Showing posts with label ignorance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ignorance. Show all posts

Friday, August 26, 2022

A Friend Of Mine...

... sent me Daniel Larison's piece at his blog Eunomia where he contemplates economic sanctions. He refers to The Economist piece titled: Are sanctions on Russia working? My friend correctly states and I quote him:"Sanctions are another example of the intellectual bankruptcy of the Western ruling elite. Like a child with a hammer in a room full of glasses and dishware. As you never cease to point out, almost no one in Western top circles has a well-trained mind. Way too many law and business degrees (or worse, in political voodoo science!), with very poor background in math, physics, chemistry and such. They do not understand the energy-material world -- thermodynamics and the importance of those 92 elements." And Larison's piece, while concluding correctly that:

The flaws of broad sanctions have been well-known for a long time, so it wasn’t as if it took imposing them on Russia to recognize their limitations and ineffectiveness. It was entirely foreseeable (and foreseen) that waging economic war on a country as large and powerful as Russia would have adverse consequences for the senders of the sanctions and for the entire world. We know from experience that targets of the harshest sanctions regimes also tend to be the most intransigent, and broad sanctions often backfire and produce more of what they are supposed to discourage. We also know that sanctions usually do not really “work” at all in the sense of changing the target’s behavior in the way that the senders want it to change. Given all that, it should not come as news that the “sanctions weapons has flaws.” The question should be why we continue to use a weapon as blunt and crude as sanctions at all.

Is misplaced and, in fact, is somewhat misleading, because Larison's statement 'It was entirely foreseeable (and foreseen) that waging economic war on a country as large and powerful as Russia would have adverse consequences for the senders of the sanctions and for the entire world', is utterly false. Foreseen by who? If Larison has a short memory, for all my respect for his generally humanist aspirations, facts testify to exactly opposite. The whole Ukrainian "strategy" of the United States and EU since 2013 was and is based on a complete miscalculation and inability to recognize either the scale or power of Russia be that in economic or military terms. The Economist, as well as most of Western publications related to "economic" affairs (Forbes, WSJ et all) have been consistently wrong on "foreseeing" anything and, in fact, played a crucial role in creating an alternative universe narrative on economy of Russia and impact of sanctions. 

As Russians say today, when responding to the question of if economic sanctions work, 'yes, they do--as a boomerang'. But the best example of a systemic failure of Western economic, military, intel or media institutions to "foresee" anything is his very own (I guess he is employed there) Quincy Institute for (allegedly) Responsible Statecraft. Materials published in it re: SMO are the Exhibit A of a complete detachment from the military and economic realities of Russia. If a complete sophomoric delirium about SMO provided there by such "scholars" as Anatol Lieven is understandable, the position of a former cadre officer of the US Army Colonel Andrew Bacevich hardly differs from propaganda being spewed by other US military "experts" such as generals Petraeus or Keane. And that brings us to my position of the last decade at least--the West has a systemic cognitive problem, which, in the end, is a problem of competencies and professionalism. In foreign policy the United States is utterly incompetent because, and I quote Larison himself:

Unfortunately, the U.S. is remarkably bad at understanding these things accurately. This is not just a Trump administration failing. Most American politicians and policymakers routinely misjudge the intentions and goals of our adversaries, and they often invent a fantasy version of the regime in question that leads them astray again and again. One reason for this is that it is simply easier to project our assumptions about what a regime must want than it is to make the effort to see things as they do. Another reason is that many of our politicians and policymakers mistakenly think that if they try to understand an adversary’s views that must somehow mean that they sympathize with the adversary or condone its behavior. Instead of trying to know their enemy, our leaders would prefer not to for fear of being “tainted” by the experience. This lack of knowledge is compounded in some cases by the absence of normal diplomatic relations with the adversary. Our leaders are encouraged to take this self-defeating approach to international problems by a political culture that rewards the people that strike tough-sounding-but-ignorant poses about a problem and marginalizes those that seek to understand it as fully as possible.

And as Larison's "own" Responsible Statecraft outlet exhibits consistently, not only the US is "remarkably bad" in understanding its "adversaries", but truth is--often doesn't know basic facts of real economy, modern warfare, history and diplomacy, but most remarkably, fails to understand its own status, scale and position vis-a-vis the world outside. This huge issue cannot be rectified by mere "rethinking", US machine in producing real statesmen is broken completely and requires a complete removal. It failed miserably to react and adapt to tectonic shifts of modern world and exceptions in "foreseeing" things merely confirm the rule of modern American "elites" being a failure across the board. But then again, what did one expect with "scholars" like Lieven. 

In related sanctions matters, however, this is funny: 

Aw, poor-poor dears, they cannot sleep knowing that Russia can afford to do so, because Russia is not going to supply her enemies who conduct proxy war against her, and the window is closing fast. This, not to mention the fact that Europe has been written off by Russia, is what really matters. The US is next, but only after some necessary arrangements. 

UPDATE: Michael Hudson, after reading this piece sent to me (initially through Andrei Raevsky) this addendum: 

I have a comment ....about ... column today saying that sanctions don’t work. I think that’s not the point when it comes to U.S. sanctions. Suppose a bully is seen beating up people. Someone tells him, “This won’t change that guy’s behavior.” The bully will reply: “I don’t care. I like to hit people. That’s my philosophy.” I think this is the spirit behind US sanctions.

I agree, it is a philosophy. Especially, as Hudson adds these comments sent to me:

After I wrote it, I thought of some more examples. Take torture. Every country (and religion) has its own signature mode of torture). It’s pretty much known that torture gets false confessions. But nations still do this. Iran under the Shah has a “hot plate,” tying victims to what was a big frying pan and turning on the heat. The US has water boarding. It was pointed out to me that one country was exceptional. Russia simply used sleep deprivation to break down resistance to giving information. Apparently the Americans found that this was simply no fun. It’s like air force generals who like to bomb, and find opportunities everywhere. I’ve known plenty of these guys – and when it comes to Russia, it’s really part of a psychodrama of anger and revenge.

Pay attention to the highlighted conclusion by one of the best economic minds of our generation. He gets it 100%. Remember this? 

Never underestimate the drive to be "the best", when you know you cannot be. The psychodrama unfolds...

Saturday, July 9, 2022

Introspective on Clausewitz by Bernhard and Other Business.

Bernhard of MoA did a good write-up on Clausewitz and Kool Aid where he absolutely justifiably points out... well, the Kool Aid many of those military "experts" in the West are drinking. 

Read the whole thing, and keep in mind that from the get go numbers and ratios US and UK military "experts" from establishment media to all kinds of fraudulent neocon think-tanks such as ISW "used" (meaning, made up) have been a complete BS. Made up numbers of force correlations and losses which created a completely false narrative and picture of SMO. Now the time of reckoning has come and I will lie if I say that I don't enjoy this massive egg on faces of Petraeus, Keane and others, who are going now through a profoundly painful phase of a butt-hurt when facing reality, especially from the fact of parading themselves as not military professionals but media buffoons. Speaking of which. 

