An Acute Case...

 ... of being sore losers. I kid you not. 

Two U.S. officials confirmed to Fox News Thursday that a Russian "experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile" (IRBM) launched at Ukraine was not hypersonic.

In fact, those were not missiles at all, I am sure. The US is finding new ways to humiliate itself every day. Mr. Smith wrote a superb piece for Larry's blog. I will quote him but read the whole thing at Larry's blog, where Smith gives incoming DJT some advice. 

The first is that America is not as powerful as you think it is. It wasn’t as powerful as you thought it was in your first term, but its weakness is much more obvious now. 20 years in Afghanistan gave Taliban an air force. The Houthis kicked the US Navy out of the Red Sea. Niger ordered the US and NATO out. The blank check for Israel alienates the world. The dollar is losing ground. Yuge failure. The second reality has come in the last four years. They’re not afraid of America any more. It’s not as scary, not as powerful and not as competent as they thought it was. It has dribbled away the reputation it had in 1945. Always at war, always losing. (Afghans! Houthis! Niger!) 800 bases around the world are 800 hostages. If American aircraft carriers don’t frighten the Houthis – why would they frighten China? Ukraine exposed the fraud. American/NATO weapons are boutique weapons – expensive, fragile and produced in tiny quantities. As your new Secretary of Defense can tell you, your generals aren’t warriors – they’re bureaucrats with MBAs dreaming of becoming sales reps for the MIC. “As long as it takes” isn’t very long. Send more weapons? What’s left to send? The “game changers” are defeated. You don’t have a big stick.

Enjoy Smith's eloquent style.Yes, Ukraine exposed the fraud.

Keep In Mind...

... that Trump's statements about quitting NATO, while creating a horrendous butt-hurt all around globalists stooges such as General (ret.) Clark who, I hope, attends some anger-management courses, are empty. And they shouldn't worry--this is Trump's shtick which he sells to MAGA crowd but which he will never implement due to him, in case of getting once more to the Oval Office, having no tool kit to change anything in the US. But that's what Trump does, being a true master of his word--he gives the word and then easily takes it back. Remember his "drain the swamp" thingy? There you go. The issue is much deeper than one or another political personality, because for the US to survive one needs totally different prescriptions. 

So, if that hasn't been enough, today's WSJ headline should scare the shit out of all of us:

Kamala Harris Says She Is Ready to Serve as Biden Faces Age Scrutiny. In a recent interview, the vice president cites her ‘capacity to lead’ after stops on her abortion-rights tour.

I am sure Joe will be really glad to hear these revelations from his VP and God helps us all if she becomes POTUS, which, as surreal as it seems, may come true considering conclusions by special counsel Robert Hur about POTUS.

Special counsel Robert Hur released a 388-page report last Thursday that concluded Biden “willfully” retained classified documents but cleared Biden of any wrongdoing. The report also featured details about the 81-year-old’s memory and recall, describing the president as a “sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.” Hur’s report claimed Biden did not remember “even within several years” when his son Beau died or when his vice presidential term ended.   

Well, this is a perfect epitome of what is happening to good ol' USA. I remember Brezhnev in early 1980s (he died in 1982), he was a battered man with poor health--the result of his actual heroism and concussions in WW II--but he died with clear mind as his close associates stated. His couple of slips in his last years cannot hold a candle to Joe fireworks of verbal embarrassment on a daily basis. Here is Brezhnev playing domino in Crimea not long before his death:

Can Joe do this? 

Meanwhile, Mr. Helmholtz Smith at Larry's blog succinctly expresses the current historic moment:

Now that the Ukraine war is dragging to a close and NATO is running out of willpower, money, guns, tanks and artillery shells, with shaky economies, unstable politics, too many angry farmers and new wars (domestic and foreign) to worry about, it’s time to remember just how it all began.

Easily, lightheartedly, stupidly –if you don’t know anything, everything looks easy.

False assumptions and false history explain how Washington and the NATO it controls got into this mess.

Excellent short read. You see, this is what happens when one confabulates own history. Or as James Madison said: a bad cause seldom fails to betray itself (c). So, this time has come.

This Now Gets Totally Surreal... Larry And Helmholtz Smith On SMO.

Larry posts Mr. Smith's excellent summary of NATO. It is short and to the point. It is also brilliant, enjoy it at Larry's blog:

THE REAL NATO BY HELMHOLTZ SMITH

Clarity is a gift. Then Larry explains a strategic miscalculation of the West.

