This Is What Bothers Them ...

 ... especially London which saw its bet (a house that is) burn. 

Oil and gas revenues of the federal budget in April increased by 239 billion rubles, or almost 40%, according to data published by the Ministry of Finance. The reason for the increase in fees is the price of Urals, which increased in March (taxes are paid with a monthly lag) to $77 per barrel. This is the first monthly increase in oil and gas revenues caused by the conflict in the Middle East that began at the end of February. In May, additional revenues should grow further - in April, Russian oil cost an average of $95 per barrel. In general, for the four months of 2026, the subsidence of oil and gas budget revenues by the same period in 2025 still remains, but then it will decrease rapidly. In April, federal budget tax revenues from the production and sale of oil and gas amounted to 855.6 billion rubles, which is 238.6 billion rubles, or 39%, more than it was in March, follows from the data released by the Ministry of Finance on May 6.

How much is R 1 Trillion, which Russia will surpass just about today or tomorrow. People who still do primitive math in USD will necessarily divide 1 trillion by a current Ruble to USD exchange rate and will get roughly $ 13.5 billion. Still huge sum but completely misleading, because Russians do not really pay that much attention to USD domestically and they love their Rubles, which, when adjusted for at least PPP, which still doesn't reflect the economic reality, because these Rubles will be spent primarily domestically, the actual "volume" of this sum grows dramatically. 

E.g. This is the newest pr. 885M (Yasen M class) submarine Perm'. At the outset it is a designated carrier of 3M22 Zircon and its further modifications. 

It is state-of-the-art. Her cost? R 41 billion. Just to demonstrate--if Russia would have decided to use all R Trillion on such submarines only, Russian Navy would have received ... 24 such submarines. What does the US Navy get for the exchange rate of $ 13.5 billion? Well, it gets one single CVN of Gerald Ford class (I will abstain from comments here), or it gets  around 2.3 Virginia-class subs or five Arleigh Burke-class DDGs. For the same R 1 Trillion (or $ 13.5 billion) Russia can get 23 project 22350M (Gorshkov M class FFG) or as they call it Super-Gorshkov hybrid (heavy frigate-light DDG) which can load all of its 64 VLS with all kinds of hypersonic weapons and is capable with a single salvo sink something like Marine Nationale. That's just one frigate out of those 23. But you get my drift, right?

So, for a "final blow" and those who still don't get the message. Of course, Russia has poverty and poor people, of course Russia has shit-holes. Everybody does, but what is being missed constantly--outright extreme wealth in Russia is not admired, especially when flaunted. Yet, lookie-lookie, that's from the World Bank. 

Somebody, get those ignoramuses to Russia (how about starting from Sarah Paine) and get them a tour (some CIA guys can join) of modern Russia from Kaliningrad to Vladivostok to get a grasp on why Russia is a first world high earning industrial society. Have a psychiatrist  accompanying them, because they may need help due to a severest cognitive dissonance. Don't get them to Moscow or St. Petersburg immediately, start easy on them, like Khabarovsk or Omsk, let them acclimatize. 

They Are Free To Discuss ...

... whatever they want. But as some media report, these are Europeans when they recognized that there will be no gas from Qatar and no gas from Russia. 

Obviously, the situation with the Straight of Hormuz is rather telling.

And the whole thing weighs heavily on Europe. 

OSLO, March 3 (Reuters) - The impact on energy flows of U.S. and Israeli military attacks on Iran and Iran's drone ​and missile launches against its neighbours could reopen ‌debate in the European Union over banning Russian natural gas imports, Norway's energy minister said on Tuesday. European gas prices have jumped 75% ​this week, hitting multi-year highs as hostilities in ​and around Iran have impacted gas exports from ⁠the Gulf.

Europe can surely "reopen debate" and debate this debate until hell freezes over, but as Russian anecdote goes about a single babushka being a lone seller of sunflower seeds at the completely empty marketplace--responding to a dude who complained that her sunflower seeds are too expensive, she suggested him to "walk around the market, find a better price".

Poor, poor dear this Mark Champion (a rather pretentious second name for a guy who is a sore loser) of Bloomberg, he laments:

The only winner in the US and Israel's conflict with Iran is Putin, writes Bloomberg. Columnist Mark Champion argues that US Navy strikes on Iranian targets reduce the likelihood of arms supplies to Ukraine and deplete American missile stocks. This also fuels the rise in global oil and gas prices, which benefits Russia. A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could revive the market for Russian energy, providing an opportunity to sell unsold oil.

This is what happens when you have a fraudulent "degree" from Georgetown in "Russian studies" and know nothing but more or less proper grammar when writing about things you have no clue about. We knew it was bad, but now it does disintegrate and the only thing they have left is spin. US legacy media are complicit in covering up pedophilia and what amounts to a treason by ruling class, because of that they are one and the same. There is no distinction. Per Macron and France ... LOL. 

A Friend Of Mine...

