... terrorist act against Crimean Bridge. The driver was unaware of the "content" of his truck, hence relatively mild apprehension by FSB. In fact, they saved his life--he will be very grateful after the explanation of what 404 terrorists put into his truck. 130 kilograms of high explosives.
Per media circus in the West re: Trump-Putin meeting. Just unplug yourself, otherwise you will end up confused. Their tool kit is primitive as are people who control it, but it is loud.
... to those who still think that ATACMS decide anything. I totally get where Scott comes from in his apprehension about Crimean Bridge safety but let's step back and think for a minute purely tactically, considering the fact that.
1. ATACMS have been in use in SMO for a while now. Here is one example of many, this is from October 25, 2023.
Translation: “Over the past 24 hours, two US-made ATACMS operational-tactical missiles were intercepted,” the publication says. In addition, during the day, an S-200 anti-aircraft missile, two HARM anti-radar missiles and two US-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems were intercepted. Previously, the military department did not report the interception of ATACMS missiles that the Ukrainian Armed Forces received from the Pentagon.
So, as you can see, those, including its longest range (300 km) version, are being successfully intercepted by Russian AD and militarily make no difference whatsoever on the theater of operations, EVEN if they are able to achieve one or two "leakers".
2. "Leaker" is, of course, the missile or projectile which gets through. Considering well articulated overall effectiveness of Russian Air Defense of around 95%, as stated by no other than Mr. Putin himself (In Russian), which is very close to reality because all data points towards this astonishing effectiveness, we can easily assume that in order to get even two "leakers" (most likely through combined heterogeneous salvo--Scalps/Stormshadows, ATACMS, maybe even USVs et al), in air they will need:
2/5 = n/100
n=40 missiles.
They will need 40 missile salvo to get two leakers to the Crimean Bridge. Let's turn our civil engineering and operational minds on.
3. Crimean Bridge is not just the bridge--it is THE longest bridge in Europe (19 kilometers), it is also the classic Linear Target which is IMPOSSIBLE to completely destroy other than maybe one or two flights of it. The juiciest of those being its main flight with the length of 235 meters.
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4. Here comes this issue: can 404, having real time ISR from the US, actually collect 40 missile salvo? Here is a rough range of ATACMS and where it can be theoretically pre-deployed for a theoretical salvo:
So, are "leakers" possible? Absolutely. Will they change anything? Nope. The outcome is clear and now Khohol recognized that they will actually get something around $8 billion in... loans, not those $61 billion which go to Pentagon for replenishing stocks, filling pockets of lobbyists from MIC and continuing to finance propaganda about "the finest fighting force in history". They only know how to fight PR wars. Keep this in mind, including the fact that the Bridge is well defended.
Yes, Germans (not all) hate Russian guts and whatever is left of Bundeswehr is dreaming about "giving it to them, damn Russische swine".
But what RT reported is pretty standard military mambo-jumbo which everybody discusses. I am 146% positive Russian military professionals discuss how to sink a carrier or two or how to drop a number of critical infrastructure objects in EU and USA. What is peculiar, however, is the intensity of insanity which struck all those NATO military "professionals", who are facing a disintegration of Ukie front and all 12 Stormshadows which have been launched at the bridge today have been shot down. I guess, Russians may consider blowing the shit out of some UK or French infrastructure. France now wants to officially send its "special forces" to 404. Russia may officially sink some of French frigates, I guess, and kill those "special forces", of course. Not that Russia will do it for the first time. All signs from the West of being cornered, hence hysterical statements.
... when speaking to ABC:
It is precisely because of that the US and UK are involved in the terrorist activity in Russia. Terrorism is a weapon of the weak. So, the saga with Crimean Bridge continues, US stooges from Kiev killed two civilian people and left a little girl an orphan. The span of the bridge will be fast repaired and railroad traffic has already resumed.
Meanwhile scumbags from UN squeal:
So, what did they expect? In the end, this BS about "UN brokered" something has to stop. UN is a useless organization which today is nothing more than a platform for PR activity, it cannot broker shit without big honchos agreeing on something. This cabal of sinecure abusers in UN should be dispersed and present UN shut down as a seat of the corruption. The UN Charter should remain and it could be considered in the new global power arrangement. Consequently, the UN HQs should be moved to some country other than US. How about Hungary? What about Mongolia? I heard Ulaanbaatar is lovely in Winter. I mean it.
So, here we go again with PR activity on part of NATO and its stooges in Kiev which changes absolutely nothing in terms of outcome, and Kiev may expect some visits from unidentified Russian flying objects soon. Medvedev today stated what is needed to be stated and I stress it non-stop--the real war crimes tribunal is coming (it is in the works as I speak) and some interesting dynamics of coming indictments in relation to NATO officials and media whores is expected.
