Amrit wrote excellent post on China in previous discussion board, but here is OPEC data which shows one of a number of vulnerabilities for China's massive industry. And that has a direct impact on China's posture.
... with Li Jingjing's thesis--it is difficult to concentrate on what she says, because of marveling at her stunning beauty. Complete distraction)) This is just a bit of Friday pleasantries for you.
But the report is interesting. Russia will help, if not already, with restoring Mi-17s helis which Pentagon was buying for Afghan government before it fell. There is also very little what Russia or China can find interesting in what was left by US forces, but the truth is--Russia is interested in stabilizing Afghanistan before even considering recognizing Taliban. Russians naturally have questions to them regarding treatment of women. Russia still provides humanitarian aid anyway though.
... talks here about strategy and he makes much more sense than any of the NATO or US generals parading themselves as military amateurs in the capacity of military "experts" for all kinds of "news" outlets.
It is not just India which has JV with Russia known as Brahmos. Nope, the deputy head of Corporation Tactical Missile Armaments (KRTV) would have never articulated this without OK from higher-ups.
Translation: MOSCOW, March 17 - RIA Novosti. The Tactical Missile Weapons Corporation (KTRV) does not exclude the possibility of transferring hypersonic technologies to friendly countries in the future if an appropriate political decision is made, Deputy General Director of KTRV Konstantin Biryulin told RIA Novosti. "The question is how ready we are to transfer these new technologies to our friends, to those who are friends with us and are our real partners. This is a political decision. If there is such a decision, I think that we will find an opportunity to transfer these technologies," Biryulin said, answering a related question.
Oh, well, we all know what "friendly countries" Konstantin Biryulin is talking about. Dear Comrade Xi arrives to Moscow on the 21st. I am 100% positive that his good close friend Vladimir will gladly discuss and "acquiesce" to the proposition of Chinese friends to help out a bit in an around First Island Chain, or maybe even beyond, by means of sharing some knowledge and hardware with China. Kinzhal is a mature weapons system which sees combat use to a devastating effect almost daily in 404. How strange, Bashar Assad also said that, hey, how about some Kinzhals in Syria?
Will Zircons follow? Let me remind you that development of shorter (up to 1,000 km) and "lighter" version of 3M22 Zircon for small missile ships of Russian Navy was already declared a few years back. Who says that Russia cannot supply those to "friendly countries". After all, since Russia paused her START participation, who said that Russia should keep a gentleman's agreement on non-proliferation of the cruise missile technologies limiting their range to 300 kilometers. Hey, India already launches her Brahmos at the range of 800+ kilometers and is getting ready to enter hyper-sonic territory by 2027-28. It was coming and now people of import confirm--Russia is ready to help out. Boy, those A2/AD "bubbles" suddenly look very dangerous and grow in size. Start your stop-watches, gents, before you will hear moans of desperation from the swamp.
... reportedly to fight two wars.
In related news--I want to fly as a bird and sing as Freddy Mercury (or Marc Martel). And why not? Nobody forbids us from wanting things. Those wants are called dreams. So, dream on me and NATO. But, as I discussed it today with James Kunstler and Thomas--Washington completely lost the ability to calculate anything, from economics to military operations. But a dramatic change of tone in Western media is telling.
When I write about US crisis I constantly stress that it is systemic and it is institutional. Very few American institutes are as tragicomical and popular as being butts of the jokes around the world than the so called America's "Intelligence Community". It's failures to assess or to predict anything are so spectacular, that one must question a validity of their "analytical" methodology. To illustrate this, it is enough to take a look at a comment to a release in 2012 by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence Global Trends Projections 2030.
Report projects U.S. as "first among equals," but the "unipolar moment" is over.
Well, here we are in the year of 2021, 9 years before the end date of these "projections", and, boy, are we in for a surprise. I am not talking about "unipolar moment" which was over in 2007 after Putin's Munich Speech and wiping the floor with the US client of post-Soviet country of Georgia in the five day war in 2008. That it was over was clear already then. No, I am talking the "first among equals". There is a lot of wrong with statement, because seeing the size of America's real economy today, and yes, I am talking about actual manufacturing, one is forced to concede that American economy is nowhere near the Chinese one and continues to deindustrialize at accelerated rate. Yes, my brand new refrigerator is made in Mexico, the new stove is made in China, and pretty much any consumer good sold today inside the US is NOT made in America. And these are consumer goods only, there are other goods and resources which have non-US origin and are critical for what remains of the US productive economy. Be that China's rare earth elements, Russia's titanium for US aerospace, or many other things and the list is long.
