... looks like I will be doing video tomorrow too...
Alex and Alexander give an excellent talk (from Athens) on Turkey and Russia.
Russia is not asking.
In fact, by analogy with RUSI's rather grossly delayed (by many years) report The Return of Industrial Warfare, it is about freaking time one compiled a similar report but titled The Return of Real Economy. Ah, wait, I already did, wink, wink. In real life all those stocks' "values", "capitalization" indices, or GDP fake numbers mean jack shit. Only the ability to produce and properly distribute tangible products ranging from energy, to food, to machines, to essential services matter in order to sustain societies and allow for development and social cohesion. The combined West suddenly, however late, begins to learn about those very simple and self-evident things.
Per Gonzalo Lira's yesterday hypothesis that Zelensky's day may be numbered.
The Russian Ministry of Defense has confirmed striking targets in the major Ukrainian port of Odessa on Saturday, revealing that its missiles hit military infrastructure and arms stockpiles. “In the seaport of Odessa, on the territory of a shipyard, a docked Ukrainian warship and a warehouse of Harpoon anti-ship missiles, supplied by the US to the Kiev regime, have been destroyed by sea-based high-precision long-range missiles,” the ministry said on Sunday. The attack also crippled a repair facility where vessels of the Ukrainian navy have been fixed, it added. The strike on the target in Odessa, which is a major trade hub in the southwest of Ukraine, came a day after the signing of a UN-brokered deal to unblock grain exports from Ukrainian ports.
But, as I said, read Bernhard's write up on the matter and why there is very little protestation even in the US on this matter. Moreover, I am smiling when reading news of Russian and Turkish navies (in Russian) operating together while escorting grain carriers from Odessa, with Black Sea Fleet also being responsible for de-mining of the area. What a crazy time we are living in, who would have thought)). Here is your primer for Sunday.
That is a shocker..., not really. I totally expected that from Turkey but:
Translation: BRICS is waiting for new members: in addition to Argentina and Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt are also preparing to submit applications for membership in the organization. This was stated to Izvestiya by a high-ranking source who was aware of the progress of the process. According to him, the Crown Prince of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) Mohammed bin Salman "is serious about joining the BRICS". The interlocutor specified that this issue was also raised during the visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Riyadh on June 1-2. — Russia supported the desire of Saudi Arabia to join the organization. In addition to the KSA, Turkey and Egypt also showed interest in the BRICS, they have been studying the possibility of joining for several years. But at the summit in Beijing, the issue of their entry was not discussed, but the membership of the KSA was discussed seriously. Members of the association are looking for a diplomatic solution, - said an informed source.
In fact, the name of one of the sources is known, she is Purnima Anand, the head of BRICS International Forum. So, there you go. Turkey, obviously, looks as a fit for BRICS, but Saudis joining BRICS--that is something else altogether and that is a sentence to what passes in the US for "diplomacy". So, this all comes against the background of this event:
This is not posturing at all, though. Because Saudi permanent, if not paranoid, fear is... Iran. And the security "guarantees" which the US allegedly provided for KSA lost a lot of their value. Not least through Iran demonstrating that they are ballsy people in 2020, after General Soleimani's assassination. And now Iran is on the fast track to BRICS and much closer ties to Russia. Saudis are not complete idiots, they watch TV and have their own sources of information. They surely saw Russian operations in Syria and see SMO in real time, they also see what the US is trying "to accomplish" both on the oil market and how it destroys itself and, even more so, Europe. What is always appreciated in the Middle East is resolve and power. Did you see Joe Biden recently, or behavior of Jake Sullivan or Tony Blinken? If you think that it is all a projection of confidence and power, you live in the alternative reality.
As I already stated not for once, the only things Western "elites" are good at is PR and killing defenseless. West's resource base is shrinking dramatically. And while some Turkish analysts think that joining BRICS is not the best time now because of Turkey's economic issues, this might be precisely the reason why some in Turkey are preparing applications for BRICS. Larry, actually, ads to the case of BRICS and how it is viewed in other parts of the world by means of demolishing yet another NYT propaganda piece:
Larry uses a very effective math and logic when concludes:
The real question that Schmitt and Barnes should have asked, how long can US officials continue to bullshit themselves and pour expensive weapon systems into a rat hole? The speed of Russia’s advance appears to be accelerating. There are reports today that Russian forces are entering the outskirts of Seversk, one of the key strong points of the new Ukrainian defensive line. If true, the Russians are likely to achieve a strategic breakthrough in the Donetsk. What the gullible reporters and the morons who staff the CIA and DIA fail to comprehend is that Russia’s tactic of systematically destroying the air, armor and artillery assets over the past three months appears to have achieved Clausewitz’s culminating point–i.e., the point at which a military force is no longer able to perform its operations.
