Russians, Of Course, "Cannot Fly Formation"(c)/s

Senator and astronaut Kelly, of course, never understood what he was dealing with, when he uttered this, now a meme, idiocy.   

Here, four SU-57s are just maneuvering for Egorov and his TV Zvezda show "Military Acceptance". 

In related news. We all know that Victor David Hanson is a credentialed cretin (as is Pierce Morgan). Here is how this "warfare expert" knows shit about world outside. 

West's media continue the rotation of the same morons like VDH non-stop, and for some reason expect to learn something of substance. No, it is all to create a low-brow show. These all are the signs of decomposition of Western societies and a complete enshittification and uglification of what passes for culture today in the West. 

Yes, one has to be "confident". Being normal and competent? No. 

The Smell Of Coping.

Or when the butthurt becomes intolerable)) Especially since India wants now SU-57. Comparing SU-57 to F-35, LOL. Apart from typical BS about "western avionics" (really?) and comparing pathetic AIM-120 AMRAAM weapons suite of F-35 to hypersonic 400 kilometer range R-37 and now land attack version of Zircon and utter incompatibility of F-35 and modern warfare, they launch another BS:

The Su-57’s purchase is not without danger. Its stealth capabilities are behind the F-35’s, and production is still low, with fewer than a half-dozen in Russian hands as of 2025.

Well, well, well. How about we give the microphone to Deputy Commander of Russia's Air-Space Forces General Maksimtsev. I am sure he knows a teeny-weeny bit about all this SU-57 business. 

Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces Lieutenant General Alexander Maksimtsev has confirmed that preparations are underway for the deliveries of Su-57 fifth generation fighters at an accelerated rate. “In accordance with the state procurement order, the Russian Aerospace Forces are receiving modern and upgraded weapons and equipment on an annual basis… The delivery of Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jets with modern aircraft armaments and hypersonic weapons is being ramped up,” he stated. Russian industry had set a highly ambitious target of a 67 percent surge in the production of Su-57s in 2024, with 20 fighters expected to enter service that year compared to just 12 fighters in 2023 and only six fighters in 2022. This would have nearly doubled the fleet size from 22 to 42 fighters, although significant uncertainty has remained regarding whether this target was met. The delivery of just two batches of Su-57s was confirmed in 2024, with the number of aircraft in these batches remaining unknown. 

Well, this "uncertainty" remains only for people who still cannot come to grips with the reality of Russia's economy but 42+ operational SU-57s certainly doesn't fit the description of "half dozen". It hurts especially bad against the background of Spain telling F-35 to go and pound sand. Which brings us to another gaping hole in combat aviation programs of NATO--the whole of NATO (US included) DOES NOT have any modern and capable combat aircraft in the pipeline other than public masturbations to some "sixth generation" whatever, while lagging dramatically behind Russia in the field of very high velocity super long range AA missilery. Theoretically one can go to the battlefield in the Bentley limousine and with the machine gun, but BTR-82 will win the engagement easily every time. So, let them cope. And lie, this is what they are good at. 

Evidently, I Am In the Mood ...

... for butthurt news today. Or, rather, having fun at and with them, because my BS meter is extremely sensitive. 

India Has a Choice: Russia’s Su-57 or America’s F-35 Fighter?

India will choose F-35, we all know that, but that's not the point. It is the copious amount of BS they continue to spread. Like this, in the same piece:

The Su-57’s top speed of Mach 2.0 is noticeably faster than the F-35, but it is not as stealthy. In a unique display, both the American-made F-35 Lightning II and Russian-made Su-57 were seen together during an air show in India earlier this month. In addition to the Chinese Chengdu J-20 and American F-22 Raptor, these fifth-generation platforms are considered to be the most capable in service today. The presence of both airframes at the Aero India 2025 is significant as tensions continue to ramp up across the globe.

The question which one must ask is--and what is so "unique" in this "display"? Both countries brought their planes to the show. OK, wow. Now, another matter is PLURAL in terms of platforms and considered by who? So, Russians brought combat proven 5th generation aircraft with unrivaled combat record, while the US brought ...

As the second U.S.-made fifth-generation fighter platform, the F-35 is widely considered to be the most formidable of its kind to fly the skies. 

Again, considered by who? What are the criteria of "formidability"? Some BS propaganda about the platform which became a global butt of jokes and is absolutely not fit for real war? F-35 flew a rather boring routine at Aero India 2025 which is a pity, considering the fact that Su-57 stole the show, but that's just that--the show. I am sure when fresh (February 2025) facts on combat readiness are presented:

The F-35 fighter program continues to struggle with meeting test milestones and mission readiness goals, but progress is being made on both fronts, according to the latest report from the Pentagon’s test director and comments from the Joint Program Office and Lockheed Martin. Testing of the F-35’s Technology Refresh-3 software and hardware “remained significantly behind schedule throughout [Fiscal Year] 2024, acting Director of Operational Test and Evaluation Raymond D. O’Toole Jr. said in his organization’s annual report, released in late January. “The F-35 program has shown no improvement in meeting schedule and performance timelines for developing and testing software designed to address deficiencies and add new capabilities,” the report added.

This excruciating for military analysis professionals BS may stop, because in the end, shows are for ... well, shows for hoi polloi, while in particular case of India all those behind closed doors "negotiations" may last forever and will be decided by the scale of bribes, not combat capability of which F-35 has none in real war.    

Butthurt Is Strong on This One ...

The National Interest tabloid cannot give it a rest. They continue to parade their butthurt, or a minute of military porn, LOL))

Visually, the Su-57 is impressive. But the whole purpose of stealth, long-range missiles, and beyond-visual-range detection is that if you can see the enemy with your eyes, you probably did something wrong. Following the fifth-generation showdown at the “Aero India 2025” biennial air show at the Yelahanka Air Force Station, which began last Monday, Russia has continued to hype up its Sukhoi Su-57 (NATO reporting name “Felon”).