... sent me Daniel Larison's piece at his blog Eunomia where he contemplates economic sanctions. He refers to The Economist piece titled: Are sanctions on Russia working? My friend correctly states and I quote him:"Sanctions are another example of the intellectual bankruptcy of the Western ruling elite. Like a child with a hammer in a room full of glasses and dishware. As you never cease to point out, almost no one in Western top circles has a well-trained mind. Way too many law and business degrees (or worse, in political voodoo science!), with very poor background in math, physics, chemistry and such. They do not understand the energy-material world -- thermodynamics and the importance of those 92 elements." And Larison's piece, while concluding correctly that:

The flaws of broad sanctions have been well-known for a long time, so it wasn’t as if it took imposing them on Russia to recognize their limitations and ineffectiveness. It was entirely foreseeable (and foreseen) that waging economic war on a country as large and powerful as Russia would have adverse consequences for the senders of the sanctions and for the entire world. We know from experience that targets of the harshest sanctions regimes also tend to be the most intransigent, and broad sanctions often backfire and produce more of what they are supposed to discourage. We also know that sanctions usually do not really “work” at all in the sense of changing the target’s behavior in the way that the senders want it to change. Given all that, it should not come as news that the “sanctions weapons has flaws.” The question should be why we continue to use a weapon as blunt and crude as sanctions at all.

Is misplaced and, in fact, is somewhat misleading, because Larison's statement 'It was entirely foreseeable (and foreseen) that waging economic war on a country as large and powerful as Russia would have adverse consequences for the senders of the sanctions and for the entire world', is utterly false. Foreseen by who? If Larison has a short memory, for all my respect for his generally humanist aspirations, facts testify to exactly opposite. The whole Ukrainian "strategy" of the United States and EU since 2013 was and is based on a complete miscalculation and inability to recognize either the scale or power of Russia be that in economic or military terms. The Economist, as well as most of Western publications related to "economic" affairs (Forbes, WSJ et all) have been consistently wrong on "foreseeing" anything and, in fact, played a crucial role in creating an alternative universe narrative on economy of Russia and impact of sanctions. 

As Russians say today, when responding to the question of if economic sanctions work, 'yes, they do--as a boomerang'. But the best example of a systemic failure of Western economic, military, intel or media institutions to "foresee" anything is his very own (I guess he is employed there) Quincy Institute for (allegedly) Responsible Statecraft. Materials published in it re: SMO are the Exhibit A of a complete detachment from the military and economic realities of Russia. If a complete sophomoric delirium about SMO provided there by such "scholars" as Anatol Lieven is understandable, the position of a former cadre officer of the US Army Colonel Andrew Bacevich hardly differs from propaganda being spewed by other US military "experts" such as generals Petraeus or Keane. And that brings us to my position of the last decade at least--the West has a systemic cognitive problem, which, in the end, is a problem of competencies and professionalism. In foreign policy the United States is utterly incompetent because, and I quote Larison himself:

Unfortunately, the U.S. is remarkably bad at understanding these things accurately. This is not just a Trump administration failing. Most American politicians and policymakers routinely misjudge the intentions and goals of our adversaries, and they often invent a fantasy version of the regime in question that leads them astray again and again. One reason for this is that it is simply easier to project our assumptions about what a regime must want than it is to make the effort to see things as they do. Another reason is that many of our politicians and policymakers mistakenly think that if they try to understand an adversary’s views that must somehow mean that they sympathize with the adversary or condone its behavior. Instead of trying to know their enemy, our leaders would prefer not to for fear of being “tainted” by the experience. This lack of knowledge is compounded in some cases by the absence of normal diplomatic relations with the adversary. Our leaders are encouraged to take this self-defeating approach to international problems by a political culture that rewards the people that strike tough-sounding-but-ignorant poses about a problem and marginalizes those that seek to understand it as fully as possible.

And as Larison's "own" Responsible Statecraft outlet exhibits consistently, not only the US is "remarkably bad" in understanding its "adversaries", but truth is--often doesn't know basic facts of real economy, modern warfare, history and diplomacy, but most remarkably, fails to understand its own status, scale and position vis-a-vis the world outside. This huge issue cannot be rectified by mere "rethinking", US machine in producing real statesmen is broken completely and requires a complete removal. It failed miserably to react and adapt to tectonic shifts of modern world and exceptions in "foreseeing" things merely confirm the rule of modern American "elites" being a failure across the board. But then again, what did one expect with "scholars" like Lieven. 

In related sanctions matters, however, this is funny: 

Russia is flaring natural gas at the Portovaya plant near the Finnish border while drastically cutting gas flows via the Nord Stream pipeline to Germany, a Rystad Energy analysis shared with BBC News showed on Friday.  The plant northwest of St. Petersburg is flaring an estimated around $10 million worth of natural gas per day—gas that would have gone to Germany otherwise. 

Aw, poor-poor dears, they cannot sleep knowing that Russia can afford to do so, because Russia is not going to supply her enemies who conduct proxy war against her, and the window is closing fast. This, not to mention the fact that Europe has been written off by Russia, is what really matters. The US is next, but only after some necessary arrangements. 

UPDATE: Michael Hudson, after reading this piece sent to me (initially through Andrei Raevsky) this addendum: 

I have a comment ....about ... column today saying that sanctions don’t work. I think that’s not the point when it comes to U.S. sanctions. Suppose a bully is seen beating up people. Someone tells him, “This won’t change that guy’s behavior.” The bully will reply: “I don’t care. I like to hit people. That’s my philosophy.” I think this is the spirit behind US sanctions.

