Poland's Sitrep From Ania.

Wonderful Ania provides some extremely important insights into Poland's situation:

50% tax, up from 19%? Two and a half times higher in just a couple of months. Poland was thoroughly de-industrialized in the last 30 years, with this insane increase, Ania asks, where would those companies go? The answer is obvious--they will leave Poland. Where to, though, is unclear. It all aligns well with the US "kill Europe" strategy, but as everyone observed in the last several days, there is very little real benefit for the US in the long run. In fact, it is detrimental. Despite all efforts from the US current quotes for oil are:

And any machinations and pathos-ridden statements about stopping insurance or even sabotaging more pipelines or even oil-tankers, are just that--desperate attempts to cover up an economic catastrophe unfolding both for Europe and the United States.

Wrong Emphasis.

Not that I disagree with Rogozin in principle when he stated today that: 

"Госдеп заявил, что США хотят сохранить ограничения в рамках СНВ-3 после 2026 года, добиться лимитов на "новые типы" ядерного оружия РФ. Видимо, "Сармат" им уже по ночам снится"

Translation: "The State Department said that the United States wants to maintain restrictions under START-3 after 2026, to achieve limits on "new types" of Russian nuclear weapons. Apparently, they are already dreaming of the Sarmat during the night sleep". 

There is very little doubt that RS-28 Sarmat, as a strategic weapon, is not only unrivaled but also, in a good sense, a complete overkill. But that is the issue, even without Sarmat, the US has zero capability to stop what is known head-on response (second strike capability) of Russia. US dabbling into the ABM technology for the last several decades produced, frankly, very little practical results and is no match for even very limited second strike. Once one considers such weapons as Avangard hyper-sonic gliders (already on combat duty in 13th Missile Red Banner Division in Orenburg) and fast growing gap between the US and Russia in terms of hyper-sonic weapons such as 3M22 Zircon, which turns any SSGN carrying those missiles and deployed at both Pacific and Atlantic into de facto strategic strike platforms, one begins to grasp a scale of the problem facing the US. 

In other word, the US neither has nor will have any time soon any capability to prevent a massive retaliation on own territory in case the US decides to do the unthinkable. I want to remind you, again, about admissions which do come out periodically about a complete vulnerability of the continental US to any modern cruise missile technology, let alone salvos of supersonic and hyper-sonic cruise missiles. It is a Congressional Budget Office report, no less. 

Yes, RS-28 Sarmat is a unique technological achievement, but it shouldn't "simplify" the complexity of the retaliation issue which the US faces and obscure a larger strategic framework in which the actual military capability of the US is nowhere near the image it tried to project in the last couple of decades and, in fact, it now acts as a fast declining power following rigid and unimaginative dogma of Thucydides Trap, because even ongoing SMO demonstrated huge limitations of the United States as self-proclaimed global military power. In the end, who can ignore such "lovely" systems as Poseidon.

Which brings us to the statement of a newly appointed US Ambassador to 404 Bridget A. Brink who stated that it is for VSU to decide at what distance shoot their weapons (in Russian). Brink, being a product of the US "diplomats" diploma mill, obviously, as is expected from the US "diplomats", has no clue what she is talking about, because the only subject which dominates US "diplomats" curriculum is a bombast. For all her credentials, she still doesn't recognize that she is not anymore an ambassador to small Slovakia but to a country which is de facto non-existent anymore and is next to the only country in the world which can wipe the US off the map in 30 minutes. But as I said, you cannot buy culture, let alone proper education, especially in the US foreign policy establishment known for its incompetence. 

There will be 4 HIMARS platforms with 80 kilometer range munitions delivered to Ukraine. Well, even from purely military POV those make no difference whatsoever, granted they even make it to the front line, most likely they will be destroyed before that. But the issue of HIMARS is a "hot button" issue and is primarily PR spun to give Biden Administration precious little to grab onto when facing a complete annihilation with it best ever proxy and facing mid-terms against the background of disastrous approval rating and actual economic calamity unfolding in the United States. I did a fast search (using GEICO's app for cheapest gas) and got a  lovely spread of low grade gas from $5 a gallon in Boston, to $6.50 in L.A. And I started to wonder, for how much longer will this charade continue, because, obviously, the country is ungovernable at this stage and PR procedures do no have a desired effect anymore. I know, one has to conduct actual governance, not running constant election cycle routines and that they don't teach in the US universities. 

