Western 404 ...

... begins to feel the pain. That's just the start. This is Lvov today--the hotbed of 404 Nazis. 

It is not just power generation which is being wiped out, including 750 kV substations whose destruction forced nuclear power plants of 404 to reduce power output. Moreover, 404 is now being cut off EU grid. But even MORE over--every industrial plant is being destroyed.  

Meanwhile the "Russian" city of Kharkov. 

The only question I have to our German friends here is that it seems these morons are doing their Nazi salutes under the ... GDR's Army march. I could be wrong, of course. If you can, please confirm or otherwise. But in the end, it doesn't matter--even if they have been doing this to the Swan Lake music it wouldn't make any difference. Nazis are Nazis. 

It Is Really Very Simple.

 And it is a well-known fact. 

A number of countries that Russia considers “unfriendly” have privately pitched proposals on improving economic cooperation during the G20 Summit, the head of the Russian delegation, Kremlin aide Maksim Oreshkin, told reporters on Sunday. The summit brought together leaders representing the world’s 20 largest economies in Johannesburg, South Africa, this weekend. “A number of countries we consider unfriendly have approached us with specific proposals for cooperation – on how to improve economic relations with Russia and implement joint projects,” Oreshkin said at a press conference. He added that he would not elaborate on which countries made the offers “lest their colleagues be offended later.”

This is the reality of Kardashev Scale which correctly puts energy, its extraction and use, as the main criterion for the type of civilization. Obviously, we, Earthlings, are still way-way out of even Type-I level, we are somewhere near 0.6-0.7 at best, BUT ... If to use Russia as a reference point as Type=1.0 within Earth's present energy paradigm, then countries like Germany, Italy or even France will be, ahem--somewhere between 0.4-0.5 at best. And they DO NOT have any prospects for getting higher without ... right--you get my drift. Their march to backwardness accelerates and they did it to themselves. 

This also explains Trump's desperate desire to get his hands on Venezuela's oil, but while understandable for purely vulture reasons, risks attached to it are huge for the United States, and even under the most favorable conditions that will not solve US economic problems. They are systemic and cannot be resolved by mere imperial acquisitions, especially with dramatic breakthroughs in energy generation happening this very moment as I type this. But, of course, Venezuela may become, as Larry notes. 

As the US continues to build up its military forces off the coast of Venezuela, it is worth asking about the risks associated with an actual US invasion with ground forces. I think that US military planners, regardless of what Donald Trump is saying, have cautioned their bosses about the extreme risks that such an operation would entail. During my appearance today with Judge Napolitano, I suggested we compare what a possible military operation inside Venezuela would entail compared to our 2003 attack on Iraq… Venezuela is a much tougher nut to crack than was Iraq. 

Moreover, Iraq can hardly serve as a yardstick and as Lieutenant-General Klokotov stated in 1992, and I remind you:

And that was in 1992, when the US Armed Forces have been in a much better shape than they are today. So, make your own conclusions. 

Most Likely It Is ...

 ... in final stages of completion, if not already and it was easy to predict. 

Russia and China are working to set up a securities depository to rival Belgium-based Euroclear and Clearstream, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has said. In an interview with Izvestia published on Thursday, Siluanov said it is important to build “an independent payment infrastructure” in response to Western sanctions. Russian investors previously held funds at European clearing houses through Russia’s National Settlement Depository (NSD). Euroclear and Clearstream stopped transactions with NSD and froze its accounts after sanctions were imposed against it in mid-2022, preventing investors from accessing their assets. The Bank of Russia has estimated that around 5.7 trillion rubles ($66.8 billion) remains blocked. Siluanov said the role of a new depository would be assumed by a planned Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Development Bank, which would enable Russians to invest in foreign assets and foreign investors to finance projects in Russia.

Schizophrenic behavior of Trump's economic team could be explained, at least partially, by the recognition of the impact of this bank and clearing system, especially against the background of kindergarten child's sanctions tantrum by Trump against Russia's energy sector. India is under this constant pressure and we will see where it is all going soon enough, but if this bullying (and BS) by the US energy sector, which is behind this sanctions diarrhea, continues, the US will not be able to settle in any kind productive cooperative energy relations with Russia and will be limited only to LNG exports. It can forget about North Slope of Alaska because there is nothing on the horizon currently in the US which even remotely approaches Russia's (constantly growing) Arctic capabilities, which would allow developing that enormous field, and the nuclear ice-breaker fleet is just one out of many factors underpinning the US' (and EU) Arctic impotency. Any talk about Scandinavians having any real capability in Arctic--is for amateurs. 