Boy, this amateur with degree in journalism (that means he has no real education) is akin to a kindergarten kid who got his candy taken away. Here is his awesome "background", LOL. 

Somebody really has to explain this guy that:

1. So called Stealth is primarily a mythology of the Lockheed it developed to sell this BS F-117 which met ignominious demise from Serbian AD in 1999. So, this Suciu guy obviously doesn't understand that the reduction of RCS primarily in the front semi-sphere is just but one of the measures commonly known as reduction of the physical fields of the platform, not to mention the fact of any Russian AD complex or airborne radar, especially plugged in the combat network, in the US aka CEC--Cooperative Engagement Capability, yes, Russians have analog already well tried in real combat, and neither S-400 nor PESA Irbis on Su-35 or AESA Byelka on Su-57 have any difficulty detecting, tracking and developing firing solution against any "stealth" combat aircraft. I omit here a pathetic range of F-35's arsenal with its AIM-120 AMRAAM with its maximum range of 180 km against hypersonic, 400 km-range R-37 carried by Su-57, Su-35, 30SM and SM2. 

2. There was NO showdown in India. F-35 would disintegrate should it ever try even some parts of the flying routine of Su-57, and I mean literally--it would disintegrate. It is time for fanboys and the graduates of Air Combat University of the Top Gun: Maverick to wake up and try to compare combat proven weapon system against the best NATO AD scoring record air to air kills, with hangar queens of the USAF such as obsolete F-22 and some mediocre at best flying contraption which was made to fight against ... well, someone who has no viable air force. I know, it hurts so badly. But this journo can thank Biden Admin and his colleagues from the whoring "profession" who helped to expose NATO military "power" as that of the paper tiger. So, go on, make my day, punk (c). Ah yes, there was no showdown, Su-57 simply stole the show. 

Zhuhai 2024.

This is Sergei Bogdan (62 years old) flying Su-57 prototype at Zhuhai a few days ago. This is not edited video, no slowing down for scale and a genuine sound. There is some USAF guy talking about it ... LOL)))

Once you invoke Top Gun Maverick... really? 

So sad...

Beauty All Around.

Be that Su-57 flown by Sergei Bogdan or Chinese beauty next to him. Russia signed first export contracts for Su-57. 

About SU-57.

Well, it looks like the Izdelie-30 (a new engine for Su-57) IS in serial production and this year batch and all 22 Su-57s for the next year will be equipped with this brand new engine. But this is not what struck me--it was clear that the new engine was ready for some time--what struck me, and it doesn't seem to be a rumor, Su-57 starting from the next year will be equipped with Radiophotonics (Radio-optical--ROFAR) radar. This changes everything because ROFAR allows to detect, identify and track any targets at a range of 500+ kilometers. Make your own conclusions on that. Russia (KRET) did create first fully functional ROFAR already in 2020.

About Professional Envy.

I speak about it today in my latest video. 

Meanwhile, the reality sets in:

Continuing to arm Ukraine and expecting it to defeat Russia is “strategic insanity” for Washington and other NATO members because Kiev is locked in an unwinnable stalemate with a foe that never aimed to conquer the former Soviet republic, USA Today has reported, citing multiple US foreign-policy experts. The report, published on Thursday, hints at a shifting narrative for Western media outlets, which had been touting Ukraine’s alleged battlefield successes, as well as vows by the Biden administration that Kiev must be supported with massive military and economic aid for “as long as it takes” to win the conflict with Russia. Georgetown University professor Sean McFate, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington, told the newspaper that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has begun to lose credibility – Kiev’s “main asset” – with Western benefactors. He claimed that Zelensky has locked himself into a “NATO is experiencing donor fatigue and disappointment with Zelensky’s bluster,” said McFate, a US Army veteran who also has consulted for the Pentagon and the CIA. He added that continuing to send billions of dollars’ worth of weaponry to Ukraine on expectations that Zelensky’s regime can win the conflict is “the definition of strategic insanity.”

Well, it is not Zelensky who "has begun to lose credibility", it is NATO which already lost it, and "donor fatigue" is not "fatigue" but the loss of the war. The reality simply sets in. NATO, a euphemism for Pentagon, "planning" is a joke. And they are envious, painfully envious and jealous.

Just In Time To Supplement...

 My new video I posted earlier today: 

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has suspended talks with the US over procuring 50 F-35 fighter jets that were part of a $23 billion arms deal, expressing concerns over a restrictive end-user agreement, according to media reports. The plans to procure the 5th generation fighter jets have been sent for “re-assessment”, an unnamed UAE official told Reuters on Tuesday, confirming earlier reporting by the Wall Street Journal on a potential breakage of the deal.“Technical requirements, sovereign operational restrictions, and cost/benefit analysis led to the re-assessment,” the official said, adding that Washington still remains “the UAE's preferred provider for advanced defense requirements and discussions for the F-35 may be re-opened in the future.”The country has been reportedly seeking to “address mutual defense security conditions for the acquisition,” namely what it deemed an over-restrictive end-user agreement. The requirements have been reportedly set up by Washington over the cozy relationship Abu Dhabi enjoys with China, seeking to protect the cutting-edge planes from possible “espionage” attempts by Beijing.

Well, we need to call this "restrictive end-user agreement" for what it is--US doesn't sell F-35, it leases it for a scandalous sum of money for this flying contraption and countries which pay for F-35 do not obtain full rights to use these "super-pooper" aircraft for a number of defensive tasks. Yes, I see Israel's ears behind all that, but not only. Of course, China's espionage cannot be excluded. China as anyone else IS involved in the industrial espionage and, sure, Chinese may take an interest in this thing. But consider also some other realities, among which, is this:

This thing not only competes with F-35 in terms of all Netcentric Warfare, weapons and sensor bells and whistles, but knowing what Sukhoi is, one can bet one's own ass that when SU-75 starts to fly it will fly, alright. The way F-35 can only dream about. Moreover, once you buy it--it is yours. One can easily extrapolate what Russians do with their combat aviation today just by looking at the speed with which S-70 Okhotnik (Hunter) is being prepped for serial production in 2024 with the first contract for serial run of this UAV to be signed in the first half of 2022.