About Saving Face.

Alexander Mercouris gives a good explanation on the diplomatic situation around Ukraine and as I say and write for years: before any diplomatic moves always look at the military capabilities of the parties to this activity. 

As for NATO's build-up, it is merely a long-planned Defender-Europe 21 exercise whose timeline may have contributed to the Ukrainian stupidly with its own "build-up" and provocations, to make it look like a coordinated "effort". I can totally see those imbeciles in Kiev doing this and thinking themselves to be crafty. As Alexander correctly states, Russia, while having no desire to go all the way, especially having to take care of that shithole of a country which will fall into Russia's lap as a war trophy in case of real war, is ready for any contingency and that is the message, evidently, the West finally got. 

West, being culturally and politically superficial, is, obviously, all about the face and projecting outward of all kinds of pathlogies as a norm, so the projection of utter incompetence of its diplomacy and strategic planning is OK, in West's mind. Exposing that it is a domain filled amateurs and morons is not, even they understand that--they don't like to look weak and incompetent, despite these two being their defining traits. For the students of late Zbiginew Brzezinski pseudo-scientific geopolitical fantasies it took "merely" 20 years to figure out that Russia wants to be left alone but if need be, she will enforce this regime for herself. I am sure such a realization created a cultural shock when Brussels and D.C. started to suspect that Russia doesn't "want" Ukraine. What Russia wants is for this country to rot and implode without excrement from this implosion hitting Russia. West's paying for the clean up of this clusterfuck is also in Russian plans for Ukrainian Bantustan. 

It is a shocking development and revelation for the West since Brzezinski's geopolitical Bible revealed that Russia wants an empire and that such an empire is impossible without Ukraine. In fact, it was separation from Ukraine, and other freeloading former Soviet republics, which spurred Russia's revival. But then again....ahem. The "gas station masquerading as a country" with economy "left in tatters" and being "smaller than the economy of Spain". You all know the routine. But while at it:

The upward revision for Russia came as the IMF revealed a more optimistic forecast for the global economy amid vaccine rollouts. The fund now expects it to expand by 6% in 2021. The fund said that Russia’s fiscal policy was countercyclical in 2020. It also revised the figures for the crisis year, when Russia, like most countries, implemented lockdowns to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. According to its latest estimates, the Russian economy shrank 3.1%, not the previously reported 3.6%. “There will be some degree of consolidation in 2021 in line with economic recovery, and the deficit is likely to come back to the fiscal rule’s limit in 2022,” the IMF said.... The IMF improved projections for the Russian economy shortly after the World Bank did the same. However, the World Bank is less optimistic, projecting the country’s GDP to grow by 3.3% this year and 3.4% next year.

Well, just to give some comparison. Europe's "economic locomotive", Germany that is, sees the 28th month in a row of Germany's real economy (industrial processing and production) shrinking. That gives one a bit of insight into Russia's rather cool attitude to economic ties to Europe in a sense of seeing a rather grim mid to long-term picture of Europe's economy. So, here is the deal for today. 

On the Ukrainian SU-27 Crash.

But before I proceed with this sad occasion, I want to direct attention to the latest from Gilbert Doctorow who passes in US as Russia "expert" and who in his latest piece Propaganda and Posturing From All Sides... tries to pretend that he is somehow "objective" (quotation marks are intentional). In his piece we find this interesting statement:

Over the past couple of years, Russian state television has daily disseminated the view that Ukraine is one step away from economic and political collapse. This is patently untrue.

As I stated not for once and I will continue to press my point in the next book--any talk about "economy" outside the military power geopolitical framework is an exercise in pseudo-intellectual masturbation and unicorn doctrine-mongering, and that is precisely what most economists have degree in. As this patently false Doctorow's statement so vividly demonstrates. Now, to the main course.