Another "product" of America's "military thought" is having an excruciating date with reality and unable to contain himself begins to fantasize about real war. I get it, he was the USAF big honcho and even SACUER, but something tells me that in Philip Breedlove we have not just acute case of Russophobia but a serious lack of grasp of how modern wars are conducted. 

Somebody, please, give Mr. Breedlove a hint, politely, not in a forceful manner, to take a look at the map and at the capabilities of Harpoon anti-shipping missiles. Being a former pilot himself, it is only natural for him to think about combat aviation to face such enemy as... Taliban or other weddings and civilian gatherings which USAF was bombing to smithereens for the last 20 years not facing any air defense systems, let alone serious enemy air forces. So, when he suggests to "attack" Crimean Bridge by Harpoons, he has to ask himself a question on HOW such an operation would look like. Will the attack be carried out by Ukie Air Force, or, rather, what's left of it? Will they want to meet Mr. Su-35 or Mr. MiG-31BM (in Russian) or such gentlemen as S-400, S-300V4 and S1 Pantsir which are present in industrial quantities inside Crimea and around Crimean Bridge? Evidently this idea never visited Breedlove. Including this teeny-weeny detail, the problem really, on how to integrate AGM-84 Harpoon with old Soviet Su-27s and MiG-29s

Or, maybe, Breedlove thinks about somehow sticking those Harpoons on some Ukie fishing boat and secretly moving it into the launch position in the middle of the Black Sea and hope and pray that the targeting provided by S-3 Sentry from international airspace will succeed in guiding those few (what 2-3?) Harpoons towards Crimean Bridge? Good luck fooling Russia's Black Sea Fleet and, again, Air Defense. But maybe, one tries to conclude, Mr. Breedlove thinks about launching Harpoons from some truck from Ukie controlled territory? Possible? Sure. There is one teeny-weeny issue here, though. The maximum range of Harpoon is around 220 kilometers--so good luck finding the territory from which such a salvo can reach Crimean Bridge. FYI--the distance between Ukie-controlled Nikolaev (for how long?) and the bridge is 390 kilometers--good luck reaching it. And I don't even start here any discussion on the issue of what "linear targets" are and what it will take, what salvo--remember, наряд сил, the number of Harpoons--of 200 kilogram warheads, to even take the section of the bridge out for a short period of time? 

Mr. Breedlove, certainly, graduated Air Command and Staff College, I am 100% positive that they taught there such issues as probabilities, "leakers", required force and operational planning, based on good grasp of own and enemy's capabilities, especially in terms of opposing air force and air defense. I am sure they teach that there. But somehow, as many other US top brass, Philip Breedlove decided to drink (or maybe excrete?) a Kool Aid and continue to embarrass not only himself but the whole America's top brass which has an astounding record of military failure, incompetence and BSing in the last 20 years, which is beginning to culminate in a much worse outcome than Afghanistan 1.0.   

As some sources (German Welt) report, the US and Europe are in secret negotiations trying to find a diplomatic resolution and to stop SMO (in Russian). Good luck with that--too little, too late. As in that famous Russian anecdote about two bear hunters. One of them finds the bear and shouts to his buddy:"Hey, I caught the bear!" His buddy responds:"Then, bring him here." The response is:"I can't, he doesn't let me." In related news:

WASHINGTON – A retired three-star general has been suspended from a $92-an-hour contract consulting the Army and is under investigation after posting a tweet that appeared to mock first lady Jill Biden on a hot-button social issue, according to the Army. Retired Lt. Gen. Gary Volesky, the Army's former top spokesman and recipient of the Silver Star for gallantry in Iraq, had been a "senior mentor," advising senior military officers, staff and students participating in war games and other military activities. Lt. Gen. Theodore Martin, commander of the Combined Arms Center, suspended Volesky pending the outcome of the inquiry, Cynthia Smith, an Army spokeswoman, told USA TODAY. On June 24, the first lady posted a tweet condemning the Supreme Court's decision overturning the constitutional right to abortion, which read in part: "For nearly 50 years, women have had the right to make our own decisions about our bodies. Today, that right was stolen." Volesky replied with his own tweet: "Glad to see you finally know what a woman is". His response represents a breach of decorum for a retired military officer and a foray into partisan politics by an official on the payroll of the Pentagon, which is supposed to steer clear of such matters, experts say. His tweet has been deleted.

Really? Breach of decorum? His comment was spot on and funny, because it was true. But what about Philip Breedlove, who suggests to bomb the object of civilian infrastructure (not to mention his ignorance of alternative through Kherson) and parades himself as a buffoon? I though that qualifies. But then again, we live in a strange world in which the combined West is run by petulant teenagers, who long ago lost any connection to strategic, operational and tactical reality and there is no way they can restore this contact.

Friday, June 17, 2022

RT Staff Is Ignorant...

Mr. Lukyanov is not an "expert" in anything as is not Simonyan--the big honcho of RT-- or most people "populating" the so called Russia's "expert community" (most of them humanities dumbed-down Ph.Ds) in "foreign relations". His only claim to anything is his navigation of the Moscow's political Beau Monde. 

The Russian military offensive in Ukraine is likely to last for a long time and will bring about the “decoupling” of the Russian and Western economies, Fyodor Lukyanov, a prominent expert on international relations and editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs said on Thursday. Speaking to RT, Lukyanov spoke about short-term prospects for the conflict, noting that at the beginning of the Russian “special military operation” in Ukraine both Moscow and the West probably had some “illusions” that the conflict could be resolved diplomatically. “Now we have this particular situation where military force only decides,” he said. Both Russia and Ukraine, he stressed, are now led by “a military logic” which suggests that any cessation of military action would give the other side a chance to regroup and prepare for further actions.

Mr. Lukyanov cannot have any competent opinion on SMO in principle because he is absolutely ignorant on anything related to military operations (or any operations, for that matter) because his horizon is a horizon of "journalist" and a recruiter for his publication based on credentialism of others like him and a rumor mill of Moscow political, yes, again, Beau Monde, period. Why this ignoramus, as well as others like him, unless, of course they are some sort of psyops by SVR which wants to parade Russians as heralds of geopolitical triviality, still find a tribune at RT beats me. Read my lips--happy times of "humanities" educated fanboys from Moscow (or D.C.) "humanities" madras are over--they have zero skills related to modern statesmanship and the main reason for that is because they have zero (in fact, negative, as is case with Lukyanov) understanding of power which is a main driver of modern geopolitics. It matters especially in the case of Lukyanov whose understanding of a  combined West is as reliable as my understanding of Chinese choreography.

Friday, March 25, 2022

Thanks To Bernhard Or About Losses, Again...

