... question of why 3M22 Zircon approached targets (in the video in the last post) at such a trajectory. If you search in this blog I wrote about it. So, here is demonstration:
As you can see in the picture--any modern missile has several phases and you can play with those phases anyway you need to, depending on the structure and the objectives of you strike. You may continue on phase 3 (flying high) until you reach Phase 7, or you can fly low all the way. It all depends on the type of the target and on the structure of the salvo. Also, all such missiles have all kinds of speed regimes. Take 3M54 Kalibr anti-shipping missile--it flies subsonic most of its 600 + range, but once it approaches the terminal (usually the range of target acquisition which can be anything between 40 kilometers--a radio horizon of most ships to anywhere up to 60-70) it accelerates to M=3 and begins to maneuver violently.
Zircon can maneuver but it doesn't have to in case of NATO AD which is absolutely incapable of handling high supersonic or TRUE (not some ballistic missile) hypersonic weapons. Let alone salvo of those. Russia merely testing some new approaches to blowing the shit out of remnants of 404 industry and all kinds of personnel (many from the US, UK, Germany, Poland) who are directing terrorist activities from 404 territory. Just to demonstrate what some of these weapons can do, here is Kiev today ...
... in related news, the US is also catching up in warfighting capability. Mantras are designed to make one feel better about oneself, about life, about what have you, they are not designed to alter physical reality, because unlike mantras physical reality is measurable ranging from quantitative to qualitative criteria. Bunch of morons from tabloids such as Foreign Policy, obviously, do not know that, nor do they know REAL criteria.
Foreign Policy is a neocon Russia-hating tabloid and they do not grasp basic things about hypersonic weapons. Now I have to rain on ... China's otherwise magnificent parade. The ONLY hypersonic weapon which is specifically designed to destroy surface naval targets is Russia's 3M22 Zircon. It IS NOT a quasi-ballistic anti-shipping missile such as Chinese YJ-21. These are two totally different classes of weapons and China doesn't have anything comparable to 3M22 Zircon which is a bona fide hypersonic anti-shipping cruise missile which continues to perform brilliantly both in tests and exercises and actual combat. The US is nowhere near in terms of technology such as YJ-21, it is not even in the same galaxy in terms of 3M22 Zircon.
As has been stated ad nauseam--there is nothing which NATO in general and the US Navy can counter Zircon with--zero, zilch, nada. As was stated by me also ad nauseam--new generation of Zircon extends envelope of Russian submarines and surface ships to such a degree that everything what is known about naval warfare simply ceases to apply. That's the REAL revolution in military affairs. Again, I will continue to post it until hell freezes over, a reminder what a single Zircon carrier and constantly growing Russian satellite constellation providing real time targeting, do:
Emphasis on "single". It doesn't mean that critical naval tasks such as ASW, anti-diversionary task and escorts are irrelevant, no--they are not and if anything else they only grow in significance and importance, but naval warfare as a whole is something new now, because surface fleets as we know them are over. When this thing sails (covered with additional AD by frigates and couple of SSNs/SSGNs), it can sink a whole Marine Royale, or couple of Carrier Battle Groups in a single salvo.
The US is nowhere near these capabilities and repeating stupid mantras changes absolutely nothing. Let the US, for starters, get to the IOC of now becoming a meme LRHW (Long Range Hypersonic Weapon), which is NOT anti-shipping missile, the technology race the US lost long time ago, putting all its eggs in the same basket of the naval air power not understanding implications of the Soviet Union deploying a revolutionary weapons system such as P-700 Granit in 1980. There is no catching up, especially in tactical-operational sense since ... oh, not again--Air Defense, and don't let me start on that.
... 3M22 Zircon at the land target 900 kilometers away.
Target was destroyed. Meanwhile, this monster is back from the sea trials (tests, one of many coming) where for the first time it tried its propulsion.
That's a whole lot of Zircons and other means of ... peaceful negotiations.
1,500 kilometer range at M=10+, remember? I, of course, am not talking about 3M14M with 4,500 kilometer range. But those are classics land attack subsonic missiles, Nakhimov also carries very many of them.
This Sunday Yegorov and his Military Approved team will show Zircon trials and there will be some revelations. One of them is already made in this small presentation segment--3M22 is not visible on radar.
This is the broadcast I was waiting for a long time.
In reality directly connected--I am about 3M22 Zircon. Its official combat range has been revealed: the surface launched version of 3M22 has a range of 1,500 kilometers (in Russian). And while VSU destroys dozens of Russian armored columns, kills Chechens in thousands and shoots down tens upon tens of SU-35s and SU-57s, and while many US military "experts" parade themselves as amateurs who never learned the subject, Kharkov is taken and mopping up operations are in progress, Berdyansk is taken (see the map), a gigantic cauldron in Donbass is almost formed. But yes, rumors of Russia getting ready to surrender, Gerasimov is fired and Anglo-American "advisers" will get them the "plan"... Ah, wait, it is all for CNN and fakes.
