... Poland.
Russia fights for us against banderites. Strangely enough, but it is true.
As Polish WNP writes:
- Ukraine is losing more land. At the moment, our neighbors do not have enough potential to defend themselves. They have to negotiate, but they have weak cards in their hands. President Putin holds the aces.
- At the same time, the determination of Ukrainians to defend their own state has been exhausted. The mistakes made by the government are taking revenge.
- Observers point out that without Donald Trump's energetic commitment, nothing will come out of the negotiations. And he is spinning scenarios that are dangerous for Ukraine, but also for Polish and Europe.
This is totally called for, and this is the most Polish thing ever)).
No, not that, this)))
This video united all slav countries better than any emperor ever.
Difficult to disagree. I omit here jokes on this issue--this could take a long and funny while.
... especially when Poland is reminded of a cold hard fact of Stalin giving Poland German territories after WW II. Official Warsaw went ballistic. Plus this:
... gives updates from Tzvetnoi (Colorful) Boulevard and Moscow-city.
And here is an interesting snippet:
Well, Russian internal market is huge and despite sanctions and natural for any developed nation islands of low income and social problems, Russians largely remain solvent and continue to buy stuff ranging from food to consumer goods.
Meanwhile, rescue continues in Turkey and Syria, and some small miracles still happen like with this Turkish girl 4 days after quake.
Pretty much expected, but squealing from self-righteous West will be heard even in the neighboring galaxy.
Indeed, why some foreign national who is a shareholder of a strategic corporation have any voice in the corporation which is Russian by nature and main capital? Pretty reasonable, if you ask me. Obviously the West will not like it, but--too bad.
In related news--you cannot fix stupid, because, well, Dunning Kruger effect, you know. No matter how one, me, as an example, will try to explain to politician, especially with degree in art and "history", what real war and real war economy and resources' management are--useless, they simply do not have a tool kit to grasp it. How to reelect themselves--yes, they have this ability, how to run a superpower--no, not even close.
I assume that some people who know the score at least tried to explain to him what is the game and what are the numbers, but cretins from Western political beau monde and media still believe their own BS. My friend, Mike Krupa, sent me this thing--imbecile Duda with the smile on his face tells that Poland disarmed herself to arm Ukraine. What can I say--a complete and utter degeneracy of Western "elites" is complete and, as practice shows, it is not confined just to Poland. Far from it--the whole Europe now is a basket case economically, militarily and culturally. Again, how can you explain to some European bottom-feeder what REAL war time economy is? Impossible. Same goes to the US, but in the US due to its geopolitical weight there is at least some understanding of the issue, and many DO talk about it.
Now to our "friends" in UK. I am sure after graduating Sandhurst... ah, wait... that's The Guardian and their school of "advanced operational studies".
UK is sending 14 tanks, and other countries may soon send more but experts say Kyiv needs about 100
Well, British "expertise" and "experts" in modern warfare is the same thing as Kenya's national ice-hockey team. Nothing personal against fine and truly beautiful and dynamic African nation. I wonder, who those "experts" are and how they calculated this "about 100" number. I know they just pulled that out of their asses and most likely those "experts" are some creeps from The Guardian with Oxford degree in literature, but still--I would love to see how they arrived to this number. Why not 200, or 135, or 1,000 for that matter, with the latter being more realistic number for what's left of VSU to have any serious operational impact. But then again, I would love to see the Ukie so called Air Force sortie numbers, wink, wink, to support this.
Per Russian MoD as of today, January 17, 2023, Russian Armed Forces annihilated 7,549 Ukie and other NATO tanks and armored vehicles.
Wait a minute, how could this be, wink, wink?
Translation: MOSCOW, 20 December. /TASS/. Transneft has received applications from Poland and Germany to pump oil for December, 2023 and the first quarter of next year, respectively, despite reports of unwillingness to continue deliveries. This was stated by Transneft President Nikolai Tokarev on Tuesday on the air of the Rossiya-24 TV channel. “They announced that they would not take oil from Russia from January 1. And now we have received applications from Polish consumers: give us 3 million tons next year, and 360 thousand tons for December, and Germany has already submitted an application for the first quarter “Give it to us too,” he said.