So, no, the US is not "first among equals" since China dwarfs the United States economically, while Russia neutralized most of US military capabilities by making systems which the United States simply can not and it is doubtful will be able to close ever-increasing military-technological gap with Russia both in enablers and weapons which shape modern geopolitics. No doubt, this year, yet another Captain Obvious "assessment", on Threats to the US no less, has been produced with an "intelligence insight" of such a profundity that one really begins to scratch the head.
If this is the "level" of "intelligence" assessments, I need to call on Mr. Lavrov.
Of course, no one should expect any public domain assessments even from the top notch analytical orgs to be perfect. One will always find inconsistencies and, sometimes, obvious half-truths, but in the American case it is an absolutely defining feature of exposing oneself as simply ignorant on the culture and intentions of those who the United States counts as enemies. American enemies are those who are better at things America thinks they cannot be. Well, that's exceptionalism for you. But the US National Intelligence Council, certainly, thinks that it is smarter than anybody else and does this:
Oh, boy, economics and technology are "identified" as "likely to shape the national security environment". In related news, water is wet, wind blows and the sky is blue. But never mind, these two factors have been decisive factors in anything for much longer than the United States exists, good that somebody noticed now. I will omit here commenting on important but grossly de-scientified in the West issue of environmental change and, correctly assuming, the level of wokeness and social and cultural insanity affecting ALL US institutions today, I will leave this important issue outside of this discussion. For now. So, here is this latest Global Trends 2040. The opening salvo is devastating in one of the four scenarios of the future:
I believe this scenario was written by the same people who shot CIA recruitment videos and people who graduated "economics" programs in Ivy League schools and know Modern Monetary Theory. Of course, you will not find anywhere in this assessment how to reindustrialize the United States and concentrate resources on real innovations, other than discovering new genders and fields of "study" such as Queer studies or Constructing the Grievance Industry. Of course after this wowser they go for the favorite term in the US military-intelligence-media complex: disruptions and disruptors, meaning anything that "undermines international order", that is disappearing US, primarily self-proclaimed, hegemony.
The world is fragmented into several economic and security blocs of varying size and strength, centered on the United States, China, the EU, Russia, and a few region-al powers, and focused on self-sufficiency, resiliency, and defense. Information flows within separate cyber-sovereign enclaves, supply chains are reoriented, and international trade is disrupted. Vulnerable developing countries are caught in the middle
Actually, "Vulnerable developing countries" in Eurasia will be doing just fine and will feel very safe from being bombed by "democratic", if not queer, stand-off weapons and have their regime changed. Being caught in the middle is not such a bad proposition after seeing how successful "democratization" by the US went in Iraq, Afghanistan and other places. But then they suddenly come to a sensible conclusion, surprise!
Material Power. Military capabilities and economic size will remain the foundation of state capacity and power projection, compel-ling other countries to take a state’s interests and policies into account. These two areas of power allow states to maintain their security and to amass resources that enable other elements of power.
In related news, water is wet, the sky is blue...well, you know the routine. And then comes the BANG!
Other major powers, including Russia, the EU, Japan, the United Kingdom, and potentially India, could have more maneuvering room to exercise influence during the next two decades, and they are likely to be consequential in shaping geopolitical and economic outcomes as well as evolving norms and rules.Russia is likely to remain a disruptive power for much or all of the next two decades even as its material capabilities decline relative to other major players. Russia’s advantages, including a sizeable conventional military, weapons of mass destruction, energy and mineral resources, an expansive geography, and a willingness to use force overseas, will enable it to continue playing the role of spoiler and power broker in the post-Soviet space, and at times farther afield. Moscow most likely will continue trying to amplify divisions in the West and to build relationships in Africa, across the Middle East, and elsewhere. Russia probably will look for economic opportunity and to establish a dominant military position in the Arc-tic as more countries step up their presence in the region. However, with a poor investment climate, high reliance on commodities with potentially volatile prices, and a small economy—projected to be approximately 2 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP) for the next two decades—Russia may struggle to project and maintain influence globally. President Vladimir Putin’s departure from power, either at the end of his current term in 2024 or later, could more quickly erode Russia’s geopolitical position, especially if internal instability ensues. Similarly, a decrease in Europe’s energy dependence on Russia, either through renewables or diversifying to other gas suppliers, would undercut the Kremlin’s revenue generation and overall capacity, especially if those decreases could not be offset with exports to customers in Asia.