I agree, it is a philosophy. Especially, as Hudson adds these comments sent to me:

After I wrote it, I thought of some more examples. Take torture. Every country (and religion) has its own signature mode of torture). It’s pretty much known that torture gets false confessions. But nations still do this. Iran under the Shah has a “hot plate,” tying victims to what was a big frying pan and turning on the heat. The US has water boarding. It was pointed out to me that one country was exceptional. Russia simply used sleep deprivation to break down resistance to giving information. Apparently the Americans found that this was simply no fun. It’s like air force generals who like to bomb, and find opportunities everywhere. I’ve known plenty of these guys – and when it comes to Russia, it’s really part of a psychodrama of anger and revenge.

Pay attention to the highlighted conclusion by one of the best economic minds of our generation. He gets it 100%. Remember this? 

Never underestimate the drive to be "the best", when you know you cannot be. The psychodrama unfolds...

Take a Note.

Hungary begins to prepare. 

The Hungarian government has set up a new Defense Council led by Prime Minister Viktor Orban which has been given special decision-making authority, the PM’s press secretary Bertalan Havasi announced on Tuesday. As quoted by Hungarian news agency MTI, Havasi explained that the council was created in response to the military conflict in Ukraine and the ensuing economic crisis in Europe. He also noted that increased pressure from migration had made it necessary to pay special attention to protecting Hungary’s security and sovereignty in the coming years. The council will deal with proposals and reports regarding national security, public safety, border controls, national defense, migrant cases, natural disaster protections, counter-terrorism efforts and defense developments. "The Defense Council is a forum for government political decision-making with special powers, the chairman is the prime minister, and the secretary is the chief national security adviser," Havesi explained.

Now, apart from this news, get this--a very positive, if not to say more--very pro-Hungarian article at Ria by Petr Akopov, titled (in Russian):

Европа еще пожалеет, что не понимала по-венгерски

Which is: Europe will be sorry that it didn't understand Hungarian. It is a remarkable piece, plus, Hungary's Foreign Minister just visited Moscow, for gas talks, with Russia immediately responding that Moscow will provide all Hungary's energy necessities starting from the increased volumes of gas Hungary asked for recently. But...

MOSCOW, July 21. /TASS/. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto on Thursday said he didn’t discuss during his visit to Moscow the possibility of a meeting between his country’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Russian President Vladimir Putin. He made the statement at a news conference following a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. "As for the summit, I don't have that mandate," Szijjarto said to a question from a reporter of the Hungarian news agency MTI. My mandate [at the talks in Moscow] applies only to gas purchases."

It is clear that gas issue was just one of the topics discussed in Moscow. Plus, of course, all those pro-forma calls for cease-fire in Ukraine. What was discussed behind closed doors remains, for now, a matter of speculations but we know that is was discussed.

Some Explanations Re: The Saker.

I need to offer some elaborations on the issue which many who also post on my discussion boards do not understand. A few people like to constantly negatively react to Andrei Raevsky's writing. This is those people's right, and I completely am fine with constructive (I underscore it--not some propaganda BS spewing) criticism of my writing as well, as with correcting my mistakes, which I make sometimes. We all do. As any people we have our biases and even delusions. I, certainly, have mine, but so does The Saker. E.g. I and him we will never settle on the account of Solzhenitsyn who for majority of Russians is a traitor, falsifier of history, and open Vlasovite--a euphemism for Nazi collaborator--not to mention the fact that he is a mediocre writer. But this does not prevent me from recognizing Andrei Raevsky as one of the best analytical voices in Anglosphere when it comes to geopolitical analysis and you can often see in his writing the use of professional methods of developing a hypothesis. It is a rare skill. 

This is not to mention the fact of his whole site being an extraordinary resource for people who seek truth and Andrei's yesterday's long (justifiably) and well written piece is a good indication of his excellent and very rare craft. Do I always agree with him? Absolutely not, there are some issues which I have disagreement with, but that is absolutely normal and is merely a small detail in a much larger and much more important work he does. So, for The Saker's critics, when criticizing, concentrate on his points in substance, meaning providing a constructive criticism, which addresses the problem, not his, or, for that matter, my biases. Present the case, not the just Boolean opinions of "right-wrong", "yes-no", but at least some argumentation to the contrary. That is a healthy and judicial approach to any discussions and upholding a generally good intellectual level which exists in my blog. I am sure Andrei Raevsky and his team will deal with Saker's blog discussions on their own. This is the issue I needed to address after seeing some reactions on Saker's excellent write-up yesterday. I hope this my advice will be heeded. In the end, recall that many of you found me and my little blog to a large degree thanks to Andrei Raevsky, for which I am very grateful to him.  

Now, to this 20%. 

Russian energy major Gazprom will stop the operation of second Siemens turbine, the company announced on Monday. As a result supply through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline will not exceed 33 million cubic meters per day from July 27, business daily Kommersant has reported, corresponding to 20% of the pipeline's capacity.