Meanwhile, Bill Gates finally apologizes.

So, you know))

Poor, Poor Dears.

They still didn't learn a thing. 

The White House is planning to “kill” Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 energy project, according to US assistant secretary of state for energy resources, Geoffrey Pyatt. The project in the northern Gydan Peninsula is operated by independent Russian LNG producer Novatek. It will feature three LNG trains, with a total annual production capacity of 19.8 million tons. The first train was launched in July, while the remaining two are scheduled for 2024 and 2025. Speaking on Wednesday at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on US national security interests in Ukraine, Pyatt stated: “Last week, for instance, we levelled new sanctions against the Arctic LNG 2, which is Novatek’s flagship project” “Our objective is to kill that project,” he stressed, claiming that the project had been set up with the aim of turning Russia into the world’s largest LNG exporter. According to Pyatt, Russia’s plans are being stifled by sanctions imposed through cooperation between the US and its allies in the G7 and beyond.

In related news, the US also wants to beat Russia on battlefield, crush Russia's economy and, in general, get 404 into NATO. Wonderful! In related news, Biden wants to write Ph.D thesis on Operations' Research and all members of the US Congress are currently applying in Israel's Embassy for enlisting with IDF to fight HAMAS.  

The most fascinating thing here, however, is how the guy with this CV, considering the fact of the third world US "education" of its diplomatic corps, can have an idea about energy and Russia's economy. Get a load of this:

Pyatt was born in La Jolla, a suburb of San Diego, California, the son of Kedar “Bud” Pyatt, and Mary Mackenzie. He received a bachelor's degree in political studies in 1985 at the University of California, Irvine, and a master's degree in international relations at Yale University in 1987.

As you can see yourself--zero background in anything which involves understanding of larger framework of energy and its impact as a main driver of human civilization. Plus, Pyatt's tenure as an ambassador in 404 can get him being featured in proceedings of the War Crimes Tribunal in Moscow and Donetsk.  You can compare Pyatt's C.V. with that of Alexander Novak (with Novak's industrial and industrial economics degrees), not to mention the background of present Russia's Minister of Energy Nikolai Shulginov and it will provide you with a good insight into why the US is imploding. The answer is very simple--the guy with "degree" in political "studies" or "international relations" even from Ivy League (especially from Ivy League) is on average an ignorant and badly educated hack. That is why, for example, American Diplomacy is an oxymoron, it is also a butt of jokes among serious diplomats around the world. 

So, now the idea that some dude who wouldn't know the difference between Billy Joel and Joule can run anything energy-related, especially on a global level, is preposterous. Even for "killing" something one has to have a professional knowledge of "killing" as a craft and Harvard or Yale "educated" economists and accountants wouldn't do, because they are not taught practical geopolitics, global power balance and real economy. This is precisely how the United States miscalculated with Russia on a level beginning to approach that of Hitler's planners, but at least Wehrmacht knew how to fight. So, good luck, trying to butt heads with Novatek and Russian real economy which grows like crazy. As British Lloyd's learned the hard way, Russia doesn't need Western financial institutions--the fact the wet dreamers in Washington still cannot reconcile themselves to. 

Does Pyatt want to challenge Russia's Northern Fleet? Poor, poor dear.

Why, Oh Why;))

Politico, through the writing of its amateur shysters "educated" in US degree mills in "international studies" or other "communications" type skills and some of who actually finally got their pubes growing (read their C.V.s--it is LOL) wonders: 