Read the whole thing at Larry's blog.
How desperate one should be:
Turkey’s Russian Missiles Could Defend Ukraine. A way to solve the dispute between Washington and Ankara and do poetic justice in the process.
So, this might explain the level of "expertise" in the US "intelligence community" and also explain why the US cannot win its wars. I am sure Mr. Kolbe heard about OODA Loop and about situational awareness, after all he was in CIA and they train them to be "aware", right? One can only hope. In related news, Mr. Kolbe should take a basic course in the Air Defense, what it is and how it evolved over the years. Basic course in operations and physics would be nice too. Nah, I am being facetious.
P.S. You can listen to much of Kolbe's delirium for free--the player is above the article.
First point is a squealing of Turkish assets once their balls are placed in the vice of real geopolitics and real military power. As Azeri news agency Haqqin (Time) reports:
Translation: The chairman of the Turan party, Jahandar Bayoglu, called for the removal of all pro-Russian officials from power in Azerbaijan. According to him, the country should take this step in order to protect itself from external influences. The politician stressed that it is necessary to take control and remove from the leadership of all pro-Russian officials, deputies and heads of public organizations. The party chairman called on the head of state to dissolve the Milli Mejlis and start new socio-economic reforms. Bayoglu believes that if the country's leadership does not take these decisive steps, then the events that are taking place in Kazakhstan may repeat in Azerbaijan. He added that pro-Russian forces have infiltrated the structures of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the State Security Service and the Ministry of Defense. The politician also called for the completion of the transition of the Azerbaijani army to the model of the Turkish army as soon as possible.
Aw, how cute)) I have news for this Turan dude, the first pro-Russian official in Azerbaijan is its President Ilham Aliev who is a good friend of Vladimir Putin and, unlike Erdogan, is extremely well-educated and cultured man who understands the real score. And there is a lot to this score what Bayoglu doesn't understand precisely because he is the leader of Turan party. I will omit here elaboration of a fallacy of pan-Turkism but, of course, events in Kazakhstan just all but killed this idea in every practical sense and it is not only Ankara which cries now, there are very many people in London who, yet again, discovered that contrived geopolitical concepts mean very little if you are not a superpower. UK is NOT a superpower, it is a second rate power which still suffers from phantom pains of once greatness which is no more. They better learn and internalize this fact both at Downing Street 10 and at Hanslope Park. The sun has set on your empire, just live with it.
The second point is Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov stating today:
"Так что НАТО надо собирать манатки и отправляться на рубежи 1997 года".
Translation: NATO has to pack up its things and move back to the borders of 1997.
I know, it hurts, there will be (already, actually) many pompous statements from the likes of Tony Blinken or Jens Stoltenberg but, thanks to Bernhard of Moon of Alabama who posted brilliant Michael Brenner's piece on US foreign policy, it is totally warranted to present what one of very few true American foreign policy experts writes about the mental state of US "elites".
This is another salient point Brenner makes:
Americanism provides a Unified Field Theory of self-identity, collective enterprise, and the Republic’s enduring meaning. When one element is felt to be in jeopardy, the integrity of the whole edifice becomes vulnerable. In the past, American mythology energized the country in ways that helped it to thrive. Today, it is a dangerous hallucinogen that traps Americans in a time warp more and more distant from reality. There is a muted reflection of this strained condition in the evident truth that Americans have become an insecure people. They grow increasingly anxious about who they are, what they are worth and what life will be like down the road. This is an individual and collective phenomenon. They are related insofar as self-identity and self-esteem are bound up with the civic religion of Americanism. To a considerable degree, it’s been like this since the very beginning. A country that was “born against history” had no past to define and shape the present. A country that was born against tradition had no rooted and common sense of meaning and value that cut deeply into the national psyche. A country that was born against inherited place and position left each individual at once free to acquire status and obliged to do so for insignia of rank were few.