I repeat, I do feel for Germans, but let me disclose one secret--one of my acquaintances, a man of extraordinary background and a very notable figure, who is German, had to bitterly admit, during one of our many conversations, that until Germany collapse economically and population as a whole will feel the brunt of this collapse, no political changes are possible. But Germany does need this change desperately because at issue is, actually, a survival of Germans as people. Yes, this is how serious this all is. 

But Russia DOES NOT anymore bear responsibility for Germany because in the last decade Germany did everything to not only alienate Russia, but support a regime and powers which wish Russia and Russians disappearance as people and culture. Germany "refashioned" itself back to the times of Drang nach Osten, and even worse iteration of it--genocidal views of Nazis. Russians, arguably, are the best people in the world when it comes down to recognizing an existential threat to themselves. Germany now is a part of this threat:

Ukraine has received its first shipment of German ‘Gepard’ anti-aircraft systems, as well as thousands of rounds of suitable ammunition, according to a statement made by Defense Minister Aleksey Reznikov on Monday. “We are waiting for the first 15 Gepards. Three have arrived in Ukraine today. They are already at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” Reznikov said on national television. “These are anti-aircraft systems, for which tens of thousands of rounds of ammunition have been transferred to us.” Germany had previously promised to deliver at least 30 ‘Gepard’ air-defense tanks to Ukraine. The first shipment of 15 tanks is expected to have arrived before the end of this month, while another 15 are to be delivered in August.

Gepards are obsolete weapon systems which will have no impact on the outcome, but the fact that Germany supports genocidal anti-Russian Kiev regime says it all. For Russians Germany is THE ENEMY now and will be treated as such. This, however, in no way reflects on many Germans who immigrate to Russia and are met with open arms.

Bernhard Did An Excellent Write-up.

On this whole situation with VSU's "victories" and how Western media are beginning to recognize a horrendous truth (for them) behind demolishing of VSU, which at this stage is literally being pummeled into utter submission. Bernhard discusses fighting doctrines of Russia and NATO and notes (correctly):

'Western' doctrine, which is essentially U.S. doctrine, is betting on air supremacy. The enemy's air defenses get destroyed in first few days of the war. After that enemy formations get wiped out by applying a huge amount of aerial bombing against them. Russian doctrine never has believed in air supremacy. Russia itself has excellent air defenses so it knows what it is talking about. To destroy enemy formations Russia applies artillery, lots of it.

He also compares combat organization of the main fighting units of Russian and US armies and, again correctly, arrives to the state-of-the-affairs for VSU. 

Unless the defending forces are fully under armor or extremely well dug in, as they had been for eight years at the Donetsk frontline, they have no hope to hold out against Russian artillery. Since the Russian army broke through the immediate frontline the Ukrainians have lost the protection of fortified dugouts and are on the run.  None of the above is new and it was the reason why I and other could easily predicted that the Ukrainian army would lose the war.

Read the whole thing, it is an excellent write up from Moon of Alabama. 

In related news, as was anticipated, the US decided not to play with fire and the danger of own annihilation and stopped any silly talks about sending HIMARS to 404 and it is all for the better. The US still wants to send some kind of MLRS (maybe even same HIMARS) but with much shorter range munitions. As Dmitry Medvedev noted today: 

«Разумно. Иначе при атаке на наши города Вооруженные силы России исполнили бы свою угрозу и нанесли удары по центрам принятия этих преступных решений. Часть из них находится совсем не в Киеве. Что дальше – объяснять не надо»

Translation: Makes sense. Otherwise, upon attacks on our cities, Russia's Armed Forces would have delivered on their threat to strike these criminal decision making centers. Part of those centers is located absolutely not in Kiev. What would follow--no explanation is needed. 

So, there you go. Meanwhile VSU continues to do what it was doing for the last 8 years--using civilians as human shield an shelling civilian areas of liberated cities and towns in Donbass. In other news, Denmark and Netherlands decided not to pay for Russian gas in Rubles. Sure, no problem.

The threat of cutting off gas supplies, if not being paid in Rubles, is taking another casualty. Russian gas giant Gazprom has announced that it will stop gas supplies to the Netherlands by Wednesday, in a reaction to the refusal by Dutch energy trader GasTerra to pay in rubles.

Evidently, the concept of money and paying for goods and services is still not developed in these two nations at this stage of their historic development, but, I think, in a few centuries they may figure this principle out and whatever will be left of them will join the family of civilized nations. Same goes for the present CIA big honcho William Burns (the US so called "diplomat"), who tries to wax Russia "insiderish" but fails miserably due to an extremely low professionalism of the current US "diplomacy" and "foreign service", so, he triers himself as Putinologist--a euphemism for ignorant US "diplomats" who, as it is normal now, know nothing about Russia. Even after being ambassador to Russia as Burns did.  So, he states:

Half of Washington, D.C., is in the business of analyzing Vladimir Putin’s every word and move these days. But when CIA Director William Burns speaks of the Russian leader, an autocrat waging a brutal war on Ukraine, his words carry unusual weight. Putin is the epitome of a “peculiarly Russian combination of qualities”: “cocky, cranky, aggrieved and insecure,” Burns has written. The Kremlin chief is “an apostle of payback,” Burns has declared.

But even this sophomoric "journalism" from Politico notes:

Burns may be a good Putinologist, but even he didn’t predict how much the Russian leader would scramble the Biden administration’s foreign policy agenda.

