Yet Another Reminder...

Recall what Russia said about sanctions and her trade in hydrocarbons--that if EU doesn't need Russia's gas, Russia will transfer refused volumes to Asia. Well, well, well... Bye, bye Europe, you wanted it. 

Supplies of Russian gas to China via the Far Eastern route will start in 2027, Gazprom CEO Aleksey Miller said on Friday, according to the company’s Telegram channel. The Far Eastern route will deliver supplies of Russian natural gas from the shelf off Sakhalin Island to China. Moscow and Beijing sealed an agreement for additional pipeline gas deliveries via the new route in February 2023. According to Miller, the Far Eastern route will have an annual capacity of 10 billion cubic meters (bcm) once fully operational. The project involves the construction of a cross-border section across the Ussuri River between the already operational Russian pipeline and the Chinese city of Hulin. “With the Power of Siberia and the Far Eastern route reaching full capacity, Russia will become the largest gas supplier to China,” Gazprom’s chief executive stated. Russia currently supplies gas to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline, a section of the so-called Eastern Route, under a bilateral 30-year agreement. Deliveries started in 2019, and the pipeline is expected to reach its full operational capacity of 38 bcm of natural gas annually next year, according to Miller.

But if that hasn't been enough. Get this:

Moscow and Beijing are also nearing a deal on the construction of a mega gas pipeline known as the Power of Siberia 2. It will transport up to 50 bcm of gas annually from the Yamal Region in northern Russia to China via Mongolia. Once all the pipelines are fully operational, the volume of Russian gas supplies to China could reach nearly 100 bcm annually.

So, EU can concentrate on buying American gas and continue building its "alternative" energy fantasy. Was (not) nice knowing you, Europe.

Is Viktor Orban Due To A "Democratic" Coup d'Etat?

Certainly looks like, because he seem to be not only successful in keeping Hungary warm and cozy, but also well fed and mentally normal. Recall my points about Hungary's position here and here. 

Russian energy giant Gazprom has increased gas supplies to Hungary via the TurkStream pipeline, a Hungarian official confirmed on Saturday. According to Foreign Ministry State Secretary Tamas Menczer, the Russian company stepped up flows to Hungary by 2.6 million cubic meters per day starting Friday and for the rest of August. The extra supplies are being delivered by the TurkStream pipeline that brings gas to Hungary via Serbia. “The Hungarian government had previously decided to purchase some 700 million cubic meters of natural gas in addition to the already contracted volumes,” the official posted in his Facebook account. Menczer added that the nation is currently in talks with Moscow about additional volumes for September. Hungary, which is about 85% dependent on Russian gas, is trying to bolster its reserves before the cold season. Budapest has been strongly opposing calls to introduce EU sanctions on Russian gas imports. The country’s prime minister, Viktor Orban, has also managed to secure an exemption from the bloc’s sanctions on Russian crude oil imports. 

But, of course, we are not simpletons here and we understand that geopolitical significance of all that is much greater than any economic, however important, considerations. Are there forces in Hungary which work against Orban and his government? Absolutely! They are well financed by EU and its intel outlets and they cannot take it not only in geopolitical terms, but also because inevitably Hungary will make a good living as intermediary between those in EU who want to survive and Moscow. And I mean a good living. That hurts the most against the background of a complete economic and mental collapse of Europe and this is just the start. So, is Orban a visionary? In some sense he is. Consider the background:

I will lie if I say that my heart doesn't bleed for simple vulnerable people--it absolutely does--but we live in a real world and thousands of Russian civilians have been killed as a result of criminal policies of European and US governments. There is always a price to pay and seeing Hungary getting what she needs easily (as was predicted) from Russia is, today, tantamount to rubbing salt in the wound. Will they, US and EU, try a coup in Budapest? I am almost 100% positive that they will, especially come the Autumn and Winter, when the whole house of cards will implode. And yes, Russia is not taking this turbine back until it is proven that this turbine is not covered by sanctions, which, of course, it is. As they say--you reap what you sow, and that opens the perspective of Moscow doing something similar to Erdogan operation in 2016, when, rumor has it, he was saved by FSB (or G(R)U). 

But today, it is Hungary getting what she needs from a pivotal country in emerging Eurasian economic and military colossus, and this one is not on the legs of clay. But in the long run, because of proper diplomacy and constant communications with Moscow, Budapest may add territories to Hungary and Viktor Orban will stop being a popular leader, he will become Hungary's legend. Do you think Kremlin doesn't understand that? Of course it does. So does Orban whose bet increasingly looks less and less risky but more and more wise.