Thanks to former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett we now know that Washington and London sabotaged diplomatic efforts to end the Special Military Operation in Ukraine. The West made the stupid bet that Russia could be defeated through a combination of economic sanctions, propaganda and military aid for Ukraine. The Americans and their NATO partners bet the lives of Ukrainians on their imperialist dream and now are becoming more desperate trying to fend off the looming defeat that confronts Ukraine and, by extension, NATO. The West has poked the Russian bear and are having great difficulty coming to grips with the reality that Russia is not impotent and Putin is not on his last legs. To the contrary, the failed Western strategy has awakened the Russians and cemented their resolve to defeat the NATO threat. Take a look at Putin’s recent remarks commemorating Russia’s victory at Stalingrad 80 years ago. It remains a fresh memory for the Russian people.

Well, the idiot Brzezinsky who prescribed a lot of catchy geopolitical BS to the US, never understood a simple fact of the chessboard, of which he pretended to know something, while being clueless, that even the pawn can mate the opposition when supported by proper heavy figures. But then again, can you imagine explaining the whole framework of geopolitical realities to a political "science" major from the US "academe"? There you go. 

But not to be outdone, Germany does this:

I mean this:

Bundesverteidigungsminister Boris Pistorius (SPD) ist zu einem unangekündigten Besuch in Kiew eingetroffen. Wie ein Sprecher des ukrainischen Verteidigungsministeriums sagte, traf Pistorius am Dienstag in Kiew den ukrainischen Verteidigungsminister Oleksij Resnikow. Resnikow veröffentlichte auf Twitter ein Foto, das ihn mit Pistorius und einem Panzermodell zeigte, und schrieb dazu: „Der ‚erste' Leopard-2 ist in Kiew angekommen.“ Die Ukraine soll nach Angaben von Pistorius von einer Gruppe mehrerer europäischer Länder mehr als 100 Kampfpanzer des älteren Typs Leopard 1A5 erhalten. Bis zum ersten oder zweiten Quartal 2024 sollten mindestens drei Bataillone damit ausgestattet werden, sagte er. Wenig später teilten Wirtschafts- und Verteidigungsministerium mit, dass Deutschland die Ausfuhr von bis zu 178 Kampfpanzern des Typs Leopard 1A5 in die Ukraine genehmigt. „Wie viele Leopard 1A5 Kampfpanzer tatsächlich an die Ukraine geliefert werden, hängt von den erforderlichen Instandsetzungsarbeiten ab“, heißt es in der Erklärung weiter. Zuvor hatten „Der Spiegel“ und Reuters berichtet.

Translation: Federal Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) has arrived in Kyiv for an unannounced visit. According to a spokesman for the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Pistorius met the Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov in Kyiv on Tuesday. Resnikov posted a photo on Twitter showing him with Pistorius and a model tank, and wrote: "The 'first' Leopard-2 has arrived in Kyiv." Older Leopard 1A5 Main Battle Tank received. At least three battalions should be equipped with it by the first or second quarter of 2024, he said. A little later, the Ministry of Economics and Defense announced that Germany approved the export of up to 178 Leopard 1A5 main battle tanks to Ukraine. "How many Leopard 1A5 main battle tanks will actually be delivered to Ukraine depends on the necessary repair work," the statement said. “Der Spiegel” and Reuters had previously reported.

This is Leopard 1A5. 

It is also an obsolete piece of shit not survivable on the modern battlefield and it features the lack of serious armor and the gun which, let's put it this way, is a little bit "outdated". 1A5 is a 1990 version of a 1960 tank and on the battlefield dominated by much more capable Russian tanks, BMPT Terminator and CAS all packed with extremely capable ATGMs, one can only conclude that Germany tries to be "slightly pregnant" under the circumstances when Russia views Germany as an existential threat. 

In an interview with the Bild am Sonntag newspaper published on Saturday night, Chancellor Scholz once again placed all of the blame for the conflict on Moscow, arguing that Russia’s “unprovoked aggression” justified the collective West’s intervention with military aid to protect the “European peace order.” “Together with our allies, we are giving battle tanks to Ukraine so that they can defend themselves,” Scholz argued. He added that Berlin “carefully weighed every arms shipment, closely coordinating… first and foremost with America.”

