Larry Gives An Excellent Account...

 ... of Prigozhin's spiteful mind and where his hatred for Shoigu and Gerasimov originated from. 

Prigozhin is the business CEO of Wagner. He has zero military experience but is an established contractor, just like Raytheon or General Dynamics in the United States. He handled (or mishandled) the money flowing to Wagner and probably spread the wealth among some commanders. The cash flow from Wagner added to Prigozhin’s wealth. It also fed his ego and provided him the illusion of being viewed in Russia an important military figure. Fourth, Prigozhin reportedly cut a deal in 2018 with a Syrian war lord to capture a Conoco oil field in a portion of Kurd controlled territory, which was defended by a small group of U.S. Special Operations Forces. This was the Battle of Khashsam aka the Battle of Conoco:

In the end, those killed by USAF died for Prigozhin ambition and greed. Likely not only his alone. Rumor has it that it was either Shoigu or Gerasimov who after the event conveyed the message to Prigozhin to the effect that he should abandon stupid efforts to become Napoleon (or similar in scale leader) and that people died because of his ego and greed. Read the whole thing at Larry's blog. In other words, in case of Prigozhin you can take a man out of prison, you can not take the prison out of man.

As Was Expected...

 ... the dawning of reality is in progress for the criminal and his group of accomplices that the game is up. 

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced on Saturday that he had arranged a deal whereby Wagner Group leader Evgeny Prigozhin will abandon his mutiny in exchange for “security guarantees” for his fighters. “Evgeny Prigozhin accepted the proposal of President Alexander Lukashenko to stop the movement of armed men of Wagner in Russia and take further steps to de-escalate tension,” read a statement from Lukashenko's office. According to the statement, Lukashenko and Prigozhin held talks for the “whole day,” and “came to an agreement on the inadmissibility of unleashing a bloodbath on the territory of Russia.”

Wagner returns to its camps near Bakhmut and Soledar and the procedures of disarming and dismantling start from there. Naturally, all camps will be blocked by military. After that FSB and Investigative Committee will start work. Prigozhin, most likely, will try to escape to 404 where his contacts, both GUR and MI6, are but I doubt anyone will let him. Now, what was the last straw for Prigozhin? Simple--MoD refused to extend contract with Wagner. And as I stated not for once--the real history of Bakhmut is not what you read in shitty TG channels and most media. 

Now, people call me, and I just did 1.5 hour podcast with Vera, Marat and Vladimir, but it is on VK only, sadly. A lot have been said there, including about some, very few, people in MoD who will be forced to do some splainin'. Was there a plan on the part of 404 GUR and Bitidh? Yes, most likely, but they thought--they really did, that is how amateur they are--that "counteroffensive" will succeed and once the front line is breached, Wagner will start mutiny. Well, as you all know the "counteroffensive" turned into a slaughter of VSU and NATO personnel and equipment, and the noose around Wagner and Prigozhin started to tighten and that is what we've got.  In any case, the response of Russian society was unequivocal support of President and condemnation of traitors, who now will deal with severe consequences.

So, Prigozhin Decided To Go For It.

Wagner took control of government buildings in Rostov-On-Don and Prigozhin himself materialized in the Staff of Southern Military District and demands now Shoigu and Gerasimov (in Russian). So, it is a Kornilov Mutiny, of sorts, and now a lot becomes clear about Prigozhin and Wagner. This is getting serious and those people from Wagner who participate in this are now official traitors. I also want to point out Ostashko's description of General Alexeev. 

The fact that the appeal of the First Deputy Chief of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, Lieutenant General Vladimir Stepanovich Alekseev, appeared on the Web, says a lot. In fact, this is a legendary person. He was behind the planning of many secret operations, the formations of a number of PMCs (including interacting with the Wagners at the dawn of the formation), carried out reconciliation in a number of regions of Syria. Through his line, various private security companies and PMCs sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense. It is possible that earlier he tried behind the scenes to resolve the conflict between Prigogine and Shoigu. That is why Alekseev is now speaking publicly.

