Showing posts with label sanctions.. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sanctions.. Show all posts

Monday, September 8, 2025

It Changes Absolutely Nothing.

 You cannot repair the country in its death throes. 

The French government has fallen after Prime Minister Francois Bayrou lost a crucial confidence vote in parliament on Monday. Bayrou is the second consecutive prime minister under President Emmanuel Macron to be ousted, throwing the nation into political and economic turmoil. A no-confidence motion in the National Assembly requires at least 288 votes to pass. Monday’s motion received 364 votes, with the left-wing New Popular Front and the right-wing National Rally uniting in opposition to end a months-long standoff over Bayrou’s austerity budget. Having previously survived eight no-confidence motions, Bayrou called this vote himself, in a bid to secure backing for proposals that forecast almost €44 billion ($52 billion) of savings to ease France’s debt burden before the budget is presented in October. The prime minister, who has repeatedly warned that France’s national debt poses a “mortal danger” to the country, appeared to acknowledge his fate. In a bitter remark on Sunday, Bayrou lashed out at rival parties that he said “hate each other” yet joined forces “to bring down the government.” 

It doesn't matter who  the next government will be--France is going to disintegrate, part of it being due to neoliberal policies, part of it due to murdering the indigenous culture, other part--due to French national character, which still cannot resign itself to the position of the second rate country. Meanwhile:

На внеочередном онлайн-саммите БРИКС участники обсудили глобальные вызовы и акцентировали внимание на необходимости реформирования системы мирового управления. По итогам мероприятия пресс-служба президента Бразилии опубликовала сообщение, в котором отмечается, что страны блока провели комплексную оценку текущей международной ситуации, передает РИА «Новости». В результате достигнут консенсус о необходимости перехода к более справедливому, сбалансированному и инклюзивному международному порядку. В заявлении отмечается, что новый порядок должен лучше отражать происходящие преобразования и эффективнее реагировать на нужды глобального Юга. Как писала газета ВЗГЛЯД, президент России Владимир Путин принял участие во внеочередном саммите БРИКС в режиме видеосвязи. Встреча завершилась обсуждением экономического партнерства между странами объединения в ответ на тарифные меры США. 

Translate: At the extraordinary online BRICS summit, participants discussed global challenges and focused on the need to reform the global governance system. Following the event, the press service of the President of Brazil published a statement noting that the bloc countries had conducted a comprehensive assessment of the current international situation, RIA Novosti reports. As a result, a consensus was reached on the need to move to a more just, balanced and inclusive international order. The statement notes that the new order should better reflect the ongoing transformations and respond more effectively to the needs of the global South. As Vzglyad newspaper wrote, Russian President Vladimir Putin took part in the extraordinary BRICS summit via video link. The meeting ended with a discussion of the economic partnership between the countries of the association in response to US tariff measures.

So, that is why Russia is not impressed with the West, especially against the background of Valery Gerasimov's 70th birthday. I explain this, and why Zakharova is correct when talking about Kallas being "critically uneducated"--it applies to all of them--in my latest video which should be up shortly.

Sunday, September 7, 2025

Patrushev Is Not "Hinting" ...

 ... he says it directly. 

«Однозначно речь идет о диверсионном акте, выполненном на весьма профессиональном уровне. Уничтожение участка подводного трубопровода — сама по себе достаточно сложная задача, особенно если требуется максимально незаметная работа без привлечения специально оборудованного судна. В случае ''Северных потоков'', очевидно, эту задачу решала высококлассная команда диверсантов, обладающих большим опытом работы на значительных глубинах и в непростых гидрологических условиях Балтийского моря»,— убежден он. По словам Николая Патрушева, «далеко не каждая армия или спецслужба в мире имеет в своем составе пловцов, способных грамотно и, самое главное, скрытно реализовать подобную акцию». «Одна из спецслужб, способная выполнить эту задачу,— знаменитая британская Специальная лодочная служба. Это одно из старейших военно-морских диверсионных подразделений, которое заявило о себе во время Второй мировой войны,— отмечает Николай Патрушев.— Кстати, сейчас предпочитают не вспоминать, что буквально накануне подрыва «Северного потока» в этом районе Балтики проводились учения ВМС НАТО».

Translation: "We are clearly talking about an act of sabotage carried out at a very professional level. Destroying a section of an underwater pipeline is a difficult task in itself, especially if it requires the most undetectable work without the use of a specially equipped vessel. In the case of Nord Stream, this task was obviously carried out by a highly qualified team of saboteurs with extensive experience of working at significant depths and in the difficult hydrological conditions of the Baltic Sea," he is convinced. According to Nikolai Patrushev, "not every army or special service in the world has swimmers in its ranks who are capable of competently and, most importantly, covertly carrying out such an action." "One of the special services capable of carrying out this task is the famous British Special Boat Service. This is one of the oldest naval sabotage units, which made a name for itself during the Second World War, notes Nikolai Patrushev. By the way, now they prefer not to remember that literally on the eve of the explosion of the Nord Stream, NATO naval exercises were conducted in this area of ​​the Baltic.”