Geopolitical Aikido.

Here is description of Aikido principles: 

Aikido's fundamental principles include: irimi (entering), atemi, kokyu-ho (breathing control), sankaku-ho (triangular principle) and tenkan (turning) movements that redirect the opponent's attack momentum.

A-ha, using opponent's attack momentum. Well, Vladimir Putin, a judoka of repute is a good friend with Steven Seagal who is 7th dan master of Aikido. Otherwise how can one explain this:

Western sanctions make it impossible to properly return a turbine for the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, Russian energy giant Gazprom claimed on Wednesday. The missing equipment has been the key reason for supply cuts. Siemens Energy CEO Christian Bruch earlier said that the German company had fulfilled all conditions for sending the repaired turbine back to Russia. According to Bruch, the company is “extremely interested” in advancing the process and blamed missing documents from the Russian side for the delay. “The sanctions regimes of Canada, the EU, the UK and the inconsistency of the current situation with the current contractual obligations on the part of Siemens make the delivery of the 073 engine to the Portovaya [compressor station] impossible,” Gazprom said on Wednesday.

To say that I laughed is to say nothing. Apart from geopolitical Aikido, this whole thing is also an Exhibit A of 80th level trolling.  Redirecting of the opponent's attack momentum(c). Of course, EU has a choice--it is SP2, LOL. But EU will have to utterly humiliate itself to accept this option. Well, what can I say--it is their problem, not Russia's. 

Look at the face of this man, you can see kind, good man in him, who always does what he says. And yes, he is really good at Judo, wink, wink. 

You Remember This Funny Song...

... by Shangri-Las (no, not the Leader of the Pack) Remember (Walking In The Sand), which was turned into global musical meme? Well, it is a perfect zeitgeist piece, courtesy of Tik-Tok:

First, Larry posts a superb piece by his friend Helmholtz Smith about basics of strategy--real strategy:

One of Napoleon’s observations is that you should never interrupt your enemies when they are making a mistake. Russians know this, not least because they were careful not to interrupt Napoleon himself in 1812. Putin and his team have had plenty of opportunities to meet NATO’s leaders, observe them, negotiate with them and assess them. It’s unlikely they’re very impressed. But when they started their “special military operation” in Ukraine they could never have dreamed how self-destructive NATO would be. What mistakes? First, the West has not shot itself in the foot with its economic sanctions – Hungary’s Viktor Orban is right when he observes that it has put a slug into its lungs. One can still limp along with a broken foot, but a shot to the lungs is pretty serious. Second, who in Moscow could have imagined that NATO would shovel its ammunition and weapons stockpiles into the Ukrainian black hole in the expectation that if they can get the latest wonderwaffe to General Steiner they’ll be in Moscow by Christmas. A good reason for Moscow to take it slowly – let the mistakes develop, compound and metastasize. It’s happening by itself. Naturally, inevitably, logically. No outside effort required. An unexpected bonus. Don’t interrupt.

Read the whole brilliant piece at Larry's blog. But in a continuous sped-up Shangri-Las denial, as if "oh, no, oh, no" may help, the real "Oh, No" begins to creep into the completely panicked West's ruling class minds:

Gazprom has declared force majeure on gas deliveries to at least one major customer in Europe, which would protect the Russian giant from compensation payments for unrealized deliveries, Reuters reported exclusively on Monday, quoting a Gazprom letter it had seen. Gazprom cannot fulfill its supply obligations due to “extraordinary” circumstances, says the letter dated July 14 and seen by Reuters. The force majeure Gazprom declares in the letter is about supply via Nord Stream, the key Russian gas export route to Germany, a trading source told Reuters today. This force majeure could further worsen the gas row between the EU and Russia, which has already slashed supply to major customers, including Germany and Italy. Russia claims a delay in the return of a repaired turbine due to the Western sanctions on Moscow prevents the reliable operation of a Nord Stream compressor station, for which the turbine was intended.

And the rumor has it--the deliveries may not resume at all, "Oh, no!" The rationing comes to Europe one way or another, and anyone who thinks that this is all, no--it is just the start. Biden's desperate (and disastrous) visit to Saudi Arabia. As James Kunstler reports:

The American news media gets briefed: Saudi Arabia graciously agrees to bump up its oil production somewhere in the 2025-2027 time-frame — a triumph for US diplomacy, the networks are informed. Air Force One wings home through clouds of despair. The White House team members spend the flight updating their resumés.