Here is a photo of Lt. Col. Seth “Jethro” Nehring, a fighter pilot with the California Air National Guard’s 194th Fighter Squadron who was killed in Ukrainian SU-27UB crash on October 16th while flying with Ukrainian officer under the auspices of "Clear Skies" exercises. 

It is always sad to see young life (only 44 years old) gone, even when one considers that these "exercises" had zero military value but were only to demonstrate NATO "support" for Ukraine in her existential struggle with Russia, which, as we all know, loses in Ukraine a division or two every single day. But let us continue. Here is a photo of an Ukrainian pilot with whom Lt.Colonel Nehring flew that day.

This is Ukrainian Colonel Ivan Petrenko (known for bombing civilians in Donbass before LDNR, well, Russia grounded Ukrainian Air Force completely). As you can see from his face, not touched by intellect, this "pilot" was morbidly obese--a first no-no for anyone getting into the cockpit of the fighter jet. But let's move even further, the SU-27UB these two pilots were flying that day. Well, here is the data: board number 963104240 SU-27 UB was built in 1991 and since then this aircraft, which was in and out conservation a few times, get this--NEVER undergone any repairs. The only thing which was done to this 27 year old aircraft--it was repainted. Do I need to go any further in explaining what was going on? Apart from inevitable issue of US still not understanding what they got herself into in Ukraine. Another interesting note: as one of the former Ukrainian Rada MP's (Kilinkarov) stated, the US was not really trying to fly "Russian" technology against ancient Ukrainian S-300P, albeit this too was secondary objective. The main one was to study psychology of Russian pilots since Ukrainian military, in American mind, is very close psychologically to Russian one. 

I have some news for those "bright" minds in US who came to this idiotic conclusion. Putting obvious serious national psychological differences between Russians and what today passes as Ukrainian nation apart, thinking that there is a viable technological, tactical and operational similarity between Russia's state-of-the-art Air Force and esprit de corps which exists there, as Major Filipov's act of unprecedented heroism has demonstrated, and a junkyard, demoralized, utterly corrupt Ukrainian military, have to be done by absolute cretins. And here we come to Doctorow's "insight". Well, apart from the fact that leading Russian specialist in Ukraine Rostislav Ishenko would destroy Doctorow's statement in under ten minutes, and Ishenko knows Ukraine on several orders of magnitude more than Doctorow ever will, apart from objective factors of economic decay across the board in Ukraine, not to mention internal political dynamics, I have to point Mr. Doctorow's attention to the fact that Ukrainian military was capable to "exercise" with the representative of worshiped in Kiev US military in 27 year old un-repaired junk of an aircraft piloted by the guy who is obviously not fit to be a pilot both physically and, most likely, mentally is a first indicator of a pathetic state Ukrainian military is in and that is the first indicator of the actual state of Ukrainian economy and State of Ukraine as a whole. I will quote myself yet again:

Military power in humanity’s conflict-ridden history mattered, matters and will continue to matter as one of the main, if not the main, pillars on which national power rests. It remains the case that, in the modern world, first rate military power is a function of a first rate nation-state which possesses the wherewithal to have such military power. Great military power by definition is a continuation of a greatly developed, economically strong nation-state.    

I don't think Mr. Doctorow understands this crucial determinant but then again, trying to convey these things to humanities "educated" products of liberal economics is virtually impossible--it is simply beyond their grasp that the nation whose armed forces are in the state of implosion, including from desertion, drugs, alcoholism; are armed with mostly obsolete or altogether ancient weapon systems and themselves know damn well that the only strategic operation they will mount will mean their utter destruction--all this reflects quite well on the state of Ukraine than any, traditionally cooked, "statistics". So, Mr. Doctorow, Russians know the state of Ukrainian economy better than you on several order of magnitude more, especially since the catastrophic dynamics of depopulation of Ukraine was admitted by Ukraine's very own government and Russia is dealing still with masses of refuges from Ukraine, EU does this too. It is the nation whose only representation is (was) this old unmaintained Soviet-built jet fighter and fat pilot who inevitably crashed it, taking with him the life of an American pilot.  