He correctly states that German "version" of sabotage is "ridiculous", which it is, but then again--anything coming out of West's establishment media is ridiculous by default and is nothing more than propaganda. Such as this piece of dung from WSJ:

It is one of the daily reminders that US establishment has NO serious experts in Russia, warfare and economics. You cannot fix it--the system itself is utterly corrupted and non-functional. Per dynamics of SMO--yet another "volunteer" has been kidnapped from the streets of 404 and now will be disposed of at the line of combat contact.

In related news which are not news but repetition of the same shit over and over again:

President Donald Trump said he was ready to sanction Russia after Moscow launched its largest air attack against Ukraine since the start of the war on Sunday, setting Kyiv’s government headquarters on fire and killing at least five, including one infant. Forty-four more were injured in the attack that the Ukrainian Defense Department said included over 800 Shahed-type strike drones; 9 Iskander-K cruise missiles; and 4 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, which hit residential apartments and set ablaze the building where the Cabinet of Ministers convenes.

The destruction (rather minor, all things considered) and fire have been caused highly likely by SAM of whatever is left in terms of Patriots or whatever else in Kiev--the only place which has some pathetic remnants of missile AD in 404. 


Yes, as you might expect--infants are a normal presence in Council of Ministers building everywhere. So, sanctions, yes--Russia is quaking in her boots. But Kiev does look somewhat ... smoky today. 

The SMO continues. 

Friday, May 16, 2025

Yes, He Has.

Hey, he is the greatest deal maker, we know this. Have those bimbos from all those media find a real job, like washing dishes at Denny's? 

Trump has a lot of ‘leverage’ in Russia-Ukraine peace talks, Middle East special envoy says. Deputy special envoy for the Middle East Morgan Ortagus discusses Russia-Ukraine peace talks and U.S.-Iran relations on ‘America Reports.’ 

Morgan Ortagus is dumb as a stump and except for well made up appearance she has nothing to sell. Her "military background" is that of a low tactical level NCO (as is that of Pete Hegseth) and is not applicable for warfare nor for serious intelligence, but she fits well into Fox's bright bimbo visuals and Trump already stated today that he will impose new sanctions on Russia. Hey, with advisers like this DJT will drive the US into the ground much faster than even I could have foreseen. At this stage, the US has to simply remove itself from this charade as "mediator" in 404 and admit what Rubio already did--the US is a belligerent in its war against Russia and Russian people and it is a second rate military power with nukes. It is a Trump's war and it is too late now. 

And yes, the guy is a complete cretin. 


Tuesday, January 7, 2025

Points Of Interest.

Yes, this is a great interview of Colonel Macgregor to Judge, but Judge's quip about Air Force and Army at 28:50 is as hilarious as it is accurate))


Now to a point that Acqua brought to our attention and that fits extremely well in my thesis that American "realists" are nothing more than collection of American exceptionalists--a euphemism for imperialists--with milder more aesthetically acceptable manners. These were and are the guys who played all along into the narrative of Russia's weakness and decline (no, Mearsheimer is not alone marked with this dubious distinction) which created the impression among uncultured and badly educated Washington establishment that it can fight and win a war against Russia. Now, that the outcome of the SMO (I stress again--Operation) is not (it never was) in doubt for the combined West, we have one of those "realist" outlets which is adorned in its writing staff with such amateurs and Russophobes as Anatol Lieven and others coping with the outcome. They wet dream, they wet dream big and here is a wowser from the (former) academic staff of the US Naval War College by Lyle Goldstein. Goldstein proposes to Trump Administration: 

Since Donald Trump’s reelection, his campaign promise to quickly end the Russia-Ukraine War has seemed increasingly out of reach as the situation in Ukraine continues to deteriorate. It's hard to imagine that dispatching more arms to Ukraine and slapping more sanctions on Russia will be successful at achieving peace. The Russian army continues its slow but steady advance, so Putin may well have concluded that his country should push for a more complete Russian military victory and defy any near-term Western peace overtures. However, the incoming administration has an opportunity to break from the status quo and entice Russia to end the war. This should include incentives with respect to the Arctic — an issue guaranteed to capture Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attention. Such an option could also prove attractive to Trump, who approaches the world through the lens of a businessman looking to strike big deals.

Putin’s participation in a November ceremony launching the new nuclear icebreaker Chukotka elicited little notice in the West but demonstrated the Russian president’s laser-like focus on developing the Arctic region. The vessel is reported to be the largest and most capable icebreaker in the world at 567 feet in length and displacing 33,500 tons, with two nuclear reactors that provide 350 megawatts of power, allowing it to break through ice nearly 10 feet thick.

Such ships do not come cheap, and the Chukotka is priced at about half a billion dollars. The Chukotka is the fourth in a series of nuclear icebreakers, with another of the same class, the Yakutia, also nearing completion and a fresh keel due to be laid down in 2025. In October, an even more ambitious class of nuclear icebreakers received the green light for production in a shipyard near Vladivostok, costing $1 billion, an astronomical sum in today’s Russia.  The destination of the icebreakers is the Northern Sea Route (NSR), a shipping route that runs north of Russia and connects Western Europe to the Asia-Pacific. This year, a variety of new records have been set in the NSR, including for the largest ever container ship, which traversed the NSR in September, and the most oil ever transported. 