Of course, Transneft has a long-term (through 2024) contract with Polish operator Orlen, but... but... what about sanctions, price caps and shit like that? Nah, it is all for the show. The latest EU (9th) "horrible" sanctions cancelled for Russia... succory, acetone and... lasers (here I start to giggle uncontrollably) with... rhododendrons. WTF. This horrifying "package" moved Elena Karaeva to write an acerbic and hilarious piece for Ria (sadly, only in Russian) on this matter. You see, there are reportedly 130 PR agencies from the US alone which are in charge of "spinning" the SMO. But somebody forgot to tell those "experts" that reality is a bitch and no amount of spin can substitute food, heat and military victory. But what do I know?
Meanwhile, the info from Bakhmut is dire for VSU and, without going into long elaborations, there seems to be a nice "little" cauldron forming which will collapse the front. VSU even throws formations from Kherson to Bakhmut. Make your own conclusions. The reports about losses of VSU are mind-boggling even from the actively pro-Kiev regime US "Mozart" group.
Meanwhile:
Somebody needs to tell Gurulev (a very dubious figure to put it mildly) to shut his yapper once in a while, but since the info is out, let's start the stop-watch before "anonymous official" from Pentagon, State Department, CIA, NASA, USDA etc. (take you pick) will tell NYT that they saved Vladimir Putin's life by telling Kiev not to kill him, right;)) So, here we are today.
Wonderful Ania provides some extremely important insights into Poland's situation:
My Polish friend Mike Krupa penned an excellent piece on Polish dissident voices.
It is also notable, as Krupa writes:
Wielomski believes that in the current geopolitical situation, Poland has two options: either to be a transmission and trade-belt on the Beijing-Moscow-Berlin-Paris axis and benefit from it, given its geographical location, or become nothing more than “a spoiler of the United States in Eurasia.” The Polish elites chose the second option. “They may be right; but I, for one, was not convinced. To be frank, they didn’t even try to convince anyone, because after 1989 there was no debate on this issue in Poland. The government was taken over by people who had been in opposition until 1989 and who took money from the CIA for their activities, pacifying not only opposing views but even calls for a debate on this issue.”
Pay attention to a geopolitical arrangement which should have been but never materialized. In general, read the whole thing--it is excellent.
In the interview to Welt, no less, General Roland Kather arrived to this conclusion:
„Die Russen haben lokal eine bedrückende Überlegenheit erzielt“
Der russische Präsident Wladimir Putin sieht nach Einschätzung des Politologen und Militärexperten Carlo Masala derzeit keinen Grund zu Verhandlungen mit der Ukraine. Putin werde erst dann ernsthaft zu verhandeln beginnen, wenn er befürchten müsse, durch eine Fortführung des Krieges mehr zu verlieren als zu gewinnen, sagte Masala, Professor für Internationale Politik an der Universität der Bundeswehr in München, der Deutschen Presse-Agentur. Genau das aber sei derzeit nicht der Fall.
Translation: The Poles under the national flag will not go either to Belarus or to Ukraine. Mercenaries, volunteers, whatever you want to call them, can go to the Donbass, somewhere in the Lviv region or the Ternopil region, but not the servicemen of the Polish army. Poland is part of NATO, and one shot from NATO towards Russia is the beginning of the Third World War. Everyone understands this, and I think Warsaw received a very clear command from Washington: not to take initiative. America does not want to perish because of Ukraine or because of Poland. In a global nuclear war, which is exactly what World War III will inevitably become, there will be no winners. As for the exercises in Belarus, these are standard military measures in response to the maneuvers of NATO troops passing on the other side of the border. The Western military bloc is now conducting them in whole series, one after the other. Alexander Lukashenko demonstrates that he keeps his gunpowder dry.
Read the whole thing--it is professional. It also addresses the issue (hilarious one for those who understand how operations are planned) of "Russia running out of high-precision weapons", a favorite shtick of morons from Western media, who broadcast Ukie propaganda. Per "decision tree", I speak about it a lot in my videos. Here is your "media" primer for Sunday.
In the same time, in some sense, it is a very Polish thing to do:
Well, if my Alzheimer doesn't fail me, it was namely Poland who wanted spot prices and "market" to define them. Always think twice what you wish for, because those wishes may come true. Gazprom gladly obliged and Poland, unlike it is the case with Hungary, now should pay a fair price, the way market found it. But this Morawiecki's idea is down right bizarre.