   

So, this is not just ANY advanced UAV, it is the ONLY UAV in the world capable of deep strike missions using all existing arsenal of heavy weaponry carried by Russia's Air Force latest fighters and, of course, it is capable of dog-fighting, controlling other drones (including swarms), be a loyal wing-man for SU-57. And if this hasn't been enough, it does look like SU-57 is capable of guiding long range missiles from AD complexes starting from S-400. In related news, they are going to sign additional contract for SU-57s to be deployed by 2024. Could it be that these facts contributed to UAE's decision to "reassess" and do "cost/benefit" analysis in regards to F-35? I'll go out on a limb here and say that it is highly probable. 

The US, however, will not stop and will continue with the pattern which emerged during AUKUS affair and will continue to twist hands and shove down the throat the products of US Military-Industrial Complex but the time is not on the US Military-Industrial Complex side. We can easily predict the emergence of new Russian air and missile-defense complexes soon--that is why Russia has not problems offering S-500 to India--and who knows what will Russia roll out in terms of air assets by 2030. The US and NATO sense this, that is why in a desperate attempt to stay relevant and Ryabkov had to warn Western "partners":

Russia could be forced to deploy intermediate-range nuclear missiles on its European territory in response to what it sees as NATO’s plans to increase the presence of atomic weapons on the continent, a top diplomat has claimed. In an interview with RIA Novosti on Monday, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov insisted that if Western nations refuse to sign a moratorium on intermediate-range nuclear forces (INF) in Europe, Russia will be obliged to place the further West than is currently the case. Moscow has proposed the deal as part of a package of measures intended to defuse the ongoing crisis in Ukraine.“The absence of progress in the direction of a political-diplomatic solution to this problem will make it so that our response is military,” Ryabkov said. “That is, it will be a confrontation, the next round, the deployment of such tools from our side.”

Totally expected. It is also clear that the response will be hypersonic and there are some weapon systems we didn't see yet on Russia's side. 

 

Here is my today's video:

As always, do not forget (those who can) to support me and subscribe. A lot is going on today and I have some ideas for future conversations.  

I Used to Like JetBlue.

WTF, man, WTF!! I never gave a shit that some male flight attendants serving with JetBlue are obviously gay. I don't give a shit about what they do behind closed doors. But, no! The second biggest American export, after inflation and instability, the virtue signalling just now went to 11. 

Apparently passengers are pissed off, and between this and the BLM nonsense at JFK, pilots are ready for a job action.

The destruction of the society and its moral norms proceeds apace in the United States. Propaganda of deviancy of any kind hits overdrive, how can you explain THAT to a child of a tender age flying JetBlue. That it is "normal" for a man to be a weirdo?  

This is what I wrote in a conclusion to my last book:

If not, the America as we knew it, even 15 years ago, is over, and its fate will be sealed. The nightmarish playground for every human sin, perversion and anomaly will be opened up until it inevitably disintegrates, through violence and bloodshed, into a barren land of proto-state entities held together by well-organized militias whose legitimacy will be ensured by the paramilitary organizations and, yet again, violence.  

Some people might say that there is supposed to a plan for that, the method to this absolute madness, but I think the situation is much-much worse--we have on our hand an emerging dictatorship of "true believers" most of who are not just radicals, they are down right insane and act on their "free will". This is not going to end well one way or another.  In related news: 

"Sehr geehrte Damen und Herren, herzlich willkommen an Bord" and its English translation, "Ladies and gentlemen, welcome on board," will soon be things of the past on Lufthansa flights. The German flag carrier plans to use gender-neutral language. The change would apply to all airlines operated by the Lufthansa Group, including Austrian Airlines, Swiss and Eurowings. Diversity isn't just an empty phrase, but is a reality for Lufthansa, Anja Stenger, the company's spokeswoman, told DW. "Starting now, we also want to express this attitude in our language," she said. 

I used to like Lufthansa too. The combined West is lost and it is not coming back in any normal way--its decline is irreversible and only accelerates. As Paul Craig Roberts notes:

The movie “Escape from New York” is going to resonate in every Blue City. America, once a proud nation, now a crime-ridden, perverted Tower of Babel, is experiencing the simultaneous rise in crime and perversion. Beastiality advocates are the latest “marginalized” group to demand their rights. Zoophiles, as they call themselves, demand to join the LGTBQ+ movement and become a member of Pride. 

Institutionalizing pedophilia is next. Do not expect American "conservatives" to fight this--their "conservatism" manifests itself only in fighting taxes on rich and promoting laissez-faire dystopia for their own benefit. In general, there is no coherent and smart genuine conservative force out there which can identify main reasons for them being increasingly marginalized. I read their "intellectuals"--most of it is a pseudo-scholastic BS. As I stated not for once--the best test to know if you have a real conservative in a front of you is to ask the question: what is the foundation of the American nation. See for yourself how they will avoid the answer by spiting boilerplate BS about "liberty" and Jesus Christ. When you have primarily, not exclusively, neocons representing America's "right"--expect to end up dead politically. 

In UNrealted news: It is a single engine aircraft, and that means mass-production for both domestic and export needs. 

UAC's CEO Yuri Slyusar', speaking to Vladimir Putin yesterday, confirmed (in Russian) that SU-57 and its numerous iterations (Ha!!!) will be ordered in hundreds and the process is ongoing. Initial contract for SU-57 is 76 aircraft and SU-57 is already in serial production. Will we see STOVL variant? Something tells me we will. Do not forget, Russian Navy Day is coming and who knows what will be announced as a present to the Russian Navy during the celebration.

Controlling Butt-Hurt.

