"We Bear Heat And Light"(c)

No, it is not Gazprom or Rosatom's motto in the headline. The motto in the headline, although a joke and a meme, is the motto of RVSN, aka Russian Strategic Missile Forces. Hey, it is a proper one, indeed a variety of missiles and MIRVs RVSN operates do, indeed, provide a lot of heat and light upon delivery. Behind the stream of news from 404 we all, understandably, forgot that life in Russia didn't stop. RVSN today launched, successfully, new ICBM RS-28 Sarmat, which is about to enter IOC. 

That thing can carry pretty much any munitions, including hyper-sonic Avangards, which brings us to other related news which may slip unnoticed in the informational bacchanalia in Western media. 

As TASS reports, Amur Shipyard already laid down first sections of the third serial production corvette of the Pr. 20385 (in Russian). Four of those 3M22 Zircon carriers are planned for the Pacific Fleet and are surely to change the whole concept of naval warfare in the Western Pacific. 

They are nice looking ships and now that we know the actual range of Zircons (1,500 kilometers), together with Gorshkov-class frigates (also Zircon carriers) it may explain why Borisov was stand-offish on carriers in his interview a couple of days ago.

As for aircraft carriers, such questions are often discussed at defense meetings in Sochi. In general, the development of high-precision and hypersonic weapons sometimes renders aircraft carrier groups useless, overshadowing their potential. And besides, the US may need a powerful aircraft carrier group, since they are far away and need to cross the ocean before they reach any theater of operation on this continent. Russia, on the contrary, has always pursued a defense strategy, so the need for these types of vessels is debatable. But I think that you can’t just stop using this type of naval equipment altogether, you must think about it all the time. But this costs a lot of money.

Now that Shoigu confirmed yesterday a radical increase in the speed of targeting information exchange between ISR and high-precision weapons carriers, which include Zircon carriers (in Russian), the carriers issue for Russia really becomes a moot point, albeit it is clear that with the commissioning of large amphibious assault ships such as project 23900 Russia may (don't quote me on that) bring to the sea some version of STOVL aviation. In all, Russian Navy does not completely abandon carrier aviation plans but in real war the utility of modern CVNs is really questionable, especially for the astronomical expenditure and high psychological significance attached to these beautiful and mighty looking, but fast becoming obsolete, ships. 

So, Russia continues to build her weapons and, while Mikhail Mishustin admitted that Russian economy "sagged somewhat", that sagging was expected under well-known circumstances and the growth will return starting this year. But here is my beaten to death point: combined West grossly miscalculated in terms of the size of Russian economy. No, it is not just the matter of crucial Russian exports ranging from energy, to metals, to food, it is about the actual size of Russian economy. And by size I mean, of course, real, physical economy which produces real products. Just one look at Russia's aerospace industry, both commercial and military, should have given a hint to Western "economists" but they failed, naturally. 

Netflix shares plummeted to their lowest point since January 2018 as investors reacted to the streamer’s first subscriber loss in more than a decade — bringing years of booming growth to a screeching halt. The stock was around $222 per share in midmorning trading Wednesday, down 36% from the previous closing price and sinking to a more than four-year low (its lowest since shares ended at $220.46 on Jan. 19, 2018). The latest tumble came after Netflix posted a Q1 loss of 200,000 subscribers and projected that it will lose another 2 million subs in Q2, prompting a wave of analyst downgrades. Netflix shares have shed more than 60% of their value over the last six months.

In related news: Netflix is "valued" more than Gazprom. I mean "shares". That explains why Russia doesn't care anymore about all those BS "rating agencies" and IMF and World Bank "projections"--the idiots live in a virtual world of virtual money. The new Russia's strategy for participation in WTO in metallurgical sphere  should be ready by June 1st, and Vladimir Putin was very clear today that behavior of the West towards Russia will not change (in Russian). It will be very interesting to see this strategy and how defense of the domestic producers will be reflected in it. Expect new developments in the extraction sphere because Russia has ALL critical resources ranging from Uranium to Titanium to what have you in industrial volumes and the only reason that Russia was not developing those deposits was because it was somewhat cheaper to buy them from other countries.  Circumstances changed dramatically, and Russia has enough cash to do it all. 