For starters, I have news for Goldstein: 

1. Do not measure anything Russia produces in US Dollars--it is a fool's errand, a method invented by the white board academic frauds from the Wall Street and Ivy League economics departments, precisely the thing which brought about geopolitical defeat of the combined West which turned out to be military and economic paper tiger.

2. $1 billion, while a large sum of money, is by no means something dramatic or astronomical for Russia and her budget. E.g. non-existent and over budget (and already delayed) US Navy's new SSBN of Columbia-class WILL cost around $9-10 billion per a single sub, for the same price Russians already built EIGHT (5 operational, 3 getting ready) state-of-the-art SSBNs of Borei-class, which carry weapons which make SLBM Trident -II D5 look like a backwater. 

Goldstein should know this, he taught at the USNWC. In the end, it is a respectable educational institution. And then there are THESE guys. 

And not only--Russia's Arctic research and development programs dwarf anything combined West can even dream about--after all; it is all about capability. Goldstein does refer to them, somewhat ... but then arrives to a completely out of the blue conclusion about North Sea Route (NSR). 

Yet despite incremental progress, Chinese and Russian analysts are aware that the Arctic passage will never achieve its true potential without Western backing.

What? I understand where Goldstein comes from and not all of it is bad, but that is a complete delusion. In fact, the growing Russia's military presence in Arctic, including both ground and naval component, is designed precisely to prevent the West from any "backing" of the Arctic passage. Russians know damn well what "true potential" of this passage is and are going it alone. Not to speak of the fact that Trump "lifting sanctions" on Russia (he was the one who boasted about being the most "anti-Russian President" in his first term) is altogether from a parallel universe. Russia is done with the West, period. Combined West lies, cheats, steals and will continue to do so and the only conversations with it is possible with these things in the background. 
Or these 
Or these. 
These are the only things that matter, no matter what Trump's plans are. He lied again today about "negotiations" with Putin (in Russian). He cannot live a day without self-aggrandizing. 

Friday, June 28, 2024

Yet Another Reminder...

Recall what Russia said about sanctions and her trade in hydrocarbons--that if EU doesn't need Russia's gas, Russia will transfer refused volumes to Asia. Well, well, well... Bye, bye Europe, you wanted it. 

Supplies of Russian gas to China via the Far Eastern route will start in 2027, Gazprom CEO Aleksey Miller said on Friday, according to the company’s Telegram channel. The Far Eastern route will deliver supplies of Russian natural gas from the shelf off Sakhalin Island to China. Moscow and Beijing sealed an agreement for additional pipeline gas deliveries via the new route in February 2023. According to Miller, the Far Eastern route will have an annual capacity of 10 billion cubic meters (bcm) once fully operational. The project involves the construction of a cross-border section across the Ussuri River between the already operational Russian pipeline and the Chinese city of Hulin. “With the Power of Siberia and the Far Eastern route reaching full capacity, Russia will become the largest gas supplier to China,” Gazprom’s chief executive stated. Russia currently supplies gas to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline, a section of the so-called Eastern Route, under a bilateral 30-year agreement. Deliveries started in 2019, and the pipeline is expected to reach its full operational capacity of 38 bcm of natural gas annually next year, according to Miller.

But if that hasn't been enough. Get this:

Moscow and Beijing are also nearing a deal on the construction of a mega gas pipeline known as the Power of Siberia 2. It will transport up to 50 bcm of gas annually from the Yamal Region in northern Russia to China via Mongolia. Once all the pipelines are fully operational, the volume of Russian gas supplies to China could reach nearly 100 bcm annually.

So, EU can concentrate on buying American gas and continue building its "alternative" energy fantasy. Was (not) nice knowing you, Europe.

Wednesday, November 29, 2023

Very Good Summary.

Alexander uses a good term--liberating. Spot on. 

This is exactly what Putin said today to the congress of young scientists. 

Translation:  “Our so-called – at least that’s what we called them – partners thought that they had hooked us on such a technological needle and we would never get off it. And thanks to the efforts of people like you, your colleagues, it turned out that this is possible. And not only is it possible, but it happens quite quickly.”

Difficult to add anything to it.  

Saturday, May 6, 2023

Larry On Prigozhin, Scott On Russia.

Larry wrote excellent piece on Prigozhin's histrionics. As good CIA analyst Larry presents three possibilities. 

Read the whole thing because it is an excellent food for thought piece. But there is a fourth possibility, which Lt. Colonel Oleg Shalandin, Vera and me discussed today with a huge caveat that Prigozhin's histrionics may and most likely will now cost him a lot. Especially after distasteful video with Wagner's KIAs. The fourth possibility being the fact that he may be removed from Wagner's control because, in the end, Wagner is a commercial corp initiated by Russia's Defense Ministry and Prigozhin, methinks, overstepped. Keep in mind that "suddenly" General Mizintsev is IN Wagner and as Oleg described him--he is an outstanding general, very competent and his "retirement" may, actually, be the sign of Wagner being in the process of "whipping in shape". It is clear that Akhmat is now in process of deployment to Artemovsk to finish off mopping up or the remnants of VSU.