The Biden administration has yet to use its Lend-Lease authorities to send weapons to Ukraine, senior administration officials and lawmakers told NatSec Daily. The U.S. under President JOE BIDEN has committed nearly $35 billion in security assistance for Kyiv since Russia’s invasion, all of it coming from drawdowns of U.S. military stocks or future weapons production. But Congress also gave Biden Lend-Lease authority last year, allowing the U.S. to cut through bureaucratic red tape and gift weapons to Ukraine with the expectation of reimbursement down the line. To date, the administration has chosen not to use that option, mainly because the congressionally approved pot of money that hasn’t been zeroed out yet. “We are prioritizing security assistance that they would not have to pay us back for,” a senior administration official said on the condition of anonymity to detail sensitive internal discussions. However, the official added that the administration is “certainly open to using it in the future.” The focus right now is on “other existing authorities that Congress has authorized.” Another reason for keeping Lend-Lease in the back pocket could be because there’s currently bipartisan support for sending weapons to Ukraine. Should Republican resistance grow, or popular sentiment turn against the war, then it’d make sense to use Lend-Lease to work around legislative efforts to block future weapons deliveries, said a Democratic congressional aide who was granted anonymity to speak freely about the party’s thinking.

OK, let me translate it into normal human language: no matter what  the congressional hustle, a euphemism for pretending to "legislate", is, the United States of 2023 and the United States of 1941 are two different countries and the United States of 2023, allowed for adjustments, is an economic dwarf compared to its own self circa 1942-43. But that fact, meaning inability to fight REAL large scale combined arms war, aside the whole idea seeing American weapons, around which the mythology of American military was built in the last 30 years, is a terrifying idea for many in Washington. And those weapons will burn in industrial quantities because they are simply not designed for real large war. 

I repeat ad nauseam for many years, that American politics, built primarily around PR and show off for the consumption of increasingly docile "electorate", cannot permit PR disasters of a scale which will completely and finally disclose America's military-economic impotence. The question here is NOT just about US' inability to produce or ramp up production of the key war materiel. No, the issue is scarier--it is operational-strategic and the whole boondoggle with 404 suicide "planning" in NATO exposed utter military military incompetence across the board. As I spoke yesterday in my video--most US fighting "doctrines" such as SEAD, combined arms, a proverbial Airland Battle, which "transitioned" into Multi-Domain Operations are nothing more than white-board theories based on beating Iraq or appropriating the "experience" of Israeli Army--hardly a good yardstick for real war. Yet, here it is. 

In the end, apart from incompatibility of the US arsenal for the needs of such operations as SMO, one can now openly and confidently state that the U.S. Army wouldn't fare much better than VSU and even with the best it has got for the battlefield a wholesale annihilation of high-value assets such as shooting down AWACS and combat planes, destroying battalion worth of personnel and its hardware daily, not to speak of the suppression of ISR, one can only speculate on the way the US Army would react to such realities. And, of course, the stream of KIAs and wounded back to the US would have a dramatic effect politically. It is one thing to lose 56,000 KIAs in Vietnam over 10 years, totally another is losing 150,000-170,000 KIAs in 12 months. When all those facts are considered, the answer to the title of the Politico BS Why Biden hasn’t loaned weapons to Ukraine is easily found. But Politico as well as most US establishment media wouldn't even dare to go there. Plus, most of people who work there as "contributors" are ignorant morons anyway and do as told by their party or intel services curators. 

I am not being too harsh, in the exhibit A of how to commit suicide on the national level, Spiegel reports:

Atomausstieg ist laut Habeck unumkehrbar. Am Samstag ist Schluss: Die drei letzten deutschen Atomkraftwerke werden abgeschaltet. Und zwar endgültig, sagt der Wirtschaftsminister. In der Ampel – und in der Bevölkerung – sehen das nicht alle so. 

Translation: According to Habeck, the nuclear phase-out is irreversible It's over on Saturday: the last three German nuclear power plants will be shut down. And finally, says the Economics Minister. Not everyone sees it that way in the traffic light – and in the population.

I will repeat again, as I did for many years now, the nation which consistently makes "green" party and its affiliates a serious political force has some severe psychological, if not psychiatric, issues. The economic demolition of the Western Civilization continues. In related news, however:

Hungary has reached an agreement with Russian energy company Gazprom on possible gas supplies in excess of what is provided for in long-term contracts, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said during a visit to Moscow on Tuesday. The announcement followed talks with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak and the CEO of Russian nuclear energy major Rosatom, Aleksey Likhachev. “We managed to agree with Gazprom the possibility of buying supply volumes in excess of the amount indicated in the long-term contracts, if a need arises in the course of preparation for winter ...mainly through the Turkish Stream [pipeline],” Szijjarto stated. “Today we extended the agreements regarding this possibility,” he added. The sides also discussed a possible acceleration of the ongoing expansion of Hungary’s Paks nuclear power plant by Rosatom. The two countries’ nuclear cooperation has sparked a backlash from some EU member states.