In SMO news, Patrick Lancaster is finally getting the recognition he deserves, with  more than 400,000 subscribers. I believe it is two days old report.

The dude has the balls of steel and is a real war reporter, old-fashion, down and dirty but that what real war is. Patrick has to stay safe, together with his gutsy cameraman. There are some reports of VSU simply abandoning villages and towns and the stream of POWs continues. Many of them do not even look like military men anymore: completely warn down and broken down, many say that the stream of surrendering VSU would have been even larger if not for many trying to surrender being shot in the back by Nazis. Well, we knew that from the get go, didn't we? 

Larry Johnson On Intel Matters In War. Plus Some Other Quick Observations.

Excellent historic introspective from Larry about deception operations in real wars and some historic lessons as applied to SMO today. 

Unless you are a student of the history of World War II, you probably do not appreciate the role that DECEPTION operations played in pinning down German forces and the relevance of such operations to what is going on in Ukraine.

Read the whole thing. Larry arrives to the conclusion which is very solid:

Well, looks like Russia was feeding the western allies a big load of bullshit.

And you already learned by now, I guess, that "intel" US and other media were spewing about Shoigu having "artificial heart attack" or some 20-odd Russian generals "arrested" turned out to be..of course, a complete BS. Obviously, Shoigu just yesterday held a Ministry of Defense Council (Kollegia) being in perfect health and a good mood and spoke about both State Defense Order (GOZ) and about dramatic (orders of magnitude) increase of the speed of targeting exchange for Russia's stand off high precision weapons such as Kailbrs and Kinzhals (in Russian). 

Meanwhile, the great German strategist, reincarnation of Erich Von Manstein and Schlieffen in one body, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz delivered his military wisdom:

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Tuesday said the Russian armed forces shouldn’t be allowed to win in Ukraine, APA reports citing TASS. He made the statement at a news conference following talks that Western leaders held by video link. The leaders included presidents Joe Biden of the US, Emmanuel Macron of France, Andrzej Duda of Poland, Klaus Iohannis of Romania, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, European Council President Charles Michel, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

As you can see, this statement was made in the company of people (Western leadership, really) who never served a day in any armed forces and wouldn't know shit from shinola, or LGBT from BTG of BCT. Scholz dealt Russians a severe damage because of the deadly bouts of the hysterical laughter they had upon hearing about intentions of Germany not to allow such a victory. Right. In related news, Germany and EU should reject all Russian hydrocarbon contracts and concentrate completely on powering their industries by electricity from the wall sockets, because this is where real electricity (which is clean energy) resides--it is so easy, just plug in and voila'. Just ask Greta Thunberg or any Hollywood celebrity, they nailed this plan to the minute details. 

In other related news, a technical and military genius, first Vice-Premier Yuri Borisov explains why Russia is not running out of high precision weapons. English WiKi gives totally abrogated bio on him, but Borisov graduated both military academy with focus on Radio-electronics of Air Defense Systems and then graduated Moscow State University, the department of Applied Mathematics and Cybernetics (in Russian). What a loser, he should have gone to study marketing or journalism, or become a lawyer as the last resort, but no-o-o, those stubborn Russians prefer this type of people running their crucial industries. How they can run anything when they don't even have a Tik-Tok accounts and don't follow Sean Penn, what a bunch of losers. 

Anyway, here is Borisov verbatim on why Russia will not run out of high precision stand-off weapons. 

From as early as 2011, all our defense procurement programs have focused on the production and deployment of high-precision weapons. All this time, we have also been building up our manufacturing capacities. As a result, today, we can fully meet the demand of Russia’s armed forces for precision weapons.

Recall Bismarck: "A Russian makes a plan when even going to a toilet." So, there you are--you plan (of course based on this proverbial OODA, which the West cannot and doesn't use for a number of reasons), based on situational awareness, execute, check the process of the execution, make adjustments if needed, correct the mistakes, get the desired result. Obviously, for carrying out such plans one needs very many good professionals on all levels, but especially at the top, decision-making, circuit. EU government in general, and Germany's in particular are opposite of that, and that is why they still believe in Ukraine's "victory".   