Bernhard of MoA did a great service by providing a link to the article from yesterday which, in this particular case, does provide words from Pentagon man, that is not just some BSer from Reuters or CNN, or  WSJ who make numbers up and then lie that those numbers are from their "sources".  But even this "15,000 Russian troops killed" dude had to cool it on the Ukie BS being used by US media:

The US and NATO disagree over an estimate of 40,000 Russian casualties in Ukraine. "We continue to have low confidence in those estimates" 

But as I stated, even Pentagon's "figure" (7,000-15,000 KIAs), if it was delivered by someone "in the know" shows the absolute lack of even fleeting grasp of what is going on on the ground in Ukraine. I agree with Bernhard's title of his article and its content:

Propaganda Does Not Change The War - The Ukraine Is Still Losing - Updated

That is why I constantly cringe when, yet another, "analyst" begins to weep about Russia "losing the information war". Russia couldn't have "won" such a war abroad, because it is the only field in which US excels--creation of virtual reality by means of non-stop lies in every single field US media cover, be it elections, health, war (especially war), science, education, you name it. They lie, that's what they do.  Part of this lie serves political agenda of non-stop elections shell game, which passes for "democracy", a euphemism of substituting one incompetent amoral ignoramus for another. The other part is a genuine ignorance, no more so than in the field of warfare. For every truth Russia delivers, there are 10 respective insane lies. 

Just to demonstrate what kind of fraud this "journalism" is, we may go to Columbia University Journo "Program" and partake in the most difficult (in involves some calculations) part of this pseudo-profession and it is Data Journalism. As the title implies, the future "journo" will be taught how to handle data. Just get the load of this from curriculum:

Data Journalism students begin their program in the fall taking foundational computational and data courses as well as courses on the fundamentals of reporting. In the second semester, they continue honing their journalistic skills with Writing with Data and the Data, Computation, Innovation workshop, where they will explore cutting-edge storytelling using data and computation, and take a 15‐week seminar and production course with the Master of Science students. In the final semester, students work on the Master’s Project, a substantive piece of data-driven journalism. They also join the Master of Science students in taking a suite of courses called Journalism Essentials, which covers the business, historical, legal and ethical issues of the field. They also take Storytelling with Data and Data, Computation, Innovation II. 

So, in other words, they teach those "students" some Python, maybe some statistics and "data handling" with application to exactly what? A-ha, here is the issue, assuming, of course, with a very high probability of those students trying to get their M.S. (yes, Master of fvcking Science) in this "field" having no serious math and physics fundamental education crucial for any field of the modern technology-infused world, and that is why no matter what grade they get in this Hodgepodge collection of intro level programming, multi-media and some basic data-handling, they will remain as ignorant on the realities of engineering and design practices, real physical economy or science. But they also will not get even in the most basic form real warfare, ranging from tactics and operational art to more complex issues of sensors, weapon systems integration and combat control--it is a completely different world which is fully obscured by fanboys on YouTube who wouldn't know the difference between math.expectation and probability of hitting the target, and, incidentally, is precisely completely obfuscated by these very "journalism" and "communications" graduates who do not know shit from shinola and have zero background in warfare.

I don't need to really expose here such "wonderful" examples of military "journalism" such as David Axe or Michael Peck, among many others who grace the pages of innumerable US publications on war and military porn, but they are not there to "report". They are there to spin. I do appreciate and I know there are real American (and Russian) military reporters out there who have seen some shit and they try to report honestly (including by risking their lives) on war issues, but that is still--reporting. It gives some touch to the reality on the ground, but the essential thing which runs modern war: strategic and operational planning, combat command and control--these are very different animals and anyone wouldn't even get close to those without graduating serious military higher learning institution and having serious tactical let alone operational planning experience at least at the level of regiment and its staff. Brigade and division staff level is still preferred. And it is this level at which one begins to learn to handle immense arrays of data of which fanboys who discuss how one or another tank looks like or why F-16 is sexier than MiG-29 (which, actually, is true) have no clue about, as are the graduates of this Data Journalism courses. 

That is why such a BS about 15,000 Russian KIAs makes it to Western media, spun, of course, for the sake of the agenda of powers that be and really, any claims by American or European journos about "freedom of press" are met today in Russia and elsewhere with a Homeric laughter. But even factoring all those PR-"professionals" and propaganda pushers one still doesn't get the problem resolved. Professionals, especially serious professionals, and my blog allows many of them to speak here, such as Larry Johnson, or, by references such as Colonel Vladimir Trukhan, or Scott Ritter or Colonel Macgregor, no matter how one tries to convey a complexity of a modern C2 (Command and Control) on the modern and very complex battlefield, Hollywood will always win, as will those "unnamed" Pentagon officials who would be "leaking" a complete BS and non-sense to ignoramuses from media, who exist only for sensation and not for honest reporting. Some of them, as you all know, are downright war criminals. 

It is not that Western journos spread lies, it is the fact that with each passing day their BS becomes so outlandish that one has to ask the question: do they even know what basic arithmetic is? I begin to doubt it. I can try to explain to some moron from NYT or WSJ (not that they will be interested in it) how the combat tasks are set and how planning develops from there, how to approximately calculate the force size for a company, even battalion to accomplish the task, where the reserves will come and how, but I cannot help in cases when their parents and schools didn't teach them basic adding and subtraction, not to speak of multiplication and division (ooh, boy those stochastic coefficients, you have to multiply there). So, that is why General Patton is America's main WW II "hero", because BS sells and no matter how one may hate (and they deserve it fully) Erick Von Manstein, Heinz Guderian or Walter Model, should these people be alive today, as would have been Zhukov, Tolbukhin or Rokossovsky, they all would have come to an agreement that the US learned all the wrong lessons from WW II and that explains why the US lost all of its wars which followed. Goebbels would have loved to have Anglo-American MSM journos in his org in Hell. They would fit right in. 

In related news. New anecdote from Russia, Madeleine Albright gets to the Charon the ferryman at the river Styx and offers him a coin (one sixth of a Drachma) for crossing the river. Charon shakes his head in disagreement and replies to her: "I accept only Rubles".

Monday, February 21, 2022

Anatol Lieven Is an Idiot.