“Write to your young friends in Norway,” he said. “They should share it immediately,” Morawiecki stated, adding that it shouldn’t necessarily be shared with Poland, but with Ukraine.
Well, here is everything you need to know about present day Poland. You see, and I did elaborate on this issue in my videos on operation and operational planning, when commenting on Australian Defense Ministry's Science and Technology Board PPP:
Meanwhile, I begin to elaborate in very small portions about my technical disagreement with Pepe regarding 404 being able to raise any army in the Western Ukraine. Today is a small piece of reasons:
1. 404 is now in Nth mobilization and the quality of personnel, many of them from Western Ukraine declined dramatically, because best of the best have been physically annihilated and, after two major waves of immigration--one to Russia, but even larger stream to Europe, Ukraine simply doesn't have mobilization base enough to assemble, let alone arm, any serious military force. Hence Zelensky's obvious lie about the size of VSU. But even if to assume that he doesn't lie, one has to admit Russian, dramatically numerically inferior, forces are doing a very good job of annihilating the Ukrainian military. Otherwise, how can one explain a huge number of those young men from Western Ukraine who are flooding Europe today and are in no hurry to be sent to the front. Just think about it:
So, considering realistic population of Ukraine numbering now 25-27 million, with 7 million (much less now) living in the Western Ukraine, unless one wants to draft 12-13 year boys (I wouldn't put this past Kiev regime), the prospects of raising a proper, combat capable that is, new army are rather bleak.
2. Let's not forget also that we live in 2022 and this is how new VSU recruits get acquainted with modern war precisely in the areas (this one is in Desna North of Kiev) where many loyalists reside. These are Desna barracks with very little left of new recruits and this was just a couple-three 3M14 Kalibrs a couple of days ago.
So, just these two, out of many purely technical considerations, are already enough to start questioning REAL mobilization and military-industrial capabilities of 404, which were degraded dramatically. But knowing Poland, one has to keep an eye on Warsaw's actions, but then again, there is a reason Russia uses only small percentage of her capabilities in Ukraine and keeps most of them in reserve. Just in case Poland decides to do stupid things, which, judging by Morawecki's escapade towards Norway, tells us that nothing could be excluded when speaking about Warsaw and its curators in D.C.
...his piece at Consortium News. He gives an interesting introspective of Morawiecki's family and talks about the father of the current Polish PM who is very eager to start troubles in the Western Ukraine.
It might come as a surprise to many, however, that this eagerness to be in the vanguard of the West’s proxy war with Russia in Ukraine, does not, so to say, run in the family. The Polish prime minister’s father, Kornel Morawiecki, who succumbed in 2019 to pancreatic cancer at age 78 and was a legend among old school anti-Communist oppositionists, is a case in point. Despite being the founder of one the most radically anti-Communist underground oppositionist groups in Poland in the 1980s, the Fighting Solidarity, Morawiecki Sr. in his late political career — during which he was an MP and senior marshal of the Polish Sejm — displayed an altogether different attitude towards Poland’s geopolitical position, and by extension, Russia. If one were to throw a simplistic ideological divide between the father and the son, we can say the father was definitely the realist, while the son was and remains the hawk.
Read the whole article, which Mike ends, after reviewing realist position of current Polish PM's father. Mike concludes this excellent piece with witty comparison.
This seems to be the modus operandi of the West — the United States in particular — when politically back-patting Warsaw for being useful in whichever type of war, cold or proxy, the West and Russia happen to be engaged. Kornel Morawiecki, one of the few public voices of dissent on this crucial and in fact existential issue for Poland, knew this well. Whatever his thoughts on the current war might have been, he succinctly summed up the current sentiment of many Poles: “Our foreign policy is unfortunately reduced to playing the role of Washington’s puppet.” Sadly, in this case, the apple has fallen very far from the tree.
This, however, is not the only excellent piece Mike writes at this turbulent time. Here is his another excellent history piece in the American Conservative.
Regarding Russia, Poland Needs to Grow Up. It is past time for the Polish political establishment to implement the vision of Roman Dmowski for a mature foreign policy.