Then this cretin stated that he still wants to have relations with Russia. Of course, he forgot to ask Russia if she wants to have relations with Germany, but what the hell, he is a typical EU cuck who lives in a pretend world where there are no consequences for child's tantrums. Well, Germany went a little bit further than tantrum. As Russian journalist Marina Khakimova-Getzmaier , who lived in Germany for many years, wrote:

Современный среднестатистический немец – это мерзнущий сторонник ЛГБТ, отъявленный русофоб, запуганный агрессивной пропагандой. «Verboten!» – «запрещено!» – его любимое слово. «А то, что пока не запрещено, – уже не разрешено!» – на полном серьезе написала мне недавно одна моя немецкая приятельница. И предусмотрительно заблокировала мой телефонный номер. 

Translation: The modern average German is a freezing supporter of the LGBT, a notorious Russophobe, intimidated by aggressive propaganda. "Verboten!" - "forbidden!" is his favorite word. “And what is not yet forbidden is no longer allowed!” - in all seriousness, one of my German friends recently wrote to me. And as a precaution she blocked my phone number.

Well, Germany made her choice. Now Russia is making hers. Many do not like it, in a due time they will start crying and begging. Actually, it started already--welcome to the brave new world.

Helmholtz Smith Strikes Again...

 ... at Larry's blog and it is about strategy. 

I’ve been thinking about why this is so and I have come to the following conclusions. By now everybody who is paying attention knows that the Ukraine battlefield is part of a world war in which those who control the US empire are trying to hold onto their dominance. For those outside the NATO propaganda bubble there is general agreement that

1. Russia is winning both in the Ukraine battlefield and the wider theater.
2. Time is on Russia’s side.

First the Ukraine battlefield. The first aim in war is to destroy the enemy’s power and that Russia is doing, especially in the Bakhmut slaughterhouse. Kiev is determined to stand and fight here and the Russians are quite happy to let them do so – “artillery conquers and infantry occupies” – and that is what we see here. Slowly slowly the Russian forces advance over mountains of Ukrainian bodies. In the last week or so Russian forces have begun to advance on other fronts too. This grinding away can continue until Ukraine collapses because it is easier for the Russians to let the enemy come to them than go after them. Meanwhile Russian missiles destroy the infrastructure Kiev needs to continue the war. Time and developments favor Russia and there is no incentive to make “big arrow” movements.

Read the whole thing. I love this "big arrow movement"--brilliant. I also want to address this nagging issue of "brothers". Contemporary Ukrainian political nation is NOT any "brother" to Russia and Russians. Nobody gives a flying fuck in Russia about commonality of the blood. General Vlalsov was as Russian as they come. We need to stop this frivolous throwing around of this term "brothers". Modern Ukraine is not. Majority of those Ukrainians who are real brothers are already in Russia. Today, in Russian, the term "Ukrainian" has become a euphemism for Nazism and treason.

Oh, Come On!!

Why don't they say the REAL reason behind that. 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States aims to break the dynamic of grinding warfare and near-frozen front lines in Ukraine with newly announced military capabilities that it hopes will breath fresh momentum into Kyiv's battle against Russian forces, a senior Pentagon official said on Wednesday. But Colin Kahl, the Pentagon's top policy adviser, said the Pentagon still wasn't prepared to meet Kyiv's calls for gas-guzzling M1 Abrams main battle tanks. "I just don't think we're there yet," said Kahl, who had just returned from a trip to Ukraine. "The Abrams tank is a very complicated piece of equipment. It's expensive. It's hard to train on. It has a jet engine."

I don't know what was taught to this mysterious "senior Pentagon official", but it looks like he slept at all of his lectures in US Army War College on armored warfare and operational art. Granted this "senior official" is real and is not pulled out of the ass of some BSer from Reuters, who reported on that. But then, again, in the military culture where big mouth Patton is considered a tank genius while never facing in his life people the scale of Guderian, Mainstein, Model or Hoth, or, for that matter, Katukov or Rybalko, let alone Rokossovsky or Konev, who were way above Patton's rank and pay grade, but... sure--Strykers are going to do well against T-72B3s, let alone T-90Ms, not to speak of Russia's SMART munitions, right? If this anonymous "senior official" thinks so, then I am not surprised with Pentagon's "stellar" record of wars from Vietnam, to Iraq and Afghanistan.  