But reality is such that the real warfare, not some propaganda BS in public spaces (the only "warfare" the West is good at), aka psyops, changed so dramatically, that the only thing is left for the West is impose sanctions, which hurt the West more than Russia. Some people in the West know that but prefer to keep silent because most of the Western politics is conducted for the consumption of the brainwashed and uneducated public. Anything tangible in any field increasingly dissipates into the virtual reality and loses the property of being tangible. The only hope for Washington is to somehow "prolong" Russia's operation--this is the extent of strategic vision in D.C. But that is not how it works, they already saw how it works in Afghanistan, Vietnam, you name it--all those wars which the United States lost while remaining "the finest fighting force in history". They only think in cliches. An incredible paradox--the more you get your ass kicked, the more you humiliate your own country, the better you become at what you constantly fail at. An incredible "logic". But then again, I am on record for years--they don't learn. They need to constantly lie to themselves. And so they do. Details--later.
And the way a bunch of office plankton from ZeroHedge re-posted an utter BS from British tabloidThe Sun about this super-duper hyper-sonic missile "Dark Eagle" which, actually, doesn't exists as a weapon and I highly doubt it will in 2023. Here is the "picture" from The Sun, which we all know is a respectable expert publication (wink, wink) and which follows a fine British tradition of selling shit to its public packaged as news. Incidentally, same goes for US media.
So, here are my comments:
1. Dark Eagle does not exist as a weapon system yet. Some prototype was tested couple of times and I don't doubt very much that activity which happens right now in Germany, such as "deployment" of ground infrastructure for this future missile is nothing more than PR. In fact, I am almost 100% positive that it is a PR in a desperate attempt to address concerns about actual hyper-sonic gap between the US and Russia (and China), so the grandiose statements followed.
2. Obviously, for a Mach=17 missile, which is roughly 5.8 kilometers per second, even if to consider a short and slower boost phase, it should cover the range of exactly 2000 kilometers between Mainz-Kastel launch site in Germany and Moscow in: 2000/5.8=344 seconds or 5.7 minutes, which was stated originally in the low quality picture in The Sun. But then, something happened (a call?) and...
3. The time to reach Moscow was increased to 21 minutes 30 seconds. Why? Well, Russians know what the US is working on in this program (you can find it in Russian media space if you want to) and some military people pointed out that the United States is basically trying to recreate a longer version of Iskander and place some version of Common-Hypersonic Glide Body on top of it and it is not a Mach=17 weapon. Probably Mach=5-7 weapon accelerated by some inter-mediate range booster, maybe enlarged SM-3 motor or whatever will be used.
4. What it will not be--it will not be a real hyper-sonic cruise missile capable to strike moving targets on land and on the surface of the sea. In other words, it will be neither 3M22 Zircon nor Kinzhal which are bona fide cruise missiles (Kinzhal being aeroballistic one). So...
5. If we are talking about defense from such a missile which is not even in IOC and is primarily a PR action designed to forestall streaming in constantly news about successful tests of Russian and Chinese hyper-sonic weapons and technologies, so much so that warmonger and neocon-in-chief in the US Senate, Lindsey Graham demanded a classified briefing on the latest tests by Chinese of their glider. On a defense side from this future Dark Eagle missile, enough to take a look at S-300V4 and its organic9M82M/ME missile with its range of 200 kilometers and speed of 4,500 meters per second, that is M=13.2 to understand that Russia's AD/AM systems long ago covered the performance envelope of possible future US hyper-sonic weapons. In the end, I wrote today about S-500 already in serial production and deployment and S-550 which will be available in 2025.
6. But here we also hit this impenetrable cognitive wall, a deliberate semantic goal post moving device invented in the West to cover its very own loss of the arms race, which confuses people completely and they fail to grasp this tremendous difference between real hyper-sonic, atmosphere-riding, fully controllable and guided high precision weaponry such as 3M22 Zircon (or Kinzhal) designed to attack and annihilate any types of targets: moving and stationary, ground and sea, and all those primarily fixed ground targets attackers such as this Dark Eagle thing, not to speak of any other ballistic inter-mediate and long range missilery which is "hyper-sonic" by definition since flies with speeds of higher than M=5. But nobody calls International Space Station (ISS) a hyper-sonic space station.
7. And here is the main point: the United States is nowhere near in fielding high supersonic, forget about genuine hyper-sonic, anti-shipping and land-attack missile. The US tried once to develop an indigenous supersonic anti-shipping missile--the missile prototype came out so underwhelming in performance and so expensive that all attempts have been abandoned. The situation became so bad that famous scandal hit headlines in 1990s.
Let me tell you, the amount of advanced military tech both US and China got from Russia is immense. You can read the whole article about X-31s here. So, all in all, the US still doesn't know how to produce even a remote analog to nearing obsolescence P-700 Granit, let alone latest versions of P-800 Onyx. At this stage, hyper-sonic weapons of 3M22-class are simply beyond the reach as are the defense systems capable to deal with those with any, even minimal, chance of a success.