You see, culturally Western Civilization increasingly shifts to the East of the Continent. "Western" (old) Europe is gone.

As Was Expected...

 ... once real information, not from telegram channels' ignoramuses and defeatists, not to mention IPSO trolls,  started to trickle down from Kharkov a much different picture began to emerge. For starters, the main "fix" of Kiev regime's propagandists--Balakleya (which is operationally not that important to start with)--is still not taken by VSU completely and, as was stated yesterday, Russian reserves are pouring in. Most importantly, VSU is now in the open and this may come as a surprise to Pentagon planners and commanders in charge of this "cascade" of the "offensives" which are blocked as I type it. The new "direction" could be Liman, but it seems that Pentagon will have to deal with the numbers of KIAs of VSU, which already yesterday were reported in excess of 5,000 KIAs and many more thousands of wounded, which any NATO army, including the US Army simply cannot sustain. In general, NATO's "planning" is unprofessional and is having huge issues with understanding of the "echeloning" offensive operations and the use of reserves.   

So, let's leave it at that and continue to observe the whole thing as it unfolds, I am sure we will have second and third waves of IPSO and Western media campaign in promoting "successes" of VSU. I will only reiterate my point--those who really want to follow events, forget about all those "reporters" and telegram channels', 99% of them are utter unprofessional BSers. In fact, many allegedly "pro-Russian" or "patriotic" channels play INTO the hands of Western and Ukie propaganda without even understanding it. I personally view Yuri Podolyaka as an IPSO asset and increasingly open enemy of SMO. 

Meanwhile, EU continues to parade itself as a freak-show. 

The European Central Bank will not give short-term financing to European energy firms struggling through the energy crisis, sky-high prices, and margin calls on the derivatives markets, ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Friday. “As far as the ECB is concerned, and the national central banks of the Eurosystem, of course we stand ready to provide liquidity to banks, not to energy utility firms,” Lagarde said at a news conference in Prague today, as carried by Bloomberg. “In this current, very volatile environment, it’s important that fiscal measures be put in place to provide liquidity to solvent energy-market participants, in particular utility firms,” the ECB chief added. Europe’s energy firms, for their part, are estimated to be facing margin calls of a total of $1.5 trillion in the derivatives market. Many of these firms will need policy support to cover those calls amid wild swings and skyrocketing gas and power prices. The $1.5-trillion estimate is even “conservative”, Helge Haugane, Equinor’s senior vice president for gas and power, told Bloomberg earlier this week. 

All this merely confirms my long-standing assertion that Western "elites" wouldn't be able to run a public restroom without bankrupting it and drowning it in shit. Will Russia kill European metal industry? Possible, after all it translates into arms industry, whatever is left of it in EU. So, enjoy the weekend;)) 

Operation "Thermostat".

As Tucker says (love it, LOL). So, is Russia "losing" the war in 404? Tucker knows the real story.   

Enjoy.
 

Pepe's Excellent Piece.

The Saker posted Pepe Escobar's excellent piece with a symptomatic title: All the Way to Odessa. In it, Pepe notes:

In parallel, The Lords of (Proxy) War will continue with their own strategy, which is to pillage an enfeebled, fearful, Europe, then dressing it up as a perfumed colony to be ruthlessly exploited ad nauseam by the imperial oligarchy. Europe is now a runaway TGV – minus the requisite Hollywood production values. Assuming it does not veer off track – a dicey proposition – it may eventually arrive at a railway station called Agenda 2030, The Great Narrative, or some other NATO/Davos denomination du jour. As it stands, what’s remarkable is how the “marginal” Russian economy hardly broke a sweat to “end the abundance” of the wealthiest region on the planet. Moscow does not even entertain the notion of negotiating with Brussels because there’s nothing to negotiate – considering puny Eurocrats will only be hurled away from their zombified state when the dire socio-economic consequences of “the end of abundance” will finally translate into peasants with pitchforks roaming the continent.