As Larry, very reasonably, assumed yesterday:

Not a lot of good news in Ukraine other than the United States and Europe are promising to send more weapons to a beleaguered Ukrainian army. I actually think the Russians are more delighted by this than Ukraine.  

Helmholtz Smith today reinforces this point and goes even further: 

Here’s what the Western MSM hasn’t told you. The Russian Armed Forces as such haven’t been much involved so far. Airborne at the beginning, some fast air and rotary wing, a lot of artillery throughout. But the big fighting has been done by the LDPR militias everywhere, Wagner at Bakhmut defense complex, Chechens in Mariupol. The big shoe hasn’t dropped. The Russian Armed Forces proper have 200,000 to 500,000 troops armed trained and equipped (lots of tanks – the latest T-90s are showing up). Will they complacently sit there watching Ukraine and NATO “demilitarize” themselves? Or is a “big arrow” offensive coming? It’s Moscow’s choice. The optimist can hope that the announcements of wonderwaffe that haven’t actually got to Ukraine are the exculpation that “we did everything we could” before the lift-off from Kabul Airport West. The pessimist can fear that NATO, when it finally gets to the bottom of the barrel and has cut its arms and legs off, will use the last weapon it has.

For pessimistic scenario, it seems, by the mood of Putin, Shoigu and Lavrov, not to mention Patrushev and Medvedev, all necessary messages re: the outcome for the US in case some will decide to go rogue, have been conveyed, including explanation of this ABM balance of power, especially against the background of Russian ABM capabilities which the US simply doesn't have. And that means a survival of enough professional Russians who will hunt down those who issued the "order" in the rubble of what will be left of the US. But, I think, the situation is closer to exculpation scenario. Plus, judging by intensity with which DNC and their whores in media begin to sink Biden, even they have had enough. Tucker seems to think so. 

But in the end, even crooks want to live, and when you fight Russia all out--you will be dead. I think this realization is dawning on many in Washington. And many, certainly, do not want to see a very large number of videos of M1 Abrams tanks burning in industrial quantities in 404, courtesy of Russian Armed Forces. Hey, I warned about it. I will repeat it again and will continue to repeat it as long as it takes. Eight years ago, almost to the day:

So, the events must run the course. But it is already clear that by failing to achieve any sensible political objectives in Ukraine and in Russia, and, by this, starting a massive global re-alignment, the United States sustained a defeat. What will be the consequences of this defeat? I hate to speculate, I just know that they are already big and that the moment of facing the reality is coming. 

I warned that Russians are very wrong people to fuck with when it comes to war and survival of the nation--this is more than millennium of conditioning by non-stop wars. It is genetic and they don't teach it in the Western universities. Certainly not in the International Relations departments in Ivy League schools for good ol' boys and girls, not that there are qualified people to teach the real foreign policy there, anyway.

Mr. Smith Tells The Truth.

In fact, it is almost obvious but it is worth reminding many people what is at stake. Helmholtz Smith speaks to people at Larry's blog, but he speaks to and for a very large minority of people of good will, common sense and morals. 

A lot of the people who comment on this blog seem to me to be patriotic Americans. And, it’s clear, if you read the comments, that many of them – probably the majority – want Russia to win the war. This is not because they like Putin or Russia particularly, and certainly not because they’re on the “Putin payroll”. Not at all. These people understand what is really at stake. These are people who know that the American war party (one of many names – deep state, borg, neocons, one percent, MICIMAC) is responsible for pushing Russia to the decision that it made last February. That it is the war party that expanded NATO despite the promises, that arms Ukraine, that encourages the fanatics driving that country, that blocks all routes to a peaceful settlement, that encourages Kiev to squander the lives of its people. But what really concerns these patriotic Americans is the damage the war party has done to their country.

Read the whole thing at Larry's blog. If you ask me if Kremlin understands this I can confidently say that it is absolutely true, and from the start of SMO this has been articulated non-stop, but many people still do not get the message. I will remind you again the immortal epic poem by Alexander Tvardovsky titled Vasily Tyorkin. Again, as in the times of the Great Patriotic War these lines ring true. 

 

         Бой идет святой и правый.

         Смертный бой не ради славы,

         Ради жизни на земле.