So, whenever I hear such "news" as Dark Eagle's hype, I understand that people are being, as is standard today, lied to in order to allay their concerns and give them some comfort with a notion that at least "something is being done". In reality however, this hype is designed to avoid a disclosure of the scale of the West's loss across the board from economy, to culture to military, not to mention the fact that media everywhere long ago stopped being news organizations and are either pushers of suicidal policies or providers of everyday entertainment in which only hype sells. Plus, of course, who can forget a good ol' panem et circenses. One gets what one paid for. As for Germany. German "elites" are bought by the US and, in fact, are people with no principles nor national pride. US will tell them to jump, they will ask how high. Germany is also no friend of Russia and the hatred of Russia among much of the political and intellectual class in Germany, as well as among some substantial segments of population is genuine, not to mention being exacerbated by German media which compete with British tabloids and US MSM for the title of the best collection of human and info trash. And this is my comment for today on this Dark Eagle thing.
Reminder: please support me on Patreon. I will post this piece there too.
Read the whole thing--it is excellent, as is usual for Armstrong. Then, there is a good piece by Tim Kirby on current US foreign policy, which he calls "surprising" because it is, in many important respects, repeats that of the Trump Admin. As Kirby astutely concludes:
Here is THE main point, as any Western politico with degree in political "science" (or politics), she cannot have a faintest idea what she supports or doesn't whenever it relates to any issue of warfare. And I mean zero, zilch--you cannot, you simply cannot, explain even in the most comprehensive briefings to any person with degree in "politics" and experiences with running basic fiscal-political "protocols" of the West's regional and national election pipelines, how tactical translates into operational, and how operational translates into strategic and, essentially, into the political level when war is involved. You could do this in 1914 and 1945, you still could do it in 1955, however barely, and then "something" happened--it became very hard, and by mid-1960s it all became an alien language to the main shakers and movers of Western politics--people whose only skill in life is how to re-elect oneself or how to navigate regional and national bureaucracies. Don't take it from me, take it from the US armed forces general with Ph.D in physics. These two pages written by a man who knows what he is talking about should be made mandatory for reading by 100% politicos and by about 99% of the so called military "experts".
In other words, no contemporary Western politician can have any sound idea on matters which, actually, are the main drivers behind global affairs, because they do not understand modern warfare. They cannot, you need a solid math, physics, engineering and tactical-operational experience as an officer to be able to grasp a profound connection between foreign policies of nations and the global power balance. Latiff laments that "serious scholarly books are written about war and its consequences, but the vast majority ignores them." Tell me about it. Can you imagine trying to explain to Rachel Maddow or this Germany's "defense minister" how the Probability Theory and Theory of Operations applies to modern politics in the times of hyper-sonic weapons, netcentric warfare, AI elements and over-the-horizon surveillance and anti-satellite weapons. Good luck with that, I heard some "political science" courses even include such things, of course, as Game Theory and... and... here is John Mearsheimer of University of Chicago and, allegedly, "realist" teaches this course:
The issue here is not that Mearsheimer can hold those seminars, it is the fact that despite him being a graduate of the USMA at West-Point, class of 1970, he hardly qualifies for any serious military input because his record of "conclusions" regarding the only country which can wipe the US off the map, Russia, in the last decade demonstrates his complete detachment from the geopolitical reality in so far as the global balance of power and technological revolution goes. Which his latest disastrous and empty treatise proves without a shade of a doubt. A nauseating meandering dabbling into the pile of contemporary Western political and foreign relations theories none of which ever predicted anything. Not to mention the fact that few in the West really know how things work precisely because the only thing they know is how to obfuscate facts to fit narratives. We are not like that, we have some clue and there is no reason to produce a pile of BS for the sake of own academic sinecure, no matter how risible this doctrine-mongering is. In 99% of the cases it is preposterous.
Now, that we have re-established the fact that Western politicos do not have a clue beyond general political, primarily media-driven, issues and that they can like or dislike anything related to warfare only based on how they are briefed and are told by people with a clue, let's explain now how even knowledge of basic facts of say Search Theory, ASW and physics and math of the modern warfare, namely Salvo model (missile exchange) gives us immediately an exceptionally clear glimpse of this capricious animal of strategy. You see, you need to know not only what to do, you need to know HOW things work and, especially, WHY they work. No course in history, political "science" or social sciences, supported by studying the statistics of GIGO (Garbage In-Garbage Out) can answer this.
Enter delivery systems and Washburn's classic equation for the so called Random Search in case the "flaming" datum (in our case the position of the submarine) is obtained because... how about the sub launches its anti-shipping missiles and gives itself away. Here we have to review two scenarios.
a) the war breaks out with a very short escalation (threatening period) phase which sees a "moderate" ASW/Patrol aircraft presence in the area;
b) the breakout of hostilities is preceded by a fairly lengthy escalation (threatening period) phase which sees gradual but fairly fast increase of the ASW forces in the area.
As you may have guessed it already, we are viewing possible (hopefully, impossible) conflict between NATO and Russia. Assume that in both scenarios you have this operational situation--it is not "strategic" yet, it will become soon.
The five red circles (circumferences, really) are theoretical positions (done to be best of my ability to a real scale) of Russian Navy's SSGNs all carrying both 3M22 Zircon and 3M14 Kalibrs with P-800 Onyx. The range of roughly 950 kilometers (red circumferences) is given for 3M22. The area of each such circle is roughly 2,000,000 square kilometers (which is about the area of Greenland) and submarines, of course, are located at the centers of those circles. Small blue circumferences, however, in each of the circle are not related to subs, they merely show the scale (of around 50 kilometers) of the range of detection and main caliber gun battles between battleships of the closing period of WW II and they are there for comparison.