Pepe was a herald of this unfolding European reality for a very long time, and here it is--being built in front of our own eyes. Read the whole thing at Saker's blog, it is excellent. In related news of Europe becoming poor (just a warmup):

German benchmark power prices for next year soared above €800 per megawatt hour on Friday, nearly 10 times higher than the same period last year, Bloomberg reports. Prices gained as much as 7.6% on Friday to reach €805.15 per megawatt hour on the European Energy Exchange, up 39% this week. Costs have been smashing records on an almost daily basis as the winter heating period approaches. The rally is being driven by growing concerns over Russian natural gas supplies via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Berlin previously required gas operators to fill underground storage facilities while adhering to a strict schedule, to ensure the country has enough fuel to last the winter. The plan states that storage must be 85% full by October 1, and 95% full by November 1. Experts doubt the goal is achievable.

In Germany they begin to stop escalators in some department stores to "save energy". Right.

A Friend Of Mine...

... sent me Daniel Larison's piece at his blog Eunomia where he contemplates economic sanctions. He refers to The Economist piece titled: Are sanctions on Russia working? My friend correctly states and I quote him:"Sanctions are another example of the intellectual bankruptcy of the Western ruling elite. Like a child with a hammer in a room full of glasses and dishware. As you never cease to point out, almost no one in Western top circles has a well-trained mind. Way too many law and business degrees (or worse, in political voodoo science!), with very poor background in math, physics, chemistry and such. They do not understand the energy-material world -- thermodynamics and the importance of those 92 elements." And Larison's piece, while concluding correctly that:

The flaws of broad sanctions have been well-known for a long time, so it wasn’t as if it took imposing them on Russia to recognize their limitations and ineffectiveness. It was entirely foreseeable (and foreseen) that waging economic war on a country as large and powerful as Russia would have adverse consequences for the senders of the sanctions and for the entire world. We know from experience that targets of the harshest sanctions regimes also tend to be the most intransigent, and broad sanctions often backfire and produce more of what they are supposed to discourage. We also know that sanctions usually do not really “work” at all in the sense of changing the target’s behavior in the way that the senders want it to change. Given all that, it should not come as news that the “sanctions weapons has flaws.” The question should be why we continue to use a weapon as blunt and crude as sanctions at all.

Is misplaced and, in fact, is somewhat misleading, because Larison's statement 'It was entirely foreseeable (and foreseen) that waging economic war on a country as large and powerful as Russia would have adverse consequences for the senders of the sanctions and for the entire world', is utterly false. Foreseen by who? If Larison has a short memory, for all my respect for his generally humanist aspirations, facts testify to exactly opposite. The whole Ukrainian "strategy" of the United States and EU since 2013 was and is based on a complete miscalculation and inability to recognize either the scale or power of Russia be that in economic or military terms. The Economist, as well as most of Western publications related to "economic" affairs (Forbes, WSJ et all) have been consistently wrong on "foreseeing" anything and, in fact, played a crucial role in creating an alternative universe narrative on economy of Russia and impact of sanctions. 

As Russians say today, when responding to the question of if economic sanctions work, 'yes, they do--as a boomerang'. But the best example of a systemic failure of Western economic, military, intel or media institutions to "foresee" anything is his very own (I guess he is employed there) Quincy Institute for (allegedly) Responsible Statecraft. Materials published in it re: SMO are the Exhibit A of a complete detachment from the military and economic realities of Russia. If a complete sophomoric delirium about SMO provided there by such "scholars" as Anatol Lieven is understandable, the position of a former cadre officer of the US Army Colonel Andrew Bacevich hardly differs from propaganda being spewed by other US military "experts" such as generals Petraeus or Keane. And that brings us to my position of the last decade at least--the West has a systemic cognitive problem, which, in the end, is a problem of competencies and professionalism. In foreign policy the United States is utterly incompetent because, and I quote Larison himself:

Unfortunately, the U.S. is remarkably bad at understanding these things accurately. This is not just a Trump administration failing. Most American politicians and policymakers routinely misjudge the intentions and goals of our adversaries, and they often invent a fantasy version of the regime in question that leads them astray again and again. One reason for this is that it is simply easier to project our assumptions about what a regime must want than it is to make the effort to see things as they do. Another reason is that many of our politicians and policymakers mistakenly think that if they try to understand an adversary’s views that must somehow mean that they sympathize with the adversary or condone its behavior. Instead of trying to know their enemy, our leaders would prefer not to for fear of being “tainted” by the experience. This lack of knowledge is compounded in some cases by the absence of normal diplomatic relations with the adversary. Our leaders are encouraged to take this self-defeating approach to international problems by a political culture that rewards the people that strike tough-sounding-but-ignorant poses about a problem and marginalizes those that seek to understand it as fully as possible.