The battle goes on, holy and righteous

A deadly battle not for glory

                       For life on Earth

 As Smith concludes his excellent piece:

Russia is also fighting a bigger war against the so-called rules-based international order. This shiny label covers the assertion that whatever America and its allies/subordinates do is right and whatever its opponents do is wrong and is the war party’s license to interfere everywhere. The hope is that the defeat – following on the Afghanistan debacle – will so weaken the war party that it will fall. This far I have talked of patriotic Americans wanting Russia to win but I believe that every country in the West has people who also want Russia to win because utter, obvious and undeniable defeat is the only way that they can see to get their leeches off their backs. The West is ruled by corrupt fools who are sending it to disaster – it is circling the drain of history. The hope is that Russian victory will burst the bubble, the internal enemy will be got rid of and these countries will start to mind their own business, care for their own populations and forget about the (mostly imaginary) monsters out there.

Difficult to disagree. I went to Barnes and Noble today. On the shelves of the Current Events section (40% of the books in it have the word "democracy" in their titles) I saw this book:

This piece of pseudo-academic excrement was written by a genocidal maniac, war criminal and a human marked with physical ugliness which underscored her ugliness internal, which harks back to the methods and views of genocidal maniacs and demagogues who populated corridors of power of the Third Reich. And from which the family of a Jewish girl from Prague, Jana Korbelova, the actual name of this now dead harpy, was saved by Serbs, who she "paid back" by bombing them in 1999. It is symptomatic that the BS concocted by this maniac reached NYT Best Seller list--this tells you everything you need to know about leeches Smith writes about. American establishment "intellectual" elite is dead, the whole intellectual class is largely dead but the time of reckoning is here. And some of them can hear the rumble of the inexorable march of history. Let them shake in fear.

Mr. Smith Speaks...

 At Larry's blog:

The primary purpose of war is the destruction of the enemy’s ability to resist. That is a long process – weapons and ammunition destroyed, supply routes blocked, war production stopped, political will broken. And it’s a bloody process – the enemy’s soldiers must be killed or maimed. Clausewitz –

Fighting is the central military act… The object of fighting is the destruction or defeat of the enemy… Direct annihilation of the enemy’s forces must always be the dominant consideration.

Why “dominant consideration”? Simple – once you have destroyed the enemy’s power, you can do anything you want. Take territory without destroying power? Not so good. One may wonder whether this is understood at West Point given the number of TV generals who say Russia is losing because it’s given up territory and was “defeated” in Kiev. Don’t they remember that the US took Kabul and Baghdad quite early? That didn’t end either of those wars, did it?

Yes, this fabled Clausewitzian "compelling the enemy to do our will"(c). Or, as Generalissimo Stalin stated:"If the enemy doesn't surrender--it is annihilated", quoting Maxim Gorky from his 1930 article in Izvestia about class struggle. Stalin used this quote in February 23, 1942 Order #55 for Red Army. Very appropriate and very... Clausewitz. Read the whole thing at Larry's blog, including his excellent review of the "Dirty Dozen" concept:

Count me amused by the Westerners voicing shock and outrage over the fact that Russia is using a group of former convicts to help fight the new Nazis in Ukraine. This was not Putin’s unique idea. He obviously is a Lee Marvin fan:

In relation to Mozart Group, however, it has to be understood that they can teach very little to VSU since it is absolutely unique truly modern continental war and it is beyond the experiences of the American military. I want to stress--I am not talking about some tweaking of the Field Manuals, I am talking about a completely new approach to the opponent which in some crucial types of weaponry--Air Defense, Stand Off Weapons and EW is simply better, sometimes much better that the US military itself. Per Rogozin's wound--I hope he learned his lesson of not celebrating his birthday in the front-line city filled with Kiev's regime sympathizers and intel assets. He can "congratulate" himself now with the fact that, while he was lightly wounded, a few people, including his security guard, got killed. This IS the difference between military and intel professionals and, however smart, civilian leadership. Professionals would never do what Rogozin did, because they are honed and "endeared" to the idea that their professions are ones of the closest to death and probability of being killed, especially in operational and combat zones is very high. Now he learned, I hope.

Untrustworthy By Mr. Smith.