Which is expected from Anglo-American dumbed down Ph.D in political pseudo-science and the guy who has absolutely zero background in modern world other than dropping quotes from people who described the world in times of dreadnoughts and ballistic tables at best, and operated on the very general idea of selsyn driven analogue computers and basic principles of internal combustion engines. This is in the basic case scenario. Now we have all these "humanities"-educated "strategists" running like a bunch of goats slated for the slaughter trying to make out what do they see in this complex reality and as the result we have this pseudo-scholastic BS in Soros-funded Quincy Institute:

Putin’s move on Donestk, Lugansk is illegal but falls short of new ‘invasion. The next steps are critical: we must hold threat of full scale sanctions and a Ukrainian military response, until Russia extends farther. 
They just don't learn. They are incapable of learning. Top-bottom. For Lieven, personally, learn the goddamn history of Russia of the 20th century before offering your ignorant opinion on the issues of mobilization and real economy before trying to make sense on the events of such a scale that the "professors" from your Cambridge College can not even wrap their pea-brains around it. Resign yourself to a simple fact that islanders (UK-and US) suck at real continental warfare and you know zilch about it in the 21st century (same is applied to real economy and R&D). Yet, they continue to bloviate. It is really nauseating reading sweeping generalizations on "strategy" from people who would not recognize the difference between uncertainty in getting a STD from a crack whore in London and uncertainty in targeting received from space based assets when sensory fused with platforms organic sensors. Yet, here we are, good ol' boys from "elite" colleges where they pretend to "study" trying to make a sense out of what they see, having no tools to grasp it. That is why his "reasoning" reads like this: 
Russia’s action has narrowed the space for diplomacy to resolve this crisis, but not yet destroyed it. As long as there is any hope of preventing a wider war, it is our duty to pursue it, both by the genuine and credible threat of massive economic sanctions, and by the genuine and sincere offer of reasonable compromise.
Sounds and reads as that of a totally detached from the reality teenager. Sad, really, seeing this demagogue (together with Rod Dreher from TAC among many others) having a tribune in yet another pseudo "realist" remuneration source in D.C. Andrew Bacevich should know better. Especially the fact that US "diplomacy" is a simulacrum.

Tuesday, December 28, 2021

Yeah, Yeah, I Know, Beaten To Death...

...topic and many people spoke about US "elites" generally having no clue about the world outside and, in case of Russia, having a deliberate BS narratives which, in addition, exacerbate institutional ignorance in the West in general, and US in particular. Among the latest on ignorance of Russia is by Tarik Amar in RT. 

Ignorance of Russia among Western elites is dangerous. A belligerent new intervention reveals just how far removed from reality many Western hawks are 

But truth is, former Sweden's PM Karl Bildt is known in Russia as a certified moron, same as former US Ambassador Michael McFaul, so there is very little use in discussing people who have serious learning disabilities and are uncultured, to boot. By being uncultured I, of course, do not mean that they lack superficial refinement, they don't, I am sure they know many fine Scotches and love to eat in reputable restaurants. No, by being cultured I mean people with moral principles and serious understanding of their craft. 

But the moment Amar makes his argument about general Western ignorance of Russia (not to mention a deliberate malicious lies), bang--one of the "Russia scholars" rears his ugly mind on Yahoo news and, first, bloviates on economic matters of Russia which he cannot possibly understand and then comes up with this wowser:

Courageous Navalny personifies limited but growing opposition to the Putin regime, which after two decades is now increasingly repressive. Management of the latest press conference reflects this harshness. In the past, media applied for accreditation. This time, by contrast, the Kremlin selected those who could attend. Approximately five hundred domestic and international press representatives participated. Among publications excluded was “Novaya Gazeta.” Managing Editor Dmitry Muratov just received the Nobel Peace Prize. Fellow journalist Maria Ressa of the Philippines also got the prestigious award. Both demonstrate great courage in opposing repression, resisting intimidation, thereby risking their lives and their careers. Media understandably focus on Ukraine, where Russia’s ominous military buildup continues. Putin heatedly asserted NATO is the provocateur, which is false.

Hm, let's see who the author of this drivel is. His name is Arthur I. Cyr. And as you may have guessed it already he is a... political "scientist".

What is most aggravating here is that this guy served in "intelligence" and was involved with Chatam House, which explains why the guy spews utter BS--West's situational awareness of Russia is not just zero, it is genuinely negative due to the fallacy of the whole educational and analytical framework in the combined West which time after time provided astounding records of failure. It is especially true of UK-based "think-tanks" which still cannot overcome their sorrow of finding UK a lapdog of the United States and a country whose military and economic capabilities are those of a second-rate power, which is being kept in this league due to association with the US. Judging by the British "elites" the degeneracy is now a defining trait there. But, hey, at least English Premier League is still really good.  

Dude, that's the Siemens hat you are wearing.
The only competencies these people have are those of "analysts" of apparatchiks' games inside the swamp of America's political discourse and they still cannot learn the difference between policies and PR politicking which passes for policies. And Mr. Cyr by repeating same beaten to death tropes proves without a shadow of a doubt that political science, same as Western economism are scientifically fraudulent fields entirely unfit for tackling the issues of the modern era and the proof is in the pudding: since NO Western think-tank or member of "academe" could foresee a military and economic (not to speak of cultural and social) calamity which befell the Western civilization. Their failure is so stunning in its scale and scope that by now one has to question if these people, among which is Mr. Arthur I. Cyr are competent enough to mow the lawn let alone offer their utterly ignorant opinions on the subject they have no clue about.  In reality, they never did--I should know, I was there, while holding a very serious clearance. They didn't, simple as that. So, it is not me but Mr. Cyr who arrives to sheer idiocy as his conclusion:

Realism should guide policy, emphasizing the essential role of nation-states, and focus on national interests. A source of basic U.S. strength is our market economy, increasingly the way of the world. Russia today remains influential but isolated.

I once expressed myself on American "realists".  Come to think about it, this whole blog is about American "realists". And how there is very little realism in them.

Monday, July 26, 2021

You Cannot Help Them, Or Captains Obvious.

When I write about US crisis I constantly stress that it is systemic and it is institutional. Very few American institutes are as tragicomical and popular as being butts of the jokes around the world than the so called America's "Intelligence Community". It's failures to assess or to predict anything are so spectacular, that one must question a validity of their "analytical" methodology. To illustrate this, it is enough to take a look at a comment to a release in 2012 by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence Global Trends Projections 2030. 

Report projects U.S. as "first among equals," but the "unipolar moment" is over.

Well, here we are in the year of 2021, 9 years before the end date of these "projections", and, boy, are we in for a surprise. I am not talking about "unipolar moment" which was over in 2007 after Putin's Munich Speech and wiping the floor with the US client of post-Soviet country of Georgia in the five day war in 2008. That it was over was clear already then. No, I am talking the "first among equals". There is a lot of wrong with statement, because seeing the size of America's real economy today, and yes, I am talking about actual manufacturing, one is forced to concede that American economy is nowhere near the Chinese one and continues to deindustrialize at accelerated rate. Yes, my brand new refrigerator is made in Mexico, the new stove is made in China, and pretty much any consumer good sold today inside the US is NOT made in America. And these are consumer goods only, there are other goods and resources which have non-US origin and are critical for what remains of the US productive economy. Be that China's rare earth elements, Russia's titanium for US aerospace, or many other things and the list is long. 

So, no, the US is not "first among equals" since China dwarfs the United States economically, while Russia neutralized most of US military capabilities by making systems which the United States simply can not and it is doubtful will be able to close ever-increasing military-technological gap with Russia both in enablers and weapons which shape modern geopolitics. No doubt, this year, yet another Captain Obvious "assessment", on Threats to the US no less, has been produced with an "intelligence insight" of such a profundity that one really begins to scratch the head.