It seems that the butt-hurt level in US media re: Russia is off the scale lately. When I say "I told you so", I do it not to feed my ego, however large, but to make a point that to speak on matters of practical geopolitics, let alone modern warfare, military and engineering background, not to speak of human and professional integrity--the only filter which separates facts from propaganda--is a must. No, it is a MUST. But that is precisely what modern, not just American but European, Russian etc. pop-military "analysis" and military porn sphere lacks. Luckily, my blog and my books keep the record straight in terms of how basic analysis applies and speak ad nauseam about necessity to have a clue. Here are some examples of what I am talking about from this week. 

Will start with out famous and highly "competent" US military "analyst" (nah, I am screwing with you) Kyle Mizokami, who "analyzes" things for a number of news outlets and here is his take on the "sensational" story from Libya which The Times broke yesterday. Mizokami, being very excited, concludes that the S1 Pantsir captured by whatever faction fights in Libya is a, quoting Mizokami:

Last summer, a secretive U.S. military flight to Libya spirited away one of Russia’s most modern air defense weapon systems. The U.S. Air Force flew the Pantsir S-1 surface-to-air missile system, which Libyan government forces captured, out of the country on a military transport flight for parts unknown. The acquisition of a Pantsir, designed to defend against U.S. and NATO aircraft, is a windfall to the U.S. intelligence community.

This little bit alone contains a couple of open lies and that is the level of "reporting" in the US whenever dealing with anything Russia related. For starters.

Lie 1. Reports of three S1 Pantsirs being captured in Libya appeared as early as May 2020 (in Russian) and it was clear that once Turkish-supported forces took air base Al Watyia, which contained quite a few items of hardware transferred to General Haftar's forces by United Arab Emirates, there was very little doubt where the only intact AD complex will end up. 

In other words, what's the big deal? The United States operated and continues to operate a number of Soviet/Russian-build hardware items since very early times (Google Operation Moolah) and has at its possession even such things as earlier versions of S-300, Mi-24 helos and even MiG-29 As. So, what's so important about it? This didn't help the US in any way (except for the fairy tales narratives) and that brings us to Lie #2. 

Lie 2. There is no "a windfall" to US "intelligence community" since those UAE's S1s are export versions of this famous AD complex--that means they are significantly less capable than the Russian ones--and they are not new, like in old. Why? Very simple: the United Arab Emirates started to take delivery of S1s in 2003 and, as news have it, started to upgrade them in 2019, which is a testimony to the fact that these were older export versions of S1s which, in the words of Lieutenant-General Bizhev, a former Deputy Commander of Russia's Air Force Air Defense, is nothing to get worked over it. I quote:

"Большого ущерба для нашей боевой готовности не будет. Война есть война. Бывают трофеи. Бывает, что и нам что-то достается. Техника, которая идет на экспорт, отличается от той, что поступает в наши Вооруженные силы. Американцам придется долго изучать "Панцирь" и долго думать, чтобы сделать копию. Из-за ряда моментов и нюансов точную копию им не сделать. Думаю, что "Панцирь" восхитит американцев, но аналог им не сделать "

Translation: There will be no serious damage to our combat readiness. War is war. Trophies are expected in wars. Sometimes we also get trophies. The equipment which goes for export differs from what is delivered to our Armed Forces. Americans will have to study this Pantsir for a long time, as well as think for a long time on how to make a copy. For a number of reasons they will not be able to make an exact copy. I think Pantsir will create admiration among Americans, but they will not be able to make an analogue.

Why? Just a single fact--not only export versions DO differ from domestic ones, both in hardware and software solutions, but many key software solutions are literally hard-wired, making them useless for anyone who gets to them. Remarkably, the excitement in Western media re: this "secret" (I kid you not--it is "secret" alright) operation--sure, load a truck into the transport plane and fly it anywhere you want--shows a huge hardon as well as implicit admission to the superiority of Russian-made AD systems, which are in the league of their own. Don't believe me? Ask Turkey, a NATO member, what she thinks about S-400, export version no less. 

Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said it would be “very problematic” for Ankara to turn back on its purchase of Russian S-400 defense systems but expressed hope that a dispute with the United States on the issue could be resolved through dialogue. Akar also reiterated that Turkey was in talks with Russia on obtaining a second consignment of the S400 defence systems.

You will not find this news in Anglo-sphere unless you specifically look for it and even then--it takes some effort to find it from Al Arabya, no less, because no US media outlets will not touch it since US media are into propaganda and the butt-hurt management, not news reporting. This brings us to another point. Here is a delivery of the first serial SU-57 to a units of Russia's Air Force. You don't need to know Russian to see it. 

The United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) immediately reports that its facilities (in Russian) are being expanded for the serial production of this aircraft. 76 to be built in the first batch. Now, the Western media cannot ignore it and they do report this. But look what happens next. Russia started the development of the MiG-41 interceptor. And guess who appears immediately with their "opinions"--of course a bunch of clowns from CAST, such as Ruslan Pukhov--a guy who is an epitome (together with another clown, Barabanov--degree in librarian "science") of humanities "dumbed down" "analyst", who didn't serve a day in Armed Forces, never worked a day on a production floor, saw military on TV only and wouldn't know the difference between shit and shinola, but get this headline.

Is Russia’s defense industry too busy to take on another fighter jet project?

As Jim Kerry would say: 

But they continue:

According to Ruslan Pukhov, the director of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, the primary focus of Russia’s defense industry is to develop that engine. That main effort takes away much-needed resources for the new plane, he explained. 

My question at this stage is this: these people from CAST couldn't find their own ass with both hands in a brightly lit room and have zero competencies in any issue pertaining Russia's real economy, military industry, military technology, tactical, operational and strategic problems, yet they pass opinions on the matter of which they have zero understanding. I recall this very same Pukhov trying to scare Russia that, Russia cannot win war with the US but can deal serious damage (in Russian). Recall me constantly pointing out to the "Revelation Mode" in Russia's rearmament and changing defense posture. From what I gather, for all very real Russia's economic problems, only Russia and China restored industrial production and, in fact, started to grow, with Russia increasingly shifting towards processing and complex manufacturing (in Russian). So, what is the real size of Russia's real economy and, by implications, of her military-industrial complex? Your guess is as good as mine, the only thing which I can tell for sure is that the record of Russia's rearmament speaks for itself and we all can be damn sure that projects of such import as MiG-41 will get done. 