In Larry's blog:

Russian has a rather complicated adjective недоговороспособны (nedogovorosposobny) for which there isn’t any good English equivalent. Literally it means something like “not together in speaking to find a way”; the clumsy English word used is not-agreement-capable. The meaning is “you can’t make an agreement with them and, even if you could, they’d break it”. The Minsk agreements were negotiated between Kiev and the breakaway regions of Lugansk and Donetsk with two variants in 2014 and 2015. In essence they agreed to a ceasefire and the start of negotiations on some form of autonomy for Lugansk and Donetsk inside the borders of Ukraine. The second version had big involvement by France (President Hollande) and Germany (Chancellor Angela Merkel) – they were its guarantors. Russia’s role was to force Lugansk and Donetsk to the table (they would have preferred independence or joining Russia.) The agreements never took effect.

The question is, is Merkel stupid? She is, certainly, not bright and... very provincial. Now, one-cell armchair "strategists", primarily people who read at best RT, begin to talk about how Putin was duped. He was not, and the best proof of this are Russian media since 2015 which documented quite well how Ukraine was being prepped by NATO, as well. So, for people who do not know how the control of such country as Russia is done, it is impossible to explain to them that even the progress of SMO is proof that Kremlin knew it all along. 

I speak about it in my video today:

I will repeat again: the way Russia plans strategically is beyond modern West's experiences at the very top, let alone among laymen. And yes, Russia hasn't been ready in 2014 to face-off with combined West. She is ready and doing it now.

Mr. Smith Looks At The Whole Picture.

Larry posted a great piece by Helmholtz Smith. After setting up a strategic framework, Smith concludes:

PREMONITIONS OF WHAT?

In short, the Western plan is not working. The sanctions cost the West more, it’s running out of weapons to send and there are signs of softening. If Moscow’s plan was to move slowly and wait them out, then it’s working.

One should not rule out the possibility of a negotiated settlement and it may be that NATO realizes in time that it has painted itself into a corner from which that is the only exit. But it’s hard to see, given all the hyperbole, how the West’s present rulers could admit to such an enormous failure. Electoral replacement, while happening, is too slow. And why would Moscow ever trust anything the West says? A unilateral surrender by Kiev is possible but the only way I could see it is if Zelensky were overthrown. Therefore I rate a negotiated ending as not impossible at the moment but of very low probability. But time is on Russia’s side and October’s improbability may be March’s desperate desire.

More likely to me is, to use a World War II analogy, that now that Kiev’s Operation Citadel in the Kursk Salient is petering out, it’s time for a really powerful mechanized offensive accompanied by strikes deep in the rear with no holding back. One must remember that Putin said they hadn’t really started – I think we’re about to see what he meant. And sooner, I would guess, rather than later. I can’t imagine that anyone in Moscow wants this thing still going on next February.

It is a great piece, especially in illuminating a background of it all and reminding, that Ukraine is just one piece of a truly global puzzle. Per those echelons, saw them myself--huge number of armor and other equipment is being moved by Russia. This is from yesterday--150 kilometers from Ukraine's border. 

Pay attention to the combat modules (turrets) on these BTR-82s, could it be BTR-82AT with BTR-BM module?

I will not be surprised. And yes, the number of such trains since September 20th is astounding. Saw a huge one today in Crimea--tanks...

I Already Touched On It In My Video...

... today, but I will reiterate by posting these screenshots from today:

Or this:

Just a brief review of headlines tells you everything you need to know, because these are headlines of economic collapse, albeit for now reflected only in terms of finances and stock market which, although not a real economy, can serve as a digest to panic which grips the "elite", because for many of them it will mean more than just financial losses. The reason being of many people "on the top" facing some very unpleasant things like... like... hm being hunted down by some angry people (wink, wink)? 

But, of course, these are all only partial manifestations, because the whole West's "planning" continues to fly out the window since Western elites have no clue about anything:

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) says Russia's war in Ukraine, now in its eighth month, will have a greater impact on the global economy than previously expected. The OECD said on September 26 that it had slashed its growth forecast for the global economy to 2.2 percent in 2023 from a previous estimate of 2.8 percent."The world economy is paying a high price for Russia’s unprovoked, unjustifiable, and illegal war of aggression against Ukraine," the OECD said in a regular report updating its economic outlook.

Ah, poor-poor dears--this is what happens when you study "economics" and "political science" in all those prestigious "schools" in the modern West. The issue, of course, is much deeper and much more complicated than "growth", much of it merely by cooking books--the main subject taught at Ivy League economic departments--but it is the issue of geopolitical realignment which is wiping out the last myths of West's dominance and exposes its complete degeneration. 

