France Has Been Warned...

First Petr Tolstoy, now no less than Mr. Nebenzya:

UN, March 22 — RIA Novosti. Paris should keep in mind that Moscow will consider the French military in Ukraine as a priority target, Russia's permanent representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, said at a meeting of the Security Council. "Planning to send regular troops (to Ukraine. — Ed. An important thing Paris should remember is that they will be seen as a legitimate and even priority target for our army," he stressed.

It is especially funny (for Russians) when receiving these contradicting messages, first from a collection of petulant children in Paris and then from the Big Boss: 

US officials have repeatedly warned Ukrainian military commanders that their attacks on Russian oil infrastructure could trigger global energy price hikes, the Financial Times revealed on Friday. Washington is reportedly worried that this could threaten Joe Biden’s re-election bid. The White House has “grown increasingly frustrated by brazen Ukrainian drone attacks” on Russian refineries, terminals and other oil infrastructure, the British newspaper quoted one of its sources as saying. Washington’s objections come months before a presidential election in the US, where “Biden faces a tough re-election battle this year with petrol prices on the rise, increasing almost 15% this year,” the newspaper noted.

Good Lord! Does Washington establishment know anything beyond elections? Of course, not. They do not have even basic skills in governing, have zero understanding of war, but they sure as hell know how run election campaigns, which is a euphemism to BSing the public into a complete cognitive dissonance and then into stupor, that it loses any resistance to manipulation. And this is not the end of it for the West. A lot of opinions are flying today about Europeans willing to send troops to 404, the main problem which is excluded from the discussion, however, is WHAT troops can, say, France, Poland and Netherlands send to 404? And the issue is not just sending troops there--let's imagine, for the sake of argument, that Paris somehow is able to put together up to 100,000 troops--how are they going to sustain them? Remember Libya? France and UK ran out of precision-guided munitions in three days. And, of course, one needs to feed and replenish ammo stocks for these troops--good luck with that. 

Now, for those who are getting over-excited about prospects of a nuclear war once NATO "official" forces get their asses kicked, which is a probability approaching one (100%), the US will not get involved--in fact, the United States desires  nothing more than seeing a lovely war in Europe, while staying behind Atlantic "ocean wall". Of course, US troops in Europe will be annihilated if it escalates, but by now it is just the matter of speculation. At this stage I am getting sick and tired of European excuses about "we didn't elect" Macron, Scholtz, Meloni et al. Enough, you did elect them, unlike 2020 elections in the US, Macron's victory over Le Pen was a landslide--you cannot fake such a massive gap in elections. Germans tolerated insidious economic and cultural suicide by Merkel regime, which is also responsible for wrecking much of the European economy, as long as Germany lived relatively well--this time is over. There is always a hell to pay for our sins on a global, as opposed to personal, scale. This revelation:

”Nothing terrifies a sitting American president more than a surge in pump prices during an election year,” former White House energy adviser Bob McNally told the FT.

should tell Europeans, granted they even comprehend ramifications, that: 

And don't tell me that I didn't warn you all...

In related news, Victor Orban congratulated Vladimir Putin with reelection and stressed Hungary's desire to increase cooperation with Russia (In Russian). You see how it works between normal people? 

No Shit, "Geniuses".

You all know my attitude towards Western "analytics" in both military and economy, I make it patently clear all the time. Here is another case of Duh!

Amid an exodus of Western European and U.S. companies from Russia, Chinese businesses are seeking to take their place, Bloomberg reported this week, citing unnamed sources in the know.  It was only a matter of time, really. Nature abhors a vacuum, and so does business. Chinese business, in addition to this, is quite pragmatic, unlike its Western counterparts and competitors. So, once BP, Shell, and pretty much everyone but French TotalEnergies left Russia in the wake of the Ukraine crisis, Chinese energy firms owned by the government started considering moving in.

I spoke about this today too. Sadly, it seems MacDonald's decided to reverse its earlier decision to move out of Russia and Russians are now stuck with this obesity-inducing institution. But there is a logic in MacDonald's decision--move out of Russia, scores of others are already waiting in the wings to take your place. Both Russian and international. Only people who haven't been to Russia or know literally nothing about her--primarily Western journos and "intelligence" community--they should understand that neither China, nor Turkey, not India are letting this huge lucrative market to slip through their hands. Moreover, China, while leading the world in some civil technologies, is staying with Russia to also "harvest" some other Russian technologies, including extraction and aerospace among many others, where Russia leads the world. 