This is an excellent definition of the underlying causes for the American "exceptionlaism" which is an obverse side of insecurity. I write about it non-stop for decades, really. My first book is almost entirely built around this premise. Reality, like gravity, is a bitch--no number of narratives by ignorant and uneducated American journos can obfuscate it without creation of a serious nation-wide cognitive dissonance which inevitably translated into the psychological, if not psychiatric, disorders on a massive scale. Reality will inevitably bite into one's ass no matter how one tries to construct own alternative "reality". Will see how it will go in Geneva tomorrow but Ryabkov was actually very upbeat today about preliminary talks, meaning dinner, (in Russian). We'll see. Geneva is just a start, Russia is not interested in humiliating the US at this stage (the US does a swell job on its own) and still leaves an honorable, face-saving exit for the US, which, in the end could be presented as a triumph of common sense and superpowers working together. For the US internally it could play well against the background of upcoming mid-terms and a serious economic downturn.
If not, well--chose on your own pawns which will be removed form the "chess board" by Russia and what new weapon systems will be announced and deployed without leaving NATO any option but to capitulate. But that is the food for thought for tomorrow. This is just a part of the VTA's IL-76s yesterday, at some point of time during the day, in Alma-Ata airport alone.
By means of new video:
.... than hear and read about it. Zvezda elaborated on Russian-Chinese naval exercise taking place now in the Sea of Japan and yes--this is not your regular exercise, which, indeed, attracted USS Chafee. In Russian, starting from 5:30 through 9:00.
1. Formation of the joint Ships Search-Strike Group (KPUG);
2. Joint ASW activity including KPUG's search and destroy of "enemy" submarine;
3. Setting up and engaging joint Air-Defense of the group, including target and targeting data distribution within group (Netcentricity, hello!);
4. Joint launching (electronic) of anti-shipping missiles by the group;
5. Other combat tasks such as counter-mine and gunnery.
This is how military ALLIES train. This is how they integrate their forces and, boy, we can only speculate now at what stage of integration those forces are. I am sure it is in advanced stage.
In related news, Russians, with sarcastic laughter, noticed (in Russian) that Hadley Gamble didn't listen to many Putin's answers during recent moderating of Russia's Energy Week and was merely trying to look good while asking questions. No shit! The whole core idea of US media and politicos is how to turn anything being about precious me, me, me. It is narcissism taken to eleven. LOL. Apart from the obvious fact that many of them are simply dumb and badly educated to grasp even simplest of the responses. Can you imagine trying to explain how Operational Sweep in Northern Atlantic against heterogeneous forces of Russian Navy has a direct influence on geopolitics to Hadley Gamble or... ahem, David Axe. Good luck with that. Same wish of good luck goes to Turkey (another LOL) who tries now to return her $1.4 billion of down-payment for F-35s, while Washington offers Erdogan (his words)...F-16. You literally cannot make this shit up.
Good luck, Turkey, getting your money back. Turkey may expect down the road offers to buy M-4 Sherman tanks and P-51 Mustangs, and why not? F-16 is an excellent combat plane for... the war against countries with no viable air forces in 1990s. It is 2021 today. But even more stunning was this, three days ago--I posted it on the discussion but give it a minute to take in what is being said:
Just think about it. This is not some BS think-tank in D.C. These are people with actual power and policy-setting positions. Polish press went apoplectic on this:
Cynizm czy odrealnienie? Podsekretarz stanu USA poprosiła Rosję o... zapewnienie Europie bezpieczeństwa energetycznego
Translation: Cynicism or unreality? The US Undersecretary of State asked Russia to ... ensure energy security for Europe.
I have news for Polish politicos and media personalities. Read my lips--second or third tier powers, such as Poland (for all my love for Polish culture), trying to interject themselves into the big guys game always ends up bad for such powers as Poland. Recall 1939? It is a cold hard fact of life. The US needed Poland as a front window for Western "capitalism" in the wake of the Soviet collapse and then as a pro-American spoiler in messy European affairs, including as a saboteur for Russia's energy projects, to be thrown out as used condom later. Now, this time has come for a simple reason, the United States tries to coral all her, by far not infinite, in fact very limited, resources to meet Chinese and Russian "challenges" and Poland, despite her active and fairly influential US diaspora, is not that important in the larger scheme of things.