At this moment I am still trying to process, because it is difficult to grasp in purely professional military terms, this BS about "response" to Russia "using nuclear weapons in Ukraine", because it is so beyond normality that it is difficult to put a finger on a particulars in this sheer insanity and desperation.  The only thing which comes close to this absurdity is, of course, fabled methods of defense by chicken lawyer from Futurama:

 

Which, in some weird way, reflects the thinking process of people in Washington and I want to immediately point out that I am not on the side of those who think that all this sheer insanity is deliberate. No, not at all, there is no plan, there never was, they are that stupid. As Mr. Helmholtz Smith points out at Larry's blog:

Crashing Russia will be easy. It doesn’t make anything – gas station masquerading as a country. rapidly aging and shrinking population – Weak Country with a Nuclear Arsenal – Russia’s Weak Strongman – Russia’s Strength Is Its Weakness. And lots more where those came from. As Hitler said, just one kick – stop buying their gas, they’ll hang Putin and come crawling back. Our rulers have been surrounded for years by people telling them this. Anyone who said that Russia has a big and very self-sufficient economy, that Putin is quite popular and at least half of his critics think he’s too soft, that money from gas sales to Europe are nice but there are lots of other customers, that you can’t be secure unless the other guy feels secure – what happened to them? You know the answer. They never got the chance to tell the bosses this and they never got in the door. And, when they did say these things – on the fringes far away from “trusted sources” and “fact checkers” – they were condemned as Putin apologists and their social media accounts were blocked. After all you can’t give a platform to disinformation when there’s so much real information from real experts like Martin Walker who told us in 2006 “But strategically, Russia’s real weaknesses are getting worse and its non-oil economy is lagging ever further behind its Indian and Chinese rivals.” Stupid or smart, the bosses were only told one thing by everyone who got to them and year after year they ignored all the counter evidence. That’s stupid. But it’s pleasing, especially to mediocre minds, to be told that you’ve got both might and right in your corner and your skillful management and nuanced understanding deserve another pay raise. For years, the same old stuff, over and over amplified and repeated – just one kick.

Or as Forrest Gump used to say--“Stupid is as stupid does.” Systemic collapse in progress, anyone?

You Remember This Funny Song...

... by Shangri-Las (no, not the Leader of the Pack) Remember (Walking In The Sand), which was turned into global musical meme? Well, it is a perfect zeitgeist piece, courtesy of Tik-Tok:

First, Larry posts a superb piece by his friend Helmholtz Smith about basics of strategy--real strategy:

One of Napoleon’s observations is that you should never interrupt your enemies when they are making a mistake. Russians know this, not least because they were careful not to interrupt Napoleon himself in 1812. Putin and his team have had plenty of opportunities to meet NATO’s leaders, observe them, negotiate with them and assess them. It’s unlikely they’re very impressed. But when they started their “special military operation” in Ukraine they could never have dreamed how self-destructive NATO would be. What mistakes? First, the West has not shot itself in the foot with its economic sanctions – Hungary’s Viktor Orban is right when he observes that it has put a slug into its lungs. One can still limp along with a broken foot, but a shot to the lungs is pretty serious. Second, who in Moscow could have imagined that NATO would shovel its ammunition and weapons stockpiles into the Ukrainian black hole in the expectation that if they can get the latest wonderwaffe to General Steiner they’ll be in Moscow by Christmas. A good reason for Moscow to take it slowly – let the mistakes develop, compound and metastasize. It’s happening by itself. Naturally, inevitably, logically. No outside effort required. An unexpected bonus. Don’t interrupt.

Read the whole brilliant piece at Larry's blog. But in a continuous sped-up Shangri-Las denial, as if "oh, no, oh, no" may help, the real "Oh, No" begins to creep into the completely panicked West's ruling class minds:

Gazprom has declared force majeure on gas deliveries to at least one major customer in Europe, which would protect the Russian giant from compensation payments for unrealized deliveries, Reuters reported exclusively on Monday, quoting a Gazprom letter it had seen. Gazprom cannot fulfill its supply obligations due to “extraordinary” circumstances, says the letter dated July 14 and seen by Reuters. The force majeure Gazprom declares in the letter is about supply via Nord Stream, the key Russian gas export route to Germany, a trading source told Reuters today. This force majeure could further worsen the gas row between the EU and Russia, which has already slashed supply to major customers, including Germany and Italy. Russia claims a delay in the return of a repaired turbine due to the Western sanctions on Moscow prevents the reliable operation of a Nord Stream compressor station, for which the turbine was intended.