You know, the same as this 3M22 Zircon thingy whose state tests are to be finished this 2021 year and it will start serial deliveries in 2022, TASS reports. Believe me, I recall how for years, decades really, I had discussions, including among my classmates and acquaintances, many of them senior officers, many with a serious command experience, that future of Russian Navy will be in anti-shipping cruise missiles which will be hypersonic, AI-driven and will have a stunning range. I also debated some from this very CAST, especially when they tried to tell me fairy tales about... the US Navy. As it turned out, not only Russia's military-industrial complex was able to produce truly revolutionary weapon systems, but in a relatively short time remake Russia's Armed Forces into a deadly, super-modern, mighty fighting machine. All that, despite constant "opinions" of armies of those "experts" in Russia whose level of expertise was primarily of high school graduates. Now, when all this is happening in a front of our own eyes, be that Russia's return to a superpowerdom, to the United States finding itself in a deepest political and economic crisis, to a massive remake of the world order (sorry, Samuel Huntington), I kinda want to reiterate: "I told you so". 

Meanwhile, Kerch shipyard Zaliv just floated yet another pr. 22160 patrol ship Sergei Kotov.
 

Another angle:

So, is Russia's defense industry "too busy". You can bet your ass on it. It will get even busier. At least START was prolongated today. That's reassuring that we all can die now only six-seven times over, not the whole twelve or thirteen which will surely kill us. Whew.

Considering The Fact...

That SU-35's avionics suite has a lot in common with that of SU-57, one can only speculate on the ability of SU-35 to control such weapon system as Okhotnik (Hunter) as does SU-57 as is shown in video released by Russian MOD. 

Rumor has it that a single SU-57 can control a group of such UAVs, not just one. So, if SU-35 can do this--this means a dramatic synergistic effect for Russia's VKS strike capabilities. Of course, it is worth noting that in 2018 Popular Mechanics (as is totally expected) put in doubt capabilities declared for Okhotnik, but by now we should get used to this MO of Western media. The MO is an attempt to control narrative.

In related news, Russia confirmed (in fact it was already tested), 800-km range Onyx (P-800) missile, so, one should expect even longer range dedicated anti-shipping missiles of this type coming soon. In the end, nobody knows exactly what is in R&D phase in defense industry of Russia. Same Popular Mechanics, through world-renown "specialist in military affairs" Kyle Mizokami (yes, yes, he is an "expert" with degree in history and editing texts) proclaims this:

The Russian Navy will be the first to field a hypersonic weapon system, according to a prominent military analyst. The navy will test its new Zircon missile sometime next year, a missile that can allegedly fly at speeds in excess of 6,000 miles per hour. Zircon could be used to launch lightning fast strikes against targets on land or enemy battle groups at sea—including U.S. aircraft carriers—knocking them out in minutes. Naval authority H.I. Sutton, writing at Forbes, reports that the first launch of the Zircon missile from a submarine is set for next year. The test will take place onboard the Russian Navy’s new submarine K-561 Kazan. Sutton believes Russia is sufficiently advanced in hypersonic missile technology that it will be the first to field operational hypersonic weapons.

I don't know why it took both Sutton and Mizokami that long to figure this out but Russians reported on coming of a variety of Zirkon (3M22) types more than 8 months ago. But Mizokami, in the great tradition of humanities-"educated" military "experts" continues to repeat an utterly ridiculous and illiterate self-medicating BS such as that:

All is not lost, however. Defenders can buy back time against the hypersonic threat by placing their radar at a higher altitude, detecting missiles like Zircon at greater distances. Another helpful measure would be to automate the ship’s defense system, allowing an artificial intelligence to respond to threats automatically and without a “man in the loop,” which is a risky proposition if fighting takes place where civilian ships and planes might be present.  

I already "slightly" elaborated on this topic when commenting on another, The National Interest fame, fine "expert" Michael Peck's  delusions, that unless one can understand what dynamic loads will be required from the interceptor to even have a fleeting chance to stop 3M22, any talk about intercept by existing means is nothing but a kindergarten talk. Do those "experts" even understand how the triangle of velocities will form and what kind of energy will be required to hit 3M22? I don't think so. This is not to mention the fact that we still do not know, and, most likely, will not know for a while all flight profiles of Zirkon. Is there a sea-skimming mode there? Something tells me that there is--good luck intercepting this. 

Picture Speaks Louder Than Words.

This is Putin and Erdogan viewing SU-57 at MAKS-2019 (in Russian). It was announced yesterday that consultations on export version of SU-57s are already in progress. 

Courtesy of TASS.

Together with announcement of the start of the production of the mysterious PAK DA (new generation strategic bomber)--it all fits quite well into "revelation" mode by Russia regarding new weapon systems. I don't know what will the "export" version of SU-57 be, but I assume it will have "reduced" hyper-sonic package compared to domestic version, some "downgrades" to avionics and, possibly, will not have the ability to operate drones, such as the latest Okhotnik (Hunter). As was predicted before, Turkey will be afforded, apart from S-400, the access to export versions of Russia's advanced technologies. Implications and ramifications of this are immense, especially in geopolitical sense. 

UPDATE: don't forget to turn on English CCs. 

Fun Fact.

In accordance to TASS (in Russian) hyper-sonic complex Kinzhal (Kh-47M2) will be used at international competition Aviadarts-2019.   

РЯЗАНЬ, 9 августа. /ТАСС/. ВКС России впервые задействуют авиакомплекс "Кинжал" в ходе розыгрыша "Авиамикса" на конкурсе "Авиадартс" Армейских международных игр. Об этом журналистам сообщили в пятницу в пресс-центре Игр.

