You Remember This Funny Song...

... by Shangri-Las (no, not the Leader of the Pack) Remember (Walking In The Sand), which was turned into global musical meme? Well, it is a perfect zeitgeist piece, courtesy of Tik-Tok:

First, Larry posts a superb piece by his friend Helmholtz Smith about basics of strategy--real strategy:

One of Napoleon’s observations is that you should never interrupt your enemies when they are making a mistake. Russians know this, not least because they were careful not to interrupt Napoleon himself in 1812. Putin and his team have had plenty of opportunities to meet NATO’s leaders, observe them, negotiate with them and assess them. It’s unlikely they’re very impressed. But when they started their “special military operation” in Ukraine they could never have dreamed how self-destructive NATO would be. What mistakes? First, the West has not shot itself in the foot with its economic sanctions – Hungary’s Viktor Orban is right when he observes that it has put a slug into its lungs. One can still limp along with a broken foot, but a shot to the lungs is pretty serious. Second, who in Moscow could have imagined that NATO would shovel its ammunition and weapons stockpiles into the Ukrainian black hole in the expectation that if they can get the latest wonderwaffe to General Steiner they’ll be in Moscow by Christmas. A good reason for Moscow to take it slowly – let the mistakes develop, compound and metastasize. It’s happening by itself. Naturally, inevitably, logically. No outside effort required. An unexpected bonus. Don’t interrupt.

Read the whole brilliant piece at Larry's blog. But in a continuous sped-up Shangri-Las denial, as if "oh, no, oh, no" may help, the real "Oh, No" begins to creep into the completely panicked West's ruling class minds:

Gazprom has declared force majeure on gas deliveries to at least one major customer in Europe, which would protect the Russian giant from compensation payments for unrealized deliveries, Reuters reported exclusively on Monday, quoting a Gazprom letter it had seen. Gazprom cannot fulfill its supply obligations due to “extraordinary” circumstances, says the letter dated July 14 and seen by Reuters. The force majeure Gazprom declares in the letter is about supply via Nord Stream, the key Russian gas export route to Germany, a trading source told Reuters today. This force majeure could further worsen the gas row between the EU and Russia, which has already slashed supply to major customers, including Germany and Italy. Russia claims a delay in the return of a repaired turbine due to the Western sanctions on Moscow prevents the reliable operation of a Nord Stream compressor station, for which the turbine was intended.

And the rumor has it--the deliveries may not resume at all, "Oh, no!" The rationing comes to Europe one way or another, and anyone who thinks that this is all, no--it is just the start. Biden's desperate (and disastrous) visit to Saudi Arabia. As James Kunstler reports:

The American news media gets briefed: Saudi Arabia graciously agrees to bump up its oil production somewhere in the 2025-2027 time-frame — a triumph for US diplomacy, the networks are informed. Air Force One wings home through clouds of despair. The White House team members spend the flight updating their resumés.

Well, let those cretins "cap" the oil price and see what happens. Today's market reacted to Biden's "triumph" in Saudi Arabia with the general growth of prices:

If they want oil to get around $180 per barrel and finally completely obliterate American economy, they surely can try. But so desperate their desire to not allow Russia "to finance SMO" from profits' windfall is that they may already have lost any inhibitions, multiplied by sheer incompetence across the board, that they will do it. But they need to do something immediately because Seversk today came under operational control of Russian forces (in Russian) and Mr. Ushakov, resonating with Lavrov's yesterday's article in Izvestya, stated that Kremlin doesn't see any desire from Kiev's regime and its puppeteers from the West to negotiate. And that means that conditions for negotiations may change (in Russian). Oh, no, oh, no, oh no-no-no-no...

Speaking of which. There is yet another British veteran, of Falkland War no less, who suddenly saw the light after being captured in Donbass and is now very sorry for serving with "Azov" Nazis, and wants to live. 

A British man, who fought alongside the infamous Neo-Nazi ‘Azov’ regiment in Mariupol, has asked London for help in a video published by a Russian journalist over the weekend. Identified as John Harding, the man says he would otherwise “face the death penalty.” “I would say to [UK Prime Minister] Boris Johnson, if you can help, if you can influence [Ukrainian] President Zelensky, if you can influence the president of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), or if you can influence [Russian] President [Vladimir] Putin, then please do,” Harding can be heard saying. The clip was posted by a correspondent with Moscow's Channel One broadcaster, Marina Kim, on her Telegram channel. “People’s lives are depending on this. So, if you can, please, help,” he adds, saying that “otherwise I face the death penalty. My friends face the death penalty.”

No shit, genius! Next thing we know he will be saying that he saw nothing, he heard nothing, he knew nothing when "Azov" thugs were killing, raping and robbing civilians. Hey dude, there are consequences for actions, didn't you know? It is called causality, a precise thing Western "elites" do not understand. Mr. Smith is on target with his "don't interrupt".  Or, as Shangri-Las sing:"Oh, no. Oh, no."  This is a primer for Monday.

Gazprom Doesn't Understand.

Everyone who follows real news today discusses this: 

Russian gas conglomerate Gazprom has received no confirmation of force majeure or any obstacles to continued transit of gas through a junction in Lugansk Region, the company said on Tuesday, after Ukraine’s operator OGTSU announced it would halt further deliveries starting May 11, due to the presence of “Russian occupiers.” Gas Transit Services of Ukraine (OGTSU) declared force majeure on Tuesday, saying that it was impossible to continue the transit of gas through a connection point and compressor station located in the Lugansk area. As OGTSU personnel “cannot carry out operational and technological control” over the Sokhranovka connector point and Novopskov compressor station, the company cannot continue to fulfill its contract obligations, it said. 