And as Larison's "own" Responsible Statecraft outlet exhibits consistently, not only the US is "remarkably bad" in understanding its "adversaries", but truth is--often doesn't know basic facts of real economy, modern warfare, history and diplomacy, but most remarkably, fails to understand its own status, scale and position vis-a-vis the world outside. This huge issue cannot be rectified by mere "rethinking", US machine in producing real statesmen is broken completely and requires a complete removal. It failed miserably to react and adapt to tectonic shifts of modern world and exceptions in "foreseeing" things merely confirm the rule of modern American "elites" being a failure across the board. But then again, what did one expect with "scholars" like Lieven. 

In related sanctions matters, however, this is funny: 

Russia is flaring natural gas at the Portovaya plant near the Finnish border while drastically cutting gas flows via the Nord Stream pipeline to Germany, a Rystad Energy analysis shared with BBC News showed on Friday.  The plant northwest of St. Petersburg is flaring an estimated around $10 million worth of natural gas per day—gas that would have gone to Germany otherwise. 

Aw, poor-poor dears, they cannot sleep knowing that Russia can afford to do so, because Russia is not going to supply her enemies who conduct proxy war against her, and the window is closing fast. This, not to mention the fact that Europe has been written off by Russia, is what really matters. The US is next, but only after some necessary arrangements. 

UPDATE: Michael Hudson, after reading this piece sent to me (initially through Andrei Raevsky) this addendum: 

I have a comment ....about ... column today saying that sanctions don’t work. I think that’s not the point when it comes to U.S. sanctions. Suppose a bully is seen beating up people. Someone tells him, “This won’t change that guy’s behavior.” The bully will reply: “I don’t care. I like to hit people. That’s my philosophy.” I think this is the spirit behind US sanctions.

I agree, it is a philosophy. Especially, as Hudson adds these comments sent to me:

After I wrote it, I thought of some more examples. Take torture. Every country (and religion) has its own signature mode of torture). It’s pretty much known that torture gets false confessions. But nations still do this. Iran under the Shah has a “hot plate,” tying victims to what was a big frying pan and turning on the heat. The US has water boarding. It was pointed out to me that one country was exceptional. Russia simply used sleep deprivation to break down resistance to giving information. Apparently the Americans found that this was simply no fun. It’s like air force generals who like to bomb, and find opportunities everywhere. I’ve known plenty of these guys – and when it comes to Russia, it’s really part of a psychodrama of anger and revenge.

Pay attention to the highlighted conclusion by one of the best economic minds of our generation. He gets it 100%. Remember this? 

Never underestimate the drive to be "the best", when you know you cannot be. The psychodrama unfolds...

Excellent Discussion.

By guys at Duran on fates of Europe. 

Europe voted for that, let it enjoy.
 

Note To Myself...

Don't plan any trips to Spain. Not that I wanted to. 

But, yes, EU is steadily going bananas and I think they should double down on support for Ukraine by limiting "dependence" on Russia's energy. This is just a "warm up" for the main event, if you know what I mean.

Germany’s year-ahead electricity prices hit a record high on Friday after several utilities across Europe warned of lower power supply due to hot and dry weather that affects nuclear and coal power generation. The price of electricity in the biggest market in Europe, Germany, rose by 2% early on Friday to a record $419 (410 euro) a megawatt hour (MWh), per Bloomberg estimates. More and more utilities in Europe are looking to switch to fuels other than natural gas because of sky-high prices and uncertainty in Russian supply as the continent scrambles to fill gas storage sites ahead of the winter.But coal supply is constrained due to low water levels on the Rhine River, a major coal and fuel transportation corridor in Europe.

Mind you, Europe did it to herself, so I have to stop using this caveat that I sympathize with Europeans. You made your own bed, now sleep in it.

