down, finally, all those uber-patriotic voices which continue, albeit at much lower level, to whine about Russia not invading Ukraine in 2014 and trying to point out some hypothetical "benefits" of such an invasion. Those voices are wrong not only strategically or operationally, they are wrong (and ignorant) on a fundamental, cultural, level. 

We should start from dispelling any illusions on the account of the so called Novorossiya and, grossly inaccurate, picture of Eastern Ukraine as being taken hostage by Western Ukraine Banderistas--this picture is only partially correct, to put it mildly, and does not reflect reality on the ground in the Eastern Ukraine.  But first, let me give you some (very limited) pictures from my military life from 1988 through 1990 which resulted in a complete implosion of the USSR and war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. I will abstain here from commenting rights and wrongs--but that was our life then and I know how half-a-million people look like running at you. Also how to live and serve in the city under siege with a lot of bullets flying around.

The reason I go "there"--a very painful memories--is simple: for whatever reason, when people are unified with a single idea, however bad or good it is, they move in hundreds thousands, if not millions and the place becomes hell. Here are some photos from Baku where Baku garrison, including cadets from my Alma Mater, and, of course, formations of MVD and DoD, were dealing with then, starting from 1988. 

Disarming. Some of our people died. 

Naval cadets at block-post.

Our guys (naval cadets--I was an officer then), actually, had one block-post literally next to our high-rise--very eventful nights, to put it mildly. Apart from huge numbers of demonstrating people, as you may have already guessed, the next step is always--going for the guns and other weapons--that is what people in turmoil do. Mind you also, events in Caucasus which shook and dismantled USSR were happening in a still fairly well structured security-wise Soviet Union.  And here is a tactical question: in the immediate aftermath of Crimea getting back home in 2014, the number of people protesting at Kharkov's main square (Kharkov is about the same size as Baku 1.5+ million people) never reached anything higher than 50,000 people at the most active days (compare this to Maidan in Kiev--order of magnitude more people), not to mention the fact that apart from taking the main building of regional administration, very little was done to ensure that "uprising" will be successful. There is a dramatic contrast here between, almost equal to Kharkov's size, Donetsk and much smaller Lugansk, who, while having massive demonstrations, went for the jugular: weapons, control of key administrative, financial, transport, military installations. They also formed militias immediately. This was not the case with allegedly "Russian" city of Kharkov. Why? 

The answer is very simple: same as with Odessa which took its rape on May 2, 2014 never getting off its knees--Ukrainians DID happen as a political nation. As Rostislav Ishenko astutely observes--these are Russian speaking Ukrainians for who Ukraine is a self-contained prime value in their lives (in Russian) and they, in 2014, didn't want to go to Russia, period. Those are majority in what today is known as Novorossiya and these are not the people Russia needs to spend blood and treasure "liberating". In fact, any invasion by Russia for the sake of liberating allegedly "suffering" from svidomyte and Neo-Nazi dictatorship people there would have been a catastrophic mistake, since those people didn't want to be "liberated" and were completely content with Ukraine as their unique nation-state. In fact, should have Russian Army annihilated VSU (Ukrainian Armed Forces) in 2014, which would have resulted in catastrophic losses for VSU, that would have been precisely these rather dormant Ukrainians who would immediately radicalize to a Western Ukraine Banderist Neo-Nazi level. Not to interfere was a smart and wise decision by Kremlin, despite hysterical appeals by arm-chair "strategists" and other uber-patriots. 

Today, at the dark fifth anniversary of the war in Donbass, we can observe clearly both correctness of the decision not to interfere, unlike it was in Donbass, where primarily Russian people rose up, in Ukraine and to let EU and US deal with the economic and moral hellhole Ukraine has become today. We may wax political or philosophical whatever we want, but to illustrate what this all means I can give an example, that in my brigade, the chief of counter-intelligence department (Special Department-Osobyi Otdel), Captain 2nd Rank, himself an Azeri was not serving USSR since 1988 so much as providing crucial information to Azeri nationalists. Just one example of many, same things were happening in Armenia and all over Caucasus--very many people were changing loyalties. Dzhokhar Dudaev rings the bell? And here is the catch, these are not anymore Ukrainians who rejected Russia and Russians, most of who from Ukraine either live in Donbass or already moved to Russia, but these are Russians today, unlike it was the case in 2014, who do not want anything in common with Ukrainians. Yes, Putin may continue with his politically necessary gospel of Russians and Ukrainians being brotherly peoples--this is simply not true.  An overwhelming empirical evidence testifies to this.