The blue line which splits in two with the arrows at the ends are general routes of the US convoys to deliver reinforcements to NATO allies in case of the war getting (let's assume) into the more-or-less protracted mode, for now without nuclear weapons and the US navy is forced to fight yet another "Battle of the Atlantic". The straight green dashed line and two green rectangles (absolutely NOT to scale) are coverage at the ranges and hours on station (that is conducting some sort of ASW search) by a single P-8 Poseidon. As you might expect, the United States can fast increase the number of the ASW/Patrol aircraft in the area and we will talk about this too, but at this stage ANY scenario, even seemingly most realistic, is viewed ONLY for given the frame of reference, which Western decision-makers lack completely. What also has to be understood--those circumferences and rectangles they are not static, in real life they move, sometimes very actively, especially against the background of such advances in submarine quieting which allows dramatically increase "silent" velocities while being able to use acoustic detection capabilities without much interference. We discount here weather and hydrology factors for now.
I once elaborated on this formula which is applicable to the so called Random Search (which also is applicable to a Parallel Search) and there is literally nothing complex in this formula despite the integral sign. As we already established z(t) is a number of detections by whatever (ASW Helo, ASW/Patrol aircraft etc.). So:
R--is a detection range of our "cookie cutter" sensor. You may ask what the hell a kitchen device has anything to do with submarine hunting. The answer is very simple--all cookie cutters have sharp and well defined edges which are unchanged. In real life, of course, the detection ranges of any sensor, be that radar, sonar or FLIR are subjects to change due to weather conditions, radio-permeability for radar, hydrology for sonar and as a result, for our theoretical calculations we have to assume that ranges do not change and are as sharp and well-defined as the edges of a cookie cutter. (Hint: ASW is the most complex and daunting task in naval warfare). One of my favorite sketches.
Ranges, of course, vary--if radar range is influenced, among many other things, by the elevation of its antenna and under some conditions could either lose or gain up to 20-30% of its range and its "cookie cutter" shape is circle, the range of, say, MAD, Magnetic Anomaly Detector is a "strip" whose width is the double range and it is not that huge (which will matter later) and varies say between 500 meters to 2 kilometers. Let's assume that it is one kilometer for the ease of calculations, so, in this case MAD's range will be 1 kilometer x 2 = 2 kilometers. It is all simplified, of course.
V--of course is velocity because our sensors move: radar on ship moves with the speed of a ship and leaves behind itself a "strip" with the area of V x 2R, because any sensor looks on "both sides" thus doubling its range (see above about MAD's range). If our radar detection range on the ship is 40 kilometers and the ship moves with the speed of 20 kilometers per hour, that means in one hour it will "cover" the area of 40 x 2 x 20 x 1= 1, 600 square kilometers. If the double width (2R) of our MAD is 2 kilometers, then P-8 Poseidon, flying with speed of (roughly) 400 kilometers per hour, will cover the area of 2 x 400 = 800 square kilometers.
This "scary" Pi x y(t)^2 is nothing more than the formula of the area of the circle you know from the middle school and it is nothing more than 3.14 x r^2, where our r in this case is an expanding radius of a search circle (with the center of datum) at any given time (t) which is velocity of submarine time time at any given moment starting from the moment Tau (a funny lower case letter at the lower limit of integration of our integral) and it is nothing more than the delay time, between the time of datum--the sub blows its own cover by a missile launch--and the moment helicopter or P-8 Poseidon (or P-3 Orion) arrives at the circle to start its search, or hunt. Say, the sub launched missiles and was detected (Flaming Datum) at noon, 12:00, Poseidon arrives at the expanding circle at 12:30, our tau (delay) thus is 0.5 hours. If the submarine was moving all this time with "let's save our asses" speed (velocity) of 20 kilometers per hour (roughly 12 knots) then the radius of the circle in which Poseidon will have to search is y(t) = 20 x 0.5 = 10 kilometers, thus the area of this circle is Pi x y(t)^2 = 3.14 x 10^2=3.14 x 100 =314 square kilometers.
This is all tactics but it becomes a serious operation with enormous strategic ramifications once the search (hunt) starts because at this stage a truckload of factors begins to affect all this chaos and we get to see the numbers which today can make any serious American military professional feel very uncomfortable, because once the latest anti-shipping cruise missiles such as 3M22 or Onyx get involved, mathematics becomes insane and ASW operations begin to look daunting, to put it mildly. Because Probability of Detection (POD) of the enemy (Russian) submarine, which is calculated like this:
Is the major reason behind many recent statements and actions on NATO's part, because it is difficult to fight a war, when you know that you will get defeated badly. But about this later. Waiting for your feedback if I need to continue with this, because real analysis has to have some numerical framework, which is also comprehensible to a well educated layman, who can do basic calculations.
To Be Continued (maybe?)...