Meanwhile, Scott travels across Russia with his new book and that is what he has to say about "sanctions".

Yes, sanctions aren't working against Russia. In fact, they accelerate Russia's economic development. On the other hand, sanctions inflicted an immense pain on combined West and now we see cracks all over Western-run institutions ranging from NATO, to EU, to what have you.

Thursday, May 20, 2021

Bernhard Is Furious, And Rightly So.

Bernhard of Moon of Alabama is furious with Glenn Greenwald and rightly so.

B's fury is entirely justified. Recall what I wrote few years ago about US "realists". I merely qualified them as yet another iteration of the American exceptionalists. Even American "realists" still operate on the utterly false basis of the American omnipotence and God-given right to decide what to do and how to do it, including making decision for others, denying them any subjectivity and the right to decide for themselves. 

As I wrote yesterday, and B confirms it, US dropping sanctions on Nord Stream 2 is a result of Germany finally having enough of the US meddling into Germany's affairs, especially having, for Germany, an existential significance, once one considers Germany's industrial and living energy costs being one of the highest in the world. Yet, Greenwald, evidently thinks that the US "granted" Germany the right to have NS2 completed this year. This is a very wrong way to rub German business. But then again, recall John Mearsheimer, one of the foremost US realists talking couple of years ago about Russia as having economy the size of Texas (or Spain, or Netherlands, what have you) and "mediocre" Armed Forces. This is not an exception, this is a feature of American "realists". They still think that the United States controls the world and is the one which grants everyone the right to exist.This is a complete delusion. 

American circumstances today are dire--both economically and politically, with country losing fast its weight and influence globally and being, for the lack of better word, a complete fvcking mess internally, surviving only on printing a shitload of money which already run a serious inflation. Reputational losses are altogether a whole other story ripe for truckload of Ph.D theses to be written on that issue. It took Germany merely an act of a serious talking to the United States and threatening with actions--some of them could include a complete reorientation towards Eurasian projects--that the US got the message that not only it may lose its main vassal, which is trying to break the bonds of vassalage as we speak, but any serious prospects in Europe. Now imagine US worst nightmare: Berlin-Moscow-Beijing axis and a much faster coalescence of the colossal Eurasian space into a unified market. That removes the US immediately to the rank of the regional powers and to the fringes of what evolves already into the engine of global economic and civilizational development. 

This will happen one way or another, but at least, as the US thinking goes now, this will be a somewhat protracted process once Germany's demands re: NS2 are accepted and the sanctions are dropped. This, as they think in D.C., buys the US a little bit more time but it also marks a rather significant inflection point in the post-Soviet history of Europe when Germany stated her interests clearly and exhibited a will to defend them and the United States caved in. Let's be honest, with Russia's support behind the scene. And those ARE Germany's interests because Germans are the ones who finance a huge share of NS2 project. Who gave the United States the right to decide for Germans, or, for that matter, anyone else how they are supposed to live and solve their internal problems? And Germany, sure as hell, has a shitload of problems, many of them of own making, but it is what it is. Things change, ever so incrementally, until they accumulate into a qualitative shift and this is exactly what we observe today in the US-German relations. 

But, as I said--Zugzwang, ladies and gentlemen. You observe here a classic case of Zugzwang and of a black belt level geopolitical Judo (or Aikido). Well, Putin and Steven Seagal are personal friends, I am sure Steven has shown his martial arts buddy some Aikido moves. But in the end, these are German people who have the right to decide how they want to live and run their country and no one has the right to deny them this opportunity. It is also crucial for Germany in the long run if it wants to get well after a long and nightmarish globalist slumber. Germany is not a country in the Middle East or in Central America, which could be sneezed at by the US and it seems Germans begin to get a feel of that.

Thursday, February 4, 2021

Civilizational Difference.

A little piece of news this morning. Recall new Russian Constitution, which sets precedence of Russia's laws over international ones. It also defines marriage as that between the man and the woman. You know, the Article 72 Para G1. 

This morning Vladimir Putin signed the Law on Constitutional amendments as applied to Family Code of Russian Federation (in Russian). Yep, about preserving a traditional family and telling others to go and screw themselves if they don't like it. Constitution of Russia trumps any international law if international law contradicts said Constitution. Sir Elton John got sad now. As I always say, when you have national security establishment such as Russia has, it is not difficult to tell others what you think about them. Speaking of which--I am considering writing about Russia's soft power which flies under the radar of many Western objective observers and I am not talking about such outlets as RT. In related news, as NYT reports, there is a sanction fatigue in D.C. No shit, pardon my French: 

At this stage, it is absolutely redundant discussing how those sanctions not only failed but exposed America's weakness vis-a-vis Russia. As per this Navalny (known in Russia as Analny and Sissyan, he DOES have tits) fellow, who is at the center of new West's Russo-phobic hysteria, today this jerk will be delivered to the court again to listen to another--more are coming--indictment on slandering the veteran of Great Patriotic War. And then, some time later, he will also be charged with being an intelligence asset of foreign state and that, folks, is a treason issue. So, all in all, he will spend a rather hefty time behind bars, which will allow him to learn a real trade, such as sowing, and, finally, will consummate his handle of Analny within penitentiary environment. 