As they say, hope dies last. Somebody show those leaders these well-known facts:

Europe is desperate to replace Russian gas, which has driven the U.S. to export as much LNG as it possibly can.

12 new LNG projects in the U.S. have already been approved, but they are unlikely to all be completed due to long-term uncertainty.

While Europe is currently desperate for natural gas, its long-term goal is to move away from fossil fuels, which means some of these projects aren’t economically viable.

Pitch-forks times in the combined West, especially Europe, are coming--I omit here issues of food altogether--but the process of economic and cultural suicide at this stage is very robust and probably is not reversible in Europe by merely peaceful means. But that is the separate topic in and of itself.

Evidently It Struck The Nerve...

 ... with RT and they did the write-up on Douglas Macgregor's opinion in his yesterday's interview: 

Russia has largely achieved its objective of neutralizing the Ukrainian military, but Western governments mistakenly believe the deliberate progress designed to avoid civilian casualties reflects weakness and are funneling weapons to prolong the fighting, a former top Pentagon adviser has said. Russian President Vladimir Putin has given strict orders from the outset to avoid civilian casualties and extensive property damage, retired US Army Colonel Douglas Macgregor told the Grayzone in an extensive interview on Tuesday. This has slowed the Russians’ advance “to the point where it has given false hope both to the Ukrainians … but seized on by people in the West, to try and convince the world that a defeat is in progress, when in fact the opposite is the case,” Macgregor said. “The war, for all intents and purposes, has been decided,” the retired colonel said. “The entire operation from day one was focused on the destruction of Ukrainian forces. That’s largely complete.”

As anyone knows who reads this blog and my books--victory is defined by achieving political objectives of the war. Political objectives of the war in Ukraine are removal of criminal regime in Kiev and establishing Ukraine as fully neutral nation. This main political objective is subdivided into two major military-political objectives which are:

1. Demilitarization of Ukraine, meaning destruction of Ukraine's Armed Forces and her military-industrial complex;

2. Denazification.  

The first objective is largely met and transitioning of the combined arms operation into the counter-insurgency and police operation is in progress. The second one is only partially met by means of physical annihilation of military arm of the Ukrainian Neo-Nazism, the police and state security work on that is largely ahead and it is a combination of operative, paramilitary, detective, media and social measures which are being implemented. But in the midst of this constant tactical "analysis" masturbation in the Western media based solely on Ukie propaganda and fakes, with BBC finally being thrown out of Russia today (long overdue), real huge developments in the larger world outside should not be forgotten. In fact, they are even more important than what is happening now in 404.  

The US, after being told to go and pound the sand by Chinese, is now applying its pressure on India. Well...get a load of this. As Times of India reports: 

India is preparing to buy heavily discounted crude oil from its long-time ally Russia. The idea is to minimise domestic macroeconomic risks arising out of the Ukraine-Russia war. The country meets 85% of its crude oil requirements through imports. However, only 1% (nearly 45,000 barrels a day in 2021) of its total crude oil imports come from Russia. While this may not be much, a discount on Russian crude will surely lower India’s import bill, The Times of India reported today (March 16).

While initial amount of crude is not large, one should not forget that Russia is called ally of India by India and the original article in the Times of India is very specific in terms of ongoing consultations between Russia and India on setting up a Rupee--Ruble payments mechanism and results will be announced soon (several days). The United States if not understands, at least senses, a grave danger for the US status, grossly exaggerated from the inception, of a global power but promises to accelerate, already in progress, of process of cutting the US economy to size. Its REAL size. 

Evidently Pakistan also is in a full blown mode of "give it to me, baby" in terms of Russia-Pakistan gas pipe-line:

ISLAMABAD: Federal Minister for Finance and Revenues Shaukat Tarin on Wednesday said that Pakistan and Russia have broadly agreed to establish the North-South Gas Pipeline Project with an estimated cost of approximately $3 billion. ...“Yes, we have broadly agreed for establishing this multi-billion gas pipeline project with Russia and now future virtual talks were expected to finalise the shareholders agreement and execution of this project,” Federal Minister for Finance Shaukat Tarin said when The News inquired from him about the finalization of North-South Gas Pipeline Project here on Wednesday. He said that the cost of this project was estimated at around $3 billion but it would be firmed up after the conclusion of upcoming virtual parleys between the two sides.