P.S. Someone may say that I gave John Mearsheimer a bad rap, I don't know how anyone who for the last 10 years was on record about "mediocre" Russian Armed Forces and who obviously lacks understanding of physics and mathematics of delivery systems, which ARE the foundation of a nuclear deterrence (anyone can make warhead today), can teach and hold any seminars on nuclear deterrence. Can he answer the question if Kinzhal is a deterrent?
The obvious conclusion is that Zircon flies well, and performs as expected, which means that it will first see deployment (as was expected) on surface ships and later on subs. But that is not what attracted my attention. Suddenly this news is "breaking news"
As is expected, maroons from Western media outlets, including Russia's native ignorant journos who do not know shit from shinola, rely on what Russian finance ministry "said"--the statement which was already ridiculed and completely debunked by energy specialists with actual degrees and experience in energy sector (not in "finances") and against the background of an astronomic spike in prices for natural gas, LNG and coal, which China is siphoning today from markets like there is no tomorrow. That is why EU doesn't get what it needs in terms of...pretty much anything, while China's "sparsely" populated (only 100 million people, wink, wink) three North Eastern provinces are facing shutdowns in electricity and heat supply. Hundreds of industrial plants have been shut down completely or ordered to operate on a reduced schedule. It is the energy apocalypse in China and recall my table from the last post--China is in red with a severest energy deficit for such a colossal economy. Add here misguided attempts on "green" energy and voila'.
Putin merely accumulates huge revenues from hydrocarbons' export for much more than rainy day but for a catastrophe which "green" energy is already bringing to Europe and other places. You know, financing cutting edge weapons and R&D, and already immense programs of industrial construction--Russia just started to build a gigantic plant in Tula which will make Russia 100% independent in extracting Vanadium from byproducts of metallurgy. Currently Russia still sends some portion of byproducts to Austria and Czechia for processing because Ural plant for Vanadium doesn't cover all Russia's needs. And this is just one example. Not to mention the fact that Russia's infrastructure projects are financed already. As I said, you want to be a superpower--get your energy in order. You want to kill the economy of your country--go "green". But then again, it is impossible to explain to lawyers, MBAs and political activists with degrees in political science and gender studies who primarily drive "green" ideology and constitute West's political "elites" that physics is a complex science and that they better learn basic manufacturing processes of such things as wind generators and solar panels, not to speak of all those new types of batteries which, allegedly, will be able to resolve issues of accumulation. Good luck with that. You will have more luck explaining to 6-year old the meaning of life, than explaining some European social-democrat what Ohm's Law is. And since when what Russia does with her sovereign wealth fund is such a big deal in the West. Come on, we all know that Russia's economy is "smaller than that of Texas" and that Russia produces nothing.
I've seen sheer idiocy in my life, especially on the eve of the Soviet collapse, but this West's "thing", holy shit--I never thought one could be that stupid. I was wrong.
Apart from a very sad news of Charlie Watts of Rolling Stones passing away-RIP Charlie-the day started with some "bang".
1. Borisov confirmed that construction of SSGNs of project 885M Yasen will continue beyond the number which is under current contract (in Russian): 9 subs in the first batch, 4 of them already completed or nearing completion and 5 being under construction. Per my humble opinion--a very wise decision since Yasens' performance and modernization potential are impressive.
3. First batch of serial T-14 Armata MBT has been delivered to the army and deliveries will continue in 2022. Evidently they finished polishing the system.
4. The rest... Will see in coming days.
Meanwhile Russia, China, Vietnam, many others do real Olympics--tank biathlon. NATO and the US have been invited many times to take part--declined.
Some say this is the most Russian thing ever. Well, Russians love tanks, no doubt about it. It is definitely fun for participants and spectators type of sport. I will try to learn more about this robot which is the sentinel for check points Robo-C (in Russian) later. I would hate to end up in situations like these:
You knew, didn't you, that this clip was coming, right? LOL. Damn, Ronnie Cox was always such a proverbial villain in all movies.
...arguably the most important event in combat aerospace this year. I am talking, of course, about the unveiling of this Russia's "mysterious" single-engine fighter which is few hours away. Since this (or parallel) question popped up on this blog, when I was reacting to the article in Drive, I need to make some clarification.
1. Whatever the aircraft will be unveiled tomorrow (for some--today) at MAKS-2021, this aircraft will be primarily the result of a very long discussion in Russia re: single-engine fighter. Russians always admired USAF F-16 which is still in service, albeit is nearing obsolescence. Russia's last single-engine fighter was MiG-23 Flogger which got a bad rap in the West but was loved by Soviet pilots. "Checkmate" moniker refers primarily to F-35 and not to some "future" aircraft from South Korea, China or Turkey. South Korean and Turkish aircraft cannot be "responded to" because they do not exists as viable aircraft yet. China has a single-engine aircraft but it is not a "fifth generation" fighter. The new Russian aircraft will be eventually driven by brand-new Item (Izdelie) 30 engine which will increase its performance and the Checkmate in this case is addressed to the USAF F-35 namely in combat performance. Especially, since rumor has it, it is a platform which has a lot in common with SU-57 and thus is easier manufactured in large numbers.