... show it to Colonel Donnelly and MI-6. OK, to Ben Wallace too.
... for all America's monstrous problems in economy, in government and military, the UK and its premier military institution Military Academy in Sandhurst didn't produce a competent military thinker and commander since esteemed Sir Mike Jackson retired. US still remains grossly declining but superpower and can still theoretically deploy (under ideal, fantastic that is, conditions) a sizeable force to fight some smaller country. British Army, meanwhile, is a joke. All British ground forces can do is to deploy one fully combat ready brigade, maybe two. It is about two weeks worth of fighting similar to SMO's intensity for these two brigades to be wiped out. So, what's left for Britain? Right--terrorist, murder, diversionary and pseudo intelligence activity, because the rest is beyond British economic and military capabilities. And that drives many Sandhurst types completely nuts--they still think about the Empire on which the sun never sets. Not surprising, with such "historians" as late John Keegan and his student Anthony Beavor (a graduate of Sandhurst), among others, history and large scale combined arms operations are not British forte--too small and too insignificant. So...
Mr. Lugovoy, recall the guy who allegedly "killed" Mr. Litvinenko, who, obviously was "removed" (hack job, as usual) by MI-6 people, today discloses (obviously from a blessing of his former organization, aka KGB-FSB) that British were directly involved in Crimean Bridge sabotage and now the names are being stated.
Translation: Former intelligence officer of the United Kingdom Christopher Nigel Donnelly, who is now an adviser to Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, may be involved in the terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge. State Duma deputy Andrei Lugovoy (LDPR) writes about this in his Telegram channel, who sent a request to Russian Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov with a request to check Donnelly's activities for involvement in the terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge. “There is a clear British trace in the terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge. A carefully thought-out plan of a terrorist operation, multi-movement and coordination - all point to the involvement of Western intelligence agencies acting on the orders of the British government, ”the parliamentarian points out.
Use GOOGLE to translate the whole piece with juicy details of Mr. Donnelly's so called "intelligence" and teaching career (in Sandhurst, naturally) with specialization in... Russia, and you will understand that with "specialists" like that UK doesn't need any enemies because it is being run by sore losers who still cannot reconcile themselves to the fact of UK being inconsequential in any economic or military aspect of civilization. US is, for now. But why, you may ask, this is so significant? Simple: once Russian judicial system designates Donnelly and his MI-6 and UK MoD buddies as terrorists, which is most likely, because Lugovoy obviously acts as more than just Member of State Duma but on behalf of FSB too, Mr. Donnelly better do some plastic surgery and remain in UK, because he will become hunted by people who know much more than just the art of killing the Skripal's cat or hack job of poisoning Litvinenko. That is the significance of all that and, if you followed the news, UK was getting black marks from Russia as of lately non-stop. UK is disposable, US is not, but London, evidently, still doesn't understand that it is a pip-squeak in a larger scheme of things.
Speaking of which:
So, how much London's banking, audit and insurance "complex" is worth? Pretty much worthless in the new geopolitical reality. Again, the tragedy of the combined West, I repeat, is in the fact that it long ago lost the touch with the reality and cannot properly size itself up. It is not as "big" as it always thought. In fact, it is dramatically smaller in the larger scheme of things and, in a metaphysical sense, Russia's war with it is about cutting it to size, in which UK's role is that of a regional European island who will do as told. I think Colonel Donnelly is about to learn about it. Somebody will certainly write to him and it is not going to be from UK military (intel) pension fund.
In conclusion:
You see, Russia can also do lawyering. This is your primer for Tuesday.
... but UK long ago turned into political, economic and military circus and the fact that Liz Truss lasted only 44 days changes absolutely nothing because reserves of clowns in UK are, obviously, limitless. By far the more important news than Liz Truss' tenure was this:
You cannot cure terminal illness, the only thing possible is a palliative therapy, meaning shooting copious amounts of hard drugs into the patient to relieve pain and suffering before death. I am, in general, not very optimistic about Europe and Larry's posting yesterday the "travel report" from Phil Giraldi reinforced my position. The crisis is systemic and affects every single facet of modern combined West no matter what actions completely cornered Western "elites" take to save themselves.
My friend Mike Krupa sent me the link to today's excellent piece by Douglas Macgregor in TAC. He notes:
What Macgregor describes here is incompetence. It is not a bug but a feature of which I write non-stop for a decade, at least. They ARE that ignorant, they ARE that stupid, and, yes, they ARE that incompetent and a massive body of empirical evidence supports these assertions. But that is what defines a systemic crisis. Read the whole piece, it is worth it, not to mention the fact that I applaud Macgregor's description of Kissinger's "strategy" in Vietnam--a recurring story for Washington. And Macgregor concludes it with what I warned for 8 years now, when stated in late 2014-early 2015 that the US has sustained a massive defeat.