My beef here is not with BS written about Russia--by now, there are no real professional Russoists in US "intelligence community" (speaking Russian doesn't make one a "specialist in Russia") and one should expect such idiocy, plus always consider a severe butt-hurt factor when speaking about Russia to American exceptionalists--they are still pissed off with Russia defeating Hitler, flying first to space, having better education system, superior weapons and military history and now fast closing the gap in terms of living standard. No, you would expect that. My beef is with the bunch of morons who consider the UK a "major power". Really? How, can anyone explain it to me? Country devoid of any serious natural resources, with economy consisting primarily of FIRE, with no independent aerospace industry capable out of own resources to produce a basic commercial let alone combat aircraft, having no space program, drowning in the cesspool of multiculturalism and insidious Islamization, having a PM who is a certified idiot and being on the verge of disintegration, with Scots having a different views on the UK altogether. And yes, UK has a lone operational destroyer and her two carriers deploy a terrifying weapon--F-35B which is a...well, flies not that well, to put it mildly.
But that doesn't prevent this "Intelligence Council" from publishing an absolutely risible, and traditionally wrong, yet another pack of BS which is filled with catch phrases and buzzwords of increasingly detached from the reality and grossly ideological American discourse in any serious professional field ranging from politics to war, to intelligence or the so called "diplomacy". If you wanted to see how decreasing intellect and professionalism manifest themselves in a society which does not produce anything but wet dreams--read this document. You cannot help them, that is how they were brought up--to be ignorant.
Larchmonter445 asked me to expound on the "operational" exercises of Russia's Pacific Fleet which started before the Geneva "summit" and I start with fresh Zvezda report (in Russian) on the exercise of...sinking a Carrier Battle Group. Pay attention that in this short video the firing solution for anti-shipping missiles is calculated at 422 kilometers which is a routine over-the-horizon launch for missiles of P-800 Oniks or 3M54 Kalibr variety and the location of the exercise, which is "in an area located 2.5 thousand miles (approximately 4.6 thousand kilometers) south-east of the Kuril Islands."
It is a little bit of a demonstration of the flag by a relatively modest size task force, which, nonetheless, packs a rather massive punch, plus good ol' combat training in the remote ocean zones is always a good idea. Considering the fact that Zircon (3M22) carrier, fully modernized Marshal Shaposhnikov, is in business at these maneuvers, one can start confidently calculate what size salvo Russia's Pacific Fleet will be able to get into the area when Admiral Nakhimov and "calibrized" Pacific pr. 949AM (Oscar IIs) such as Irkutsk, together with new Yasen-class SSGNs, starting from Novosibirsk, which is undergoing sea trials now, and follow-on of similar Krasnoyarsk, will join in. With the other two Yasens following in 2024 and 2027. All of them are carriers of 3M22 Zircons together with newest corvettes of pr. 20385 most of which are bound for the Pacific Fleet. Together with additional three pr. 22350 Admiral Gorshkov-class frigates. This is what will appear by 2025-2027, not to mention other forces.
So, as you can see, all this is a warm-up for for a much more aggressive Ocean-denial---> Ocean-control posture by Russian Navy in the Pacific, especially when Pacific Fleet's salvo will triple by 2025. There is also no doubt that such a fleet will make appearances in the Chinese ports as it has been done before and under the new circumstances all that becomes extremely significant. Especially considering a totally expected growth of the tempo of Russian-Chinese joint naval maneuvers.
Bang, today--another iteration by Tucker and Glenn Greewald of this simple idea, which so much has been written and talked about, especially by Michael Hudson, that "financial capitalism" and system it produces is basically a BS which not only does not produce anything but metastasizes into political instability both internally and abroad.
It is clear the United States is being demolished as an industrial country and, if to follow a rather convincing, albeit not perfect, theory that the United States is merely a vehicle for global finance then it inevitably leads us to a conclusion that the life of the United States as a useful economic vehicle is over and the demolition is in progress. This view, certainly, has its merits. I am sitting here with a bucket of pop-corn waiting to see the sequence of the largest cognitive dissonances in the camp of fanatic libertarians and laissez-faire enthusiasts, primarily from GOP--I do not count Democratic Party as sane political organization--who will have to now try to defend a real economy's demolition by the ideology which is in the foundation of their MO--making money, anyway they can. Again, let's recall that day in 2000.