More stealing! LOL, Germany wants to expropriate Russia-owned refineries in Germany. Now, Poland wants the piece of the action too.
As Poland desperately attempts to restore the flow of Russian gas to the country, its government has ordered Russian Novatek to hand over pipeline infrastructure or face legal action amounting to infrastructure expropriation. On Friday, a Polish government spokesman told the Associated Press that Russian Novatek Green Energy had been ordered to make its pipelines available to Polish companies and that failure to comply would mean legal action. Invoking crisis management laws, AP cited government spokesperson Piotr Mueller as saying that the fate of Novatek, Russia’s second-largest natural gas producer, “depends on whether this Russian firm, linked to Russia, will cooperate in the proper way …. whether the employees, acting on some instructions, will not be trying to block this process in some way”.
But, wait a minute, it was Poland, if my memory doesn't fail me, who wanted spot-pricing initially, which drove prices through the stratosphere, and then Poland underscored at every opportunity her independence from Russian totalitarian gas. And now she is desperate. Oh my, such a Polish thing to do. Sure, let Poland cease the pipe-line, see what happens. Polish political top brass should recall a fundamental principle of any war, bet that hot, cold or merely economic. It reads like that: war is a very democratic affair--the enemy also has a say.
Understanding this fundamental principle seems to escape the minds of EU "elites" and as the result each time they get slapped in the face by Russia they get hysterical and forget, in addition to other forgotten things, that normal governance, same as normal war-fighting, is done based on contingency planning. Russians do contingency planning 24/7 and the results are showing in the last 8 years. Here is another demonstration of spoiled children running Europe into he ground.
Bloviation on the matters of "if Russia finds alternative buyers" is nothing more than verbal self-medication and PR. PR is the only thing Western "elites" are good at. Real governing and competent foreign policy--not so much. It is hard, one has to study hard, learn a lot and be incorruptible--a very tall order for both D.C. and Brussels. Plus, the news from the fronts in 404 are bad, really bad for NATO. In fact, it is so bad, that great British mind, a strategist the likes of which world hasn't seen before to rise out of London, and who makes Winston Churchill and Disraeli look like amateurs, UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss called upon creation of "global NATO" and concluded with this:
The war in Ukraine is our war – it is everyone’s war because Ukraine’s victory is a strategic imperative for all of us.
So, quoting Harry Dunne from Dumb and Dumber (love this movie) in relation to this woman: "You know, Liz, just when I think you couldn't possibly be any dumber, you go and do something like this...and totally redeem yourself!" Indeed, what other peaks of sheer idiocy will those people summit before they succeed in creating a wonderful mix of Orwellian horror and Idiocracy slap-stick comedy. Especially UK, who really provides as of lately a bulk of stupefying geopolitical cretinism, while being the nation in precipitous decline on all fronts and being noting more than America's chihuahua who is allowed to bark at guests at the party from master's lap.
To demonstrate how bad are things for Kiev regime propped up by NATO? Here is Sladkov talking to Hero of Ukraine Evgeny Bova (In Russian).
But one thing really caught my attention today. It is really disturbing to read because the rate of suicides, even considering a repair mode of any ship, is downright bizarre.
Read the whole thing, it is both disturbing and stunning. The rate of suicides is atrocious and why? Because they have been forced to do duties on the aircraft carrier which is undergoing overhaul? Yes, these are also military duties, I am sure written in many manuals and many of those duties are not glamorous and involve often physical effort. They also involve dealing with noise, dirt, boredom and repetitiveness. The article, actually, makes a good point:
Smith disagreed when a sailor said living standards on the ship were not “necessarily up to par.” He said that the sailors get to go home most nights and that they were not “sleeping in a foxhole like a Marine might be doing.”
Excellent point. You have a cot, you have three hot square meals a day, snacks and, apart from traditional overhaul work-place risks of trauma, nobody shoots at you, let alone you are not under fire from artillery in some basement without water, heat and food. Try that for a change and see how the attitude will change. Could it be the case of a generation of Americans becoming absolutely soft mentally, entitled and unable to cope with even minor difficulties? This is military service, people, not a summer resort. I think that is precisely the case here, notwithstanding some legitimate complains about improving the department of "reasonable accommodation". So, this is your primer for Friday.