If this is the "level" of "intelligence" assessments, I need to call on Mr. Lavrov. 

Neither USSR, nor Russia in post WW II time ever wanted "a direct conflict" with "US Forces", which wouldn't be able to survive it to start with, but tried to avoid escalation towards conflict knowing simply way more about real war and how it looks like than any US policy-maker or general. Truth is, in terms of "undermining" US influence, the United States does a swell job itself. In fact, Russia couldn't even dream about undermining the US influence with such incredible efficiency than the US does on its own. Posting trite obvious facts or, on the other hand, elaborate, but easily debunked, lies by the so called US intelligence community IS the part of this undermining and if anyone wanted to see a complete dysfunction and a monstrous BS-producing machine, one doesn't need to look further than Trump's Presidency and Elections 2020. 

Of course, no one should expect any public domain assessments even from the top notch analytical orgs to be perfect. One will always find inconsistencies and, sometimes, obvious half-truths, but in the American case it is an absolutely defining feature of exposing oneself as simply ignorant on the culture and intentions of those who the United States counts as enemies. American enemies are those who are better at things America thinks they cannot be. Well, that's exceptionalism for you. But the US National Intelligence Council, certainly, thinks that it is smarter than  anybody else and does this:

WASHINGTON, D.C. – The National Intelligence Council (NIC) today released the seventh edition of its quadrennial Global Trends report. Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World is an unclassified assessment of the forces and dynamics that the NIC anticipates are likely to shape the national security environment over the next 20 years. Global Trends 2040 identifies four structural forces that will shape the future – demographics, the environment, economics, and technology – and assesses how they affect decisions and outcomes. It further describes five potential scenarios for the world in 2040, based on different combinations of the structural forces, emerging dynamics, and key uncertainties. It ends with a series of graphics displaying key demographic trends in nine geographic regions.

Oh, boy, economics and technology are "identified" as "likely to shape the national security environment". In related news, water is wet, wind blows and the sky is blue. But never mind, these two factors have been decisive factors in anything for much longer than the United States exists, good that somebody noticed now. I will omit here commenting on important but grossly de-scientified in the West issue of environmental change and, correctly assuming, the level of wokeness and social and cultural insanity affecting ALL US institutions today, I will leave this important issue outside of this discussion. For now. So, here is this latest Global Trends 2040. The opening salvo is devastating in one of the four scenarios of the future:

I believe this scenario was written by the same people who shot CIA recruitment videos and people who graduated "economics" programs in Ivy League schools and know Modern Monetary Theory. Of course, you will not find anywhere in this assessment how to reindustrialize the United States and concentrate resources on real innovations, other than discovering new genders and fields of "study" such as Queer studies or Constructing the Grievance Industry. Of course after this wowser they go for the favorite term in the US military-intelligence-media complex: disruptions and disruptors, meaning anything that "undermines international order", that is disappearing US, primarily self-proclaimed, hegemony.

The world is fragmented into several economic and security blocs of varying size and strength, centered on the United States, China, the EU, Russia, and a few region-al powers, and focused on self-sufficiency, resiliency, and defense. Information flows within separate cyber-sovereign enclaves, supply chains are reoriented, and international trade is disrupted. Vulnerable developing countries are caught in the middle

Actually, "Vulnerable developing countries" in Eurasia will be doing just fine and will feel very safe from being bombed by "democratic", if not queer, stand-off weapons and have their regime changed. Being caught in the middle is not such a bad proposition after seeing how successful "democratization" by the US went in Iraq, Afghanistan and other places. But then they suddenly come to a sensible conclusion, surprise!

Material Power. Military capabilities and economic size will remain the foundation of state capacity and power projection, compel-ling other countries to take a state’s interests and policies into account. These two areas of power allow states to maintain their security and to amass resources that enable other elements of power. 

In related news, water is wet, the sky is blue...well, you know the routine. And then comes the BANG!

Other major powers, including Russia, the EU, Japan, the United Kingdom, and potentially India, could have more maneuvering room to exercise influence during the next two decades, and they are likely to be consequential in shaping geopolitical and economic outcomes as well as evolving norms and rules.Russia is likely to remain a disruptive power for much or all of the next two decades even as its material capabilities decline relative to other major players. Russia’s advantages, including a sizeable conventional military, weapons of mass destruction, energy and mineral resources, an expansive geography, and a willingness to use force overseas, will enable it to continue playing the role of spoiler and power broker in the post-Soviet space, and at times farther afield. Moscow most likely will continue trying to amplify divisions in the West and to build relationships in Africa, across the Middle East, and elsewhere. Russia probably will look for economic opportunity and to establish a dominant military position in the Arc-tic as more countries step up their presence in the region. However, with a poor investment  climate, high reliance on commodities with potentially volatile prices, and a small economy—projected to be approximately 2 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP) for the next two decades—Russia may struggle to project and maintain influence globally. President Vladimir Putin’s departure from power, either at the end of his current term in 2024 or later, could more quickly erode Russia’s geopolitical position, especially if internal instability ensues. Similarly, a decrease in Europe’s energy dependence on Russia, either through renewables or diversifying to other gas suppliers, would undercut the Kremlin’s revenue generation and overall capacity, especially if those decreases could not be offset with exports to customers in Asia.      

My beef here is not with BS written about Russia--by now, there are no real professional Russoists in US "intelligence community" (speaking Russian doesn't make one a "specialist in Russia") and one should expect such idiocy, plus always consider a severe butt-hurt factor when speaking about Russia to American exceptionalists--they are still pissed off  with Russia defeating Hitler, flying first to space, having better education system, superior weapons and military history and now fast closing the gap in terms of living standard. No, you would expect that. My beef is with the bunch of morons who consider the UK a "major power". Really? How, can anyone explain it to me? Country devoid of any serious natural resources, with economy consisting primarily of FIRE, with no independent aerospace industry capable out of own resources to produce a basic commercial let alone combat aircraft, having no space program, drowning in the cesspool of multiculturalism and insidious Islamization, having a PM who is a certified idiot and being on the verge of disintegration, with Scots having a different views on the UK altogether. And yes, UK has a lone operational destroyer and her two carriers deploy a terrifying weapon--F-35B which is a...well, flies not that well, to put it mildly. 

But that doesn't prevent this "Intelligence Council" from publishing an absolutely risible, and traditionally wrong, yet another pack of BS which is filled with catch phrases and buzzwords of increasingly detached from the reality and grossly ideological American discourse in any serious professional field ranging from politics to war, to intelligence or the so called "diplomacy". If you wanted to see how decreasing intellect and professionalism manifest themselves in a society which does not produce anything but wet dreams--read this document. You cannot help them, that is how they were brought up--to be ignorant.

Thursday, April 1, 2021

They (Neocons) May Have Anger Issues...