You know, more dramatically than Russia declined in 2000s, than in 2010s, and now heading into 2020s this decline is especially noticeable. Moreover, 2020s decline is comparable to Russia's decline in 1240s, then Russia's disappearance after 1380, it also somewhat reminiscent of Russia's impending disintegration in 1605-1618, and it could certainly be reminiscent of Russia's absolute demise in 1812, not to speak of 1945. How do we know this? Very simple, a specialist in Russia's decline General Mark Milley, currently the Chairman JCS, said so in his interview to WSJ yesterday. But we all know that Russia is on the verge of a decline and disappearance for the last 1200 years, so--any minute now. Milley, however, having said that added that Russia is a Great Power and that it is because of the excellent armed forces. Now, I quote from Ria which quoted from WSJ, which is behind a paywall.
"Россия — великая держава. В этом нет сомнений из-за их возможностей. <…> Российские военные очень хороши, без вопросов" "У них очень боеспособная и очень профессиональная армия. Она относительно небольшая по сравнению с той, что была в советское время, но очень и очень способная".
Translation: Russia is a great power. There is no doubt about it because of her capabilities <...> Russian military people are very good, no questions about it. Russians have very combat capable and professional army. It is relatively small compared to the Soviet times, but is very very combat capable.
This illustrates my point I made yesterday when discussing Andrei Raevsky's article about NATO and EU "messages" and which I make non-stop for decades, that the only people left in the US who have a degree of global situational awareness are American military. They have to be. As Larchmonter445 observed correctly today, and I quote him:
I agree. The "messages" are not for US or West's political elites--those are morons with no integrity or principles, they are also ignorant on any serious military matter. These messages are for American professionals who understand and have a grasp of consequences and can articulate those to civilian ignoramuses who run disintegrating West. In the middle of a Russiagate bacchanalia in the last 4 years, in the midst of severe bouts of Russophrenia at the Capitol and in US media the only sober assessments were coming from US military, especially from a guy from DIA--his testimony stood out. Listen to former DIA Chief Lieutenant-General Vincent Stewart. This is how real professionals talk. No political BS, cold hard facts.
The last months of England's existence as a fully independent great power, able out of her own resources both to maintain her national existence and to wage war, passed away. By the third quarter of 1940 the volume of British exports (including munitions for the empire) was down 37% on 1935. By the turn of the year 1940-1941, the dark mid-winter of the Blitz, England's stock of gold and dollars was near exhaustion... For obvious reasons the advent of "lend-Lease" was represented as an act of unparalleled generosity. In fact, it was clearly to America's advantage that American weapons should be carried into battle by fighting men of England and Empire rather than the sons of American mothers. Even after United States entered the war in December 1941--and not then by her own volition--it was still clearly to her advantage that England should be enabled to wage the war on far greater scale than would have been possible on English resources alone.
The gunboats don’t appear in your economics textbooks. I bet your price theory didn’t have gun boats in them, or the crime sector. And probably they didn’t have debt in it either.
By waging this economic warfare against China to protect America monopolies, America is integrating China and Russia. And probably the leading Chinese nationalist in the world, the leading Russian nationalist, is Donald Trump. He’s saying, “Look boys, I know that you’re influenced by American neoliberals. I’m gonna help you. I believe that you should be independent. I’m gonna help you Chinese, Russians and Iranians to be independent. I’m going to keep pushing sanctions on agriculture to make sure that you’re able to feed yourself. I’m gonna push sanctions on technology, to make sure that you can defend yourself.” So he obviously is a Chinese and Russian agent, just like MSNBC says.
The move is significant as it shifts the premium that gas in Asia and Europe has historically commanded over U.S. prices and adds a hurdle to American LNG exporters looking to boost sales to those regions. Buyers of U.S. fuel have canceled at least 12 cargoes for June loading, and traders estimate that more than 20 shipments could have been canceled for the month.
Our dominance in the world is in the rear view, yet Trump and other pols refuse to get the message.
While the authors are quite critical of Trump’s foreign policy, they don’t pin the decline of the old order solely on him. They argue that hegemonic unraveling takes place when the hegemon loses its monopoly over patronage and “more states can compete when it comes to providing economic, security, diplomatic, and other goods.” The U.S. has been losing ground for the better part of the last 20 years, much of it unavoidable as other states grew wealthier and sought to wield greater influence. The authors make a persuasive case that the “exit” from hegemony is already taking place and has been for some time.
The coronavirus pandemic has exposed how misguided our priorities as a nation have been. There is now a chance to change course, but that will require our leaders to shift their thinking. U.S. hegemony is already on its way out; now Americans need to decide what our role in the world will look like afterwards. Warmed-over platitudes about “leadership” won’t suffice and throwing more money at the Pentagon is a dead end. The way forward is a strategy of retrenchment, restraint, and renewal.