Now that the Ukrainian economy is pretty much done and Ukraine has finally turned into a complete economic, cultural and intellectual shithole, many Ukrainians, those very same Ukrainians who in 2014 didn't want to be liberated, begin to grasp this simple reality and it hurts, badly. I wrote about it in 2017, today it is crystal clear--the fate of Ukraine is eventual disintegration, possibly due to a civil war (or wars) and, inevitably, Eastern Ukraine trying to whore itself out to anyone (not that it is not being done as I type this), while Western Ukraine will inevitably be divided between Poland, Hungary and Romania--let them deal with Banderistas--Eastern Ukraine will remain, well, irrelevant for Russia. I don't recall who drew this excellent parallel recently but Ukraine today is like that proverbial dead cat whose corpse neighbors throw over the fence at each-other's property to avoid dealing with rotting dead feline. This is exactly what is happening now between EU, USA and Russia. Russia is NOT going to put a single ruble into Ukraine (or whatever will be left of it) and once Nord Stream-2 and other pipe-lines are completed, Ukraine can go to hell and enjoy her status as parents of Sumerian civilization and diggers of the Black Sea. She eventually will be completely de-industrialized and will, finally, reach her desired status of a complete independence from Russia. Although, I have to correct myself--for the first time on my memory--I can say that Russia finally gained her independence from Ukraine and for that one has to thank profoundly and sincerely Vladimir Putin and those people from his circle who made the only correct decision in 2014--not to move a single battalion on Kharkov. After all, unlike in Caucasus in 1980s and 1990s, the numbers were simply not there and Kharkov deserves to lose monuments to Zhukov and its other famous people most of who considered themselves either Soviets or Russians.   

South Front, Say What? -II

I was in communication with Paul Craig Roberts all morning on the matter which I will describe below. I already had to pay attention to Southfront three weeks ago, after whoever Southfront are behind the wall of HTML code, produced a "masterpiece" of strategy which required from me some clarifications. You know, like explanation of basic geography and ranges of Intermediate Ballistic Missiles (not that they will be needed, but still) in relation to Russia being "far" (about 80 kilometers) from the US, remember?

That is a small intro to the "competence" of people who are writing  for Southfront. Then, of course, out of curiosity, I read SF's "analysis" on Russian submarines, which turned out to be a collection of memes and myths propagated in Russia by some, literally, mentally unstable people, and I would have left it alone if not SF's latest piece by some Vladimir K on current Russia's slide towards her end. So, here is my strictly personal opinion on this piece of "analysis". It is written by:

1. Utter amateur;

2. Sectarian from either Navalny or Girkin (aka Strelkov) totalitarian sects;

3. Combination of two above, which is even worse.

This is not to say that Russia doesn't have problems, she sure does. Some of those problems are serious and require long term solutions. But let's start with small detail SF decides to obscure for its readers, here is a quote from transcript of SF video based on this alarmist and defeatist piece:

According to VCIOM, a state pollster, in January 2019, Putin’s confidence rating was only 32.8%. This is 24% less than in January 2018 when it was 57.2%. At the same time, the confidence rating of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev was 7.8%. The approval rating of his cabinet is 37.7% while the disapproval rating is 38.7%. Opposition sources show data, which is far worse for the current Russian leadership.

1. Well, it is all fine and dandy, and the picture looks rather grim, that is until one gets to actual poll as is reported by reputable Ria.Ru (in Russian). Once one begins to look at numbers the picture becomes rather very different. For starters, the so called "confidence rating" in Putin is slightly differently formulated in Russia and sounds as Наибольшим доверием, that is Most Trust. Well, 32.6% of Russians have MOST trust in Putin. How many of them have simply trust or trust Putin somewhat remains up for a debate, but actually, the number which matters is good ol' Approval Rating which for Putin is....drum roll...62.2%, with 28.8% disapproving. So, when we divide 62.2 by 28.8 we get 2.16 times more people approving than those disapproving. Why SF "forgot" these numbers remains a complete mystery to me, because although lower than usual, 62.2% is a robust, in fact vast majority, approval rating for a President, even if one considers a number of painful (granted debatable) economic decisions which were made in 2018.  

