Ah, Olaf Scholz Got The Message.

Do I feel smug at this moment? Come on, I am just human with all my human flaws, can I allow myself  at least a brief moment of feeling good about myself and what I do? 

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Russian President Vladimir Putin prepared for his war on Ukraine for at least a year before inciting it, and predicted Putin is likely to be able to maintain a drawn-out offensive for a "long time." Scholz made the comments in a Thursday interview with CBS News "Face the Nation" moderator and chief foreign affairs correspondent Margaret Brennan at the NATO summit in Madrid. The war on Ukraine has now dragged on for more than four months, and Russia is using its firepower to make incremental gains. US intelligence estimates that Russia currently holds about 20% of the country, mostly in eastern Ukraine.  "When will Russia no longer have the ability to continue this fight? When will Putin run out of weapons, run out of funds? Or can this continue for years," Brennan asked Scholz.

No one really knows, Scholz replied, but Putin's lengthy planning suggests he's prepared for a sustained war effort. "He has — he is perhaps the leader of a very great country with a lot of people living there, with a lot of means, and he is really doing this brutal war with — and he prepared for it [for] very long," Scholz said. "I think the decision to- to do this war was taken one year before it started or possibly earlier because he prepared for it. And so, he will be able to continue with the war really a long time."

Let me clarify some things here. 

1. Olaf Scholz cannot be viewed as a good source of expertise on anything related to warfare, real economy and, especially so, in relation to Russia. He simply has zero qualifications, even when one considers his present post as Germany's Chancellor. What he gets are some reports from a few remaining real professionals in BND and Bundeswehr who told him, I am sure, from the get go, about REAL situation. As the unlucky fate of some Germany's top brass testifies, such as Admiral Shonbach's forced resignation, Scholz was getting more or less reliable forecasting from the very start of SMO. But...

2. Western "elites" are simply incapable to hear "bad news" on anything because most of them are petulant children with the maturity level of high schools teenagers. Enough to take a look at the "levels" of the US State Department or other people from Biden Admin who pretend to run the country. As the result of all that, once the stream of, mostly fake, "news" (a euphemism for propaganda) from Ukraine dried up, reality, including the most important one--on operational and strategic level--began to bite. It hurts, I know. 

But recall, that from the inception I warned about a complete delusion about Russia exercised in the West even by people who are supposed to know. Even deeply respected by me as a true, who he is undoubtedly, military professional and, most importantly, thinker is not free from some obvious misconceptions about Russia. Such as Early Warning ABM capabilities. But combined West miscalculated in the most important aspect of Russia--her massive real economic capability which, in turn, drives Russia's huge mobilization, both economic and military, potential. Only now this "message" begins to trickle UP in both Europe and even Washington D.C. I warned about the dangers of this miscalculations since the very inception of this blog and, of course, in here:

It is worth mentioning, that ANY, I repeat it, any intelligence or military institution in the West is not up to the task of understanding Russia's mobilization potential, which the last 4 months demonstrated perfectly. The FUBAR with delusional thinking regarding West's weapons' deliveries to Ukraine and fantastical thinking of civilian leadership of the West combined with crude and unprofessional propaganda from the US military "experts" demonstrate perfectly how incompetent they are. In the end, I warned, that using the framework of Western "economism" in application to Russia is an exercise in futility, because the same framework doesn't work on West's economy at large either. 

Beaten to death cliche ascribed to many people ranging from Churchill to Metternich that "Russia is never as strong as she looks; Russia is never as weak as she looks" is just that--a cliche. In reality, it is just that the West was never really good at understanding of military and economic potential translating into the kinetic action. Let's face it--ALL, without exception, people in the decision making circles in the US know little about the world outside and especially so about Russia--it is a systemic illness of the US body politic as a whole and it is extremely dangerous. I will repeat, again, Russia study field in the combined West and, especially in the US is an academic fraud, populated by pseudo-"academic" shysters with soft Ph.Ds and Russia "expert" community is laughable because of its sheer incompetence, based in low intellectual level. 