The complex will be used during simulation of the tactical episode Aviamix, in which MiG-31Ks carrying Kinzhal, and escorted by MiG-31BMs, will annihilate "enemy's" air defense systems for provision of the use of ground-attack and close air support aviation. Hm, I wonder why such an unrealistic scenario (wink, wink)--it seems so...so...far fetched. Nah, I am being facetious--the message is clear and it is damn serious. Those who need to know, already received this message. Meanwhile, I can totally imagine (I am one myself) huge swaths of arm chair strategists, analytical and intelligence communities globally salivating waiting for possible (???) shots of Kinzhal doing its Mach=10 thingy. This, I would love to see. 

In addition, SU-57s will conduct fighter escort for TU-22M3 and SU-34s during those launching missiles and bombs at targets. So, in general, to put it in simple language--this Aviadarts is about demonstrating one of the scenarios of annihilation of NATO's ABM and Air Defense systems in countries neighboring Russia.  Look at the list of participants: Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and, you guessed it, China. So, tomorrow, then.  

Of Course, He Doesn't.

Donald Trump doesn't see sanctions on Turkey right now. OK, then. 

Washington (AFP) - US President Donald Trump said Thursday he was not considering economic sanctions "right now" on Turkey after its major weapons purchase from Russia. "We're not looking at that right now," Trump told reporters. Speaking shortly afterward, he seemed to clarify: "We're looking at it. Very, very difficult situation for a lot of reasons." "We'll see what we do. We haven't announced that yet," he said. The United States said Wednesday that it was booting Turkey from its signature F-35 stealth fighter jet program after it defied warnings and began delivery of the S-400 missile defense system.

The issue here, of course, is extremely simple--sanction Turkey, and her drift away from NATO only accelerates, and there goes NATO as a viable military organization. Europeans will press on with their own European Armed Forces after that and, in general, it will be yet another Trump Administration's "win" for the United States. Isn't "winning" wonderful? Turks know what they are doing. As I stated before, and, let's be honest, that was very easy to predict, Russia already offered Turkey SU-35s as a "patch" deal until more serious military-industrial cooperation, involving some technology transfer will be hammered out between Turks and Russians. 

While Ahmed Aubodouth's (of The Independent) piece is full of butt-hurt delirium so characteristic of UK sewer, aka its Orwellian mass-media, let's be honest--even those morons understand that:

Turkey and Russia’s air defence deal is a nightmare for the US – and still Trump has no idea what Putin is up to

I deliberately, with my nose held, referenced this piece since even this guy gets it in terms of a nightmare. In other terms, however, he, as is expected, doesn't get it--Turkey is her own nation, with or without Putin's "evil" plans, and after Gulenist Coup in 2016 and, now obvious, inside job of shooting Russia's SU-24 down in 2015, or murdering of Russia's Ambassador  Karlov, it is clear that Erdogan knew who and how was behind those events. The rest of the piece is a standard "lefty" gibberish, including now tired bromides about European "values". But it is, indeed, a disaster for the US (as is the whole Trump's so called foreign policy, or lack thereof) and the issue here is not just political--it is, in the end, of the military-technological competition. What ALL Western media miss, of course, is the fact that Turkey is back into imperial game and is planning to lead Islamic world in the future. That is the main driver behind Erdogan's vision for Turkey and it goes without saying--one cannot deal with modern West which is becoming increasingly degenerate and not-agreement capable. One cannot also deal with defense of such vision as Turkish one by using American weaponry: a lot of it it is not that good, for starters, as F-35 demonstrated so vividly and, secondly, the United States can always, whenever she wants, shut off both equipment and logistical chains to entities which US dislikes. Turkey qualifies fully for such "treatment" because she increasingly asserts her own interests.

Russia is completely different in this respect. Russians are aware about what Turkey is up to and they have no problem with helping Turkey along her way to Asia greatness and even global relevance. And why not? Turks are striving and will continue to strive for this anyway and trying to arrest this development will merely increase the number of paroxysms and nobody in greater Eurasia really needs or wants that. Islam? Well, that is yet to be seen but one should not also forget that in Turkey Russia is staking a very valuable and voluminous market and hydrocarbons' hub. That, plus Bosporus and Dardanelles, aka Turkish Straits. Russia and her present Black Sea Fleet and what is shaping to be the new edition of 5th Operational Squadron (5 OPESK), not to mention Tartus in Syria, need those. Big, very big politics is involved. 

Would Trump sanction Turkey eventually? If he wants to accelerate solidifying Russia and China's positions within Eurasia, sure. But he has to be aware of the fact that this will increasingly shrink both American influence and, inevitably, her market for military toys. Russia, in this respect, knows really well what she is doing--Turkey will need many of those. Many of them already are and will be what neither NATO member, the United States included, can offer. Air Force Times may have their own doubts about SU-57 entering the picture after pretty much (I would assume, I could be wrong, of course--don't take it as a fact yet) settled deal with SU-35s for Turkey, otherwise Rostec's very own Chemezov wouldn't publicly offer them. 

In an official Rostec statement released Thursday, Chemezov was quoted as saying Russia is prepared to help Turkey procure advanced fighter jets. But the jets on offer are hardly an analogue of the stealthy F-35. Rather, Chemezov is offering up the Su-35, a heavily souped-up version of the Su-27."If our Turkish colleagues express a desire, we are ready to work out the deliveries of Su-35 fighter jets," Chemezov said.The Su-35 is a heavy multirole fighter jet and has recently become a popular export item. One of the jet’s standout features is extreme maneuverability. There are several videos online of Su-35s performing the demanding and impressive Pugachev’s Cobra maneuver.The jet had its combat debut in Syria in early 2016 to beef up escorts of Russian Su-24 and Su-34 fighter-bombers deployed in the conflict there. It was, ironically, part of Moscow’s message to Ankara after Turkish air defenses shot down a Russian Su-24 in November 2015.The Su-35 is not a stealth fighter, like Russia’s developmental Su-57. The Su-57 project is years behind schedule, and expectations have been downgraded several times in recent years. The Russian Air Force has focused on more Su-35 procurements while delaying the Su-57.