And the rumor has it--the deliveries may not resume at all, "Oh, no!" The rationing comes to Europe one way or another, and anyone who thinks that this is all, no--it is just the start. Biden's desperate (and disastrous) visit to Saudi Arabia. As James Kunstler reports:

The American news media gets briefed: Saudi Arabia graciously agrees to bump up its oil production somewhere in the 2025-2027 time-frame — a triumph for US diplomacy, the networks are informed. Air Force One wings home through clouds of despair. The White House team members spend the flight updating their resumés.

Well, let those cretins "cap" the oil price and see what happens. Today's market reacted to Biden's "triumph" in Saudi Arabia with the general growth of prices:

If they want oil to get around $180 per barrel and finally completely obliterate American economy, they surely can try. But so desperate their desire to not allow Russia "to finance SMO" from profits' windfall is that they may already have lost any inhibitions, multiplied by sheer incompetence across the board, that they will do it. But they need to do something immediately because Seversk today came under operational control of Russian forces (in Russian) and Mr. Ushakov, resonating with Lavrov's yesterday's article in Izvestya, stated that Kremlin doesn't see any desire from Kiev's regime and its puppeteers from the West to negotiate. And that means that conditions for negotiations may change (in Russian). Oh, no, oh, no, oh no-no-no-no...

Speaking of which. There is yet another British veteran, of Falkland War no less, who suddenly saw the light after being captured in Donbass and is now very sorry for serving with "Azov" Nazis, and wants to live. 

A British man, who fought alongside the infamous Neo-Nazi ‘Azov’ regiment in Mariupol, has asked London for help in a video published by a Russian journalist over the weekend. Identified as John Harding, the man says he would otherwise “face the death penalty.” “I would say to [UK Prime Minister] Boris Johnson, if you can help, if you can influence [Ukrainian] President Zelensky, if you can influence the president of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), or if you can influence [Russian] President [Vladimir] Putin, then please do,” Harding can be heard saying. The clip was posted by a correspondent with Moscow's Channel One broadcaster, Marina Kim, on her Telegram channel. “People’s lives are depending on this. So, if you can, please, help,” he adds, saying that “otherwise I face the death penalty. My friends face the death penalty.”

No shit, genius! Next thing we know he will be saying that he saw nothing, he heard nothing, he knew nothing when "Azov" thugs were killing, raping and robbing civilians. Hey dude, there are consequences for actions, didn't you know? It is called causality, a precise thing Western "elites" do not understand. Mr. Smith is on target with his "don't interrupt".  Or, as Shangri-Las sing:"Oh, no. Oh, no."  This is a primer for Monday.

Larch Defines Moral Point, Larry's Friend Defines Strategy.

Our very own Larchmonter445 captured the moral essence of SMO for Russians in his excellent post which I bring here. Speaking of Medvedev he notes:

He knows the existential threat is real. This isn't transitory. It's for all the marbles. This is why he classifies the 'soft' as 'traitors'. You can't have a middle position when the enemy is coming to exterminate you and your nation. When guys like DM and Naryshkin sound strident, then you know all of Moscow, all of Mother Russia is aware of the dire threat. The people swiftly understood when the videos of the shooting and throat-cutting of captured Russian boys went viral. The red line had been crossed. Ukraine and NATO have to be defeated. Victory has been defined.

In the same time, Larry's friend Helmholtz Smith delivers an excellent strategic argument:

A 2019 RAND study (Overextending and Unbalancing Russia), like most Western plans erected on the whim that Russia’s economy “is comparatively small and highly dependent on energy exports”, saw Ukraine as “[Russia’s] greatest point of external vulnerability”. That assumption is now being tested and it doesn’t look as if it’s Russia that has been sucked into the Ukrainian quagmire. After 100 days of war Russia controls, to quote Ukrainian President Zelensky, about 20% of Ukraine’s territory and is inflicting 500-600 casualties per day. The Russians are methodically grinding the Ukraine Armed Forces out of existence. And it’s unlikely that they are suffering many casualties – for them the shells are going out, for the Ukrainians the shells are coming in.

Read the whole thing (superb, I may add) at Larry's blog. I will try to make a video tomorrow on the issue of both losses and operations of 4 SU-57 which have confirmed by Ria as fully netcentric (in Russian), and effective against Ukie Air Defense.