But, if even Olaf Scholz begins to if not see (I doubt he is that smart) to, at least, articulate some realities which really matter, then it shows a very carefully hidden from the brainwashed Western public, some major tectonic shifts at least in Europe. Europeans, I know some, are waking up to the reality that the US, namely its neocon mafia in charge of the US foreign policy, would like to see Europe burn in continental war against Russia, while the US will seat it out and then, as in WW II, will come in to claim its spoils. Neocons are one trick ponies and utterly militarily incompetent people, but even such a door mat and America's slap bitch as Scholz begins to recognize that it may end really bad for him personally (that's the main concern) and for the country which he and his government so passionately want to finish off as a nation. So, something is afoot and Scholz suddenly beginning to speak as a man who finally had his two-hour briefing on introductory level geopolitics--you know, geography, industries, military and shit like that--is a good indicator of this. So, in this case, it is a positive development. 

In related news, a neocon rag laments: 

Ukraine’s forces have received less training over the recent weeks, which impacts their capacity to operate some advanced weapons systems, magazine Foreign Policy (FP) reported on Friday, citing sources. Since the launch of Russia's military offensive in the neighboring country in late February, Ukraine has been constantly asking its Western partners to provide them with more heavy weapons and to do so as quickly as possible. However, as a senior US defense official told FP, “the drumbeat of faster, faster, faster” does not always work well because “the Ukrainians needed to have the training to be able to effectively use these systems.” Meanwhile, the Ukrainian officials cited by the FP, complained on the one hand about the “too slow” pace of Western aid but, on the other hand, admitted that “beyond training for the HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems) and Western artillery, military training for their troops has dipped in recent weeks, leaving them unable to operate more advanced systems.”

Well, no shit geniuses. Main explanation (among few others) is the fact that VSU losses are catastrophic and most capable and smartest have been simply killed. It is a Volkssturm phase for 404, and it is accelerating as I type this. But you see, if those who matter would have been learning in their respective programs something of value and really tried, they wouldn't have to deal with this severe cognitive dissonance and they would have chosen a much more constructive and realistic approach to Russia and we all wouldn't be witnessing what we witness today, not to mention listening (reading) to old fool Kissinger's definitions of victory or loss for Russia. How this artifact is still around and is taken seriously by anyone is a complete mystery to me, but then again--at this stage the West needs to "arrange" face saving measures and not get involved with nuclear exchange with Russia as many neocons want.

The Main Motif.

People constantly ask me, or express their desire to see Russia saying bye-bye to the West. I have news: Russia already said bye-bye to the West. It is a done deal, fait accompli, over with or however else you want to formulate this state of the affairs. Here is one such sign out of very many. 

БРЮССЕЛЬ, 9 фев – РИА Новости. Если предположить, что газопровод "Северный поток — 2" не будет введен в эксплуатацию, Россия найдет других покупателей на этот газ, заявил в интервью РИА Новости постоянный представитель России при Евросоюзе Владимир Чижов.

Translation: BRUSSELS, February 9 - RIA Novosti. Assuming that the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is not put into operation, Russia will find other buyers for this gas, Vladimir Chizhov, Russia's permanent representative to the European Union, said in an interview with RIA Novosti.

The idiots in Brussels and D.C. still cannot wrap their feeble brains around the fact that NS2 is about Europe, not Russia. Russia is fine without NS2 and she has all market she needs for her hydrocarbons in Asia. It is about how the United States will eat EU to prolong its own agony. Then Chizhov adds:

Russian energy company Gazprom is fulfilling its contracts and is under no obligation to increase supplies of natural gas to the EU, despite some politicians in Brussels accusing Moscow of using its exports as a weapon, Russia’s permanent representative to the bloc stated on Wednesday. Speaking to Moscow news agency RIA Novosti, Vladimir Chizhov explained that, since gas prices are on the rise, Gazprom’s European customers do not want to commit to buying more gas. If there is no demand, there will be no supply, he said.“Of course [Gazprom] is not obliged. Besides, it is already providing some extra supplies of ‘blue fuel’ to Europe, which is, apparently, still not as much as some would have preferred.”