7 Hours ago I quipped that he, likely, failed. The reason he failed is because he obviously didn't seriously psychologically profile Prigozhin, especially considering Prigozhin's outright criminal background as a thief and a robber, with two trips to prison for various violent crimes, and this is an extremely important indicator of character, which, as we saw today reared its ugly head of a sheer narcissist and, highly likely, asset. Whose asset, we are yet to learn. I guess Lieutenant General Alexeev has some splainin' to do. And the signs have been there all the time. I guess this was expected having a criminal (gopnik, really) heading some private army which obtained the access to heavy weaponry and now took command of a major Russian city of a key strategic importance and stabbed Russian Armed Forces in the back. This thing was planned by Prigozhin. This is a major failure of some people in MoD and especially among those who have been directly involved in Wagner's activity and contract's signing. In hindsight--this was coming. 

Update: Vladimir Putin will shortly address nation.

Well, Now It Could Be Stated Openly...

 ... that Prigozhin is not only a criminal, but, highly likely, the asset of Ukie-NATO axis. A lot of things point out to that, including "rumors" (in reality, reliable information) of Prigozhin and some Wagner people providing information on positions of Russian Army to VSU. Per Wagner: I am on record--they are good storm group but as a serious force they are nothing without Russian Armed Forces. The media BS about them, as well as grossly exaggerated stories about Bakhmut have been designed primarily for the consumption of fanboys who masturbate on tactical minutiae. Me and my friends discussed it for months in the media e.g. PolitWera et al. So, this is over for Prigozhin and, eventually, for Wagner. As FSB reports:

МОСКВА, 24 июня. /ТАСС/. Заявления и действия основателя ЧВК "Вагнер" Евгения Пригожина фактически являются призывами к началу вооруженного гражданского конфликта, заявили в субботу в центре общественных связей ФСБ России. "Заявления и действия Пригожина фактически являются призывами к началу вооруженного гражданского конфликта на территории РФ и являются ударом в спину российским военнослужащим, воюющим с профашистскими украинскими силами", - сообщили там. В ведомстве также отметили, что распространенные заявления об ударах МО РФ по ЧВК "Вагнер" не соответствуют действительности и являются провокацией. "Вся распространяемая в социальных сетях информация от имени Пригожина о якобы нанесенных Минобороны РФ ракетно-бомбовых ударах по тыловым частям ЧВК "Вагнер" не соответствует действительности и является информационной провокацией", - сказали в центре общественных связей ФСБ.

Translation: MOSCOW, 24 June. /TASS/. The statements and actions of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of Wagner PMC, are in fact calls for the start of an armed civil conflict, the Russian FSB public relations center said on Saturday. “Prigozhin’s statements and actions are in fact calls for the start of an armed civil conflict on the territory of the Russian Federation and are a stab in the back of Russian servicemen fighting pro-fascist Ukrainian forces,” they said. The department also noted that the widespread statements about the strikes of the Russian Defense Ministry on PMC "Wagner" are not true and are a provocation. "All the information disseminated on social networks on behalf of Prigozhin about the missile and bomb attacks allegedly inflicted by the Russian Defense Ministry on the rear units of the Wagner PMC is untrue and is an informational provocation," the FSB public relations center said.

And now, ask yourself a question WHY Prigozhin was promoted and elevated almost to the status of Napoleon both by Russian and Western media? And you will find many answers to many questions. He should hang together with his accomplices, but most likely will get 20 years, if not killed before. He is a cook and not of Steven Seagal's variety from Under Siege.

Larry On Prigozhin, Scott On Russia.

Larry wrote excellent piece on Prigozhin's histrionics. As good CIA analyst Larry presents three possibilities. 

Personally, I call bullshit. For starters, Prigozhin is not a military commander nor does he have any military experience. He can whip up a great Chicken Kiev and is an incredible marketeer, but he ain’t Clauswitz or Sun Tzu. I will not bore you with the conventional analysis that insists Prigozhin is either a whistleblower on steriods or someone who is on the verge of a mental breakdown. I fully understand why some will draw those conclusions, but I am not buying it.