As long as Washington delivers cash, military assistance, and equipment to Ukraine, Kiev will fight its unwinnable war, and Washington’s ruling political class will profit from the transfer of cash to the Pentagon and the U.S. Defense Industrial Base. But Washington, its NATO allies, and Ukrainians will gain nothing of strategic value, while Russia is likely to grow stronger. That is a development Washington will regret.
Well, Russia is growing stronger every day and no volume of tactical minutiae can hide anymore the fact of West's collapse and it being written off. Even this little detail tells us something:
He is right, in a larger sense, because it was ordered by British and this is the extent of modern British military "power"--sabotage, false flags, propaganda and things of this nature. Saying that, I do not offer my personal opinion--it is a recurring theme in Russian media based on high-positioned sources in Russian government that Crimean Bridge sabotage had all hallmarks of British involvement. In the same time--what's new? Zelensky is panicking. So, when London cries that:
They should remember that the next time some S-400 AD complex in Crimea may have also some technical malfunction and some missiles may accidentally shoot down RAF planes "patrolling" over the Black Sea, which is about 1,700 miles from Albion.
In related news, the pain dial is being turned closer and closer to 11.
For the first time since Russia invaded, Ukraine is facing large-scale nationwide disruptions to electricity and rolling blackouts from extensive damage to the country’s power infrastructure from Russian missile attacks this month. Ukrainian officials have sought to restrict supply to allow energy companies to repair power facilities that have been pounded by Russian air strikes. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has urged people to use as little electricity as possible from 7 a.m. to 11 p.m. and prepare for temporary blackouts if this was not done. Russian attacks have knocked out 30% of the country's power plants, causing massive blackouts. The new development comes just weeks after Russia and Belarus announced the formation of a new joint force, with the Ukrainian army seeing rising military threats from the north.
Nah, nothing to see here, Russia is losing and VSU is about to take Moscow. Any British Prime-minister will tell you that. Ah, wait...
A classic diversionary (sabotage) act against linear target is blowing up the rail. Immediately note to yourself--rails are blown not for the sake of demolishing the railway, but for the sake of derailing passing train. Derailing the train is the end with railway damage being merely means. For a simple reason--you can repair railway relatively fast, sometimes within a few days, if not hours. The same applies to the bridges such as Crimean Bridge. One can take out one or two spans but one cannot blow up all 19 kilometers (12 miles) of this bridge. And that means that being linear is your greatest advantage. You can blow up 100 meters of a railway, but you cannot blow up 7,000 kilometers of TranSib.
Sabotage at the Crimean Bridge is a classic example of a difficulty the terrorist-sabotage groups face when trying to disable a linear target. As you all know, the traffic over the bridge is already largely restored, including car traffic using remaining lanes, while railroad is fine and continues to operate, which is important for accumulation of the forces in Crimea, including for future operations with the re-deployment through Kherson region. Even for the PR reasons, Kiev, as always, didn't achieve anything of substance. The fact that WaPo--this warmongering lying sack of shit pretending to be a legitimate media--printed "opinion" of some, obviously anonymous, official that it was an SBU "operation" tells one something. Washington directly points out to Kiev as a culprit, despite Kiev not officially admitting it.
Well, here is Zakharova today:
Translation:
The US Defense Department does not believe that a Russian nuclear strike is imminent, several Pentagon officials told journalists this week. Washington still treats Moscow’s supposed threats “very seriously,” they added. “We don’t assess that President Putin has made a decision to use nuclear weapons at this time,” the Pentagon’s press secretary, Brigadier General Patrick Ryder, told journalists at a briefing on Thursday. He spoke after US President Joe Biden warned that the risk of a nuclear conflict is at the highest level since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. For now, the US does not possess any information that would warrant a change in its “strategic deterrence posture,” Ryder said, adding that Washington will continue to closely monitor the situation, as it takes Russia’s threats “very seriously.” On Friday, another Pentagon spokesman, J. Todd Breasseale, told Politico that the US still does not see any indication that Russia is preparing for a nuclear strike. “To be clear: we have not seen any reason to adjust our own strategic nuclear posture nor do we have indications that Russia is preparing to imminently use nuclear weapons,” he said.
As I am on record ad nauseam--for the the West SMO is mostly about PR, because combined West and its "leader" have no resources to fight a real conventional war with Russia. Hence, as Zakharova stated, the flouncing about, as if being in a feverish delirium. The US need a deal with Russia, but Medvedev was quite explicit about it--the deal will be primarily about unconditional surrender in economic war. As per SMO, as was expected--the "front" was stabilized and VSU are throwing last reserves at Russia and everyone who has the IQ above room temperature knows now what is coming. The only thing Kiev has left at its disposal are PR acts like sabotage of the Bridge or, which is fully expected, terrorist acts against civilians deep into Russia proper and infrastructure objects, such as metro, public transport, energy control centers among many other, are the targets for Washington and London who use their Kiev stooges to provide for plausible deniability. But, as it is a strategic truism--terrorism is the weapon of the weak. When considering psychopaths running modern West this is what you would expect. After all, the only thing Western militaries excelled in the last 30 years is to kill civilians and blow civilian infrastructure, and the pattern is recognizable immediately.