It has to be remembered that Erdogan openly spoke recently about not only SU-35s but SU-57s. Will Turkey get her hands on this combat aircraft? We all may discuss all combat virtues and faults of SU-57 whatever we want, but there is very little doubt that today it is the world's premier combat aircraft with unmatched capabilities, which make F-35 look like...ahem...turkey and Russia is putting this technology into series production with contract for the first 76 (three regiments) aircraft for Russian VKS signed just recently. So, Air Force Times needs to update itself. Now, one has to keep in mind Russia's military procurement truism: Russia never offers anything for sale abroad in terms of weapons unless new generation is already in IOC or nearing the conclusion of R&D phase. So, was Erdogan bluffing about S-500? Something tells me that there is a chance he didn't. Obviously not now, but down the road, why not? 

Meanwhile, Vladimir Zhirinovsky is Russia's main political clown and once he is gone, his political party (LDPR), essentially a one-man show, will dissolve itself naturally. But as any court jester, Zhirnovsky often speaks the truth, however in a bizarre, caricature form. So, who knows, what Russia has now in works. S-600, 700? Surely, Russia works on something which will follow S-500 which is also now in series production. And that brings us to this issue which I cover ad nauseam--in international relations combination of real military power and fair business is a deadly combination. Real power on the international arena exists ONLY when it rests on a foundation of a REAL military power. Real military power is a combination of factors among which the ability to produce most advanced and effective war machines is a defining feature. No machines--no power. Turks know this damn well. And as in any Asian culture the matter of prestige is of enormous importance. Ignorant filthy-moneyed Gulfie Arabs may have enough money to buy latest Rolls-Royce model or built (or rather pay for) pretty ugly post-modernist skyscrapers but it seems that Turks would rather drive Toyotas and manufacture cutting edge military technology with which they, later, will try to reclaim the glory of a Sublime Porte and for that they need to have more SU-57s and S-500 than Rolls-Royces or Lamborghinis. After all, there is always Aurus, as long as you have a desire to wait in line for couple of years. After all, this, allegedly omnipotent and omnipresent, dude rides in one. 

S-400 Is In Turkey.

So, Erdogan did stand his ground:

Turkey has received the first shipment of S-400 air defense missile system equipment from Moscow, defying pressure from Washington to scrap the arms deal with Russia.The components arrived at the Murted military airfield outside Ankara on Friday, the nation’s Ministry of National Defense said in a short statement. Russia’s Defense Ministry has also confirmed that the shipment has started and will continue as scheduled.Both countries signed a contract for the delivery of four S-400 batteries in 2017. The contract earned Ankara the ongoing row with Washington, which strongly opposes the deal, claiming the purchase of advanced Russian-made weapons undermines the security of NATO and goes against American interests.

I want to clear the air from the very start: Turkey knows what F-35 is and that is why she will "survive" cancellation of F-35 deliveries. F-35 for Turkey, who produced a number of parts for this aircraft, was primarily of industrial interest. So, all this contrived BS about security issues is just that, BS. Modern Air Defense complexes, such as S-400, even in their export version, can detect, track and shoot down all those VLO (Very Low Observability) targets such as F-35. The only "security issue" here for the United States was the fact that having "live" F-35 and S-400 simultaneously by the key member of NATO would have revealed publicly (in professional circles it is known well already) all massive faults with F-35 in general and ONLY-VLO-centric combat aircraft concept in particular. 

There is a lot, as was expected, of butt-hurt right now. Such as this:

Washington has threatened to remove Turkey from its F-35 fighter jet programme, giving Ankara until July 31 to cancel the S-400 purchase or have its pilots kicked off the training course and expelled from the US. But Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said after meeting US counterpart Donald Trump last month that he was confident Ankara would not face sanctions for buying the Russian missile system. Erdogan told Trump during their meeting on the margins of the G-20 meeting in Japan that former president Barack Obama did not allow Ankara to buy Patriot missiles -- an equivalent of the S-400s. Trump sounded convinced and said: "You can't do business that way. It's not good." The Turkish air force changed the name of the base in Ankara from Akinci to Murted after it was the centre of a 2016 failed coup attempt.

For starters: Patriot is NOT equivalent of the S-400 with S-400 being superior in its key performance characteristics. Secondly, I agree with Trump in a sense that "you can't do business like that" and this has nothing to do with Turkey but with the United States which is now in full economic warfare and political bullying with most of the world. The inevitable question thus--who in their mind would do business with the country which is ungovernable and both has no competitive systems to offer and may stop (or disable) their procurement any moment? Only spineless Europeans, maybe. India was explicit in basically telling the US to mind its own business re: India's $5 billion contract with Russia for S-400. Pakistan, India, many others, including Gulfies want S-400 and other Russian weapon systems. We know what the United States will do--she will try to sabotage any Russia's effort across the whole spectrum of international economic activity, be that Nord Stream-2 or arms trade. 

For Turkey, however, it seems, S-400 is not just military or, inevitably, geopolitical reorientation issue, with Ankara beginning to understand where her real interests lie. In the end, Turkey sees on the horizon the access to technology transfer not only for S-400 (its export version, of course) but eventually for export versions of SU-35, SU-57 and, inevitably, S-500 and who knows what else. So, there is a lot to be taken in at this moment but as I said many times, Russia has the ability and instruments for defense of larger Eurasia, plus, in Turkey's case, deliveries and deployment of S-400 boost Turkey's regional standing, including in disputes with Greece and Cyprus. It is enough to look at the map of the region to understand why S-400 changes Turkey's status in Eastern Mediterranean. As stated by Russian MoD (in Russian) the second gigantic An-124 will leave for Turkey with another set of S-400 equipment shortly, the balance, which is 120 missiles, will be delivered by the end of this Summer by sea-route. Second group of Turkish officers will start its training for S-400 this July in Russia. This comes to mind, inevitably;-))

Mueller says: you see how I turned you? In 5 minutes and no tricks.