Well, let those cretins "cap" the oil price and see what happens. Today's market reacted to Biden's "triumph" in Saudi Arabia with the general growth of prices:

If they want oil to get around $180 per barrel and finally completely obliterate American economy, they surely can try. But so desperate their desire to not allow Russia "to finance SMO" from profits' windfall is that they may already have lost any inhibitions, multiplied by sheer incompetence across the board, that they will do it. But they need to do something immediately because Seversk today came under operational control of Russian forces (in Russian) and Mr. Ushakov, resonating with Lavrov's yesterday's article in Izvestya, stated that Kremlin doesn't see any desire from Kiev's regime and its puppeteers from the West to negotiate. And that means that conditions for negotiations may change (in Russian). Oh, no, oh, no, oh no-no-no-no...

Speaking of which. There is yet another British veteran, of Falkland War no less, who suddenly saw the light after being captured in Donbass and is now very sorry for serving with "Azov" Nazis, and wants to live. 

A British man, who fought alongside the infamous Neo-Nazi ‘Azov’ regiment in Mariupol, has asked London for help in a video published by a Russian journalist over the weekend. Identified as John Harding, the man says he would otherwise “face the death penalty.” “I would say to [UK Prime Minister] Boris Johnson, if you can help, if you can influence [Ukrainian] President Zelensky, if you can influence the president of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), or if you can influence [Russian] President [Vladimir] Putin, then please do,” Harding can be heard saying. The clip was posted by a correspondent with Moscow's Channel One broadcaster, Marina Kim, on her Telegram channel. “People’s lives are depending on this. So, if you can, please, help,” he adds, saying that “otherwise I face the death penalty. My friends face the death penalty.”

No shit, genius! Next thing we know he will be saying that he saw nothing, he heard nothing, he knew nothing when "Azov" thugs were killing, raping and robbing civilians. Hey dude, there are consequences for actions, didn't you know? It is called causality, a precise thing Western "elites" do not understand. Mr. Smith is on target with his "don't interrupt".  Or, as Shangri-Las sing:"Oh, no. Oh, no."  This is a primer for Monday.

Gazprom Doesn't Understand.

Everyone who follows real news today discusses this: 

Russian gas conglomerate Gazprom has received no confirmation of force majeure or any obstacles to continued transit of gas through a junction in Lugansk Region, the company said on Tuesday, after Ukraine’s operator OGTSU announced it would halt further deliveries starting May 11, due to the presence of “Russian occupiers.” Gas Transit Services of Ukraine (OGTSU) declared force majeure on Tuesday, saying that it was impossible to continue the transit of gas through a connection point and compressor station located in the Lugansk area. As OGTSU personnel “cannot carry out operational and technological control” over the Sokhranovka connector point and Novopskov compressor station, the company cannot continue to fulfill its contract obligations, it said. 

Well, truth is--Gazprom DOES understand, they just say that they don't in order to maintain a public record. But there is a force majeure which is behind 404 shutting off the valve. No, you didn't misread me, I mean it. Two components of this force majeure are:

1. An increasingly pronounced and accelerating collapse of VSU resistance, the signs of which are everywhere, not least through Larry Johnson's work in pointing out this:

There are a collection of videos, images and words scattered around various social media channels that paint a horrific picture of a Ukraine headed for defeat. While one must always consider the possibility that the Russians staged these videos and images, I think it is unlikely.    

Also, Zmeinnyi Island gamble "planned" in Pentagon encapsulated quite well the state of the affairs, when a truck load of VSU hardware and manpower was annihilated both over island itself and in preposition areas. I am on record: Pentagon will not out-think Russian General Staff. So, in general, that brings us to a second, component...

2. Which is THE force majeure which really matters and that one is for the United States. This is the main driver behind this "shutting the valve" thingy because, not only US "narrative" of Russia to be about conquered by glorious Kiev Nazis is falling apart, it is falling apart in a dramatic manner which exposes not only US weakness, both economic and military, but it also creates a huge sabotage undercurrent among US "allies" (you know, lap dogs), who are really not that enthusiastic about providing 404 with weapons anymore. Indeed, the story with German Gepard AD complexes is case in point.  Germany is ready to ship them (not that they will make any difference) but there is no proper ammo for them and Germany doesn't produce it anymore... so, you get the idea. 