2. Russia seldom creates something special purely for export, those are always degraded (aka monkey models) variants of Russia's technology for domestic use, but better performance (almost guaranteed) by this fighter, with dramatically lower price (100% so) and no strings attached (146%) when compared with F-35, definitely creates a new reality for F-35 as an export item. So, that means that the aircraft we may see tomorrow will be primarily for Russia's VKS, with its "simplified" version for export.
There WILL BE a copious amount of butt-hurt tomorrow, but that is expected. It is something like John Kirby's response to the issue of Russia's yet another successful test of 3M22 Zircon yesterday. As Kirby stated at Pentagon's briefing, it is a threat because Russians can stick a nuclear warhead on Zircon, while the United States doesn't develop such systems. There is a lot to be said about it, but, hey, that's your media (a euphemism for BS) battlefront today. Admiral Gorshkov however, successfully launched one and couple-three minutes later it struck the target 350+ kilometers away, averaging M=7 during the flight.
State test (which are final acceptance tests) for 3M22 are planned for August. So, tick-tock, tick-tock....
A-ha, now they finally state something closer to the truth about 3M22 Zircon. As TASS reports, not only Zircon will begin operational procurement in 2022, as opposed to 2023, but:
Translation:the range of Zircon when "working" on land targets is 1500 kilometers, on surface targets--slightly less.
Now recall this map:
Look at the 1000 mile range curve and make your own conclusion. The acceleration of the final tests for Zircon is a good indication of both:
1. Maturity of technology;
2. Russia getting ready for possible change of the posture on the high seas. And elsewhere.
Meanwhile Pentagon released a footage of Iranian ballistic missiles striking US base after the United States assassinated General Soleimani.
Considering the fact that Trump chose an option of assassination, in blatant violation of the international law, the irresponsible act achieved exactly the opposite effect. Instead of intimidation of Iran, it illuminated US weakness militarily, exposing US forces operating in the region without any viable defense system capable to mitigate a missile strikes at US forces by any competent enemy. Iran turned out to be the one and demonstrated fully its capability to disrupt any military plans by the US, at Israel's behalf. Trump and his headless Secretary of the State Pompeo wanted to look "tough". They were made to look fools, which they are. In fact, Iran did, by means of limited demonstration, what I wrote about 4 years ago but in relation to Russia and Khmeimim base.
It seems that the butt-hurt level in US media re: Russia is off the scale lately. When I say "I told you so", I do it not to feed my ego, however large, but to make a point that to speak on matters of practical geopolitics, let alone modern warfare, military and engineering background, not to speak of human and professional integrity--the only filter which separates facts from propaganda--is a must. No, it is a MUST. But that is precisely what modern, not just American but European, Russian etc. pop-military "analysis" and military porn sphere lacks. Luckily, my blog and my books keep the record straight in terms of how basic analysis applies and speak ad nauseam about necessity to have a clue. Here are some examples of what I am talking about from this week.
Will start with out famous and highly "competent" US military "analyst" (nah, I am screwing with you) Kyle Mizokami, who "analyzes" things for a number of news outlets and here is his take on the "sensational" story from Libya which The Times broke yesterday. Mizokami, being very excited, concludes that the S1 Pantsir captured by whatever faction fights in Libya is a, quoting Mizokami:
This little bit alone contains a couple of open lies and that is the level of "reporting" in the US whenever dealing with anything Russia related. For starters.
Lie 1. Reports of three S1 Pantsirs being captured in Libya appeared as early as May 2020 (in Russian) and it was clear that once Turkish-supported forces took air base Al Watyia, which contained quite a few items of hardware transferred to General Haftar's forces by United Arab Emirates, there was very little doubt where the only intact AD complex will end up.
In other words, what's the big deal? The United States operated and continues to operate a number of Soviet/Russian-build hardware items since very early times (Google Operation Moolah) and has at its possession even such things as earlier versions of S-300, Mi-24 helos and even MiG-29 As. So, what's so important about it? This didn't help the US in any way (except for the fairy tales narratives) and that brings us to Lie #2.
Lie 2. There is no "a windfall" to US "intelligence community" since those UAE's S1s are export versions of this famous AD complex--that means they are significantly less capable than the Russian ones--and they are not new, like in old. Why? Very simple: the United Arab Emirates started to take delivery of S1s in 2003 and, as news have it, started to upgrade them in 2019, which is a testimony to the fact that these were older export versions of S1s which, in the words of Lieutenant-General Bizhev, a former Deputy Commander of Russia's Air Force Air Defense, is nothing to get worked over it. I quote:
Translation:There will be no serious damage to our combat readiness. War is war. Trophies are expected in wars. Sometimes we also get trophies. The equipment which goes for export differs from what is delivered to our Armed Forces. Americans will have to study this Pantsir for a long time, as well as think for a long time on how to make a copy. For a number of reasons they will not be able to make an exact copy. I think Pantsir will create admiration among Americans, but they will not be able to make an analogue.
