Brilliant Michael Brenner...

... on the history of Palestine and starting at 11:00 he hits the nail on the head of America's evangelicals obsessed with Israel and Jews in Holy Land--in other words, America's so called Christian Zionism. 

The damage evangelicals did to America is immense, and now they should see the results of their fanatical Zionism each day--what now has become an all out genocide of Palestinian population in Gaza. But then again, these are Christians in name only--in reality they are Old Testament eschatological death cult. 

As Brenner speaks bluntly--the West is in the state of a collective psychopathology. Every single tenet of morality, right and wrong universal for much of the world is being annihilated through mass hysteria. 

Psychopaths in Newsweek salivate on what amounts to nothing special, pretty regular yield nuclear weapon, but this neocon rag gets high just talking about it. 

A US nuclear bomb planned for development has the potential to level central Moscow and kill more than 300,000 of its 13 million inhabitants, Newsweek magazine reported on Friday, citing a simulation created through the online tool Nukemap. The Pentagon announced late last month that it would seek to make a new variant of the B61 nuclear gravity bomb – the B61-13 – pending authorization by Congress. The weapon would have an estimated 360-kiloton yield, which is 24 times more powerful than the one dropped on Hiroshima during World War II.

So, if Pentagon thinks that it can use gravity bombs on Moscow, they surely have to take basic classes on modern air defenses. Russians will respond with a single (Russia has more) RS-28 Sarmat with 16 hyper-sonic Avangards with up to 2 megatons yield. A single Avangard will be enough to flatten Manhattan. Unlike the carriers of gravity bombs, one cannot intercept Avangard. So, here we have essentially WW II technology with nuclear ordnance trying to announce how it can do against the technology of the XXI century. It is madness, the fanatical zeal which is being infused into combined West while it collapses. Here is one such specimen:

Israeli Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu has suggested that his country could launch a nuclear strike on Gaza. The controversial remarks caused outrage across the Israeli government, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suspending Eliyahu indefinitely. During an interview on Sunday with Radio Kol Berama, Eliyahu, who is a member of the far-right Otzma Yehudit party, was asked if Israel could drop an atomic bomb on the Palestinian enclave. The minister replied that “this is one of the possibilities.”

Meanwhile in backward Russia:

Emperor Alexander III SSBN is getting ready to join the fleet. It is the seventh in Borei-class strategic missile submarines and the fouth of Borei-A (pr. 955A) SSBNs. Five more of these stat-of-the-art subs to go. As Nikolai Patrushev stressed:

Russia has secured an edge over its rivals in the realm of nuclear weapons, Nikolay Patrushev, secretary of the country’s Security Council, has said. He warned earlier this year that while Moscow had never used its military advantage to intimidate other countries, it could annihilate any foe if its very existence was at stake. Speaking at the ‘Znanie’ (Knowledge) education marathon in Moscow, Patrushev stated that “for the first time in the history of the existence of nuclear missile weapons, our country is ahead of its competitors in this domain.” He added that Russia now has “unique strategic weapons, including hypersonic ones” in its arsenal. According to Patrushev, these strategic systems “will guarantee Russia’s security for many decades.”

This deterrent and the most advanced conventional forces are two required elements for keeping bat shit crazy fanatics in the West in check. 

Per recent attack and "sunk" ship (corvette)--as was the case with "destroyed" submarine recently, one of the corvettes which are being built (in other words, non-functional ship) at Kerch shipbuilding plant was damaged (in Russian). Some fragments of one of the shot down Stormshadow/Scalp missile also fell into the dry dock--no damage, no casualties. 13 out 15 missiles shot down, 13/15=87% combat effectiveness of the Air Defense in the area. It will get even better. I wonder how French or British will do if 15 Kinzhals or even 3M14s would fly into Saint Nazaire or Govan (Scotland)? We all know that all of them will reach targets. So, here is your primer for Sunday.

Incomparable Michael Brenner...