So, the US decides to crack its whip and corral her "allies" into a proper place and show them what happens when they decide to even think about own survival. That is the main reason. You see, EU gets its energy supply turned off step-by-step by the US. This is the only war the US is any good at, blackmail and economic one, military one not so much, and it was inevitable that after the NS2 "closure", other energy supply routes would be cut off for Europe. And that is what we observe now. Democracy, you know, needs sacrifices. Germany is the first to go down, the rest will follow. Even morons at Oilprice get it:

A Russian Gas Halt Would Hit European, North Africa Economies

Right, but that is the whole idea, and Russia warned these European dumbfucks about it for years. That they are the US lunch in America's last ditch attempt to prolong her own agony of collapsing economy and increasing social chaos. So, there you are. Russia is not going to save Europe, but she surely wouldn't mind making a shitload of money from its death and she is already doing just that.  

UPDATE (of interest).  Unlike many Western unnamed sources from military-intel field, Russian ones, while definitely not being 100% correct all the time, have a much better record of "leaking" a reliable info. I doubt that Russian MoD wants to help Pentagon on this one, but here is the info:

МОСКВА, 10 мая. /ТАСС/. Приказ об атаке на остров Змеиный, в ходе которой украинские вооруженные силы понесли существенные потери, был отдан президентом Украины Владимиром Зеленским по совету британских консультантов, несмотря на возражения руководства ВСУ. Такие данные сообщил во вторник источник в российских силовых структурах."Приказ запредельно глупой атаки на остров Змеиный отдавал лично Зеленский и требовал добиться "медийного" результата к 9 мая", - сказал он. По словам источника, "есть подтвержденная информация о том, что [главком ВСУ Валерий] Залужный и его Генштаб были против этой самоубийственной операции, замысел которой Зеленскому подсказали его британские советники"."Финалом этой акции должно было быть совместное заявление о так называемой "перемоге" (укр. "победа") - британского премьера [Бориса] Джонсона и Зеленского, но в итоге выступал вчера только Джонсон, не упомянув ни словом о катастрофе операции по штурму Змеиного", - сообщил источник.

Translation: MOSCOW, May 10. /TASS/. The order to attack Serpent Island, during which the Ukrainian armed forces suffered significant losses, was given by the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky on the advice of British consultants, despite the objections of the leadership of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Such data were reported on Tuesday by a source in the Russian power structures. "The order for the incredibly stupid attack on Serpents' Island was given personally by Zelensky and demanded to achieve a" media "result by May 9," he said. According to the source, "there is confirmed information that [the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery] Zaluzhny and his General Staff were against this suicidal operation, the idea of ​​which was suggested to Zelensky by his British advisers." "The finale of this action was supposed to be a joint statement on the so-called" victory "(Ukrainian" victory ") - the British Prime Minister [Boris] Johnson and Zelensky, but in the end only Johnson spoke yesterday, without mentioning a word about the catastrophe of the operation to storm the Serpentine ", - said the source.

You know what? I believe this. Not taking anything away from heroism of, say, British and Polish paratroopers but this rings so familiar. Yes, Operation Market Garden. Monty (a man of some genuine military talents) being pissed off by Ike's, as Monty thought, "overly cautious" broad front strategy got to Ike (as Monty did to everyone else in SHAEF), and he literally squeezed from him his consent for the Market Garden. Monty wanted his own version of Blitzkrieg and Deep Operations and, boy, did this whole thing go down south from the inception and resulted in a very sad fate for the British 1st Airborne Division at Arnhem. This is a very British thing, to put it mildly, to try to pursue lofty objectives while not having required resources. 

So, to be objective, let's remove Pentagon as main planner behind Zmeinnyi (Serpent) Island debacle and bestow the dubious "honor" for this spectacular failure on British military. Pentagon, then, wisely sat this one out, not to mention the fact that it already has its hands full with its own, much larger, strategic debacle on the whole theater of operations in 404, not some separate "direction" or tactical episode. What do you expect, in the end, Zelensky is literally a clown, BoJo has degree in English Literature--what can possibly go wrong? (/s). 

What Can Be better Than Stealing?

More stealing! LOL, Germany wants to expropriate Russia-owned refineries in Germany. Now, Poland wants the piece of the action too. 

As Poland desperately attempts to restore the flow of Russian gas to the country, its government has ordered Russian Novatek to hand over pipeline infrastructure or face legal action amounting to infrastructure expropriation.  On Friday, a Polish government spokesman told the Associated Press that Russian Novatek Green Energy had been ordered to make its pipelines available to Polish companies and that failure to comply would mean legal action. Invoking crisis management laws, AP cited government spokesperson Piotr Mueller as saying that the fate of Novatek, Russia’s second-largest natural gas producer, “depends on whether this Russian firm, linked to Russia, will cooperate in the proper way …. whether the employees, acting on some instructions, will not be trying to block this process in some way”.

