Showing posts with label Western Ukraine. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Western Ukraine. Show all posts

Sunday, May 22, 2022

This Is Seriously Fuc... I Mean Funny))

In the same time, in some sense, it is a very Polish thing to do:

Norway should share the “excess” profits it’s been making as oil and gas prices soar amid the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said at the National Youth Dialogue Congress on Saturday. “But should we be paying Norway gigantic money for gas – four or five times more than we paid a year ago? This is sick,” he said, claiming that the excess of the annual average gas and oil profit “will exceed €100 billion” this year for a country of five million people like Norway. “They should share these excess profits. It’s not normal, it’s unjust. This is an indirect preying on the war started by Putin,” the PM said. Morawiecki also urged young Poles to go and shame their Norwegian “friends” over the fat gas profits online to push the country into sharing the wealth.

Well, if my Alzheimer doesn't fail me, it was namely Poland who wanted spot prices and "market" to define them. Always think twice what you wish for, because those wishes may come true. Gazprom gladly obliged and Poland, unlike it is the case with Hungary, now should pay a fair price, the way market found it. But this Morawiecki's idea is down right bizarre. 

“Write to your young friends in Norway,” he said. “They should share it immediately,” Morawiecki stated, adding that it shouldn’t necessarily be shared with Poland, but with Ukraine.

Well, here is everything you need to know about present day Poland. You see, and I did elaborate on this issue in my videos on operation and operational planning, when commenting on Australian Defense Ministry's Science and Technology Board PPP:

Right, see the first bullet-point: determine the desired end-state with constituent criteria and associated conditions. This is an excellent operational truism which is applicable across the whole spectrum of human activity and especially so in the matters of macro economy, state level governance, diplomacy and geopolitics. Evidently, Morawiecki never heard of those things, because not only he failed to calculate anything in the immediate future but Poland was warned by... Russia that her wishes, when come true, will cost her. Now, Norwegian children should suffer. Not cool, Morawiecki, not cool. Norway plays, as does Russia, in full accordance to energy market rules. 

Meanwhile, I begin to elaborate in very small portions about my technical disagreement with Pepe regarding 404 being able to raise any army in the Western Ukraine. Today is a small piece of reasons:

1. 404 is now in Nth mobilization and the quality of personnel, many of them from Western Ukraine declined dramatically, because best of the best have been physically annihilated and, after two major waves of immigration--one to Russia, but even larger stream to Europe, Ukraine simply doesn't have mobilization base enough to assemble, let alone arm, any serious military force. Hence Zelensky's obvious lie about the size of VSU. But even if to assume that he doesn't lie, one has to admit Russian, dramatically numerically inferior, forces are doing a very good job of annihilating the Ukrainian military. Otherwise, how can one explain a huge number of those young men from Western Ukraine who are flooding Europe today and are in no hurry to be sent to the front. Just think about it:

So, considering realistic population of Ukraine numbering now 25-27 million, with 7 million (much less now) living in the Western Ukraine, unless one wants to draft 12-13 year boys (I wouldn't put this past Kiev regime), the prospects of raising a proper, combat capable that is, new army are rather bleak. 

2. Let's not forget also that we live in 2022 and this is how new VSU recruits get acquainted with modern war precisely in the areas (this one is in Desna North of Kiev) where many loyalists reside. These are Desna barracks with very little left of new recruits and this was just a couple-three 3M14 Kalibrs a couple of days ago.

And, of course, who can forget Yavorsky barracks filled with all those "fighters" from around the world who came to hunt themselves some Rooskies. Their "residence", which was blown to smithereens together with hundreds of them, was precisely in the Western Ukraine. 

So, just these two, out of many purely technical considerations, are already enough to start questioning REAL mobilization and military-industrial capabilities of 404, which were degraded dramatically. But knowing Poland, one has to keep an eye on Warsaw's actions, but then again, there is a reason Russia uses only small percentage of her capabilities in Ukraine and keeps most of them in reserve. Just in case Poland decides to do stupid things, which, judging by Morawecki's escapade towards Norway, tells us that nothing could be excluded when speaking about Warsaw and its curators in D.C.

Tuesday, March 22, 2022

About Rumors, Which May Not Be Rumors...

... at all.  I will remind you one thing I wrote last year, while demolishing Valdai Club Timofeev's (lack of) military expertise who, as well as other native Russian "experts" of this kind, RT loves to invite to spread ignorance around. Here is this "thing":

In fact, I am on record about Polish (and other East European) aspirations towards Western Ukraine for years.  In the end, there are Hungarians and Rusins who already beg Victor Orban for protection for more than a year, there is Bukovina where Romania may get some satisfaction from the coming "loss" of Moldavia. So, RT reports:

Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Irina Vereshchuk has questioned, what she has described as, Hungary’s “pro-Russian” rhetoric, suggesting that the desire for “cheap Russian gas” or even a potential land grab could be behind Budapest’s policy over the conflict between Moscow and Kiev. In a lengthy Facebook post, the official claimed that “not even all Russian satellites from the former Soviet Union behave the way Hungary’s authorities do.” She said that Hungary does not support sanctions against Russia, refuses to provide Ukraine with weapons, and even “does not allow weapons from other countries to pass via their territory.” “In fact, they say ‘no’ to everything. A bit more – and Budapest's official rhetoric will be totally pro-Russian. What is this? Want some cheap Russian gas? Or maybe want our Transcarpathia?” Vereshchuk wrote before calling on Budapest to “join the civilized world” and “not to repeat the mistakes of World War II when Hungary made a wrong choice.”

Well, I think it is Ukraine which made a wrong choice, not Hungary who has been keeping much of its army near Ukrainian border for a while. And it goes without saying that Poles remember the original name of the Polish city currently known as Lvov, and it is Lemberg or Lwow.  So, Alex Christoforou makes some announcements (with caveat, obviously) today about this Polish thing.

But Russians have been discussing the possibility of Polish "peace-keeping" (meaning the annexation of what is effectively historic Polish lands) for a while. Ruslan Ostashko altogether states that Biden's upcoming visit to Poland IS about partition of Ukraine, with Poland moving into the Western Ukraine (in Russian). As I, among many, state non-stop (the latest being yesterday when talking to Piero), there is a feeling around that Kremlin itself still contemplates what to do with Banderland (West Ukraine) because Russia doesn't want to get those people on her balance and partition of that land is by far not the worst scenario for Russia. 

As they say, there is no smoke without fire, and I think the probability of Poland getting in is far from trivial. Also, circulation of such let's call them, for now, rumors has a significant military aspect behind them, because Polish Armed Forces are by far not the Russian Army and they follow operation Z very attentively calculating required force and I am sure behind closed doors Polish military people are pretty happy seeing reports of annihilation of large VSU forces, but especially those of Neo-Nazi formations, such as Azov "battalion", who have roots in the Western Ukraine. The more "banderistas" Russians bury, the easier it will be for Polish "peace keepers" to deal with whatever resistance they may encounter in and around Lwow. 

In fact, the whole logic of the conflict dictates these events, including possible partition of what's will be left of Ukraine. In related news, while Western military "experts" (such as this "expert") from NYT continue to spew headlines like this:

I can only imagine the wowser which comes after reading on operations of Russia's AD over such a vast theater once reports will be done after things calm down somewhat. It is something we never saw before. That will rub a lot of salt into already gaping wounds of many Western military "experts". Per Western media low-lives, they have Pulitzers to console themselves for spreading war crimes propaganda and sophomoric lies.