Well, truth is--Gazprom DOES understand, they just say that they don't in order to maintain a public record. But there is a force majeure which is behind 404 shutting off the valve. No, you didn't misread me, I mean it. Two components of this force majeure are:

1. An increasingly pronounced and accelerating collapse of VSU resistance, the signs of which are everywhere, not least through Larry Johnson's work in pointing out this:

There are a collection of videos, images and words scattered around various social media channels that paint a horrific picture of a Ukraine headed for defeat. While one must always consider the possibility that the Russians staged these videos and images, I think it is unlikely.    

Also, Zmeinnyi Island gamble "planned" in Pentagon encapsulated quite well the state of the affairs, when a truck load of VSU hardware and manpower was annihilated both over island itself and in preposition areas. I am on record: Pentagon will not out-think Russian General Staff. So, in general, that brings us to a second, component...

2. Which is THE force majeure which really matters and that one is for the United States. This is the main driver behind this "shutting the valve" thingy because, not only US "narrative" of Russia to be about conquered by glorious Kiev Nazis is falling apart, it is falling apart in a dramatic manner which exposes not only US weakness, both economic and military, but it also creates a huge sabotage undercurrent among US "allies" (you know, lap dogs), who are really not that enthusiastic about providing 404 with weapons anymore. Indeed, the story with German Gepard AD complexes is case in point.  Germany is ready to ship them (not that they will make any difference) but there is no proper ammo for them and Germany doesn't produce it anymore... so, you get the idea. 

So, the US decides to crack its whip and corral her "allies" into a proper place and show them what happens when they decide to even think about own survival. That is the main reason. You see, EU gets its energy supply turned off step-by-step by the US. This is the only war the US is any good at, blackmail and economic one, military one not so much, and it was inevitable that after the NS2 "closure", other energy supply routes would be cut off for Europe. And that is what we observe now. Democracy, you know, needs sacrifices. Germany is the first to go down, the rest will follow. Even morons at Oilprice get it:

A Russian Gas Halt Would Hit European, North Africa Economies

Right, but that is the whole idea, and Russia warned these European dumbfucks about it for years. That they are the US lunch in America's last ditch attempt to prolong her own agony of collapsing economy and increasing social chaos. So, there you are. Russia is not going to save Europe, but she surely wouldn't mind making a shitload of money from its death and she is already doing just that.  

UPDATE (of interest).  Unlike many Western unnamed sources from military-intel field, Russian ones, while definitely not being 100% correct all the time, have a much better record of "leaking" a reliable info. I doubt that Russian MoD wants to help Pentagon on this one, but here is the info:

МОСКВА, 10 мая. /ТАСС/. Приказ об атаке на остров Змеиный, в ходе которой украинские вооруженные силы понесли существенные потери, был отдан президентом Украины Владимиром Зеленским по совету британских консультантов, несмотря на возражения руководства ВСУ. Такие данные сообщил во вторник источник в российских силовых структурах."Приказ запредельно глупой атаки на остров Змеиный отдавал лично Зеленский и требовал добиться "медийного" результата к 9 мая", - сказал он. По словам источника, "есть подтвержденная информация о том, что [главком ВСУ Валерий] Залужный и его Генштаб были против этой самоубийственной операции, замысел которой Зеленскому подсказали его британские советники"."Финалом этой акции должно было быть совместное заявление о так называемой "перемоге" (укр. "победа") - британского премьера [Бориса] Джонсона и Зеленского, но в итоге выступал вчера только Джонсон, не упомянув ни словом о катастрофе операции по штурму Змеиного", - сообщил источник.

Translation: MOSCOW, May 10. /TASS/. The order to attack Serpent Island, during which the Ukrainian armed forces suffered significant losses, was given by the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky on the advice of British consultants, despite the objections of the leadership of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Such data were reported on Tuesday by a source in the Russian power structures. "The order for the incredibly stupid attack on Serpents' Island was given personally by Zelensky and demanded to achieve a" media "result by May 9," he said. According to the source, "there is confirmed information that [the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery] Zaluzhny and his General Staff were against this suicidal operation, the idea of ​​which was suggested to Zelensky by his British advisers." "The finale of this action was supposed to be a joint statement on the so-called" victory "(Ukrainian" victory ") - the British Prime Minister [Boris] Johnson and Zelensky, but in the end only Johnson spoke yesterday, without mentioning a word about the catastrophe of the operation to storm the Serpentine ", - said the source.

You know what? I believe this. Not taking anything away from heroism of, say, British and Polish paratroopers but this rings so familiar. Yes, Operation Market Garden. Monty (a man of some genuine military talents) being pissed off by Ike's, as Monty thought, "overly cautious" broad front strategy got to Ike (as Monty did to everyone else in SHAEF), and he literally squeezed from him his consent for the Market Garden. Monty wanted his own version of Blitzkrieg and Deep Operations and, boy, did this whole thing go down south from the inception and resulted in a very sad fate for the British 1st Airborne Division at Arnhem. This is a very British thing, to put it mildly, to try to pursue lofty objectives while not having required resources. 

So, to be objective, let's remove Pentagon as main planner behind Zmeinnyi (Serpent) Island debacle and bestow the dubious "honor" for this spectacular failure on British military. Pentagon, then, wisely sat this one out, not to mention the fact that it already has its hands full with its own, much larger, strategic debacle on the whole theater of operations in 404, not some separate "direction" or tactical episode. What do you expect, in the end, Zelensky is literally a clown, BoJo has degree in English Literature--what can possibly go wrong? (/s).