But, wait a minute, it was Poland, if my memory doesn't fail me, who wanted spot-pricing initially, which drove prices through the stratosphere,  and then Poland underscored at every opportunity her independence from Russian totalitarian gas. And now she is desperate. Oh my, such a Polish thing to do. Sure, let Poland cease the pipe-line, see what happens. Polish political top brass should recall a fundamental principle of any war, bet that hot, cold or merely economic. It reads like that: war is a very democratic affair--the enemy also has a say. 

Understanding this fundamental principle seems to escape the minds of EU "elites" and as the result each time they get slapped in the face by Russia they get hysterical and forget, in addition to other forgotten things, that normal governance, same as normal war-fighting, is done based on contingency planning. Russians do contingency planning 24/7 and the results are showing in the last 8 years. Here is another demonstration of spoiled children running Europe into he ground.

Members of the European Union are expected to agree on an embargo of Russian crude oil imports as early as next week, according to officials, in a move that would lay to rest a point of contention among its members. Such a measure has been discussed for weeks—with the United States adding pressure on the group to do its part to stop funding Russia with its payments for oil and gas supplies.The EU will continue to discuss the matter over the weekend, according to the New York Times, with the European Commission set to draft the finalized proposal to submit it to EU ambassadors for approval. Those ambassadors are scheduled to meet on Wednesday of next week, with final approval set to be delivered by the end of the week, anonymous EU officials told the New York Times.

Bloviation on the matters of "if Russia finds alternative buyers" is nothing more than verbal self-medication and PR. PR is the only thing Western "elites" are good at. Real governing and competent foreign policy--not so much. It is hard, one has to study hard, learn a lot and be incorruptible--a very tall order for both D.C. and Brussels. Plus, the news from the fronts in 404 are bad, really bad for NATO.  In fact, it is so bad, that great British mind, a strategist the likes of which world hasn't seen before to rise out of London, and who makes Winston Churchill and Disraeli look like amateurs, UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss called upon creation of "global NATO" and concluded with this:

The war in Ukraine is our war – it is everyone’s war because Ukraine’s victory is a strategic imperative for all of us.

So, quoting Harry Dunne from Dumb and Dumber (love this movie) in relation to this woman: "You know, Liz, just when I think you couldn't possibly be any dumber, you go and do something like this...and totally redeem yourself!" Indeed, what other peaks of sheer idiocy will those people summit before they succeed in creating a wonderful mix of Orwellian horror and Idiocracy slap-stick comedy.  Especially UK, who really provides as of lately a bulk of stupefying geopolitical cretinism, while being the nation in precipitous decline on all fronts and being noting more than America's chihuahua who is allowed to bark at guests at the party from master's lap. 

To demonstrate how bad are things for Kiev regime propped up by NATO? Here is Sladkov talking to Hero of Ukraine Evgeny Bova (In Russian).

Bova, a devout Nazi, Commander of the First Battalion of Marines of VSU, finds himself in an unfamiliar territory, that is being taken POW and that is why he still cannot completely grasp the fact that he is now merely an object and possibly some sort of exchange material for Medvedchuk. May be not. Here is yet another American freedom fighter, a former US marine, who went to 404 to fight those nasty Roosskies.

But evidently misunderstood a little bit the meaning of a real war, not some safari of shooting those "sand niggers", because Russian "snow niggers" (as The Saker loves to use such a taxonomy) are a bit different. The name of this guy is Joseph Cancel. A handsome guy, young, with wife and child left behind. What a waste. Can anybody explain to those guys that those Russian subhumans are not Iraqis or Afghan dehkans. Those primitive Rooskies have at their disposal excellent ISR complex and a lot of (and I mean a lot) high precision stand-off weapons, plus excellent artillery, including SMART munitions and other things which the US Armed Forces thought only they have. There is nothing romantic in being blown up by Iskander or be on the receiving end of X-101. I don't even speak about getting acquainted with Krasnopol munitions or being torn apart by Kornet's ATGM. So, now Western mercenaries begin to be killed and captured in wholesale numbers.

But one thing really caught my attention today. It is really disturbing to read because the rate of suicides, even considering a repair mode of any ship, is downright bizarre. 