Russia is not obliged to solve Europe's problems. There are contracts and that's it. Want more?  Get new contracts, like Hungary did. While signing new contracts Russia and Hungary signed a bunch of other mutually beneficial contracts across the whole spectrum of economic activity ranging from nuclear power stations to agriculture, to consumer goods to transportation. Soviet Union was a major market for legendary Hungarian-made Ikarus buses. Boy, a wave of sentimental nostalgia came over me, from the childhood: 

To adulthood:

Our favorite "Garmoshka" (Garmon) which transported hundreds of millions of passengers in USSR to and from. They are still beloved in Russia. You may counter may argument saying that doesn't the example of Hungary contradicts my statement that Russia bid adieu to Europe. Not in a slightest. Here is the explanation: 

The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) has released a new poll suggesting that the majority of people in countries like Germany, Poland, and Sweden say that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is “likely” before the end of the year. However, when asked if they wanted their country to be involved in “defending” Ukraine, only the Polish respondents were likely to agree. A majority of respondents polled in Poland, Romania, Sweden, Germany, Italy, and France believe an invasion of Ukraine is “highly” or “fairly” likely this year, with Polish and Romanian citizens fearing an invasion the most. Over 70% of respondents from Poland believe an invasion could happen, while over 60% of Romanian respondents hold the same belief. 

Implications of that are huge and they do show degree to which majority of European public is brainwashed and, by implication, views Russia as an aggressor. In other words, there is not a single impetus on the level of population to question the interpretations (a euphemism for Western media propaganda) of current events. Sure, people are not obliged to be specialists in psychological operations or analysis of reporting. So, this has to be taken merely as a given, most people are immersed in their daily lives and bread and butter issues and don't se any alternative to Western political "status quo". 

Here is Waldemar Herdt, former member of Bundestag, speaks to Vladimir Solovyov (sadly only in Russian) and admits that Germany is not a sovereign country and that German "elites" are overwhelmingly a product of the US "educational" (a euphemism for being brainwashed) programs and that Germany right now is in the split position. 

Make no mistake, I do sympathize with average Germans but it is what it is. Both poll and spineless German political "elite" WILL sell Germany to the United States and, as Biden said himself, NS2 will be eliminated. As Herdt admits in horror--that will be the end of Germany's chemical industry, which will be the end of Germany's manufacturing. This is precisely what the United States desires above all. Obviously, the most optimal outcome for the US would be a good scale European War in which Russia would destroy EU and the United States then, pretending to be the savior of the West, will make a shitload of money and save own declining economy by helping to "restore" Europe. 

As I said many times, most people in D.C. are one trick ponies and most of them do not understand modern warfare nor know the actual history of WW II. They still don't get a simple fact, that if the big war happens in Europe, D.C. will repeat the fate of Brussels. But then again, considering level of the American "elite education" it is not surprising. We can see some of its products in Europe and suicidal economic and cultural policies, which are also policies du jour in the United States. So, the decision by Russia's government to break off is totally justified. This is not to say that this whole process is without hiccups, including BS from CNN such as this:

Russian officials have expressed fears that an invasion of Ukraine could prove to be more difficult and costly than Russian President Vladimir Putin and other leaders realize, according to intelligence intercepted by the U.S., a CNN report states. CNN cited four people familiar with the intelligence in reporting on the fears within the Russian government. "In the assessments we see it is clear some people on the [Russian] defense side are not really understanding what the game plan is," one official said, according to CNN, speaking of the possible invasion. The official also noted that the defense personnel think "it's a very difficult game plan to stand up."

You can bet your ass on the fact that these CNN's "four people" are most likely a figment of imagination and their Russian sources are some BSers such as senile Ivashov. In the same time US media continue to quote such "specialists" (primarily from liberal globalist Moscow "think tanks") and rumor-gatherers from Moscow foreign policy beau monde such as Andrei Kortunov from globalist RIAC. 

Yet two Moscow-based analysts who specialise in deciphering the signals from the Kremlin said Putin's late-night comments after hours of talks with French President Emmanuel Macron suggested that he was serious about negotiating. "Of course he sticks to his positions but I've not got the impression that he's in the mood for escalation," said Andrey Kortunov, head of the Russian International Affairs Council. "Probably you wouldn't speak to an opponent for seven hours if you wanted just to lecture him and close the file."

