Zircon, Again.

The beauty of such forums as Army-2020 that they are used also as a platform for signing new contracts and to reveal new info on weapon systems coming into production. New details emerge all the time and as TASS reports (in Russian) latest info on 3M22 Zircon testing is that the new test is planned this coming September and Admiral Gorshkov will be launching a salvo. After this pretty mundane info TASS divulged that more than 10 launches at sea targets has been conducted between 2015 and 2018 which gives pretty good idea about the dynamics of the development of this weapon and removes any speculations--largely from the Western "analytical" (euphemism for BS narrative mongers) organizations and Russia's very own fanboys--on the nature and capabilities of this missile. Zircon, same as Kinzhal, is a universal missile capable of both anti-shipping and land-attack modes at velocities exceeding M=9. I know, there is so much butt-hurt in the West, especially in D.C., but this cannot be helped--it is what it is. 

In the news which sort of got drowned among all this political noise, revealing of a funny Russian missiles Germes went almost unnoticed, but professionals really took a note (in Russian). This shaitan weapon flies to 100 kilometers range with almost hyper-sonic speed, has its own targeting swarm of drones and rumor has it even an active seeker, that is "shoot-and-forget" weapon. Well, it is shoot and forget with passive IR guidance anyway. Albeit officially it is semi-active guidance on the terminal. This is... drum roll... an anti-tank missile. 

As tests revealed it takes one missile to finish off any tank. Here is your mathematical expectation, Omega=1. One can only imagine the effect such a system can have on any tank force getting ready to deploy to the front line, considering the fact that CEP for this missile when launching to a maximum range of 100 kilometers is 50 centimeters, that is roughly 20 inches. With its speed of M=4+, good luck intercepting it. I am telling you, this signal processing thingy develops with an insane speed. Again, Real Revolution in Military Affairs as it unfolds in a front of our very own eyes. Can you imagine what is still in the secret labs or on drawing boards in Russia? We may only speculate. Ah, yes, Germes-A can also be installed on aircraft ranging from attack helicopters to attack fixed wing. It is already in service, was used in Syria, and, if that wasn't bad enough, this thing can shoot down aircraft. Can you imagine modernization potential for this weapon? 

Why Turkish SOM, which is a cruise missile--and you guessed it, subsonic--was bundled together with Germes beats me completely, two absolutely different weapons. Even Israeli "analog" is not even in the same league and, as you may have guessed it, subsonic. Speed decides the issue, range too, and the West has nothing comparable. I can only reiterate with quoting, again, Douglas Macgregor.

Ignoring this reality is the road to future defeats and American decline. It’s time to look beyond the stirring images of infantrymen storming machine-gun nests created by Hollywood and to see war for what it is and will be in the future: the ruthless extermination of the enemy with accurate, devastating firepower from the sea, from the air, from space and from mobile, armored firepower on land.   

Yep, a real war is not Hollywood and I don't think, in fact I am 100% positive, the United States (forget about pathetic Europe) is simply not ready and will not be for it and that is the danger, of which I speak for years. But this is a separate topic.       

And It Flies.

Frigate Admiral Gorshkov successfully launched hyper-sonic 3M22 Zircon missile from Barents Sea at the target at North Ural range. The missile flew over 500 kilometers (in Russian from TASS). I wrote so much about it that no matter what I write now--it all will be redundant. As was already stated, this year Zircon also will be launched from Kazan SSGN. 

Gorshkov. Courtesy of TASS.

I know there will be now very many incidents of a severe butt-hurt but we all have been warned in 2018 and in related news:

ДУШАНБЕ, 27 февраля. /ТАСС/. Авиаполк, дислоцированный в Канске Красноярского края, будет перевооружен на гиперзвуковые крылатые ракеты "Кинжал" до 2024 года. Об этом сообщил журналистам командующий войсками Центрального военного округа генерал-полковник Александр Лапин.

Translation: Krasnoyarsk (Kansk) air regiment will be fully equipped by Kinzhal hyper-sonic missiles by 2024. 