I guess next step will be US sanctions against Russia's sovereign debt--this will accelerate Empire's decline greatly. Zugzwang is a bitch.  

Short Response To Michael Kofman.

Quote by Michael Kofman of Center for Naval Analysis:

"Low observation is far short of invisibility, but if this element of fifth-generation aircraft technology is 'paper fiction,' then why is Russia building the PAK-FA, dreaming about the PAK-DA, and the same can be said of Chinese prototypes in development."

Here, Kofman uses false equivalency and misses the point completely. Here are few things he misses:

1. PAK-FA has an official title and is known as SU-57 and is in series production, with the contract for first 76 aircraft signed few days ago;

2. Being Low Observable while boasting outstanding classic and modern, cutting edge, combat capabilities and performance beyond "Stealth" feature, such as SU-57 has, and having a flying embarrassment, aka F-35, built around primarily LO in radio diapason is not the same. Evidently Kofman does not recognize this crucial difference;

3. Kofman also fails to recognize the fact that in any potential NATO (USA)-Russia conflict, US "Stealth" aircraft would fly against Russia's Air Defense not against American one and here the capability abyss separating the two can not be larger. Kofman, as a "military analyst" should know that;

4. I omit here what I write non-stop about: modern air-defense signal processing and sensor fusion removes most, grossly overstated to start with, advantages of LO in a EW and sensor dense environment of the military peer. In the end, it is known fact that depending on the conditions even SU-35's Irbis radar "sees" F-22 at the ranges of up to 90 kilometers;

5. Finally, it is not a good practice for analyst to defer to the potential enemy, such as Russia, in terms of what she is doing and use it for propaganda, or self-medicating (most likely), purposes. In the end Israeli Air Force still cannot coherently explain what kind of bird damaged IAF's F-35 in Syria, same as why IAF prefers to launch at Syria (allegedly Iranian) targets from the international airspace. 

Moreover, ignoring a dramatic difference between the use of air power in Russia and the United States, especially projected against the background of radical doctrinal differences, is hardly a competent idea, unless, of course, it is used for entertainment of amateurs. But then again, for that--there is a rich and vibrant field of Clancyesque military "literature", where such theses, as Kofman advances, belong.        

As Was Predicted.

By me (sorry, can I get a credit for some shit at least once in a while?), the whole fuss is about this: 

ВАШИНГТОН, 15 мая. /ТАСС/. Правительство США считает, что новые российские ракетные комплексы "Сармат" и "Авангард" подпадают под действие Договора о мерах по дальнейшему сокращению и ограничению стратегических наступательных вооружений (ДСНВ). Об этом сообщила в среду заместитель госсекретаря США по контролю над вооружениями и международной безопасности Андреа Томпсон.

Translation: US Government considers new Russian missile complexes Sarmat and Avangard to be covered by the START Treaty, That was stated on Wednesday by Deputy Secretary of the State for arms control and international security Andrea Thompson. 

In more detail is here:

Washington also assesses that three other Russian systems - a nuclear-powered cruise missile, the Poseidon unmanned underwater vehicle and the Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile - constitute a "new kind of strategic offensive arms for purposes of New START," Thompson added.

Well, well, well, what do ya know. It took only a year, within which the United States finally understood ramifications of the new weapon systems. State Department could have saved a lot of time and money should they have read my books and warning I issued on March 5, 2018.

Putin’s message was clear: “You didn’t listen to us then, you will listen to us now”. After that he proceeded with what can only be described as a military-technological Pearl-Harbor meets Stalingrad. The strategic ramifications of the latest weapon systems Putin presented are immense. In fact, they are historic in nature.  

Never in modern history had a geopolitical balance shifted so dramatically in such a short time as it happened  on March 1, 2018, with Russia leading what became a REAL Revolution in Military Affairs. I cannot stop stressing two things:

1. Hyper-sonic weapons Russia presented are not Wunderwaffe but they are perilously (for the United States) close to it;

2. Now Putin (yesterday) launches new program on anti-hyper-sonic defense, plus Russia continues to roll out some mind-boggling systems such as EW complexes and now signs contract for first 76 SU-57s (Just in case). 

So, who knows what is coming after, say, such systems as S-500. But one thing is absolutely clear--the United States will do its utmost, including by means of "improving relations", or rather imitation of such improvement, in its futile attempts to slow down an ever widening technological gap which drives modern geopolitical realignment and return of Russia to the global stage as a superpower. US will try to put new existing and upcoming weapons systems under the limitations of all kinds of treaties but, if the US wants to taste own medicine, it should go back to 2002 to unilateral abrogation of 1972 ABM Treaty and the way Russia literally begged to preserve it. We know the rest of the story. Now, one in his own mind, must ask a simple question--will Russia repeat, as did Soviet Union, a suicidal and self-humiliating rejection of own national interests in a delusional pursuit of acceptance to the combined West, especially when having a decisive conventional and nuclear advantage over the United States? Well, I think we all know the answer. As I stated in conclusion then:

If warnings and the demonstration of Russian military-technological superiority will have an effect, as was the Russian intent from the beginning, some sensible conversation on the new world order may start between key geopolitical players. The world cannot afford any more a pretentious, self-aggrandizing and hollow bully which knows not what it does and threatens the world’s stability and peace. American self-proclaimed hegemony is over where it really matters for any real and perceived hegemon—the military field. It was over for some time now, it just took Putin’s speech to demonstrate the good old Al Capone truism that one can get much further with a kind word and a gun than with a kind word alone. After all, Russia did try a kind word alone, it didn’t work and the United States has only itself to blame.

P.S. I knew that Kinzhal was immediate game-changer.