... writes a superb piece: US Can't Deal With Defeat. In which he deconstructs the whole, so called, "strategy": 

A society represented by an entire political class that is not sobered by that prospect rightly can be judged as providing prime facie evidence of being collectively unhinged. Amnesia may serve the purpose of sparing our political elites, and the American populace at large, the acute discomfort of acknowledging mistakes and defeat. However, that success is not matched by an analogous process of memory erasure in other places.The U.S. was fortunate, in the case of Vietnam, that the United States’ dominant position in the world outside of the Soviet Bloc and the PRC allowed it to maintain respect, status and influence.

Things have now changed, though. The U.S. relative strength in all domains is weaker, strong centrifugal forces around the globe are producing a dispersion of power, will and outlook among other states. The BRICs phenomenon is the concrete embodiment of that reality. Hence, the prerogatives of the United States are narrowing, its ability to shape the global system in conformity with its ideas and interests are under mounting challenge, and premiums are being placed on diplomacy of an order that seems beyond its present aptitudes. The U.S. is confounded.

Read the whole thing, it is superb and is one of those flames of academic and human brilliance which manifests itself not unlike a separate piece of charcoal which continues to burn bright in the pile of spent ashes after the steaks have been grilled and guests left the backyard to continue the conversation and eating in the dining room inside the house.

Couple of Points.

First point is a squealing of Turkish assets once their balls are placed in the vice of real geopolitics and real military power. As Azeri news agency Haqqin (Time) reports: 

Председатель партии «Туран» Джахандар Байоглу призвал отстранить от власти в Азербайджане всех пророссийских чиновников. По его словам, страна должна пойти на этот шаг, чтобы обезопасить себя от внешнего влияния. Политик подчеркнул, что необходимо взять под контроль и отстранить от руководства всех пророссийских чиновников, депутатов и руководителей общественных организаций. Председатель партии призвал главу государства распустить Милли Меджлис и начать новые социально-экономические реформы. Байоглу считает, что если руководство страны не пойдет на эти решительные шаги, то в Азербайджане могут повториться события, которые происходят в Казахстане. Он добавил, что пророссийские силы просочились в структуры МВД, СГБ и Минобороны. Политик также призвал как можно скорее завершить переход азербайджанской армии на модель турецкой армии.

Translation: The chairman of the Turan party, Jahandar Bayoglu, called for the removal of all pro-Russian officials from power in Azerbaijan. According to him, the country should take this step in order to protect itself from external influences. The politician stressed that it is necessary to take control and remove from the leadership of all pro-Russian officials, deputies and heads of public organizations. The party chairman called on the head of state to dissolve the Milli Mejlis and start new socio-economic reforms. Bayoglu believes that if the country's leadership does not take these decisive steps, then the events that are taking place in Kazakhstan may repeat in Azerbaijan. He added that pro-Russian forces have infiltrated the structures of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the State Security Service and the Ministry of Defense. The politician also called for the completion of the transition of the Azerbaijani army to the model of the Turkish army as soon as possible.

Aw, how cute)) I have news for this Turan dude, the first pro-Russian official in Azerbaijan is its President Ilham Aliev who is a good friend of Vladimir Putin and, unlike Erdogan, is extremely well-educated and cultured man who understands the real score. And there is a lot to this score what Bayoglu doesn't understand precisely because he is the leader of Turan party. I will omit here elaboration of a fallacy of pan-Turkism but, of course, events in Kazakhstan just all but killed this idea in every practical sense and it is not only Ankara which cries now, there are very many people in London who, yet again, discovered that contrived geopolitical concepts mean very little if you are not a superpower. UK is NOT a superpower, it is a second rate power which still suffers from phantom pains of once greatness which is no more. They better learn and internalize this fact both at Downing Street 10 and at Hanslope Park. The sun has set on your empire, just live with it. 

The second point is Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov stating today: 

"Так что НАТО надо собирать манатки и отправляться на рубежи 1997 года". 

Translation: NATO has to pack up its things and move back to the borders of 1997.  

I know, it hurts, there will be (already, actually) many pompous statements from the likes of Tony Blinken or Jens Stoltenberg but, thanks to Bernhard of Moon of Alabama who posted brilliant Michael Brenner's piece on US foreign policy, it is totally warranted to present what one of very few true American foreign policy experts writes about the mental state of US "elites". 