As you may have guessed already, those Kansk's MiG-31Ks (currently there are MiG-31BMs serving there) with Kinzhals could easily be deployed to forward Russia's Pacific Coast airfields (there is only 2,000 miles, as crow flies, between Krasnoyarsk and Vladivostok) and you know what that means. As I already stated many times--naval warfare as we know it is over. It was for some time already, but this time it is official.    

It Is Coming And It Is Near.

From the site of Russian Ministry of Defense:

Сегодня в Беломорскую военно-морскую базу Северного флота прибыл головной фрегат проекта 22350 «Адмирал Флота Советского Союза Горшков». В ближайшее время в Северодвинске корабль пройдёт подготовку к испытаниям новых видов вооружения и выйдет в Белое море для проведения испытательных стрельб.

Translation: The Frigate of project 22350 "Admiral of the Fleet of the Soviet Union Gorshkov" arrived to the Belomor (White Sea) naval base of the Northern Fleet. In the nearest future, in Severodvinsk, the ship will prepare for the tests of the new types of weapons and will sail to the White Sea for test launches.  

One doesn't have to be a Ph.D to figure this out--3M22 Zircon is obviously ready for fleet trials. This is a new page in warfare which is being turned as I type this.  I cannot stress enough the importance of this event. The whole military-intelligence world is now in a state of excitement (not to mentions vast armies of fan-boys and armchair strategists, such as myself) and anticipation. 1000+ kilometer range hyper-sonic anti-shipping missile launched from such platform as Russia's newest frigates of Gorshkov-class is a radical game changer in naval warfare. I touched upon some very basic salvo equations in my latest book when writing about this weapon, I may need to do a more thorough explanation with more (I will try to simplify it) combat math. MoD however, made a hilarious typo in this press-release. 

Gorshkov

Now, after yesterday's meeting of Russia's Security Council and Patrushev's cryptic words about "changes in Russian military doctrine if necessary" (in Russian), one is forced to ask: WHAT ELSE is coming?   

Getting To The (Intermediate) Finish Line.

As was expected it was confirmed today about Zircon:

Trials of launching a missile from a naval vessel are planned to start at the end of the year. The Admiral Gorshkov-class frigate, also known as Project 22350, from the Northern Fleet will be used," the source said adding that earlier trials included launching Zircon missiles from land.

The sobbing of Russian old-fashioned navalists and other missile age and Augmented Salvo Equations denialists can be heard all over the place, but if Kinzhal closed off Russia's littoral and near (and even some remote) sea zones, deployment of 1000+ kilometer range Zircon on ocean-going ships and, consequently, submarines is a whole other story altogether. It ends modern naval warfare as we know it. So, what's next? An operational singularity until some form of more-or-less effective counter will be developed and that means a very long time. I stress again, sticking lasers on ships is not going to do it for a number of huge technological reasons which must be addressed before any serious talk about lasers as effective weapon begins.

So, for US Navy the only way is to get on with own hyper-sonic anti-shipping weapons. How far behind the US is in this race? Who knows, some people say 10-15 years, which in modern times is a hugely long time, once one considers the dynamics of military-technological developments. The key factor, however, for the US is not R&D, it is institutional inertia and gridlock which continues to prevent the US Navy from actually facing reality and forces it to remain, despite all public invocations of Distributed Lethality, a solidly carrier-centric navy with no real prospects for change which is long overdue. Remember this, always:

They are easy to remember and calculate. It is a primer for understanding a ruthless dynamic of modern warfare which removed already old delusions of a dying empire about warfare it thought it could wage with impunity. 

It’s time to look beyond the stirring images of infantrymen storming machine-gun nests created by Hollywood and to see war for what it is and will be in the future: the ruthless extermination of the enemy with accurate, devastating firepower from the sea, from the air, from space and from mobile, armored firepower on land.

I guess, the future has arrived already and don't tell me that I didn't warn about it.