Kortunov is a pure Soros creature who was in charge of Russia's "education and development" department in Soros' Open Society fund in Russia. So, you get the idea. As for Lukyanov--a typical MGIMO-produced journo who rubs shoulders with "big shots" and elbows in already mentioned by me Moscow's primarily globalist foreign policy beau monde which is very big on credentialism but very low on actual knowledge of the outside world and what forms geopolitical reality. It is the same cabal where demagogues like Karaganov, Timofeev (of Valdai fame) and others (RT loves to invite these "experts" who have no clue about practical geopolitics) suck on a fat teat  of grants and sinecures in conducting some "research", which anyone with with IQ above room temperature can do in half the time these many offsprings of yet another globalist madrasa, VShE, do and get more accurate and more competent forecasts. But then again, there is a reason why Western propaganda loves to speak to those "experts". 

But whatever the case with hysteria in modern West, including the United States, regarding Russia "invasion", the problem raised by Moscow in ultimatum remains: it is not just about 404, it is about NATO. At this stage Washington not only non-agreement capable, there are nobody to talk to in it, including the main slave of US war-mongering MSM, US Congress which creates the feedback loop with US media in calling for measures which, actually, are going to hit (already did) both EU but, remarkably, will deteriorate already tenuous Washington's position even more. Let's face it, Washington's "strategy" (quotation marks are intentional--they don't know what real strategy is in D.C.) of splitting Russia from China failed miserably, it accelerated the emergence of Russian-Chinese alliance whose economic and military capabilities dwarf those of the United States and relegated EU to a passive victim, whose consumption still will not resolve US problems. Italians nailed it in La Stampa. 

The tactical victory of Evromajdan thus produced a strategic nightmare: the China-Russia duo is here to stay. And the Pentagon’s equations include the risk of finding themselves fighting a war on two fronts, the Indo-Pacific and the European. All this for having won in Kiev, an objective neither central nor urgent in the world view of the American apparatuses. So much so that Biden has signaled in every way that he is unwilling to wage a war for Ukraine against Russia. Washington's uncertainties in the Ukrainian theater stem from a miscalculation of Moscow's intentions and capabilities. Quite normal for the superpower, used to seeking victory and only then to draw the consequences. What has prevented her from winning a real war since 1945 while leading her to bleed into unlikely minor theaters. Therefore to lose credibility, the most precious asset of any power. To correct this negative trajectory and avoid an unwanted but nonetheless disastrous war, Washington tries to get out of the Ukrainian trap that Moscow has set for it. This entails recognizing Russia's role and rank by involving it in an all-out negotiation on pan-European security arrangements. To undermine the basis of her engagement with China in the only possible way: by showing her that she does not need it. The alternative is to slip into a dead end tunnel of which we Europeans would be the first victims, starting with the next barrage of sanctions and counter-sanctions. All the more reason why Rome also makes her voice heard. Nothing is lost yet.   

This is a machine translation, but give Italians credit where the credit is due, except, of course, for mentioning a two-front war--the United States is incapable to fight a war in a single theater against first rate power. But in general, Italians got strategy right, problem, of course, that in the last 30 years American machine of producing "elites" produced nothing but incompetent, ignorant, badly educated narcissists across the full spectrum of national activities, from economics, to military, to education, who have zero skills in governing such country as the United States, or, for that matter, even running 7-11 convenience store. They are hysterical because they do not want to face the facts which, they correctly feel it, will blow their world view up completely. Because in the end, they understand deep down that they are losers and always were--this is not an easy way to encounter reality. 

In related news, it seems that some sort of Russia-Belarus genuine integration process has started and in the mid-to-long term that also means a much closer integration between Russian and Belarus armed forces. I know, adding another 60,000+ of well equipped and well trained personnel doesn't sound that good for many in NATO. Plus with Belarus getting ready to receive own S-400s and MiG-31Ks with hypersonic Kinzhals are now flying over Kaliningrad:

The message is clear. Not to forget, of course, the Baltic Fleet whose main base is in Baltiisk already received first 4 latest SU-30SM2 which are very advanced versions of venerable SU-30 and it is not just fully netcentric but is capable to operate swarms of UAV by forming its own network with them. I think it is just a warm up before Russia (after Beijing Olympic Games close) begins to "take measures of military-technical character" due to the West's inability to give a coherent and favorable response to Russia's ultimatum. But I warned about it from the start.   

Yeah, Yeah, I Know, Beaten To Death...