And then, of course, there is energy, agriculture, tourism (enter Turkey) and some major civil construction projects. Most Westerners still cannot grasp that the edifice of Western "prosperity" has disintegrated, and that the combined West long ago stopped being this "It" thing in most fields. As the example of France shows, some begin to grasp it. Here is some news (I spoke about it today) from Germany:

DUESSELDORF, March 10 (Reuters) - A spike in electricity prices has forced small German steelmaker Lech-Stahlwerke to halt production at its plant in Bavaria, the German state's only steel works, a company spokesperson said on Thursday. "We are shutting down production on a daily basis," the spokesperson said, adding that power price developments would be closely watched to make short-term adjustments. "Production is not economically viable."

Well, this is just the start. I have a "secret" to divulge--most of Europe's economy is not economically viable, because it is unsustainable in general and Russia DOES NOT depend on EU anymore. Especially with many others gladly trading with Russia, while the combined West literally goes to hell with increasing speed. Even my beloved Pink Floyd (great musicians, ignorant politicians) decided

Pink Floyd guitarist David Gilmour announced that all of his solo music, as well as all of the progressive rock band’s pre-1987 catalog, will be pulled from streaming services in Russia and Belarus on Friday over the conflict in Ukraine. “To stand with the world in strongly condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the works of Pink Floyd, from 1987 onwards, and all of David Gilmour’s solo recordings are being removed from all digital music providers in Russia and Belarus from today,” said a statement posted on the band’s Twitter account. The US and most of its allies have denounced the Russian offensive, enacting widespread economic sanctions against Russia. Many international organizations and private businesses followed suit, banning Russian athletes, canceling cultural events and ceasing cooperation.

It is always regrettable when people of art get involved in politics while having zero background in politics related fields, but Pink Floyd were first, while I hoped to see U2 relieving Russia of their over-hyped and grossly overrated music. Well, what can I say, there is nothing more ironic than multi-millionaires (I believe Pink Floyd's catalogue is worth many billions) trying to be righteous. What combined West doesn't get yet is that it is over for it. No, make no mistake, financial markets will continue to function, stocks will trade, somebody will even make some small fortunes playing with currency, but one fact remains unchanged--Europe will (it is already in progress) lose its manufacturing industries due to competition and high energy costs and this is not changing. The Brave New World is upon us and those in the West who didn't understand it will feel it soon or, as this hapless steel company from Germany found out--you cannot cheat nature and laws of physics. You simply can not, no matter how you try. 

I will address the issue of an abject failure of the main masturbation subject for fanboys and military porn lovers--Ukie UAVs--in a dense air defense environment and with fully operational air force later. Many people do not understand that this was predicted and I wrote extensively on this issue, such as this, a year ago: 

As for Turkish dramatically overrated UAVs' operations against what turned out to be a grossly outdated and untrained Artsakh air defense, and Turkey having, in reality, a rather mediocre military force when faced with determined and experienced enemy--Turkish operations' collapse in Idlib in 2020 once Syrians pulled in their good ol' Osas and Buks is an exhibit A of Turkey's military limitations. 

In general, it will be fascinating to discuss how ignorant militarily people are when buy into military porn not understanding what is behind all this "shiny" military technology operationally. As Andrey Raevsky pointed my attention today to this link (found out at Colonel Cassad's site) with a pseudo-military psychobabble by some Ben Connable:

Updated: Russian Occupation of Ukraine Troop-to-Task Estimate

I begin to wonder why this Boris Rozhin posts this amateur BS on his site, but then again, I am on record--the guy who promoted mentally unstable Girkin (Strelkov) and never served a day as a cadre officer (in fact, he never served at all), guess from three times why I never defer to him or his resource. But on the subject matter of article--this "professor" of security studies better learn the actual situation on the ground in 404 and stop applying irrelevant lessons from the 20th century. Not to mention the main fact of Russia having no intentions of occupying Ukraine, not to mention the fact of inevitable formation of militias in liberated areas which will deal with counter-insurgency primarily. But that is just a side note. But in the end, have a nice weekend and partake in a lighter side of war:

No need to know Russian. There is a lot of really good stuff being posted nowadays on this issue. Enjoy while you can, Orwellian reality is upon us.

It Hurts Where It Matters The Most. Wealth.

Of course, money are important as are the prices. They are the reflection of actual economy, but the average Western "economist" today is a person who is removed from actual economy very far. Suffice it to say that modern managerial class in the West understands only the language of stocks, capitalization, futures and trades. They DO NOT understand how economy works. How else can you explain Europe's and, to a somewhat lesser degree, America's ongoing economic suicide. 