As her one-year anniversary with the Navy approached last May, Hannah Crisostomo swallowed 196 pain relievers. Her organs shut down. Her brain swelled during multiple seizures and she stopped breathing. She was on life support for eight days, during which time doctors had warned her family that she may never regain normal brain functions. When Crisostomo woke up, she immediately wondered why she was still alive. Her thoughts grew more despairing during the next few weeks in the hospital and then in the Navy’s psychiatric ward. “If they keep me in the Navy, and they put me back in the same situation, I’m going to kill myself,” she recalled thinking, “and I’m going to be successful the next time.” That spring, Crisostomo, an aviation boatswain’s mate handler on the aircraft carrier USS George Washington, had been moved to night-shift repair duties. Amid disorganization on the ship during an extensive overhaul, Crisostomo said she was constantly berated for things out of her control.

Read the whole thing, it is both disturbing and stunning. The rate of suicides is atrocious and why? Because they have been forced to do duties on the aircraft carrier which is undergoing overhaul? Yes, these are also military duties, I am sure written in many manuals and many of those duties are not glamorous and involve often physical effort. They also involve dealing with noise, dirt, boredom and repetitiveness. The article, actually, makes a good point:

Smith disagreed when a sailor said living standards on the ship were not “necessarily up to par.” He said that the sailors get to go home most nights and that they were not “sleeping in a foxhole like a Marine might be doing.”

Excellent point. You have a cot, you have three hot square meals a day, snacks and, apart from traditional overhaul work-place risks of trauma, nobody shoots at you, let alone you are not under fire from artillery in some basement without water, heat and food. Try that for a change and see how the attitude will change. Could it be the case of a generation of Americans becoming absolutely soft mentally, entitled and unable to cope with even minor difficulties? This is military service, people, not a summer resort. I think that is precisely the case here, notwithstanding some legitimate complains about improving the department of "reasonable accommodation". So, this is your primer for Friday.

For "Financists".

I put quotation marks for a reason but make no mistake--I understand the importance of money for the economy, they are the blood of economy. But here is the problem about which I am on record for many years--unlike tangibles of agriculture, machines, healthcare and education, money, finances that is, whose properties can be described in purely materialistic terms, e.g. "this lathe is 50 years old but it still does the job and does it well", or "this dump-truck sucks, and is about to break, because...", you realistically cannot do this with money. 

Whether you like it or not, but money always carry with them a huge baggage of appropriated mythical qualities which are, unlike it was the personal case with Hank Hill who shed his tear for his truck by watching movie about the "death" of a tractor, money and their effect are omnipresent in human culture and are either extolled or condemned. In the end, Judas sold Jesus out for 30 silver coins, money that is, not for the new Ford truck or X-Box whatever the latest model. Remarkably, it is in the times of serious troubles when money lose all its allure and tangibles become more precious than money. What's the point of money when life-sustaining 125 grams of bread in Leningrad in 1942 could be received only by presenting the coupon (card--kartochka) and you couldn't buy it even if you wanted to no matter amount of money. What is the worth of money when your life depends on tourniquet and a vile of penicillin but you need it now to survive and no amount of money can buy you both, rather inexpensive items. 

You may say my examples are not precise, sure--I do not pretend to cover all bases. But for years I continue to drive this point home: money are just the medium of exchange and as such they are a derivative, however important, because they either have foundation of tangibles or they don't. Bretton Woods and US Dollar emerged primarily due to a fact that the United States in 1944 was the only country among world powers which not only hasn't been devastated by the War, but, in fact, benefited greatly from the war and in 1945 US economy was responsible for 50% of world's manufacturing in goods. Simple as that, anyone who tells you otherwise--they better get back to school and take a basic truthful course of the history of the 20th century. But now we live in the 21st. 

The US dollar is dealing with some of the same challenges that the British pound faced in the early 1900s, before it went into decline, Goldman Sachs said in a research note released on Thursday. The Wall Street bank warns that the greenback could lose its global dominance. According to the research seen by Business Insider, the move by Washington and its allies to freeze much of the Russian Central Bank’s foreign currency reserves has raised concerns that countries could start moving away from the dollar. Analysts explained the risk as due to worries about the power the dollar grants the US. The challenges that Goldman Sachs named include the fact that the US has a relatively small share of global trade compared to the dominance of its currency in global payments. Another issue is that the country has a deteriorating “net foreign asset position,” with rising foreign debts. In addition, the nation faces geopolitical problems, such as the conflict in Ukraine. The Goldman Sachs economists also said the nation’s large debts due to the fact that it is a big importer of goods could be a particular problem.

No shit, geniuses. How about you learn for warm-up what is the national power and how it is formed, before throwing our way all these contrived financial psychobabble and translate it into normal human language for the average Joe on the street, that the US economy is dwarfed by China's, that India, for all her problems is ticking up economically and will overtake the US fairly soon, that Russian economy is larger than that of Germany possibly two to three times, that the only thing which matters in the world is how large your economy is and what you produce and how you can defend your resources and sovereignty. And it goes without saying that the United States and its currency begin to fail across the board on pretty much any criteria. 