... at all. I will remind you one thing I wrote last year, while demolishing Valdai Club Timofeev's (lack of) military expertise who, as well as other native Russian "experts" of this kind, RT loves to invite to spread ignorance around. Here is this "thing":
In fact, I am on record about Polish (and other East European) aspirations towards Western Ukraine for years. In the end, there are Hungarians and Rusins who already beg Victor Orban for protection for more than a year, there is Bukovina where Romania may get some satisfaction from the coming "loss" of Moldavia. So, RT reports:
Well, I think it is Ukraine which made a wrong choice, not Hungary who has been keeping much of its army near Ukrainian border for a while. And it goes without saying that Poles remember the original name of the Polish city currently known as Lvov, and it is Lemberg or Lwow. So, Alex Christoforou makes some announcements (with caveat, obviously) today about this Polish thing.
As they say, there is no smoke without fire, and I think the probability of Poland getting in is far from trivial. Also, circulation of such let's call them, for now, rumors has a significant military aspect behind them, because Polish Armed Forces are by far not the Russian Army and they follow operation Z very attentively calculating required force and I am sure behind closed doors Polish military people are pretty happy seeing reports of annihilation of large VSU forces, but especially those of Neo-Nazi formations, such as Azov "battalion", who have roots in the Western Ukraine. The more "banderistas" Russians bury, the easier it will be for Polish "peace keepers" to deal with whatever resistance they may encounter in and around Lwow.
In fact, the whole logic of the conflict dictates these events, including possible partition of what's will be left of Ukraine. In related news, while Western military "experts" (such as this "expert") from NYT continue to spew headlines like this:
Here is the video from War Gonzo on how "brave" Azov is going to fight, while not allowing people to leave their homes and be used as a human shield.
Moreover, I reiterate, operation develops as planned and reserves haven't been introduced yet and it is done for a reason--numerically smaller Russian and LDNR force already did what is called a strategic reconnaissance in force and in doing so demolished VSU almost entirely. I am on record, and you can and are encouraged to quote me on this--this operation will be studied in military academies around the world for many decades to come. It is something absolutely unique in scale, scope and surgical precision. Here is summary (aggregate) on VSU for March 9.
Is the United States ready to sacrifice Eastern Europe? Not out of the realm of possibilities. Poland begins to feel the heat.
As I state non-stop, any "transfer" of combat aircraft to 404 will merely assure those aircraft being destroyed either in the air or on the airfields of the "host" (presumably NATO members) and militarily is absolutely meaningless. This is a primer for Wednesday.
It never ceases. I mean life. I address immediately the issue which interests everybody. Give it a thought, for a minute by asking these few basic questions and then answering them:
1. Q: Do Russians know who people in D.C. are?
A: Yes, they do, in fact, I think they know it better than people in D.C. themselves.
2. Q: Did Russia issue ultimatum to NATO in hope of a compromise?
A: NO! The reason Russia issued this ultimatum was to publicly frame what will happen after the expected "maneuvering" by the US (I do not count Europe here at all--they are nobodies).
3. Q: Do Russians have a military contingency plan in case (highly probable, but not fully guaranteed) the US throwing the tantrum and "refusing" this ultimatum?
A: Yes. As Bismark is known to say: even when going to toilet for number 2 Russian makes a plan(c). Not arguably, but historically--Russian General Staff is the best planner not just militarily but across the whole spectrum of national security and national interests issue. Nobody comes even close.
Russia DOES have all military-technological, economic and political means to stop NATO expansion, NATO's desires notwithstanding--simple as that. I write about the widening technological and operational gap for many years now.
On a side note, judging by the hysteria in the Sikorski-Applebaum fanatic neocon family, they sense what is coming.
Here is a fine specimen of a product of British and American higher education and what passes for "diplomacy" here. So, that's the "level". Can you imagine discussing anything with this dude or his wife Anne Applebaum, who specializes in a-historical BS and has a "degree" in it. Reality is not their specialization, BSing is. Remarkably, Sikorski will not be able to explain why Russia needs Poland? Poland has been thoroughly deindustrialized and lives to a large degree on EU's handouts. Russia doesn't need freeloaders. Poland is Poland and let Poland solve her problems on her own. Depending on the course of actions by Russia, Poland may even benefit in the long run by returning Lemberg (Lvov) to herself once 404 issue will be settled. Simple as that.