UNZ published a transcript of an excellent conversation between Pepe Escobar and Michael Hudson, which you can watch here:

It is a delightful, in its intellect and scope, 2 hours of back and forth, but one thought by Michael Hudson stands out when he speaks about people in the United States who are driving US' insane foreign policy or, rather, lack of it. I touch on this issue in each and every of my books, but especially the last one, but here is what Hudson, who is close to "decision-making" circles posits:

The Americans want war. The people that Biden has appointed have an emotional hatred of Russia. I’ve spoken to government people who are close to the Democratic Party, and they’ve told me that there’s a pathological emotional desire for war with Russia, largely stemming from the fact that the Tzars were anti-Semitic and there’s still the hatred about their ancestors: “Look what they did to my great-grandfather.” And so they’re willing to back the Nazis, back the anti-Semites in Ukraine. They’re willing to back today’s anti-Semites all over the world as long as they’re getting back at this emotional focus on a kind of post 19th-century economy. I’ve met these people. Their emotion is one of hatred and anger. You can look at their face and see what they’ve become. This is really dangerous. They are crazy. And Putin is quite right. America has got its power by breaking contracts. It broke all of the contracts with the native Americans to take their land. It’s broken the Iranian contract. It broke most recently the Ukrainian Minsk agreement, and the JCP before. So what’s the point of making an agreement with any Americans

Here is what I am constantly trying to stress--you do not negotiate with a mad bunch, especially afflicted with a narrow ethno-religious trauma, which over the years is being re-amplified in an echo-chamber of the American Jewish immigration, whose ascendance to the very top of the American political power and influence in the post-WW II period came through what some, wrongly, continue to view as intellectual neoconservative (Trotskyist) movement, which was neither "conservative", in any applicable sense nor, most importantly, intellectual. American neoconservative movement is a combination of a shoddy scholarship, if not altogether outright pseudo-religious demagoguery and falsification, and of a masterful, needs to be admitted, manipulation with the American propensity for self-aggrandizing for the reasons which, in reality, go completely counter to the interests of the majority of American population.  

That is why Lavrov today was explicit when stated that "confrontation in bi-lateral relations reached bottom" (in Russian). I may only add that down the road expect the knock from below. And here is the point--American neoconservatism is extremely illiterate in some of the most crucial  aspects of the national security and that is warfare and competent diplomacy. Even a brief review of "intellectual" concoctions by the America's neocons, be that risible Fukuyama's psychobabble, which is neocon in its essence, or any type of Kagan family cabal's bloviation on matters of history and war--American neoconservatism was never competent. It is sure as hell marked by the crusading spirit against human nature and history but that is as far as it goes. So, you cannot explain to a bunch of American Jewish or WASP neocon "scholars" and "influencers" sucking on the teat of America's real and perceived power that before they undertake any practical action based on their loony theories, they better do basic cost-benefit analysis and this one is precisely about them willing to continue to hate Russia at the cost of being turned into radioactive, or just simple, inert, ash or they would want a benefit of staying alive, which comes with resorting to a more peaceful posture. 

This is precisely the occasion on which one makes the case not in terms of "policy", "agreements" or "balance", but in terms of how and where people who push for war, and that is about 99.99% of America's neocon cabal, will get it and how it will look like. In other words, one shows them the weapon by which they will be killed in case they want to unleash a war. Considering the fact that American neocons are not good militarily, in fact many of them are the ones who drive incompetent American militarist propaganda, one is forced to put it in terms those people, who never experienced anything beyond the danger, as Phil Giraldi put it "of chocking on foie gras"  or Power Point applications getting frozen during the presentation or yet another pseudo-academic BS in neocon think-tanks, in terms those people can understand. Neocons, while loving to play with the lives of others, are extremely sensitive to a death coming their way. It is one of the reasons why we still all live in a relatively peaceful environment. 

They do understand and are scared of death. Even when they are convinced, due to their technological, operational and tactical illiteracy, that when Putin stated in February 2019 this:

He didn't mean the White House, Pentagon or, say, Capitol--no, coordinates of those are contained in the guidance computers of Russia's weapon systems since my tender childhood. Same as Kremlin or Russia's government House are in the American ones. Nothing new here. This is not news and this is not what Putin was talking about. As I state constantly, modern weapon systems have a an unprecedented precision and accuracy. You can today, literally, fly a cruise missile into the window of a house if you have to. Russia's stand-off systems, moreover, have unprecedented ranges. So, if any of the warmongers thinks that they maybe safe in New Zealand or Patagonia--they are really wrong. Nuclear weapons are easy, but those are non-nuclear ones which allow to receive targeting and deliver a salvo of cruise missiles anywhere in the world by means of moving a submarine into firing position anywhere around the globe, including but not limited to Patagonia, New Zealand, Australia or Antarctica, for a good measure. Modern targeting systems of Russia, such as Liana, which is already operational, are high orbit satellite constellations (1,000 + km) which are safe from modern Western anti-satellite missiles, not to mention other means of reconnaissance and targeting which are networked  and well protected. 

In the end, Russian special ops, which also have a very good record of clandestine deployments around the world, do not care where modern SSN or SSGN will deploy them--in South America or Asia. And that is what Putin meant by "decision-making centers". Anyone responsible for unleashing hell on Earth will be found and annihilated either in some specific building in Europe or the US, or will be annihilated or captured personally anywhere in the world. Many forget, that in 1996, the leader of Chechen separatists Dzhohar Dudaev was killed by laser guided bombs with targeting provided based on his use of satellite telephone. That was 25 years ago. Since then Russia moved into the revolutionary warfare territory both in terms of C4ISR and in terms of weapons and that is why if any plans of "sitting out" a war between Russia and NATO exist in the midst of US warmongers, most of them from neocon zoo, the explanation of impossibility of such a plan is a matter of presentation and demonstration of what modern Russian weapon systems can do, and the names of those in US and Europe who push for war are well-known to Russians. This is precisely what Russia was doing for the last 7 years and this is the reason for increasing pitch of anti-Russian hysteria--I know, it is frustrating when one hates Russia more than anything but knows that one can only scream at her and not much more without the danger of being annihilated oneself. 

So, they get this crucial difference between being dead and alive and this is good. So, they want war but they will not get it on their terms--this is called an escalation dominance which comes in the way of real revolution in military affairs. While neocons studied political pseudo-science and ersatz history in US Ivy League universities, Russians were studying physics of flight and of signal processing, among many other things and that is why Russian don't have many doctrines--they have one, but this one works. The United States produces very many of them but as the chief editor of Russia’s popular military-analytical bi-monthly, Arsenal of Fatherland (Arsenal Otechestva), former cadre Russian Air Force officer Alexey Leonkov, states explicitly when commenting of the fact that Americans are global leaders in a number of developed strategies, that there is only one problem with all of them—they are not survivable when faced with reality. Neither are globalist plans on "Reset" which are now merely limited to US, which outlived its use for globalists, whose integral part American neocons are, and Europe which will be subdued and turned into the reservation for economic "units" without culture, nationality and humanity. 