And then there is a power element to all this: Russia's massive resources are defended by one of the best armed forces in the world and massive arsenal of both nuclear and conventional high precision stand-off weapons. The United States cannot realistically fight conventionally Russia without sustaining catastrophic loses and immediately escalating to the nuclear threshold. Hence a hysteria about Ukraine and a complete butt-hurt propaganda about Russia "losing" in 404. This is not about caring about Ukraine, it is in full understanding that the US-established zero-sum game militarily with Russia is an excellent demonstration of how US proxies have their asses kicked starting from Georgia in 2008, to Syria and now, the last best hope of neocons, in Ukraine. Against the background of the US having zero prospects in Syria, having been pushed from Iraq and being utterly humiliated militarily in Afghanistan--the US doesn't seem that mighty and invincible, in fact the opposite is true and the world took note. 

The only chance for the US to fight China is on Indian Ocean's SLOCs, where the US Navy still holds the edge, primarily because of its submarine force, but China is building up and will eventually both mitigate her dependence on SLOCs and develop a serious naval deterrent. I don't want to even go into the discussion of the US pretending that it can fight PLA on the continent--this is not even funny. So, there you are. Now Borisov made an announcement that new State Order for Defense (GOZ) will include further robotization and deployment of direct energy weapons (in Russian). Always keep in mind this military aspect--it is what shapes geopolitics.  

Russia de facto introduced the gas Ruble, oil Ruble is coming because both Gazprom and Rosneft exited their EU subsidiaries and now have nothing to do with them--let Germany "nationalize" them (I guess one can always use additional office furniture and empty storage facilities) and now EU doesn't have contracts for gas and oil, since, before the latest events, contracts were signed with... and you have guessed it, EU subsidiaries of Gazprom and Rosneft which now haму no relation to either Gazprom or Rosneft. Good luck, EU, negotiating new contracts with Gazprom and Rosneft. I heard Gazprom Bank is a very good bank, and, most importantly, it is in Russia which precludes the repeat of West's standard procedure of robbing others, such as was freezing Russia's currency assets worth in excess of $300 billion. I know, for German "elites" who still view Russians as subhumans (old habits are difficult to get rid of) this whole thing is so humiliating but Europe made her choices. No contracts, no resources. What is the Euro worth now? And this is just the start. 

Now, we can go back to what I mentioned yesterday about Hungary and Slovakia becoming this proverbial window from EU in order to somehow satisfy its needs. Well, I am 100% sure both Hungary and Slovakia will be only happy to oblige because they have no problems with doing what is profitable for their countries and do not give a shit about ideology. This also explains the fact that Russians are in no hurry to return about 500 Boeing and Airbus planes leased by Russia's air lines and Russians are really stunned by sheer idiocy of the West which thinks that it can steal more than 300 billion USD from Russia and Russia will not retaliate. Those 500 commercial aircraft cover a large portion of $300 billion stolen from Russia and Russians will have no problem servicing them, because Russia has her own massive aerospace and adjacent to it industries capable to manufacture any spare parts. So, you see--physical economy is a very different game than currency speculation and stock trading, and even banking. It is what you have at hand which matters, not what you project. In the times of troubles this is absolutely true.

In related news, Russia continues to lose tremendously in 404, to such a degree that what's left of Marines 503 battalion of VSU (264 people) decided not to risk it anymore:

And surrendered. Good for them, LDNR will need all manpower it can get to restore Donbass cities and towns. Very many VSU POWs are already working clearing streets and rebuilding on the liberated territories. I mean those who were just grunts, Nazis have a very different fate for them. And this is the primer for Monday.

It Hurts Where It Matters The Most. Wealth.

Of course, money are important as are the prices. They are the reflection of actual economy, but the average Western "economist" today is a person who is removed from actual economy very far. Suffice it to say that modern managerial class in the West understands only the language of stocks, capitalization, futures and trades. They DO NOT understand how economy works. How else can you explain Europe's and, to a somewhat lesser degree, America's ongoing economic suicide. 