U.S. engagements in the world over the past 20 years reveal a grim record of failed ventures. Most have been caused by unrealistic goals, blinkered views of the field of action, overweening pride, an ignorance of foreign places and their history, and an unseemly readiness to take complacent comfort in fantasy worlds that exist only in its own imagination. In short, American foreign policy has been misguided – badly and consistently misguided. The inevitable frustrations and failures owe equally to sheer incompetence. An endless string of errors – diplomatic, military and political – is as difficult for the nation to reconcile with its ‘can-do’ self-image as is the admission of the glaring discrepancy between the belief in the country’s providential mission and its increasingly evident ordinariness. 

This is another salient point Brenner makes: 

Americanism provides a Unified Field Theory of self-identity, collective enterprise, and the Republic’s enduring meaning. When one element is felt to be in jeopardy, the integrity of the whole edifice becomes vulnerable. In the past, American mythology energized the country in ways that helped it to thrive. Today, it is a dangerous hallucinogen that traps Americans in a time warp more and more distant from reality. There is a muted reflection of this strained condition in the evident truth that Americans have become an insecure people. They grow increasingly anxious about who they are, what they are worth and what life will be like down the road. This is an individual and collective phenomenon. They are related insofar as self-identity and self-esteem are bound up with the civic religion of Americanism. To a considerable degree, it’s been like this since the very beginning. A country that was “born against history” had no past to define and shape the present. A country that was born against tradition had no rooted and common sense of meaning and value that cut deeply into the national psyche. A country that was born against inherited place and position left each individual at once free to acquire status and obliged to do so for insignia of rank were few.

This is an excellent definition of the underlying causes for the American "exceptionlaism" which is an obverse side of insecurity. I write about it non-stop for decades, really. My first book is almost entirely built around this premise. Reality, like gravity, is a bitch--no number of narratives by ignorant and uneducated American journos can obfuscate it without creation of a serious nation-wide cognitive dissonance which inevitably translated into the psychological, if not psychiatric, disorders on a massive scale. Reality will inevitably bite into one's ass no matter how one tries to construct own alternative "reality". Will see how it will go in Geneva tomorrow but Ryabkov was actually very upbeat today about preliminary talks, meaning dinner, (in Russian). We'll see. Geneva is just a start, Russia is not interested in humiliating the US at this stage (the US does a swell job on its own) and still leaves an honorable, face-saving exit for the US, which, in the end could be presented as a triumph of common sense and superpowers working together. For the US internally it could play well against the background of upcoming mid-terms and a serious economic downturn. 

If not, well--chose on your own pawns which will be removed form the "chess board" by Russia and what new weapon systems will be announced and deployed without leaving NATO any option but to capitulate. But that is the food for thought for tomorrow. This is just a part of the VTA's IL-76s yesterday, at some point of time during the day, in Alma-Ata airport alone. 

As you all know VTA was also transporting ODKB forces to other Kazakh cities, so make your own conclusions on Russia's air mobility capability. Giant AN-124s are not even shown here, while they were also actively involved in deployment of ODKB forces.

224th Flight Detachment of Russian Defense Ministry, which operates those giants, has 8 of them at its disposal. Single An-124 can, well, just get acquainted here with what cargo can a single 124 take on-board, and keep in mind that its can also take some number of paratroopers in its pressurized compartments. Most of VDV personnel is carried by IL-76s. Those who had to, they got the message.

Excellent Blitz-Inteview

By professor Michael Brenner posted by Strategic Culture Foundation.  The summary reads likes this: 

In a stark assessment of U.S. international policy and that of its allies, Professor Michael Brenner says there is an abject failure of political leadership and strategic thinking. This is clearly seen with regard to Washington’s persistent antagonism of China and its inability to conduct meaningful dialogue and diplomacy with Beijing for resolving major issues. That is also the case with regard to Europe’s frigid attitude towards Moscow. Such crass conduct of international relations is not only self-defeating for the United States and its Western allies, it is creating the dangerous conditions for fatal miscalculation leading to war. Brenner contends that the world might have to face the brink of destruction before some level of sanity prevails in Washington and other Western capitals. It is lamentable that the lack of strategic thinking and political leadership in the United States is driving the rest of the world to the abyss.