Why? Just a single fact--not only export versions DO differ from domestic ones, both in hardware and software solutions, but many key software solutions are literally hard-wired, making them useless for anyone who gets to them. Remarkably, the excitement in Western media re: this "secret" (I kid you not--it is "secret" alright) operation--sure, load a truck into the transport plane and fly it anywhere you want--shows a huge hardon as well as implicit admission to the superiority of Russian-made AD systems, which are in the league of their own. Don't believe me? Ask Turkey, a NATO member, what she thinks about S-400, export version no less.
You will not find this news in Anglo-sphere unless you specifically look for it and even then--it takes some effort to find it from Al Arabya, no less, because no US media outlets will not touch it since US media are into propaganda and the butt-hurt management, not news reporting. This brings us to another point. Here is a delivery of the first serial SU-57 to a units of Russia's Air Force. You don't need to know Russian to see it.
The United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) immediately reports that its facilities (in Russian) are being expanded for the serial production of this aircraft. 76 to be built in the first batch. Now, the Western media cannot ignore it and they do report this. But look what happens next. Russia started the development of the MiG-41 interceptor. And guess who appears immediately with their "opinions"--of course a bunch of clowns from CAST, such as Ruslan Pukhov--a guy who is an epitome (together with another clown, Barabanov--degree in librarian "science") of humanities "dumbed down" "analyst", who didn't serve a day in Armed Forces, never worked a day on a production floor, saw military on TV only and wouldn't know the difference between shit and shinola, but get this headline.
According to Ruslan Pukhov, the director of the Centre for Analysis of
Strategies and Technologies, the primary focus of Russia’s defense
industry is to develop that engine. That main effort takes away
much-needed resources for the new plane, he explained.
My question at this stage is this: these people from CAST couldn't find their own ass with both hands in a brightly lit room and have zero competencies in any issue pertaining Russia's real economy, military industry, military technology, tactical, operational and strategic problems, yet they pass opinions on the matter of which they have zero understanding. I recall this very same Pukhov trying to scare Russia that, Russia cannot win war with the US but can deal serious damage (in Russian). Recall me constantly pointing out to the "Revelation Mode" in Russia's rearmament and changing defense posture. From what I gather, for all very real Russia's economic problems, only Russia and China restored industrial production and, in fact, started to grow, with Russia increasingly shifting towards processing and complex manufacturing (in Russian). So, what is the real size of Russia's real economy and, by implications, of her military-industrial complex? Your guess is as good as mine, the only thing which I can tell for sure is that the record of Russia's rearmament speaks for itself and we all can be damn sure that projects of such import as MiG-41 will get done.
You know, the same as this 3M22 Zircon thingy whose state tests are to be finished this 2021 year and it will start serial deliveries in 2022, TASS reports. Believe me, I recall how for years, decades really, I had discussions, including among my classmates and acquaintances, many of them senior officers, many with a serious command experience, that future of Russian Navy will be in anti-shipping cruise missiles which will be hypersonic, AI-driven and will have a stunning range. I also debated some from this very CAST, especially when they tried to tell me fairy tales about... the US Navy. As it turned out, not only Russia's military-industrial complex was able to produce truly revolutionary weapon systems, but in a relatively short time remake Russia's Armed Forces into a deadly, super-modern, mighty fighting machine. All that, despite constant "opinions" of armies of those "experts" in Russia whose level of expertise was primarily of high school graduates. Now, when all this is happening in a front of our own eyes, be that Russia's return to a superpowerdom, to the United States finding itself in a deepest political and economic crisis, to a massive remake of the world order (sorry, Samuel Huntington), I kinda want to reiterate: "I told you so".
Meanwhile, Kerch shipyard Zaliv just floated yet another pr. 22160 patrol ship Sergei Kotov.
Another angle:
So, is Russia's defense industry "too busy". You can bet your ass on it. It will get even busier. At least START was prolongated today. That's reassuring that we all can die now only six-seven times over, not the whole twelve or thirteen which will surely kill us. Whew.
Gremyashchiyfights air-defense battle with both Redut missile system and main caliber gun. You can see the poor Combat Department-2 (BCH-2, missile-artillery department) commander, lieutenant-captain, sweating it out. I assume lieutenant-commander, Captain 3rd Rank, next to him is F-2 (Missile-artillery flag specialist) of the brigade. So, the fun is had by all, not really, LOL.
This class of the corvettes of Russian Navy is immensely powerful for its size and now we know that 3M22 Zircon is near. These corvettes are also carriers of this weapon and Admiral Gorshkov continues to launch Zircons as if there is no tomorrow. Now, the land target was hit 350+ kilometers away with the missile exceeding M=8.
So, it looks like Zircon is entering first line service smoothly, since MoD confirmed that all Zircon launches have been successful. I guess the message here is very clear. Well, that's the portion of naval porn for ya.
3M22 launched again couple of days ago by Admiral Gorshkov, Russia's MoD provided video today. Reached M=8+, hit the floating target at 450+ kilometers range.
Pay attention to how carefully cloudy weather is chosen for launches. In related news Kazan launched 3M14 couple of days ago at the target at 1000+ kilometers, now she is getting ready for the launch of Zircon. Generally, one can see from the videos of two Zircon launches which were provided by Russia's MoD the insane acceleration which is achieved by the missile upon the exit from VLS (3C14).