.... than hear and read about it. Zvezda elaborated on Russian-Chinese naval exercise taking place now in the Sea of Japan and yes--this is not your regular exercise, which, indeed, attracted USS Chafee. In Russian, starting from 5:30 through 9:00.
1. Formation of the joint Ships Search-Strike Group (KPUG);
2. Joint ASW activity including KPUG's search and destroy of "enemy" submarine;
3. Setting up and engaging joint Air-Defense of the group, including target and targeting data distribution within group (Netcentricity, hello!);
4. Joint launching (electronic) of anti-shipping missiles by the group;
5. Other combat tasks such as counter-mine and gunnery.
This is how military ALLIES train. This is how they integrate their forces and, boy, we can only speculate now at what stage of integration those forces are. I am sure it is in advanced stage.
In related news, Russians, with sarcastic laughter, noticed (in Russian) that Hadley Gamble didn't listen to many Putin's answers during recent moderating of Russia's Energy Week and was merely trying to look good while asking questions. No shit! The whole core idea of US media and politicos is how to turn anything being about precious me, me, me. It is narcissism taken to eleven. LOL. Apart from the obvious fact that many of them are simply dumb and badly educated to grasp even simplest of the responses. Can you imagine trying to explain how Operational Sweep in Northern Atlantic against heterogeneous forces of Russian Navy has a direct influence on geopolitics to Hadley Gamble or... ahem, David Axe. Good luck with that. Same wish of good luck goes to Turkey (another LOL) who tries now to return her $1.4 billion of down-payment for F-35s, while Washington offers Erdogan (his words)...F-16. You literally cannot make this shit up.
Good luck, Turkey, getting your money back. Turkey may expect down the road offers to buy M-4 Sherman tanks and P-51 Mustangs, and why not? F-16 is an excellent combat plane for... the war against countries with no viable air forces in 1990s. It is 2021 today. But even more stunning was this, three days ago--I posted it on the discussion but give it a minute to take in what is being said:
Just think about it. This is not some BS think-tank in D.C. These are people with actual power and policy-setting positions. Polish press went apoplectic on this:
Cynizm czy odrealnienie? Podsekretarz stanu USA poprosiła Rosję o... zapewnienie Europie bezpieczeństwa energetycznego
Translation: Cynicism or unreality? The US Undersecretary of State asked Russia to ... ensure energy security for Europe.
I have news for Polish politicos and media personalities. Read my lips--second or third tier powers, such as Poland (for all my love for Polish culture), trying to interject themselves into the big guys game always ends up bad for such powers as Poland. Recall 1939? It is a cold hard fact of life. The US needed Poland as a front window for Western "capitalism" in the wake of the Soviet collapse and then as a pro-American spoiler in messy European affairs, including as a saboteur for Russia's energy projects, to be thrown out as used condom later. Now, this time has come for a simple reason, the United States tries to coral all her, by far not infinite, in fact very limited, resources to meet Chinese and Russian "challenges" and Poland, despite her active and fairly influential US diaspora, is not that important in the larger scheme of things.
The times when Poland had a respectable industry from extraction to massive shipbuilding and even consumer electronics capacity are long gone, and Poland today is primarily a FIRE economy--EU made sure that Poland will be primarily a consumer, not a supplier. So did the US. After all, Germany and France (or Netherlands)--they have their own working class to feed and to do so they have to have high value added physical economy staying home. So, there you are. The United States is too busy making a killing at the hotter than hot Asian energy market and Polish LNG facilities can wait. Come on, guys, nothing personal, just business and the business is good for the United States in Asia. And that is just one factor, there are many more. Big powers always think about themselves first--it is an axiom. It is about time Polish political class recognized it. Words are worthless, especially when they involve such terms as "common values", "democracy", "human rights", "freedom of speech" etc. Russians, meanwhile, are still trying to figure out who among US elites (groups, clans, mafias etc.) has at least some capability to govern and with whom one can have a meaningful dialogue. This is a tall order.