The times when Poland had a respectable industry from extraction to massive shipbuilding and even consumer electronics capacity are long gone, and Poland today is primarily a FIRE economy--EU made sure that Poland will be primarily a consumer, not a supplier. So did the US. After all, Germany and France (or Netherlands)--they have their own working class to feed and to do so they have to have high value added physical economy staying home. So, there you are. The United States is too busy making a killing at the hotter than hot Asian energy market and Polish LNG facilities can wait. Come on, guys, nothing personal, just business and the business is good for the United States in Asia. And that is just one factor, there are many more. Big powers always think about themselves first--it is an axiom. It is about time Polish political class recognized it. Words are worthless, especially when they involve such terms as "common values", "democracy", "human rights", "freedom of speech" etc. Russians, meanwhile, are still trying to figure out who among US elites (groups, clans, mafias etc.) has at least some capability to govern and with whom one can have a meaningful dialogue. This is a tall order.
Some interesting statistics from three consecutive Russia's Air, Navy and Army exhibitions in 2021.
Translation: MOSCOW, September 7. / TASS /. Rosoboronexport (part of the Rostec state corporation) signed contracts for the supply of weapons worth € 3 billion (more than $3.5 billion) during the International Maritime Defense Show (IMDS-2021), the MAKS-2021 air show and the Army-2021 international forum held in the summer. This was reported to journalists on Tuesday in the press service of the company.
In general, Rosoboronexport's contract portfolio today is around $52 billion and it is a whopping sum, considering non-stop sabotage and sanctions from the United States and her lap-dogs. Yet, even NATO is not impervious to those pesky Russian weapon systems.
Authorities in Saudi Arabia say they have intercepted three ballistic missiles targeting the country’s oil-rich eastern region as well as the cities of Najran and Jazan in the south. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for Saturday’s attacks, but the Saudi-led coalition fighting the Houthis in Yemen blamed the Iran-aligned rebel group. There were no reports of casualties. A source familiar with the matter told the Reuters news agency that the missile aimed at the eastern region was intercepted over the city of Dammam. Shrapnel from the missile scattered over the Dammam Suburb neighborhood, injuring two Saudi children, while 14 homes suffered light damages, the official SPA news agency said, citing a statement by the defense ministry.
Obviously, the United States is very unhappy, because for many years after the collapse of the Soviet Union the United States considered arms trade and domination of the lucrative global arms markets its forte'. But things change, as does technology, tactics, operational art and strategy. It is about adapting, it always was and today the United States is not competitive across several important segments of weapons' market among which air-defense, armor and missile strike systems are most noticeable. It is not just technology issue--it is a doctrinal one. Afghanistan factor, moreover, will continue to impede American military-technological competitiveness on the international arms market, no matter how all kinds of "arms trade" observers, such as SIPRI, among many, will play (or falsify) statistics. There is very little doubt that Afghanistan was merely a visual representation for laymen of the process which started immediately after the Gulf War and which exercised a baneful influence on "American Way of War". Arms trade merely reflects a long-time trend in warfare which experienced a truly revolutionary development starting from early 2000s, the same way as era of sail yielded to the steam-driven and armored ships... times ten. Expect a lot of butt-hurt in Western media.
Relatively sidelined, relative to a chaos in Afghanistan which now occupies all media 24/7. But life goes on and for richer customers Russia flies in Turkey an export version of SU-57E (in Russian), which will be shown at the IDEF' 21 exhibition which opens tomorrow in Istanbul. It is the 15th time that IDEF'21 is held, and it is not accidental that it will be presented in Turkey. Mr. Erdogan was already treated to SU-57 before and you remember his question to Putin, right?
"We're Buying This One?" Turkey's Erdogan Asks Putin In Front Of Su-57 Fighter At Air Show
Something tells me, the first export contract for SU-57 could be signed with Turkey.