Bernhard of MoA did a good write-up on Clausewitz and Kool Aid where he absolutely justifiably points out... well, the Kool Aid many of those military "experts" in the West are drinking.
Read the whole thing, and keep in mind that from the get go numbers and ratios US and UK military "experts" from establishment media to all kinds of fraudulent neocon think-tanks such as ISW "used" (meaning, made up) have been a complete BS. Made up numbers of force correlations and losses which created a completely false narrative and picture of SMO. Now the time of reckoning has come and I will lie if I say that I don't enjoy this massive egg on faces of Petraeus, Keane and others, who are going now through a profoundly painful phase of a butt-hurt when facing reality, especially from the fact of parading themselves as not military professionals but media buffoons. Speaking of which.
Another "product" of America's "military thought" is having an excruciating date with reality and unable to contain himself begins to fantasize about real war. I get it, he was the USAF big honcho and even SACUER, but something tells me that in Philip Breedlove we have not just acute case of Russophobia but a serious lack of grasp of how modern wars are conducted.
Somebody, please, give Mr. Breedlove a hint, politely, not in a forceful manner, to take a look at the map and at the capabilities of Harpoon anti-shipping missiles. Being a former pilot himself, it is only natural for him to think about combat aviation to face such enemy as... Taliban or other weddings and civilian gatherings which USAF was bombing to smithereens for the last 20 years not facing any air defense systems, let alone serious enemy air forces. So, when he suggests to "attack" Crimean Bridge by Harpoons, he has to ask himself a question on HOW such an operation would look like. Will the attack be carried out by Ukie Air Force, or, rather, what's left of it? Will they want to meet Mr. Su-35 or Mr. MiG-31BM (in Russian) or such gentlemen as S-400, S-300V4 and S1 Pantsir which are present in industrial quantities inside Crimea and around Crimean Bridge? Evidently this idea never visited Breedlove. Including this teeny-weeny detail, the problem really, on how to integrate AGM-84 Harpoon with old Soviet Su-27s and MiG-29s
Or, maybe, Breedlove thinks about somehow sticking those Harpoons on some Ukie fishing boat and secretly moving it into the launch position in the middle of the Black Sea and hope and pray that the targeting provided by S-3 Sentry from international airspace will succeed in guiding those few (what 2-3?) Harpoons towards Crimean Bridge? Good luck fooling Russia's Black Sea Fleet and, again, Air Defense. But maybe, one tries to conclude, Mr. Breedlove thinks about launching Harpoons from some truck from Ukie controlled territory? Possible? Sure. There is one teeny-weeny issue here, though. The maximum range of Harpoon is around 220 kilometers--so good luck finding the territory from which such a salvo can reach Crimean Bridge. FYI--the distance between Ukie-controlled Nikolaev (for how long?) and the bridge is 390 kilometers--good luck reaching it. And I don't even start here any discussion on the issue of what "linear targets" are and what it will take, what salvo--remember, наряд сил, the number of Harpoons--of 200 kilogram warheads, to even take the section of the bridge out for a short period of time?
Mr. Breedlove, certainly, graduated Air Command and Staff College, I am 100% positive that they taught there such issues as probabilities, "leakers", required force and operational planning, based on good grasp of own and enemy's capabilities, especially in terms of opposing air force and air defense. I am sure they teach that there. But somehow, as many other US top brass, Philip Breedlove decided to drink (or maybe excrete?) a Kool Aid and continue to embarrass not only himself but the whole America's top brass which has an astounding record of military failure, incompetence and BSing in the last 20 years, which is beginning to culminate in a much worse outcome than Afghanistan 1.0.
As some sources (German Welt) report, the US and Europe are in secret negotiations trying to find a diplomatic resolution and to stop SMO (in Russian). Good luck with that--too little, too late. As in that famous Russian anecdote about two bear hunters. One of them finds the bear and shouts to his buddy:"Hey, I caught the bear!" His buddy responds:"Then, bring him here." The response is:"I can't, he doesn't let me." In related news:
Really? Breach of decorum? His comment was spot on and funny, because it was true. But what about Philip Breedlove, who suggests to bomb the object of civilian infrastructure (not to mention his ignorance of alternative through Kherson) and parades himself as a buffoon? I though that qualifies. But then again, we live in a strange world in which the combined West is run by petulant teenagers, who long ago lost any connection to strategic, operational and tactical reality and there is no way they can restore this contact.