You Gotta Love This.

Obviously West's "hands are tied". This is not about some BS hedge fund or Wall Street virtual economy. This is as real as it gets.

In the meantime, many energy industry executives have lost faith in the Biden Administration’s energy agenda. At a recent industry conference, the CEO of one large upstream company referred to the Biden administration as being “energy ignorant.” Another CEO admitted that their company has “no relationship at all” with anyone in the administration. Another told me during a recent interview that they found it “impossible” to even get a meeting with relevant officials at the Department of Interior or DOE. How can any government official really understand an industry they refuse to have a conversation with? The decision by Russian President Vladimir Putin Thursday to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine complicates matters even further. Markets panicked at the news, causing crude prices to jump 8% over night, with the international Brent price topping $105 per barrel and the U.S. domestic West Texas Intermediate index hitting the $100 mark. 

This is just the warm up. Biden's Admin is not just "energy ignorant". US "elites" as a whole are ignorant pretty much of any matter which defines appropriate governance, from foreign policy, to military and war, to economy, to education--you name it. When uneducated ideologues get to power this is what you get. But then again, I am on the issue of Western "elites" for so long that I even wrote three books on that. One needs competent people with integrity in political class to offset corruption and ignorance. For now this is not the case, most people with competence, integrity and vision have been purged. The results are obvious and easy to see.

A Bit Of Economic News.

When speaking about basic facts I made one mistake, Russia's manufacturing grew in 2021 (relative to successful 2019) not 6.9 but 5.9% which is still very impressive.  But the news from the processing industries--that is where the value added is highest--is even more impressive: the growth is 9.2% (in Russian from Rosstat). 

Remarkably, the US and Qatar are redirecting LNG tankers from Asia to Europe because European natural gas prices are, well, insane. So a lot of money to be made there while the going is good even despite the demand shrinking somewhat, which is only natural because many simply cannot afford to exist in such economic conditions. I don't know how Poland will be able to escape inevitable blame for insisting on the market-determined gas prices, but then again--it is purely EU and European Commission matter, let them start throwing turds at each-other. Hungary and Serbia were the smartest ones, they simply signed long terms contracts with Gazprom and are sitting pretty (probably with pop-corn) observing this whole clusterfuck in EU. 

Per Russia's ultimatum. There were some objections to calling it that, but my response is simple: if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck and looks like a duck, then there is a good chance that it is a duck. Same here:

Judge for yourself. But in general, many people missed one very serious moment in all of this back and forth between Russia and NATO. Russia threw the US off balance. This is simply by implying an escalation dominance in the areas which Russia historically deems crucial for her security. Ukraine is one of them. Is there a degree of ambivalence in Putin, Lavrov, Shoigu's and other statements? No doubt about it, there is a certain small degree of it which makes the other side guess WHAT will be the response if the red line is crossed. The military part of this response is somewhat predictable when it comes to Ukraine, but what else, what else--Russia is ready to discuss it and she is in the open with her concerns, let's call it like that for now, concerns. Aegis Ashore is one of that--both in Poland and Romania. Plus, Vladimir Putin was not this time generous towards Western "partners" and speaking at the Board of Ministry of Defense couple of days ago admitted that even written obligations from the West are pretty much worthless. But still, better than verbal promises alone. 

And while Russia's economy is still recovering from the ruins of 1990s and early 2000s, it is clear that it is large and self-sustainable enough to issue ultimatums not fearing any economic consequences. I would even propose that shopping in Moscow, St. Petersburg or Kazan is in no way inferior to visiting Paris or Milan boutiques which sell brand crap for ridiculous prices designed for the type of public which in Russia is known as нищеброды (difficult to even translate properly--uncultured lacking taste pauper-beggars maybe) who hunt only for status brands and things as to be a part of a conspicuous consumption class. Yes, there are many of those among moneyed strata both in Russia and in the West. The result, very often, looks like this:

But then again, I am old fashioned, but, yes, I still love good shoes and good watches (emphasis on good, meaning beautiful and reliable). I buy my Wranglers at Walmart (and Lee's at COSTCO) and some things in Eddie Bauer. I would say that is more than enough for man's happiness. But that's just me, what do I know.