So, as you can see, huge physical economy and military superpowerdom of Russia buy her a lot of goodies and ensure that those goodies will not be snatched by the declining West headed by the US. For Western "experts", such as Germany's Economic Minister Robert Habeck, who holds Doctorate IN philosophy (with zero engineering background) and is a fanatical Grune, or Lindsey Graham with Ted Cruz (both attorneys)--Russia does have all necessary competencies, technological expertise and industry to completely on her own to build just about anything. Here is one of those plants.  But then again, in the world where Russia loses war in Ukraine, by means of annihilating VSU and surrounding key cities, anything is possible in regards to Russia. That is why even those people who try to stay objective and mean no ill to Russia, even those people sometimes fail to grasp what modern Russia is economically, technologically and scientifically. 

Make no mistake, Russia has her own problems, no doubt about it, but those are the problems of the superpower--the fact that US so called "elites" try to avoid admitting because it will discount immediately the actual weight of the United States and, most importantly, will illuminate utter corruption of the America's political, military and economic institutions. I know this pain, and I know how cognitive dissonance between perceived "greatness" and rather unimpressive realty can exacerbate mental problems, especially among very provincial in their outlook US "elitists". This is what US "elites" are going through right now. Some, like fanatical neocons, are ready to unleash WW III, others try to convince themselves that the United States is the "greatest nation in history" still, or that Russian military technology is still not as good as American, or this or that, but one cannot escape the reckoning. It is not coming--it is IN progress as I type this. Reality is a bitch, and it inevitably bites and it hurts like hell, believe me, I know.     

A Bit Of Economic News.

When speaking about basic facts I made one mistake, Russia's manufacturing grew in 2021 (relative to successful 2019) not 6.9 but 5.9% which is still very impressive.  But the news from the processing industries--that is where the value added is highest--is even more impressive: the growth is 9.2% (in Russian from Rosstat). 

Remarkably, the US and Qatar are redirecting LNG tankers from Asia to Europe because European natural gas prices are, well, insane. So a lot of money to be made there while the going is good even despite the demand shrinking somewhat, which is only natural because many simply cannot afford to exist in such economic conditions. I don't know how Poland will be able to escape inevitable blame for insisting on the market-determined gas prices, but then again--it is purely EU and European Commission matter, let them start throwing turds at each-other. Hungary and Serbia were the smartest ones, they simply signed long terms contracts with Gazprom and are sitting pretty (probably with pop-corn) observing this whole clusterfuck in EU. 

Per Russia's ultimatum. There were some objections to calling it that, but my response is simple: if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck and looks like a duck, then there is a good chance that it is a duck. Same here:

Judge for yourself. But in general, many people missed one very serious moment in all of this back and forth between Russia and NATO. Russia threw the US off balance. This is simply by implying an escalation dominance in the areas which Russia historically deems crucial for her security. Ukraine is one of them. Is there a degree of ambivalence in Putin, Lavrov, Shoigu's and other statements? No doubt about it, there is a certain small degree of it which makes the other side guess WHAT will be the response if the red line is crossed. The military part of this response is somewhat predictable when it comes to Ukraine, but what else, what else--Russia is ready to discuss it and she is in the open with her concerns, let's call it like that for now, concerns. Aegis Ashore is one of that--both in Poland and Romania. Plus, Vladimir Putin was not this time generous towards Western "partners" and speaking at the Board of Ministry of Defense couple of days ago admitted that even written obligations from the West are pretty much worthless. But still, better than verbal promises alone. 