Of course, many Ambassadors from Western counties, who attended his initial hearings in court are free to volunteer to join him in penitentiary and share experience of this uncompromising fighter with Putin's corruption and castles and backwardness of Russia, which, for some unknown reason, doesn't want Western-style "democracy". Ah, he is a millionaire? Never mind, then. As the old proverb goes--tell me who you friends are and I will tell who you are. West's propensity for extolling all kinds of Russian lowlifes is astonishing. Even when one makes an adjustment for cruel necessities of operations of influence, which, by default, require involvement of less than admirable human material. But the West outdid itself in this respect. Is it a competence issue only, or, maybe, it shows a civilizational difference between modern Russia and the West. I would say--both.    

Friday, April 3, 2020

Send Them Back.

Of course, how about sticking to principles and rules based order;)) 
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Ventilators delivered by Russia to the United States for coronavirus patients were manufactured by a Russian company that is under U.S. sanctions, Russia's RBC business daily reported on Friday. A Russian military plane carrying the ventilators along with other medical supplies including personal protective equipment landed in New York on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone. Russian state television footage of the plane's unloading showed boxes of "Aventa-M" ventilators, which are produced by the Ural Instrument Engineering Plant (UPZ) in the city of Chelyabinsk, 1,500 km (930 miles) east of Moscow, RBC reported. UPZ is part of a holding company called Concern Radio-Electronic Technologies (KRET), which itself is a unit of Russian state conglomerate Rostec. KRET has been under U.S. sanctions since July 2014, with U.S. firms and nationals barred from doing business with it. The issue was further complicated by the question of whether it was the United States or Russia's sovereign wealth fund RDIF, which was added to U.S. sectoral sanctions in 2015, that paid for the ventilators. A senior administration official on Friday said sanctions did not apply to medical supplies.
You gotta love this. But if  "sanctions did not apply to medical supplies", how about IMF (controlled by the US) issuing a loan for Iran, who desperately needs it precisely for medical supplies? And as was expected:
The State Department on Friday did not have immediate comment on the sanctions question.
Of course, not. And then, of course, this issue of "who paid for what". I guess at this stage this all is beyond redemption, the system is completely fvcked and cannot be reformed.

Friday, March 20, 2020

A Touch Of Reality.

I will not drag it out--economy was in a deep shit before all this Covid-19 thingy.  I broke keys on my keyboard writing about upcoming FUBAR in "economy" for at least a year, maybe more.  I am and never was alone. Here is a opinion of one of many observers:
But he also gets to what I am trying to say also in the last week or so:
The second problem, and the more important one in the short-term, is that economic rationale is not what is driving policy; apocalyptic doom-mongering is. Provoked by the media, governments have been forced into a macabre competition of being seen to be acting. The ‘do something… anything’ approach has resulted in new performative displays aimed at placating the doom mongers, rather than address the health problem rationally. Many governments have been driven less by a reasoned, evidence-based strategy of limiting both the spread of the disease and the disorganisation of economic life, than by an urge to be seen to be taking action.
A-ha, that's warmer. Much warmer, in fact, it is down right hot. Some of those actions are down right insane, compounded by the lack of ANY verifiable data on actual number of infected people which, now it is possible to state with a considerable degree of accuracy, is much higher than so far reported 250,000 infected globally. As you may all understand, this growth (possibly by the order of magnitude) of infected cases, many of which may never be identified, will drive mortality rates from Covid-19 down dramatically. 

I am keenly aware of the fact that operating even with the simplest linear extrapolations which put things into perspective may be beyond basic math skills of average Joe (or Jane) who can recognize some numbers but do not have proper apparatus for proper comparison. Here is a simple one: 
Ah, how lovely, later this figure was downgraded to a mere, puny 60 million Americans, which is still roughly 20% of US population. But who counts, right? Well, here is the funny part, if to do even basic linear extrapolation on Swine Flu from April 2009 to April 2010, and whole two months since "reports" on Covid-19 started to pour in in earnest (granted, grossly unreliable in terms of actual number of infected) globally, we may arrive to a puzzling picture of the Swine Flu spreading faster by the factor of around 39 in the US alone, than the same happens currently with Covid-19....globally. This comparison, of course, becomes even more dramatic when one understands that global population is 7 billion/300 million=around 23 times larger than that of the US. Swine Flu killed 12,469 Americans