...topic and many people spoke about US "elites" generally having no clue about the world outside and, in case of Russia, having a deliberate BS narratives which, in addition, exacerbate institutional ignorance in the West in general, and US in particular. Among the latest on ignorance of Russia is by Tarik Amar in RT. 

Ignorance of Russia among Western elites is dangerous. A belligerent new intervention reveals just how far removed from reality many Western hawks are 

But truth is, former Sweden's PM Karl Bildt is known in Russia as a certified moron, same as former US Ambassador Michael McFaul, so there is very little use in discussing people who have serious learning disabilities and are uncultured, to boot. By being uncultured I, of course, do not mean that they lack superficial refinement, they don't, I am sure they know many fine Scotches and love to eat in reputable restaurants. No, by being cultured I mean people with moral principles and serious understanding of their craft. 

But the moment Amar makes his argument about general Western ignorance of Russia (not to mention a deliberate malicious lies), bang--one of the "Russia scholars" rears his ugly mind on Yahoo news and, first, bloviates on economic matters of Russia which he cannot possibly understand and then comes up with this wowser:

Courageous Navalny personifies limited but growing opposition to the Putin regime, which after two decades is now increasingly repressive. Management of the latest press conference reflects this harshness. In the past, media applied for accreditation. This time, by contrast, the Kremlin selected those who could attend. Approximately five hundred domestic and international press representatives participated. Among publications excluded was “Novaya Gazeta.” Managing Editor Dmitry Muratov just received the Nobel Peace Prize. Fellow journalist Maria Ressa of the Philippines also got the prestigious award. Both demonstrate great courage in opposing repression, resisting intimidation, thereby risking their lives and their careers. Media understandably focus on Ukraine, where Russia’s ominous military buildup continues. Putin heatedly asserted NATO is the provocateur, which is false.

Hm, let's see who the author of this drivel is. His name is Arthur I. Cyr. And as you may have guessed it already he is a... political "scientist".

Professor Cyr is a board member of the Japan America Society of Chicago, Real Racine, and the Racine YMCA Youth Leadership Program. He is a Senior Fellow of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, member of the Century Association and the Council on Foreign Relations, the Inter-University Seminar on Armed Forces and Society, the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, and the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). Dr. Cyr served in the U.S. Army reserves and on active duty as an officer in military intelligence. He is a 1966 graduate of UCLA and received a Ph.D. with distinction in political science from Harvard University in 1971. At Harvard, he was a Frank Knox fellow in England, an NDEA Title IV fellow, and a teaching fellow. 

What is most aggravating here is that this guy served in "intelligence" and was involved with Chatam House, which explains why the guy spews utter BS--West's situational awareness of Russia is not just zero, it is genuinely negative due to the fallacy of the whole educational and analytical framework in the combined West which time after time provided astounding records of failure. It is especially true of UK-based "think-tanks" which still cannot overcome their sorrow of finding UK a lapdog of the United States and a country whose military and economic capabilities are those of a second-rate power, which is being kept in this league due to association with the US. Judging by the British "elites" the degeneracy is now a defining trait there. But, hey, at least English Premier League is still really good.  

Dude, that's the Siemens hat you are wearing.

The only competencies these people have are those of "analysts" of apparatchiks' games inside the swamp of America's political discourse and they still cannot learn the difference between policies and PR politicking which passes for policies. And Mr. Cyr by repeating same beaten to death tropes proves without a shadow of a doubt that political science, same as Western economism are scientifically fraudulent fields entirely unfit for tackling the issues of the modern era and the proof is in the pudding: since NO Western think-tank or member of "academe" could foresee a military and economic (not to speak of cultural and social) calamity which befell the Western civilization. Their failure is so stunning in its scale and scope that by now one has to question if these people, among which is Mr. Arthur I. Cyr are competent enough to mow the lawn let alone offer their utterly ignorant opinions on the subject they have no clue about.  In reality, they never did--I should know, I was there, while holding a very serious clearance. They didn't, simple as that. So, it is not me but Mr. Cyr who arrives to sheer idiocy as his conclusion:

Realism should guide policy, emphasizing the essential role of nation-states, and focus on national interests. A source of basic U.S. strength is our market economy, increasingly the way of the world. Russia today remains influential but isolated.

I once expressed myself on American "realists".  Come to think about it, this whole blog is about American "realists". And how there is very little realism in them.