Read the whole thing because it is an excellent food for thought piece. But there is a fourth possibility, which Lt. Colonel Oleg Shalandin, Vera and me discussed today with a huge caveat that Prigozhin's histrionics may and most likely will now cost him a lot. Especially after distasteful video with Wagner's KIAs. The fourth possibility being the fact that he may be removed from Wagner's control because, in the end, Wagner is a commercial corp initiated by Russia's Defense Ministry and Prigozhin, methinks, overstepped. Keep in mind that "suddenly" General Mizintsev is IN Wagner and as Oleg described him--he is an outstanding general, very competent and his "retirement" may, actually, be the sign of Wagner being in the process of "whipping in shape". It is clear that Akhmat is now in process of deployment to Artemovsk to finish off mopping up or the remnants of VSU.

Meanwhile, Scott travels across Russia with his new book and that is what he has to say about "sanctions".

Yes, sanctions aren't working against Russia. In fact, they accelerate Russia's economic development. On the other hand, sanctions inflicted an immense pain on combined West and now we see cracks all over Western-run institutions ranging from NATO, to EU, to what have you.

No Comments Needed.

Well, sort of. 

The share of the euro in Russia’s National Wealth Fund (NWF) will be reduced to zero in 2023 as Moscow further reduces its exposure to the currencies of ‘unfriendly’ nations, Deputy Finance Minister Vladimir Kolychev has revealed. “It [the euro] will definitely be reset to zero this year,” Kolychev told reporters on Thursday while answering a question on what would happen to the funds in euros remaining in the NWF accounts. The official also added that the ministry would gradually bring the structure of the NWF in accordance with the new standards in such a way that only rubles, Chinese yuan and gold would remain there.

Calmly, without grandiose gestures and PR. Just like that. It is also known that China was dumping treasuries since 2022 and, looks like, the arrangements are being made to completely remove any remnants of "credibility" from moribund US Dollar and Euro, whose fate is pretty clear now because of upcoming (when, don't ask me, I don't know) collapse of the EU and, finally, NATO. How will this develop is very difficult to predict but it is now the matter of WHEN, not IF. SMO is designed to address this issue. 

For doubters, here is my friend Colonel Vladimir Trukhan (in Russian) explains on fingers what is going on and what aims Russia pursues--very successfully--in former 404. 

The title of interview is:

The Enemy Could Not Defeat Us Economically, Hence Transition To Real War.

Use Google translate, Volodya explains it in simplest terms and reserves more emotional responses, LOL, for upcoming Friday when three of us: Vera, Volodya and me will meet yet again (I lost count already) on podcast and will discuss--and you have guessed it--SMO from operational and strategic POV. In related news, pay attention to Alexandr Rogers excellent columns. And if you followed even intermittently Russian info-space, you may have noticed a dramatic reduction of "noise" from all those military "reporters" in Russia, who, such as Sladkov, Pegov, Kotz et all. completely discredited the profession. As with the US Dollar, you know, reputations are built for a long time, but are destroyed in an instance. 

In related news CNN asked Evgenii Prigozhin (Wagner's leader) the next question: Good afternoon, Can you please explain why recruitment in the Russian prison system has ended for Wagner? What is the reason behind this? 

Prigozhin's response: After the release of Wagner PMC advertisement aimed at American audience we received more than 10 million applications from US citizens wishing to join the Wagner PMC to fight against NATO. At the moment, we are considering about one million American citizens for employment. Therefore, we temporarily suspended the recruitment of volunteers from Russian prisons, however, if there is a corresponding request from the US State Department, we will recruit from American ones."

He did actually respond like that. Of course, this part was ignored by CNN, LOL. But on a more serious note on this issue: Vladimir Rogov today informed (in Russian) that several thousand of citizens of other countries, such as UK, US, Canadians, French, Germans, Portuguese, in all from 47 countries, want to join Russian Armed Forces to fight. He stated that after resolving logistics issues and background checks by FSB they may join. He also underscored that for many of those people it is the matter of not only fighting globalism but defeating it for their own countries to survive and reform. How strange, in a good way, to see today the rebirth of Internationalist Brigades fighting for a good cause. This is your primer.