I have news for these US "diplomats" and "journos"--there are NO real "Putinologists", let alone good level specialists on Russia, anywhere in D.C. Because there is no US diplomacy as art and as noble profession in principle. Most what US foreign policy establishment, including its "elite" schools produces as its "diplomats" is a grey mass of under-educated ignoramuses who learn absolutely nothing about outside world and the same goes pretty much to any institution in D.C., including CIA. Burns is not an exception. 

It is the clock-work of the US "elite" education and selection mechanism which is completely broken and, as a result, produces people who are utterly unqualified to carry out any tasks related to any actual governance, be it in political, economic, diplomatic or military spheres. So, whenever the phrase such as "but even he" is used nowadays I always smile, "even they" in D.C. drove the United States to the precipice due to their corruption, careerism and lack of any professionalism. May be they should stop trying to be "Putinologists" and concentrate on their immediate professional responsibilities, instead of spewing PR BS through media which are as ignorant and amoral as they are. Nah, not gonna happen...

So, The Punishment Starts In Earnest.

You already read it, but let me reiterate: 

Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, has accused Russia of using natural gas supplies as an “instrument of blackmail” following Gazprom's decision to halt exports to Poland and Bulgaria on Wednesday. Warsaw and Sofia failed to pay for Russian gas deliveries in April in rubles, Russia's state-owned energy corporation explained. In a statement released on Wednesday, von der Leyen claimed that the "announcement by Gazprom that it is unilaterally stopping delivery of gas to customers in Europe is yet another attempt by Russia to use gas as an instrument of blackmail." The Commission president went on to describe the decision as “unjustified and unacceptable,” adding that it further highlighted the “unreliability of Russia as a gas supplier.”

Oh my, so sanctions and stealing financial reserves are not "unjustified and unacceptable",  and so is arming Nazi regime in Kiev, but getting slapped into face for doing so is now bad? We all know what could be said here, but as I stated before Poland and Bulgaria will be made an example to show others that Europe did it to herself and if need be, Russia may stop practically all economic activity with Europe. But not everybody in brainwashed Europe wants to commit a suicide. Here is one, out of many, such an example.

Italian energy giant Eni SpA is preparing to open ruble accounts at Gazprombank JSC, allowing it to potentially comply with Russian demands that gas must be paid for in local currency, according to people familiar with the matter.The move is precautionary as Eni seeks more guidance from the Italian government and European authorities on whether -- and under what conditions -- it may use the accounts to buy Russian gas, the people said. 

Many other European companies already opened Ruble accounts and the "plan" (developed in kindergarten) is simple and transparent here--to buy additional volumes of gas and oil through Ruble account holders and then distribute those volumes inside EU, including to all those "proud" nations as Poland, Bulgaria and it seems Finland too. Sure. As I "warned", Hungary may become a very rich country soon. Even Austria may get on that lucrative scheme (in Russian), which, in the end, raises the question why Austrian Chancellor went to Moscow recently at all? He tried to threaten Putin and was shown to the door immediately. Putin is on record: the refusal to pay in Rubles is a breach of contract, period. 

 

I know how difficult it is for combined West to accept this reality, but resources-based Ruble is here now and not just de facto but de jure and is becoming a very hot commodity. As this, today's, exchange rate testifies to:

that there is a lot of butt-hurt and sore losing is going on in Western capitals and Yahoo News doesn't even bother anymore and simply places this kind of BS on  its front page:

Following the example of Dunkirk: the fighters of Mariupol ask for a procedure that even Hitler agreed to in 1940. 

Per military news, which, as we all know Russia is losing badly, and as UK toy soldiers inform us:

Ukraine retains control over the majority of its airspace, Britain’s defence ministry said, adding that Russia has failed to effectively destroy Ukraine’s air force or suppress its air defences.

I think Sandhurst has to be simply rebranded into the Circus Academy (there is a good one in Tucson, as an example) and just be done with all this military mambo-jumbo because the graduates of the Circus Academy (acrobatics department) can do as swell of a job discussing modern warfare as Britain's Defense Ministry. But then again, Pink Floyd should review and rewrite their  line from The Dark Side of The Moon's immortal track Time: "Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English Way". English way is not quiet, it is bombastic, into your face, loud stream of utter hysterical bullshit which comes as a surprise for fans (like me) of the old English culture of the stiff upper lip, delightful humor, acute sense of self-deprecating and great intellect all of which long ago left the shores of the Foggy Albion and gave us this:

Boy, how far has Great Britain fallen. But then again, this is the choice British people made and that's the way the cookie crumbles. But if I would have been David Gilmour and Roger Waters I would have rewritten this line from Time. But that is just me, little insignificant me. Indeed, what do I know.  

Some Points.

Larry Johnson pointed me to a good solid professional, former US Army, Jacob Dreizin, who surely understands the issue. I give you some taste of Jacob's sitreps here: 

It will be difficult for the Ukraine to use regular motorized forces on the offense in this area, as they would be traversing flat, open country, and would be hugely susceptible to air and rocket strikes, especially as Russia has largely finished off the Ukraine’s high-altitude air defenses east of the Dniepr in the last week.  However, in place, they could conceivably blunt a Russian effort to deepen the Donbass blockade substantially westwards in line with the Little Saturn (1942-1943) playbook. 