And while Russia's economy is still recovering from the ruins of 1990s and early 2000s, it is clear that it is large and self-sustainable enough to issue ultimatums not fearing any economic consequences. I would even propose that shopping in Moscow, St. Petersburg or Kazan is in no way inferior to visiting Paris or Milan boutiques which sell brand crap for ridiculous prices designed for the type of public which in Russia is known as нищеброды (difficult to even translate properly--uncultured lacking taste pauper-beggars maybe) who hunt only for status brands and things as to be a part of a conspicuous consumption class. Yes, there are many of those among moneyed strata both in Russia and in the West. The result, very often, looks like this:

But then again, I am old fashioned, but, yes, I still love good shoes and good watches (emphasis on good, meaning beautiful and reliable). I buy my Wranglers at Walmart (and Lee's at COSTCO) and some things in Eddie Bauer. I would say that is more than enough for man's happiness. But that's just me, what do I know. 

Really Fast Glance.

It seems that the issue with understanding the economy persists. So, what I did, I fast compiled available data, with the exception of agriculture, on crucial sectors among countries which rank high in the world to give some impression on the actual sizes of economies. 

I will never stop reiterating--economy IS energy. No energy--bid your dreams of becoming a global power goodbye, unless you secure energy supply, such as China is doing this very moment. So, highlighted in red are countries with a severe deficit of energy as represented in MTOE (Million Tons Oil Equivalent). Then I give some (only some) data on industrial sectors which matter in CINC (Composite Index of National Capability) and Barnett's famous 14 points.  Obviously, today CINC absolutely doesn't do the trick but it could be grasped even by a child that production of metals matters strategically, because without steel, aluminum or pig iron the civilization will simply grind to a halt. 

I didn't put in commercial aviation because we all know main players and there is no necessity to go over it. But especially in terms of Airbus which is a multi-nation conglomerate and in this case one needs to credit several countries, including Germany, where, as an example the integration facilities are located. But that doesn't mean that Germany out of own resources can produce serious commercial aircraft. She can't in a foreseeable future. In terms of consumer goods--those numbers are estimates of countries covering their needs out of own resources. And that's the issue here--look at EU members? Taken separately they are dwarfed by such countries as the US, Russia, not to speak of China, who dwarfs everybody else. That is why when I hear or read all those IMF or World Bank GDP ratings I smile. E.g. in fundamentals of economy Russia dwarfs Germany, not to speak of France or UK.  Moreover, Russian economy is grossly (and not without intention) undervalued, while Western economies are inflated to a grotesque degree by means of assets' value inflation and counting FIRE as part of GDP. Even good ol' PPP--Purchasing Power Parity adjuster doesn't work. That is why Military-Industrial Complex is included and there are ONLY two countries in the world capable out of own resources to produce all nomenclature of the advanced military hardware: US and Russia, with China following. France still tries to maintain her position within this exclusive club and we are yet to see where will it get her. 

I mean it when I say that using Western "economic statistics", especially in monetary form is as useless as treating cancer with aspirin. Remarkably, even aging Patrick Buchanan notes two days ago:

The Eclipse of Europe. Not only is the center of political gravity shifting from Europe to Asia, European unity seems a thing of the past.

For anyone who didn't drink the Kool-Aid of Western economism and strategic (pseudo)thought it was clear for a long time that Europe was on her downward spiral and as latest events with energy deficit have shown one cannot live on shares, abstract economic indices and outright delusional statistics. To live--one must produce. To live well--one has to have a good grasp of what good life is, a problem Western political "scientists" wrestle with without any success for a long time. One can live without latest Mercedes model, one cannot live without heat in winter and air-conditioning in summer. In the end, less expensive and no less practical Skodas or Ladas are available. In the end, there is always Toyota, or Hyundai. We live inside the ongoing collapse of the old world and evaporation of the old myths and chimeras. That is why Erdogan goes to Sochi and calls Putin his "dear friend". That is why, looking at European economies anyone with IQ higher than the room temperature wonders how do they even survive. Well, I will continue to try to elaborate on these issues to the best of my mental and physical abilities, but just take a brief look at those numbers--they tell the story. 

UPDATE: forgot to mention. The US is making a killing in Asia selling American LNG. Naturally. Now is the question: what about Europe--you know Atlantic solidarity, NATO and all that. Well, nothing personal, just business. In related news, BASF closed 40% of its operation, while UK's fertilizers industry is completely paralyzed, like completely stopped. It is all down right surreal. France now wants to government-control consumer prices...but...but what about "free market" and invisible hand?