So, let's put it in simpler terms: caution and even some quarantines are warranted and, in fact, maybe imperative but so far--these are media who are spreading the panic, which now completely got out of hand and is driving current multi-faceted crisis. So, it is clear that we all are not coming out of it the same. And, maybe, it is all for the better, because real drivers of this whole situation are not in the Covid-19 PR, what is shaping now to be a disaster, or in grossly overvalued US stock-market, which brought on the surface scumbags from political "elites", but in panic in regards to "oil wars". I already posted review of Scott Ritter's piece on what Russia is doing and I happen to agree that Russians do not see any value in talking to anyone in the US, including Trump himself, anymore. But I warned about this outcome for some time now. One can sense this mood of closure in Russia on the US really well. It is a well known fact, that:
But who said that Russia fights Saudi Arabia only? Saudis are not serious competitor to Russia. Russia fights Petrodollar, and with it, is finishing off Pax Americana. Now, no matter what Mnuchin says to Russians, it doesn't matter at all. Russians know that sanctions will continue and so be it. The pivotal point in all that is not even the fact of Russia being involved in some "oil-war". This is just one of the fronts. By far the most important "front" is that of Russia's National Projects which see Russia completely retooling herself (the process is ongoing as I Type this) into world's hi-tech hub, one of them. That's the real game. 

As you might expect, Western perspective on these projects was and still is primarily shaped by a delusion of the so called Western "democracies" about themselves as ever-uncorrupted, truly "democratic" and economically prospering. Obviously, as last months has shown so explicitly, it is a complete malarkey. But, as practice shows, Western "elites" (political and business) are not very bright people to put it mildly. Reality of those national projects, however, is not what all those "analysts" trying to present. Here is an example of such incompetence, courtesy of Harvard madras of school for International Relations. Here is what those National Projects pursue in reality:
Read the whole thing, but notice the vector of development towards hi-tech exports, and here is the deal--the US is terrified of it. Why? If export of weapons is any indication--the US is not realistically competitive in a number crucial components of this very hi-tech export. Unless, of course, one believes that F-35 is a viable aircraft or Patriot is a competitor to S-400, which is, frankly, laughable. What's next? Commercial airspace. Here are some news, which are not good at all for Boeing (and Airbus too). Irkut started to assemble first SERIAL MC-21 which uses only Russian-made composite materials. You may recall that the United States sanctioned composite materials:
Russians know perfectly, even Putin stated not for once, anything Russia exports, and this export is increasingly hi-tech, will be sabotaged by the US. As was the case with SSJ-100s for Iran. SSJs are now being Russified from APU to engines as if there is no tomorrow. Same goes for Nord Stream-2, and the list is huge. So, knowing that, why not to remove the obstacle, especially the one which is self-destructing, by helping it to face some real trials. Simple as that. China? That is a separate issue here, especially in relation to Russia. This will require a separate post. So, this is the reality for this Friday. As Saudi proverb (allegedly) states: one Saudi prince once stated: "my grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a Mercedes, I ride Rolls-Royce, my grandson will ride camel again." Or as they used to say Sic Transit Gloria Mundi.  

Thursday, February 6, 2020

The Train Has Left The Station.

In any business (I underscore it--business) dealings between people two major factors (and requirements) come into play, same, as a matter of fact, is true for dealings between nations, trust and fair trade. When conducting any business interaction I have to be completely sure that my counterpart is both an honest man, who doesn't plan to cheat me, and has something of equal (or near equal) value in exchange to the value I offer him (or her). The third factor which stands alone is doing due diligence when deciding who to deal with. It is simple, really, and doesn't require any special abilities. Well, evidently France's President Emmanuel Macron never heard of such basic requirements. While visiting Warsaw two days ago, Macron arrived to this conclusion:
What Macron fails to understand here is that Russians, initially, viewed Europe as an entity which satisfied those two major requirements for fair business. Boy, were Russians wrong! Only when Russians returned to necessary practice of doing due diligence did they recognize how wrong they were. I think EU taking a very active part in unleashing the bloody mess in Ukraine, while prior to it sponsoring destruction of Libya and helping to unleash hell in Syria, had something to do with that. Plus who can forget Europeans exhibiting levels of hatered towards Serbs or even Russian Troops fighting Jihad Internationale in Caucasus not seen since, well, Goebbels. Russians remember all that. Since then, in reality much earlier, Russians precisely want to, paraphrasing Macron, "distance themselves from a part of Europe Russians don't feel comfortable about." In fact, Russians are truly grateful for Europe deciding to distance itself from Russia and that is where the whole "business dealings" paradigm shifts. Europe is not a reliable partner, period. It will betray Russia because it cannot fail to do so because Russian and European cultural genetic codes differ dramatically, even when on the surface they seem to be the same. 