I like, in fact--love, references to Little Saturn, and if we begin to draw parallels to WW II (some of them are correct), and you know how squeamish I am drawing those parallels, recall what Zhukov did in Winter of 1945 in Pomerania and WHY he did it, instead of going for the jugular of Berlin. That explains a lot in terms of Russian view of this operation and blocking and liberating Mariupol the way it was done. 

Right now Kadyrov guys started storming of the Azov Steel plant and US media go bananas making all kinds of shit up with new BS of the week that Putin suffers from cancer. As I say all the time--they are single cell creatures in US media. And now another living fraud, Nikita Khrushchev's seed, Nina, spews her ignorance around (she has degree in Russian language and comparative literature, face-palm) and now predicts Russia's "dark fate":

Whatever happens in Ukraine and in the rest of the world, Russia’s fate is sealed: A future as dark as its darkest past

Generally speaking, this woman just confirmed what I state all the time: US loves all kinds of ignoramuses and people with agenda to "consult".  I am sure Khrushchev's granddaughter knows it all(/s). 

In related news, it is down right stupefying to observe the whole industrial-economic drama unfolding in Germany. Holy smokes. As Bernhard points out:

Europe Must Learn To Cheat On Its Sanctions (Just Like The U.S. Is Doing It)

Russia, of course, gave EU a face saving (cosmetic really) "exit" of sorts when stated, OK, you may open Ruble accounts in Gazprom Bank. You transfer Euros there for gas, but until euros are converted to Rubles, you don't have the gas. Simple as that. EU is hysterical, because they know what is coming. And now Germany begins to remove metals from Russia from sanctions, LOL. It is a complete mad-house in the combined West. So, here is your primer for weekend. In conclusion:

Here is Konashenkov's briefing and Iskandering of the staff of VSU near Kharkov, many foreign nationals there among reported 100 KIAs.  

Can We Finally Admit...

 ... that Western "economists" do not know what economy is, the only thing they know is speculation with currencies, period. Russia introduces de facto resources-based currency.  

Reuters) -The Russian rouble briefly leapt to a three-week high past 95 against the dollar on Wednesday in Moscow, before settling close to 100, after President Vladimir Putin said Russia would start selling its gas to "unfriendly countries" in roubles. The potential ramifications of that move, which Putin ordered his government to sort out in one week, could boost the Russian currency, with a host of European countries still dependent on Moscow for much of their energy supplies.

What a bunch of cretins. Wake the fvck up, imbeciles--it is not just about Ruble, it is about those proverbial counter-sanction from Russia everybody were so longing for. It is a death blow to US Dollar and EU. Here it is in Russian from Ria. In related news, Brent crude hit today $120.99, and rising. Well, no comments are needed, really...

As Was Anticipated...

Russia is ready to increase energy supply to Europe:

President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday that Russia was ready to boost natural gas supplies abroad, after Europe accused Moscow of curbing flows and pushing prices to new records. Speaking at an energy forum in Moscow, Putin said Russia was ready to meet new orders from buyers for higher volumes. "If they ask us to increase more, we are ready to do so," Putin said, adding that Russia is increasing supplies "as much as our partners are asking us." Europe is facing a gas crisis leading up to the coldest season of the year, with a surge in prices and depleting reserves caused by a cold end to last winter.

But, of course, even in this bit of news, the last phrase is, as is traditional, a lie. The Agence France Presse (which reports it) merely adds:

But Putin on Wednesday blamed "systemic flaws" in the European energy market and brushed off criticism, saying that "some try to pass their errors onto others".

And why don't journos and staff BSer, ah, pardon my French, writers expand on what Putin said and what REAL energy professionals warned for years--"green energy" is a utopia turned totalitarian religion in perverted (literally and figuratively) minds of West's humanities dumbed down "elites", who have zero background in engineering and natural sciences, and it was inability of "green" sources to supply modern civilization with steady energy this civilization needs to survive, forget about living decently. Here is Putin verbatim:

Повторю:рост цен на газ в Европе стал следствием дефицита электроэнергии,а не наоборот. И не нужно, что называется, перекладыватьс больной головы на здоровую, как у нас говорят, как пытаютсяделать некоторые наши партнёры. Иногда слушаешь, что на этот счёт говорится, –удивляешься, просто удивительно, как будто не видят цифр – я ещёоб этом скажу, – не видят реалий, просто прикрывают своисобственные ошибки. Всё последнее десятилетие шаг за шагомв европейскую энергетику закладывались системные изъяны. Именно онии привели к масштабному кризису рынка в Европе.  Напомню,что, пока на ведущих позициях была атомная и газовая генерация,подобных кризисов не было, неоткуда было им взяться. Добавлю,что в России такие проблемы сегодня, слава богу, невозможно представить.Долгосрочный подход к развитию ТЭКа позволяет нам обеспечивать ценына электроэнергию для населения и предприятий на самом низкомуровне в Европе. Для сравнения: средняя цена электроэнергии в Россиив пересчёте на евро составляет около 20 евро за мегаватт-час,В Литве – 256, в Германии и Франции – 300,в Великобритании – 320.