2. I will omit the "analysis" which invokes for some reason long terminated from their positions some stupid bureaucrats, such as Glatzkih. No serious analyst would ever invoke the fact of the run of the mill stupid low level bureaucrat being stupid, and, actually fired because of that as a sign of a crisis, while in reality it was public outcry and media reporting it properly which worked that well in getting those morons to answer. I guess, far from crisis, this is a good testimony to emerging Russian civic society which has a good grasp now of own interests and has a developed sense of honor and self-worth. Ahh, you see--glass half-empty, half-full dichotomy. But let me just point out, I will omit today elaboration on that issue, the main sign of numbers 1, 2 and 3 listed above, testifying to a complete lack of not only strategic awareness but of self-awareness of those who concocted such an emotional proclamation, or manifesto, and tried to sell it as an "analysis", which it is certainly not. Here, I quote:

The 2014 events in Crimea showed to the Russian population that its state is ready to defend the interests of the nation and those who describe themselves as Russians even by force of arms. This was the first case when this approach was openly employed in the recent history of Russia. Therefore, the population was enthusiastic and national pride was on the rise. However, the Kremlin failed to exploit these gained opportunities and did not use them to strengthen the Russian state. In fact, up to February 2019, the policy towards eastern Ukraine has been inconsistent. At the same time, Moscow continues to lose its influence in post-Soviet states. This can be observed in both the Caucasus and Central Asia. Even, their close ally, Belarus, occasionally demonstrates unfriendly behavior and focuses its own efforts on the exploitation of economic preferences granted by Russia.

3. It is an utter BS which could only have been written by people who have no clue on real military operations and how the national security of such power as Russia is formulated. I elaborated on a number of occasions that if not perfect, Moscow's handling of Ukraine was, while initially fully situationally-driven, was well-thought out the more the crisis continued. In this case I would suggest to read real professional and, in fact, superb current thinker, Rostislav Ishenko who knows the subject extremely well and thinks as a statesman must think, not some incognito amateur frustrated by things not going his way. 

             Donbas, Military-Political Aspects (in Russian)

Especially this phrase:

Но может быть, можно было хотя бы Донбасс по крымскому примеру интегрировать в Россию? Нет, нельзя. Как уже было сказано, легитимные региональные органы власти восстание не поддержали. В руках восставших в результате оказалась только примерно треть от общей площади двух областей и половина от той территории, на которой проводился референдум о независимости. Признать их и интегрировать в Россию (а самостоятельно они не выживут) можно только в рамках подконтрольной на сегодня территории. Поддержать наступление ДНР/ЛНР до границ областей, означает начать войну, ведущую к разделу Украины, только на долю России выпадет даже меньше, чем большая часть Новороссии – всего две области. Остальные последствия, возможно, немного мягче, но в целом те же. Кроме того, надо понимать, что заключая мир, на условии интеграции Донбасса, Россия практически мирится с потерей остальной части Украины навсегда (настолько, насколько в политике в принципе можно говорить о навсегда). То есть, потери те же, а профит ещё меньше, чтобы не сказать, что его вообще нет.  

I have suggestion for people, whoever they are, who write all kinds of "analysis" of this nature for ever increasing number of "analytical" outlets such as SF--I will quote myself from my discussion with Paul Craig Roberts 6 months ago:

And here is my conclusion: being former military I give a full recognition to the fact that I am merely a writer who, as well as Bagdasarov, or any other “analyst” have no any access to a daily top secret briefings by Chief of General Staff and Russia’s intelligence to Vladimir Putin. Patriotism or, even, some residual professionalism is not a substitution to having a full situational awareness provided to Supreme Commander by thousands upon thousands people who even risk their lives to provide a key information for making this one and only right decision to prevent the world from annihilation. Russia knows where the Unites States is today and, when looking back at the last 5 years in world’s history, I see Russia as that proverbial cat finishing off the chicken, while those who are supposed to use the force cannot do so and speak loud and carry no stick. This chicken is Pax Americana. Russia will continue to do what she does, because it works, and because she knows how to fight wars, she knows how to defend herself and because we all live in a different world today, the way Russia, not the US, sees it.

Starting with what is known as calibration of own views and giving cognizance to a simple fact that one is simply not on the decision making level in Russia as President and Security Council--I am fully aware of that in regards to myself--would be a good exercise in assessing reality before posting some frustrated incoherent blabbering as some "analysis" as SF "provided" for the consumption of a PutinVseSlil crowd.

P.S. I am not going to comment to SF "analysis" directly pulled from fantasies of one imbecile, who I know, on Russian subs, because it is difficult to comment on a pile of BS. 

UPDATE: No comments.  

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval rating has risen to 64.8 percent – the highest so far in 2019 – after his annual address to the Russian parliament.