This also explains a desperate desire of the United States to unleash a war, any kind of war in Ukraine and to get Russia into any kind of calamity there and make her spend her resources on  this shithole of a country. But here too, as it is a tradition, a huge miscalculation was made in 2014 and ever since because neocons who pushed this agenda listened to non-neocon but a typical bloviating Russophobe Zbigniew Brzezinski who preached his gospel of Russia's revival being utterly tied to Ukraine reintegrating into Russia. As always, the real situation was exactly the opposite. But they don't learn in D.C. because they cannot--they are ignorant to start with, plus hatred denies them access to the last remaining iota of common sense and knowledge and we have what we have today. But behind all of that is a systemic and irresolvable crisis of financial predatory capitalism, which goes under different monikers, but remains the same, as Michael Hudson astutely put it--the parasite finally ate the host. In this case, the neocon insanity in the US is merely a private symptom of a larger ailment.  

In related news. This is Russia moving her troops (some of it--yes, this is this proverbial netcentricity and C4ISR on the move) into Crimea a week ago. 

If Ukraine wants to really fight Russia--sure, let them. I wonder where all those Ukrainian "decision-making centers" are. Nah, I am being facetious--Russians know where, and who mans them, if you know what I mean. So, they better address their anger issues--that could be a good start.

Thursday, February 18, 2021

Untreatable. Soft Power (Part 2).

I want to start with few things when writing about soft power which are greatly summarized by old Russian anecdote about a man who lost his car keys in the dark alley but chose to look for them under the bright street light "because it is easier to look for them here". This is a defining trait of what passes in the US for the "intellectual class" and I have some examples to illustrate this, which is a testimony to a very low level of education (not in a formal sense, albeit in this too) and culture of these people. And I am not talking about "lefty", associated primarily with the Democrats that is, psychobabbling strata of people who pretend to be thinkers, but about what would allegedly be perceived as, by definition, more cultured and educated people of the "conservative" intellectual movement in the US. Well, truth is--they are not, and produce the same shallow pretentious drudgery which hides its intellectual feebleness behind lofty rhetoric and semantic constructs, which bear absolutely no meaning. 

Here is where Russia comes in play as a litmus test. American "intellectual class" simply has no clue about Russia, especially modern Russia and will not know about her for a reason of this American intelligentsia being precisely anti-intellectual in the most extreme form. This goes beyond Daniel Larison's dictum of US elites' ignorance of the outside world. American "intellectuals" who associate themselves with those "elites" are ignorant too and they are incapable of learning--a defining feature of American elites. It is impossible when one is afflicted by the untreatable disorder or projecting one's own psychosis, born out of a deadly mix of low cultural level and uncontrollable desire to pontificate on the subjects American "intellectual" has no clue about, onto others. So, the paradigm of looking for the car keys, lost in the dark alley, in the place which is brightly lit "because it is easier to look for them here" unfolds. Or, using even older Russian proverb--the pig will always find a dirt to lay in. 

Russia in this case is a perfect tool for deconstructing American "intellectuals" impotence and ignorance because this American intelligentsia for decades cannot get Russia right and will not get her right, or, as I like to say, will not be able to find its ass with its own both hands in the brightly lit room. A gigantic body of empirical evidence of this intellectual feebleness exists in a form of a disaster, which the United States of today are, which was predicted long ago by many... Russians. Yet, as another piece in today's The American Conservative suggests, the strata of what is called Kreakls in Russia and which is universally despised by overwhelming majority of Russians is accepted as Russia's "rebuke". 

The internationally award-winning stage and screen director Konstantin Bogomolov has declaimed on civilizational decline with a scathing manifesto published recently in the Moscow daily Novaya Gazeta. He has ignited a firestorm of debate by laying blame for the erosion of freedom of expression in the West at the feet of what he calls a “New Ethical Reich.” This regime resembles the most odious of the 20th century in its worst tendencies. Readers of TAC will no doubt cheer his courage in excoriating the, ironically, totalitarian liberals who seek to turn us all into thought police.       

This whole piece by some "political consultant" is preposterous in its pretense of reflecting "real Russia" and how Russians feel. Here is a test--did you encounter any American "intellectual" or "political consultant" reviewing, say, first rate works by Russian real intellectuals or directors such as those who made a massively impactful and influential movie 28 Panfilov Men. Of course not, what overwhelming majority of Russians thinks is of no interest to American "intellectuals" for a number of reasons, among which their conviction of own greatness, precludes them from learning of what Russia actually thinks. So, instead of paying attention to real Russia and Russians, this Ajjan guy, pulls out of hat opinions of some Kreakl, Konstantin Bogomolov, whose desperate meandering lamentation about combined West sliding into the dark ages was printed in the Novaya Gazeta--an official Kreaklo-liberda (owners are billionaire Lebedev and, no less, than Gorbachev himself and Mikhail Khodorkovsky as grey cardinal) source for either outright Russophobic lies or, almost non-stop, anti-Russian propaganda.

So is Konstantin Bogomolov who is a bona-fide Russophobe and a classic representative of Russian liberda who, seeing both a catastrophe of the combined West and a complete failure, due to both lack of any support among Russians and, in fact, increasing hatred for them, of Navalny's provocations, suddenly does a trick known in Russia as changing shoes in the jump and assaults Russian liberda. Liberda being largely a euphemism for Russophobes, significant share of them being West's intelligence assets, and the West. Paul Robinson had enough stomach to discuss this Bogomolov's lamentations, I don't, because I know that Bogomolov, being a director from a Moscow liberal Parnassus, has about the same understanding of modern world as Mr. Ajjan who found it worthy of attention discussing thoughts of some liberal opportunist. Which among overwhelming majority of Russian public didn't create nothing but arrival to the conclusion that Bogomolov is merely trying to fit into the new old reality of Russia which is "conservative" in Russian sense by her nature, always was and will always remain. 

Opinions of some Moscow liberal Beau Monde boy, who had enough audacity, combined with lack of taste, to scrap the bottom of the Russia's liberal barrel and marry Russia's slut-in-charge Kseniya Sobchak, are as consequential to Russians as opinions of this very Mr. Ajjan and the discussion is not about Bogomolov, but about presenting a fecal matter of Russia's creative class as something that matters. Ajjan doesn't just stop at accepting Bogomolov's frustrations as viable, but he concludes:

But Russia is fortunate to have a cultural icon who can articulate a worldview, who encourages his countrymen to think for themselves critically as they resist the thought police, and who ponders his nation’s European future at a time when self-hatred seems to rule the day and all the very best legacies of Europe risk falling prey to a “cancel culture.” Refreshingly, his thoughts go beyond the relative merits or disgraces of Vladimir Putin as head of state; they cut right to the heart of what kind of nation Russians might want to be as a people and what kind of Europe they aspire to be a part of.