Translation: I repeat: the rise in gas prices in Europe was the result of a shortage of electricity, and not vice versa. And there is no need, as they say, to shift from a sore head to a healthy one, as we say, as some of our partners try to do. Sometimes you listen to what is being said about this, and you are surprised, it’s just amazing, as if they don’t see the numbers - I’ll say more about this - they don’t see the reality, they just cover up their own mistakes. Over the past decade, step by step, systemic flaws have been laid in European energy. It was they who led to a large-scale market crisis in Europe. Let me remind you that as long as the leading positions were atomic and gas generation, there were no such crises, there was nowhere for them to come from. I will add that today, thank God, such problems in Russia are unimaginable. A long-term approach to the development of the fuel and energy complex allows us to provide electricity prices for the population and enterprises at the lowest level in Europe. For comparison: the average price of electricity in Russia in terms of euros is about 20 euros per megawatt-hour, in Lithuania - 256, in Germany and France - 300, in the UK - 320.

 

Never mind, of course, that Russia will be hated (traditionally) for exposing, yet again, incompetence of West's elites, because these people are incapable of critical thinking and are butt-hurt, severely.  But then again, this is one of those "we told you so" moments. Read my lips: Western elites are IN-COM-PE-TENT. I am not alone, I will remind you about this: 

Our Elites Couldn’t ‘Reset’ a Wall Outlet, Let Alone the Global Economy.

Let's face the facts--reading, by even moderately educated and cultured human, mental excrement by Fukuyama, Schwab, sophomoric sloganeering by Bill Gates, or generalizations by Mearsheimer, or pseudo-economic "strategy" demagoguery by Luttwak, among many others, can only inspire laughter, the kind one has when seeing a kindergarten child pontificating on the matters of quantum mechanics. It is risible, that these people pretend to be running what amounts to the ship of fools. Enter Vicki Nuland--another fine product, together with her hubby Robert Kagan, pretending to know the world outside. 

 

Nuland is in Moscow currently, after the whole ordeal of getting permission to enter Russia--as a private person she is listed as "undesirable" for Russia--and to allow its "diplomat" to get the permission from Russia, Washington was forced to remove some Russians from its own "black list". So, she was allowed, met with Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov who openly stated that at this stage positions of the sides to negotiations do not fit well (in Russian).  No surprise, they do not. They WILL NOT for a long time. But Nuland, who passes in D.C. for "expert in former USSR" is in Moscow trying to squeeze from Russians whatever the US can in terms of Ukraine, which increasingly becomes a burden for the US, and discuss issues of mutual relations which de facto have been almost finished off during Trump Administration. Usually Russians are permissive to US envoys and allow them to meet "above" their pay grade. This time, however, Nuland has been denied meeting with Lavrov. Putin expressed a conviction that eventually Russian-American relations will stabilize, and one can only hope so. We'll see. Hopefully they will in the long run. But then again, looking at D.C. cadres, including US Congress which is hell bent on wrecking the relations with Russia completely, this may take a very-very long time. 

But geopolitical and economic events run their course. Yesterday some flake from California lamented Russia's position by writing this shit: 

Increasing reliance on Moscow is not only a geopolitical danger -- the increase of demand for fossil fuels also poses a serious threat to climate goals. Europe hasn’t just turned to Moscow for natural gas, it has also looked into stockpiling coal for the winter. China and India, too, are facing their own energy crunches. China has even experienced rolling blackouts in recent weeks as Beijing struggles to keep up with demand. This has led to skyrocketing coal demand in a time that the world needs to stop burning coal altogether. Ultimately, these energy crunches around the world showcase just how much we are still reliant on fossil fuels to shore up our energy security, and the outsized power that this gives to major energy players such as Russia, creating a dangerous and delicate geopolitical (im)balance. 

Here is her: Haley Zaremba is a writer and journalist based in Mexico City. She has extensive experience writing and editing environmental features, travel pieces, local news in the Bay Area, and music/culture reviews.

 

You see, she has zero experience in anything except writing on something she has no experience in. Indeed, it is well known fact that energy is so simple, almost like writing about environment and travel. Anyone can become energy "analyst", without attending Masters Degree program in engineering with the focus on power-generation, or Geology faculties with specialization in surveying and resources development. Just like that, I wonder if tomorrow I can start writing about... about...ah, yes, quantum mechanics or cosmology. And why not? Here is another mentally inadequate cretin, who gets excited about Estonia buying some subsonic anti-shipping missiles which will, in his fantasy:

Cutting off sea trade to Kaliningrad slowly could starve the 400,000-person exclave and mitigate the threat it poses to NATO’s eastern flank. NATO as a whole—and non-aligned Finland, as well—certainly possesses the striking power to threaten supply convoys sailing from St. Petersburg to Kaliningrad.

Lavrov, help!

These people ARE NOT exceptions, in their delusions, incompetence, down right cretinism they are representative of the West's "elites" thinking and that is why we observe today a geopolitical FUBAR on unimaginable scale. All of it is systemic and comprehensive. In related news, check out a wide-spread incest and pedophilia of French elites. The latest one (in Russian) and before (also in Russian). The West is sick and the sickness is untreatable, it metastasized into everything from economy, to culture, to morality to even science. Europe is certainly done. The United States? Will the silent majority raise its voice? There are still several seconds to midnight. 