Important Addition (10/19/18):       

The moment  I mentioned Rostislav Ishenko in this post yesterday, he published his latest precisely on Ukraine. As always, succinct and precise. It is in Russian, but I suggest using Google--it is worth reading.  
                          How Civilizations Die. 

On US Sanctions on Russia... Again!

US Congress finally "agreed" on measures punishing Russia for her blatant "interference in US 2016 elections" and that was expected from US political body which is corrupt to the core and whose main loyalties are to Israel. Even fake-news outlets are forced to admit that the measure is not much about Russia. After all, US legislators somehow forgot to put under sanctions US-Russian space cooperation--talk about having "firm" principles. No, the measure is about President Trump and of globalist cabal (neocons, "liberals" and so called Republicans) being desperate in trying to prevent any kind of rapprochement between US and Russia. This time, however, those sanctions, to which Russia adapts with unprecedented efficiency, ricocheted into EU. 

EU bureaucracy is even sleazier than Washington's one but, boy, do they get all alert and "principled" when the talk is about money! Now they are all up in arms against US Russia sanctions. Talk about getting hit where it truly hurts. I think they are getting pop-corn out in Moscow. Fascinating, really. Trump, most likely, will be coerced in signing the sanctions' bill but that wouldn't by now make any difference since the picture got clear to everybody who haven't spent last ten years under the stone. US is trying to bully EU to buy natural liquid gas from the US (hence efforts on part of Poland and Ukraine, controlled from D.C., in sabotaging Nord Stream 2), this gas will be much more expensive than that from Russia. 

Well, it doesn't matter much for Russia anymore. As was stated not for once, more sanctions mean stronger Russia. As scandal with Siemens gas turbines in Crimea has shown, Russia does not particularly care anymore about losing key European suppliers for the reasons of:

1. Being able to successfully develop own manufacturing (in Russian);

2. Having a number of other suppliers who would be glad to see Siemens leave Russia's market. 

In other words, Russia has options, plenty of them--EU doesn't and, for that matter, the US doesn't have them either. In the end, continuous sabotage of Russia merely prompts her to move even closer to East Asian markets and Russia's energy, machinery and hi-tech, especially weapons, are a very hot item there. Meanwhile anti-Russian hysteria in the West continues and now it did reach its crescendo with this paranoia--Russians slowly becoming a second class citizens and I will not be surprised that at some point of time they will have red stars sown to their clothes in a good Nazi tradition and will be herded into ghettos, after all, who knows what they mean when state that "lessons learned", never mind that combined West is not capable anymore of learning anything. As long as the world stays away from nuclear conflict, things should be alright.

  

Wait A Minute! Again?

History is often ironic. And in what one can only see as a grim historic irony, Afghanistan asked Russia for help: from economy to training and equipping Afghan military. Here we go again, don't we? Will Russia respond favorably to this request? Possibly, and this will be totally justified from the geopolitical point of view, but the times when Soviet Union built most of Afghanistan infrastructure for ideological and humanitarian reasons are gone. Today Russia likes to be truly compensated for what she does and this is the only way. Does Afghanistan have money to pay for Russia's services? Probably not. But some sort of compensation may be worked out and Afghanistan will have to provide some important geopolitical favors to Russia. In the end, Russians know damn well that in Afghanistan no matter how much good you do you will end being an enemy. As the summary of Paul Robinson's and Jay Dixon's book states:

    The Soviet Union provided Afghanistan with large-scale economic and technical assistance for nearly twenty-five years before invading in 1979 and then in- creased the volume of assistance even further during the 1980s in an effort to prop up the government and undermine the anti-Soviet insurgency. None of this aid made any lasting difference to Afghan poverty. As in so many other countries, foreign aid did not promote economic growth. Using unexplored Russian sources, this book describes and analyses the economic and technical assistance programs run by the Soviet Union from the mid-1950s through to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, and places them in the context of both Soviet-era development theories and more recent ideas about the role of institutions in fostering economic growth. In some respects Soviet development theorists were actually ahead of their contemporary Western counterparts in realizing the centrality of institution-building, but they proved unable to translate their theories into practical solutions. The reasons why their assistance programs failed so completely in Afghanistan remain compellingly relevant today.

I think Russia is not going to repeat mistakes of the past.