In the end, Russians love Turkish resorts and, in a tragic event, the crew of Russian Be-200 plus Turkish engineers perished few days ago, when one of the Beriev planes, which helps to fight Turkey's immense fires, went down. Many of those fires are around Turkey's coastal resort towns, which Russian love to visit. Massive evacuations of population and vacationers took place recently there. So, in general, there is a lot what is going on there and Turks definitely appreciate Russia's help. But since we are all still in unfolding situation in Kabul, listen what Douglas Macgregor has to say to Tucker starting from 2:54.
For those who assess modern geopolitics by the appearances in Western media, and want Putin to behave like an...American politician, spewing BS and trying desperately to look good--you better check your contact with reality. Most of the world does not give a flying fuck about West's public opinion anymore and Western media are today laughed at all over the world being viewed as crude pathetic propaganda and spin-machines. To illustrate some actual geopolitical dynamics we take...Turkey.
Here is a recent poll by Areda on who the Turks want to see as their ally, the US or Russia. Well...
Here is a translation:
RUSSIA IS OUR STRATEGIC PARTNER” When asked “How would you define the relations between Russia and Turkey” in the survey, 58.2 percent of the respondents said “there is a strategic partnership”. Other answers to the same question were as follows; "10.5 percent are cooperative", 6.5 percent "close cooperation", 4.5 percent "neither cooperation or problems", 9 percent "problems", 11.4 percent "hostile." "WE DON'T TRUST THE USA" When asked about the relations between the USA and Turkey, which was asked as "Which of the following options best describes the USA in terms of its relations with Turkey", 35.5 percent of the Turkish people said "unreliable". While 32.8% of the citizens said to the same question as 'colonial country', the other answers of the participants were as 'strategic partner' (18.3%), 'enemy country' (12.4%), and 'friendly and allied country' by 1%. RUSSIA YES, USA NO
In general, here is the main conclusion of this poll:
CRITICAL CHOICE IS FOR RUSSIA If you were to choose between the USA and Russia, the answer to the question "Which country would you like Turkey to develop more relations with?" was answered by Russia with 78.9 percent, while the USA remained at 21.1 percent.
I have a profound respect for Colonel Douglas Macgregor, whom I count as one of the diamonds in a cesspool of US "elites", but even this exemplary American officer has his flaws. We all do. Yesterday Macgregor published a piece in The American Conservative which opens with a broadside.
Putin’s Turkish Nightmare. The revived geopolitical rivalry between Russia and Turkey spells trouble for Putin and his allies.
Here, we need to clarify some things immediately, because there is NO "rivalry" between Russia and Turkey for a simple reason that two countries are in a completely different leagues across the whole spectrum of nations' activities ranging from the economy, to military to science to what have you. The United States and Russia are rivals, China and the United States are rivals, France and Germany are latent rivals. Turkey and Russia are not, not even close. Turkey is a regional power with its own set of objectives, grossly embellished by Erdogans' personal ambitions and delusions but to be a rival to someone one needs to have an appropriate geopolitical weight.
Here is a recent (warning: it is Bloomberg) review of Turkey's economy and here is how it is being assessed by Turks themselves, and keep in mind that the actual "growth" is not a rebound after Covid:
Moreover, the growth of a manufacturing sector in Turkey is a manufacturing sector of what used to be called in good ol' times a developing country. As you can see yourself, in the end government spending, services, agriculture with construction constitute a lion share of Turkish GDP.
And when it comes to "developing" it means only one thing--either heavy licensing in what constitutes the foundation of military-industrial capacity or tier 2 and lower participation on joint projects without technology transfer. Such as F-35 in which Turkey participated as a wing and engine parts manufacturer. In other words, even when one sees graceful Milgem-class frigates--an indigenous Turkish combat ship, one has to remember that much of these ships innards are not of Turkish origin.
_from_aboard_the_guided_missile_destroyer_USS_Ross_(DDG_71)_in_the_Mediterranean_Sea_during_a_passing_exercise_Sept_140902-N-IY142-159.jpg/1280px-thumbnail.jpg)
Ankara’s successful intervention to support Azerbaijan’s seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenian control has worsened the relationship. Armenia’s humiliation may shake the resolve of others allied with Moscow.