European power prices soared to records after Electricite de France SA said two nuclear reactors will stop unexpectedly and two will have prolonged halts -- just as the continent heads for a cold snap with already depleted gas inventories. German electricity for next year jumped more than 10% as EDF is set to shutter two reactors at its Chooz nuclear plant this week and extend halts of two units at its Civaux site until spring after agreeing with the safety regulator to replace faulty pipes. The facilities make up almost 10% of the French nuclear capacity.  The shutdowns will make the market even more jittery just as temperatures are set to plunge way below average for much of the continent. Peak demand in France alone is set to jump 7% to above 80 gigawatts next week, according to a Bloomberg model.  “The market is already very nervous and extremely sensitive, and the timing of this info could not have been much worse for market participants hoping for a drop in power prices,” said Bo Palmgren, chief operating officer at MFT Energy, a trading company is Aarhus, Denmark. 

Well, Russia did warn about this long time ago, nobody listened. Poland wanted "market" to decide prices on energy, as a result we have what Poland wanted--Gazprom laughing all the way to the bank because of the spot pricing, instead of the long term contracts with fixed price. Not that there is no a downside to this for Gazprom, because, obviously, the pricing not just squeezes, it kills EU customers. But for now, Gazprom already has pretty much returned its investment into the NS2 and really doesn't care what happens to NS2 at this point.

Berlin, December 15 - Neftegaz.RU. The price of natural gas in Europe on Tuesday rose to $1,400 per 1,000 m³ after Germany said Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline could not be greenlighted for launch, citing rising tensions on the Ukrainian border, RT has reported. The price of January futures on the TTF hub in the Netherlands rose 5.5% to $1,428 per 1,000 m³ at 7:04am GMT, or $138 per megawatt-hour in household terms, according to data from the Intercontinental Exchange. A day earlier, gas prices in Europe jumped around 10% after German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Russia’s newly constructed Nord Stream 2 pipeline could not be put in operation because it did not meet the requirements of EU energy law. 

To understand the scale of a calamity in Europe it is enough to look at this graph. 

So it is six and a half times growth of prices. As popular truism states--think twice what you wish for, your wish may come true. But in all this, well, let's call it for what it is--energy catastrophe in EU--there is one aspect which drives all those Western "analysts" from economy to geopolitics completely mad, in fact makes them desperate. It is the fact that it is not them but Russia which makes a shitload of money, which not only rubs the salt on the wounded egos of all those "strategists" and "analysts", but for geopolitical "analysts" complicates their openly anti-Russian, if not Russophobic, matters even more. That all means more money in Russian budget for social, industrial and military programs and the desperation is palpable. It manifests itself with a hysteria in the top political echelons of EU-NATO capitals, such as this legislature to declare Russia a "state sponsor of terrorism", to hollow promises by Stoltenberg that:

NATO expansion will continue whether Russia likes it or not, the US led bloc's Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has declared, insisting that despite Moscow’s objections, his organization does not pose a threat.  

At this stage one begins to understand why they fail all the time. I speak about it in my latest video:

But it is just a part of the answer why there are so many stupid people in West's "elites". One of the explanation is (which I repeat ad nauseam) the fact that many of them really bought into their own BS and sincerely believe that they are the best thing ever in the whole universe. Others, obviously are pushing their agenda, but because they are products of primarily humanities programs, especially political science, they have zero understanding of the world outside beyond white board theories and abstract models which do not work. Come on, let's face it--Bill Gates has no formal education, he dropped out of the second year of university and only sublime and complete idiots believe that he is a "self-made" billionaire. Some people believe that Elon Musk is an engineer, which he is not. He has B.S. degree (double major) in "economics and physics", I call it BS. It is NOT an engineering degree. But people want to believe. 

It is their right to believe that this guy with the undergraduate degree with double major in economics and physics is an engineer and these are not real (some of them really good) former and present NASA engineers with graduate and post-graduate degrees, certificates and experiences, who create those flying objects of SpaceX.  

In an affront to the West, Gazprom now got to another domestic project. It is not enough for Gazprom to have already highest skyscraper in Europe as its corporate office--a truly magnificent Lakhta Center.

 

Gazprom now works on the second highest tower in the world--Lakhta Center-2.

I am in no position to discuss failures or advantages of this new giant, but I would say that for all my lack of appreciation for skyscrapers, I would rather be in Lakhta-2 in dazzling St. Petersburg than in Burj Khalifa in the middle of a desert. But I totally get how these powerful symbols of wealth and power of Russia can drive many in the West completely nuts. I know for a fact what a visit to modern Moscow or St. Petersburg can do to many Westerners who get their news from CNN and Wall Street Journal. What many of them do not understand is that hydrocarbon business is increasingly not that crucial for Russian economy as it was even 10 years ago. But then again--you cannot explain it to them, they want to believe that they are the best, and the smartest, and the wealthiest, and the mightiest of them all. Right. Sour grapes and butt-hurt, anyone?