For starters, Russians know extremely well what are the facts behind WW II, who and how started it. Russians know it extremely well because they finished that war as victors in it and had a good insight into causes and driving forces of that war. This insight comes with the territory for Victorious nations. That is why Russians most likely will not invite Poland to the celebration of the 75th Anniversary of Victory this year. France, however, is invited and Macron already confirmed his presence in Moscow on May 9. But France, as represented by her President, is not trying to be nice to Russia. Absolutely not, France, Germany or, for that matter, Spain know that Russians are not Europeans per definition of Europeanessness as it is accepted in Europe proper. Russians are rowdy, their men love women and their women love men, Russians still exhibit signs of utter cultural backwardness by being patriotic, loving math and physics over gender studies, they laugh (or feel sorry) at Greta Thunberg and when in Europe, for some reason, can beat the shit out of third world immigrants instead of trying to culturally enrich themselves by allowing those immigrants to rape Russian women or rob themselves. In general, those backward, KGB-loving Russians have no place in Europe and, that is the funny part, Russians are perfectly fine with that. Russians also love guns, they love to own them, shoot them and most of those Russkies are drafted into the Army which turns their toxic masculinity to 11.

But for Macron, expressing what amounts to a trivial geopolitical common sense, is all about France:

1. Not willing to become American lunch;
2. France's always acute fear of Germans combined with phantom pains of European superpowerdom and desire to speak on behalf of all Europe.

Of course, France's nuclear arsenal counts heavily towards resolving France's fears of German resurgence, at least for now, but it counts for absolutely nothing when France will face what the United States has in store for EU. United States needs EU dissolved and will eat each European nation after that separately. Macron figured that out and so did some Europeans. So, now they try to woo Russia as some kind of counter-balance to Europe's defender and upholder of European democracy across the Atlantic. The problem with this arrangement is that Russia doesn't want to deal with this anymore. Make no mistake, Russia can:



But she shouldn't. Moreover, there is this teeny-weeny factor of Trump and his "deep state" advisors still willing to "talk to Putin". That smells of conflict of interests. This is really a funny situation few could have predicted in 2014, but it is what it is--in the end, even if one is a scumbag in business relations, this scumbag still could be of interest if he has something of value. The ONLY value of Europe for Russia is as market, period. Russia needs to sell her hydrocarbons, and increasingly high value added finished goods to Europe. This trend will continue. While oil and other minerals constitute a bulk of Russia exports, take a look at some really interesting items which Russia exported in 2018
As you can see, finished goods and food are by no means unnoticeable in Russia's exports and their share will only continue to grow. I omit here internal Russian market which changes the economic outlook dramatically, when included into considerations, because Russia produces a bulk of finished goods for internal use. That means, of course, that EU is a competitor, not really a partner. Especially now, when Russia rolled out half-a-trillion dollars for National Projects which are Russia's projects, not EU's. Certainly, EU could have had a share, should it have been sovereign and friendlier to Russia political organization, but not anymore. You think Macron doesn't know it? Oh, yes, he does. He also knows (after all, Airbus HQs are in Toulouse), that not only Russians are moving away from Safran SAM-146 jet engines, but continue to manufacture SSJ-100s now planned with fully Russian-made engines. And, of course, guess what MC-21 and perspective CR-929 are for Airbus business? Right, direct and stiff competition. So much to take in for Europe. Plus, if someone failed to notice, some piece of really interesting news:
Power plant engineers have loaded 18 mixed-oxide (MOX) fuel assemblies in Unit 4 at the Beloyarsk nuclear power plant in Sverdlovsk Oblast, Russia. Distinct from traditional nuclear fuel with enriched uranium, MOX fuel pellets are based on the mix of nuclear fuel cycle derivatives, such as plutonium oxide bred in commercial reactors and uranium oxide derived by defluorination of depleted uranium hexafluoride—the so-called secondary tailings of uranium enrichment facilities.Beloyarsk Unit 4 (Figure 1) is a BN-800 design, the world’s most powerful fast neutron reactor. It was a POWER Top Plant in 2016. Rosenergoatom and TVEL (the power generation and nuclear fuel divisions of Rosatom State Corp., respectively) plan to load another batch of 180 MOX fuel assemblies later this year. The group has committed to replacing all remaining uranium-based fuel assemblies with MOX fuel by the end of 2021. If completed as planned, it will be the first time a Russian fast neutron reactor operates with a full load of MOX fuel.
I guess this is not a good news for French nuclear power industry, which, inevitably, also will be sabotaged by "climate activists", while Rosatom already has almost 70% of international market to itself. So, when one begins to review one after another European purely economic perspectives--they do not look that bright. And then, of course, there is an issue of EU's military-industrial complex which was pretty much driven into the ground by US "defense" arrangements with Europe through NATO. And here is the catch for EU, Russia and the United States are bound to some sort of settlement inevitably, because Russia is a major external geopolitical factor in American departure from unipolarity. Not to mention the fact that both are the only military powers capable to annihilate human civilization (forget each-other) completely out of own resources. That is what matters here. EU in all that is NOT a factor and will continue to be such no matter how Vladimir Putin's calls for New Yalta Conference will be responded too.
In the end, what can Europe offer Russia but her market? Technologies? Ahh, tired myth of those Russkies capable to only produce crude weapons--many in Europe still believe in that. Some cannot still conceive that Russia produces world-class own diagnostic medical equipment, electronics, processors etc. They will have to learn to live with that. And while at it, some breaking news from free United Kingdom--UK decided to lift some sanctions from Russia since UK needs Russian pipes, aluminum and you name it. And the main question which arises in the midst of this rat race is: what about Skripals, what about LGBT, what about "democracy", and what about those "principles" which guided suicidal EU (and American) policies domestically and especially against Russia? I'll open a secret--there never were any principles and the only thing Europe loves is power--this power today is in Russia's corner. Because of that many will gravitate to this power, which is not only in massive military capability but, and you may have guessed it already, I will quote incomparable Correli Barnett, yet again: 
EU was too late to the accelerating train of history, which left the station, leaving Europeans and their Brussels bureaucracy and "elites", those who can still think, to contemplate Old Europe's fate as an object good only for being used as a relatively senior card in a huge geopolitical game and no amount of appeals to those who hold all the trump (pun is intended) cards will change the outcome. Damn, Russia again will have to deal with Anglos as was the case in 1945(/sarc). 