European power prices soared to records after Electricite de France SA said two nuclear reactors will stop unexpectedly and two will have prolonged halts -- just as the continent heads for a cold snap with already depleted gas inventories. German electricity for next year jumped more than 10% as EDF is set to shutter two reactors at its Chooz nuclear plant this week and extend halts of two units at its Civaux site until spring after agreeing with the safety regulator to replace faulty pipes. The facilities make up almost 10% of the French nuclear capacity.  The shutdowns will make the market even more jittery just as temperatures are set to plunge way below average for much of the continent. Peak demand in France alone is set to jump 7% to above 80 gigawatts next week, according to a Bloomberg model.  “The market is already very nervous and extremely sensitive, and the timing of this info could not have been much worse for market participants hoping for a drop in power prices,” said Bo Palmgren, chief operating officer at MFT Energy, a trading company is Aarhus, Denmark. 

Well, Russia did warn about this long time ago, nobody listened. Poland wanted "market" to decide prices on energy, as a result we have what Poland wanted--Gazprom laughing all the way to the bank because of the spot pricing, instead of the long term contracts with fixed price. Not that there is no a downside to this for Gazprom, because, obviously, the pricing not just squeezes, it kills EU customers. But for now, Gazprom already has pretty much returned its investment into the NS2 and really doesn't care what happens to NS2 at this point.

Berlin, December 15 - Neftegaz.RU. The price of natural gas in Europe on Tuesday rose to $1,400 per 1,000 m³ after Germany said Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline could not be greenlighted for launch, citing rising tensions on the Ukrainian border, RT has reported. The price of January futures on the TTF hub in the Netherlands rose 5.5% to $1,428 per 1,000 m³ at 7:04am GMT, or $138 per megawatt-hour in household terms, according to data from the Intercontinental Exchange. A day earlier, gas prices in Europe jumped around 10% after German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Russia’s newly constructed Nord Stream 2 pipeline could not be put in operation because it did not meet the requirements of EU energy law. 

To understand the scale of a calamity in Europe it is enough to look at this graph. 

So it is six and a half times growth of prices. As popular truism states--think twice what you wish for, your wish may come true. But in all this, well, let's call it for what it is--energy catastrophe in EU--there is one aspect which drives all those Western "analysts" from economy to geopolitics completely mad, in fact makes them desperate. It is the fact that it is not them but Russia which makes a shitload of money, which not only rubs the salt on the wounded egos of all those "strategists" and "analysts", but for geopolitical "analysts" complicates their openly anti-Russian, if not Russophobic, matters even more. That all means more money in Russian budget for social, industrial and military programs and the desperation is palpable. It manifests itself with a hysteria in the top political echelons of EU-NATO capitals, such as this legislature to declare Russia a "state sponsor of terrorism", to hollow promises by Stoltenberg that:

NATO expansion will continue whether Russia likes it or not, the US led bloc's Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has declared, insisting that despite Moscow’s objections, his organization does not pose a threat.  

At this stage one begins to understand why they fail all the time. I speak about it in my latest video:

But it is just a part of the answer why there are so many stupid people in West's "elites". One of the explanation is (which I repeat ad nauseam) the fact that many of them really bought into their own BS and sincerely believe that they are the best thing ever in the whole universe. Others, obviously are pushing their agenda, but because they are products of primarily humanities programs, especially political science, they have zero understanding of the world outside beyond white board theories and abstract models which do not work. Come on, let's face it--Bill Gates has no formal education, he dropped out of the second year of university and only sublime and complete idiots believe that he is a "self-made" billionaire. Some people believe that Elon Musk is an engineer, which he is not. He has B.S. degree (double major) in "economics and physics", I call it BS. It is NOT an engineering degree. But people want to believe. 

It is their right to believe that this guy with the undergraduate degree with double major in economics and physics is an engineer and these are not real (some of them really good) former and present NASA engineers with graduate and post-graduate degrees, certificates and experiences, who create those flying objects of SpaceX.  

In an affront to the West, Gazprom now got to another domestic project. It is not enough for Gazprom to have already highest skyscraper in Europe as its corporate office--a truly magnificent Lakhta Center.

 

Gazprom now works on the second highest tower in the world--Lakhta Center-2.

I am in no position to discuss failures or advantages of this new giant, but I would say that for all my lack of appreciation for skyscrapers, I would rather be in Lakhta-2 in dazzling St. Petersburg than in Burj Khalifa in the middle of a desert. But I totally get how these powerful symbols of wealth and power of Russia can drive many in the West completely nuts. I know for a fact what a visit to modern Moscow or St. Petersburg can do to many Westerners who get their news from CNN and Wall Street Journal. What many of them do not understand is that hydrocarbon business is increasingly not that crucial for Russian economy as it was even 10 years ago. But then again--you cannot explain it to them, they want to believe that they are the best, and the smartest, and the wealthiest, and the mightiest of them all. Right. Sour grapes and butt-hurt, anyone?