Here is where he makes a huge mistake:
1. Starting with Turkey. Turks, as all people of the region, have a propensity for exaggeration of own significance and successes. Turkey was fast to assign the credit for Azerbaijan's success in Nagornyi Karabakh to itself, especially pressing grossly overrated Turkish UAVs' capabilities. In reality, while representatives of Turkish General Staff were present at a planning and execution stage of Azerbaijan's operations, a decisive factor in Azeri success were not Turkish UAVs but Azerbaijan's overwhelming advantage over Armenian forces there in terms of MLRS and artillery, ranging from a devastating Smerch 9A52 systems to good ol' self-propelled guns. This, combined with a decade long training of Azerbaijan's Army specifically for this operation and a flow (worth $4 billion) of advanced Russian weapons, including T-90 tanks, S-300 PMU2 air defense and all kinds of infantry weapons, assured Azerbaijan's success.
2. Russia from the git go took a deliberate stand-off position on this matter and I will not delve into the list of all reasons for that, but this position was well calculated and, in the long run, served Russia's strategic interests against the background of crumbling Russian-Armenian relations. In other words--Russia tacitly allowed Azerbaijan to take what Azerbaijan counts as it's rightfully own. Needless to say, that President Putin was and remains a very good friend of Aliev's family (including both human and professional closeness with late Geydar Aliev) and has excellent relations with Ilham Aliev. This IS NOT the case with Armenia's leadership and especially Armenian diaspora.
In other words, Russia doesn't see much danger from Turkey having presence in the region and what are the limits of this presence, I am sure, Putin and Ilham Aliev had a very constructive discussion on this issue. Needless to say, that for all assistance from Sunni Turkey, Azerbaijanis are Shiites and overwhelming majority of them lives in...Iran, in three provinces symptomatically named...Azerbaijan. Iran has an immense influence in Azerbaijan's politics and economy and this factor cannot be discounted against the background of Turkish-Azerbaijani cooperation. In other words--it is much more complex than the black and white picture Macgregor draws and there was NO shaking of faith in regards to Nagorny Karabakh, which, incidentally, is not even recognized by Armenia proper.
As for Turkish dramatically overrated UAVs' operations against what turned out to be a grossly outdated and untrained Artsakh air defense, and Turkey having, in reality, a rather mediocre military force when faced with determined and experienced enemy--Turkish operations' collapse in Idlib in 2020 once Syrians pulled in their good ol' Osas and Buks is an exhibit A of Turkey's military limitations.
If Biden were to ask Putin where the next Sunni Islamist Caliphate will arise, Putin would likely tell him: “Mr. President, it’s already here. It’s called Turkey, my nightmare.”
Is a bit too simplistic and Turkey for Russia is not a rival but possible minor spoiler, not to mention the fact that grandiose aspirations by Turkey usually (historically) have been cut down by the reality of military-political balance in the region which seldom favored Turks no matter what they tried. So aspirations of Erdogan, as Macgregor points out:
According to Erdogan’s critics, Erdogan’s strategic vision for the Turkish nation is to be recognized on the world stage as a global power. This means Turkey must become a Balkan power, a Mediterranean power, a Middle Eastern power, a North African and even limited African power, a Caucasian power, a Central Asian power, a Eurasian power, and especially a Muslim power.
Is a bridge too far in the 21st century, because to become all that Turkey needs to move in the direction opposite to what Erdogan and Muslim Brotherhood preach and that runs immediately into the realities of modern industrial economy and the wall of Iran's own interests in the region and Russians know this damn well. That is why they sit above this geopolitical dance and observe, while contemplating what to do next and who to help. After all, Erdogan is mortal and is 67 and has a very nerve-wrecking life. Plus, it is good to have options. Simple as that.
So, no, Turkey is not Russia's (or Putin's) nightmare, not even close. Psychos in D.C., however, are, because unlike Turks they are non-agreement capable 100% of a time.
The U.S. routinely buys foreign technology and could both exploit the S-400′s technology and test U.S. tactics, said Jim Townsend, a former Pentagon official for European and NATO policy. If Turkey doesn’t go for the idea, he said, the two countries are still stuck. “I think the US buying the S-400s from Turkey is a clever way of getting Erdogan out of the jam he put himself in,” Townsend said. “We just want to get the system out of Turkey ... and if it enables the Turks to take part in the F-35 then all the better.”