Mr. Ajjan, obviously, doesn't have any clue on modern Russia and on Russian culture in general, because Bogomolov "thoughts" are exactly part and parcel of Western thought today and, as this proverbial pig looking for a dirt to lay anywhere, Ajjan recognizes in Bogomolov's miasma of a thought something what defines American elites' "intellect" today. It has nothing to do with Russia and Russians who already know, contrary to Mr. Ajjan's pontification, what they "want to be as a people" and why they DO NOT want to be a part of Europe. How Mr, Ajjan missed this important tectonic shift which occurred in the 21st century Russia is absolutely mind-boggling. But then again, this is precisely my point--it is not about Russia and Russians, who Western intellectuals hate in their overwhelming majority, but about them not even recognizing a real geopolitical storm, which was and is being driven by overwhelming majority of Russians whose culture IS NOT defined by Bogomolov and his ilk. Bogomolov's "thoughts" are absolutely inconsequential for Russia, with the exception of a shrinking cesspool of Russia's liberal creative class who, same as its Western counterpart, is badly educated, ambitious and self-centered. 

So, calling derivative opinions stolen by Bogomolov from real Russian intellectuals who warned about West's totalitarian direction already in 1990s and his ignorant ramblings about Russian culture and people, a "Rebuke" tells one everything one needs to know about what constitutes today "notable" opinions at the American "conservative" intellectual kitchen on Russia. This is not speak of the fact that calling Bogomolov a "cultural icon" shows a degree of ignorance of Russian realities by Ajjan and people at TAC who published this drivel. Yet, not to be outdone, The American Conservative publishes yet another "Russia" piece and as you may have guessed it--about Solzhenitsyn. 

Micah Mattix reviews yet another "treatise" on Solzehnitsyn scribes by Robert Kaplan who reviews Solzhentsyn's unreadable (you would expect that from Kaplan to not understand it--most American "Russian scholars" do not speak Russian at all or barely) and Kaplan writes this:

Solzhenitsyn’s dissection of the Russian defeat at the Battle of Tannenberg, which occupies much of the action of August 1914, should be studied at every military war college. Without that failure, there might well have been no Romanov abdication, no Lenin, thus no twentieth century as we know it. Solzhenitsyn’s presentation of the battle over hundreds of pages is panoramic, immersive, and masterly, the equivalent in typewriter ink of Pieter Brueghel the Elder’s Fight Between Carnival and Lent. As with any writer of great epics, Solzhenitsyn knows many disparate things: the technicalities of artillery formations and field maneuvers; the mental process by which semi-starving, over-extended, and ill-led soldiers become looters; how small changes in terrain affect forced marches; as well as the placement of the stars in the night sky and the names of many Orthodox saints.    

Let me put it this way only an American neocon journo could have come up with this  doozy of a thought, since literally every line in it is an Exhibit A of a military and historical delusions of Kaplan, which are inevitable when one considers who Solzhenitsyn was and the level of falsifications of Russian history he reached. Solzhenitsyn never was a historian, let alone military historian, despite his "service" in WW II as a coachman in the rear, at first, and then as a commander of sound battery. Such battery was not really a battery of guns but a collection of the distributed microphones deployed in the rear, yet again, to triangulate by the sound of enemy's guns their position for counter-battery operations by the actual front-line artillery units. Right before Solzhenitsyn faced an actual combat in a deadly assault on Koniegsberg, he made sure that he is removed from the Army and arrested to sit out the end of the war in GULAG. He successfully achieved that and after release started to invent alternative history, first on his own, later with a great deal of aid from the West. Militarily he was always an amateur and open liar. But, hey, if Kaplan wants to use a now well-known falsifier as a study in any War College--I have some news for  Kaplan, Solzhenitsyn is not allowed anywhere near any Russian military academy or war college precisely because Russians know about their history, especially military one, slightly more than  Solzhenitsyn ever knew (in fact he did all he could to avoid studying it), not to mention Robert Kaplan or, for that matter, most modern American (and Western) "Russian studies" field "scholars" who are on the front line of facing Russia's soft power because actual Russian military and political history from WW I through WW II not only testifies to Solzhenitsyn's mediocre literary gifts but debunks completely the history of the 20th Century Solzhenitsyn wrote for the West in order to counter an appreciation by the world of the Soviet/Russian decisive contribution to a defeat of Axis powers/ But then again, Kaplan never heard of the Central Archives of Defense Ministry in Podolsk, nor did he ever try to read Krivosheev, Svechin, Denikin, Triandafilov and memoirs of a bunch White movement generals, which, actually, were published even in USSR and who contradict Solzhenitsyn at every turn. But, of course, what those participants in the actual events know about it, right?

Indeed, who needs to study anything when one "political adviser" declares a rather artistic mediocrity and a pathetic excuse for "intellectual" a Russian "cultural icon", while the other thinks that one of the most significant falsifiers of history and military ignoramus must be "studied in every military war college". Sure, if the situation with the US Armed Forces is not bad enough, any Russian would suggest to study Solzhenitsyn in both US Naval and US Army war college since it will assure an additional confusion in already utterly cognitively dissonanced US military services to lose even more in terms of good solid study of tactics, operational art and strategy. But that just exposes what I am writing about for many years--American "intellectuals" are not there to study Russia, they are there to insulate already increasingly ignorant American public from the realities of the only country which can wipe the United States off the map and which drives a historic transition of the world to multi-polarity, because Americans  are not supposed to be subjected to a culture which is not only much older but much wiser in terms of what many Americans think they are the best at--real war. 

American intellectual elite made its choice long time ago and it lies about Russia not only today, it did it always after the WW II trying to both address its own complex of inferiority towards Soviets upon checking the balance of contributions and costs in the America's emergence as a superpower after the WW II--yes, yes, it was Patton who defeated Meinstein and Model at Kursk and Stalingrad--as well as due to inherent arrogance, which De Tocqueville defined as American "garrulous patriotism", of American "intellectual" who thought that he he knew the world. He didn't, especially in both historic terms and time. Today, with the explosive development of mass-communications the American "intellectual" is under increasing pressure, if not assault, of images, facts, news, events, sounds from Russia which blow this American "intellectual" view of the world completely out of the water. For this "intellectual" it is a horrifying ordeal to see all chimeras he grew up with--from GULAG Archipelago, to WW II to the sense of the America's halcyon times' emotional high, against the reality which is ruthless and always wins... Let's recall Whitman Bassow's quip from his excellent book in 1988:

(American) TV has by and large failed to convey the flavor of life in the USSR in a systematic way    

In 33 years since then nothing changed, in fact things became worse, much worse. For American "intellectuals" many of who were behind this deterioration things are getting increasingly difficult because in modern world America has nothing to offer and, bar a complete censorship and thought-control, which are coming, has nothing to counter Russia's increasing soft power with, because for the first time in centuries, majority, overwhelming majority of Russians do not give a damn about how combined West thinks about them, especially repeating beaten to death utterly false cliches and lies and thus are totally free to create. This is a key strength in unfolding global clash between modern Russian intellect and culture and untreatable ignorance of the America's intellectual class. 

To Be Continued...