As TASS reports (in Russian), upcoming next launch of 3M22 Zircon from Admiral Gorshkov will be from the distance of 1,000 kilometers and the missile will hit a target imitating enemy's ship. This is one of the remaining three launches this year and I anticipate submarine launches to start soon, if not already this year. Unlike most "liberal" (in reality radically anti-Russian) media outlets such as RBC, Kommersant etc. TASS and Ria have real contacts and sources in Russia's Defense Ministry and provide a tribune for actual Russian military experts who have a grasp of the issue on a fundamental level. Such as the issue of targeting. Last launch of Zirconfrom the distance of 450 kilometers also hit the target imitating enemy's surface ship. So, launching at the maximum announced (we don't know the real range, could be way in excess of 1,000 kilometers) range is a natural progression of tests.
Also worth noting was yet another launch few days ago of officially titled "new anti-missile" missile, which, we all assume to be A-235 Nudol and this one also was spectacular and on the trajectory which tells a story of Russia being ready to face any perspective hypersonic threat from the West.
Like the one national security adviser O'Brien issued to Russia few days ago with non-existent US hypersonic weapons. Truth is, we do not even know exactly what is being demonstrated but Russian MoD does this on purpose to keep real professionals on the "other" side aware of what they are facing. I can assure you all, they get the message. Recall, Revelation Mode--it will continue.
And what can be a better present to a Supreme Commander (Vladimir Putin celebrates his b-day today) than sinking a floating target 450+ kilometers away by newest M=8 3M22 Zircon anti-shipping (or anything anti) missile. Now we can see it for the first time being launched by Admiral Gorshkov.
As you can see the missile starts similar to venerable P-800 Oniks, orients itself at the initial flight-path, then proceeds, probably M=4-5, to an elevation of 28 kilometers and then accelerates to M=8+ towards target. In other words, good luck detecting and intercepting even single 3M22, the salvo of 4--laughable. Valery Gerasimov was only happy to wish President Putin all the best (in Russian) and it will be still a long time before we will learn actual parameters of this weapon. I can guarantee that they will be even more mind-boggling. Here is a video.
I think it will be fairly soon (I don't know--a year +) that we will be given a more detailed look at Zircon. But note this--the warfare as you know it is over. Revolution in military affair about which many spoke so much has finally happened. People from Russia who saw many Soviet 1917 October Revolution movies will understand why this phrase is funny.
The beauty of such forums as Army-2020 that they are used also as a platform for signing new contracts and to reveal new info on weapon systems coming into production. New details emerge all the time and as TASS reports (in Russian) latest info on 3M22 Zircon testing is that the new test is planned this coming September and Admiral Gorshkov will be launching a salvo. After this pretty mundane info TASS divulged that more than 10 launches at sea targets has been conducted between 2015 and 2018 which gives pretty good idea about the dynamics of the development of this weapon and removes any speculations--largely from the Western "analytical" (euphemism for BS narrative mongers) organizations and Russia's very own fanboys--on the nature and capabilities of this missile. Zircon, same as Kinzhal, is a universal missile capable of both anti-shipping and land-attack modes at velocities exceeding M=9. I know, there is so much butt-hurt in the West, especially in D.C., but this cannot be helped--it is what it is.
In the news which sort of got drowned among all this political noise, revealing of a funny Russian missiles Germeswent almost unnoticed, but professionals really took a note (in Russian). This shaitan weapon flies to 100 kilometers range with almost hyper-sonic speed, has its own targeting swarm of drones and rumor has it even an active seeker, that is "shoot-and-forget" weapon. Well, it is shoot and forget with passive IR guidance anyway. Albeit officially it is semi-active guidance on the terminal. This is... drum roll... an anti-tank missile.
As tests revealed it takes one missile to finish off any tank. Here is your mathematical expectation, Omega=1. One can only imagine the effect such a system can have on any tank force getting ready to deploy to the front line, considering the fact that CEP for this missile when launching to a maximum range of 100 kilometers is 50 centimeters, that is roughly 20 inches. With its speed of M=4+, good luck intercepting it. I am telling you, this signal processing thingy develops with an insane speed. Again, Real Revolution in Military Affairs as it unfolds in a front of our very own eyes. Can you imagine what is still in the secret labs or on drawing boards in Russia? We may only speculate. Ah, yes, Germes-A can also be installed on aircraft ranging from attack helicopters to attack fixed wing. It is already in service, was used in Syria, and, if that wasn't bad enough, this thing can shoot down aircraft. Can you imagine modernization potential for this weapon?
Why Turkish SOM, which is a cruise missile--and you guessed it, subsonic--was bundled together with Germes beats me completely, two absolutely different weapons. Even Israeli "analog" is not even in the same league and, as you may have guessed it, subsonic. Speed decides the issue, range too, and the West has nothing comparable. I can only reiterate with quoting, again, Douglas Macgregor.
Yep, a real war is not Hollywood and I don't think, in fact I am 100% positive, the United States (forget about pathetic Europe) is simply not ready and will not be for it and that is the danger, of which I speak for years. But this is a separate topic.