Friday, July 12, 2019

S-400 Is In Turkey.

So, Erdogan did stand his ground:
Turkey has received the first shipment of S-400 air defense missile system equipment from Moscow, defying pressure from Washington to scrap the arms deal with Russia.The components arrived at the Murted military airfield outside Ankara on Friday, the nation’s Ministry of National Defense said in a short statement. Russia’s Defense Ministry has also confirmed that the shipment has started and will continue as scheduled.Both countries signed a contract for the delivery of four S-400 batteries in 2017. The contract earned Ankara the ongoing row with Washington, which strongly opposes the deal, claiming the purchase of advanced Russian-made weapons undermines the security of NATO and goes against American interests.
I want to clear the air from the very start: Turkey knows what F-35 is and that is why she will "survive" cancellation of F-35 deliveries. F-35 for Turkey, who produced a number of parts for this aircraft, was primarily of industrial interest. So, all this contrived BS about security issues is just that, BS. Modern Air Defense complexes, such as S-400, even in their export version, can detect, track and shoot down all those VLO (Very Low Observability) targets such as F-35. The only "security issue" here for the United States was the fact that having "live" F-35 and S-400 simultaneously by the key member of NATO would have revealed publicly (in professional circles it is known well already) all massive faults with F-35 in general and ONLY-VLO-centric combat aircraft concept in particular

There is a lot, as was expected, of butt-hurt right now. Such as this:
Washington has threatened to remove Turkey from its F-35 fighter jet programme, giving Ankara until July 31 to cancel the S-400 purchase or have its pilots kicked off the training course and expelled from the US. But Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said after meeting US counterpart Donald Trump last month that he was confident Ankara would not face sanctions for buying the Russian missile system. Erdogan told Trump during their meeting on the margins of the G-20 meeting in Japan that former president Barack Obama did not allow Ankara to buy Patriot missiles -- an equivalent of the S-400s. Trump sounded convinced and said: "You can't do business that way. It's not good." The Turkish air force changed the name of the base in Ankara from Akinci to Murted after it was the centre of a 2016 failed coup attempt.
For starters: Patriot is NOT equivalent of the S-400 with S-400 being superior in its key performance characteristics. Secondly, I agree with Trump in a sense that "you can't do business like that" and this has nothing to do with Turkey but with the United States which is now in full economic warfare and political bullying with most of the world. The inevitable question thus--who in their mind would do business with the country which is ungovernable and both has no competitive systems to offer and may stop (or disable) their procurement any moment? Only spineless Europeans, maybe. India was explicit in basically telling the US to mind its own business re: India's $5 billion contract with Russia for S-400. Pakistan, India, many others, including Gulfies want S-400 and other Russian weapon systems. We know what the United States will do--she will try to sabotage any Russia's effort across the whole spectrum of international economic activity, be that Nord Stream-2 or arms trade. 

For Turkey, however, it seems, S-400 is not just military or, inevitably, geopolitical reorientation issue, with Ankara beginning to understand where her real interests lie. In the end, Turkey sees on the horizon the access to technology transfer not only for S-400 (its export version, of course) but eventually for export versions of SU-35, SU-57 and, inevitably, S-500 and who knows what else. So, there is a lot to be taken in at this moment but as I said many times, Russia has the ability and instruments for defense of larger Eurasia, plus, in Turkey's case, deliveries and deployment of S-400 boost Turkey's regional standing, including in disputes with Greece and Cyprus. It is enough to look at the map of the region to understand why S-400 changes Turkey's status in Eastern Mediterranean. As stated by Russian MoD (in Russian) the second gigantic An-124 will leave for Turkey with another set of S-400 equipment shortly, the balance, which is 120 missiles, will be delivered by the end of this Summer by sea-route. Second group of Turkish officers will start its training for S-400 this July in Russia. This comes to mind, inevitably;-))


Mueller says: you see how I turned you? In 5 minutes and no tricks.
I guess next step will be US sanctions against Russia's sovereign debt--this will accelerate Empire's decline greatly. Zugzwang is a bitch.