This Brenner's assessment is also very close to the main thrust of my writing for the last decade, especially highlighted in yellow, which is why deconstruction of a completely delusional American military exceptionalism is important, because America's political class' ideas about war are from the entertainment.  This is not to speak about the fact that the US is ungovernable at the present moment. As Brenner contends: 

Any ascription of a coherent strategic design to the Biden administration is misplaced. There clearly isn’t any. Second key point: Biden’s control over his national security team is tenuous.

Well, while we either suspected or do know this for a fact, this is hardly an uplifting contention. But there is one point over which I may have a slight disagreement with Brenner: Russia possesses both nuclear and, most importantly, conventional domination in her sphere of interests over the United States. April this year Russian military exercises in response to Ukraine's provocations are in the foundation of a new dynamics regarding, however mauled, Russian-American relations. Not all American generals and admirals are stupid, some do recognize what "miscalculation" may bring. Thankfully, military people of high public profile, be that Douglas Macgregor or Larry Wilkerson among many others, do speak not just in generalities but with actual numbers of casualties the United States will sustain in case of a war with Russia in the opening phase. They are catastrophic. 

The policy of provocations will continue however and it does present a degree of danger of an escalation, but then again, even Brenner admits it--most of it is just a hot air and rather feeble attempts at bullying. 

America’s military attache has been summoned to the Russian Defense Ministry to explain an “unprofessional” incident in which a US destroyer reportedly attempted to violate the country’s territorial waters, Moscow said on Friday.“The representative of the US Armed Forces was informed of the position of the Russian military in connection with an attempt by the US Navy destroyer Chafee to violate the state border of the Russian Federation in the Peter the Great Bay area on October 15,” the Defense Ministry said in a statement on Friday. The Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer belonging to the US Pacific Fleet attempted to cross into the Russian waters around 5pm local time on Friday, before it was forced off-course by the Russian Navy’s anti-submarine vessel Admiral Tributs.“After receiving the warning, the destroyer Chafee, instead of changing course to leave the closed area, raised its colored flags to indicate preparation for a helicopter to take off from the deck, which means it is impossible to change course and speed, and took action to violate the state border of the Russian Federation in the Peter the Great Bay,” the Russian Defense Ministry said earlier, describing the incident.The “unprofessional” actions of American sailors grossly violated the rules for preventing collisions at sea and the provisions of the Russian-American agreement on the prevention of incidents on the high seas and in the air, the US attache was informed. 

Same ol', same ol'. Let them play games. 

Been there, done that. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Russia merely doesn't interfere while the enemy commits suicide. In the end, nobody wants the whole thing to end with a bang, whimper will do just fine.    

For Those Who Care.

About a clusterfuck in Afghanistan, Bernhard of Moon of Alabama posted an excellent piece by Michael Brenner, who sums it up pretty nicely in the piece symptomatically titled: The Foreign Policy Borg And The Retreat From Afghanistan. I liked this introduction:

There are few things in this kaleidoscopic world of ours that we can count on – for predictability, for fixity of outlook, for unswerving resistance to the vicissitudes of life. The American foreign policy community is one of them. They reliably react to stunning events in the world with reiteration of what they have been saying for years and decades They do so in unison. They never admit error of analysis or of policy, they preserve a righteous tone, and they retain a permanent inventory of persons to scapegoat – and, equally important, those who are always exempt from blame. The Afghan debacle demonstrates, once again, how deeply entrenched this behavioral pattern is. It is self-evident, it is glaring, and it is a reason for both shame and for doubting the United States’ ability to conduct its external relations in a sober, reasonable manner.

Read the whole thing at MoA, it is worth your attention. I just want to add that a sober foreign policy by the US is impossible in principle within the existing framework of American statecraft, which doesn't understand war for what it is. It can't. But I didn't say anything here what I didn't say before. It is a cultural thing.