A Rather Gassy Business.

I am no fan of Boston Globe, the rag which gives a tribune to such shitheads as Scott Gilmore, certainly, can not even pretend to be any reputable publication. Here they come again, spewing a lot of hot gas on the issue of Russian gas, which America bought and is going to eventually resell as its own gas, to Europe which is in dire need for gas, and is ready to accept Russian gas, through gas-pipes of both Turkish Stream and Nord Stream, but enough about gas. 

  

Arrival of Russian gas stirs Ukrainian community

After that a lot of smug self-righteous Bullshit is written in this editorial piece, which is expected from most American so called "journalists", but here is an interesting phrase:

Policy makers have imposed a double standard, rejecting domestic gas over solvable concerns while accepting, with apparently no questions asked, the need for foreign LNG shipments with troubling environmental and human rights implications.

If one discounts a traditional fake concern for "human rights", what is highlighted in yellow is actually a very correct statement. Here we have to abandon loony ignoramuses at Boston Globe and concentrate on the opinions of professionals in the field of hydrocarbons. I am no professional in that but I know a thing or two about SLOCs and its reliability and, what RIA (in Russian) Dmitri Lekukh calls a "transport shoulder". It is a very good piece which, unlike Boston Globe's sappy sentimental crap, should be attentively read and taken into account. The piece has a symptomatic headline: To Rob Europe: Why Second Tanker With Russian LNG Is Allowed Into the USA. Indeed, why? Here is a spread, which is even more interesting against the background of my two-weeks old piece on Russo-Chinese Alliance and Northern Sea Route (NSR), and, of course, China issuing, a week later, her White Book precisely on a huge significance of NSR for China.  

1. As Russia's Energy Minister Alexander Novak (BTW, the guy who actually worked a lot in real industries, such as metallurgy) points out: he is absolutely not "euphoric" about Russian gas arriving to the US. Since Novatek really doesn't care where  the gas goes as long as Novatek is paid. As he astutely noted: once the gas is sold and resold, the gas molecules remain "Russian" but gas does not. 

2. The issue, however, is in the fact of Russia's brand new immense LNG facility in Yamal changes the picture completely and, no matter how emotional some people in the US become about this fact--Russian LNG is competitive with the US domestically produced gas inside the US. Now we are going to Sabetta and this "transport shoulder". See the maps:

#1. European "shoulder" (for some reason "above" Novaya Zemlya).

#2 Asian "shoulder".

Is it getting "warmer"? Here Lekukh makes a very interesting conclusion: If Russian LNG is competitive inside US on a huge, trans-Atlantic, transport shoulder, what is it going to do to European LNG port facilities which are literally, in a global sense, positioned next to Sabetta. Remember American plans to sell American LNG to Europe? Well, good luck competing with Novatek.  Lekukh, however, goes further and states, and I think he is right, that Americans are no dummies--they know all that. The trick is in globalization of the LNG trade which will make price for American LNG competitive, but also will make already very high energy cost component in European goods, extremely high thus giving US goods an advantage over European ones. 

Here, the factor of Russian gas pipe-lines begins to weight heavily and Europeans know it damn well. It is not enough that French Total SA holds 16% of Novatek shares but even SovComFlot's first ice-class LNG supertanker bears the name of late Total's CEO, tragically killed in the air crash, Christophe de Margerie.  She even carries de Margerie's mustache on her bow. 

In fact, they know it so well, that Germany already issued permissions for Nord Stream-2 pipeline to be laid in her territorial waters. And then we have to take a look at those "European" LNG ports in.... sure--in Eastern Europe, that is in Poland, Lithuania and other US lap dogs of no economic weight or significance but who completely bought into this "diversification" scheme without doing even simplest arithmetic. One has to imagine the faces of their leaders when hearing and seeing the news of Russian LNG being shipped to the United States? Hey, Russian LNG is so competitive that who knows (and somebody knows, I am sure, wink-wink) that Poland and Baltic States eventually will have to buy Russian gas molecules as... an American LNG. Twice the price, of course. As they say "freedom is not free". The smell of failure is really in the air.

The situation is utterly comical and two main geopolitical questions today, especially after massive Russian intelligence delegation meeting with their counterparts in D.C., are this: 

1. Will Russia "play" with the US to allow US enter global LNG Trade and thus giving at least partial competitive edge which may help US to partially re-industrialize her economy. 

2. Will Russia, in the same time, back Europe to a degree needed to not let it lose to the US (and China), which, granted pathetic intellectual level and cowardice of European "elites" is entirely possible. 

These are no bad problems to be faced with. I wrote two weeks ago about Russia's strategic fork. This is one of them. Now imagine this factoring into the larger game with China which has her own 9% stake in Novatek and wants NSR really-really bad. Once these factors are considered one can totally understand why Massachusetts Ukrainian community is so worried and is full of... gas, as they should. In 2019 Ukraine becomes irrelevant in the larger scheme of things and if Trump releases... I am running ahead of myself here, let's just wait and see.    

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