Wednesday, April 14, 2021

About Saving Face.

Alexander Mercouris gives a good explanation on the diplomatic situation around Ukraine and as I say and write for years: before any diplomatic moves always look at the military capabilities of the parties to this activity. 

As for NATO's build-up, it is merely a long-planned Defender-Europe 21 exercise whose timeline may have contributed to the Ukrainian stupidly with its own "build-up" and provocations, to make it look like a coordinated "effort". I can totally see those imbeciles in Kiev doing this and thinking themselves to be crafty. As Alexander correctly states, Russia, while having no desire to go all the way, especially having to take care of that shithole of a country which will fall into Russia's lap as a war trophy in case of real war, is ready for any contingency and that is the message, evidently, the West finally got. 

West, being culturally and politically superficial, is, obviously, all about the face and projecting outward of all kinds of pathlogies as a norm, so the projection of utter incompetence of its diplomacy and strategic planning is OK, in West's mind. Exposing that it is a domain filled amateurs and morons is not, even they understand that--they don't like to look weak and incompetent, despite these two being their defining traits. For the students of late Zbiginew Brzezinski pseudo-scientific geopolitical fantasies it took "merely" 20 years to figure out that Russia wants to be left alone but if need be, she will enforce this regime for herself. I am sure such a realization created a cultural shock when Brussels and D.C. started to suspect that Russia doesn't "want" Ukraine. What Russia wants is for this country to rot and implode without excrement from this implosion hitting Russia. West's paying for the clean up of this clusterfuck is also in Russian plans for Ukrainian Bantustan. 

It is a shocking development and revelation for the West since Brzezinski's geopolitical Bible revealed that Russia wants an empire and that such an empire is impossible without Ukraine. In fact, it was separation from Ukraine, and other freeloading former Soviet republics, which spurred Russia's revival. But then again....ahem. The "gas station masquerading as a country" with economy "left in tatters" and being "smaller than the economy of Spain". You all know the routine. But while at it:

The upward revision for Russia came as the IMF revealed a more optimistic forecast for the global economy amid vaccine rollouts. The fund now expects it to expand by 6% in 2021. The fund said that Russia’s fiscal policy was countercyclical in 2020. It also revised the figures for the crisis year, when Russia, like most countries, implemented lockdowns to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. According to its latest estimates, the Russian economy shrank 3.1%, not the previously reported 3.6%. “There will be some degree of consolidation in 2021 in line with economic recovery, and the deficit is likely to come back to the fiscal rule’s limit in 2022,” the IMF said.... The IMF improved projections for the Russian economy shortly after the World Bank did the same. However, the World Bank is less optimistic, projecting the country’s GDP to grow by 3.3% this year and 3.4% next year.

Well, just to give some comparison. Europe's "economic locomotive", Germany that is, sees the 28th month in a row of Germany's real economy (industrial processing and production) shrinking. That gives one a bit of insight into Russia's rather cool attitude to economic ties to Europe in a sense of seeing a rather grim mid to long-term picture of Europe's economy. So, here is the deal for today. 

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